By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-122-Caliphate-al-Zawahiri-10-3

The End of al-Qaeda, By Aimen Dean; Sources within Ahrar al-Sham stated that their allies in Jabhat al-Nusra have told them that AQ leader Ayman al-Zawahiri will relinquish his

authority – or what left of it – over AQ branches globally and absolve them of their allegiance to him.

There are emerging reports that worldwide renowned terrorist group, Al-Qaeda, will soon be disbanding so that its members can be free from their oath of loyalty to the group and join the Islamic State jihadist group. The claims are yet to be confirmed by al-Qaeda but it is believed that the group has lost significance in the past couple of years due to the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria that has been able to declare an Islamic State in its controlled territories.

C: It's a classic military mistake to leave a partially defeated enemy on the battlefield in one form or another -- let them survive; -- “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need

not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you

will succumb in every battle.” ― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

“ISIS is not the problem for America and the West. ISIS is the problem for the Middle East. Al-Qaeda will continue to be the problem for western states ,” The plight of Christians in the Middle East was ignored by the world in general because “the West is ignoring this,” said --- Catholic Chorbishop Faris 1; a Knight Commander with Star in the Equestrian Order. That Catholic order dates to the First Crusade in 1096.

C: So why would Ayman al-Zawahiri, an extremely intelligent and careful man who was more instrumental in the planning of 9/11 than Bin Laden himself, and managed to survive almost 50 years of serving in Islamist terrorist organizations notorious for their attrition rates, come out after two years – late Sep - of media silence to announce such an apparently quixotic bid; AQIS? Because AQIS isn’t so much for now, about India – it’s about preserving al-Qaeda’s safe havens in Pakistan and Afghanistan; the area of the “Core”. Moreover from there it can watch events evolving, let Daesh do – a phase of the planned fight, others grown up and be able to stand on their own feet to become a to be reckoned with fact in their region, but foremost plan accordingly for the things ahead.

C: 2 Lt. Gen. Mike Flynn, the former director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, according to the transcript of an interview with Fox News anchor Bret Baier for a coming Fox News Reporting special. “We were still facing a growing al Qaeda threat. And it was not just Pakistan and Afghanistan and Iraq. But we saw it growing in Yemen. We clearly saw it growing still in East Africa.” The threat “wasn’t going away,” he adds, “and we wanted to know: What can we learn from these documents?” At precisely the time Mr. Obama was campaigning on the imminent death of al Qaeda, those with access to the bin Laden documents were seeing, in bin Laden’s own words, that the opposite was true. Says Lt. Gen. Flynn: “By that time, they probably had grown by about—I’d say close to doubling by that time. And we knew that.” This wasn’t what the Obama White House wanted to hear. So the

1 http://triblive.com/news/westmoreland/7992112-74/faris-christians-east2 http://www.wsj.com/articles/stephen-hayes-and-tomas-joscelyn-how-america-was-misled-on-al-qaedas-demise-1425600796

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administration cut off DIA access to the documents and instructed DIA officials to stop producing analyses based on them. -- March 2015, How America Was Misled on al Qaeda’s Demise. The White House portrait of a crumbling terror group is contradicted by documents seized in the bin Laden raid.

C: “The core is the core belief that these individuals have 3.”LT. General Michael Flynn, outgoing head of the Defense Intelligence Agency recently told an audience at the Aspen Institute that the ideology of Al Qaeda was “expanding,” and that Al Qaeda was not “on the run” as the Obama Administration had repeatedly insisted during the 2012 election. Flynn said, “It’s not on the run, and that ideology is actually, it’s sadly, it feels like it’s exponentially growing,”July 2014.

- Under Flynn, the DIA has been one of the few intelligence agencies to hold the line against the Obama Administration’s popular, if delusional, reimagining of the threat. As Eli Lake noted in a Daily Beast article discussing the connections between Al Qaeda and Boko Haram: The dispute inside the intelligence community falls along familiar lines about al Qaeda. The White House has emphasized the distinctions between al Qaeda’s core and its affiliates and other aspiring jihadists, who the White House sees as operating almost entirely independent of the central group.

- However, another faction inside the U.S. intelligence community—one that comprises the current leadership of the Defense Intelligence Agency and others working in the military—see al Qaeda as a flatter organization that coordinates between nodes and operates through consensus in the model of an Islamic Shura council.

