observations chernobyl

30 Summer2010 21st Century Science & Technology

TendaysaftertwosteamandhydrogenexplosionsblewuptheChernobylnuclearreactor,thefirethatmelteditscorediedoutspontaneously.Butthedramaofthiscatastrophestillflourishes,nourishedbypolitics,authorities,media,andinterestgroupsofecologists,charitableorganizations,andscientists.Itlivesinthecollectivememoryoftheworldandpropagatesrealhealth,social,andeco-nomicharmtomillionsofpeopleinBe-larus,Russia,andtheUkraine.Itisex-ploited in attempts to strangle thedevelopment of atomic energy, thecleanest, safest, and practically inex-haustiblemeanstomeettheworld'sen-ergy needs. The worlds uranium re-sources alonewill suffice for thenext470,000years(IAEA2008).Chernobyl was indeed an historic

event;itistheonlynuclearpowersta-tiondisasterthateverresultedinanoc-cupationaldeathtoll,albeitacompara-

tively small one. A vast environmental dispersion ofradioactivityoccurredthatdidnotcauseanyscientificallycon-firmedfatalitiesinthegeneralpopulation.Theworstharmtothepopulationwascausednotbyradiation,andnottoflesh,

buttominds.This catastrophe providedmany in-

valuablelessons.Oneofthemisarec-ognitionoftheabsurdityoftheprevail-ing linear no-threshold hypothesis(LNT),which assumes that evennear-zeroradiationdosagecanleadtocan-cerdeathandhereditarydisorders.ThattheLNTisfalse,isshownbyobservingthat such damage did not occur afterChernobyl. Chernobyl was the worst possible

catastrophe. It happened in a danger-ouslyconstructednuclearpowerreac-torwith a totalmeltdownof the coreand10daysoffreeemissionofradionu-clides into the atmosphere. Probably

Vadim Mouchkin/IAEA

AerialviewoftheChernobylnuclearpowerplantencasedinitssarcophagus.

Observations on ChernobylAfter 25 Years of Radiophobia

byZbigniewJaworowski,M.D.,Ph.D.,D.Sc.

The worst possible nuclear plant accident produced no scientifically confirmed fatalities in the general population. But there was enormous political and psychological damage, mainly the result of belief in the lie that any amount of radiation is bad.

21st Century Science & Technology Summer2010 31

nothingworsecouldhappen.Yet,theresultinghumanlosses,althoughtragic,wereminuteincomparisonwithcatastrophesfromotherener-gysources.Highlysensitivemonitoringsystemsthathad

beendevelopedinmanycountriesforthede-tectionoffalloutfromnuclearweaponsenabledeasydetectionofminuteamountsofChernobyldust,eveninremotecornersoftheworld.Thisaddedtoglobalepidemicsoffearinducedbytheaccident.Radioactivedebriswasdispersedintothetro-

posphere and stratosphere of the NorthernHemisphere.up toat least15kmaltitude (Ja-worowskiandKownacka1994).Onthefirstfewdaysaftertheaccident,theconcentrationsofradiocesiummeasuredatthisaltitudeoverPo-land(maximum36.1mBq/cubicmeteratstan-dardtemperatureandpressure,orSTP)was2to6percentofthatatthegroundlevel.Suchahighverticaldistributionandmixingenabledasmallportion of Chernobyl debris to pass over the

equatorialconvergenceand intotheSouthernHemisphere(Philip-pot 1990), and on to the SouthPole(Dibbetal.1990,Philippot1990).Thiswasnotinagreementwithcomputer-generatedmodelsofnuclearaccidents,whichpro-jectedamaximumupliftoffissionproducts to below3,000metersaltitude (ApSimon et al. 1985,ApSimonandWilson1987).Enormousamountsofradionu-

clides entered the air from theburning reactor. Yet the totalemissionwas200timeslessthanfromallofthe543nuclearwar-heads exploded in the atmo-sphere since 1945. The highestestimated radiation dose expo-sure to the average member oftheworldpopulationwas0.113mSv, recorded in 1963 (UN-SCEAR1988).Theradiationdos-esfromChernobyldustwereesti-matedandcomparedwithnaturaldoses by UNSCEAR (2000a).Duringthefirstyearaftertheac-cident,theaveragedosereceivedby an average inhabitant of theNorthern Hemisphere was esti-mated by UNSCEAR as 0.045mSv,thatis,lessthan2percentoftheaverageglobalannualnaturaldose(2.4mSvperyear).During thenext70years, the

global population will be ex-posedtoatotalChernobyldose

Ukrainian Society for Friendship and Cultrual Relations with Foreign CountriesAhelicopterattheChernobylsitein1986,checkingthedamagetothereactor.

Figure 1WORLDWIDE

RADIATION DOSES COMPARED WITH

CHERNOBYLAverageannualradiationdosesfromnaturalandman-madesources,worldwide,nearChernobyl,andinareasofhighnaturalradiation.TheradiationfromChernobylisdwarfedincompari-sonwithnaturalbackgoundradia-tion.Source: Based on UNSCEAR (1988, 1993, 1998, 2000b)


ofapproximately0.14mSv,or0.08percentofthenaturallife-timedoseof170mSv.PeoplelivinginthemostcontaminatedareasoftheformerSovietUnionreceivedanaverageindividualannualwhole-bodyradiationdosein1986-1995of0.9mSvinBelarus, 0.76mSv in Russia, and 1.4mSv inUkraine (UN-SCEAR2000b).Averagedosesestimatedfortheperiod1986-2005are2.4mSvinBelarus,1.1mSvinRussia,and1.2mSvinUkraine(UNSCEAR2008),respectively.Allthesedosesaredwarfedincomparisonwithnaturalradia-

tiondosesinsomepartsoftheworld.Forexample,inRamsar,Iran, natural radiation doses reachmore than 400mSv/year(Mortazawietal.2006),andinBrazilandsouthwesternFrance,naturalradiationdosesreachuptomorethan700mSvperyear(UNSCEAR2000b).(SeeFigure1.)Acomparisonofthesedosesandepidemiologicalobserva-

tionsshouldbeabasisofrealisticestimatesofthelatentmedi-calconsequencesoftheChernobylaccident,ratherthanriskfactorsbasedontheLNT.Suchacomparison,andthecom-parativelyminutehealthconsequences,wereapparentsoonaf-terthecatastrophe(Jaworowski1988),butthisinformationwasnotsharedwiththepublic.Recentlythewell-knownBritishen-vironmentalistJamesLovelock,bestknownforhisGaiatheory,dispelledatlengthalltheusualmythsthatsurroundtheCher-nobylaccident.Lovelockstatedthatformanyyearsthescien-tistswhocouldhavechallengedthenonsenseaboutthecatas-trophechosetokeepquiet(Murphy2009).Idonotfeelguilty.Noharmfulhealtheffectshaveeverbeendetectedinhigh

