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C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 19-138-Caliphate-The State of al-Qaida-57-Comeback-12 Ayman al Zawahiri entitled, “Go Forth to the Levant.” Hamza bib Laden: our brothers in Palestine” that “your blood is our blood.” Hamzah’s latest discussion, titled “Jerusalem Is But a Bride, Its Dowry Is Our Blood,” was released The jihad in Syria as being key to the effort to “liberate Jerusalem.” Osama’s heir calls on the ummah (worldwide community of Muslims) to raise a “large army,” drawing in “experts” who can wage war on Israel. “our brothers in Palestine” that “your blood is our blood.” Unlike the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), which relies on intimidation and shocking levels of violence to rule local populations in areas it holds and to market itself among global jihadis, al-Nusra uses persuasion and gradual change to increase its influence and control. This strategy is clearly informed by al- Qaeda’s past failures to establish grassroots support in Iraq. Cees: Never leave a partially defeated enemy in one way or the other back on the battlefields. Ayman al Zawahiri discusses al Qaeda’s goal of building an Islamic emirate in Syria BY THOMAS JOSCELYN | May 8, 2016 | [email protected] | @thomasjoscelyn Al Qaeda has released a new audio message from Ayman al Zawahiri entitled, “Go Forth to the Levant.” Zawahiri is known for his long- winded lectures. By his standard, the new audio is mercifully short at just over ten minutes long. It was disseminated via social media yesterday. The al Qaeda emir emphasizes, once again, that his men seek to build an Islamic emirate (or state) in Syria. And he heaps praise on Al Nusrah Front, which is openly loyal to him. Zawahiri begins by saying that the “Levant today is the hope of the Muslim ummah [worldwide community of Muslims],” because it is 1 The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. –Winston Churchill Cees de Waart: CdW Intelligence to Rent Page 1 of 15 25/08/2022

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Page 1: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 19-138-Caliphate-The State of al-Qaida-57-Comeback-12

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 19-138-Caliphate-The State of al-Qaida-57-Comeback-12

Ayman al Zawahiri entitled, “Go Forth to the Levant.”Hamza bib Laden: our brothers in Palestine” that “your blood is our blood.”Hamzah’s latest discussion, titled “Jerusalem Is But a Bride, Its Dowry Is Our Blood,” was released

The jihad in Syria as being key to the effort to “liberate Jerusalem.” Osama’s heir calls on the ummah (worldwide community of Muslims) to raise a “large army,” drawing in “experts” who can wage war on Israel.

“our brothers in Palestine” that “your blood is our blood.”Unlike the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), which relies on intimidation and shocking levels of violence to rule local populations in areas it holds and to market itself among global jihadis, al-Nusra uses persuasion and gradual change to increase its influence and control. This strategy is clearly informed by al-Qaeda’s past failures to establish grassroots support in Iraq.

Cees: Never leave a partially defeated enemy in one way or the other back on the battlefields.

Ayman al Zawahiri discusses al Qaeda’s goal of building an Islamic emirate in SyriaBY THOMAS JOSCELYN | May 8, 2016 | [email protected] | @thomasjoscelyn

Al Qaeda has released a new audio message from Ayman al Zawahiri entitled, “Go Forth to the Levant.” Zawahiri is known for his long-winded lectures. By his standard, the new audio is mercifully short at just over ten minutes long. It was disseminated via social media yesterday.The al Qaeda emir emphasizes, once again, that his men seek to build an Islamic emirate (or state) in Syria. And he heaps praise on Al Nusrah Front, which is openly loyal to him.

Zawahiri begins by saying that the “Levant today is the hope of the Muslim ummah [worldwide community of Muslims],” because it is the only “popular revolution” started during “the Arab Spring that followed the correct path,” which requires both dawa (proselytization) and jihad to establish the “rightly guided caliphate.”

Throughout his talk, Zawahiri contrasts the Islamic emirate that al Qaeda hopes to build in Syria with that of the “Kharijites,” a name given to a faction in Islam’s early history that is considered deviant. Today, the word is often used as a synonym for extremists. Indeed, Zawahiri uses “Kharijites” and “neo-Kharijites” as a way to refer to al Qaeda’s rivals in Abu Bakr al Baghdadi’s Islamic State. Al Qaeda and like-minded jihadists have rejected Baghdadi’s project, arguing it is not a proper caliphate.