- The idea that DIA should need to wage an rearguard action around a concept as basic as the fact that Al Qaeda is organized along shariah-prescribed lines, is itself an example of how badly we have failed to understand the enemy’s stated threat doctrine.

- While Flynn does not say so, the reason the ideology of Al Qaeda has expanded is we have failed to directly combat it. We have failed in combating the ideology, as the direct result of influence operations waged against U.S. policy making by affiliates of the Muslim Brotherhood, which has resulted in the purge of U.S. trainers who understood the enemy doctrine, leaving U.S policymakers, and law enforcement and intelligence officials unprepared.

- One quibble however. LTG Flynn warns that Hamas ought not to be destroyed, as there is a risk that the Islamist groups that would replace it would some how be “worse.” There is not any substantial difference in ideological doctrine between the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, and the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham they are all based upon the Shariah. Saying that Hamas must survive because ISIS is worse is the same kind of mistaken thinking that permitted some to argue that we could work with the Muslim Brotherhood to serve as a bulwark against Al Qaeda.

There is no major doctrinal disagreement between Hamas and Al Qaeda, or ISIS. Hamas hailed Osama bin Laden as a “holy warrior” when he was killed by U.S. forces. The Muslim Brotherhood also recognized Bin Laden’s role as a legitimate jihadist. The godfather of both Al Qaeda and Hamas was Muslim Brother and Islamic Jurist named Abdullah Azzam. -- Without understanding the nature of the enemy’s threat doctrine and its primary thinkers (Like Azzam), we will not be successful in defeating it.

The End of al-Qaeda 4, By Aimen DeanApril 5, Sources within Ahrar al-Sham stated that their allies in Jabhat al-Nusra have told them that AQ leader Ayman al-Zawahiri will relinquish his authority – or what left of it –

3 http://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/2014/07/30/flynn-is-right-ideology-is-the-problem/4 http://jihadology.net/2015/04/04/guest-post-the-end-of-al-qaeda/

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over AQ branches globally and absolve them of their allegiance to him. The move was in response to the rising power of Islamic State in Iraq, Syria, Egypt, Libya and Nigeria as well as new IS incursion into Yemen. AQ and Zawahiri can no longer offer any meaningful leadership and the trend among the two strongest and largest AQ branches (al-Nusra and AQAP) is that the association with AQ is no longer an asset when it come to local conflicts in Syria and Yemen, instead it is a hindrance and a liability. While Zawahiri and AQ central command have been ineffective and side lined since the start of 2014 and with the rise of the IS, nevertheless they provided moral and legitimate voice for al- Nusra and AQAP in the face of IS expansion. The immediate implication for such move (once it happens) is that al-Nusra would be free to establish wider alliances within Syria and open the door again for its plans for an Islamic Emirate in northern Syria after Idlib was taken with the help of Ahrar al-Sham. The move will also help AQAP to abandon the al-Qaeda name and adopt once and for all the new name of “Ansar al-Sharia”. Both groups possess their own funding mechanism and have been (for several years) free financially from al-Qaeda Central Command. Nonetheless dissolving al-Qaeda will be seen as the end of an era and the beginning of a new chapter for both al-Nusra and AQAP (Ansar al-Sharia). AQIM were already dissolving and merging with other regional groups across the Sahara/North African region, therefore there will be limited strategic or logistical impact from this announcement. -- Aimen Dean is a founder member of al-Qaeda, who changed tack in 1998 and became a spy for Britain’s security and intelligence services, MI5 and MI6. C; what would it be nice and a success if it became truth but what if Taqiyya, or, do we remember 2008, Nov: Army interpreter Daniel James, who worked for Britain's top general in Afghanistan, has been found guilty of spying for Iran. The Iranian-born corporal translated for the head of multi-national forces, General David Richards. The court heard he sent coded messages to an Iranian military attache in Kabul, saying: "I am at your service". .. Ok it is complex but allow me to try to explain.

C: ISIS has declared itself a “Caliphate,” which refers to an Islamic form of government led by an authoritative power considered a successor to the Muslim prophet Muhammad. Braniff says ISIS sees the growth of its Caliphate as “the means to the end of a final, decisive military confrontation with the West.” Zarate, author of “Treasury’s War: The Unleashing of a New Era of Financial Warfare,” says ISIS is “piggy-backing” off the work of al-Qaeda and beginning to advance the global agenda of Sharia rule.

