al-qaida chief ayman al-zawahiri the coordinator 2016 part 4-1-tb-37-al qaida

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 4-1-TB-37-Al Qaida

“[T]hey are not talking too much. They are not making press statements. It is a big threat.”

Acting Defense Minister Masoom Stanikzai told CNN that al Qaeda were keeping a low profile but expanding. “They are really very active. They are working in quiet and reorganizing themselves and preparing themselves for bigger attacks,” he said. “They are working behind other networks, giving them support and the experience they had in different places. And double their resources and recruitment and other things. That is how — they are not talking too much. They are not making press statements. It is a big threat.”

Major General Jeff Buchanan, Deputy Chief of Staff for the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan, said the recent discovery and destruction of an al Qaeda training camp in Kandahar province meant previous U.S. estimates of the group’s strength were being revised. “If you go back to last year, there were a lot of intel estimates that said within Afghanistan al Qaeda probably has 50 to 100 members, but in this one camp we found more than 150.”

2009, U.S. President Barack Obama has said the U.S. military campaign against Taliban forces in Afghanistan is aimed at preventing al-Qaeda from reestablishing a base that could be used to plot attacks against Americans.

In September 2014, al-Qaeda Central (AQC) launched its latest regional affiliate, al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS). The new group was created to operate across South Asia, however, with its centre of gravity and leadership based in Pakistan.

Oct 2015, The headlines should read: “Obama to slash U.S. troops in Afghanistan by over 40% weeks before he hands over responsibility to a new President.” Instead they say: “Obama extends U.S. military presence in Afghanistan.” Talk about controlling the narrative.

Late Spring, Islamic terrorist group Al Qaeda has been working closely with the Taliban in Afghanistan lately, a move that could pose a threat in the strife-torn country, a spokesman for the U.S.-NATO mission said Thursday. Brig. Gen. Charles Cleveland noted that, in numbers, the Taliban fighters outdid militants from the Islamic State group, also known as ISIS, in Afghanistan.“In terms of the threat that they pose right now, by themselves we don’t think that they pose a real threat, a real significant threat to the government of Afghanistan. ... Al Qaeda, beginning to work more with Taliban, they can present a bit of an accelerant for the Taliban. So they can provide capabilities and skills and those types of things,” Cleveland said

April 2016, Al-Qaeda is ostensibly the reason the United States got involved militarily in Afghanistan more than a decade ago. But as the war in Afghanistan progressed, al-Qaeda receded as a target and seemingly as an active player. When Osama bin Laden was killed in 2011 in neighboring Pakistan, the group seemed to be at a nadir. But, acting Afghan Defense Minister Masoom Stanekzai told CNN that al-Qaeda was resurgent. “They are really very active. They are working in quiet and reorganizing themselves and preparing themselves for bigger attacks…They are working behind other networks, giving them support and the experience they had in different places. And double their resources and recruitment and other things,” Stanekzai said. “[T]hey are not talking too much. They are not making press statements. It is a big threat.” The concentration of al-Qaeda activity is along the eastern border–Paktia, Paktika, Khost, Nuristan, and Kunar–where “militants who are apparently associated with al-

1The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. –Winston ChurchillCees de Waart: CdW Intelligence to Rent of 8

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Qaeda are looking to establish military camps.” Major General Jeff Buchanan, the deputy chief of staff for operations in Afghanistan, agreed with Stanekzai. He told CNN that intel assessments from as recently as last year pegged al-Qaeda numbers at 50-100, “but in this one camp we found more than 150.”“There’s not thousands of them,” he said, “but clearly in remote parts of Afghanistan there are al Qaeda leaders we’re concerned about and what they’re capable of doing.”

Last October 2015, the United States raided and destroyed a pair of al-Qaeda training camps in Kandahar. General John F. Campbell, who led the NATO’s Resolute Support mission until early March, told the Washington Post after the raid, “This was really AQIS, and probably the largest training camp-type facility that we have seen in 14 years of war.”Bill Roggio and Thomas Joscelyn commented in the Long War Journal at the time: “The U.S. military has not answered an obvious question: How did al-Qaeda establish two training camps along the Afghan-Pakistan border in a province that is supposedly secure from the Taliban?”

Late June 2016, The leader of one of the world’s largest jihadi groups said that ISIS and his rival leader of the group, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was only intent on trying to “split the ranks of the mujahideen,” or jihadis. Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri called on the world’s Muslims to reject the Islamic State militant group (ISIS) and throw their weight behind the Afghan Taliban, in a new video released. ISIS frequently attempts to paint Al-Qaeda as lesser Muslims, than its own followers. Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri endorsed the Afghan Taliban guerrillas, a move that may boost the group’s insurgency in Afghanistan after President Barack Obama approved the expansion of the U.S. military’s role in the war-plagued nation. Al-Zawahiri announced that he would “extend my pledge of allegiance” in a 14-minute online audio recording, Reuters reported.