The al Qaeda emir says it is the “duty” of all Muslims today to “defend jihad in the Levant against” various “conspiracies” that are supposedly led by America, Britain and Saudi Arabia. Others seek to “establish a regime” based on Islam, but it is only a “counterfeit” version of Islam because it approves of “secularism” and “nationalism,” Zawahiri warns.Some believe that al Qaeda is only interested in attacking the West and doesn’t really seek to acquire territory. This myth is contradicted by many facts. And Zawahiri’s latest message demonstrates, again, that al Qaeda’s principal interest in Syria is to wage guerrilla warfare until Bashar al Assad’s regime is toppled. Only then can al Qaeda and its allies build a jihadist emirate in Assad’s ashes.

Zawahiri says it is “our duty today” to work for the “unity of the mujahideen” until the Levant is “liberated” from the “Nusayri” (a pejorative term for Alawites) regime and their Shiite partners (meaning Iran and Hezbollah), as well as the Western “Crusaders” and Russia. The goal is to build a

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“rightly guided” Islamic “entity.”The al Qaeda leader urges the mujahideen to unite in Syria, saying it is a matter of “life and

death” for them. He also cautions them not to be distracted by the discussion of Al Nusrah Front’s relationship with al Qaeda.Referring to reports that Al Nusrah is going to break its bay’ah (allegiance) to al Qaeda, Zawahiri asks rhetorically if this is would satisfy the “criminals.” Zawahiri wonders further if such a break would lead to Al Nusrah being forced to “submit to humiliating and insulting agreements” as part of a “surrender” to “corrupt” governments in the region. Zawahiri cautions that this is the path to “rotten” democracy, which was the downfall of other Islamist groups, such as the Islamic Salvation Front in Algeria and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, and led to their members being thrown in jail.

Zawahiri says he and others in al Qaeda “cherish” their “relationship” with the “precious Al Nusrah Front” and he asks Allah to increase its “steadfastness” in the face of its enemies.He then gets to the heart of the matter, repeating what he and others have made clear in the past: Al Qaeda is fighting to install an Islamic emirate based on its version of sharia. Only then will al Qaeda’s mission be accomplished.“We have said over and over [to] the people of the Levant” and especially to the “brave and blessed mujahideen,” if “they establish their Muslim government and choose an imam, then what they choose is what we choose,” Zawahiri says, according to a translation obtained by The Long War Journal. He argues that al Qaeda’s men are not “students of power” who want to rule over others, but instead “students of sharia judgment” who want to be “ruled as Muslims” under Islam.Zawahiri calls on the mujahideen to unite in the Levant, so they can “establish a rightly guided mujahid Islamic government.” Such a state would ultimately lead to the “return of the caliphate” according to the “prophetic methodology.”Organizational “affiliations” will not be “an obstacle” to achieving this goal, Zawahiri insists, because al Qaeda is a part of the “ummah” and “not its rulers.” He takes another dig at the Islamic State, saying al Qaeda does not require a bay’ah to “unknown people” or a “Caliph of surprises,” meaning Baghdadi.

“We in al Qaeda have not accepted pledges of allegiance except those given gladly, nor have we forced them upon anyone,” Zawahiri says, according to the translation obtained by The Long War Journal. He draws a direct contrast to the “neo-Kharijites” in the Islamic State, who threaten to kill people if they do not pledge their fealty.Zawahiri’s explanation of al Qaeda’s goals and relationship with Al Nusrah Front is entirely consistent with what al Qaeda leaders have said in the past. In an interview televised in December, for instance, Al Nusrah Front emir Abu Muhammad al Julani explained that his group would cease to be al Qaeda only when they achieved victory. If the jihadists win and form the radical Islamic government they envision, then there will be no need for al Qaeda. Julani cited Zawahiri in his explanation. [See LWJ report, Al Nusrah Front leader refuses to break with al Qaeda.]“If the Levant is liberated, and if the Muslims come together in a well-guided Islamic government, a well-guided Muslim state that enforces the sharia of Allah Almighty, I will be the first soldier of such a government, and I will be under its jurisdiction,” Zawahiri said previously, according to Julani.“Even Dr. Ayman [al Zawahiri] will be a soldier serving under the command of such a government” that “enforces all the instructions of Islam,” Julani said. And Al Nusrah’s jihadists “will be the first soldiers working under the command of such a government” as well.Some claim that Zawahiri’s words imply a real “break” between Al Nusrah and al Qaeda’s senior leadership. But his latest message, and Julani’s previous explanation, do not support that interpretation.The Long War Journal has reported on multiple occasions that some jihadists, including even some al Qaeda leaders, view the al Qaeda brand as a hindrance to overthrowing Assad. Al Nusrah’s overt role