naturalbackgroundradiationareas.Thisisconsistentwithoth-erstudiesoftheincidenceofcancersinexposedpopulations.IntheUnitedStatesandinChina,forexample,theincidenceofcancerswasfoundtobelowerinregionswithhighnaturalra-diationthaninregionswithlownaturalradiation(Frigerioetal.1973,FrigerioandStowe1976,Wei1990).AmongBritishradi-ologistsexposedmainlytoX-rays,cancermortalitywasfoundtobelowerbyabout50percentthanthatintheaveragemalepopulationofEnglandandWales(Berringtonetal.2001).Also, inotherpopulationgroupsexposed to lowdosesof

ionizingradiation(i.e.,patientsdiagnosedwithiodine-131andX-rays,dialpainters,chemists,andothersexposedtoingestedorinhaledradiumorplutonium,personsexposedtohigherlev-elsofindoorradon,andA-bombsurvivors)alowerpercentageofneoplasticmalignancieswasobserved(Cohen2000,Luckey2003,UNSCEAR1994).ATaiwan studyof several thousandresidentsofapartmentscontaminatedwithcobalt-60,whohadbeenchronicallyexposedtogammarays forup to20years,withtotaldosesestimatedtorangefrom120to4,000mSv,re-vealedthatthecancermortalityandcongenitalmalformationsoftheseresidentssubstantiallydecreasedratherthanincreased(Chenetal.2004),suggestingastimulatingorhormeticeffectoflowdosesoflowlinear-energy-transfer(LET)ionizingradia-tion.Thisfindingwaspartiallyconfirmedbyalaterstudyoncan-

cerincidenceinasimilarTaiwancohort,inwhichforallcan-cers(exceptleukemiaandsolidcancers),withthenumberofcancercasesrangingfrom119to190,therewasadeficitofin-cidencefoundincomparisonwiththeunexposedpopulation.Ingroupsofalltypesofleukemiaandofsomesolidcancersofparticularorgans,thenumberofcaseswas1to2ordersofmag-nitudesmallerthaninthefirstthreegroups(Hwang2008).

About3,000reportsonradiationhormesiswererecentlyre-viewed (Luckey 2003). In one study, among approximately200,000American,British,andCanadiannuclearworkersex-posedtoradiation,thetotalcancerdeathsrangedfrom27per-cent to 72 percent of the total cancer deaths in the controlgroupofnon-nuclearworkers(Luckey2003).Suchanhormeticdeficit invalidates theLNT,because theconceptofhormesistranscendsanyhypothesizeddosethresholdforexcesscancers.Iftherewerenohormesis,theexistenceofatruethresholdforexcesscancersmightbeimpossibletodemonstraterigorously,because of the statistical problems of proving an absoluteequalityofeffectinanepidemiologicalstudyataverylowdoselevel.If,however,adeficitofcancersisobservedinthepopula-tion irradiatedata relatively lowdose level,as inhormesis,thereisoftenastatisticallysignificantdifferenceatanaccept-ableconfidencelevel(Webster1993).ThisremarkofWebster,anUNSCEARmember,reflectsdiscussionsintheCommitteeduringpreparationofitsreportonhormesis(UNSCEAR1994).Amore recent study, based on collective doses for about

400,000nuclearworkers,founda31percentdecreaseinrela-tivecancermortality(Cardisetal.2007),butneverthelesscon-cludedthatthesecancerdeathdatawereconsistentwiththeLNTrelationship.Thisconclusionwasbasedonanad hocac-ceptedassumptionofaconfoundinghealthyworkereffectforthe studiedcohort. Itwas assumed that thenuclearworkerswereselectedforemploymentbecausetheyweremorehealthy.However,theexistenceofthiseffectwasnotsupportedbytheirdataorbyanyotherfactualevidence.Thehealthyworkereffectcouldbecorrectlyassumedonly

ifthecancermarkerdiagnostics(ACS2009)andgenetictestswereusedinpre-employmentscreeningandselectionoftheseworkers.ButtheseprocedureswerenotappliedintheCardisetal.cohort,andevennowtheyarenotrecommendedbytheIn-

Environmentalists for Nuclear EnergyAnorangefromRamsar,Iran,theregionwithoneofthehighestnaturalbackgroundradiationlevelsintheworld.TheRamsarpopulationhaslowercancerratesthanthoseofotherareas.Noharmfulhealtheffectshaveeverbeendetectedinhighnaturalbackgroundradiationareas.


ternationalCommissiononRadiologicalProtection,thedirec-tivesof theEuropeanUnion,or the IAEA InternationalBasicSafetyStandards.Thus,thisassumptionisinvalidandexplainsnothing.Ontheotherhand,thestatisticalre-analysisofCardisetal.

data clearly documents that their assumption of a healthyworkereffectwasincorrect,andtheirdataindicatedthatlowdosesofionizingradiationinducedahormeticeffectintheex-posednuclearworkers(FornalskiandDobrzynski2009).

Chernobyl vs. Other Industrial AccidentsIntermsofhumanlosses(therewere31earlydeaths)theac-

cidentintheChernobylnuclearpowerplantwasaminoreventcomparedwithmanyothermajorindustrialcatastrophes.Inthe20thCentury,morethan10suchcatastropheshaveoccurred,withtensofthousandsoffatalitiesineach.Forexample,coalsmogkilledapproximately12,000peopleinLondon,betweenDecember1952andFebruary1953(BellandDavis2001).TheannualdeathtollfromaccidentsinChinesecoalminesreached70,000deathsinthe1950s,and10,000inthe1990s(WNA2009).In1984,about20,000peopleperishedafteranexplo-sioninapesticidefactoryinBhopal,India(DharaandDhara2002);andthecollapseofahydroelectricdamontheBanqiaoriverinChinain1975caused230,000fatalities(Altius2008,McCully1998,Yi1998).Theworlddoesnotcelebratetheanniversariesoftheseenor-

mousman-madedisasters,butyearafteryearwedosoforthehundredsandthousandsoftimeslessdeadlyChernobylacci-

dent.TenyearsagoIdiscussedthepossiblecausesofthispara-noiac phenomenon (Jaworowski 1999). Measured as earlydeathsperelectricityunitsproducedbytheChernobylfacility(nineyearsofoperation,totalelectricityproductionof36giga-wattsofelectricity(GWe),31earlydeaths)yields0.86deaths/GWe-year).Thisrateislowerthantheaveragefatalitiesfromamajorityofotherenergysources.Forexample, theChernobyl rate is9 times lower than the

deathratefromliquefiedgas(Hirschbergetal.1998)and47times lower than from hydroelectric stations (40.19 deaths/GWe-year including the Banqiao disaster). But the political,economic,social,andpsychologicalimpactofChernobylwasenormous.Letsexaminewhathappenedstartingwithmyper-sonalexperience.