C: Looking through the Fog of War, my initial thoughts to AQ ends. Is it dissolving, relinquish his authority over “them” who have matured, the student that can stand on his own feet, and the Vanguard (AQSL) has donned his job well? The named main affiliates grown to an extent that they can survive and take lead in their region is not weakness of those who have led them, to the contrary; a strategic success. Moreover, a strategic - VERY - worrisome development. The strong statement that AQSL will dissolve itself is a bit to far out, - it will serve them well falling of the radar after We party the Dismantle and Defeat success, in my eyes very stupid and dangerous! - the Vanguard has still many other places – the Arab theatre and parts of Africa is a small peace of the dar- al-Islam let alone, the dar al Harb, to graph them all needs vision and strategy, the story above tells me AQ has it, I still do question if Daesh has the same long-term strategic vision and breaths - to lead them to the well of global peace: end-state global caliphate. On the strategic level this could and should be seen as a sign of the old vanguards efforts are working, and yes the student starts a new era: but still with the (initial AQSL) end-state in their strategic aim; Caliphate . One the other hand we need to ask the question, what is the man – Zawahiri – going to do if some of the above becomes thru; he is not going to lie down on the beach and retire, his vision and dreams lay far behind the area Daesh is currently given all the credit. And let there be no question, it

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is more than likely that Daesh will see their downfall in the not so far out, it is “he” who than picks up the pieces and continues with the vision, in my opinion still AQSL. Moreover the current All” is Daesh is a typical press phenomena, it is who will stand at the end, AQSL released from its grown-up affiliates gives them much time for the evaluating, and planning process, there are other so far underdeveloped area to be guided: Central, -South,- and South-East Asia. Last Sep the initial move was made, but as the so-called 2020 plan a decade ago again ridiculed. If the afore makes sense we need to be on the watch, other students could been given the right guidance and leading and grow to a stand on their own….... . It’s not the Battle to be won. It’s the war to win and sustain their end-state vision of lasting peace: under sharia globally. This battle may be won by Daesh but their failing will give room for those who have time to wait, as Zawahiri made clear many times it needs to be able to sustain after the fights are over; Daesh upsetting parts of the Ummah is far from that.

This is what I wrote reviewing 2014, and limited distributed in early 2015: BOTTOM LINE OP FRONT

C: So far Five out of Seven Phases of Al Qaeda’s grand plan came to fruition, and should give us reason for concern 5. The question to ask here is the latest – Paris - a revenge attack for Blasphemy of the Prophet, although mentioned or an initial indicator of transit into their – al Qaeda - next phase of their Seven stage plan, or is the latest event in France an ordinary – but deadly battle for global jihad control, fought out on the soil of the House of War, Disbelieve – dar al-Harb? Daesh, the so-called Islamic State has according to Debkafile an expanding focus of the Near6 and their unbeliever” Muslims and apostate governments; it seems that the Egypt President is on the list to topple next. A threat also voiced by Muslim Brotherhood cleric Salama Abd Al-Qawi who said on Rabea TV; Anyone who kills Egyptian President Abd Al-Fattah Al-Sisi and the journalists who support him would be doing a good dead. Meanwhile, cleric Wagdi Ghoneim told Misr Alan TV that “whoever can bring us the head of one of these dogs and Hell-dwellers,” referring to Sisi and his supporters, would be rewarded by Allah. Interestingly it was Al Zawahiri: who said in the past; "the road to

5 Awakening” Sept 11 Provoke U.S. attack on Muslims, galvanize Jihadism “Opening the Eyes” 2002–2006 Force West on defensive. “Arising and Standing Up” 2007–2010 Assaults on Turkey and Israel. “Downfall of Apostate Muslim regimes” 2010–2013 Saudi Arabia, Jordan, oil -producing countries and 5; “Declaration of Caliphate” 2013–2016 Mobilization of Muslim forces..