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in al Qaeda’s network likely limits the amount of support that some regional actors can provide to the insurgents. [See, for example, LWJ reports: Al Nusrah Front chief proposed rebel unity plan and US strikes al Qaeda’s ‘Khorasan Group’ in Syria.]Even if Al Nusrah did announce a split from al Qaeda, then it likely would be nothing more than a marketing ploy. Osama bin Laden and Ayman al Zawahiri have ordered groups loyal to them to hide their affiliation in order to avoid the baggage that comes with being associated with al Qaeda. The group has also adopted multiple brands across the globe to obfuscate the extent of its network from the West and broaden its appeal to Muslims. For example, Al Nusrah currently leads the Jaysh al Fath alliance in Syria. The coalition provides Al Nusrah (al Qaeda) with a way to pool the resources of other groups, including those receiving support from foreign nations.The Long War Journal has reported since 2013 that al Qaeda seeks is to establish an Islamic emirate in Syria.Zawahiri’s new message is simply the latest confirmation of al Qaeda’s longstanding goal.

Osama bin Laden’s son says jihad in Syria key to ‘liberate Palestine’BY THOMAS JOSCELYN | May 9, 2016 | [email protected] | @thomasjoscelyn

Al Qaeda’s propaganda arm, As Sahab, has released a new message from Osama bin Laden’s son, Hamzah. It is the second time Hamzah has spoken on behalf of al Qaeda since last August. Hamzah’s message has been paired with a speech by Ayman al Zawahiri on both occasions.Hamzah’s latest discussion, titled “Jerusalem Is But a Bride, Its Dowry Is Our Blood,” was released online earlier today.Hamzah speaks at length about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, saying that Muslims everywhere must “participate in our Palestinian brothers’ intifada” by “killing Jews and striking their interests worldwide.” Muslims must “purge” their “beloved Palestine” of the Jews and their Western “supporters,” according to Hamzah.In addition to “personally” supporting the Palestinians’ cause, Hamzah points to the jihad in Syria as being key to the effort to “liberate Jerusalem.” Osama’s heir calls on the ummah (worldwide community of Muslims) to raise a “large army,” drawing in “experts” who can wage war on Israel.The “best preparation field” for raising this great army is in “the blessed Levant,” he says. The “path to liberate Palestine is far closer today,” Hamzah claims, because of the “Syrian revolution.” Therefore, the “Islamic ummah” must focus its efforts on the “jihad in the Levant, guiding and directing it,” spreading awareness of sharia, and “uniting the mujahideen’s ranks there.”Hamzah adds that there are “no more excuses” for those who sow “division” in the mujahideen’s ranks, because the entire world has supposedly united “against Muslims.” His words are a thinly-veiled critique of the Islamic State, which al Qaeda blames for sowing discord between jihadist factions in Syria and elsewhere.This is not the first time al Qaeda has sought to link the war in Syria to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.In a message released last November, for example, Zawahiri argued that the jihadists must establish a “state” in Egypt and in the Levant in order to “mobilize the ummah to liberate Palestine.” The al Qaeda chieftain said this project “requires unity” and “the mujahideen” should avoid “hostilities” among themselves. Hamzah explores this same basic theme in his latest address.As was the case in August 2015, when al Qaeda released its first message from Hamzah, the younger bin Laden does not show his face. Instead, the audio of his speech is embedded in a video production.Hamzah’s talk is bracketed by archival material of his father. The video opens with a clip of Osama saying that the blood of the Palestinians’ sons is the same as the “blood of our sons.” Osama’s words fit neatly with Hamzah’s narrative, which is likely why this clip was included. The video ends with more footage of Osama.

