Shared Vision for South Asia

Fostering Sustainable Development in South AsiaResponding to Challenges

SDPI, Islamabad 23rD Dec 2009

PALASH KANTI DASOxfam International

Outline of presentation• Idea of Shared Vision • The context of vulnerability• GHGs emission at South Asia level• Climate change impact and its implications• Regional cooperation and what we have at

SAARC level• What would constitute our shared vision

What is Shared Vision– Bali Action Plan

“……for long-term cooperative action, including a long-term global goal for emission reductions, to achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention, in accordance with the provisions and principles of the Convention, in particular the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, and taking into account social and economic conditions and other relevant factors”

Bali Action PlanSHARED VISIONGlobal emissions reduction pathway and key principles of future action to confront climate change.

Mitigation Adaptation Finance Technology- Binding emission reduction targets for rich (Annex I) countries.- Actions by developing (Non-Annex I) countries supported by rich countries.

Globally increased efforts to adapt the world to climate change, especially in developing countries.

Search for new financial resources to help developing countries both to mitigate and to adapt.

Increased co-operation for the uptake and wide diffusion of clean technologies.

Long term goal………

• Level of stabilization of GHG concentration – 350ppm CO2 eq

• A limit of the global average temperature increase – [1.5] degree Celsius above the pre-industrial level and [2] degree Celsius above the pre-industrial level

• 2050 is appropriate time frame for long term goal. GHG emission reduction – 50 percent of 1990 level, 85-95% for developed counties percent of 1990 level (there are figures with base year 1990, 2000, without base year)

• Global average GHG emission per capita reduced to about 2tCO2

What it means for South Asia:

• Position varies from country to country– Prioritisation differs– National interest linked with global negotiations– Political alignment with various blocks

• Inward and outward looking strategies

• Framing South Asian issues

The context of Vulnerability

Vulnerability is a state …..

V ∞ f E * S * 1/R(Modified from Metzger et al., 2006)

E is the measure of severity of the change

S is the sensitivity of the system (or the subject) to the exposure

R is the strength of the system to respond, defy and even take advantage of the imminent condition(s)

Vulnerability: A theoretical perspectives

V ∞ f E * S * 1/R impliesIn human systems

R is a measure of capital that are enjoyed by the human system

R ∞ f (Social capital, Human capital, Physical capital,

Financial capital, Natural capital)

The higher is the value of R, therefore

the higher is the value of any of these capitals (or assets) enjoyed by a human system, the lower is the vulnerability …………….

V ∞ f E * S * 1/R further elaborates…….

•Low E means Low V [E can only be so when new emissions are reduced significantly, and old emissions are captured]

•If E is infinitesimally low, no need for high R

- A drastic emission reduction plan, within a short period of time

- An agreed upon peaking in a shorter time frame

- Adaptation actions through enhancement of adaptive capacity

- Assistance for R by means of financing, technology transfer, skills …..

Hence South Asia shared vision should consider equally:

Emissions Scenario in South Asia

Source: WRI (2009)

Per Capita GHGs emission by region, 1995-2000

0

5

10

15

20

25

East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America andCaribbeans

Middle East and NorthAfrica

South Asia Sub Saharan Africa USA

Regions

Mt C

O2

per c

apita

Source: WRI (2009)

GHG contributions by country 2000

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%

Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan Srilanka Pakistan Nepal India N2O IndiaCH4 India CO2 Maldives

Source: WRI (2009)

GHGs emission by sector 2000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Bangladesh Srilanka Pakistan Nepal India

Tota

l Mt C

O2

Agriculture, Landuse and forestry

Waste

Transport

Industry

Energy

The real implication

Climate Change impacts in South Asia  Sea

level rise

Glacier melting

Temp increase

Frequent Floods

Frequent droughtAfg   Yes Yes Yes

BD Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Bhutan   Yes Yes Yes

India Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Maldives

Yes   Yes Yes  

Nepal   Yes Yes Yes

Pakistan

Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Srilanka

Yes   Yes

Source: WB (2009)

Climate Change implications in South Asia

• Water Security

• Food Security

• Livelihoods Security

• Energy Security

Equitable Growth and Development

Other factors….

• population: 2.2 billion by 2050

• 70% in rural areas and 75% belongs to poorest group

• 60% of them are in agriculture

• MDG achievements and beyond that

Regional Approach• Water Security – regional equitable water management across basins

• Food Security – Ensuring food production and food availability regionally

• Energy Security – ensuring access to energy and energy cooperation

• Livelihoods Security – regional approach to address agriculture

•Along with al those regional disaster management and preparedness approach

……Now the shared vision for SA

Outward

• In line with FAB

• Common strategic Political approach

Inward

• guided by regional approaches to four security issues mentioned earlier

Initiatives taken at SAARC level

What we have now at SAARC level

• SAARC CC Action Plan:

•No concrete Action Plan rather an agreed document

•7 Thematic areas

•Initial period : 2009-11

•Core focus is national level action plan adaptation

•Mutual consultation and capacity building

Contd….SAARC Declaration: Climate Change is mentioned only under Environment

Energy (Para 8, 9): more energy cooperation and focus on renewable energy, efficiency and trading; tech share…..

regional hydro, grid and gas pipelines connectivity

Para 10 -14 : ‘…to intensify cooperation within expanded regional environmental protection framework..’

‘…cooperation for capacity building, CDM, promotion for advocacy and awareness..’

In depth regional study ‘Climate Justice – Human Dimension of CC”Agreed on Per Capita Emission, historical responsibility and capabilities

Contd….Env Min Meeting in Oct 09:

Next Summit Theme on “Climate Change” At least one sharing meeting every year Common position on CC negotiations

……Shared vision should be….

SAARC cooperative actions towards

long-term goals for greener equitable development paths based on

Common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities within South Asia and

Social and economic conditions and other relevant factors

Thanks

Palash Kanti DasSouth Asia Climate Change LeadOxfam International

Email: pdas@oxfam.org.uk