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SASA Newsletter September 2014

1 Tribute to Andrew Dale

2 Editorial

New members

3 President’s Column

Itinerary – official visitors

Notice – AGM

4 SASA 2014 Conference

5 Report from Gauteng Chapter

7 Education Committee news

9 ICOTS 9 Convention

11 ICCSSA Convention

12 Call for 2015 Conference Host and Visitors

Tribute to Andrew Dale

Prof. Emeritus Andrew Ian Dale of Statistics at the University of KwaZulu-Natal (UKZN),

having completed a B.Sc. (Hons, 1964) and M.Sc. in Mathematics at the University of Cape Town (1966) was appointed to a lectureship in the Mathematics Department in 1968 at the University of Natal (UN), of which Statistics was then a part. He resigned in 1969 and moved to the United States of America (USA) to start a Ph.D. (in genetic statistics) at the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and the State University of Blacksburg. He returned to Natal, South Africa, at the beginning of 1972 after completing the degree, and was first appointed to a post in the Mathematics Department and moved to Statistics in 1974. Andrew was appointed as Associate Professor at the UN, now

known as the UKZN, in 1979. He applied for the chair of Statistics after Prof. A.A. Rayner retired in 1980 and was appointed, but he decided to stay on the Howard College campus. While still at the Howard College Campus, he could always be spotted walking to and from work along Ridge Road which has plenty of steep hills. He would be reading his book and smoking his pipe on his walk! People always wondered how he never fell. He loves his dogs and part of his daily routine is taking the dogs for a walk.

In 1990 Andrew was one of some twenty people invited world-wide to participate in a symposium on the history of statistics held in Oberwolfach, Germany. Furthermore, he is a fellow of SASA and the RSS, a member of the ASA and IMS, and the SA representative on the International Commission on the History of Mathematics. He was appointed Professor in 1994.

Several periods of sabbatical leave, spent at various universities in the United Kingdom and the USA, allowed him to pursue his interest in the history of statistics and probability, and resulted in the publication of four books by Springer-Verlag. These are:

• AHistoryofInverseProbabilityfromThomasBayestoKarlPearson. 1991. (2nd Ed. 1999).

• P.S.Laplace:PhilosophicalEssayonProbabilities. 1995.

Newsletter of the South African Statistical Association • Nuusbrief van die Suid-Afrikaanse Statistiese VerenigingPostal Address: SASA, PO Box 3341, Matieland, 7602 South Africa

SASA NEWS/SASV NUUSWebsite: www.sastat.org.za

This issue is sponsored by

ISSN 1011-8039 September 2014

continue on p2

http://www.sastat.org.za/


...

New members

President’s column

Welcome!

Ms TD Awaye, Educator, [email protected]

Ms M Botes, Junior Statistician, Lightstone, [email protected]

Prof S Chakraborti Professor, University of Alabama, [email protected]

Mr R Chifurira, Lecturer, Vaal University of Technology, [email protected]

Mr R Chiruka, Lecturer, University of Fort Hare, [email protected]

Ms ED Chirwa, [email protected]

Dr R Ehlers, Senior Lecturer, University of Pretoria, [email protected]

Mr M Engelbrecht, Statistical consultant, [email protected]

Mr C-S Huang, Lecturer,University of Cape Town, [email protected]

Mr CH Korkpoe, Lecturer,University of Venda, [email protected]

Mr W Law, Statistician, Lightstone, [email protected]

Mr L Malaba, Statistician, Plus 94 Research, [email protected]

Mr H Maluleke, Junior Lecturer, University of Limpopo, [email protected]

Mr I Mudhombo, Lecturer, UNISA, [email protected]

Mr E Mutsika, Research analyst, MTD Research, [email protected]

Ms L Page, Property Statistician, Lightstone, [email protected]

Ms A Phaswana, Statistician Trainee, Eskom, [email protected]

Mrs A Ramalata, Tutor, University of Limpopo, [email protected]

Dr AA Turasie, Lecturer, University of the Witwatersrand, [email protected] g

• MostHonourableRemembrance:ThelifeandworkofThomasBayes. 2003.

• ArthurL.Bowley:APioneerinModernStatisticsandEconomics (co-authored with Samuel Kotz). 2011. World Scientific.

