IN DEGREE PROJECT TECHNOLOGY,FIRST CYCLE, 15 CREDITS

, STOCKHOLM SWEDEN 2018

Lithium-ion Batteries in Electric VehiclesSustainable to what extent?

ANTON PERSSON

DANIEL ÖMAN

KTH ROYAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGYSCHOOL OF ENGINEERING SCIENCES

Abstract Increasing environmental laws and regulations regarding emissions and air and water pollution in the transport sector. These laws and regulations combined with the limitation of oil as a natural resource have contributed to research regarding alternative fuels for vehicles. The electric cars have become a strong competitor for replacing the gasoline-driven cars of today. The power for many of these electric vehicles is stored in lithium-ion batteries, who have been questioned regarding their sustainability. The purpose of this report is to provide a comprehensive view of the problematics and consequences combined with the implementation of these electric vehicles due to their lithium-ion batteries. By collecting, analyzing and discussing research covering electric vehicles and their batteries, a conclusion is drawn with sustainability as a focus. The sustainability is measured regarding economic, environmental, political and social aspects. The research used in this study is collected from KTH Royal Institute of Technology’s library, consisting of peer-reviewed papers and books, supplemented by reports from reputable independent organizations. The results of this study show that there are both positive and negative effects of the implementation of the batteries from a sustainability point of view. Changes need to be done in more sectors than the transport sector in order to make the lithium-ion batteries a sustainable solution. Sammanfattning Hårdare miljökrav gällande utsläpp och föroreningar samt medvetenheten om oljan som begränsad resurs har bidragit till att alternativa bränslen för transportsektorn har utvecklats. Det pågår ständigt forskning och utveckling inom transportsektorn för att ta fram en ersättare till de oljebaserade drivmedlen. Elbilen är en stark kandidat till att ersätta de bensin- och dieseldrivna fordonen i framtiden. Många av dessa bilar drivs av litiumbaserade batterier, vilka har fått sin hållbarhet ifrågasatt. Syftet med denna rapport är att ge en överskådlig bild av problematiken och konsekvenserna vid införandet av eldrivna fordon på marknaden som drivs av litiumbatterier. Detta genomförs ur en hållbarhetssynvinkel som hanterar de ekonomiska, ekologiska, politiska och sociala aspekterna. Genom att sammanställa, analysera och diskutera tidigare forskning inom elfordon och dess batterier dras slutsatser angående den nuvarande hållbarheten hos litiumbatterierna. För att ge en rättvis och riktig bild så används i huvudsak expertgranskade forskningsartiklar och böcker från Kungliga Tekniska Högskolans bibliotek, ett visst komplement fås från rapporter av välkända oberoende organisationer. Studien visar att batterierna har både fördelar och nackdelar vad gäller hållbarheten, för att de ska bli helt hållbara så krävs det stora ändringar på fler fronter än bara inom transportsektorn i sig.

Preface and Acknowledgements This is a bachelor thesis work in Vehicle Engineering at The Royal Institute of Technology KTH supervised by Associate Professor Mikael Nybacka. Both authors have done the research, but the writing areas has been divided. Anton Persson is responsible for the economic and environmental aspects including recycling. Daniel Öman has the responsibility for the social and political aspects. Both authors are responsible for the analysis and discussion.

Table of contents 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................... 1

1.1 Background ........................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Purpose ............................................................................................................... 1 1.3 Limitations.......................................................................................................... 1 1.4 Method ............................................................................................................... 2

2. Theory .................................................................................................................. 3 2.1 Sustainability premises ....................................................................................... 3 2.2 Economic ............................................................................................................ 6 2.3 Environmental .................................................................................................... 8 2.4 Social .................................................................................................................. 9 2.5 Recycling of lithium ......................................................................................... 11

3. Analysis .............................................................................................................. 13 3.1 Economic effects .............................................................................................. 13 3.2 Environmental effects ....................................................................................... 14 3.3 Social effects .................................................................................................... 14

4. Discussion and Conclusions ................................................................................ 16 5. References .......................................................................................................... 18