Psychology Tuned by LNTAtabout9A.M.onMonday,April28,1986,attheentrance

tomyinstituteinWarsaw,Iwasgreetedbyacolleaguewhosaid:Look,at7:00wereceivedatelexfromamonitoringsta-tioninnorthernPolandsayingthatthebetaradioactivityoftheairthereis550,000timeshigherthanthedaybefore.Ifoundasimilarincreaseintheairfilterfromthestationinourbackyard,andthepavementhereishighlyradioactive.Thiswasaterribleshock.Myfirstthoughtwas,ANUCLEAR

WAR!Itiscuriousthatallmyattentionwasconcentratedonthisenormousriseoftotalbetaactivityintheairusedtomonitorra-diationemergenciesfromnucleartestfallout.ManyyearsspentduringtheColdWaronpreparationstodefendthePolishpopu-lationagainsttheeffectsofanuclearattackhadconditionedmycolleaguesandmetohavesuchanexaggeratedreaction.Wereactedthatwayalthoughweknew,thatonthisfirstday

ofChernobylinPoland,thedoserateofexternalgammaradia-tionpenetratingourbodieswashigheronlybya factorof3fromthedaybefore,anditwassimilartotheaveragenaturalradiationdoseswhichfromtimeimmemorialwehavereceivedfromgroundandcosmicradiation.At11A.M.,afterwehadcollected enough dust from the air for gamma spectrometrymeasurements,wediscovered that it contained cesium-134.Thus,weknewthatitssourcewasnotanatomicbomb,butanuclear reactor.Thiswas tranquilizingnews,whichdidnot,however,calmourfranticbehavior.In1986,theimpactofadramaticincreaseinatmospheric

radioactivity dominated my thinkingand everybody elses.Thisstateofmindledtoimmediateconsequences.Firsttherewerevarioushecticactions,suchasad hoccoiningofdifferentlimitsforradionuclidesinfood,water,andotherthings.Inpar-ticularcountries,theselimitsvariedbyafactorofmanythou-sands, reflectingvariouspoliticalandmercenary factorsandtheemotionalstatesofthedecisionmakers.Forexample,Swedenallowedfor30timesmoreradioactiv-

ityinimportedvegetablesthanindomesticones,andIsraelal-lowedlessradioactivityinfoodfromEasternEuropethanfromWesternEurope.Thecesium-137concentrationlimitinvegeta-blesimposedinthePhilippineswas22Bqperkg,8,600timeslowerthaninthemorepragmaticUnitedKingdom(SaloandDaglish1988).InPoland,agroupofnuclearphysicistsanden-gineersproposedacesium-137limitof27Bqin1kilogramforanykindoffood,but,fortunately,theauthoritiesdecidedmoresoberlyandimposeda1,000Bqlimit.

Animaginarysix-footchickenfromChernobyl,writtenupasnewsintheNationalEnquirerin1986.Otherproductsofhys-teria about Chernobyl radiation, including doctored photos,arestillincirculation.


Behind these restrictions, mean-inglessfromthepointofviewofhu-manhealth,stoodthree factors: (1)emotion; (2) the LNTmindset andthe international recommendationsbasedonit;and(3)asocialneedtofollowanoldmedicalrule,Ut aliquit fecisse videatur (tomake it appearthatsomethingisbeingdone).Thatthird factorwasaplacebousedbythe authorities to dodge the worstkindofcriticism,i.e.,accusationsofinactivityinthefaceofamonstrousdisaster.ThisledtoanoverreactioninEuropeandinsomeothercoun-tries, but at the greatest scale andwiththemostsevereconsequencesintheSovietUnion.

The High-Cost of HysteriaThecostsoftheseregulationswere

enormous.Forexample,Norwegianauthoritiesintroducedacesium-137concentration limit of 6,000 Bq/kgin reindeermeat and game, and a600Bq/kglimitforsheep(Henriksenand Saxebol 1988). A Norwegianeatsanaverageof0.6kgofreindeermeatperyear.Theaverageradiationdosefromeatingthisamountofmeatisestimatedtobeabout0.047mSvper year. Thus, this measure wasaimed toprotectNorwegiansagainst a radiationdoseabout200timeslowerthanthenaturaldoseinsomeregionsofNor-wayof11mSvperyear(UNSCEAR1982).Thecostsofthisprotectionclimbedtoover$70millionin

1986,andinthe1990sitwasstillabout$4millionperyear(Christensen1989,IdasandMyhre1994).Thismeansthatun-necessaryandwastefulrestrictions,onceimplementedundertheinfluenceoftheabovethreefactors,havealonglifetime.Thehystericalreactionofauthorities,furtherexcitedbyex-

tremelyexaggeratedmediareports,iswellexemplifiedbytheJapanesegovernmentscancellationofaseveral-hundred-mil-lion(inU.S.dollars)contractforshippingPolishbarleytoJapanfortheproductionofbeer.ThishappenedinMay1986,afewdaysaftercompletelyfalseinformationofextremecontamina-tionofPolandbyChernobylfalloutappearedonthefrontpageofthebiggestJapanesedaily,Asahi Shimbun.Itscreamedwithblockletters,DUSTOFDEATHINPOLAND,anditcitedmynameasthesourceoftheinformation.IwasaskedbythePolishgovernmenttowriteatextinEnglish

whichmightbeusedtoavertthislossofmoney.IdidthisduringaweekendspentwithmywifeinourcottageonthebanksoftheVistula,togetherwithJohnDavis,theAmericanambassadortoPoland, andhis charmingwife,Helene.When I finishedmywritingassignment, I asked John tocorrect the language.HesaidthattheEnglishwasalmostOK,butnotexactlyinproperdiplomaticstyle.Hethenproceededtochangethetextcom-pletely.

OnMondayaspokesmanforthecommunist government asked metoreadthetextathispressconfer-ence.Ipresentedthetalk,butafterIfinished,hedistributedcopiesofthetalktothewaitingflockofjournal-ists.Hewastotallyunawarethatthewritten text hadbeenpreparedbytheU.S.ambassador.AvisitbytheJapaneseambassadortoourCentralLaboratoryforRadiationProtectionmanagedtosalvagethecontract.Afewdayslater,AmbassadorDa-

vis arranged an international dealforshipmentbyairoflargequanti-ties of powdered milk for Polishchildren, to replenish strategic re-serves thatwere rapidly being de-pleted.This was not an easy task,becauseother Europeancountries,inasimilarpositiontoours,refusedtoselltheirmilk.Aswenowknow,during thenext fouryears theDa-vises played a delicate but pivotalroleinrealizingamajorgoalforthepeople of Poland, the Solidaritymovements victory over commu-nism (Davis 2009, Davis et al.2006).Asexplainedbelow,Solidar-itystriumphwasrelatedtotheCher-nobylaccident.

