yves boutonnat for safe food - 02 14 2008 presentation to safe food nsw february 14, 2008
TRANSCRIPT
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
Presentation to Safe Food NSWFebruary 14, 2008
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
There are approximately There are approximately 98 000 dairy farms98 000 dairy farms employing employing 200 000 people200 000 people, ,
looking after looking after 4,4 million milking cows4,4 million milking cows
and producing and producing 24 billion litres24 billion litres of milk of milk per year per year
+ + 6 000 6 000 goat farmsgoat farms
+ 4 200 + 4 200 ewe farmsewe farms
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
The 98 000 dairy farms deliver annually 23 billion litres of milk to …
… 700 processing plants, employing 64 000 people
and generating 23,5 billions €.
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
The productions of the French dairy sector - 2006 -
3,7 milliards de litres of liquid milk 11%
2,2 millions de tonnes of yogurt and desert 7%
1,7 million de tonnes of cheese 38%
338 000 tonnes of cream 6%
400 000 tonnes of butter 19%
533 000 tonnes of powder milk 13%
36 000 tonnes of caséines 2%
590 000 tonnes lactoserum powder 3%
Share of collect (usable dry
material collected)
Mass
consumption products
72 % of collected milk
Industrial products
28 % of collected milk of
Source : ATLA
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
Laguiole Bleu d’Auvergne
Beaufort
Bleu du Vercors
Cantal
Fourme d’Ambert
Fourme de Montbrison
Tome des Bauges
Reblochon
Abondance
Bleu de Gex
Salers
BeurreCharente-Poitou Comté
Morbier
Mont d’Or
Munster
LangresChaource
Epoisses
MaroillesNeufchâtel
Livarot
Camembert de Normandie
Beurre & Crème d’Isigny
Brie de MeauxPont l’Evêque
Bleu des Causses
Saint Nectaire
Brie de Melun
A.O.P. Cow’s Milk
Cow : 28 A.O.P.
Butter : 2 A.O.P.
Cream : 1 A.O.P.
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
millions d'euros
Exports in valueImports in valueBalance in value
French international trade of dairy products (to EU and other countries)
The international trade of dairy products
The foreign outlet : To day :
a « dairy product » positive balance of 2 billions per year
To morrow : decrease of restitutions increase of the imports ?
Source : ATLA
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
Export markets Export markets essentielly europeansessentielly europeans but 20% of exports go to other foreign countriesbut 20% of exports go to other foreign countries
Value of french exports of dairy products(Millions d’€)
BelgiqueBelgique550550
AllemagneAllemagne672672
Pays BasPays Bas211211
ItalieItalie422422
Roy. UniRoy. Uni424424
EspagneEspagne513513 MaghrebMaghreb
112112
Reste Reste AfriqueAfrique
8080
Am. du NordAm. du Nord152152
PECO et CEIPECO et CEI3434
Proche et Moyen Proche et Moyen OrientOrient
9696
Reste AsieReste Asie146146
OcéanieOcéanie66
Total Exports : 4 007 millions d’€ of which EU 25 : 3 181 millions d’€ other foreign countries : 826 millions d’€
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
The french are heavy consumers of dairy productsThe french are heavy consumers of dairy products(annual consumption, kg/habitant)(annual consumption, kg/habitant)
RangKg
d'équivalents lait
FromageLait
liquide
1 Finlande 496 France 24,1 Finlande 160,02 Suède 450 Italie 20,5 Irlande 156,73 France 406 Allemagne 19,7 Suède 131,14 Allemagne 384 Danemark 17,3 Danemark 121,25 Autriche 371 Pays Bas 16,7 Roy. Uni 119,56 Danemark 344 Suède 16,6 Portugal 94,77 UEBL 328 Autriche 16,1 Pays Bas 88,28 Pays Bas 320 UEBL 15,8 Autriche 83,59 Italie 300 Portugal 10,2 France 73,3