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1. Introduction 1.1 Background Due to the climate change and the current air pollution levels, regulations are formed against the standards of gas emissions and air pollution created by the transport industry. Electrical vehicles (EVs) have become a popular solution to these problems, and due to the recent advances in the technology and governmental support, the adoption of these vehicles are increasing (Kim & Rahimi 2014, p. 621). The power of the EVs is stored in lithium-ion batteries instead of gas tanks, which makes these batteries the main difference between gasoline driven cars and the EVs. There are many studies regarding whether the emissions decrease of the transition to EVs or not, and whether the shift is economically viable (Zehner 2013; Kim & Rahimi 2014; Montoya, Sanchez & de Pablo 2016). Different studies have come to different conclusions about whether the lithium-ion batteries are a good solution or not from an environmental and economic point of view. 1.2 Purpose The purpose of this study is to enlighten about and give a comprehensive picture of the problematics connected to the transition to EVs, and especially the lithium-ion batteries that power them. Different perspectives are considered, and the focus is on the social, economic, political and ecological advantages or disadvantages that come with the lithium-ion batteries, and whether they are a sustainable solution or not. In order to perform a result that is as solid as possible, the study considers the whole lifecycle of the batteries, from the extraction to the recycling, and the effects that it has on every level during this cycle. 1.3 Limitations For the work presented in this study, there are a few limitations to consider. There are a variety of lithium batteries used in the transport sector and in this study, they are all viewed as one type. Some parts of the batteries are also mentioned briefly, e.g., cobalt, that is a part of some of the lithium batteries. There are also a few different types of EVs, but the one thing they have in common is the lithium batteries, as to why they are all viewed as one as well. To simplify the research of the extracting countries, the focus has been on the “lithium triangle” consisting of Argentina, Bolivia, and Peru, with a primary focus on Bolivia.

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1.4 Method This report is a qualitative study, consisting of an literature review about lithium batteries and electric vehicles and how they affect the world in political-, social-, economical- and ecological aspects. A qualitative study is chosen to achieve a survey of high quality although given limited financial resources and time. The information has been analyzed and compared to provide a comprehensive picture of the subject and the research that has been made in the area. The data for the study is mainly retrieved from peer-reviewed academic journal articles and books from the library at KTH Royal Institute of Technology. Data from websites run by trustworthy organizations supplement the content obtained from the sources, where needed. Peer-reviewed academic journal articles and books are sources that guarantee transparent and permanent information, confirmed by experts in the area. A qualitative study method is used to accomplish good, reliable information on a specific topic.

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2. Theory EVs are trending as the solution to lower the emission of greenhouse gases and pollution that the transport sector cause. Lithium-ion batteries are the top choice among manufacturers as the battery for EVs (Saw, Ye & Tai 2014, p. 1032; Scrosati, Garche & Sun 2015, p. 515) and they currently play a central role in the transition to EVs (Ralph, Hancock & Ali 2014, p. 551). There are many reasons as to why the lithium-ion batteries are preferred among the competing battery-types that the market has to offer. Many studies mention that the lithium-ion batteries are superior due to the high power density, high energy density and long service life, among other characteristics of the batteries (Lu, Han, Li, Hua & Ouyang 2012, p. 272; Saw et al. 2014, p. 1032). However, there are differing opinions on whether the lithium-ion batteries are a sustainable solution or not. E.g. regarding emissions and pollution, where many agree that the emission-free battery is a good solution to urban air pollution problems (Christmann, Gloaguen, Labbé, Melleton & Piantone 2015, p. 8; Zehner 2013, p. 45), while many studies claim that the batteries and EVs themselves are emission-free, the production of the electricity that charges the batteries still cause emissions (Kim & Rahimi 2014; Zehner 2013; Dunn, Gaines, Sullivan & Wang 2012, p. 12704). Furthermore, some of the problems that are mentioned in the research are the durability, reliability, safety, and cost of the vehicles (Lu et al. 2012, p. 272; Saw et al. 2014, p. 1032). 2.1 Sustainability premises Pollution and emissions are not the only ways to measure the sustainability; this report uses the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set up by the UN in order to compare the sustainability of the batteries, see Figure 1. The SDGs are 17 goals that the countries will work toward until 2030 to increase the sustainable development of the world (United Nations 2015). The work is conducted in three dimensions; economic, environmental and social, and the target is to encourage action in the most critical areas for the planet and the humanity, with a focus on the five P’s, see Table 1 (United Nations 2015).

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Figure 1. The Sustainable Development Goals of the UN (United Nations 2015).

Table 1. The United Nations critical areas of action for sustainability.

