GROWING ASYMMETRY IN SOUTH ASIA & ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR

NATIONAL SECURITY OF PAKISTAN

DR TUGHRAL YAMINASSOCIATE DEAN CIPS, NUST

MY THESISTHE ASYMMETRY IN SOUTH ASIA IS GROWING

AT AN ALARMING RATE IN A NUMBER OF WAYS BUT IT IS NOT GOING TO SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE SECURITY BALANCE IN THE REGION.

PAKISTAN WILL REMAIN VULNERABLE TO SIGNIFICANT INTERNAL & EXTERNAL THREATS IN THE FORSSEABLE FUTURE.

IN ORDER TO DEAL WITH THE EMERGING CHALLENGES IT NEEDS TO PREPARE A WHOLESOME SECURITY APPROACH.

WHAT DOES GROWING ASYMMETRY IN SOUTH ASIA MEANS?

• SOUTH ASIA = PAKISTAN & INDIA• GROWING ASYMMETRY = INCREASING

DIFFERENCE IN THE POWER POTENTIAL OF TWO OR MORE RIVAL COUNTRIES

• GROWING ASYMMETRY IN SOUTH ASIA = INCREASING DIFFERENCE IN THE POWER POTENTIAL OF INDIA & PAKISTAN, PARTICULARLY IN THE MILITARY FIELD (BOTH IN THE CONVENTIONAL & NUCLEAR FORCES)

ASYMMETRIES IN SOUTH ASIA

FIXED• AREA: PAK (770,875 SQ KM) VS

INDIA (2,973,193 SQ KM) • COASTLINE: PAKISTAN (7,000

KM) VS INDIA (1,046 KM)• POPULATION: PAK

(196,174,380) VS INDIA (1,236,344,631)

• WATER RESOURCES: EXCEPT FOR RIVER KABUL, INDIA CONTROLS ALL WATERS FLOWING INTO PAKISTAN

CHANGING• CONVENTIONAL FORCES• NUCLEAR FORCES• LEADERSHIP• DIPLOMACY• ECONOMY• TECHNOLOGY• LEVELS OF POVERTY• STATE OF ENERGY

NATIONAL

SECURITY

PHYSICAL SECURITY/SOVEREIGNTY

INTERNAL SECURITY/LAW & ORDER SITUATION

ENERGY SECURITY

ECONOMIC SECURITY

WATER SECURITY

GOOD NEIGHBOURLY RELATIONS

CONFIDENCE OF THE CITIZEN THAT THE STATE WILL PROTECT AND DEFEND IT AGAINST ANY EXTERNAL OR INTERNAL THREAT AND ENSURE ITS FUNDAMENTAL RIGHTS

INDIA VS PAKISTAN MILITARY STRENGTHINDIA PAKISTAN

GLOBAL FIREPOWER (GFP) RANK

4 OUT OF 126 13 OUT OF 126

TOTAL POPULATION 1,251,695,584 199,085,847

MANPOWER AVAILABLE 616,000,000 95,000,000

FIT FOR SERVICE 489,600,000 75,325,000

REACHING MILITARY AGE ANNUALY

22,900,000 4,354,000

ACTIVE MILITARY PERSONAL 1,325,000 620,000

ACTIVE MILITARY RESERVES 2,143,000 515,000

AIRCRAFT (ALL TYPES) 2,086 923

HELICOPTERS 646 306

ATTACK HELICOPTERS 19 52

ATTACK AIRCRAFT (FIXED WINGS) 809 394

INDIA PAKISTAN

FIGHTER AIRCRAFT 679 304

TRAINER AIRCRAFT 318 170

TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT 857 261

SERVICABLE AIRPORTS 346 151

TANKs 6464 2924

AFVs 6704 2828

SPGs 290 465

TOWED ARTILLERY 7414 3278

MLRS 292 134

MERCHANT MARINE STRENGTH

340 11

MAJOR PORTS/TERMINALS 7 2

FLEET STRENGTH 295 197

AIRCRAFT CARRIERS 2 0

SUBMARINES 14 5

INDIA PAKISTAN

FRIGATES 14 10

DESTROYERS 10 0

CORVETTES 26 0

MINE WARFARE CRAFT 6 3

PATROL CRAFT 135 12

EXTERNAL DEBT (USD) 459,100,000,000 58,100,000,000

ANNUAL DEFENCE BUDGET

40,000,000,000 7,000,000,000

FE RESERVE (USD) 370,700,000,000 17,300,000,000

PURCHASING POWER PARITY

7,411,000,000,000 884,200,000,000

LABOR FORCE 492,400,000 61,550,000

OIL PRODUCTION BPD 767,600 BBL 93,630 BBL

OIL CONSUMPTION BPD 3,510,000 BBL 440,000 BBL

PROVEN OIL RESERVES BPD 5,675,000,000 BBL 371,000,000 BBL

ROAD WAY COVERAGE (KM)

63,974 KM 7,791 KM

INDIA PAKISTAN

RAILWAY COVERAGE (KM) 63,974 KM 7,791 KM

WATERWAY COVERAGE (KM)

14,500 KM 25,220 KM

COASTLINE COVERAGE (KM)

7000 KM 1046 KM

SHARED BORDERS (KM) 13,888 KM 7,257 KM

SQUARE LAND AREA (KM) 3,287,263 KM 796,095 KM

WHAT ARE THE GROWING ASYMMETRIES IN SOUTH ASIA?