Sep 2015, al-Zawahiri said: “We have endured a lot of harm from Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and his brothers, and we preferred to respond with as little as possible, out of our concern to extinguish the fire of sedition. “But Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and his brothers did not leave us a choice, for they have demanded that all the mujahideen reject their confirmed pledges of allegiance, and to pledge allegiance to them for what they claim of a caliphate.

Al-Qaeda (The Base) and ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) have maintained closer ties for almost a decade, until Al-Qaeda leadership disowned the ISIS in February 2014. Shortly after declaring himself the caliph of ISIS, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi urged the Al Qaeda leadership as well as Taliban militants to pledge allegiance to him and leave the founder of the Afghan Taliban, Mullah Mohammed Omar. Moreover, he called Taliban’s “commander of the faithful” an ignorant, illiterate warlord, unworthy of spiritual or deserved any political respect. At the same time Al-Baghdadi also denounced Al-Qaeda leader by adding: “I have to choose between the rule of God and the rule of Zawahiri, and I choose the rule of God.” (Time) In response, some prominent jihadi preachers like Abu Muhammad al Maqdisi and Abu Qatada have blasted ISIS for deviancy from Islamic path (CNN). Although, both Taliban and Al-Qaeda rejected Islamic State and its’ caliphate, while majority of the Afghan Taliban militants remained faithful to Mullah Omar, whereas Al-Qaeda top leaders issued a statement and reiterating their adherence of allegiance to Aiyman al Zawahiri.


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Al-Qaeda supports both the Afghan Taliban, who are Pakistan’s allies, and the Pakistani Taliban, who are Pakistan’s enemies. With the Afghan Taliban Al-Qaeda fights the Americans in Afghanistan, and the enemies of the Pashtuns, and with the Pakistani Taliban Al-Qaeda fights the Americans in Pakistan, and the Pakistani security forces, the Punjabies, when Pakistan attacks the Al-Qaeda to please the Americans. The Afghan and Pakistani Taliban have different causes, but they both cooperate with Al-Qaeda, and sometimes they help each other and sometimes they fight each other. They are narcoterrorists. Another problem that Pakistan faces when it comes to terrorism is that when it attacks the Afghan Taliban, to please the Americans who are attacked by the Afghan Taliban, the Afghan Taliban are infuriated, and there are the conditions for a coordination between the Afghan and the Pakistani Taliban against Pakistan (Punjabis). Or there are the conditions for greater cooperation between the Afghan Taliban and Iran.Therefore when Pakistan attacks Al-Qaeda, Al-Qaeda attacks Pakistan with the Pakistani Taliban, and when Pakistan attacks the Afghan Taliban, there is the risk of a cooperation between the Afghan and the Pakistani Taliban against Pakistan, and of a greater cooperation between Iran and the Afghan Taliban. The ISIS turned their focus towards Afghanistan by the end of 2014 and early 2015 considering it as a fertile ground for expansion of its influence. But Afghan Taliban leadership stick to its policy to remain limited to Afghanistan, while firmly rejecting ISIS caliphate and its model of jihad, and censuring the cruel ideology of Islamic State. Afghan General Mahmood Khan, the deputy commander of the army’s 215 Corps, also confirmed that residents of a number of districts in the southern Helmand province had told him that Mullah Khadim was recruiting fighters for ISIS. However tough resistance by Afghan Taliban blocked the spread of ISIS in most southern and southeastern Afghanistan. In late January 2015, Taliban claimed that they have captured the renegade insurgent, ISIS leader in Afghanistan Rauf Khadim and his 45 supporters for recruiting fighters for ISIS and turning locals against Taliban (Pajhwok). Taliban Governor Mullah Abdul Rahim Akhund claimed that, “he [Mullah Abdul Rauf Khadim] was against the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, the Taliban’s official name” and “involved in anti-Islamic activities.” Taliban announced that the fate of Mullah Rauf Khadim and his 45 supporters would be decided by Taliban religious leaders and judges. However a few days later it was reported that Mullah Rauf Khadim and five others militants were hit in a drone strike in Afghanistan in mid-February (CNN).