People “[..] End poverty and hunger, in all their forms and dimensions” “[..] Ensure that all human beings can fulfill their potential in dignity and equality and in a healthy environment.” (United Nations 2015)

Planet “[..] Protect the planet from degradation, including through sustainable consumption and production, sustainably managing its natural resources and taking urgent action on climate change, so that it can support the needs of the present and future generations” (United Nations 2015)

Prosperity “[..] Ensure that all human beings can enjoy prosperous and fulfilling lives and that economic, social and technological progress occurs in harmony with nature” (United Nations 2015)

Peace “[..] Foster peaceful, just and inclusive societies which are free from fear and violence. There can be no sustainable development without peace and no peace without sustainable development” (United Nations 2015)

Partnership “[..] Mobilize the means required to implement this Agenda through a revitalized Global Partnership for Sustainable Development, based on a spirit of strengthened global solidarity, focused in particular on the needs of the poorest and most vulnerable and with the participation of all countries, all stakeholders and all people” (United Nations 2015)

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This report will cover all the dimensions mentioned above, although some particular SDGs are more relevant than others for this subject. Hence the focus will be on a limited choice of these.

Table 2. The SDGs of the United Nations that this report has in focus (United Nations 2015). UN Goal number

In short Citation from the United Nations (2015)

1 No poverty “End poverty in all its forms everywhere.” 2 Zero hunger “End hunger, achieve food security and

improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture.”

3 Good health and well-being

“Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages.”

4 Quality education “Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all.”

6 Clean water and sanitation “Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all.”

7 Affordable and clean energy

“Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all.”

8 Decent work and economic growth

“Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all.”

9 Industry, innovation, and infrastructure

“Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation.”

10 Reduced inequalities “Reduce inequalities within and among countries.”

12 Sustainable consumption and production

“Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns”

13 Climate action “Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.”

15 Life on land “Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss.”

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2.2 Economic Effect on consumers For consumers, it is expensive to buy an electric vehicle, although the operating costs are often lower compared to a combustion vehicle (Neubauer, Brooker & Wood 2014, p. 269). However, Neubauer et al. (2012, p. 269) note that the actual price difference between EVs and its competitors is complicated to calculate precisely, since it is very dependent on the drive patterns and charge schedule, which affects the battery wear. The difference in costs between owning an EV compared to a combustion vehicle are expected to decrease as the manufacturing levels increase (Harrison 2017). Furthermore, the cost for petroleum cars will likely grow at the same time in order to meet the environmental regulations; this will further lower the price gap between owning an electric vehicle and a petroleum car (Harrison 2017). It is common that governments use other incitements for the population to ease the transition further, like subsidies, tax exemptions and free parking for EV owners (Zehner 2013, p. 43). As seen in Figure 2, this is common for European countries. Charge strategies can further lower the costs of operating an EV, since it affects the battery life, cost of charging and total mileage achieved (Neubauer et al. 2014, p. 272). The lifespan of a lithium-ion battery is estimated to be around ten years (Deng, Li, Li, Gao & Yuan 2016, p. 288; Gratz, Apelian, Sa & Wang 2014, p. 256).

Figure 2. A map over Europe showing some of the different governmental incentives for the owners of EVs (Zehner 2013, p. 43).

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Societal effects From a labor market point-of-view, it is currently a trend of fewer jobs in the automotive manufacturing industry, as a result of increased automation (Harrison 2017, p. 22). Furthermore, the transition to EVs will reduce jobs in the gasoline and diesel sector, as well as in the combustion engine manufacturing industry (Harrison 2017, p. 4). However, it will also produce new jobs in producing more renewable energy, manufacturing and installing the charging infrastructure (Harrison 2017, p. 4). This implies that the consuming countries, in this example; European countries, will both have some positive and some negative effects on different parts of the labor market due to the implementation of the EVs. As for the mining regions, the extraction brings possibilities to increase the financial flow to the economy and the inhabitants, which in turn enables development of the parts of the country that might be in decay (Hancock et al. 2017, p. 558). Although, historically, the indigenous people in the regions of extraction have suffered greater inequalities and social gaps as a result of the exploitation of the natural resources, than gained financial wealth (Humphreys Bebbington, 2013). These outcomes are further supported by a study by Revette (2012, p. 154), which identifies that big corporations have historically exploited the natural resources of the regions, without contributing to the wealth of the population, and have rather had a negative effect on the economy. Hancock et al. (2017, p. 558) further explain that the mining might also damage the environment and affect the area in a way that detracts other sources of income and development, e.g., eco-tourism. An argument that is strengthened by Cherico Wanger (2011, p. 204), who mentions that the lake at Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia's most popular tourist attraction might be exposed by the lithium extraction, hurting the local economy, since it is one of the primary sources of income for this region. National level For Europe as a whole, a transition to EVs would likely result in a loss in value compared to the value that the petrol and diesel cars that are currently produced in Europe add, depending on whether the batteries are imported or not, and to what extent (Harrison 2017, p. 20). Apart from the tax exemptions and subsidies mentioned earlier, there is a need for a lot of investments in the charging-infrastructure and the electricity grids (Harrison 2017, p. 5). However, Harrison (2017, p. 20) also adds that the investment in charging infrastructure adds value, which might even balance the loss, and consider that Europe would likely lower their crude oil imports, which would result in even more money staying in Europe.