6 Waking Up to the New al-Qaeda, Ahmed Rashid The Yemen branch of al-Qaeda should be a particular concern to the West. AQAP is almost as old as the original al-Qaeda organization formed in Afghanistan and Pakistan by Osama bin Laden in the early 1980s. Moreover, in its fundamental aims, AQAP poses a more direct threat to Western targets than ISIS. From its initial rise to power in Iraq and Syria, ISIS has given top priority to the “near enemy,” what it views as the corrupt secular Arab regimes of the Middle East. AQAP has maintained the original al-Qaeda aim of attacking the “far enemy”—Western countries and Western capitalism—in order to bring about the collapse of Arab regimes. In other words, the Paris attacks could dramatically change the way Western governments operate, which is exactly what the old al-Qaeda tried to do when it attacked the twin towers in New York. AQAP will continue to make this its strategic aim—to bring Western capitalism to its knees. ISIS represents an extraordinary threat of its own, but the Paris attacks have demonstrated that the greatest danger to the West is still al-Qaeda. http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2015/jan/12/paris-attacks-waking-al-qaeda/

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Jerusalem passes through Cairo. 7" -- Moreover on 30 Jan 2015 8, The Muslim Brotherhood called for “a long, uncompromising jihad 9” in Egypt just days after a delegation of the Islamist group’s key leaders and allies met with the State Department, according to an official statement released. “It is incumbent upon everyone to be aware that we are in the process of a new phase, where we summon what is latent in our strength, where we recall the meanings of jihad and prepare ourselves, our wives, our sons, our daughters, and whoever marched on our path to a long, uncompromising jihad, and during this stage we ask for martyrdom,” it states.

Also Israel is mentioned – By Daesh, and see footnote for Zawahiri thoughts - to be attacked be it from the north or the south or both. On the other hand both AQIM and AQAP and the late Sep established AQIS are signalling in their latest statements a move from the Near to the Far. It is unknown, though likely that AQSL has sanctioned the start into the next strategic Phase: the confrontation in the Far: dar al-Harb, the house of unbeliever. If as mentioned 5 out of 7 stages are in process or came to some form of completion the latest is not unlikely.

As western intelligence officials have warned for some time now, it is highly likely that the fight will come to Europe, sleeper cells – likely over years trained and positioned - are activated, trained and indoctrinated fighters are returning, with the blasphemy of the prophet opposition in the western and global Muslim communities and their leading clerics growing the conditions are increasing in favour of our enemies: be it Daesh or AQ, the later still has the better cards to do so. If AQ decides to launch their next phase into the west, foreseen culminate 2016-2018, it is likely they could absorb the “Near” Daesh activity into their orbit and become a powerfully and dangerous enemy with growing capabilities and motivated, trained, battle hardened fighters. The killing – by a member state of the US led coalition against them -of Daesh caliph Ibrahim, so far targeted more than once, could be AQ blessing and the turning point in favour of the AQSL. They have the long-term plan and vision and don’t like the current Daesh and its leader. As most of us didn’t notice or ignored Zawahiri who’s main focus is the Far around 2006 shifted – temporarily – the strategic focus from the Far to the Near in a likely move to facilitate phase 3,and 4 to set conditions for Five.

7 Al-Zawahiri expressed his early thought in an article in al-Mujahidun in April 1995. Like bin Laden, Zawahiri, now leader of al Qaida, has long placed targeting Israel farther down the operational totem pole than more immediate targets. In the 1990s, Zawahiri maintained, "the road to Jerusalem passes through Cairo." In other words, Palestine could be liberated only after illegitimate and insufficiently Islamic regimes in places such as Egypt were dealt with. Years later, in a letter to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq, Zawahiri would explain that targeting Israel was a "fourth stage" goal following (or coming at the same time as) the expulsion of Americans from Iraq, the establishment of an Islamic emirate there, and extending the jihad to secular countries neighboring Iraq. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/zawahiri-aims-at-israel-behind-al-Qaidas-pivot-to-the-levant 8 http://freebeacon.com/national-security/open-jihad-declared-in-egypt-following-state-dept-meeting-with-muslim-brotherhood-aligned-leaders/9 8 Feb 2015, Muslim Brotherhood-linked television stations based in Turkey have been calling on supporters to use violent means in Egypt in an attempt to overthrow President Sisi and his army-backed government and return the country to Muslim Brotherhood The official Muslim Brotherhood representative in Turkey, Ashraf Abdulgaffar, made a similar call, advocating a policy of "an eye for an eye." He said: "We are now in the retaliation phase. They [Sisi’s government] must taste pain, because there are traitors. My message to the Egyptian people is this: Stand firm and be ready for all sacrifices and prices to be paid.” Other statements went much further. A “communique” issued by an organization claiming to be the “Revolutionary Youth,” and broadcast on Muslim Brotherhood Rabia TV, threatened to launch terrorist attacks on foreign nationals in Egypt. The televised statement gave all foreign nationals until February 11 to leave Egypt, saying "after that they may become targeted by the movements of revolutionary retribution."