Andrew published many papers on probability theory and the history of statistics in a number of journals and contributed chapters or articles in various publications, of which many were on Thomas Bayes. He supervised many post-graduate studies and acted as a reviewer for many journals and books. He was an associate SASJ editor for many years. g

CompliedbyGlendaMatthewsandMarieSmith

EditorialDear SASA members

We are looking forward to the SASA 2014 conference to be hosted by the University of Rhodes from 27 to 30 October this year. You will find the itinerary of the overseas visitors in this issue. Hope to see you all there!

This issue of the newsletter contains the president’s column, a tribute to Andrew Dale, the announcement of the AGM and the call for the 2015 SASA conference host and overseas visitors.

In the news from the education committee the winners of the 2013/2014 SASA student project competition sponsored by SAS® are announced. Congratulations to you all. Information on SASA scholarship and bursaries is also given. Feedback on the ICOTS9 conference is included.

The Gauteng chapter reported on its first meeting and a report on the ICCSSA convention held in Durban is also included. We thank Unisa for sponsoring this issue.

Welcome to all new members. g

Mardi

.....from p1

Contact details for the newsletter editorDr. Mardi D Jankowitz University of South Africa Department of Decision Sciences Preller Street, Muckleneuk Ridge, Pretoria, P O Box 392, UNISA 0003 Telephone: +27 12 429 4629 Fax: +27 12 429 4898 email: [email protected]

Please send all Newsletter matters to the Editor at the above address, and all other SASA matters to

The Secretary, P.O. Box 3341, Matieland, 7602, South Africaemail: [email protected]

The Newsletter is an informal collection of news items and short articles of interest.The Newsletter will appear in March, June, September and December. Submission deadlines: Issue Deadline DateMarch 1 February June 1 MaySeptember 1 AugustDecember 1 NovemberThe views expressed in this Newsletter are those of the contributors and do not necessarily reflect the policies of the SA Statistical Association or the editor of the Newsletter.Designed by Graphcom Design Studio cc

mailto:[email protected]






President’s Column

Dear SASA members

Wednesdays are normally called hump day, has the meaning of climbing a

proverbial hill to get through a tough week. I guess we are now in a hump month, since we are now in the last stretch before the end of the year and our annual conference is around the corner. Early bird registration has closed and all abstracts should have been submitted by now. We are looking forward to meet up and network again with fellow statisticians at this year’s event in Grahamstown. We have excellent guest speakers at this year’s conference and I am confident that their research topics will interest a large number of participants.

Since the previous edition of the newsletter, it came to our attention that the latest provisional scarce skills list issued by the Department of Higher Education and Training (DHET), Statistics and the application thereof is no longer seen as a scarce science or skill. However, on the previous scarce

skills list issued by the Department of Labour, Statisticians were included. The minister of DHET issued in April this year a call for comments on the National Scarceskillslist:thetop100occupationsindemand(Notice380of2014). There was an overwhelming concern from various stakeholders in South Africa that we as Statistical Association should act on the call. SASA with the endorsement of ICCSSA, most Statistics Departments at Universities, Research Councils, Industry, as well as Statistics South Africa and the Statistics Council, submitted a report to the minister containing reasons and justifications to be included. Further, we have emphasised that the state of Statistics at academic institutions is in a crisis. The report has been received by the office of the minister on 20 June 2014 and feedback was promised within 30 days. SASA has not yet received any feedback regarding the submission of the report.

In our last meeting, August 2014, the Executive Committee had a very positive discussion with

representatives from the recently established Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (CoE-MS). The deputy director and the dean of Science from WITS University briefed the EC about the background and aims of the CoE-MS. One of the concerns raised was that the CoE-MS is based at WITS and therefore may have only a localised interest in promoting and enhancing statistical research in the northern regions of South Africa. In response, we were assured that the CoE-MS is funded by the NRF and therefore support all statistical activities and research equally in the whole of South Africa. It was a very fruitful discussion and it was arranged that the director of the centre will also address SASA members at our annual conference in Grahamstown. Delegates will then have an opportunity to gain further information about the aims of the CoE-MS. We are looking forward to a lively and interactive discussion at this year’s SASA conference.