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2.3 Environmental Effects at the consuming countries Driving EVs are considered emission-free since no exhaust gases are produced (Montoya Sanchez de Pablo et al. 2016, p. 56) and the total gas emissions has a potential to be reduced by increased adoption of EVs (Neubauer et al. 2012, p. 269). However, the making and the recycling of the batteries, as well as the production of the electricity that the cars are powered by, does emit greenhouse gases (Kim & Rahimi 2014, p. 620; Montoya Sanchez de Pablo et al. 2016; Zehner 2013, p. 43). That is why it is essential to consider the way that the electricity is produced in each country to decide whether it is sustainable or not to make the transition from gasoline cars to EVs (Kim & Rahimi 2014, p. 620; Montoya Sanchez de Pablo et al. 2016). It would not be sustainable if the emissions of the cars were lowered but still contributing to increased emissions from power plants that produce the electricity through, e.g., fossil fuels, which would be the reality for many countries. An example of a country that would not be able to lower the level of emissions by changing to EVs, but would rather be likely to increase its emissions, is China, which is mainly powered by coal (Montoya Sanchez de Pablo et al. 2016; Zehner 2013). However, many countries would be able to lower their emissions through the transition to EVs, considering that their electrical production is "clean" enough, e.g., Canada, Spain, and Denmark, among others (Montoya Sanchez de Pablo et al. 2016). On a local level, the air pollution is positively affected in the urban areas, considering that EVs have no emission from exhaust gases (Montoya Sanchez de Pablo et al. 2016, p. 56). Although Zehner (2013, p. 45) argues that the pollution is merely transferred away from the big cities to the industrial areas. One way to decrease the load on the power grid is by using scheduled charging of the EVs, which generally means charging at the off-peak hours (Arghya & Sajid 2011, p. 3). However, this would increase the emission of greenhouse gases for some examples, e.g., Los Angeles, that is powered by coal to a big extent during off-peak hours (Kim & Rahimi 2014, p. 620). Effects at the mining countries The areas where the lithium is extracted are affected, both socially and environmentally. A report by Cherico Wanger (2011, p. 204) states that the extraction of lithium at Salar de Uyuni in Bolivia may cause damage to the freshwater through pollution, which results in both human health issues and suffering biological diversity. Zehner (2013, p. 44) further mentions these pollution issues, as he states that both the workers at the mining sites as well as the local citizens are being exposed to air and water pollution in areas with inadequate regulations. This pollution is partly due to toxic chemicals, which are used when processing the lithium, and problems with waste disposal at the mines (Hancock et al. 2017, p. 553; Zehner 2013, p. 44). There are other factors than toxic waste and pollution that affects the local environment and human health, for example, the excessive amount of water that the lithium mining requires (Hancock et al. 2017, p. 553). Many areas in the process can be improved, and

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there are multiple ways to reduce the ecological impact on the exploited regions, preferably by recycling the lithium batteries and developing more environmentally sustainable production methods (Cherico Wanger 2011, p. 205). 2.4 Social Historically During the history, the exploitation of natural resources in a country has been hugely profitable for foreign corporations and the wealthiest people of the country, and the majority of the population have seen very few benefits from the natural resources (Revette 2017, p. 150).