The Costly Folly of LNTAclassicexampleofwastefullyapplyingtheLNTprincipleto

theChernobylemergencywasprovidedbySwedishradiation-protectionauthorities.WhenthefarmersnearStockholmdis-covered that theChernobylaccidenthadcontaminated theircowsmilkwithcesium-137,abovethelimitof300Bqperliterimposedbyauthorities,theywrotetheauthoritiestoaskiftheirmilkcouldbedilutedwithuncontaminatedmilkfromotherre-gions,tobringitbelowthelimit.Thiswouldbedonebymixing1literofcontaminatedmilkwith10litersofcleanmilk.Tothefarmerssurpriseanddisappointment,theanswerwas

no,andthemilkwasthentobediscarded.Thiswasastrangerulingsinceithasalwaysbeenpossibletoreducepollutantstosaferlevelsbydilution.Wedothisforotherpollutantsinfood-stuffs,andwedilutefumesfromfireplacesorovenswithatmo-sphericairinthesamewaythatnaturedilutesvolcanicemis-sionsor forest fire fumes.TheSwedish authorities explainedthateventhoughtheindividualriskcouldbereducedbydilut-ingthemilk,thiswould,atthesametime,increasethenumberofconsumers.Thus,theriskwouldremainthesame,butnowspreadoveralargerpopulation(Walinder1995).Althoughridiculous,thiswasafaithfulapplicationoftheIn-

ternational Commission on Radiological Protection recom-mendations,basedontheLNTassumptionanditsoffspring,theconceptofcollectivedose;thatis,reachingterrifyinglylargenumbersofman-sievertsbymultiplyingtiny,innocuousindi-vidualradiationdosesbyalargenumberofexposedpeople.

Katarzyna Dopieralska-Skowronska

AuthorZbigniewJaworowski,speakinghereata2005geophysicalmeetinginWarsaw.


Inanearlierpaper,IexposedthenegativeconsequencesandlackofsenseintheLNTassumption,andthecollectivedoseanddose-commitmentconcepts(Jaworowski1999).Theappli-cationoftheseprincipleshascausedthecostsoftheChernobylaccident to exceed $100 billion inWestern Europe (Becker1996),andmuchmoreinpost-Sovietcountrieswhereithasledtountoldsufferingandthepauperizationofmillionsofpeople.Theinternationalinstitutionsstandingbehindthisassumptionandtheseconceptscertainlywillnotadmitresponsibilityfortheirdisastrousconsequences.Theyshould.

Some LNT HistoryThelinearno-thresholdhypothesiswasacceptedin1959by

theInternationalCommissiononRadiologicalProtection(ICRP1959) as the philosophical basis for radiological protection.Thisdecisionwasbasedonthefirstreportofthenewlyestab-lishedUnitedNationsScientificCommitteeon theEffectsofAtomicRadiation(UNSCEAR1958).Alargepartofthisreportwasdedicatedtoadiscussionoflinearityandofthethresholddoseforadverseradiationeffects.

Fiftyyearsago,UNSCEARsstandonthissubjectwasformedafteranin-depthdebatethatwasnotwithoutinfluencefromthepoliticalatmosphereandissuesofthetime.TheSoviet,Czecho-slovakian,andEgyptiandelegationstoUNSCEARstronglysup-portedtheLNTassumption,anduseditasabasisforrecom-mendationofanimmediatecessationofnucleartestexplosions.TheLNTwasalsosupportedby theSovietUnionduring thelateryearsof theColdWar (Jaworowski2009),and thiswasconsistentwiththethinkingofAmericanauthorities.Thetargettheoryprevailinginthe1950sandthethennewre-

sultsofgeneticexperimentswithfruitfliesirradiatedwithhighdosesanddoserates,stronglyinfluencedthisdebate.In1958,UNSCEARstatedthatcontaminationoftheenvironmentbynu-clearexplosionsincreasedradiationlevelsallovertheworldandthusposednewandunknownhazards forpresentand futuregenerations.Thesehazards,UNSCEARstated,cannotbecon-trolled,andeventhesmallestamountsofradiationareliabletocausedeleteriousgenetic,andperhapsalsosomatic,effects.This sentencehadanenormous impact in subsequentde-

cades, andhas been repeated in a plethora of publications.Eventoday,itistakenasanarticleoffaithbythepublic.How-ever,throughouttheentire1958report,theoriginalUNSCEARviewonLNTremainedambivalent.Asanexample,UNSCEARacceptedasathresholdforleukemiaadoseof4,000mSv(page42);butatthesametime,theCommitteeacceptedariskfactorfor leukemia of 0.52 percent per 1,000mSv, assuming LNT(page115).Thecommitteequiteopenlypresentedthisdifficul-ty,andshoweditsconsequencesinatable(page42).Continuation of nuclear weapons tests in the atmosphere

wasestimatedtocause60,000leukemiacasesworldwide,ifnothresholdwereassumed,andzeroleukemiacasesifathresholdof4,000mSvwereinplace.Initsfinalconclusions,UNSCEARpinpointedthisdilemma:Linearityhasbeenassumedprimar-ilyforpurposesofsimplicity,andTheremayormaynotbeathresholddose.Thetwopossibilitiesofthresholdandno-thresh-oldhavebeenretainedbecauseof theverygreatdifferencestheyengender.After ahalf-century,we still discuss the sameproblem. In

1958,UNSCEARhadnodoubtsaboutmajorgeneticdefectsintheworldpopulationthatcouldbecausedbynucleartestfall-out,andestimatedthemashighas40,000.Butlater,theCom-mitteelearnedthatevenamongthechildrenofhighlyirradiat-ed survivors of atomic bombings, no statistically significantgeneticdamagecouldbedemonstrated(UNSCEAR2001).However,intheInternationalCommissiononRadiological

Protectiondocumentof1959,nosuchcontroversyandnohes-itationsappeared.TheLNTwasarbitrarilyassumed,andseri-ous epistemological problems related to the impossibility offindingharmfuleffectsatverylowlevelsofradiationwereig-nored.Overtheyears,theworkingassumptionoftheInterna-tionalCommissionin1959cametoberegardedasascientifi-callydocumentedfactbythemassmedia,publicopinion,andevenmanyscientists.TheLNTassumption,however,isnotaprovenscientificprinciple,andbelongsintherealmofadmin-istration(Jaworowski2000).

