Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-122-Caliphate-al-Zawahiri-10-2

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence.

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat.

If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.” ― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

The Security Council secretary spoke about the possible impact that the North Caucasians who are fighting in the Middle East might have on the situation in the North Caucasus. “We should take extra care about the threat posed by militants involved in the conflict on the side of the terrorist groups and returning from those hot spots,” Patrushev said. “It is no secret that a large number of mercenaries from Russia are fighting overseas today in the ranks of those bandit groups”. He added that “as they return home, they might bring the skills of sophisticated terrorism to our land, including those characteristic of the group that calls itself the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant [sic].” -- Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev

Christian Taliban? Ukraine nationalist craves jihad against Russia, reports Intercept 1

Published time: March 20, 2015 A Ukrainian ultranationalist of Polish descent wants to turn the armed conflict in the east of the country into a crusade against Russia. The Chechen war veteran wants to amalgamate Orthodox Christianity with Islamic jihadism against Russia. The leader of the Ukrainian ‘Bratstvo’ (Brotherhood) political organization, Dmitry Korchinsky (Dmytro Korchynsky), intends to create a sort of Christian Taliban to wage a holy war against Russia, the Intercept reports. Korchinsky believes his mission is to establish an original ideology that makes an unholy alliance between messianic Christianity and jihadist Islam, citing the examples of Hezbollah, the Taliban and Al-Qaeda. The dualism of the new religious movement could be beneficial for Ukraine, says Korchinsky, who sees his community as a tool to carry out higher order tasks that the Ukrainian government doesn’t formally control

--- Guru Ramakrishnan believes that by agreeing to lead a coalition war against Islamic State, the Russian leader could get the crippling economic sanctions lifted and ease tensions over Ukraine, thus securing his legacyThe world needs a robust solution to two concurrent geopolitical problems which have imposed a latent tax on global trade and growth. The ballooning threat of Islamic State in the Middle East and the escalating Russian-Ukrainian conflict need swift action and resolution.

Dec 2014, The current outburst of religious extremism is a direct consequence of the short-sighted policies of Western nations, the head of Russian Presidential Administration says. “You all know about the serious processes that are taking place in the Middle East and North Africa, where the ethnic and confessional balance is now being blatantly destroyed,” Sergey Ivanov stated. “First of all we must talk about the sharp surge of religious extremism that is

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largely a consequence of the, diplomatically speaking, shortsighted policy of a number of Western countries,” he told the Presidential Council for Interaction with Religious Organizations. “Everyone sees this very clearly,” he noted.

20 March, The US is reconsidering its staunch support of Israel at the United Nations and has not automatically accepted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s statement to the American media affirming his support of two states for two peoples after pre-election comments that appeared to reject it. “I never retracted my speech in Bar-Ilan University six years ago calling for a demilitarized Palestinian state that recognized the Jewish state,” Netanyahu said in an interview with MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell. “I want a sustainable peaceful two-state solution,” he said. “But for that, circumstances have to change.” Obama administration officials hinted broadly that the US may – for the first time – back a UN Security Council resolution laying down the principles for a two-state solution, or support a Palestinian bid to join the UN as a full member. The Palestinians have sought a path to statehood outside negotiations with Israel through the UN, but longstanding US policy has been to oppose unilateral actions by either side. US State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said that, while the US remains committed to opposing an unfair or biased resolution on Israel, not all resolutions meet that criteria. “There are a range of options in the UN Security Council,” she said. “I am not going to prejudge it further. What we will look at is the content of a resolution.” Remember: The Fifth Phase This will be the point at which an Islamic state, or caliphate, can be declared. The plan is that by this time, between 2013 and 2016, Western influence in the Islamic world will be so reduced and Israel weakened so much, that resistance will not be feared. Al-Qaida hopes that by then the Islamic state will be able to bring about a new world order. Additionally, Al-Zawahiri dreams of 2 a future jihad in the southern Russian Republics, Iran, Turkey, and Pakistan to unite a nuclear Pakistan and the gas-rich Caspian region to serve jihad. Al-Zawahiri identifies the following targets for al-Qaeda and its affiliates:

• The United Nations• Arab rulers• Multinational corporations• The Internet• International News and satellite media• International relief organizations, which he believes are covers for spying,

proselytizing, attempted coups, and weapons transfers.