“Foreign entities and transnationals are often demonized for exploiting and plundering resources over the course of Bolivia’s history, leaving

nothing but poverty behind” (Revette 2017, p. 154). Thus, the political sensitivity regarding lithium extraction and how the environmental and social impact is going to affect the sixty percent indigenous population in Bolivia. Countries with natural resources have over the years failed to use the profit from natural resources to promote growth and development to the state. The Bolivian government has over the years suffer from corruption, and this has led to inequality and conflicts among the citizen and other countries (Revette 2017, p. 151). Effects at the mining countries In recent years, progressive government throughout Latin America have increased their dependence on lithium extraction. The reason for the increased mining of lithium is the growing demand on the international markets, which has resulted in increased revenue and growth to the mining business. Bolivia is one among other countries that want to extract and sell lithium in order improve the standard of living among their citizens (Revette 2017, p. 150-151). For many people, the benefits from a growing mining industry can make a significant difference in the daily life. Taylor and Bonner (2017) state that lithium extraction generates jobs, foreign investment, and significant infrastructure developments. According to Gudynas (2013), the Bolivian government claims that the goal with all the export is to guarantee economic growth to finance social-welfare programs and to end the plunder and poverty-related to the Bolivian natural resources (Revette 2017, p. 154). Peru has in contrast to Bolivia a long history of government-controlled mining and the revenue redistributes back into the extraction areas using a tax transfer system (Taylor & Bonner 2017, p. 6). Future prospects The great economics around the globe is looking for the next big thing, and a breakthrough regarding batteries can mean a fortune for the companies and an economic boost to the countries. There is a widespread belief that cutting-edge lithium batteries will be a $100 billion business in the year 2030 (LeVine 2010, p. 90). However, Revette

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(2017) states that the future of the lithium industries is far from settled. With new laws and a shared hope that this opportunity will change Bolivia for the better and never again be like it was before. The Bolivian citizens want a future with dignity, sovereignty, and independence, therefore, in 2008 Bolivia started a state-run lithium industry with expectations to rewrite the long and troubled history regarding natural resources (Revette 2017, p. 155-156). Thus, the president of Bolivia believes a stop in the export of pure lithium will promote lithium industrialization within the country (Hancock et al. 2017, p. 253). The president has faith that Bolivia may start manufacturing batteries to EVs and keep the production in the state to generate more money to develop new technological innovations (Hancock et al. 2017, p. 253). Hancock (2017, p. 558) states if the area can establish research organizations, academia, and international donors. The possibility for Bolivia to succeed is increasing and could later help the government to keep the sustainable goals, including a good education, clean water, end poverty and zero hunger (Hancock et al. 2017, p. 558). Taylor et al. (2017, p. 3) note that to accomplish a growth of mining in a state, it is important to have political stability. According to Transparency International (2017), Bolivia is ranked 112 out of 180 countries regarding corruption with a score of 30 out of 100 where 0 is very corrupt, and 100 is not corrupt at all. President Morales often speaks about “Vivir Bien and rights of nature”, Vivir Bien means living well, and with rights of nature, he intends to take responsibility for the environment (Gudynas 2013). However, Hancock et al. (2017) claim that processing countries frequently have a low, if any, environmental awareness and that they tend to use cheap labor. Bolivia has observed and learned from Venezuela and Cuba who has a history of mismanaging their resources (Hancock et al. 2017, p. 555). Bolivia therefore wants to focus on domestic employment instead of domestic ownership to ensure that the lithium industry will provide work for the Bolivian people (Hancock et al. 2017, p. 555). To ensure this they have regulations that guarantees that at least 85 percent of the workers are from Bolivia in all resource development projects (Hancock et al. 2017, p. 555). Conflicts regarding the mining Across Latin America mining is a contentious issue, with over two hundred environmental conflicts. Many battles are often about the government policies, industry practices, and the rights of indigenous people (Taylor et al. 2017, p. 3-4). Taylor et al. (2017, p. 4) also state that conflicts occur among the citizens in these countries due to the lack of community consultation, unequal economic benefits, and around the environmental impacts from mining. These problems results in politicians having to manage these conflicts, and the mining protests often ends with police violence (Taylor et al. 2017, p. 4).