LNT ad AbsurdumTheabsurdityoftheLNTwasbroughttolightin1987,when

minutedosesofChernobyl radiationwereused to calculate

Elisabeth Zeiller/IAEA

Alocalmarket,wherefoodsamplesweretakenforuseintheIAEAdietstudyoftheChernobylAssessmentProject.Thehys-teriaaroundtheaccidentandtheadherencetotheLNTthesisledtowidelyvaryingregulationsrestrictingfoodusethatcostEuropeannationsmillionsofdollars.


that53,000peoplewoulddieofChernobyl-induced cancers over the next 50 years(Goldman et al. 1987). This frighteningdeathtollcalculationwasderivedsimplybymultiplying the triflingChernobyldoses intheUnitedStates(0.0046mSvperperson)bythevastnumberofpeoplelivingintheNorthernHemisphere,andbyacancerriskfactorbasedonepidemiologicalstudiesof75,000atomicbombsurvivorsinJapan.But theA-bombsurvivordataareirrele-

vanttosuchestimatesbecauseofthediffer-enceintheindividualdosesanddoserates.A-bombsurvivorswereflashedwithinlessthan a second by radiation doses at least50,000timeshigherthananydosethatU.S.inhabitantswilleverreceiveoveraperiodof50yearsfromtheChernobylfallout.We have reliable epidemiological data

for adose rateofperhaps1,000or6,000mSvpersecondinJapaneseA-bombsurvi-vors.Buttherearenosuchdataforhumanexposureatadoserateof0.0045mSvover50 years, nor will there ever be any.ThedoserateinJapanwaslargerbyafactorofabout1012thantheChernobyldoserateintheUnitedStates.Extrapolatingoversuchavast span is neither scientifically justifiednor epistemologically acceptable. It is also morally suspect(Walinder1995).Indeed,LauristonTaylor,thelatepresidentoftheU.S.NationalCouncilonRadiologicalProtectionandMea-surements,deemedsuchextrapolationstobeadeeplyimmor-aluseofourscientificheritage(Taylor1980).Initsdocumentonprotectionofthepublicinamajorradia-

tionemergency,theInternationalCommissiononRadiologicalProtectionrecommendedtheadministrationofstableiodine,intheformoftabletstobetakenbefore,orassoonaspossibleaf-ter,thestartofexposuretoradioactiveiodine-131(ICRP1984).TheCommissionadvisedapplyingthisprophylacticmeasuretoeverybodypregnant women, neonates, young infants, andadultsstartingattheprojectedthyroiddoseof50mSv.ThisrecommendationwasbasedontheLNTdogma.WefolloweditinPoland.InthelateafternoonofApril28,1986,welearnedfromthe

BBCthattherewasareactoraccidentinChernobyl.Wehadseen the radioactivecloudflowingoverPoland fromeast towest,andwehadthefirstdataonconcentrationlevelsofradio-iodineingrassandsoilineasternPolandandinWarsaw.Usingthesedata,IcalculatedthatcontaminationofthyroidglandsofPolishchildrenmightreachalimitof50mSv,andmuchmoreifthesituationinChernobylandweatherconditionsfurtherag-gravatedthesituation.

Meaningless Administration of Stable IodineInourInstitutewehadnoinformationfromtheSovietUnion

onthecurrentstateofaffairsorofanyprojectionsregardingthebehaviorofthedestroyedreactor.Therefore,weassumedthatinthenextfewdaystheradioactivityintheairwouldincreaseandcoverthewholecountry.Wepreparedaportfolioofcoun-

termeasurestobeimplementedbythegovernment.Ipresentedthisprojectatameetingofthedeputyprimemin-

ister,severalministers,andhighrankingsecretariesoftheCen-tralCommitteeofthePolishUnitedWorkersParty,atabout4A.M.onApril29.Themost importantmeasure recommend-edandalsoacceptedafterashortdiscussionbythismixtureofgovernmentandpartyofficialswasstableiodineprophy-laxistoprotect thethyroidglandsofchildrenagainst iodine-131irradiation.Administrationofstableiodineinliquidform(asasolutionof

Lugol)wasinitiatedinthenortheasternpartofPoland,approxi-mately38hoursafterwediscoveredtheChernobylfallout(atapproximatelymidnightonApril28).Treatmentwasgivenforthenextthreedays,andabout18.5millionpeople,includingadults,receivedthestableiodinedrug.Wewereabletoperformthisactionsuccessfullybecausewe

hadalreadymadeplansforimplementingnuclearwaremer-gencymeasures.Inthe1960s,ourInstitutehadrecommendedthatthegovernmentprepareforsuchaneventbydistributingstrategicstoresofstableiodineatsitesalloverthecountry,astheonlyreasonablemeasureagainstbodycontaminationfromfissionproducts.Theprogramwas implemented in theearly1970s,andeachPolishpharmacy,hospital,andvariousotherinstitutionshadlargesuppliesofiodine.AtthetimeoftheChernobylaccident,Polandhadmorethan

enoughiodinereadyforuseforapproximately100dosesforeachPolishcitizen.Afewyearsafterthecatastrophe,itwases-timatedthatinthemorecontaminatedpartsofthecountrytheaverage thyroid radiation dose in the 1- to 10-year-old agegroupwasabout70mSv,andinabout5percentofchildrenthemaximumdosewasabout200mSv(Krajewski1991).

Courtesy of Zbigniew Jaworowski

Prophylacticdosesofstableiodinewereadministeredinliquidform(Lugol)with-inthreedaysoftheChernobylaccidentto18.5millionchildrenandadultsinPo-land.InagreementwiththerecommendationsoftheInternationalCommissiononRadiologicalProtectionandtheInternationalAtomicEnergyAgency(allbasedontheLNT),theauthorhadrecommendedthisvastoperationtothePolishgov-ernment.Now,heregardsthisactionasfutile.


Adecadelater,welearnedthatamongthemorethan34,000Swedish patientswhowere not suspected of having thyroidcancers,andwhosethyroidswereirradiatedwithiodine-131uptodosesof40,000mSv(averagedose1,100mSv),therewasnostatisticallysignificantincreaseinthyroidcancers,butrathera38percentdecreaseintheirincidence(Dickmanetal.2003,Halletal.1996,Holmetal.1988).IfIknewthenwhatIknowtoday,Iwouldnothaverecom-

mendedtothePolishgovernmentsuchavastprophylacticac-tion,notbecauseofitsallegedlyadversemedicaleffectstherewerenone(Nauman1989)butbecauseitspracticalpositivehealtheffectwasmeaningless.

Harmful Mass EvacuationsThemostnonsensical,expensive,andharmfulaction,how-

ever,wastheevacuationof336,000peoplefromcontaminatedregionsoftheformerSovietUnion,wheretheradiationdosefromChernobylfalloutwasabouttwicethenaturaldose.Later,thislimitwasdecreasedtoevenbelowthenaturallevel,andwassomefivetimeslowerthantheradiationdoserateof5.25mSv/yearatGrandCentralStationinNewYorkCity,whichisconstructedwithnaturalgranite(Benensonetal.2006).Contaminatedareasweredefinedasbeingthosewherethe

averagecesium-137grounddepositiondensityexceeded37kBqper square meter. In the Soviet Union, these areas covered146,100squarekilometers.TheChernobylfalloutofabout185kBqpersquaremeterormorealsocoveredlargeareasofAustria,Bulgaria, Finland, Norway, and Sweden (UNSCEAR 2000b).SmallareaswithChernobyl fallout, reachinguptoabout185kBqpersquaremeter,werealsofoundinothercountries(GreatBritain,Greece,Romania,Switzerland,andTurkey(EUR1996)).