Moscow Begins to Grasp the Threat Posed by Islamic State March 20, 2015 -- Volume 12, Issue 52 As the militants of the armed Islamic resistance in the North Caucasus began taking oaths of allegiance to the so-called Islamic State (see EDM, January 30), the Russian authorities began looking for ways to confront them. On March 11, Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev presided over a meeting of the governors of the North Caucasian Federal District in Pyatigorsk, the federal district’s de facto capital (Grozny-inform.ru, March 12). The participants discussed how to thwart ethnic and religious conflict, terrorism, and extremism in the region. In reality, the primary theme of the meeting was, of course, preventing terrorism, as Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov emphasized in an interview (RT, March 11). The Security Council secretary spoke about the possible impact that the North Caucasians who are fighting in the Middle East might have on the situation in the North Caucasus. “We should take extra care about the threat posed by militants involved in the conflict on the side of the terrorist groups and returning from those hot spots,” Patrushev said.

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“It is no secret that a large number of mercenaries from Russia are fighting overseas today in the ranks of those bandit groups” (Tvc.ru, March 11). He added that “as they return home, they might bring the skills of sophisticated terrorism to our land, including those characteristic of the group that calls itself the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant [sic].” Earlier, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov spoke about the threats presented by the Islamic State. The Islamic State, he said, “does not respect state boundaries,” adding: “It is like a cancer, a metastasis, growing in different directions. This is all very worrying and concerns us too, concerns the interests of our national security and that of our friends in the region” (Tvc.ru, February 16). Thus, it is clear that officials at the highest levels in Russia fully appreciate the danger posed by those returning to Russia from the Middle East. According to Ramzan Kadyrov, the participants in the government meeting in Pyatigorsk especially praised the experience of the Chechen Republic in combatting terrorism (RIA Novosti, March 11). It is unclear, however, what was meant by the progressive “experience” of Chechnya. Indeed, having dozens of special services units and tens of thousands troops on its territory and persecuting all relatives of the suspected members of the armed Islamic movement in Chechnya and abroad hardly qualify as “progressive experience.” Patrushev also pointed out that the sources of terrorism lie in the clan politics of the region. “We have repeatedly noted the corruption of mid-level officials, the presence of ‘ethnic groups of influence,’ nepotism and cronyism,”—the Security Council secretary said (Rg.ru, March 11). Thus, Patrushev admitted that Russia has failed to change the system it created back in the middle of the 19th century, and still relies on the support of the few numbers of its representatives in the region who are permitted to use any methods to protect Russian interests. No signs are in sight, however, that this system will change in the 21st century, as Moscow itself still relies on the clans of local politicians for the mobilization of resources or public support, rather than on parties or other broad social movements. Participants in the meeting also raised the issue of the financing of the insurgency. This question has been quite topical since 2000. The officials made yet another statement about the government’s inability to intercept foreign channels of support for the rebels. When Moscow starts looking abroad for the causes of its failures in the North Caucasus, the local clans feel more incentivized to excuse their own failures and further indulge in corrupt practices. Regional authorities are not responsible for intercepting foreign financial support for the insurgents: it is the federal government’s responsibility. Moscow’s appointees claim that the West finances the rebels to weaken Russia, while even ordinary citizens know that 90 percent of the militants’ resources are of local origin, such as racketeering, sharia taxes (zakat), voluntary contributions by sympathizers, payoffs from officials, etc. In a situation in which the Russian security services’ ties to their foreign colleagues are minimal, the security services are left on their own to deal with militants who want to return to Russia and wage war under the flag of the Islamic State. It is easier for Islamic State fighters to infiltrate the region now since some of the Caucasus Emirate’s fighters have pledged allegiance to the Islamic State and become, in a way, part of this organization (see EDM, January 30). Even worse for Russia is the fact that Chechens hold important positions in the Islamic State, which lures other Chechens to the organization, including Chechens living in the West. Against the backdrop of the economic issues related to Western sanctions, the Kremlin is still concerned about the possible emergence in Russia of rebels fighting under the Islamic State’s flag. Even the Caucasus Emirate now appears to be of less interest to the