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2.5 Recycling of lithium Lithium is not a renewable resource; hence the supply of lithium is finite (Gratz et al. 2014, p. 255). A future lithium shortage is likely to occur due to the increasing demand and limited recycling of today's' lithium (Cherico Wanger 2011, p. 205). The demand is increasing as the areas of usage of the lithium batteries grow rapidly, from electric vehicles, portable devices as mobile phones et cetera, and stationary energy storages (Diekmann, Hanisch, Froböse, Schälicke, Loellhoeffel, Fölster & Kwade 2017, p. 6184). The annual consumption of lithium is portrayed in Figure 3. Only a tiny share of the lithium used today gets recycled (Christmann et al. 2015, p. 30). There are several reasons for the limited recycling, e.g., the cost of the recycling, the value of the metals involved and the limited collection of used lithium batteries (Christmann et al. 2015). A study by Diekmann et al. (2017, p. 6185) also adds the hazard risks of lithium-ion batteries as one of the main practical obstacles to the recycling process, mentioning examples as fires, explosions, and chemical hazards.

Figure 3. Worldwide annual consumption of lithium in metric tons (Statista 2018).

Economic obstacles The cost of the recycling process makes it five times as expensive to buy recycled lithium, as it is to purchase new lithium, considering that the cheapest mining process is used (Christmann et al. 2015, p. 32). The price difference gives no economic incentives for the recycling companies to recycle the lithium, or for the consumers to buy the lithium from these companies (Christmann et al. 2015, p. 32). However, some companies recycle the lithium-ion batteries, but these companies only recycle the cobalt and nickel in them, because of their high value, while the less valuable metals like lithium and aluminum are

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“downcycled”, in other words, not recycled and reused (Gratz et al. 2014, p. 256). The high value and more cost-effective recycling that the cobalt that is in many of the lithium batteries possesses makes it worth about ten times as much as the lithium (Christmann et al., 2015, p. 32). An average EV battery consists of 3.5 kg of lithium, while the content of nickel and cobalt are 10.9 kg each, this high volume indicate how essential the recycling and reuse of all these materials are (Diekmann et al. 2017, p. 6184). In order to make it more economically viable to recycle the lithium, governments can provide subsidies, e.g., adding tax to each battery produced (Scrosati et al. 2015, p. 507). Other obstacles There are several different lithium batteries, which have different masses and are structured of different combinations of metals, this makes, e.g., the energy saving of recycling of different Li-batteries to vary (Dunn et al. 2012). The automatic process of the recycling is suffering because of this and the fact that different manufacturers all use different designs for the batteries (Diekmann 2017, p. 6185). Dunn et al. (2012, p. 12709) also mention that the recycling of the lithium is of less energy value compared to the other cathode materials; however, it is beneficial in other ways than energy consumption, e.g., resource conservation. This is further supported by more studies, which imply that the conservation and recycling of the materials is of utter importance (Diekmann 2017, p. 6190; Scrosati et al. 2015, p. 515). Dunn et al. (2012, p. 12709) propose a standardization of materials and design to simplify the disassembly, which would ease the process of designing equipment for automated recycling.

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3. Analysis There is no absolute answer to whether using the lithium-ion batteries in EVs are sustainable or not. Since the different views on the use of lithium batteries vary widely, depending on the values of the spectator, which factors that are considered and how broad the perspective is. There are many aspects to consider when examining the sustainability of the transition from petroleum cars to electric vehicles. This analysis focuses on the effects in both the consuming- and the mining countries. Although it is understood that many of the SDGs mostly apply to the mining countries. 3.1 Economic effects In an economic sense, the effects of the increasing adoption of EVs will have an effect on the labor market in the consuming countries in an overall positive way (Harrison 2017). As Harrison (2017, p. 22) mentions, the automotive industry already has a decline in jobs due to the increasing automation, and the increase in EVs would have a negative effect on the gasoline and diesel sectors. However, it will produce jobs in installing the charging infrastructure and in the renewable energy sector and is predicted to contribute to an increase in jobs in the automotive sector in Europe until 2030 (Harrison 2017, p. 22). Furthermore, since an increase in EVs would enable a decrease in oil imports for the European countries, more money will stay in the EU (Harrison 2017, p. 20). These outcomes would imply that the economic growth and labor-market, see goal 8 in Table 3, in the consuming countries, in this example, the European countries, will mainly be positively affected by the transition. The mining countries, in this example, Bolivia, would be affected positively from a labor market and economic growth point of view, see goal 8 in Table 3. This is, however, considering that history does not repeat itself so that the society and its inhabitants can take part of the possible wealth that the lithium offers as a popular natural resource. Improving the labor market and the economic growth would also further increase the chances of a decrease in inequality among the inhabitants, see goal 10 in Table 3, and give an opportunity to increase the sustainability of the industry at the regions, see goal 9 in Table 3. As for the consumers, the main cost is the purchase of the car, the maintenance and the operating costs of the EV are considered cheap in comparison to that of combustion cars (Neubauer et al. 2014, p. 269). Further incitements from governmental support offer a reduced cost for taxations and other subsidies for the vehicle owners in most of the European countries (Zehner 2013, p. 43). These political acts ease the purchase of the EVs and could improve the adoption of the vehicles on the European market. However, it is essential to consider the lifespan of the EVs, that is estimated to be around ten years (Deng et al. 2017, p. 288; Gratz et al. 2014, p. 256) arguably shorter than that of a regular combustion car. The consumers would have access to a more affordable energy source for their cars. However, to what extent this energy is clean or not depends a lot on the country, see goal 7 in Table 3. The SDG of affordable and clean energy has a broader perception than just switching gasoline for electricity, but small changes also contribute.