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The key question here could be: do we see the prelude of an AQSL strategic shift into the next strategic phase? Also is Daesh (IS) circling 10 - 11outwards from their main operating area Iraq-Syria, into the wider Middle East, but still addressing the issues in Near? If so, the two different stages and views in strategies complement each other. Or could we make a bold move and say, -- planned, structured, controlled with some kind of coordination, or following the same shied of paper: the plan, or not -- , that while Daesh is consolidating – the caliphate – AQSL strategic phase Five while AQSL and its subordinates – affiliates – is moving in the next strategic phase of the grand plan? If the afore olds some truth we should ask, who’s plan it is and who is really leading? Whatever the outcome, Europe is in trouble. And than there is the consequences of our previous actions, - what I will call 3 rd order effects of them - and interventions in the Muslim countries, be it removing a leader or reacting to an action of one of them. We likely have reached a point where – reluctance for- any further new intervention will only feed the Salafist doctrine even more and backfire on us. Sadly that’s what the AQSL has anticipated taking place when phase five was reached.

Additionally have our political leaders with the declared strategic intent to defeat Daesh envisioned if we succeeds; what next and than what?

http://www.voanews.com/content/india-on-alert-after-al-Qaeda-announces-local-branch/2438207.html

This in April 2015, C: The documents outlining this strategy were published in 2005. Comparing their contents to reality, one realizes that many of the objectives have indeed been achieved: the attacks in New York and Washington in 2001; using Iraq and Afghanistan as a base to build a “jihadi army”; and the subsequent expansion into Syria, and Iraq culminating

10 3 Feb 2015, Lt. Gen. Vincent Stewart, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, made the comments in testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, "he warned about the "spread" of the Islamic State beyond Iraq and Syria, to three other countries "With affiliates in Algeria, Egypt, Libya, the group is beginning to assemble a growing international footprint that includes ungoverned and under-governed areas,.11 http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/4354/isis-jordan ISIS Threatens to Invade Jordan, 'Slaughter' King Abdullah

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with the declaration of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS/ Daesh) in 2013, as was stated in the documents published in 2005. With the current focus on Daesh will al-Qaeda be able to utilize the momentum, by strategic positioning, and planning during being off the Radar”. The so-called walk away, cross-over to Daesh is often explained as furthered weakening; however it cleans the organization of those they took in initially, reluctantly, and strengthens their core and affiliates loyal to them, and contributes to the effort to continue to grow mostly un-noticed in strength all the way to achieving victory in or around 2020? Daesh could see its downfall somewhere soon.

C: Allow me here in a conclusion to address what I initially indicated in my introduction of part 2015,19-132, etc: C; Are we doing the right things and are we doing them right is one of the key questions to be answered during the execution of a military operation based upon a politically approved – mostly by the United Nations - and defined comprehensive end-state strategy. From the aforementioned it should become clear what lays ahead of us, be it by violent or non-violets’ ways the caliphate will return and rise.

Thinking outside the Box: First and foremost contrary to public knowledge Al Qaeda is far from defeat, it may be disrupted I here you say, maybe a bit, also it is been dismantled since the rising of Daesh; - others call ISIS or ISIL - and the self declared caliph Ibrahim, far from it. It’s What many of us are likely not willing to see, as we are told otherwise is that the current events in the Middle East and Africa, yes and to some extend in Central-South Asia and closer to home are still permissive for Al Qaeda’s long term plan.