Russian authorities than the threat posed by the Islamic State. Therefore, with this increased threat it is possible that Moscow could end up reducing its support for Bashar al-Assad in Syria and direct its resources toward neutralizing the Islamic State by all available means.

--Mairbek Vatchagaev

Hornets’ nest: Massive drills across Russia and the western The Hollow Coalition

U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, NATO's supreme commander in Europe, has termed Russia's "threats to deploy nuclear-capable Iskander-M missiles in Kaliningrad" part of what he called the Kremlin's "pattern of continuing behavior to coerce its neighbors in Central and Eastern Europe."

C: Where the West takes 10 years time to re-establish the long negleted 2% of GDP to their military budget, Russia plans within the next 10 years- by 2024 a: Future Russian army that could deploy anywhere in the world – in 7 hours

C: Russia just a week ago Motorized infantry, combat aviation and Spetznaz troops have been put on alert in all nine time zones of the Russian Federation, including the Volga region, Urals, Western Siberia, the Far East region and the Pacific, the North Caucasus and along the borders of NATO member states from the Arctic through to the Baltic and Black Sea. Just a year ago Putin resorted to force in annexing Crimea and turning much of eastern Ukraine into an ungovernable mess. He calculated that we would not respond militarily. He was correct. We undertook economic sanctions, hoping he would relent. He has not, despite a collapse in oil prices that has given the sanctions unexpected bite. We also are hoping against hope that conducting airstrikes in Iraq and Syria and outsourcing ground combat to Shiite militia, Kurdish terrorists, Sunni tribesmen, the Iranian military and "vetted" Syrian moderates, Iranian led shia milities will destroy the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and

bring stability to the region. Again, it is we who seem to be in another world. But our greatest deficit lies in the fact that Putin and the Islamists understand us far better than we understand them. They have read our books, watched our movies, followed our politics. They know our vulnerabilities and strengths, our military capabilities and our aversion to using them. This knowledge informs their strategies. Our strategies, on the other hand, are often grounded more in illusion than fact, less on understanding who our

opponents are than on who we imagine them to be. That lack of understanding is evident in our insistence that Islamists are not practicing Islam. Putin and the Islamists have assumed prominent places in the 21st century. Western leaders need to adapt to that fact, arrive at a better understanding of how it came about and devise strategies rooted in reality, not in lazy misconceptions.—

“If Damascus falls 3, the dreaded black and white flag of ISIS will fly” over Syria, Virginia state Senator Richard Black told RT. “Within a period of months after the fall of Damascus, Jordan will fall and Lebanon will fall,” he said, adding that the self-proclaimed Islamic State would then target Europe next. “I look at Syria as the center of gravity… for Western

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civilization,” Black said, using the military strategists’ term for a place or event that can determine the outcome of a war. “If it falls, we’ll begin to see a very rapid advance of Islam on Europe.” C: no signs of urgency seen in European political capitals, they say they can wait 10 years to built their forces..