INDIA PAKISTAN

CONVENTIONAL FORCES

NUCLEAR FORCES

DEFENCE BUDGET/SPENDINGS

INTERNATIONAL ACCEPTABILITY

ECONOMY

QUALITY OF LEADERSHIP

STABILITY OF THE GOVERNMENT

HOW DOES PAKISTAN PERCEIVES THE GROWING ASYMMETRIES?

• INDIA’S GROWING DEFENCE BUDGET & ITS INTERNATIONAL ARMS ACQUISITION DRIVE

• INDIA’S ACCEPTANCE AS A RESPONSIBLE NUCLEAR STATE (CIVIL NUCLEAR DEALS, NSG WAIVER, US SUPPORT FOR ENTRY INTO NSG)

• ADVENT OF THE NUCLEAR POWERED & NUCLEAR MISSILE EQUIPPED SUBMARINE

• DEVELOPMENT OF THE BMDS• INDIA’S BID TO ENCIRCLE PAKISTAN THROUGH

AFGHANISTAN & IRAN

SOURCE: INDIAN AEROSPACE DEFENCE NEWS JANUARY 2 2016

Source: INDIAN DEFENCE NEWS MARCH 2016

WHAT ARE THE OPTIONS FOR PAKISTAN?

• LET THINGS AS THEY ARE & ACCEPT INDIA’S HEGEMONY

• INDULGE IN A DEBILITATING ARMS RACE (CONVENTIONAL AS WELL AS NUCLEAR) TO MAINTAIN A MODICUM OF STRATEGIC BALANCE

• GET AN EDGE BY IMPROVING THE ECONOMY, DEFEATING TERRORISM, ERADICATING POVERTY & SEEKING SMART MILITARY SOLUTIONS

WHAT CAN BE THE SMART MILITARY SOLUTIONS?

• COVER THE CONVENTIONAL GAP THROUGH TRAINING & INDIGENOUS DEFENCE PRODUCTION

• INVEST IN ISR• IMPROVE NETCENTRIC CAPABILITIES• BUILD A SMALL BUT EFFECTIVE NAVY• DEVELOP AN ASSURED SECOND STRIKE

CAPABILITY

CREDIBLE OFFENSIVE POSTURE

HEDGEHOG DEFENCE MODEL• A DEFENCE THAT ALL SPECIES OF

HEDGEHOGS POSSESS IS THE ABILITY TO ROLL INTO A TIGHT BALL, CAUSING ALL OF THE SPINES TO POINT OUTWARDS.

• SINCE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THIS STRATEGY DEPENDS ON THE NUMBER OF SPINES, SOME DESERT HEDGEHOGS THAT EVOLVED TO CARRY LESS WEIGHT ARE MORE LIKELY TO FLEE OR EVEN ATTACK, RAMMING AN INTRUDER WITH THE SPINES; ROLLING INTO A SPINY BALL IS FOR THOSE SPECIES A LAST RESORT.

TIRPITZ RISK THEORY MODEL• GRAND ADMIRAL ALFRED VON TIRPITZ

DEVELOPED A RISK THEORY BEFORE WWI, WHEREBY, IF THE GERMAN IMPERIAL NAVY REACHED A CERTAIN LEVEL OF STRENGTH RELATIVE TO THE BRITISH ROYAL NAVY, THE BRITISH WOULD TRY TO AVOID CONFRONTATION WITH GERMANY I.E. MAINTAIN A FLEET IN BEING.

• IF THE TWO NAVIES FOUGHT, THE GERMAN NAVY WOULD INFLICT ENOUGH DAMAGE ON THE BRITISH THAT THE LATTER RAN A RISK OF LOSING THEIR NAVAL DOMINANCE.

• BECAUSE THE BRITISH RELIED ON THEIR NAVY TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE BRITISH EMPIRE, TIRPITZ FELT THEY WOULD OPT TO MAINTAIN NAVAL SUPREMACY IN ORDER TO SAFEGUARD THEIR EMPIRE, AND LET GERMANY BECOME A WORLD POWER, RATHER THAN LOSE THE EMPIRE AS THE COST OF KEEPING GERMANY LESS POWERFUL.