Policy formulation and evaluation

Combining society, economy and environment

-A Green Economy Perspective

Dr. Andrea M. Bassi

Deputy Director, Millennium InstituteJohannesburg, May 2010

Millennium Institute

• Established in 1983, MI is a not for profit organization based in Arlington VA, USA.

• Our goals are:– To develop and disseminate advanced analytical

tools to support strategic planning on critical issues;– To build capacity in countries to use our tools to

help address critical issues;– To develop a network of partners to inspire, endow,

and implement more integrated planning towards a sustainable future.

Green economy and municipalities

- Green economy definition:- Resource efficiency- Low carbon development- Economic growth and job creation

- Municipalities as entities embedded in a broader context:- Drivers of innovation- Dependent/impacted by national policies

Coherent Planning

r e d u c e d v u l n e r a b i l i t y t o t h e

m a r k e t a n d c l i m a t e c h a n g e

d i v e r s i f i c a t i o n

c r e a t i o n o f

s y n e r g i e s

c o h e r e n t

p l a n n i n g

c r e a t i o n o f a n i c h e

o f e x c e l l e n c e

m o n i t o r i n g a n d

e v a l u a t i o n

f o r m u l a t i o n

o f p o l i c i e s

e x t e n d t h e b a s i s

f o r c o o p e r a t i o n

Clean energy options…Clean energy options…

c l e a n e n e r g y

o p t i o n s

w i n d

s o l a r

b i o f u e l s

w a s t e

r e c y c l e

h y d r o g e n

… … create positive effects…create positive effects…

i n t e l l e c t u a l c a p i t a l

i n d u s t r y

c l e a n e n e r g y

o p t i o n s

w i n d

s o l a r

b i o f u e l s

w a s t e

r e c y c l e

h y d r o g e n

e m p l o y m e n t

… … on the drivers of economic on the drivers of economic growth…growth…

e c o n o m i c g r o w t h

i n t e l l e c t u a l c a p i t a l

i n d u s t r y

c l e a n e n e r g y

o p t i o n s

w i n d

s o l a r

b i o f u e l s

w a s t e

r e c y c l e

h y d r o g e n

e m p l o y m e n t

… … but require to retain talents…but require to retain talents…

e c o n o m i c

g r o w t h

i n t e l l e c t u a l c a p i t a l

i n d u s t r y

c l e a n e n e r g y

o p t i o n s

e d u c a t i o n

e x p e n d i t u r e

w i n d

s o l a r

b i o f u e l s

w a s t e

r e c y c l e

h y d r o g e n

e m p l o y m e n t

… … while stimulating investment…while stimulating investment…

e c o n o m i c

g r o w t h

i n t e l l e c t u a l c a p i t a l

i n d u s t r y

c l e a n e n e r g y

o p t i o n s

e d u c a t i o n

e x p e n d i t u r e

p r i v a t e

i n v e s t m e n t

w i n d

s o l a r

b i o f u e l s

w a s t e

r e c y c l e

h y d r o g e n

e m p l o y m e n t

… … for industry and tourism, for industry and tourism, among others…among others…

e c o n o m i c

g r o w t h

i n t e l l e c t u a l c a p i t a l

i n d u s t r y

c l e a n e n e r g y

o p t i o n s

e d u c a t i o n

e x p e n d i t u r e

p r i v a t e

i n v e s t m e n t

t o u r i s m

w i n d

s o l a r

b i o f u e l s

w a s t e

r e c y c l e

h y d r o g e n

e m p l o y m e n t

… … adding commercial services…adding commercial services…

e c o n o m i c

g r o w t h

i n t e l l e c t u a l c a p i t a l

i n d u s t r y

c l e a n e n e r g y

o p t i o n s

e d u c a t i o n

e x p e n d i t u r e

p r i v a t e

i n v e s t m e n t

t o u r i s m

c o m m e r c i a l

a c t i v i t y

w i n d

s o l a r

b i o f u e l s

w a s t e

r e c y c l e

h y d r o g e n

e m p l o y m e n t

… … to finally result in to finally result in demographic changes…demographic changes…