There is no effective international force when it comes to the Libyan issue … there is a lot of talk about Libya but little action. All states are talking, but this remains just words and is not commensurate with the size of the battle and crisis in Libya 4. “There is no effective international force when it comes to the Libyan issue.” He accused European states of playing a negative role in the crisis in his country, saying, “We do not understand why London has become a capital supplying us with terrorism.” He added, “European states have been negligent regarding the situation in Libya, despite the fact that they are faced with terrorism and boats of terrorists will soon arrive to their shores.” -- Minister of Information and Culture Omar al-Qweri stressed that the current situation in Libya does not require a political solution

Published in Foreign Affairs March 2015, The Hollow Coalition Washington's Timid European Allies Of the 62 nominal allies for Operation Inherent Resolve (as the campaign is now called), only 16 have actually committed military forces, and only 11 have conducted offensive operations to date. Many appear willing to pay lip service to U.S. President Barack Obama’s condemnation of ISIS, only to ignore his subsequent call to arms. Most disconcerting is the meekness of Washington’s supposedly stalwart European allies. Nowhere is European reticence more apparent than in the share of airstrikes in Iraq and Syria. Such an underwhelming European response is puzzling. After all, European security interests should dictate an even more robust effort against ISIS than against the Qaddafi regime. For one, ISIS represents a much more immediate security threat. The reason for the European countries’ lackluster effort lies not in their war weariness or a miscalculation of their interests but in their vastly diminished military capacity—the result of deep cuts to their defense budgets. Put simply, Washington’s European allies no longer have the strength to conduct and sustain even medium-sized military operations. Europe’s military spending plummeted after the Cold War, and the recent recession has prompted five consecutive years of further cuts in absolute terms. The defense budgets of most NATO nations now stand at their lowest point since 2001, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Currently, only Estonia, Greece, and the United Kingdom meet NATO’s mutually agreed-upon target for defense spending—defined as two percent of GDP—even though member states reaffirmed their commitment to that target at a NATO summit in September. In fact, it underscores Europe’s declining military clout by demonstrating that EU countries can mount a successful military operation only under a best-case scenario. The disappointing European contribution to Operation Inherent Resolve offers several lessons. The tepid response highlights just how far European military capabilities have deteriorated. Even though some states have made modest increases to their defense budgets in response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine, these changes fall far short of reversing Europe’s military decline. The continued stagnation of European economies, dismal demographic trends, and lack of political will make the resurrection of Europe as a military power nearly impossible for the foreseeable future. Finally, the war on ISIS underscores Washington’s unique global position of leadership when it comes to defending the West. Its allies count on it to project power globally and even to come to their aid when they cannot defend themselves. For all its budget woes, political gridlock, and desire to pivot away from the world’s problems, the

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United States will continue to find itself doing the heavy lifting—whether combating ISIS or deterring a recidivist Russia—for the foreseeable future. Simply put, there is no one else. --- RAPHAEL COHEN and GABRIEL SCHEINMANN are defense analysts in Washington, D.C.

Published time: March 18, 2015 Russia is getting ready to counteract and repel land-sea-air military aggression on its western, northern, southern and eastern borders simultaneously, as massive drills of all military branches are underway across Russia. Motorized infantry, combat aviation and Spetznaz troops have been put on alert in all nine time zones of the Russian Federation, including the Volga region, Urals, Western Siberia, the Far East region and the Pacific, the North Caucasus and along the borders of NATO member states from the Arctic through to the Baltic and Black Sea. The ongoing military drills are taking place concurrently with US military exercises in the Baltic region and NATO naval drills in the Black Sea. Russia has notified the countries of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) of the Northern Fleet exercises that are happening March 16-21, Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov announced on Tuesday. The operational zone of the Northern Fleet's drills has been expanded to the Norwegian Sea, and the number of deployed naval task groups has been increased to five, the Defense Ministry reported. "The commanding staff of the Northern Fleet has decided to build up the contingent involved in training missions to defend Russia's borders in the Arctic," the ministry said in a statement. More than 20 ships of the Russia’s Baltic Fleet are out at sea conducting defense drills, the Russian Western Military District’s press service announced on Wednesday. The ships, deployed in several tactical groups, are performing artillery, anti-submarine and air defense exercises. Part of the training has been assigned for nighttime.