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According to some reports ISIS militants are also confronting the Afghan National Army in Farah province, while daily clashes between Taliban and ISIS militants have also been reported from many southern provinces (Pajhwok). According to Afghan army General Murad Ali Murad, “Masked men active in Zabul and Helmand provinces have raised black flags and are trying to spread their activities towards northern parts”.At the same time, the governor of northeastern Kunduz, Mohammad Omar Safi claimed that there were about 70 ISIS militants in the province and he urged for a strategy to deal with the militants (Pajhwok).

According to the new Global Terrorism Index, there has been a steep increase in the number of deaths caused by terrorism in the world's developed countries. The 10 countries which have suffered the most from terrorism-related deaths are Greece, Turkey, Denmark, Australia, Sweden, Mexico, Germany, Israel, the US and France. The index has listed out 274 terrorist groups but 75% of the deaths were caused by Isis, Boko Haram, al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Iraq, Nigeria, Afghanistan, Syria and Pakistan were the five countries that were most affected by terror attacks as 72% of terror-related deaths in 2015 occurred in these countries.

Regards Cees***Since the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan in the wake of the 9/11 attacks, the area under opium cultivation in the country has increased 23 fold to an area nearly ten times the size of Washington, D.C., while production of the illicit drug has skyrocketed 18-fold, from 185 metric tons to 3,300.

Officially, it’s believed that the Taliban has a yearly budget of around 500 million dollars. In private, however, Western and Afghani intelligence agencies admit that the real Taliban budget is closer to between one billion and two billion dollars, with most opting for the higher number. Intelligence sources at the former International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), since replaced by the Resolute Support Mission (RSM), place the number even higher—at more than two billion. Moreover, it is widely believed that the Taliban has stockpiled cash amounting to several billion additional dollars in preparation of a major campaign to seize control of Afghanistan at some point in the future.Where exactly does the Taliban get all this cash? The sources are many and varied. Narcotics are one of the principal sources of the Taliban’s financing. Over the last two decades, Afghanistan has emerged as the principal source of the world’s heroin, producing somewhere between 70% and 90% of the world’s supply. Afghanistan sits at the heart of a region called the “Golden Crescent,” a rugged mountainous region incorporating northeastern Iran, Afghanistan, and northwestern Pakistan, which is the center of the world’s heroin production. Afghanistan is a “vertically integrated” heroin producer in that the entire process, from the cultivation of the opium poppy to the production of morphine and its subsequent conversion into heroin, all takes place within the country.It does not appear that the Taliban is actually involved in the physical production of heroin or its antecedents. The Taliban’s principal function in the drug trade is to organize the smuggling of heroin out of Afghanistan, smuggle in chemicals, principally acetic anhydride, that are necessary for the manufacture of heroin and insure that government officials, either through bribery or intimidation, don’t interfere with the heroin trade as well as provide protection to the heroin factories. Because of its use for the synthesis of heroin by the deacetylation of morphine, acetic anhydride is a key ingredient in the manufacture of heroin and it is listed as a U.S. DEA List II precursor, and restricted in many other countries including, at least officially, Afghanistan.Afghan government sources estimate that the Afghan heroin trade generates approximately two billion dollars in turnover within Afghanistan, with roughly one-third of the proceeds going to the heroin


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producers, one-third going to the Taliban, and the balance going to expenses including paying poppy farmers, running the heroin factories, and bribes to government officials and security personnel. The production of hashish is also a significant source of funding for the Taliban. According to UN sources, Afghanistan is also the world’s largest producer of hashish, supplying approximately 4,000 tons. Utilizing the same smuggling networks as those for heroin, hashish adds another 100 million to 150 million dollars to the Taliban’s coffers. Currently there are approximately 50,000 acres devoted to the production of hashish in roughly 17 provinces. For farmers, the cultivation of hashish is actually more profitable than that of opium poppies, yielding a profit of around 4,000 dollars per acre.

Smuggling, in general, is also a major source of funding for the Taliban. The same networks that can be used to smuggle in arms and munitions, or smuggle out drugs, can be used to smuggle a broad range of goods. Cigarettes, after drugs, are the second most significant item smuggled. Afghanistan imports approximately two billion dollars of Western cigarettes a year, an amount that seems disproportionately high given that only about 20% of inhabitants smoke. In addition, local cigarettes sell for around 30 cents a pack, one-third of the price of Western cigarettes. Western cigarettes cost around a dollar a pack in Afghanistan.