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The video also includes footage of Ibrahim al Rubaish, a former Guantanamo detainee who became one of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula’s most senior ideologues. Rubaish was killed in a US drone strike last year.In the clip replayed by As Sahab, Rubaish warns against Muslims restricting the concept of “brotherhood” to “membership” in a “group” or “organization.” The AQAP theologian stresses that “brotherhood” encompasses all Muslims. A screen shot of Rubaish, as shown by As Sahab, can be seen on the right.Rubaish’s sermon is intended to buttress Hamzah’s own warnings in this regard. The junior bin Laden denounces the “fanatic” who supports “one group or faction” over others. Hamzah says that one’s love for a group should never trump one’s “love for other Muslims” simply because they don’t belong to the same organization.Hamzah’s and Rubaish’s words are undoubtedly aimed at the Islamic State, which al Qaeda accuses of placing the interests of its own “faction” above those of other jihadists and Muslims.Hamzah echoes the words of his father, telling “our brothers in Palestine” that “your blood is our blood.”He then concludes by praising the jihad in each of the areas where al Qaeda and its regional branches operate: Yemen, the Levant, the Khorasan (an area that includes Afghanistan and Pakistan), Somalia, North Africa and the Maghreb. Hamzah swears that they will “maintain the jihad started by our leaders” in each of these areas until victory is achieved.Thomas Joscelyn is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Senior Editor for The Long War Journal.

Al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria, Jabhat al-Nusra, entered Syria in late 2011. By mid-2014, it had grown from a moderately-sized force bedeviled by conflict with more powerful armed groups to one of the few remaining key players in Northern Syria. During its early years, the group’s main and only focus was on its military operations against the Syrian regime. It rarely interfered in civil affairs and local governance. Since July 2014, however, al-Nusra has deliberately leveraged its powerful status to assert itself as a key revolutionary force, gradually insinuating itself into governance roles with the goal of implementing al-Qaeda’s political vision in Syria.Unlike the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), which relies on intimidation and shocking levels of violence to rule local populations in areas it holds and to market itself among global jihadis, al-Nusra uses persuasion and gradual change to increase its influence and control. This strategy is clearly informed by al-Qaeda’s past failures to establish grassroots support in Iraq. The Islamic State in Iraq’s defeat in 2007 was largely due to its failure to tend to its base or maintain a working relationship with nationalist Iraqi insurgents and local power brokers. By contrast, a gradual approach has allowed al-Nusra to root itself in Syrian society and present its project as one the few remaining viable alternatives for the Syrian people, making a Syria ruled by al-Qaeda a scenario more plausible than ever before.Al-Nusra starts with embedding itself in the opposition and then incrementally moving to subsume, purge, or dominate revolutionary forces, both civilian and military.  It has used this approach

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throughout Syria. Unlike ISIL, al-Nusra’s logic of control is defined by achieving a loose military and political dominance, rather than complete control, although the latter is its long-term objective. The group carefully chooses when and where to assert its authority to maintain a careful balance between its long-term aims—full control and establishing an Islamic Emirate in Syrian—and the need to appease revolutionary forces and the local population. Upon entering new territory, for example, al-Nusra often refrains from imposing its control on the population or governance institutions. Instead, it initially shares control with the groups already in power on the ground, even if they are secularists and oppose al-Nusra’s visions for Syria. Al-Nusra uses this approach to prevent an abrupt rejection by the local population that may result in a full-fledged confrontation with opposition armed groups, as well as to diffuse its presence in opposition-held areas. But sharing control does not necessarily foster agreement. It is a tactic to delay confrontation until al-Nusra has the military and political means to dispense with its temporary allies and purge, or subsume, their members.This gradualist approach dovetails with al-Nusra’s strategy to gain genuine grassroots support for its long-term political project. Gaining the acceptance of the Syrian people is the heart of al-Nusra’s Syria strategy. It relies on a persuasive approach to expand its influence, ideology, and, eventually, control. Al-Nusra uses this gradual approach to pursue a social reform agenda, using soft tactics to gain local support and buy-in to their long-term vision for Syria. This often means beginning with da’wa, or proselytization, which al-Nusra frequently deploys through its publications, public events, and everyday interactions with non-members. It often launches a string of extensive da’wa campaigns, led by local and foreign clerics and fighters. These campaigns double as recruitment events and as platforms to promote their political project. Beyond large public events, al-Nusra places men on street corners and markets to preach its ideology, provides shari’a courses , sends mobile da’wa caravans to rural areas, posts manifold leaflets and billboards, replaces mosques leaders with men more sympathetic to the group’s ideas, and hosts local children’s competitions testing knowledge of the Quran and other Islamic texts and history.These efforts are not limited to areas where al-Nusra has presence. According to some activists interviewed by the author, al-Nusra sends its da’ween to Free Syrian