Theaverageradiationdosesre-ceivedinareaswithacesium-137depositiondensityofabout37kBqpersquaremeterwereestimatedatabout1.6mSvduringthefirstyearaftertheChernobylaccident,andthe lifetime dose (after 70 years)waspredictedtoreach6mSv(UN-SCEAR1988).Thisactivitylevelis10 times lower than the averageamount (400kBqpersquareme-ter) of about 50 natural radionu-clidespresentina10-cm-thicklay-er of soil (Jaworowski 2002).ThecorrespondingChernobyl lifetimeradiation dose is 28 times lowerthan the average natural lifetimedoseofabout170mSv.Butthean-nualdosefrom37kBqofcesium-137persquaremeterwassimilarto the1mSv/yeardose limit rec-ommended by the InternationalCommission on Radiological Pro-tectionforthegeneralpopulation,andthisiswhyitwasacceptedbytheSovietauthoritiesasayardstickforremedialmeasures.The evacuation caused great

harmtothepopulationsofBelarus,Russia,andtheUkraine.Itledtomasspsychosomaticdisturbances,greateconomiclossandtraumaticsocialconsequences.AccordingtoAcademicianLeonidA.Ilyin,theleadingRussianauthorityonradiationpro-tection, themass relocationwas implemented by the Sovietgovernment under the pressure of populists, ecologists, andself-appointedspecialists,anditwasdoneagainsttheadviceofthebestSovietscientists(Ilyin1995,Ilyin1996).Thereallydan-gerousairradiationdoserateof1Gy/houronApril26,1986(0.01Gy/hourtwodayslater)coveredanuninhabitedareaofonlyabout0.5squarekilometersintwopatches,reachinguptoadistanceof1.8kmsouthwestoftheChernobylreactor(UN-SCEAR2000b).Basedonthesedata,therewasnovalidreasonforthemass

evacuationof49,614residentsfromthecityofPripyatandthevillageofYanov,situatedabout3kmfromtheburningreactor.Inthesesettlements,theradiationdoserateintheaironApril26,1986was1mSv/hour (UNSCEAR2000b),and twodayslateritwasonly0.01mSv/hour.Thus,withasteadilydecreas-ingradioactivityfallout,thedoseratewasnotdangerousatall.However,accordingtoL.A.Ilyin,oneoftheleadersofthe

Chernobylrescueteam,therewasadangerthatthecorium(themeltedcoreofthereactor,withatotalvolumeofabout200cu-bicmeters, amassof about540 tons, anda temperatureofabout 2000C,)might penetrate down through the concretefloorandspreadtoroomsbelow.Theteamsuspectedthatintheserooms therecouldhavebeenagreatvolumeofwater,withwhich thecoriumcouldcomeintocontact.Thiswouldhaveledtoamuchmorepowerfulexplosionthantheinitialone, and caused a vastly greater emission of radioactivity,whichcouldhavecoveredPripyatandYanowwithlethalfall-

Petr Pavlicek/IAEA

TheghosttownofPripyatinJuly2005.Its47,000residents,including17,000children,werecompletelyevacuatedthedayaftertheaccidentin1986.Pripyatwasbuiltinthe1970stohouseChernobylworkersinthe1970s,itwasoneoftheyoungesttownsinthethenSo-vietUnion;theaverageageofitsinhabitantswas26.Today,itisfrozenintime.Theferriswheel(centerleft)ispartofanamusementparkthatneveropened.Itshouldberesettled!


out.Therefore,theevacuationofthewholepopulationoftheselocalitieswasacorrectprecautionarymeasurethatwascarriedoutinanorderlymannerinonlytwohours.Buttheevacuationandrelocationoftheremainingapproxi-

mately286,000people,ofwhomtherewereabout220,000after1986(UNSCEAR2000b),wasanirrationaloverreaction,inducedinpartbytheinfluenceoftheInternationalCommis-sionofRadiologicalProtectionandInternationalAtomicEner-gyAgencyrecommendationsbasedon theLNT(Ilyin1995).ThecurrentreluctanceoftheUkrainianauthoritiestoresettletheresidentsbacktoPripyat(nowaslowlydecayingghosttownand tourist attraction) does not seem rational.The radiationdoseratemeasuredonApril10,2008inthestreetsofthiscityrangedfrom2.5to8.4mSv/year,i.e.,morethan10timeslowerthannaturalradiationinmanyregionsoftheworld(Fornalski2009).

Psychosomatic EpidemicsInadditiontothe28fatalitiesamongrescueworkersandem-

ployeesofthepowerstation,causedbyveryhighdosesofradia-tion(2.9-16Gy),and3deathsduetootherreasons(UNSCEAR2000b),theonlyrealadversehealthconsequencesoftheCher-nobylcatastropheamongapproximately5millionpeoplelivinginthecontaminatedregionsweretheepidemicsofpsychoso-maticafflictionsthatappearedasdiseasesofthedigestiveandcirculatory systems and other post-traumatic stress disorders,suchassleepdisturbance,headache,depression,anxiety,es-capism,learnedhelplessness,unwillingnesstocooperate,over-dependence,alcoholanddrugabuse,andsuicides.Thesediseasesanddisturbancescouldnothavebeencaused

bytheminuteirradiationdosesfromtheChernobylfallout(av-eragedoserateofabout1to2mSv/year),buttheywerecausedbyradiophobia,adeliberatelyinducedfearofradiation,aggra-vatedbywrongheadedadministrativedecisionsandeven,par-adoxically,byincreasedmedicalattention,whichleadstodi-agnosis of subclinical changes that persistently hold the

attentionofthepatient.Bad administrative decisionsmade severalmillion people

believethattheywerevictims of Chernobyl,althoughtheaver-ageannualdosetheyreceivedfromChernobylradiationwasonlyaboutonethirdoftheaveragenaturaldose.ThiswasthemainfactorresponsiblefortheeconomiclossescausedbytheChernobylcatastrophe,estimatedtohavereached$148billionby2000fortheUkraine,andtoreach$235billionby2016forBelarus.Psychologicalfactorsandafailuretoteachradiologicalpro-

tectioninmedicalschoolcurriculamighthaveledtoabortionsofwantedpregnanciesinWesternEuropeduringtheperiodsoonafter theaccident,wherephysicianswronglyadvisedpatientsthatChernobylradiationposedahealthrisktounbornchildren.However,numericalestimatesofthiseffect(Ketchum1987,Spi-nelliandOsborne1991)castdoubtonthisassumption.Similarlyuncertainareestimatesofthenumberofdecisions

againstconceptionprobably taken inEuropeduring thefirstfewmonthsaftertheaccident(Trichopoulosetal.1987).Thisproblemwasdiscussedin1987byanIAEAAdvisoryGroup,whichconcludedthatmedicalpractitionershavingdirectcon-tactwiththepopulationatlargeareamongthemostimportantpersonswhomightdeveloptherightperceptionofrisksinnu-clearemergencies,preventsocialpanicandoverreactions,andhelptoensuretherationalbehaviorinthesociety.

