© research and development centre of kajaani 2003 the case of kainuu development situation of a...

© Research and Development Centre of Kajaani 2003

The Case of Kainuu

Development situation of a remote and sparsely populated region

20.2.2003

Director Pentti MalinenResearch and Development Centre of Kajaani

The Case of Kainuu

Development situation of a remote and sparsely populated region

20.2.2003

Director Pentti MalinenResearch and Development Centre of Kajaani


My backgroundMy background

• Director of the Research and Development Centre of Kajaani, University of Oulu (2000-)

• Researcher of Finnish rural and regional policy (1990-1999)– Finnish Rural Typology (1993 and 2000)– Rural policy and Northern Dimension of EU Policies (1999)

• Evaluator of EU Programmes and Projects (1994-)– Interim evaluations of Finnish 5b, LEADER Programs 1995-99– Ex ante evaluations of Finnish 1,2 and & INTERREG (2000)– Interim evaluations of Finnish Rural Dev. Programme and

LEADER

• Expert, in international projects (1994-)– Best-practices in Local Development in the Northern Periphery– EU/COST A12 ”Rural Innovation”/ Evaluation


THE CASE: Kainuu, Finland

• The region of Kainuu is one of the most sparsely populated areas of the EU with its 88 000 inhabitants

• The area of Kainuu is 24 452 km2

– Compared with Belgium 30 500 km2

• population density of 4 inh./km2

– In Belgium 326 inh./km2

• 260 km common border with Russia

• The population density varies in Finland so that it is lowest in the Northern and Eastern parts of the country


POPULATION DENSITY BY MUNICIPALITIES

Research and Development Centre of Kajaani 1998

Pop. Density by municipalities, pop./km2

0.25 - 4.99 (92)5.00 - 9.99 (126)

10.00 - 19.99 (111)20.00 - 2 874.69 (123)

W hole country

Towns and cities

Econ. Integrated mun.

Intermediate mun.

Island mun.

Remote mun.

0 300 600

Pop./km2

Pop. density by rural areas


Kainuu in European context

The Northern Dimension became a topical issue when Finland and Sweden joined the European Union in 1995, which meant that it included for the first time

• a broad, sparsely-populated region of a rural character that was

• climatically different from its core area and • had a substantial border with Russia. EU responded this situation by the Objective 6

based on population density criterion (8 inh./km2)

Northern Periphery– Is area consisting the northernmost parts of Nordic

Countries (Obj. 1 areas) and Highlands and Island in Scotland

– Has its own specific Interreg development programme in EU

• Common characteristics & Challenges– rurality of the North– cold climate (long winter, short growing season) – peripherality limits but also include strengths for

development– sparse population and ”thinning-out”– fast pace of structural change -> loss of endogenous

potential

• The most powerful national and EU regional policy measures were implemented in Kainuu region in 1995-99

– Objective 6

– Karelian Interreg II; Northern Periphery

– LEADERII/ two LAGs

– national rural and urban policy and

– Centre of Expertice programme

• Each policy is based on slightly different principles behind their implementation, but all programmes share a general aim to strengthen the local economy.

• Ex Post evaluations confirm the benefits of these policies despite the development gaps within the country have not converged

Objectives 1995-99

Obj. 2obj. 5bObj. 6Others


REGIONAL POLICY MEASURES 1995 - 1999


OBJECTIVE 1 PROGRAMMES 2000 -2006

Data: Statistics Finland

GDP/capita 2000Finland = 100

40 - 59 (21)60 - 74 (27)75 - 99 (22)

100 - 178 (15) Tavo ite 1 -a lueTavo ite 2 -a lueSiir tymäkauden a lue

Maakunta raja

Seuk untaraja

S u om e n E U -a lu eo hje lm ientav o itea lu ee t 20 00 - 2 00 6

L ä h d e: T K/ S is ä as ia in m i nist er i ö

< 30

30 – 50

50 – 75

75 – 100

100 – 125

> = 125

MT:1999

Source: Eurostat

Index: EU-25 = 100


GDP per head by region (PPS) 2000

• Unemployment rate in Kainuu has remained on the highest level in Finland (see also next slide)

• The core of the problem is the long-term character of umployment on the regional level


Data: Ministry of Labour, Finland

National average = 10.8 %

Unemployment rate, %in october 2002

0.9 - 7.4 (88)7.5 - 9.9 (99)

10.0 - 12.4 (112)12.5 - 14.9 (71)15.0 - 26.4 (78)

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BY MUNICIPALITIES 10/2002, %.

0

5

10

15

20

25

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Year

%

Non eligible areas

Objective 1

Objective 2

Transition period areas

Finland as a whole

Data: Ministry of Labour© Research and Development Centre of Kajaani 2003

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BY OBJECTIVES 1991-2002, %.

