copyright © allyn & bacon 2002 world population growth

Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002

World Population Growth


Population Dynamics


Recall a Point Made by Malthus: Population always has the potential to increase more rapidly than the production of food supplies. Boserup’s Theory: Historically within human populations production tends to Expand to the level demanded by population

Population Dynamics

Population Growth: Birthrate minus mortality Population Pressure: The tendency for population levels to expand to the carrying capacity. This is often translated into social pressure to increase production Fertility Rate: Live Births per 1000 women aged 15-44 in a given year.

Birth Rate: The number of live births per thousand in a given year.

Fecundity: The physiological capacity to produce a live child.


Comparison of pelvic apertures in five primates


Human, Australopithecine, and Chimpanzee Birth Processes


Key Points of Natural Selection in The Human Life Cycle

Implantation of the Zygote ~ first three weeks Early development of the embryo ~ first

trimester Birth ~ infants Birth ~ mothers 14 ~ 30 years First two years ~ disease in infants Late Adulthood ~ cumulative disease load,

dental decay


Avenues of Pre-industrial Population Regulation

Care of infants and children– Heavy work loads and restricted diets

for pregnant women– Direct Abortion (universal phenomena)– Infanticide

• Indirect• Direct



Treatment of women and girls– Forced or incidental malnutrition– Polygyny– Surgical mutilation

Intensity and duration of breast-feeding

– Extended Amenorrhea due to breast feeding

– Lowered Fucundity



Frequency of, and prohibitions against, intercourse

– Social proscriptions against sexual intercourse

– Restrictions on the age of marriage


Important Factors Governing Fertility Rates Age at first menses

Age of marriage/sexual activity

Disease Load

Nutritional Health

Mortality


Foraging Reproduction

Moderate death and birth rates Value of children: moderate Birth control

• low fat diet for women• prolonged breastfeeding• induced abortion

Few reproduction specialists


Agricultural Reproduction

High growth rate Value of children: high Increased reliance on direct means of

birth control• herbs• induced abortion

Midwives, herbalists


Industrial Reproduction

Negative growth for industrialized countries

Value of children: mixed High growth in developing countries Birth control grounded in science

• in vitro fertilization

Highly developed reproduction specialists


Culture’s affect on Reproduction

Family traditions….

Government policies….

International organizations….

….influence:

• when to start having sex• how often• who with• how many children to have


450 plant species worldwide contain natural substances that can be used to control fertility

Religious, economic andsocial factors affect decisions to induce abortion

Fertility Control


Peas as Birth Control?

• Historically population growth in Tibet has been stable

• Tibetans subsisted on barley and peas

• When mice were fed a diet of 20% peas, litter sizes dropped by half

• When mice are fed a diet of 30% peas, they failed to reproduce at all


Culture and Death

Infanticide

The deliberate killing of an offspring

• due to child deformity or sickness• if child fails to meet parental expectation• because of poverty


Culture and Death

Suicide....

Catholicism

….is a sin

Buddhism

….has been used to make political statements

Asia and S Pacific

….is a noble act

Social changes, brought about by industrialization, are often not matched by people’s ability to attain new goals leading to high suicide rates (especially among youth).


Culture and Death

Spousal Abuse Warfare

– accounts for high proportion of male deaths in some horticultural societies

Ethnocide– destruction of a culture

Genocide– physical extermination of a cultural group


A.D.2000

A.D.1000

A.D.1

1000B.C.

2000B.C.

3000B.C.

4000B.C.

5000B.C.

6000B.C.

7000B.C.

1+ million years

8

7

6

5

2

1

4

3

OldStoneAge New Stone Age

BronzeAge

IronAge

MiddleAges

ModernAge

Black Death —The Plague

9

10

11

12

A.D.3000

A.D.4000

A.D.5000

18001900

1950

1975

2000

2100

Future

Billions

World Population Growth Through History

Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).


Number of years to add each billion (year)

Ninth

Eighth

Seventh

Sixth

Fifth

Fourth

Third

Second

First Billion All of Human History (1800)

123 (1930)

33 (1960)

14 (1974)

13 (1987)

12 (1999)

14 (2013)

15 (2028)

26 (2054)

World Population Growth, in Billions

Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision (medium scenario).


Population of the United States, by Age and Sex,

1950-2050 (millions)

male female

http://www.magnet.at/heilig/dto_new/ani_11.html


Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005 Millions

300 100 100 300300 200 100 0 100 200 300

Less Developed Regions

More Developed Regions

Male Female Male Female

80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 17-19 10-16

5-90-4

Age

Age Distribution of the World’s Population

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.


Desire for Smaller FamiliesWomen With Two Children Who Say They Want No More Children

Percent

22

13

52

29

50

2933

38

5960

Bangladesh Egypt Guatemala Kenya Zimbabwe

Late 1980s Late 1990s/Early 2000s

Source: ORC Macro, Demographic and Health Surveys, 1988-2000.