10 Irlande 285 Roy. Uni 8,1 Allemagne 63,411 Roy. Uni 280 Irlande 5,8 Italie 62,712 Grèce 20713 Portugal 19914 Espagne 189
Cheese Liquid milk
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
The dairy products outputs (excluding milk powder)
Breakdown of volume consumption - Summary year 2005
Products
Consumption Household/sales
Food service Industry
Fluid milk 86% 14% 0%Cream 62% 16% 22%Butter 45% 10% 45%Cheeses (1) 79% 9% 12%Yogurt & Desert (2) 89% 11% 0%
TOTAL 81% 12% 7%
(1) Inc fresh salted cheese (2) Ex. fresh salted cheese
Source : CNIEL
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
Breakdown of households food spendings2006
The dairy sector gathers up almost one fifth of all food spendings
•Fruits & vegetables
•10% (+1,9%)
•Sea food
•4% (-2,7%)
•Meat & poultry
•14% (-0,5%)
•Delicatessen
•12% (+3,5%) •Drinks •9% (+1,0%)
•Dairy •18% (-0,5%)
•Frozen food•6% (+3,7%)
•Grocery •27% (+0,4%)
•Evol total : +0,7%
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
What dairy products for tomorrow?
• Decline of products used as ingredients (standard milk, butter) for home usages that are becoming obsolete (pastry, home made sauces, and elaborate cooking).
• Increase of culinary aids: plain or flavoured creams, cooking cheese (spreadable, gratin, etc..), ready to use sauces.
• Multiplication of recipies and new targeted offers to dismantle the monolith image of some markets (« milk is just milk »).
• Increase of personalised single shares, a work largely done by yogurts and dairy deserts, partially by cheese and still to be invented for butter and milk
• Setting up of meal solutions based on dairy products for out of home consumption. Development of cheese based meal solutions for home consumption.
• Ageing of the population : development of a dairy offer adapted to the needs of senior consumers (nutrition, packaging, advises).
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
U&A - Base = 1013 people
A food family with a very positive image
in %
65
62
60
45
39
37
22
23
19
26
26
29
6
7
9
14
13
15
4
4
6
10
12
10
3
4
6
5
10
9
Yaourts
Fromage
Lait
Beurre
Desserts lactés
Crème fraîche ou UHT longueconservation
8-10 6-7 5 3-4 0-2
7,8/10
7,6/10
7,4/10
6,8/10
6,3/10
6,3/10
Average note
Q9b.J e vais vous présenter différents produits laitiers. Pour chaque produit, je vous demanderai de me donner une note de 0 à 10. 0 signifie que vous avez une très mauvaise opinion de ce produit, 10 signifie que vous en avez une très bonne opinion, les notes intermédiaires servent à nuancer votre jugement.
Source : CSA
yogurts
butter
dairy deserts
cream fresh or UHT
cheese
milk
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
1
1
5
11
50
55
74
7
55
49
54
3
13
4
100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100
Milk
Yogurts
Cheese
Butter
Dairy deserts
Fresh cream
nsp
+ 70
+ 52
+ 37
- 43
- 44
- 54
Less healthy Most healthy
(55)
(2)
(/)
(19)
(22)
(/)
(2)
(1)
(4)
(35)
(28)
(22)
(00) : the most healty (first quote); (00) : the less healthy (first quote)
Q9b. Et toujours parmi ces produits, pouvez vous me donner ceux que vous estimez être les 2 meilleurs pour la santé ? et les 2 moins bons pour la santé ?
En %
U&A - Base = 1013 people
But there is a clear gap between two families
of dairy products
Source : CSA
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
N°1 in popularity
About the following types of farming, can you tell me if you have an excellent, good, bad or very bad opinion?