Al-Nusra member distributes meat to the poor in Southern Syria. Source: TwitterArmy (FSA) and Ahrar al-Sham-held territories, and even to recruit members and factions of other armed groups to its cause, as it did with in al-Bareh, Idlib. Further, al-Nusra has increasingly prioritized tightening its control over institutions through which it indirectly influences and transforms Syrian society. These institutions range from shari’a courts and shura councils , to military alliances’ shari’a commissions. One of al-Nusra’s most salient tools is its shari’a courts. Unlike other armed groups, al-Nusra always ensures that its affiliated shari’a courts are professional and effective, endowing each with an executive security force to enforce its rulings. As a result, al-Nusra-affiliated courts have long compared favorably with those of its rivals, which are known to be ineffective, biased, and without the power to enforce their decisions. The declining Free Judicial Council is a case in point. In several areas in Idlib, interviews with residents and activists that I conducted indicated that people trusted and therefore preferred al-Nusra-affiliated shari’a courts. “If a court can’t enforce its ruling, no one would trust it or use it,” a lawyer from Idlib Province told me. He added that secular courts affiliated with FSA groups do exist, but due to their inability to implement their rulings, few local residents go to these courts.Control of the judicial system gives al-Nusra powerful influence inside communities. First, it enables the group to rule and adjudicate based on its own interpretation of the law, which is Salafi and hardline. This in turn molds societal norms and pressures communities to conform to al-Nusra’s ultra-conservative tenets. Second, control of the judicial system in some cases may give the group possession of essential processes and documents such as marriage certificates, deeds, and bills of sale.

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In many cases, al-Nusra courts have been successful in seizing private and public property. Al-Nusra is slowly rendering a large portion of the population beholden to it for essentials such as proving lineage, land ownership, marriage, and other matters of personal law. As it embeds itself in the fabric of Syrian society, the group is able to influence the societal norms of the Syrian population.Al-Nusra’s strategy of conditioning the environment for its future consolidation of power, and eventual sole rule, also relies on purging civil society groups, local governance institutions, and armed groups with democratic outlooks, and replacing them with its own institutions. Since July 2014, al-Nusra has displaced, harassed, and imprisoned dozens of civil activists. In nearly all cases, al-Nusra used courts and governing authorities to restrict the activities of civil society actors. Local aid organizations and civil society groups are required to obtain written approval from the shura council (which al-Nusra dominates) before embarking on any work. These restrictions often prevent these organizations from working in areas where al-Nusra has influence, especially when the group requires civil society activists to disclose the names of their donors and the objectives of their work. As a result, work that promotes democratic values, civil governance, or human rights are often rejected, further increasing al-Nusra’s monopoly over shaping and indoctrinating local communities.Further, al-Nusra also encroached on several local councils—which are community-based service-provision organizations that are often funded by international aid organizations—to assert its authority over them, but with little success. The main factor behind al-Nusra’s failure in this area is its inability to replace the services these councils provide as well as Ahrar al-Sham’s opposition to al-Nusra’s expansionist tendencies. In one interview I conducted, a civil activist in Saraqib City, for example, said that al-Nusra attempted to install its own people in the local council, but failed following popular outcry and protests by local residents supported by Ahrar al-Sham. Al-Nusra also tried to do the same with in Salqeen and Kfar Nubul, but failed after Ahrar al-Sham intervened. Nonetheless, if Ahrar al-Sham does not intervene in the future, there will be little that these councils and their communities can do to survive al-Nusra’s political project in Syria.Before disbanding these councils, however, al-Nusra seeks to present the local population with alternative organizations to replace those it attacks. Several al-Nusra-affiliated education, service provision, and religious organizations emerged in Idlib Province following Jabhat al-Nusra’s surge in 2014. Al-Nusra provides basic services to communities where it has a presence as an alternative to these elected councils. In the North, al-Nusra started its own service provision organization, the General Services Management (GSM), although it has yet to be able to provide the bare minimum of basic services to all areas where it has presence. GSM provides water and electricity services to several local communities in Aleppo, Idlib, and Hama provinces. Al-Nusra also supports local bakeries in some areas and controls market prices through its courts and Islamic police. Although service provision remain at low intensity, with time and enough resources, al-Nusra will likely seek to completely replace local councils with GSM to present itself to the Syrian people as a viable alternative to the secular opposition.