PaulMostertg

NoticeThe SASA AGM is scheduled for 12:00 on Wednesday 29 October 2014. If you want to put any item on the agenda, contact the secretary of the Executive Committee by 15 October 2014.

Professor Ivette GomesUniversity of Lisbon, PortugalArrives in South Africa: 24 October 2014

Visits Rhodes University & SASA conference: 24 – 31 October 2014

Visits Stellenbosch University: 31 October 2014 – 4 November 2014

Visits the University of the Free State: 4 – 5 November 2014

Visits the University of Pretoria: 5 – 7 November 2014

Departs: 7 November 2014 g

Professor Simos MeintanisNational and Kapodistrian University of Athens, GreeceArrives in South Africa: 18 October 2014

Visits the North-West University: 18 – 22 October 2014

Visits the University of Pretoria: 22 – 24 October 2014

Visits Rhodes University & SASA conference: 24 – 31 October 2014

Departs: 31 October 2014 g

Itinerary SASA 2014 Conference official visitors


CONFERENCE 27—30 October 2014

Rhodes University, Grahamstown, South Africa

The South African Statistical Association (SASA) and the Department of Statistics at Rhodes University are proud to host the 56th annual SASA conference.

Venue: Rhodes University, Grahamstown

Dates: 27 October 2014 (workshops), 28—30 October 2014 (main conference)

Website: www.sastat.org.za/sasa2014

Email [email protected] for enquiries.

Invited speakers:

Professor Ivette Gomes, University of Lisbon

Professor Simos Meintanis, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens

Prizes will be awarded for the best posters at Honours and Masters level, and the best oral presentation at the PhD level.


Chapter news

The first SASA Gauteng Chapter meeting was held on July 24 2014 at the CSIR, Pretoria. In all

17 members participated, with two last minute apologies. The format of the meeting was in two parts - part one was an interactive discussion regarding the aims and scope of the Gauteng chapter; while in the second part Prof A. Kijko from UP Natural Hazard Centre presented a very fascinating talk.

In the beginning the Chair (Sonali) welcomed the attendees and all attendees introduced themselves. Then the Chair gave feedback on some of the suggestions members had sent for what their expectations are from this chapter. It was agreed

to have two chapter meetings each year, in July and February, in the week just before universities open so that most academicians can attend. The Chair also gave the group some feedback from her interaction with the CoE for Mathematical and Statistical Sciences that is hosted at Wits. Members discussed that it will be useful to target younger statisticians and actuaries in Gauteng to attend the meetings so that they can interact more informally with professional statisticians, as well as if required, receive some sort of mentorship. Some members suggested that one can make the meetings more attractive by including more practical aspects of statistics such as visiting some experimental

farms at the ARC. The aspect of the chapter having more presence on social media was put forth, and it was agreed that SASA EC will make a call on it. It was also agreed that efforts will be made to make SASA membership more attractive and inclusive, including other society members in the Gauteng catchment. In the second part of the chapter meeting, Prof Kijko presented a talk on issues related to research in different environments, industry expectations, etc with regards to working at the natural hazard center. The meeting ended with members having refreshments in the form of a light meal, and more informal discussions. In all, it was a successful inaugural meeting. g

Report from Gauteng Chapter

Attendees at the first SASA Gauteng chapter meeting Prof A. Kijko from UP Natural Hazard Centre giving a talk


News from the Education Committee

Winners of the 2013/2014 SASA Student Project Competition Sponsored by SAS®

It is the SASA Education Committee’s pleasure to announce the winners of the

2013/2014 SASA Honours project competition.

We received sixteen honours projects from six universities this year. Thank you to the Universities of Cape Town, Free State, Kwa-Zulu Natal and Pretoria as well as Rhodes and Wits for their entries. Well done to for following entries:

HONOURS PROJECTS

First PrizeMr Cornu CampherPoint-in-Time–Through-the-CycleDualCalibration(Wits) (R6300)

Second Prize

Ms Melinda Ross

Phylogeographic Analysis of theInfluenzaAVirusinAfrica

(UCT) (R4200)

Third Prize

Mr Lionel Kemba

Modelingfinancialdatausingthegeneralized hyperbolic distribu-tionwithanapplication to SouthAfricanexchangerates

(UKZN) (R3150)

In fourth place there was OnReducingtheNumberofParametersin a Hidden Markov Model by Mr Thomas Rooney (UCT).