Dairy farming comes ahead of all types of farmingDairy farming comes ahead of all types of farming
Dairy farming enjoys an excellent opinionDairy farming enjoys an excellent opinionpositive forpositive for (90%)(90%)
. . Wine growingWine growing (83%)(83%)
.. Fruits and vegetablesFruits and vegetables (82%)(82%)
.. Bovine meat Bovine meat (77%)(77%)
.. Cereals Cereals (71%)(71%)
.. And a less positive opinion And a less positive opinion for porks and poultryfor porks and poultry (50%)(50%)
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
Increased trust over the last 5 years
45
24
46
51
8
23
1
2
2006
2001
améliorée inchangée dégradée nsp
Your trust in dairy farmers
Would you say that over the past 10 years, the situation has improvedgotten worse, or remained inchanged?
Basis total 2006 : 1001
Basis total 2001 : 927
en %
improved unchanged got worse
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
Dairy farming : controlled modernity
Requires a real know-how Requires a real know-how (96%)(96%)
Is more and more a professional managerIs more and more a professional manager (87%)(87%)
Is a dynamique and entrepreneurial person Is a dynamique and entrepreneurial person (91%)(91%)
Portrait of a real professional …
And would you agree totally, rather yes, rather not or not at all to say that the trade of dairy farming is a trade that… ?
He knows how to combine productivity and quality He knows how to combine productivity and quality (85%)(85%)
He is eager to improve and modernise He is eager to improve and modernise (87%)(87%)
For each sentence, tell me if you agree totally, rather yes, rather no or not at all…
… … master of his lifemaster of his life
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
Are farmers who work a lot for a small revenue Are farmers who work a lot for a small revenue (84% )(84% )
Who deserve to get help to maintain farming and life in the country Who deserve to get help to maintain farming and life in the country (87% )(87% )
A difficult trade and situation…
And would you agree totally, rather yes, rather not or not at all to say that the trade of dairy farming is a trade… ?
And would you agree totally, rather yes, rather not or not at all to say that dairy farmers… ?
A trade with an uncertain future…A trade with an uncertain future…
only 1 french person out of 2, think it has a future only 1 french person out of 2, think it has a future (51%)(51%)
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
…but they are essential actors of the economy
And would you agree totally, rather yes, rather not or not at all to say that the trade of dairy farming is a trade… ?
An indispensable trade An indispensable trade (76%)(76%)
Important actors of the economyImportant actors of the economy (88%)(88%)
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
An essential role to play …
… … at environmental and social levels…at environmental and social levels…
To maintain rural life To maintain rural life (90%)(90%)
For quality of life in France For quality of life in France (80%)(80%)
To keep up the landscape To keep up the landscape (76%)(76%)
And do you agree totally, rather yes, rather not or not at all with the following assesments? Dairy farmers play an essential role…
20
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
Dairy markets : where do we stand ? Where are we going ?
The changes in agricultural policies
What prospects for the producers ?
Outlook on the Dairy sector
21
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
A world gone crazy…
World rates in $
Butter skim milk powder fat powder
22
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
Why this situation ?The present situation results
from the conjunction of 3 factors :
-The increase in world demand
- The drying out of the world market
-The drop in the collection in Europe
23
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
Will this last over the long/medium term ?
The prospects of dairy consumption are related to :
-The increase of the world’s wealth
-The increase in population
24
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
Annual growth of GDP (PIB) (%)1997-2006 2007-2016
WORLD 3.98 4.50 DEVELOPED (pays développés) 3.78 3.08 NORTH AMERICA 3.03 2.54 WESTERN EUROPE 2.47 2.12
OCEANIA DEVELOPED 3.40 2.66 OTHER DEVELOPED 2.89 2.66 TRANSITION 5.95 4.23 DEVELOPING (pays en développement) 4.04 4.95 AFRICA 4.54 4.89 LATIN AMER & CARIB 1.98 3.70 ASIA & PACIFIC 4.92 5.65 LDC 5.16 5.14 OTHER DEVELOPING 3.75 4.88
Source FAO 2007
25
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
GROWTH OF POPULATION IN URBAN AREAS
Source FAO 2007
0,00,51,01,52,02,53,03,54,04,5
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Bil
lio
n
DevelopingUrbanPopulation
DevelopedUrbanPopulation
26
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
This brings prospects of consumption growth for all products …
Source FAO 2007
0
5
10
15
20
25
2006 2016 2006 2016 2006 2016 2006 2016
mil
lio
n t
on
ne
s
Developing
Developed
Beurre Fromage LEP P. grasse
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
PECO + CEI102%
223 kg/hab.South East Asia
71%18 kg/hab.Maghreb + PMO
81%83 kg/hab.