Let me explain. A decade ago AQSL long-term Seven stage plan – the so-called 2020 plan became known to the public, however ignored and ridiculed by many, as much of other strategic publications, statements and books. In a twist the plan foresaw the Arabic uprising, downfall of apostate western supported rulers” the establishing of a Caliph and an expending of the Jihad to follow, as far as dar –al-Harb: the house of unbeliever: the Western Nations, and they predict an end-state by or around 2020.. Today we see a lot of afore taking place is it not all– currently - under the AQSL flag, its Daesh today many of us say. Whatever Daesh is and threatening of doing it is however a copy of the AQSL plan. Besides that being for most a fact; AQ and its main affiliates are still globally strategically perfect positioned to be able to observe and analyse current events, plan accordingly – for the likely downfall of Daesh and the what next - coordinate and have presence, representation in critical areas of the theatres around the globe. And we even could argue if Daesh is in the AQSL plan part of consolidating the phase: establish the caliphate. The many formed coalitions intended – as they say - to call a halt to expending Daesh in a way supports AQSL intent. Moreover in the likely event that Daesh will come to a halt and be dissolved in one way or the other AQSL could and will fill the void. And continue with their plan and use the changed status quo and many fighters left on the battlefields – and those returning home -to their advantages.

AQSL and Daesh pursue both the same strategic objective by violent means: Global Muslim-Sunni Islam hegemony. The strategy to get there differ,

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AQSL see the first objective to stop the “Far” western influence and presence as step one followed by the “Near” the apostate rulers and the Shia Muslim and non-Muslim populations in Muslim land before moving into the dar al-Harb. For Daesh it is the other way around; local apostate and other Muslims, Christians, and other religions first. Contributing the – sectarian - fire are the two World lead Islamic nations; Iran-Shia and Saudi Arabia-Sunni were and are both involved in more than one way or the other, and although denied it will contribute to sectarian violence and in the long run their today’s actions – as they did in the past - fulfils some of AQSL requirements’; as there is to undermine, destabilise and overthrow Arab rulers, oppose premature and fragile democracy and gain a standing Islam army; parts of it trained by the west as moderates. Not at least to say it will contribute to sectarian divide and worse they could hand up in at each others throat; may well be explained as fulfilment of part of AQSL “Near phase…

With hotspots sparkling up all over the place, a focus on Daesh and growing Iran- and other Sunni countries tension on the rise, it seems that AQSL is off the focus. This in itself is a dangerous development. Be it through to the fact that in many places we have no boots and solid intelligence structure on the ground – anymore, withdrawal etc - in the regions, or to the fact that Daesh is simply in the focus. This lack of tools and focus gives AQSL and it’s affiliates much room to manoeuvre: largely un-noticed. As we in the West have a hard time grasping the undercurrent of today’s events, let alone the impact of the phenomena of the “Caliph” on the region and western foreign fighters, we still have no agreed strategy to address. To the later we still have no grasp on the radicalisation at the home front where – contrary to what we are told; poor social environment, jobless etc -, apparently the talks on the “kitchen table” and family and friends are main contributors to it. Moreover they and the returnees could become the “fifth columns for the next phase of the plan, and AQSL knows, but others to.. Early April the UN reported: More than 25,000 foreign fighters from 100 nations have travelled to join militant groups such as al-Qaeda and Islamic State (IS), a UN report says. And although we see, ear and talk the atrocities, beheadings, burning, raping and selective targeting not only Sunnis Muslim v.s. Shia Muslim but also Christians we still seems to look away for action.

The problem is not Daesh alone it’s much more complex, diverse and we need to understand fast as they start knocking on our western doors – or strategic economical gateways - and have seen already what that could mean. Moreover they have told us so.

As mentioned the problem is not alone AQ and Daesh – but it seems that due to them using violence they are on the radar, as there are others who claim to pursue by so far non-violent the caliphate. Two of the main are the Muslim Brotherhood and Hizb ut-Tahrir. The MB - founded in Egypt in 1928 by the Islamic scholar and schoolteacher Hassan al-Banna, and officially renounced political violence in 1949; so far, - however in the discovered plan: The 1982 document the Project centred around a secret 100-year plan to subjugate the world under Islam and were supposed to be kept hidden from

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people outside the organization, equals Usama bin Ladens saying that it would take one hundred years to restore the Caliphate; the Ottoman Empire was dissolved in 1922.