The SASA Education Committee is grateful to the following judges for their time and effort: Dr Legesse Debusho (UP), Dr Carl Lombard (MRC), Dr Henri Moolman (retired from UKZN), Dr Shaun Ramroop (UKZN) and Dr Danie Venter (NMMU).

The judges commented on the excellent standard of the projects making it difficult to rank them, in particular the top projects. It was also noted that there was good variety of topics. We’d like to extend a special word of thanks to SAS for their continued support of this competition. g

Congratulations to all the winners!

SASA 2nd Year Scholarship and

Bursary Information

HoD’s and academics, please inform potential students about the SASA scholarship and bursaries.

Students (studying statistics) who will commence their third year studies at any South African university in January/February 2015 are eligible for the awards. Application forms are available on the SASA website. Potential students must complete the form in its entirety; any omissions and the forms are viewed as incomplete and hence not considered. The form must then be returned by the academic referee (not the applicant) to Mr WJ Brettenny, Department of Statistics, PO Box 77000, NMMU, Port Elizabeth, 6031. All applications must reach Mr Brettenny no later than 31 December 2014. Applications received thereafterwillnotbeconsidered. A maximum of three awards will be made.

For additional information contact Mr WJ Brettenny ([email protected]). g

2nd year Scholarship recipient Brett Coraizin at UWC



News from the Education Committee

This year Emma Plumstead (bursary recipient from NMMU) and Sabelo Mokoena (bursary recipient from UKZN) received awards. Each provided some comments (edited) on their experience of statistics and their plans for the future.

Emma PlumsteadIamcurrentlyinmy3rdyearofaBScComputerSciencedegreewithmathematical statistics as one ofmy majors along with computerscienceatNMMU.Throughoutmy3yearsof studying, Ihave learnta lot about using statistics inmany situations, like performing

regressionanalysisonagivensetof data, which was a 2nd yearmodulethatItookandIthoroughlyenjoyed it. I really enjoyeddoing statistics throughout mydegree and I hope to continuestudyingwithanHonoursdegreein statistics next year. I am notsure what my future holds, butwiththebursaryfromSASA,Icanachievemore than I couldbeforeandIamverythankful.

Sabelo MokoenaIamhonoredtobeaSASAbursaryholder. My achievement in theSASA Bursary program gave me

confidence to stay focused andworkhard.Ihaveseenthattherearegreateropportunitieswaitingfor me out there if I only workhard and achieve good results.I’mcopinganddoingverywell inmy third year. I enjoy third yearstatistics a lot, it is interestingand manageable. My particularinterest and futureplans is todomy BSc Honours in Statistics orFinancial Mathematics since Iwould love tobecomea financialanalyst in years to come. I thankGod for everything and hopethat some students will learnsomethingfromme.g

Feedback from Bursary/Scholarship Recipients

2nd year bursary recipient Emma Plumstead (centre) with HOD Gary Sharp (left) and lecturer Chantelle Clohessy (right) at NMMU.

HoD’s and academics, please inform current third year students about the scholarship (based on merit) and bursaries (merit and need) sponsored by SASA, SAS and ICCSSA.

Students who are planning to enrol for an honours degree in statistics in 2015 at any South African university are eligible for the awards. Entries open in September and application forms will be available from the SASA website.

Third Year Scholarship and Bursary Announcement

Congratulations!


South African Statisticians well represented at ICOTS9!!!

The ICOTS conferences are held once every 4 years and present an opportunity for

Statistics Educators from around the world to network, share and benchmark their skills at the highest level. The 9th ICOTS conference was recently held in Flagstaff (Arizona, USA), from 13-18 July 2014.

The strong presence of South African Statisticians from around the county attended ICOTS9, a clear indicator that Statistics Education is alive and well in South Africa!