Fornalski 2009

RadiationmeasurementinPripyatonApril10,2008atasportsstadiuminthedowntownareaoftheabandonedcity,whichisabout4kmnorthwestfromtheChernobylreactor.Thedoseratewas0.28Sv/houror2.5mSv/year.Thisismorethan10timeslowerthanthenaturalradiationinmanyareasoftheworld.

Petr Pavlicek/IAEAAdoctorfromtheIAEAInternationalChernobylProjectexam-inesachildinUkraine,1990.AlthoughtheaverageradiationdosetotheseveralmillionpeoplearoundChernobylwasonlyaboutonethirdoftheaverageannualdosefromnaturalradia-tion, thepanicand radiophobiaafter theaccidentcreatedaclassofChernobylvictims,withmanydisordersrelatedtora-diophobia,notactualradiationdose.


AftertheChernobylaccidentthepublicveryoftenturnedforhelptomedicalpractitioners,butphysicianswereunabletopro-viderealisticadvice,evenonminorproblems.Thiswasbecausemedicalcurriculadidnotatthattimepreparedoctorsfornuclearemergencies.Innoneoftheninecountriesrepresentedatthemeetingweretheprinciplesofradiobiologyandradiationpro-tectionincludedinmedicalschoolcurricula(IAEA1987).Lackofknowledgeinthisimportantgroupwasamongthefactorsthatincreasedpublicanxietyandstress.Itseemsthatnow,twode-cadeslater,thesituationinthisrespectisverymuchthesame.

Effects of Chernobyl Fallout on the PopulationIn2000,theUnitedNationsScientificCommitteeontheEf-

fectsofAtomicRadiation(UNSCEAR2000b)andin2006,theUnitedNa-tionsChernobylForum(agroupcom-posed of representatives from eightU.N.organizations,theWorldBank,andthegovernmentsofBelarus,Rus-sia, and theUkraine) stated in theirdocuments that, except for thyroidcancers in the population of highlycontaminatedareas,therewasnoob-served increase in the incidence ofsolid tumors and leukemia, and noobservedincreaseingeneticdiseases.Anincreaseinregistrationofthyroidcancers in children under 15 yearsoldwasfirstfoundin1987,oneyearaftertheaccident,intheBryanskre-gionofRussia,andthegreatestinci-dence, of 0.027 percent of childrenunder15wasfoundin1994.Bothofthesestudiesweremadetoo

earlytobeinagreementwithwhatweknow about radiation-induced can-cers.Themeanlatencyperiodforma-

lignantthyroidtumorsinadultsandchildrenexposedtoexternalandinternalmedicalirradiationwithlessthan20tomorethan40Gyisabout28years(Kikuchietal.2004,UNSCEAR2000b).Kikuchi et al. tried to explain the discrepancy be-

tweentheclinicalexperienceandtheChernobylfind-ingswithsomeexoticideas,suchas,forexample,radia-tion leakage or other environmental conditions;exposuretocarcinogensthatoccurrednearChernobylpriortothenuclearaccident;andageneticpredisposi-tionofthepopulationtothyroidcancer.However,theserendipitouseffectofmassscreeninganddiagnosis,al-readysuspectedin1987,isamorelikelyexplanation.

The Clinical Screening EffectThenumberof4,000newthyroidcancersregistered

among the children from Belarus, Russia, and theUkraine should be viewed in the context of the ex-tremelyhighoccurrenceofthesedormantsubclinicalmalignanttumorsthatcontaintransformedtumorcells,whicharequitecommonintheworldpopulation(Ak-slenandNaumov2008,Weinberg2008).Forexample,

theincidenceofoccultthyroidcancers,variesfrom5.6percentinColombia,9.0percentinPoland,9.3percentinMinsk(Be-larus),13percentintheUnitedStates,and28percentinJapan,to35.6percentinFinland(Harachetal.1985,MoosaandMaz-zaferri1997).InFinland,thesedormantthyroidcancersareob-servedin2.4percentofchildren(Harachetal.1985),thatis,some90timesmorethanthemaximumobservedintheBry-anskregion,themostcontaminatedinRussia.InMinsk,Belarus,thenormalincidenceofoccultthyroidcan-

cersis9.3percent(Furmanchuketal.1993).TheChernobylthyroidcancersareofthesamehistologicaltypeandaresimilarin invasiveness to theoccult cancers (Moosa andMazzaferri1997,TanandGharib1997).Since1995,thenumberofregis-

Elisabeth Zeiler/IAEA

Agroupofvillagersbeing interviewedfor the IAEAepidemiologicalstudyduringtheInternationalChernobylAssessmentProject.

Petr Pavlicek/IAEA

ThenewtownofSlavutich,50kmfromChernobyl,whichwasbuiltforthedisplacedpersonsofChernobyl.


teredcancershastendedtodecline.Thisisnotinagreementwithwhatweknowaboutradiation-inducedthyroidcancers,whosela-tencyperiodisabout5-10yearsafterirradia-tionexposure(Inskip2001),andwhoseriskincreases until 15-29 years after exposure(UNSCEAR2000a).IntheUnitedStatestheincidencerateof

thyroidtumorsdetectedbetween1974and1979during a screening program,was 21timeshigherthanbeforethescreening(Ronetal.1992),anincreasesimilartothatob-servedinthreeformerSovietcountries.Itap-pearsthattheincreasedregistrationofthy-roid cancers in contaminated parts of thecountriesaffectedbyChernobylisaclassi-calscreeningeffect.AccordingtotheregulationsoftheBelar-

usianMinistryofHealth,thethyroidsofallpeoplewhowereyoungerthan18in1986andthoseofeachinhabitantofcontaminat-ed areas must be diagnosed every year(Parshkovetal.2004).Morethan90percentofchildrenincontaminatedareasarenowexamined for thyroid cancers every yearwithultrasonographyandothermethods.Itisobviousthatsuchavast-scalescreening,probablythegreatestinthehistoryofmedi-cine,resultedinfindingthousandsoftheoc-cult cancers, or incidentalomas, expandedto forms detectable by modern diagnosticmethodsthatwerenotinroutineuseintheSovietUnionbefore1986.Data for thepast20years,publishedby

Ivanovetal. in2004andcited in theUN-SCEAR and Chernobyl Forum documents(Forum 2005, Forum 2006, Ivanov et al.2004,UNSCEAR2008)show,incomparisontotheRussiangeneralpopulation,thattherewasa15to30percentlowermortalityfromsolid tumorsamong theRussianChernobylemergencyworkers,anda5percent loweraverage solid tumor incidence among thepopulationoftheBryanskdistrict, themostcontaminatedinRussia(Figures2and3).Inthemostexposedgroupofthesepeople