A tactical group of the Russian Black Sea fleet will hold military exercises on Thursday, targeting decoy enemy bombers and battleships. Paratroopers from the Ivanovo Airborne Division have been relocated inside the Arctic Circle next to the Norwegian border on Ilyushin Il-76 airlifters to train countering subversive groups, maintain anti-aircraft defense, perform engineering and radiation reconnaissance and sharpen field camouflage skills. The Defense Ministry reported on Wednesday that Russian marines from Temryuk in south Russia's Krasnodar region have been put on full combat readiness and are training next to the Kerch Strait connecting the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. The units are conducting exercises in conditions similar to real military activities, using simulation tools to train counteracting subversive groups and repelling enemy amphibious assault landings. Russia’s strategic command has put mechanized troops of the Eastern Military District, deployed on the island of Sakhalin in the Pacific, on the highest levels of combat alert. Up to 3,000 troops and nearly 1,000 military vehicles are training defense of the coast in close cooperation with the Air Force. Over 30 army aviation crews are being relocated from airfields in the Leningrad and Smolensk regions to a military airfield in the Arctic. Mil Mi-24 and Mi-8 helicopters are set to cover over 1,500 kilometers with a stopover for refueling in the Karelia region. About 80 military pilots of the Eastern Command are taking part in ‘Airdarts’ contest that includes performing air stunts, bomb-dropping and unguided missiles firing, using Su-25,

Su-27SM, Su-24M2 assault and fighter jets. Assault helicopter pilots are training live ammo shooting, ultra-low flying and evading air defenses. Over 2,000 engineer troops and 350 special vehicles of the Central Military Command are training in demining all types of military explosives, using brand-new standoff IED detection vehicles. The ongoing snap check of the military involves about 38,000 troops, 3,360 units of military hardware, 41 battleships, 15 submarines, 110 warplanes and helicopters. In December 2014, Russia's Defense Ministry announced plans to conduct at least 4,000 military drills in 2015.

MOSCOW (AP) — Russia plans to station state-of-the art missiles in its westernmost Baltic exclave and deploy nuclear-capable bombers to Crimea as part of massive war games to showcase its resurgent military power amid bitter tensions with the West over Ukraine. The Russian military exercises this week range from the Arctic to the Pacific Ocean and involve tens of thousands of troops, the Defense Ministry said Tuesday. The Iskander missiles will be sent to the Kaliningrad region that borders NATO members Poland and Lithuania as part of the maneuvers, said a Defense Ministry official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he wasn't authorized to comment publicly. The official also said Russia will deploy long-range, nuclear-capable Tu-22M3 bombers to Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that Russia annexed from Ukraine a year ago. In a statement, the Defense Ministry said the Baltic Fleet, the Southern Military District and the Airborne Forces have been brought to the highest stage of combat readiness and have started moving to shooting ranges as part of the drills.

Regards Cees Where the West takes 10 years time to re-establisg the 2% GDP to their military budget, Russia plans within the next 10 years- by 2024 a: Future Russian army that could deploy anywhere in the world – in 7 hours 5 : March 19, 2015 In the future, a fleet of heavy transport aircraft will reportedly be capable of moving a strategic unit of 400 Armata tanks, with ammunition, to anywhere in the world. And probably at hypersonic speed, enabling Russia to mount a global military response. According to a new design specification from the Military-Industrial Commission in Moscow, a transport aircraft, dubbed PAK TA, will fly at supersonic speeds (up to 2,000 km/h) and will boast an impressively high payload of up to 200 tons. It will also have a range of at least 7,000 kilometers. The PAK TA program envisages 80 new cargo aircraft to be built by 2024.

This means in a decade Russia’s Central Command will be able to place a battle-ready armored army anywhere, Expert Online reports, citing a source in the military who attended the closed meeting. “With the development of a network of military bases in the Middle East, Latin America and Southeast Asia, which is expected to be completed during the same

time period (by 2024), it’s obvious that Russia is preparing for a full-scale military confrontation of transcontinental scale,” Expert Online says.

