) 2011 KSU Journal of Social Sciences 8(1) 2011

79

K

Murat KARABULUT Dr., -Edebiyat Fak.,

et: kliklerinin

olmayan testler (Mann-

imin (trendin)

Anahtar Kelimeler: -Kendall,

trend, Kayseri

Precipitation and temperature trends in Kayseri

Abstract: Turkey is one of the sensitive regions to climate variation in the World. In this study, trends in precipitation and temperature at annual, seasonal and monthly time scales for the periods of 1960-2005 were examined for the Kayseri which is located in the Interior Anatolian region of Turkey. Non-parametric tests (such as Mann- ssion, cumulative deviation curve techniques were used to determine climatic trends. The results showed that there is no negative or positive statistically significant trend in the study area, despite of slight precipitation decrease in summer for the period of 1960-2005. In contrast, slight precipitation increases (which are not statistically significant) for winter, spring and autumn were determined. Temperature data showed slight increase annually even though results are not statistically significant during the study period. On the other hand, results of temperature trend analyses represent statistically significant trend for the moths of August and September at 90% confidence level.

Key words: Climate variation, precipitation, Mann-Kendall, trend, Kayseri

M.KARABULUT

80

r.

Bu iki elementte meydan

, 1997; Lazaro vd., 2001; ).

meydana getirmektedir.

verimli bir ovaya sahip ol

d

) 2011 KSU Journal of Social Sciences 8(1) 2011

81

n zorlan

uz

-2005

belirlemek suretiyle global

MATERYAL VE METOT

seti 1960-

M.KARABULUT

82

,

s homojenlik testi, hem

nin istatistiksel olarak homojen

, 1960-2005 periyodu

Parametrik olmayan testler (Mann-

Mann-

setlerini gerektirmez

step

) 2011 KSU Journal of Social Sciences 8(1) 2011

83

Temortaya

.

ar

ise Temmuz,

-

O M N M H T A E E K A Y 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46

Ortalma 30,66 32,22 39,02 55,23 52,42 39,43 10,43 6,49 13,60 27,53 32,35 40,99 380,38 Medyan 24,50 28,85 34,30 50,50 48,25 35,85 4,85 2,95 9,00 23,30 26,40 38,00 378,20 Mod 12,70 12,60 34,30 49,30 12,90 23,30 0,00 0,00 0,00 13,30 0,00 66,10 133,50 S. Sapma 17,75 16,88 20,36 25,63 25,91 29,77 14,55 7,83 13,83 22,64 24,06 20,11 83,26 Varyans 315,01 285,08 414,50 657,01 671,57 886,25 211,64 61,25 191,21 512,59 578,92 404,33 6932,46 CV (%) 57,89 52,40 52,17 46,41 49,44 75,50 139,50 120,52 101,66 82,24 74,38 49,06 21,89

0,68 0,41 0,56 0,64 0,52 1,88 1,96 1,02 1,21 1,44 0,78 0,31 0,00 -0,07 -0,12 -0,53 0,63 -0,59 5,79 3,78 -0,46 0,54 2,08 -0,24 -0,30 1,35

Ranj 72,90 73,20 80,60 125,20 99,60 164,00 62,30 23,00 48,10 94,10 92,30 90,70 470,40 Minimum 0,90 1,60 7,40 8,00 12,90 0,70 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,40 0,00 -1,90 133,50 Maksimum 73,80 74,80 88,00 133,20 112,50 164,70 62,30 23,00 48,10 94,50 92,30 88,80 603,90

10 10,86 10,80 16,14 26,10 20,61 10,67 0,00 0,00 0,07 5,52 5,34 19,05 279,72 25 19,13 20,03 24,93 35,38 29,30 18,85 0,35 0,15 3,58 10,88 13,35 26,83 333,55 50 24,50 28,85 34,30 50,50 48,25 35,85 4,85 2,95 9,00 23,30 26,40 38,00 378,20 75 42,78 44,90 54,98 74,03 73,28 53,18 18,15 12,25 23,00 39,08 46,70 58,08 415,43 90 57,37 54,59 71,12 87,85 94,04 76,52 29,32 20,40 39,73 54,21 75,75 67,74 495,38

durumu ekil 2de in

mevsimler yaz ve son-

.446

.

M.KARABULUT

84

-

y = 0,475x + 369,22R2 = 0,0059

0100200300400500600700

S onbahar20%

Yaz15%

39%

27%

y = 0,038x + 102,98R2 = 0,0003

0

50

100

150

200

250 y = 0,4466x + 136,17R2 = 0,0182

0

50

100

150

200

250

Yaz y = -0,1864x + 60,734R2 = 0,0045

0

50

100

150

200

250Sonbahar y = 0,1768x + 69,325

R2 = 0,0049

0

50

100

150

200

250

Mann-K

Ekim ayla ,

d

) 2011 KSU Journal of Social Sciences 8(1) 2011

85

y = -1,0231x + 140,43R 2 = 0,5015

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

iyi anlayabilmek, kurak ve nemli

hesap edilerek

3,

oC olup stand

s homojenlik testi

ir.