ALENA99%
231 kg/hab.
Central America + Caribbean71%
71 kg/hab.
South America98%
138 kg/hab.
Other Africa89%
25 kg/hab.
Southern Asia99%
81 kg/hab.
Oceania236%
331 kg/hab
Occidental Europe 109%
286 kg/hab.
1 zone in slight surplus4 zones in deficit
4 zones balanced or almost 1 zone strongly export oriented
…with contrasting potential of evolution in the big blocks
Self sufficiency in dairy products and level of apparent consumption per cqpita
28
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
Today, the question is not whether the markets are
expanding or not
It is whether the milk producers in the world will be able to meet
the demand
On the markets level
29
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
Very few regions can produce milk
30
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
Few are growing
31
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
The key question is whether the emerging countries will be able to
develop their dairy production
It may be YES for Brazil and India
It is NO for Russia, Ukraine and Argentina
What about China ?
32
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
Whatever happens, a large part of the world supply will be expected
from the traditional dairy producing blocks : Europe, the USA and
Oceania
But in these countries, two new phenomenoms will interfere :
the biofuels and the climatic change
33
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
Development of Ethanol production in USA
0
10
20
30
40
50
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
bill
ion
litr
es o
f et
han
ol
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
mill
ion
t (
mai
ze)
Ethanol production Maize useRen. Fuel Standard
Source FAO 2007
34
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
Development of Biofuels in Europe
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
bill
ion
litr
es o
f b
iofu
els
0
5
10
15
20
25
mill
ion
t (
cro
ps)
Ethanol Biodiesel Wheat useMaize use Oilseeds use
Source FAO 2007
35
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
Climatic change is real in Australia
Source ADF 2007
36
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
Results of a survey over australian farmers : what will be the biggest challenge in the coming
years ?
Source ADF 2007
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
price of milk
profits
cost of feed
cost of other inputs
water
labour
climate
% of farms
2004
2005
2007
37
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
Consequently, everyone anticipates an increase in the price of dairy products
in the coming years
With however a strong volatility due to the disappearance of agricultural
policies
38
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
39
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
It is necessarily bad
May be it will fail…
L’OMC / TWO
40
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
We are heading towards a total desabling of the PAC as the treaty of
Rome set it
There is no more regulation by the public authority
The challenge is therefore to get organised at interprofessional level to
palliate public pulling out
Health check In summary
41
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
Dairy markets : where do we stand ? Where are we going ?
The changes in agricultural policies
What prospects for the farmers ?
42
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
Develop and keep the value in our branch
Defend the french dairy model
Prepare the future in terms of economic organisation
The three fundamentals
43
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
Keep the value in our branch
« Mr President, this is not about your popularity, but the price increase of a camembert »
44
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
Keep the value in our branch
Dairy products. Our friends for life
WE WILL NOT BE MADE A FOOL OF !
45
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
Milk is a social model in itself
It must be defended in political circles
It’s the « European parliamentary day » 2008 event
Defend our model
46
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
-Investment fund- Milk Institute
- Contractualisation
Prepare the future in terms of economic
organisation
47
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
We are experiencing a radical change
The interprofession will have a very big part to play
The role of farmers tomorrowis at stake to day
Conclusions
48
Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008
Thank you for your attention