• From the point of development sparse population restricts economic development – expensive to maintain economic

activity (transport costs)– higher per capita costs for

education, infrastructure and other public services

• The aim of economic and social cohesion acquires a special content in the case Kainuu and similar regions:

• to maintain settlement and the regional structure in long term1 0 05 0

k ilo m e tre s

0

P o p u la tio n c h a n g e b y m u n ic ip a lit ie s1 9 9 8 -2 0 3 0 , %

-3 7.8 - -9 .9 (1 7 0 )-1 0.0 - -0 .1 (1 4 0 )

0 .0 - 9 .9 (9 6 )1 0 .0 - 3 9 .4 (4 6 )

M u n ic ip a lity b o rd e r

R e g io n b o rd e r

-16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12

1a Remote

1b Islands

Intermediate

Econ.Integrated

Towns andcities

Wholecountry

%

Population change by rural areas, %


POPULATION CHANGE BY MUNICIPALITIES AND RURAL AREAS 1998-2030, %

• Kainuu and most of the rural Finland is losing their population due to out-migration and low birth rates

• These problems are share by many areas in Europe

• but in our case the risks are much higher since the population density is already extremely low

Square km2 grid cells, %

4,1 - 11,9 (24)12,0 - 15,9 (21)16,0 - 18,9 (19)19,0 - 29,4 (24)


SHARE OF GRID CELLS UNDER THREAT TO BE UNOCCUPIED BY DISTRICT UNITS, %

1980

5000 3000 1000 1000 3000 5000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-

Miehet Naiset

2000

5000 3000 1000 1000 3000 5000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-

Miehet Naiset

2020

5000 3000 1000 1000 3000 5000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-

Miehet Naiset


AGE STRUCTURE OF KAINUU 1980 - 2000 AND PROGNOS TO THE YEAR 2020

Men Women Men WomenMen Women

• The population structure is ageing all over the Europe

• In Finland population trends show that the dependency rate in the future will be the worst in the Northern and Eastern Finland

• this means that a greater number of people have to be supported by fewer people

• in the long run this causes economic crisis in the small municipalities


DEPEDENCY RATE BY MUNICIPALITIES IN 2030

Pop. (0-14 & 65-)/ pop.15-64


National average = 0.71

Depedency rate 2030

0.51 - 0.79 (120)0.80 - 0.88 (113)0.89 - 0.99 (107)1.00 - 1.26 (108)

• Dependency rate is substantially changing over the next twenty year and this change is evitable

• Furthermore, this the rate of change is fastest in the Northern and Eastern Finland

• My question is: – should we include

dependency rate as a new eligibility criteria for Objective 1?


CHANGE OF DEPEDENCY RATE BY MUNICIPALITIES 2002 – 2030, %.


National average = 43 %

Chance of dependencyrate 2002 - 2030, %

5 - 40 (123)40 - 50 (107)50 - 62 (106)62 - 163 (112)


LONG DISTANCES WITHIN THE REGIONS


Distance (km) to the nearest population centre by roadnet

• Kainuu includes ten municipalities (the local administrative units)

• Only the closest centres to Kajaani form a commuting area (labour market area)

• The remote municipalities must keep their endogenous development in order to survive

• and because their are small (2000 – 12 000 inhabitants) this task is challenging

PERIPHERALITY IN EUROPEAN SCALE

• The development situation caused by low population density and long distances is possible to operationalise also by a consept of peripherality


• As a special measure for new regional policy in Finland we have introduced the policy for centres of expertise.

• It is a Finnish version of capacity building policy.

• At the moment we have two fields of expertice selected in the Programme of Kainuu


DEVELOPMENT OF EXPERTICE

• The idea of the Center of Expertise Programme is to utilise top level knowledge and expertise as a resource for business operations, job creation and regional development.

• The Programmes are selected by competition and external evaluation of applications.The Programme seeks to identify regional strengths and create economic growth; – to increase the number of competitive products, services,

enterprises and jobs based on the highest standard of expertise; – to attract international investment and leading experts; and – to continually reinforce and regenerate regional expertise.


Centre of Expertice Programme

• The most fragile including the extremely sparse populated areas need strong cohesion-oriented regional development policy on EU level supported by national integrated policy approach

• The most peripheral and lagging regions need capacity building - policy measures that aim at developing these regions as base for their own expertise


MY CONCLUSIONSMY CONCLUSIONS


MY CONCLUSIONSMY CONCLUSIONS

• Problems connected with remoteness are best experienced and understood at the local level, and as the will to develop the region is embodied in the local people, any attempt at development can be best implemented through an administrative structure in which maxinum resources and responsbility are assigned to local administrative authorities and development actors.


MORE INFORMATION

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© research and development centre of kajaani 2003 the case of kainuu development situation of a...

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