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3.2 Environmental effects From an environmental point-of-view, as stated earlier, it is important to recognize the difference between the production of electricity in the different countries (Kim & Rahimi 2014, p. 620; Montoya Sanchez de Pablo et al. 2016). This implies that the lithium batteries have a potential to lower the emissions of greenhouse gases for many countries, although many countries might even increase their emissions due to their electrical mix (Montoya Sanchez de Pablo et al. 2016). The difference in emissions from the production implies that the effect on goal 7 in Table 3 and goal 13 in Table 3 vary widely between different countries, which makes it hard to make an absolute decision about whether a broad adoption of the batteries would have a positive impact on the emissions everywhere. The lithium batteries have a positive effect on the air pollution of the urban areas (Montoya Sanchez de Pablo et al. 2016 p. 56). Although Zehner (2013, p. 45) argue that the pollution is merely reallocated from the urban areas to the industrial regions. Moving the pollution would benefit the people living in the urban areas, while the people in the rural and industrial areas would be at a disadvantage. Although, in most cases, this would mean that the most people are benefitted. However, when a bigger perspective is taken into account, and the pollution at the mining regions are considered, it is not obvious whether the lithium batteries lessen the pollution overall. In case it does, it is at the price of the living standards of the inhabitants at the mining regions. Both the air and the water are polluted at the mining regions due to toxic chemicals and toxic waste at the mines (Zehner 2013, p. 44), see goals 15 and 12 in Table 3. Hancock et al. (2017, p. 588) and Cherico Wanger (2011, p. 204) further adds that the environmental damages due to the mining have consequences on the local economy due to decreased eco-tourism. Concluding; the consuming areas can expect an overall positive effect from introducing more EVs on their markets but at the cost of the living standards of the people at the regions of the extraction, see goal 3 in Table 3. Further damage is done to these regions by the massive amounts of water that the mining requires (Hancock et al. 2017, p. 533), see goals 6 and 15 in Table 3. In order to decrease the top-load on the power grid, it is commonly suggested that the owners of EVs use strategic charging, by charging the cars when the power usage is not at peak-level (Arghya & Sajid 2011, p. 3). This would require fewer investments in improving the power grid, which in turn would save money for the countries. Although Kim & Rahimi (2014, p. 620) proves in their study that, e.g. Los Angeles would increase its emissions by doing this since the power grid is, to a big extent run on coal during the off-peak hours. However, this would give incentives for the countries to use more renewable energy sources even during off-peak hours, to decrease the emissions. 3.3 Social effects Bolivia, among other lithium mining countries, can make a profit from the rising industry. However, for Bolivia, this requires governmental actions in order to keep the money within the country, e.g., by job generation, infrastructure development (Taylor & Bonner 2017) and investing in social-welfare programs (Revette 2017, p. 154), see goal 3 in Table 3. Although the history of Bolivia has shown clear patterns of oppressing the indigenous