Officially, the Afghan government levies an excise tax of 20% on imported cigarettes. In June 2015, that tax was increased to 100%. In addition, cigarettes sold in Afghanistan are required to bear a government stamp showing that the excise tax has been paid. It appears that the excise tax and its required documentation are largely ignored. Kabul street markets are full of vendors selling Western cigarettes all clearly marked “South Asia Duty Free Sales Only” and absent any government excise tax stamp.There are only a handful of Duty Free Stores in Afghanistan, about a half dozen at major airports and border crossings, and a few that cater to ISAF personnel and diplomatic staff. It’s hard to imagine that these stores, perhaps a dozen or two, are responsible for sales of two billion dollars of foreign cigarettes. Those same cigarettes in India will fetch four to five times the average Afghan street price. It’s unclear how much cigarette smuggling adds to the Taliban’s coffers. It could be in the range of 100 to 200 million dollars a year.

In addition, the Taliban operates a range of commercial businesses, including emerald mines in Pakistan’s Swat Valley, timber concessions, some of which are legal some illegal, and marble quarries. The Taliban also levies taxes on citizens and businesses in areas they control. The extent of the contribution from these operations is unclear.

Kidnappings are another important source of revenue. Although the United States remains resolute in not paying ransoms for kidnapped Americans (The Bowe Bergdahl case notwithstanding), other European countries have been willing to ransom their citizens. France and Italy have both paid multi-million dollar ransoms to free their nationals. Even Great Britain, which ostensibly agrees with the United States in not paying ransoms, has, it is rumored, on at least one occasion, paid a ransom to free a kidnapped Briton.

In addition, extortion against nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in the form of protection money or payments for “security services” is also common. Additionally, kidnappings or extortion of Afghan citizens in both Afghanistan and Pakistan also add to the Taliban’s funds. All told, kidnappings and extortion of westerners, NGOs, and others probably contributes around 50 million dollars yearly.Two other major sources of Taliban funding are Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence Agency (ISI) and, ironically, indirectly, the United States itself. Pakistan has supplied the Taliban with a broad range of arms, supplies, and financial help. In addition, the ISI has also assisted the Taliban’s smuggling operations, indirectly adding to their financing.A significant portion of the Taliban’s Pakistani financing in turn came, ironically, from American sources. Pakistan has been a major recipient of US military and financial aid over the course of the


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past 15 years. Direct US military and economic assistance to Pakistan has amounted to over 20 billion dollars since 2001. Moreover, a significant amount of additional US aid to Pakistan was channeled through third party contractors. Pakistan was also reimbursed by ISAF for various services that it provided to American and coalition troops.

Directly and indirectly, U.S. financial aid to the Pakistani government is probably upward of 40 billion dollars. A significant amount of that aid went to the ISI, and from there some portion went to finance the Taliban. There is no way to determine what is the actual amount of financial support that the ISI has given the Taliban or how much of this assistance was derived from U.S. aid programs, since much of this aid is in the form of various services and supplies. The Afghan government estimates that actual cash transfers to the Taliban from the ISI have been in the range of 200 to 400 million dollars yearly.Ironically, another major source of funding for the Taliban has been the construction projects undertaken under the auspices of ISAF, and the bilateral aid programs of the US and other European countries. After three decades of warfare, much of Afghan’s infrastructure had been destroyed. Large portions of its major cities had been reduced to rubble. Power transmission grids, roads, and rail networks have all suffered extensive damage. All told approximately 30 billion to 50 billion dollars was spent on a broad range of construction projects. Many contractors will now readily admit that they routinely added 10% to as much as 40% to the cost of such projects to kick back to the Taliban as protection money.On a recent trip to Afghanistan one contractor recounted to me a story of a bridge in Helmand province that was built and destroyed a total of six times. According to the story, the contractor agreed to add 20% to the budget for the project and to kick that amount back to the Taliban as protection money on condition that the Taliban would not blow up the bridge until he had been paid for the construction job.Once the funds had been received he promptly paid the Taliban their cut and they proceeded to blow up the bridge. According to the contractor, the bridge was built and destroyed a total of six times, each time the Taliban getting their 20% of the construction budget. In conversations with other contractors, I tried to confirm if the story was true. All I could get was a chuckle followed by an enigmatic smile. Everyone I spoke to did confirm, however, that it was standard practice to build in a kick back to the Taliban to insure that militants did not attack or disrupt a construction project and that there were numerous examples of projects that were rebuilt multiple times.I do not know if the story of the Helmand Bridge is true. I doubt we will ever know, but it is nonetheless a fitting metaphor for what happened in Afghanistan during the construction boom that followed the American intervention. Afghan intelligence sources estimate that the Taliban was able to skim off between 10% and 20% of the funds that were earmarked for construction over a roughly ten year period. That would put the Taliban’s take at somewhere between five and ten billion dollars over this period, or roughly an average of $500 million to a billion dollars a year.The one refrain I heard while I was in Afghanistan, from everyone, government sources, RSM personnel and the proverbial “Afghan man on the street”, was that “the Taliban has plenty of money” and that “for the Taliban money is no problem.” Considering that the Taliban leadership was largely uneducated and inexperienced in matters of finance, it is remarkable that they could administer a multi-stream financial empire that was spitting out yearly several billion dollars in income or that they could do this while in hiding in Afghanistan’s and Pakistan’s remote mountain wilderness.