Putin Mobilizes Forces Preparing to Fight With NATO and US

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March 19, 2015 -- Volume 12, Issue 51 This week (March 16–21), the Russian military began massive, “sudden” military exercises (“vnezapnaya proverka”). The authorities initially announced that the “sudden exercises” are intended to check out the battle readiness of Russia’s Northern Fleet and the possibility of reinforcing it with forces from other military districts. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, 38,000 soldiers, 3,360 military vehicles, 41 navy ships, 15 submarines and 110 aircraft are involved in the exercise. The mass deployment of air and naval forces in the Barents Sea practices ensuring the safety of Russian nuclear missile–armed submarines, which have to be defended at all costs before they launch their hundreds of nuclear warheads at the United States. The military plans to land marines and paratroopers on the shore of the Kola Peninsula close to the Norwegian border and on the polar archipelagos of Novaya Zemlya and Franz Josef Land. According to a defense ministry source, the “sudden exercise” was intended to send a message to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) that Russia is ready for war and can counter with force the deployment of limited US and other NATO forces to the Baltic, Romania, Poland and Bulgaria. Moscow, apparently, did not give Western nations any prior notification about the exercise (Vedomosti, March 17). On March 18, the Russian defense minister, Army-General Sergei Shoigu, announced that the “sudden exercises,” though centered on the North Fleet, will in effect cover most of Russia's national territory, with action in the Baltic region, the Black Sea and Crimea, the Far East, and central Russia. The transport air command, long-range strategic bomber command, strategic rocket forces, and the Airborne troops (VDV) will be involved. Shoigu’s first deputy, the chief of the General Staff, Army-General Valery Gerasimov, is directly in charge of the “sudden exercises,” and a special high-ranking operational staff headed by Gerasimov has been deployed to the Kola Peninsula. According to Shoigu, the “sudden exercises” are more massive in scope than previously announced: 76,000 soldiers, 65 navy ships, 15 submarines and over 200 military aircraft (Mil.ru, March 18). Marines of the Black Sea Fleet have been mobilized into full battle readiness in Crimea and the North Caucasus’ Taman Peninsula. Russian defense forces in Crimea have been reinforced by ten Tu-22M3 “Backfire” strategic bombers and “a motor-rifle brigade from the Central military district” (Interfax, March 18). Russian forces in the Kaliningrad exclave on the Baltic have been reinforced with jet fighters and bombers from the Russian mainland. A “source in the defense ministry” told Russian state news agencies: “Baltic Fleet landing assault ships are tasked to deliver Iskander ballistic missiles for deployment in Kaliningrad.” During previous military exercises in 2014, Iskander missiles have been temporarily deployed in Kaliningrad, but this was announced after they were reportedly shipped out. The Iskander is capable of delivering a half-ton conventional or a nuclear warhead with high precision at a reported maximum range of 500 kilometers. The Iskanders from the Kaliningrad exclave can hit any target inside Poland, much of the Baltic states, and parts of Germany and the Czech and Slovak republics—all of them being NATO members. The announcement of Iskanders deployed in a forward position aimed at Europe and the deliberate ambiguity about the intention to keep them in Kaliningrad permanently or to withdraw after the end of the “sudden exercises” are intended, according to Russian commentators, as an “information attack” to intimidate Europeans (Regnum, March 17). This week, Russia is also celebrating with much official pomp the one-year anniversary of the annexation of Crimea. March 18, has been made a regional public holiday in Crimea, and State Duma deputies have proposed to make March 18, a national holiday—The Day of the