e c o n o m i c

g r o w t h

i n t e l l e c t u a l c a p i t a l

i n d u s t r y

c l e a n e n e r g y

o p t i o n s

e d u c a t i o n

e x p e n d i t u r e

p r i v a t e

i n v e s t m e n t

t o u r i s m

c o m m e r c i a l

a c t i v i t y

w i n d

s o l a r

b i o f u e l s

w a s t e

r e c y c l e

h y d r o g e n

e m p l o y m e n t

p o p u l a t i o n

… … and higher needs to and higher needs to sustain economic growth… sustain economic growth…

e c o n o m i c

g r o w t h

i n t e l l e c t u a l c a p i t a l

i n d u s t r y

c l e a n e n e r g y

o p t i o n s

e d u c a t i o n

e x p e n d i t u r e

p r i v a t e

i n v e s t m e n t

t o u r i s m

c o m m e r c i a l

a c t i v i t y

w i n d

s o l a r

b i o f u e l s

w a s t e

r e c y c l e

h y d r o g e n

e m p l o y m e n t

w a t e r

e n e r g y

r o a d s

s c h o o l s

h e a l t h c a r e

b a n k s

h o u s i n g

p o p u l a t i o n

… … and Profit from Coherent and Profit from Coherent Long Term Planning!Long Term Planning!

e c o n o m i c

g r o w t h

i n t e l l e c t u a l c a p i t a l

i n d u s t r y

c l e a n e n e r g y

o p t i o n s

e d u c a t i o n

e x p e n d i t u r e

p r i v a t e

i n v e s t m e n t

t o u r i s m

c o m m e r c i a l

a c t i v i t y

w i n d

s o l a r

b i o f u e l s

w a s t e

r e c y c l e

h y d r o g e n

e m p l o y m e n t

w a t e r

e n e r g y

r o a d s

s c h o o l s

h e a l t h c a r e

b a n k s

h o u s i n g

p o p u l a t i o n

Key lessons

• Long term approach;

• Integrated (cross-sectoral) policy assessment;

• Reaching goals becomes more and more challenging (e.g. productivity and growth);

• Seek synergies, avoid roadblocks.

Why Take a Systemic View?

To Avoid Unexpected Results!

Architecture

18

Energy Interdependencies

education

health

population

infrastructure

labor

poverty

production

government

investment

row

households

technology

climatechange

minerals

emissions

landsustainabi

lity

water

energy

Integrated long term policy

• An example, transport:– Bus rapid transit, light rail, metro rail, bike paths

and pedestrian walkways result in:• Reduced congestion (not green congestion), lower

maintenance and operation costs of the transport network.

• Lower pollution and health costs.

• Add synergies with water, energy and waste– E.g. higher density areas, following transit oriented

development, reduce capital cost and increase productivity.

Integrated long term policy (2)

• A second example, jobs:– Tradeoffs exist (e.g. renewables vs. coal)– Opportunities are many (e.g. energy efficiency)

• Seek coherent strategies:– Manufacturing renewable energy technologies

creates a high number of additional jobs;– Distributing and installing them offsets potential

losses.

Policy goals and implementation

• Risk management: objectives and costs– Public initiative (e.g. mandates)

• Predictable cost for both public and private sector;

• Cost can be shared, result assured.

– Public stimulus (e.g. subsidies)• Unpredictable cost (unless a cap is defined);

• Cost is shared, but progress is uncertain.

Conclusions

• Combine sectoral proposals and studies into an integrated framework of analysis– Share knowledge, focus on synergies;

• Incorporate and quantify social, economic and environmental dimensions of the municipal context– Prioritization through feedback analysis;

• Take a longer term perspective: productivity and efficiency are good ways to reach a higher quality of life in cities– Long term perspective.

Thank you for your attention

For more information please contactab@millennium-institute.org

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www.millennium-institute.org