HuT, objective means bringing the Muslims back to living an Islamic way of life in Dar al-Islam and in an Islamic society such that all of life's affairs in society are administered according to the Shari'ah rules, and the viewpoint in it is the halal and the haram under the shade of the Islamic State, which is the Khilafah State. Hizb ut-Tahrir states its aim as unification of all Muslim nations over time in a unitary Islamic state or caliphate, headed by an elected caliph.

Western Pol/Mi leaders have stated that the AQ and Daesh problem; although still not defined and agreed, will not go away and could take decades to address, surprisingly not much action is put to the words so far. Moreover they have in no way addressed the “silent” pursue of the caliphate by the MB and HuT. So far AQ and Daesh are currently mainly operating far from home; we think. The MB and HuT do have a large representation and membership in our home countries and in some cases they are consulted – as peaceful advisers on Muslim affairs - up to the highest diplomatic level in our nations. Seeking help could have resulted in opening the door for: Taqiyya and manipulation.

Disturbingly when realisation of the problems at hand sinks in we likely call in our forces to clean up the mess political leadership have made. However over the last years we have seen that the regular armies of the countries involved, be it trained by western advisers for years are still not up to the task to halt Daesh and it likings. Many of these mostly Middle eastern have and still do -build their armies to fight the conventional way of war, they forgot or did not reacted to the events in irregular warfare taking place for the last decades. Closer to home many years of financial reductions have nearly decimated our own forces capabilities, with the clear and present threat in front of us still no urgency other than it will be addressed in ten years to come is noted. Sadly we still don’t get it that when we or regional alliances act against one group, countries leaders ’Saddam, Kaddafi etc, or the other’s it is AQ that in 3rd

order effect is able to exploit the situation and void, as there is south east Yemen and other hot bed theatres. Moreover our actions could serve someone’s “silent” purpose and agenda.

Sadly even today we still have not understood, addressed, defined, and agreed what the threat exactly is,- to some extend we see and notice those who are acting violently – even at home -, but still the “silent” groups we don’t, - who we fight and how to address in a comprehensive way. Our previous and current actions have led to strange things – even unlawfully, as there is today an Arab Coalition invading in a sovereign country like Yemen without any formal mandate. Additionally reluctance to have western

boots on the ground has led us to deal with so-called replacement armies, “moderates” or

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other” militias the past and even presence has shown that’s not the smartest thing to do, we do it anyway.

Finally we underestimate our enemy, and to be crystal clear not every Muslim be it Sunni or Shia is a friend from IS (Daesh) or Al Qaeda salafist jihads ideology. But they could well be part of the so-called “silent group”; as many Muslims and western liked leaders stay silent after main attacks or atrocities committed. Just think this for a moment, the beheading of the Christina Egyptian Copts on the beach in northern Libya was bad, however the reactions form the Muslim Ummah was relatively silent; what if the executioners would have been Christian?

We may reach the point where we have to admit not to have the political will, – or being able – to formulate an answer and have tools and means to address the growing phenomena; with Daesh a declared and others on pursue of the caliphate. We failed to identify and take measures accordingly and the consequences will be devastating: if we think 9/11, London, Madrid, Boston, Paris, Westgate, Mumbai, the Kenya and other school attacks, etc are bad just wait for Salafist ideology or what form of Sharia rule.

Both AQSL and Daesh made no secret that it is their pursued end-state. But also others do.. The MB - founded in Egypt in 1928 in the discovered plan: The 1982 document the Project centred on a secret 100-year plan; simple math tells me that we have 13 years left.

All with the exception of Hut have a near similar time-line to establish the global end state it all comes together somewhere around the early 2020, They all do pursue the caliphate; we knew, but failed to address..

Regards Cees in the interim phase . Think Tank Feb 2015: Wake Up Europe ISIS is Closing In; An Independent think tank from Italy is advising full deployment of military forces to counteract the rise of the Islamic State which is now in the process of uniting Libya and threatening Europe 12.Europe, Saudis sitting back on ISIS threat 13 ISIS is a huge threat to Europe and the Saudis. Both have huge weapons inventories, yet neither seems willing to get involved in stopping ISIS. They would much rather sit back. They expect American kids to do most of the fighting and dying and American taxpayers to pick up the tab, as has been the case for the past 40 years. At what point will they get involved? They won’t, so long as America continues to do all the heavy lifting in this conflict.