Some comments from the South African delegates who braved the distance to attend the conference were:

Lizelle Fletcher (UP)I enjoyed not only meeting new people, but reconnecting with colleagues I already knew. ICOTS reminded me once again that the problems we face in South Africa are not unique, driving home the importance of collaboration, communication, and being aware of what statistics education colleagues around the world are doing. The excursion to one of the seven natural wonders of the world was a highlight - the Grand Canyon experience exceeded my highest expectations!

Ivona Contardo-Berning and Tom Berning (US)I enjoyed the relaxed environment at the conference with extra time created to chat with fellow delegates. I went with the purpose

of seeing what other people are doing with similar courses. Many of the presenters shared some interesting ideas which we would be able to incorporate in our course with relative ease in the near future. I was particularly impressed with how open presenters were with sharing their ideas and resources.

Gary Sharp (NMMU)This was my first ever ICOTS conference and based on my interaction with fellow presenters and the level of papers that were delivered, I have vowed to make every effort to attend the ICOTS10 conference planned for Japan. The conference also provided an opportunity to see the Grand Canyon, a visual experience that one would never be able to justify in words alone.

Warren Brettenny (NMMU)As my first international conference outside the borders of South Africa, ICOTS9 was truly amazing. Flagstaff was beautiful and the passion for statistics education amongst the delegates was overwhelming. It was an eye-opening experience for me. To see the new technology and procedures used in the classroom environment as well as the potential for research in the education field was both motivating and thought provoking. Count me in for ICOTS10!!!

Temesgen Zewotir (UKZN)This was my second ICOTS conference – the opportunity to interact with world leaders in statistics education research cannot be down played. It is excellent for any statistics educator. The

From Left: Tim Low (UCT); Lizelle Fletcher (UP); Gary Sharp (NMMU); Warren Brettenny (NMMU)


best part for me was the IPUMS workshop which will definitely give a new dimension to our sample survey modules.

Delia North (UKZN)I have been to ICOTS6 (South Africa), ICOTS7 (Brazil), ICOTS8 (Slovenia) and ICOTS9 (USA) and can honestly say that I have enjoyed each one more than the previous one! What can be more enjoyable than reflecting on teaching practices and content of Statistics modules, in a supportive nurturing environment? It immediately strikes one that everyone at ICOTS is so willing to assist others, to share materials and experiences. The reason is obvious…this is a gathering of SERIOUS teachers of Statistics. If you love teaching and want to improve your statistics teaching or start conducting research into teaching of statistics then don’t miss ICOTS10 in Japan!!!

It was particularly wonderful to see our own Prof Tim Dunne (UCT), holding up the SA flag as ICOTS9 Chair of the Programming Committee.

Tim Low (UCT)Having to travel so far, I took the opportunity to attend the R-Studio workshops on the weekend before the conference started. Not only did I find R a fantastic way to think about teaching undergraduate students doing a service course in statistics but it was the perfect ice-breaker to meet other academics

who were going to attend ICOTS 9. The ICOTS conference itself was a well-attended event with approximately 600 participants. Having never been encouraged to attend or even to join the South African Statistical Association it was a fantastic opportunity to meet some of the major players in the field of Statistical Education in South Africa as approximately 12 had made the long journey. ICOTS9 was a very beneficial trip, that has excited me to bring new ideas to my teaching, with the hope of introducing R-Studio, I plan to investigate how home languages of our students can be brought more into the learning of statistics and finally I am going to liaise more with local colleagues at other institutions around SA and also at overseas Universities. Thanks to the World

Bank and the Institute of Applied Statistics I was able to reduce the cost of attending ICOTS 9 by 2/3rds.

Tim Dunne (UCT)What impressed me was the complete rethinking about applied statistics courses being brought about by Big Data and Open Data in the modern world. The cross-disciplinary approaches emerge with new initiatives for primary and secondary schools. I found that simulation still enjoys some currency in education research, and also that R is being developed not only for advanced research, but increasingly there are efforts such as R-studio to render template forms for commands that require much less programming sophistication. There were several reports of R use in year 1 courses. g

From Left: Delia North (UKZN); Temesgen Zewotir (UKZN); Tim Dunne (UCT); Lizelle Fletcher (UP)

Wed afternoon during ICOTS is also sightseeing …a “rofie ride” in a jeep in Sedona was a popular option amongst ICOTS9 guests


The 3rd Institute for Certificated and Chartered Statisticians of South Africa (ICCSSA)

convention was held on the 2nd to 4th July 2014 at the Durban Jewish Center, in Durban. The convention was attended by people from various organisations such as Science Councils, Government departments, Industry and Academia.