Unification of Russian Lands. The process of “unification” may not be over and may involve other territories with Russian-speaking populations: parts of Ukraine and the Baltic republics of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. According to Duma foreign affairs committee chairman Alexei Pushkov, “In Lithuania, the authorities say they fear Russian aggression and need to hold out three days before NATO reinforcements arrive—that is clearly warmongering” (Rbctv, March 17). In turn, the Lithuanian parliament, this week, rushed through a law to reinstate conscription, which was abolished in 2008. According to the Lithuanian defense ministry, conscription will allow the country to increase the number of soldiers and help form a reserve force (Interfax, March 19). In a propaganda film aired on prime time by Russia state TV, on March 15, President Vladimir Putin announced that a decision to take over Crimea was taken in the morning of March 23, 2014 (see EDM, March 17). To ensure the Crimea takeover, Russian special forces soldiers, marines and paratroopers were secretly deployed as well as new Bastion batteries with Yahont land-based supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles to fend off the US and NATO navies. According to Putin, the Kremlin was not sure the West would not intervene to prevent the occupation of Crimea and was ready to use nuclear weapons as a measure of last resort: “We were ready for the worst case scenario, but hoped it would not happen.” Putin added: “Our nukes are always ready for action” (Rossiyskaya Gazeta, March 16). The massive “sudden exercises” of the Russian military this week carry a clear message: Moscow is not ready to stand down and is threatening the use of force, including nuclear weapons. A ceasefire is holding in Ukraine at present, but it is wobbly, and the status quo on the ground does not satisfy Russian long-term aspirations. At a mass state-organized rally to commemorate Crimea’s annexation on March 18, in Moscow close to the Kremlin, Putin declared: “Russians and Ukrainians are one people” (odin narod) (Kremlin.ru, March 18). In September 2013, the present Ukrainian crisis was still in the making, triggered by Kyiv’s desire to sign an association agreement with the European Union, which Putin utterly opposed. Speaking to reporters in the Kremlin, Putin announced: “No matter what happens, or where Ukraine goes, anyway someday we will be together [as one nation], because we are one people” (Kremlin.ru, September 4, 2013). Putin’s continued assertion of Russians and Ukrainians as “one people” sounds much alike one of the Nazis’ most-repeated political slogans: “Ein Volk, ein Reich, ein Führer”—“One People, One Empire, One Leader.” In pursuit of a dream of the reunification of all the presumed Russian peoples, nuclear blackmail or “brinkmanship” may be used and sudden military exercises will be enacted that are, in essence, direct preparations for possible large-scale war in Europe.

--Pavel FelgenhauerPutin must make war, but not in UkraineGuru Ramakrishnan believes that by agreeing to lead a coalition war against Islamic State, the Russian leader could get the crippling economic sanctions lifted and ease tensions over Ukraine, thus securing his legacyThe world needs a robust solution to two concurrent geopolitical problems which have imposed a latent tax on global trade and growth. The ballooning threat of Islamic State in the Middle East and the escalating Russian-Ukrainian conflict need swift action and resolution. Both these developments have posed a foreign policy quandary for the West and require unusual dexterity and out-of-the-box thinking by the Nato countries to resolve.

