our changing denver region - drcog · our changing denver region drcog idea exchange ... fant r...

Our Changing Denver Region

DRCOG Idea Exchange - 13 December 2016

1.

What is Shift Research Lab?2.

Our Changing Region Project3.

Chapter 2: Jobs/Housing Preview4.

Points for Reflection

O u t l i n e

3

OUR HISTORY

Who We Are

3

1991

The Data Initiative is

founded as an

operating program of

The Piton Foundation.

1995

DI is a founding

member of the

National Neighborhood

Indicators Partnership.

2004

DI launches Community

& School Facts.

2012

DI partners on the

Denver Regional Equity

Atlas, Shared Indicators

Project, Floodlight and

Data Engine.

2015

DI expands its footprint

to the Denver metro

region with the launch

of the updated Community

Facts tools, which covers all

seven counties.

1998

DI launches

Neighborhood Facts

1.0.

2008

DI co-publishes the

“Leaving to Learn”

series with Rocky

Mountain News.

2014

DI co-launches the Denver

Regional Equity Atlas 2.0 &

co-publishes housing

affordability research with

Colorado State University.

2016

DI rebrands to Shift

Research Lab.

4

WHAT WE DO

Lines of Service

4

OPEN DATA TOOLS RESEARCHCOMMUNITY

ASSESSMENTCAPACITY BUILDING

5

ECONOMIC DISPARITY – THE REAL STORY OF GROWTH

Project Background

5

POVERTY & RACE

70% of job growth by 2023 will be in

occupations with entry pay less than $36k

Less Poverty More Poverty = > 50% Non-white

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Wages Rent

Real

Do

llars

Wages vs. Rent Growth ('09 - '14)

Sources: 2014 ACS 5 year estimates, Regional Transportation District, Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, Apartment Association of Metro Denver Multifamily Survey

ProjectBackground

DEMOGRAPHICS | JOBS & HOUSING | EDUCATION

6

The data to test the hypothesis:

Low-income families are struggling to fully

participate in the post-2009 economic

recovery, and are experiencing displacement

due to growth pressures.

HOW ARE COMMUNITIES ACROSS

METRO DENVER EVOLVING?

Chapter 1Demographics

TOTAL POPULATION | AGE | HOUSEHOLD TYPES | RACE/ETHNICITY | MOBILITY

7

TOTAL POPULATION: 2.9 MILLION

Under 18:

696K

ETHNIC POPULATION

White, Non-Hispanic:

1.9MHispanic or Latino:

639K

Black or African American:

144KAsian:

110KOver 65:

315KHOUSEHOLDS: 1.12 MILLION

Households w/Children:

367KSource: 2009-2014 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates

8

DEMOGRAPHICS: KEY FINDINGS

Region Population Growth (2005 – 2014)

16% Overall

People per annum

Households per day

48,000

50

or

or

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Annual Growth

Growth Rate

Region Growth Rate

Source: Colorado State Demography Office

Chapter 2Jobs | Housing

OCCUPATIONS, INCOME, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, HOUSING

INVENTORY AND CHARACTERISTICS, GENTRIFICATION

9

COMING SOON

Total Jobs:

1.55M

ECONOMIC PROFILE

Median Income:

$77,800Educational Attainment (Bachelors or Higher):

42%

$998 Denver | $1,149 Boulder

Median Value:

$253K Denver | $358K Boulder

Jobs paying under $36K*:

325K

Median Rent:

398K

HOUSING INVENTORY: 1.22M

Housing Cost Burdened:

Sources: 2009-2014 ACS 5-year Estimates (Boulder & Denver-Aurora-Lakewood MSAs), Colorado Department of Labor and Employment | *OES Occupations mean income

10

JOBS | HOUSING: PRELIMINARY FINDINGS

Housing vs. Household Growth

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Households

Housing Units

Housing Units

per Day

30

Source: Colorado State Demography Office

11


Share of Jobs Supporting Housing Price in 2001 & 2015

Low interest rates

and property tax

relief have given

households

increased borrowing

capacity…

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

2001 share of jobs 2015 share of jobs

Source: Analyst calculation from Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Employment Statistics data

12


Housing for Working Occupations

12

Janitors NursesTeachers

…we lack the inventory at the levels affordable to households

working in a large share of the region’s occupations.