It stands to reason that managing sums of money of this magnitude, collecting them, moving them around and spending them, would require a fairly sophisticated financial network and experienced money managers. Here again, all signs point to the ISI. They already have a track record managing and moving around sums of this magnitude having done it once before for the CIA while


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funding the mujahedeen fighters in Afghanistan during the 1980s. No doubt, the reputation of ISI personnel for having sticky fingers gives them a powerful incentive to manage the Taliban’s cash.In fact, the Taliban’s most significant weapon is not its arms or its ability to mobilize jihadists, but the vast sums of money that it seems to have at its disposal. The Taliban has billions with which to buy influence, corrupt government officials, and suborn even the most resistant opponent. Money can buy guns and recruit soldiers, but its insidious effects in undermining opposition and corrupting government security forces is far more deadly and a far more formidable challenge. Considering that al-Qaeda’s attack on September 11 cost less than 300,000 dollars, a jihadist organization with the Taliban’s financial resources should be a matter of serious concern.

The most effective strategy for destroying the Taliban once and for all is to uncover the financial networks that it uses to move money around, to cutoff its funding sources, and shut down the smuggling networks and illicit activities that it uses to fund its operations. It may well be that in time the Taliban may drop any pretense of jihadism or a political agenda and simply revert to a criminal enterprise, a common enough evolution among political-terrorist organizations. For now the most effective strategy the US can use to shut down the Taliban is simply to “follow the money.” Joseph V. Micallef

Oct 2016, While the statistics cited by the United Nations Office on Drugs & Crime, the White House’s Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP) and other sources are inconsistent, all agree that Afghanistan is by far the biggest grower of poppies in the world – a crop that accounts for 80 percent to 95 percent of the opium produced globally.The UN says the area under opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan is now about 497,000 acres, up 10 percent from last year, but the “most important driver” of increased production is higher yield per acre. “In Afghanistan, there is a symbiotic relationship between narco-traffickers and the insurgency, as narcotics traffickers provide revenue and arms to the insurgency, while insurgents provide protection to growers and traffickers to prevent the government from interfering with their activities,” the ONDCP says on its website. “Further, drug-related corruption continues to undercut international reconstruction efforts and good governance, as government officials abuse their positions by benefiting financially from the drug trade.” The UN report says that while billions have been spent in Afghanistan over the past decade to encourage farmers to abandon opium poppies in favors of crops such as wheat, fruit and saffron, “many of those efforts have failed.”Even before the majority of foreign combat troops were pulled out of Afghanistan in 2014, the reach of Taliban was growing, and it now controls more territory than at any time since 2001, according to Military Times.

“Opium is a source of literally billions of dollars to extremist and criminal groups… [C]utting down the opium supply is central to establishing a secure and stable democracy, as well as winning the global war on terrorism,” (Statement of Assistant Secretary of State Robert Charles. Congressional Hearing, 1 April 2004)

“the battle against narcotics cultivation has been fought and won in other countries and it [is] possible to do so here [in Afghanistan], with strong, democratic governance, international assistance and improved security and integrity.” ( Statement of the UNODC Representative in Afghanistan at the :February 2004 International Counter Narcotics Conference,

Because the US wanted to supply the Mujahideen rebels in Afghanistan with stinger missiles and


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other military hardware it needed the full cooperation of Pakistan. By the mid-1980s, the CIA operation in Islamabad was one of the largest US intelligence stations in the World. `If BCCI is such an embarrassment to the US that forthright investigations are not being pursued it has a lot to do with the blind eye the US turned to the heroin trafficking in Pakistan’, said a US intelligence officer. (“The Dirtiest Bank of All,” Time, July 29, 1991, p. 22.)

“Afghan heroin sells on the international narcotics market for 100 times the price farmers get for their opium right out of the field”.(US State Department quoted by the Voice of America (VOA), 27 February 2004).


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al-qaida chief ayman al-zawahiri the coordinator 2016 part 4-1-tb-37-al qaida

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