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people, resulting in poverty and plundering (Revette 2017, p. 154). All of this implies that the Bolivian government has the opportunity to increase the living standards in the country on a long-term basis. However, this requires that the government resist a short-term solution by selling rights to foreign corporations and instead focus on developing the country by creating jobs and investing in the regions of the mining. A successful example of this is Peru, who uses governmentally controlled mining and the revenue is reinvested in the mining areas (Taylor & Bonner 2017, p. 6). Keeping the financial flow from the lithium extraction within the country would mean that Bolivia would take part of the $100 billion business that the lithium industry is forecasted to be worth by 2030 (LeVine 2010, p. 90). Furthermore, this would likely increase the opportunities for the Bolivian government to reach their sustainable goals of cleaner water, decreasing poverty and hunger as well as increasing their educational quality (Hancock et al. 2017, p. 558). An increase in financial stability would improve the chances of a positive outcome on the social SDGs in the future, see goals 1, 2, 4 and 6 Table 3. However, both the historical and the current effects from the extraction of natural resources have been mostly negative from a social point of view. Table 3. Possible overall effects of the increased adoption of EVs on the different aspects of sustainability

for supplying and consuming countries. Goal In short Effect on the

supplying countries Effect on the consuming countries

1 No poverty Positive No change 2 Zero hunger Positive No change 3 Good health and well-being Negative* No change 4 Quality education Positive No change 6 Clean water and sanitation Negative* No change 7 Affordable and clean energy Negative Negative* 8 Decent work and economic

growth Negative* Positive

9 Industry, innovation, and infrastructure

Positive Positive

10 Reduced inequalities Negative* No change 13 Climate action Negative No change 15 Life on land Negative* No change

* = Current effect from the EVs adoption, but if the promised political actions are fulfilled, this state might change.

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4. Discussion and Conclusions Air pollution and increasing greenhouse gases are problems that need to be solved. Lowering the emissions of the transport sector would definitely make a difference. However, only as long as the increased power supply that is required does not increase the emissions from power plants enough to increase the overall level of emissions. In that case, it is obviously not the right solution. Hence, this problem will not be solved by just changing the fuel of the transport sector. This complex problem might instead be solved by changing the production of the electricity to the power grid, along with implementing alternative fuels for the transport sector. The lithium-ion batteries are not a sustainable solution today, but if the production of electricity changes on a wide scale, their sustainability is at least increased. Furthermore, the recycling of the lithium batteries has to be improved for them to become sustainable. It is of significant value that the metals in the batteries are recycled and reused, considering the increasing consumption and the limited supply. To make the supply sufficient for a long time, and keep the negative effects of the mining maintained at a minimal level. However, there are many difficulties to solve before the EVs can be adopted fully, the infrastructural investments for charging stations, and improvements of the batteries to increase the range and lifespan to make them more attractive to consumers. Considering that there are almost as many variances of batteries as there are manufacturers (Diekmann 2017, p. 6185; Dunn et al. 2012). Standardization of the batteries design and materials are a suggested solution (Dunn et al. 2012, p. 12709). This solution is a good way to improve the recycling and manufacturing of the lithium-ion batteries, although it might slow down the development and improvement of the batteries. Whether the development is more important than the recycling is a whole other question in itself, but standardization is not necessarily the best way to optimize both of these areas. One suggestion could be that the manufacturers are held responsible for the recycling of their batteries. This could mean that developing a more efficient battery would mean less recycling for each manufacturer and that an incentive for effective recycling is given to each manufacturer. The lithium mining currently affects the local regions of Bolivia negatively, by inequalities, (Humphreys Bebbington 2013) pollution (Cherico Wanger 2011, p. 204), and other environmental effects that have further consequences on the local economy (Hancock et al. 2017, p. 558; Cherico Wanger 2011, p. 204). However, considering the political change that the current government promises (Hancock et al. 2017, p. 558), the country’s prospects are positive. However, making these kinds of changes in a country takes time, the view on laborers has to change along with conserving the environment. Promises like these are easier to make than to carry through, hence the Bolivian government has to prove their trustworthiness to the people. A problem that this study encountered was that most of the literature studies consisted of the same information, which made it difficult to get hold of different views of the subject. Most studies encountered were based on estimations of the future development of each

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country and market, although supported by historical evidence and legitimate computations. Considering this area is comparatively new, its history is quite short, and the change of the market is in progress. In 2030, a period which most of the studies cover, these estimations might not be very accurate. A different method that could be used to widen the perspective of the results would be to execute a field study or close cooperation with research institutes.

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Harrison, P 2017, ‘Low-carbon cars in Germany: A summary of socio-economic impacts’, Cambridge Econometrics Humphreys Bebbington, D 2013, ‘Extraction, inequality and indigenous people: insights from Bolivia’, ‘Environmental Science and Policy’, vol. 33, pp. 438-446

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