Sources: Analyst calculation from Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Employment Statistics data, and County assessment records

13


Gentrification Pressures

Who Bears the Burden?

The communities that qualify for

being at risk of gentrification:

1. Majority of the Census tract

earning <60% of the region’s

area median income (AMI).

2. In 2009 it was $ 45,600, or

326K households

3. In 2014 it was $46,680, or

268K households, with 114K

households in gentrifying

areas.

Source: Analyst calculation from 2005-2009 and 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates

14

EDUCATION: PRELIMINARY FINDINGS

Change in Free & Reduced Lunch ParticipationFamily Economics

The increase in free and

reduced lunch program

participation in the suburban

areas is influenced by two

primary factors:

1. Family income not keeping

pace with essential expenses,

and

2. Movement of low-income

families to more affordable

communities.

Source: Colorado Department of Education

15


Rent Cost Burdened Picture (<$50k)

2009 2014

158K Households 185K Households

Urban 13%

Suburban 20%

vs

Housing Cost-Burdened

Any household that spends

more than 30% of its income on

housing.

Source: 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates

16


Regional Crowded-Out Household Spending

16

Additional dollars spent on housing that could otherwise go

to taxable-based goods.

$1.16 Billion

Source: Analyst calculation from 2010-2014 American Community Survey Estimates and 2013/2014 Consumer Expenditure Survey data

17

POINTS FOR REFLECTION

Key Upstream Drivers of Housing Price Pressures

17

The increase in housing prices is the result of multiple levers in the

larger economic and policy environment, including:

1. Construction costs (vertical)

2. Construction defects

3. Local development/building process

4. Local land use regulations

5. Land development costs

6. Building to economic development announcements

7. Rent control

Thank YouJennifer Newcomer

[email protected]

Dr. Phyllis Resnick

[email protected]

www.shiftresearchlab.org


19

Age Profile & Growth 2014

Age Composition

2009-2014

Fewer Children Under 512,600

-6.2%

3.5%6.9%

1.9%

11.0%

22.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

Under 5 Under 18 18 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 64 Over 65

7-County Region: Age Profile

2009

2014

Cohort Growth 2009-2014


20

Household Type Distribution 2014

Household Characteristics

2009-2014

Average Household Size2.50 2.492005 2014

80% Growth was in households without children

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

MarriedCouplew/Child

SingleParent

Family w/oChild

LivingAlone

Not LivingAlone

2009

2014

Growth Share

80%Growth in households with children were

headed by single parents &

4 in 10 of those were single fathers


21

Race | Ethnicity Change 2009 - 2014

Race & Ethnicity

2014

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Gro

wth

Gro

up

Sh

are

2009

2014

Group Growth


22

Mobility

2014

Black or African

American:

Different County 1

Year Ago

19% 14%

WhiteBlack or Hispanic

Overall, mobility rates between 2009 and

2014 remained flat, but Black and Hispanic

populations consistently have higher inter-

regional mobility rates.

Hispanic or Latino:

Different County 1

Year Ago


23Gentrification (2009-2014)

Signs of Displacement?

Race/Ethnic Plurality 2009 Race/Ethnic Plurality 2014

Transit Type

Frequent Bus

Light Rail

Future Transit Lines

Gentrifying 2014

NA Black or African American Plurality

35%

36% - 45%

46%

47% - 51%

52% - 53%

Hispanic or Latino Plurality

33% - 43%

44% - 56%

57% - 65%

66% - 74%

75% - 85%

White Alone Plurality

34% - 58%

59% - 71%

72% - 81%

82% - 88%

89% - 99%


24

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

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Share of Jobs (by Occupation) with Median Wage Above and Below Median SSS Wage by Family Type, 2015

Share below Share above

Share of jobs statewide

supporting the median self-

sufficiency standard fell from

65% in 2001 to 56% in 2015


25

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

Doctoral orprofessional degree

Bachelor's degree Master's degree Associate's degree Postsecondarynondegree award

High school diploma orequivalent

Some college, nodegree

No formal educationalcredential

Number of Jobs by Educational Attainment, 2015


26

$-

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Family Types, by SSS, Supported by Median Wage of "No Education" Job

Average SSS Median Wage - "No Eduation" job

“No Education”

jobs only support

19 family types

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