Diverging Trends in Fertility ReductionAverage number of children per woman

6.7

6.0

6.67.0

5.5

6.9

6.35.8

8.2

3.5

7.0

5.1

3.33.0

2.4 2.3 2.4

4.3

Bangla-desh

Egypt India Indo-nesia

Iran Nepal Pakistan Turkey Yemen

1950-1955 2000-2005



Billions

Growth in More, Less Developed Countries

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Less Developed Countries

More Developed Countries



© 2 0 0 3 P o p u la t io n R e fe re nc e B u re a u

D e c lin e o r G ro w th , 2 0 0 2 -2 0 2 5P e rc e n t

3

12

-17

-14

-8

6


Trends in Aging, by World RegionPopulation Ages 65 and Older

Percent

7

3

6 6

14

11

4

10 10

21

World Africa Asia Latin America/Caribbean

MoreDeveloped

Regions

2000 2025



Trends in Population Growth Worldwide

Population Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year Periods

7987

82 79 77 75 7369

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1980-1985

1985-1990

1990-1995

1995-2000

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015

2015-2020

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Net population added per year Annual population growth rate

Mill

ions

Per

cen

t in

crea

se p

er y

ear



30

15 17

55

47

37 38

75

60

53 54

84 83

41

75

World Africa Asia Latin America/Caribbean

MoreDeveloped

Regions

1950 2000 2030

Urban PopulationPercent

Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2001 Revision (medium scenario), 2002.

Trends in Urbanization, by Region


Number of Women 15 to 49Billions

0.62

0.86

1.31

1.75

1.972.05

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Women of Childbearing Age



U.S. Population Density per Square Mile

Regional HIV/AIDS statistics and features, end of 2002

* The proportion of adults (15 to 49 years of age) living with HIV/AIDS in 2002, using 2002 population numbers ** Hetero: heterosexual transmission – IDU: transmission through injecting drug use – MSM: sexual transmission among men who have sex with men

Sub-Saharan Africa

North Africa & Middle East

South and South-East Asia

East Asia & Pacific

Latin America

Caribbean

Eastern Europe & Central Asia

Western Europe

North America

Australia & New Zealand

TOTAL

late ’70searly ’80s

late ’80s

late ’80s

late ’80s



early ’90s




29.4 million

550 000

6.0 million

1.2 million

1.5 million

440 000

1.2 million

570 000

980 000

15 000

42 million

8.8%

0.3%

0.6%

0.1%

0.6%

2.4%

0.6%

0.3%

0.6%

0.1%

1.2%

58%

55%

36%

24%

30%

50%

27%

25%

20%

7%

50%

Hetero

Hetero, IDU

Hetero, IDU

IDU, Hetero, MSM

MSM, IDU, Hetero

Hetero, MSM

IDU

MSM, IDU

MSM, IDU, Hetero

MSM

Epidemic

started

Adults & childrenliving with HIV/AIDS

Adult prevalenc

erate *

% of HIV-positive

adults who are

women

Main mode(s) of transmission for those living with

HIV/AIDS **

Adults & children newly

infected with HIV

3.5 million

83 000

700 000

270 000

150 000

60 000

250 000

30 000

45 000

500

5 million

Adults and children estimated to be living Adults and children estimated to be living with HIV/AIDS as of end 2002with HIV/AIDS as of end 2002

Total: 42 million

Western Europe

570 000570 000North Africa & Middle East

550 000550 000Sub-Saharan

Africa

29.4 29.4 millionmillion


1.2 million1.2 million

South & South-East Asia

6 million6 million


15 00015 000

North America

980 000980 000Caribbean

440 000440 000

Latin America


East Asia & Pacific

1.2 million1.2 million

Estimated number of adults and childrenEstimated number of adults and childrennewly infected with HIV during 2002newly infected with HIV during 2002

Total: 5 million

Western Europe



Africa



250 000250 000East Asia & Pacific

270 000270 000South & South-East Asia

700 000700 000


500500

North America

45 00045 000Caribbean

60 00060 000

Latin America

150 000150 000

Estimated adult and child deaths Estimated adult and child deaths from HIV/AIDS during 2002from HIV/AIDS during 2002

Total: 3.1 million

Western Europe



Africa


Eastern Europe &Central Asia



440 000440 000


<100<100

North America


42 00042 000

Latin America

60 00060 000

Children Children (<15 years)(<15 years) estimated to be living estimated to be living with HIV/AIDS as of end 2002with HIV/AIDS as of end 2002

Western Europe


40 00040 000sub-Saharan

Africa


Eastern Europe &Central Asia



240 000240 000


< 200< 200

North America


20 00020 000

Latin America

45 00045 000

Total: 3.2 million

copyright © allyn & bacon 2002 world population growth

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