This year ICCSSA collaborated with the National Forecasting Conference, which is usually hosted by the Center of Expertise in Forecasting (CoEF), headed by Professor Igor Litvine, who is also an ICCSSA Board Member.

The issue of being registered and recognised as a professional statistician is no longer a small talk by the board of ICCSSA as it may have seemed in the early days of its inception. In the past year ICCSSA has managed to get buy-in from industry and was registered and recognised as a professional body by the South

African Qualifications Association (SAQA). This recognition constitutes an enormous development in the statistical fraternity.

In his address at the 3rd ICCSSA convention Mr. Peter Bosch, South African Qualification Association (SAQA) stated that they are now working together with the departments of Labour and Education to make sure that anyone who is a practicing statistician in the country must be registered with ICCSSA as a Chartered or Certificated statistician, and also that the universities offering courses in statistics are accredited by ICCSSA. These kinds of developments are leading us to achieving one of the goals set by the then Minister in the Presidency responsible for National

Planning Commission Trevor Manuel at the launch of ICCSSA on the 11 June 2011, that the country needs tomes of accredited and relevant statistics in order to provide the country with better informed evidence. Indeed the time has come for Statisticians to be fully recognised and accredited.

Dr Pravesh Debba, chairman of ICCSSA stated that the purpose of organisations like ICCSSA is to protect our profession. Dr Debba also added that with government departments moving towards consulting only with those registered with a professional body, it would soon become a requirement for every individual to be professionally registered. ICCSSA should also position itself to be a catalyst to

Dr Pravesh Debba (Chairman of ICCSSA) handing the ICCSSA Charter to Mr. Pali Lehohla (Statistician General)

(Left) Dr Pravesh Debba (Chairman of ICCSSA), Dr Vince Micali (former Chairman of ICCSSA), Dineo Ratlhagana (Board Secretariat), and Dr Rolf Becker (Director and Chairman of SACNASP)

ICCSSA Convention


Thought Leader

Dr Vince Micali (Eskom) and Peter Bosch (SAQA) Dr Pravesh Debba (Chairman of ICCSSA) handing over the Charter to Dineo Ratlhagana (Board Secretariat)

Call for Conference Host 2015Any institution wishing to host the annual SASA conference in 2015 should please contant the secretary of the Executive Committee by 15 October 2015.

Call for nominations for visitors for the 2015 ConferenceAny SASA member wishing to nominate an overseas visitor for the 2015 SASA Conference, please contact the secretary of the Executive Committee by 15 October 2015.

The contact details for the secretary are:Dr Inger Fabris-RotelliDepartment of StatisticsOffice IT 6-25University of PretoriaHatfield, 0083Fax (012) 420 [email protected]

bring government departments, industry, science councils and academia together and use events like the ICCSSA convention to do so. This would be an objective for the next convention of ICCSSA.

Mr. Pali Lehohla attended and gave a plenary at the convention, emphasizing on the importance of statistics and how it relates to our everyday life. The board of ICCSSA honoured Mr. Lehohla with the ICCSSA charter, for the role he has played in the inception and operation of ICCSSA.

Two more charters were also granted to two of the ICCSSA board members for their hard work and dedication to ICCSSA, Ms. Valentine Litvine (Financial Director) and Ms. Dineo Ratlhagana (Board Secretariat).

The new board members have been elected for the next three years, with Dr Pravesh Debba as the new Chairman taking over from Dr Vince Micali who has been the Chairman of ICCSSA since its inception and Ms. Yoko Chhana as the new Chief Executive Officer, taking over from

Dr Pravesh Debba. ICCSSA is also welcoming two new members to the board, Dr Miranda Mafafo (StatsSA) and Ms. Vanessa Ndlovu (Eskom).

From the ICCSSA office, we would like to wish the new board all the best for their tenure.

For more information about ICCSSA, kindly contact our administration officer Ms. Liesl Morey at [email protected]



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