Jabhat al-Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham, and FSA flags fly together in Idlib City after its ANF and allies took over the city rrom the Assad regime. Source: FacebookJabhat Al-Nusra also attacked and purged several FSA-affiliated armed groups, citing a variety of justifications (of varying legitimacy), from corruption to local feuds, almost immediately upon its re-entry into Idlib Province. One of the first groups targeted by al-Nusra was the Syria Revolutionaries Front (SRF), led by Jamal Ma’rouf, a well-known warlord in Idlib Province. Al-Nusra used corruption within the SRF ranks as a pretext to declare war. The real reasons behind al-Nusra’s aggression, however, went far beyond SRF’s small-time oil smuggling operations. First, al-Nusra wished to expand and take over the lucrative smuggling operations SRF controlled. The easiest and arguably

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only way to accomplish this at the time was through seizing SRF territories. Second, SRF relations with the United States posed a strategic threat to al-Nusra’s presence in Syria. The list of FSA-groups to have come under al-Nusra’s ax is long, including Jabhat Haq, Abu al-Alamayn Brigade, Division 30, Liwa al-Ansar, and most recently Division 13, all of which are FSA-affiliated armed and some of which are backed by the United States. Despite a clear popular uproar against al-Nusra’s crackdown on FSA-affiliated groups, it has emerged from the resulting scandals relatively unscathed. In the past year, several anti-al-Nusra popular protests erupted in Aleppo and Idlib Provinces. Unlike ISIL, al-Nusra responded to these protests with restraint. Although it used force to disperse some of these protests, it refrained from using excessive violence. Instead, al-Nusra either waited for protests to taper off, or staged its own counter-protests, sometimes even peacefully infiltrating rival protests with its own flags and demonstrators.Purging these groups was a strategic decision to increase al-Nusra’s influence and condition the north for eventual al-Nusra rule. To date, there remain numerous FSA-affiliated groups active in al-Nusra’s sphere of influence, but none these pose a strategic threat to al-Nusra’s presence. This is especially true in Idlib and Hama Provinces, where groups such as Fursan al-Haq and Saraqib Revolutionary Front have been fighting the regime alongside Jabhat al-Nusra, despite the former having received military aid from the United States. Nevertheless, if al-Nusra continues its policies, even these groups will not survive its expansion and will likely disband, leaving their revolution to be hijacked by al-Nusra.Although some have suggested that al-Nusra “will almost certainly follow through on its plans and establish an emirate in Idlib by the end of 2016,” it would not be wise to expect such a precipitous timeline: Al-Nusra shares control with powerful Islamist armed groups, namely Ahrar al-Sham, whose political goals run counter to those of al-Nusra. Ahrar al-Sham will almost certainly reject, and is likely to halt, such a move. Being pragmatic, al-Nusra is mindful of its inability at this time to purge Ahrar al-Sham without endangering its survival in Syria. For al-Nusra to move against such a formidable competitor, a fundamental change in the power balance in Idlib Province is necessary—one that is unlikely to occur in seven months.

Nonetheless, al-Nusra’s gradual and very steady expansion of influence is not declining in any major

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way. Its well-trained fighters continue to win battles and play an important role in combating the Syrian regime and its allies, which remains the main priority to many pro-opposition Syrians. Its courts and influence over shura councils allows al-Nusra to shape Syrian society according to its own interpretation of Islam and implement al-Qaeda’s vision. It has positioned itself so that no major power in the north can move against it—be it Ahrar al-Sham and other armed Islamist groups—without severely endangering their own military standing. Barring a major change, such as a shift in the U.S.-led coalition policy towards attacking al-Qaeda in Syria or a change in Ahrar al-Sham’s current position towards al-Nusra, it is possible that we will see al-Qaeda ruling parts of the country in the foreseeable future—and end all hopes for a democratic Syria. Yasir Abbas is a senior analyst with The Stabilization Network (TSN), a Washington, DC-based CVE and conflict stabilization consultancy.