M.KARABULUT

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-Kendall

MK-Stat p-value Sen-slope MK-Stat p-value Sen-slope

O 0,662919 0,507382 0,027778 -0,18939 0,849788 -0,03871

-0,68215 0,495147 -0,02759 0,681737 0,495405 0,141379

M -0,34106 0,733057 -0,01053 -0,10417 0,917033 -0,01429

N 0,739101 0,459845 0,011111 -0,90898 0,363359 -0,3

M 0,265414 0,790691 0,003333 1,978844 0,047834 0,562963

H 0,550346 0,582082 0,005882 -1,60966 0,107473 -0,40541

T 1,222561 0,221495 0,02 0,721794 0,470421 0,015789

A 1,81998 0,068762 0,033333 0,658358 0,510308 0,008824

E 2,095281 0,036146 0,032143 -2,05576 0,039806 -0,25294

E 0,615909 0,537955 0,014286 1,988579 0,046748 0,357692

K -0,64423 0,519427 -0,01429 -0,1231 0,90203 -0,04

A -1,23128 0,218217 -0,03714 -0,03787 0,969788 -0,0125

-0,30302 0,761873 -0,0155 -0,12309 0,902039 -0,01587

-0,01895 0,984882 0 0,785857 0,431952 0,14359

Yaz 1,591006 0,111608 0,02 -0,80479 0,420939 -0,10909

Sonbahar 1,183979 0,236421 0,01746 0,473429 0,635907 0,056522

1,441249 0,149514 0,02 0,407131 0,683912 0,417143

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

) 2011 KSU Journal of Social Sciences 8(1) 2011

87

-istatistiksel O M N M H T A E E K A

46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 Ortalma -1,87 0,20 4,80 10,58 14,85 18,85 22,41 21,68 16,97 11,42 4,97 0,72 10,41 Medyan -0,90 0,20 5,35 10,40 14,80 18,85 22,55 21,75 17,00 11,55 5,50 0,90 10,25 Mod -1,00 -1,70 3,10 10,00 14,30 19,00 22,80 22,90 17,00 11,30 5,70 1,90 9,70 S. Sapma 3,58 3,74 2,20 1,68 1,43 1,09 1,39 1,45 1,35 1,75 2,19 3,66 1,08 Varyans 12,82 13,98 4,84 2,82 2,05 1,20 1,92 2,11 1,82 3,06 4,78 13,42 1,17 CV (%) -191,7 1910,97 45,81 15,87 9,63 5,80 6,19 6,69 7,94 15,32 44,05 512,27 10,37

-0,42 0,76 0,01 0,59 -0,45 0,36 -0,03 -0,17 0,41 -0,32 -0,40 1,67 0,58 -0,86 2,91 -0,10 0,67 1,23 0,11 -0,23 -0,23 0,93 -0,30 -0,32 7,74 0,27

Ranj 13,20 21,90 10,60 8,30 7,50 4,80 5,60 6,70 6,70 7,10 9,00 23,30 4,80 Minimum -9,40 -7,90 0,00 7,40 10,50 16,80 19,60 18,10 14,50 7,40 0,20 -6,30 8,40 Maksimum 3,80 14,00 10,60 15,70 18,00 21,60 25,20 24,80 21,20 14,50 9,20 17,00 13,20

10 -7,19 -4,45 1,84 8,47 13,42 17,45 20,37 19,60 15,07 9,15 1,47 -3,63 9,00 25 -4,83 -2,18 3,10 9,43 14,10 18,18 21,48 20,50 16,10 10,28 3,38 -1,93 9,70 50 -0,90 0,20 5,35 10,40 14,80 18,85 22,55 21,75 17,00 11,55 5,50 0,90 10,25 75 0,90 2,80 6,35 11,83 15,95 19,40 23,23 22,83 17,83 12,60 6,40 2,53 11,13 90 2,41 4,16 7,40 12,76 16,83 20,30 24,20 23,56 18,62 13,76 7,61 3,89 11,84

, periyodu boyunca alanda

. Mann-Kendall testi ( )

( 2).

y = 0,0058x + 10,277R2 = 0,0052

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

M.KARABULUT

88

elirgin

periyot ise 1986

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Dinamik klim

2005

) 2011 KSU Journal of Social Sciences 8(1) 2011

89

ya,

. d

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Change, DisSteffen W (eds), Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems. Cambridge University Press, Great Britain, 149-172.

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Journal of Hydrology, 89, 128-144. Lazaro, R.; Rodrigo, F.S.; Gutierrez, L.; Domingo, F.; Puigdefabregas, J. (2001)

-year rainfall record (1967-1997) in semi-arid SE Spain for implications on Journal of Arid Environment, 48, 373-395.

Turkish Journal of Engineering and Environmental Sciences, 27, 247-251.

temperature trend patterns of climate change and urbanization effects in Journal of Geophysical Research,

102, 1909-1919. Tosic, I.;

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 80, 67-77.

International Journal of Climatology, 16, 1057-1076. -evaluation of trends and

changes in mean, maximum and minimum temperatures of Turkey for the period 1929- Journal of Climatology, 22, 947-977.

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