Cees, the Author Having served in my National army and seen many places and different assignments all over the World, I watched and followed the ever changing world order after the so-called end of the Cold War and the difficulties for many of us to understand or see what’s happening. The Bi-polar World was for me as intelligence officer a relative easy way of analyzing the intent. We were well trained and educated in the conduct of war and way on thinking of our opponents. The fact that there were politic/military doctrines to be studied and learned made, although still complex my way of life simple once you understood: know the enemy. Today however we have a complete different Global picture and a far more complex world. Partially debit to our slipping knowledge and understanding is due to a constant reduction of our intelligence apparatus – part of the so-called peace dividend and economical

12 http://www.dailysquib.co.uk/world/11468-think-tank-wake-europe-isis-closing.html13 http://newsok.com/europe-saudis-sitting-back-on-isis-threat/article/5397137

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situations in many of our countries. Additionally and although our enemy struck – as they call it: the Far enemy - in many of our home towns we still lack a comprehensive approach and more worrisome a definition on who we fight. In military term we say threat equals intent and capabilities, our current enemy has mentioned in many publications and statements what they are going to do and how they going to do it. We in the Western world however have responded with ridiculing these statements and publications or even worse ignored them. For me my attention was drawn to our current enemy and their way of life and thinking with the first declaration of war under Usama bin Laden; published in August 1996 - "Declaration of War against the Americans Occupying the Land of the Two Holy Places". - and the second in February 1998 - The World Islamic Front is the organization that issued the World Islamic Front Statement of 23 February 1998, "Jihad Against Jews and Crusaders",, and a bit later when the Taliban in Afghanistan advantaged with the speed of light. Declaration or as they say, Fatwa – ruling- is widely regarded by terrorism experts as the founding document of what become al Qaeda (Qaida) .

What draw my attention and urged me to start reading what ever I could was do to the fact that they spoke of things that was beyond my knowledge. I heard and read the words but did not understand so I looked deep into what do they mean with words like: Battle of Badr, in the Trenches, awakening, Ummah, Shia-Sunni rivalry14, vanguard, apostate, infidel, tafkir, hijra, dawa, hesba, the different types of Jihad, salafist,- doctrine etc, to understand and put in perspective what it was what they are really saying. My military postings in theatres gave me the opportunity to talk with locals who have a different look as we through our western glasses. One thing became clear to me and in many cases surprised me; they have a fait and a strong relation with their religion that we have lost centuries ago. They also talked with me about the more dark side of all of this, the jihadist/extremist Salafy ideology and how elements tweak it into their advantage. In this document -2015 part 106 - I will try to show how jihadist or as others say salafi: also known as the Salafi methodology and the Salafist movement came about - The popular hadith that quotes Muhammad as saying 'The people of my own generation are the best, then those who come after them, and then those of the next generation,' is seen as a call to Muslims follow the example of those first three generations, the salaf - ideology is becoming a more driving force in the modern theatres and find resonance in many –to include western - Muslim youths. Also our enemy bases much of their conduct on their way of interpretation of the Holy Koran and Islamic jurisprudence, again sadly enough the willing hear is there and growing, awakening, opening the eyes was one of the first orders given by UBL in his strategy to the path of defeat of the West and establish the old ruler: a caliph. – The extremist Salafi follows "literal, traditional ... injunctions of the sacred texts", this drives extremist’s ideology way of thinking and they have a vision, and plan. My documents will be an effort to explain their voiced and written intent, strategy, plans, growing capabilities’ in a way so to understand. It is by no means intended to upset the larger part of the Muslim community who have no blame, other than – many not all -being silent when terror strikes. But also a warning to the western world that often interferes in countries and than withdrawals leaving an instable environment behind to be filled by others.

14 Radical Salafists consider both Shiites and Jews the enemies of Islam. But anti-Shiite enmity is often stronger than that against Jews among Salafists, who consider the Shiites a fifth column and thus see "damage" by Shiites as more serious than that caused by others http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/02/salafist-sunnis-shiites-enemy-jews.html

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When oath of allegiance has been taken for two caliphs, kill the one for whom the oath was taken later. Hadith, Book 19, Number 4568: Narrated AbuSa'id al-Khudri: The Messenger of Allah said.

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