Another comeback and an old member of the so-called Peshawar Five: Since his days as a C.I.A.-backed Afghan guerrilla leader against the Soviets in the 1980s, the former prime minister and perpetual insurgent Gulbuddin Hekmatyar has always seemed to be negotiating his next shift of alliances.Now, with his Hezb-i-Islami militant group nearly eclipsed by the Taliban, Mr. Hekmatyar, 68, is once again working a deal — this time to formally reconcile with the Afghan government for the first time since the end of the country’s civil war.After years of failed overtures, representatives of Mr. Hekmatyar, whose whereabouts is unknown, are now said to be finalizing a peace agreement with the struggling government of President Ashraf Ghani, according to representatives from both sides. If signed, the agreement would allow Mr. Hekmatyar to return to Kabul for the first time since 1996. That was when the Taliban pushed him out of power after he had negotiated a deal to become prime minister in return for ending his insurgency against the government…

Regards Cees: Taliban claims to have ‘thousands of fully armed martyrdom seekers’BY BILL ROGGIO | May 9, 2016 | [email protected] | @billroggioThe Afghan Taliban said it would give “top priority” to retaliate against government agencies involved in the execution of jihadist prisoners and claimed it has “thousands of fully armed martyrdom seekers” at its disposal who are “awaiting to take revenge.”The Taliban issued the statement yesterday on its official website, Voice of Jihad, after the Afghan government executed six jihadists, including a member of al Qaeda, for various attacks in the country.One of the jihadists executed yesterday by the Afghan government was Khan Agha, who was better known as Abdul Rahman, according to Khaama Press. Rahman was involved in the assassination of National Directorate of Security Deputy Director Dr. Abdullah Laghmani on Sept. 2, 2009. Laghmani was one of 23 Afghans killed in a suicide attack inside a mosque in the city of Mehtarlam, the capital of Laghman province. The NDS captured Rahman and three associates in December 2009, and was described as a Taliban commander in the province. Al Qaeda and Taliban leaders often are members of both groups.The Afghan government has indicated that it would continue to execute members of the Taliban and allied groups. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid responded by threatening agencies involved in the executions.“From now onwards, Allah willing, the Mujahideen shall make all enemy bodies involved in martyring Mujahideen inmates as their top priority during military planning,” Mujahid said. “They will not be allowed to breathe peacefully nor will they ever be able to feel security.”“We have thousands of fully armed martyrdom seekers awaiting to take revenge, we shall never

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relinquish our turn,” Mujahid concluded.While Mujahid’s claim that the Taliban has “thousands of martyrdom seekers” may be seen as boastful, the groups has conducted numerous attacks against Afghan and Coalition facilities using multiple suicide bombers and armed fighters over the past decade. The Taliban possesses the infrastructure to recruit, indoctrinate, train and deploy these suicide assault teams throughout Afghanistan.Such attacks are commonplace in Afghanistan, and many often take place in the capital of Kabul. In one of the more complex attacks that employed “martyrdom seekers,” the Taliban assaulted Camp Bastion, a sprawling military base that was shared by US Marines and British troops and located in the middle of the Dashti Margo desert in Helmand province. On Sept. 14, 2012, a 15-man Taliban team penetrated the perimeter at the airbase, destroyed six USMC Harriers and damaged two more, and killed the squadron commander and a sergeant. Fourteen of the 15 members of the assault team were killed, while the last was wounded and captured.The Taliban has given some clues about the organization of its martyrdom units. It has identified two key leaders of its “Suicide Groups.” Mullah Taj Mir Jawad has been described as the head of a “martyrdom-seekers battalion.” Jawad swore allegiance to Mullah Mansour in a video released by the group in September.Qari Abdul Raouf Zakir, the “commander” of the Taliban’s “suicide groups,” also swore allegiance to Mullah Mansour in the same video as Jawad. Qari Zakir, who was designated as a terrorist by the State Department in November 2012, has long commanded the Haqqani Network’s suicide operations.The Haqqani Network is an al Qaeda-linked Taliban subgroup that operates throughout Afghanistan and is based in Pakistan, where it is supported by Pakistan’s military and the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI). Sirajuddin Haqqani, the operational commander of the Haqqani Network, serves as Mullah Mansour’s deputy and as the head of the Taliban’s military.The Taliban has also promoted suicide teams in its propaganda. The Muaskar ul Fida, one of several suicide squads operating in Afghanistan, swore allegiance to the Taliban’s new emir in November 2015.Bill Roggio is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Editor of The Long War Journal.

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