At this stage in the game of Russian roulette, Vladimir Putin should focus on his legacy and how history will judge his impact as the leader of Russia. During the past 12 months, Russia's economic crisis has steadily deteriorated.But, just a little while ago, things did look rosy under Putin's leadership. The Russian economy saw marked economic improvements across the board. Russia embraced free market reforms, engaged in open trade and focused on delivering growth for its people. During this era, real per capita incomes for Russians doubled. The economy averaged gross domestic product growth rates of 4.5 per cent and unemployment in the country came down from 14 per cent in 1998 to 5.2 per cent in 2013. With the help of the central bank, inflation was swiftly curtailed from 80 per cent in 1998 to a more manageable 6.5 per cent by December 2013.All this hard work by Putin and his economic team went awry in 2014, due to Russia's decision to annex Crimea, together with their recent proxy war in Eastern Ukraine. Much to his chagrin, the economic sanctions imposed by the West have now crippled the Russian economy, contrary to Russian belief.Is there a viable exit strategy for Russia? One way out is through working with the United Nations to help lead ground troops into Iraq/Syria to battle Islamic State. This solution will require Russia to commit ground troops. Rather than engaging in a ground war with Ukraine - its closest trading partner - Russia should refocus its efforts on leading the UN, Iranian, Syrian and US-trained Iraqi forces to put an end to the global terrorist threat of Islamic State.Syria and Iran will agree to such a coalition on account of their long-term relationship with Russia and their immediate need to remove Islamic State from their own backyards. Once the Islamic State threat is eradicated, the UN-led coalition should ensure Russia's orderly withdrawal from the Middle East.The strong global coalition led by Russia's military, adequately bolstered by state-of-the-art US technology, would give this mission the highest probability of success (absent outright US involvement). It's worth remembering that the last time US and Russia worked together, during the second world war, to fight a common enemy, it resulted in a victory for the Allies. Because this is a global battle, the rest of the world should step forward to help finance it. In return for Russia's commitment to fight this war, Europe and the US should agree to lift economic sanctions on Russia.One of the conditions for doing so should be the tangible enforcement of the permanent ceasefire in Ukraine, which has been agreed to but not abided by both countries under the Minsk II agreement. This negotiated ceasefire should be strictly enforced by UN peacekeeping forces, which must be stationed in Eastern Ukraine for at least five years.The war with Islamic State that Russia would be asked to lead is similar to the ongoing internal battle with the separatist Chechen movement of the 1990s.Outsourcing this battle to a UN/Russia-led coalition solves US President Barack Obama's difficulty of having to commit American ground troops and getting involved in another expensive war. Even the Senate and House Republicans are reluctant to commit boots on the ground. However, there seems to be more appetite among US voters for sending advisers to aid the fight against Islamic State.The lifting of economic sanctions would give Russian banks and corporations the flexibility to access the debt capital markets and secure dollar funding. It would also open up imports of hi-tech capital equipment back into Russia, which would be welcomed. Eliminating sanctions would also help in several ways: to reduce Russia's risk premium in financial markets; stabilise the rouble; stem capital outflows from the country, possibly even reverse the flow; and enable the central bank to lower interest rates, thereby stimulating economic growth.

These actions will eventually help the battered Russian consumer by lowering inflation. The successful implementation of this unconventional solution could elevate the perception of Putin as a global leader and restore Russia's now-pariah status within the G8.If Putin took the time to contemplate, he would quickly recognise that Russia has made more economic progress under him than any other Soviet leader in the past. He would want the history books to acknowledge this. This path would help set aside the perception that he is driven by ego and demonstrate that he is focused instead on what is right for Russia.This solution would be an elegant way for him to rewrite the history books and secure a firm place as a global leader who made a material difference during a critical juncture for the world. Guru Ramakrishnan is the chief executive officer of Meru Capital Group

The Islamic State Threat in Central Asia: Reality or Spin? Ryskeldi Satke, Casey Michel and Sertaç Canalp Korkmaz The threat of Islamist radicalism in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia has been a topic of debate among the analyst community for many years, especially following the 9/11 attacks in the United States. In recent months, interest in the topic has surged again, in part because Russia and Central Asian governments have publicly warned of the possible spillover from the ongoing instability from Afghanistan, combined with reports of Central Asians joining the Islamic State organization in Iraq and Syria (RFE/RL, December 11, 2014). Opinions over the extent of this threat vary, however; for instance, human rights organizations have cautioned that regional government’s renewed focus on the Islamist threat comes as human rights in Central Asia deteriorate (Human Rights Watch, January 29). Others, however, have argued that the Islamic State organization represents a genuine “potential direct threat to Russia” and other regional states (al-Jazeera, December 1). The aim of this article is to assess the threat posed by Islamist militancy in the Central Asian region, with particular reference to the Islamic State. Terrorism Monitor is a publication of the Jamestown Foundation. March 20, 2015 Volume XIII, Issue 6

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