(with an estimated averagemean radiationdoseof40mSv),a17percentdecreaseintheincidence of solid tumors of all kindswasfound.IntheBryanskdistrict, theleukemiaincidenceisnothigher thanintheRussiangeneralpopulation.AccordingtoUNSCEAR(2000b), no increase in birth defects, con-genitalmalformations,stillbirths,orprema-turebirthscouldbelinkedtoradiationexpo-sures causedby theChernobyl fallout.Thefinalconclusionof theUNSCEAR2000re-portisthatthepopulationofthethreemaincontaminatedareas,withacesium-137de-

Figure 2STANDARD MORTALITY RATIOS FOR SOLID CANCERS AMONG THE

RUSSIAN EMERGENCY WORKERSThevaluesofstandardmortalityratios(SMR)indicatehowthecancermor-talityofemergencyworkersdiffersfromthatofthegeneralpopulationofRussia,whichwasusedasacontrolgroup(SMR=1.0).Thedeficitofcan-cersamongtheseworkersbetween1990and1999,rangedbetween15per-centand30percent.Source: Ivanov et al. 2004, p. 225

Figure 3STANDARD INCIDENCE RATIOS FOR SOLID CANCERS IN THE

BRYANSK REGION OF RUSSIATheaveragedeficitofcancersintheinhabitantsoftheBryanskregionwas5percent,andinthemostexposedgroup(meanradiationdoseof40mGy)itwas17percent.Source: Ivanov et al. 2004, pp. 373-374


positiondensitygreaterthan37kBq/squaremeter,neednotliveinfearofserioushealthconsequences,andforecaststhatgener-allypositiveprospectsforthefuturehealthofmostindividualsshouldprevail.ThepublicationsoftheU.N.ChernobylForumpresentarath-

erbalancedoverviewoftheChernobylhealthproblems,butwiththreeimpor-tant exceptions.Thefirst (mainlyafterCardisetal.2005)isignoringordown-playingtheeffectofscreeningforthy-roidcancersinabout90percentofthepopulation(seediscussionabove),andinterpretingtheresultswithalinearno-thresholddose-responsemodel.ThepaperbyCardisetal.,however,

wascriticizedforthisinterpretation,asnot confirmed by the data presentedandattributingmostofthethyroidcan-cerstoradiation(Scott2006).BoththeChernobyl Forum and the 2005 and2006papersbyCardisetal.ignoretheaforementioned fundamental problemofoccultthyroidcancersintheformerSovietUnionandelsewhereinEurope.Theincidenceofthyroidoccultcan-

cersincreasedrapidlyaftertheadventof new ultrasonography diagnostics(Topliss2004),reachingupto35.6per-cent(seeabove).Thisincidenceismorethan1,300timeshigherthanthemaxi-mum thyroid cancer incidence foundintheBryanskregionofRussiain1994(UNSCEAR 2000b), which implies avastpotentialforbias.ItseemsthattherestillhasnotbeenanepidemiologicalstudyofthetemporalchangesofintensityofthyroidscreeningintheformerSovietUnion.Theconclusionsof theepidemiologicalstudiesthatdidnottakeintoaccountthesechangesinscreeningmaybeinvalid.IntheBryanskregionofRussia,thethyroidcancerincidence

was found tobe45percenthigher inmalesand90percenthigherinfemales,thanfortheRussianpopulationasawhole.However,whendose-responseanalyseswereperformed,usingexternalandinternalcomparisons,nopositiveassociationofthyroidcancerswithradiationdosewasobserved. Instead,anegativeassociationwasobserved,i.e.ahormeticeffect(Iva-

IAEA

CheckingradiationinahouseinthevillageofBabovichi,Rus-sianFederation,inAugust1990.

Figure 4CHERNOBYL RADIATION AFTER THE ACCIDENT

TheradiationdoserateinaironApril26,1986inthelo-calareaoftheChernobylreactor.Unitsoftheisolinesaresievertsperhour.Onlyinthetwopatchesinsidethe1Svisolineswerethedoserateslifeendangering,duringthefirsttwodays.Aftertwodays,thedoseratesdecreasedabout100times.Source: Adapted from UNSCEAR 2000

Figure 5RADIATION PLUMES AFTER THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT

Theplumesofradiationformedbymeteorologicalconditionsonthedaysfollow-ingMarch26,1986.ThedatesandtimesareindicatedinGreenwichMeanTime.Source: Adapted from UNSCEAR 2000


novetal.2004).TheseresultsstronglysuggestthattheincreasedcancerratesinBryansk(and,byimplication,inothercontami-natedregions)comparedwithgeneralpopulationratesaretheresultofthyroidcancerscreeningandbetterreporting,ratherthanradiationexposure(Ron2007).EvenmoreimportantaproblemintheU.N.ChernobylFo-

rumreportwasthatitignoredthedecreaseofthyroidcancerincidenceofupto38percent,aftertheiodine-131treatmentofmanythousandsofnon-cancerpatientswiththyroidradiationdosessimilarto,orhigherthan,thosefromtheChernobylfall-out(Dickmanetal.2003,Halletal.1996,Holmetal.1991,andHolmetal.1988).ThesecondproblemwiththeChernobylForumreportisesti-

mationofdeathsamongthepatientswithacuteradiationdis-ease.Fromamong134personswiththisdiseasewhohadbeenexposedtoextremelyhighradiationdoses,31diedsoonaftertheaccident.Amongthe103survivors,19diedbefore2004.Mostofthesedeathswerecausedbysuchdisordersaslunggangrene,coronaryheartdisease,tuberculosis,livercirrhosis,fatembolism,andotherconditionsthatcanhardlybedefinedascausedbyionizingradiation.Nevertheless,theChernobylForumpresentsthemasaresultingfromhighirradiationandsumsthemuptoar-riveatatotalofapproximately50victimsofacuteirradiation.Aftermany summers, all the103 survivorswill eventually

die.TheChernobylForumphilosophywouldthencountthemall,yieldingaroundtotalof134victimsofhighirradiation.Infact,themortalityrateamongthese103survivorswas1.08per-centperyear,thatis,lessthantheaveragemortalityrateof1.5percentinthethreeaffectedcountriesin2000(GUS1991).Andfinally,thethirdChernobylForumproblemisitspro-

jectionsoffuturefatalitiescausedbylow-levelChernobylradia-tion,from4,000uptoexactly9,935deaths.Thesenumbersare

notbasedonepidemiologicaldataofcancermortalityobservedduringthepast20yearsbyIvanovetal.NosuchincreasewasdemonstratedbyIvanovetal.(2004),butratherade-creaseofsolidtumorandleukemiadeaths among exposed people.Theseepidemiologicaldata,ratherthan the LNT assumption, shouldbeusedasthebasis forarealisticprojection of the future health ofthemillionsofpeopleofficiallyla-beledvictimsofChernobyl.However,theChernobylForum

insteadchosetousetheLNTradia-tion risk model (ICRP 1991) andperformedasimplisticarithmeticalexercise, multiplying small dosesbyagreatnumberofpeople,andincludingaradiationriskfactorde-ducedfromtheHiroshimaandNa-gasakistudies.This is an entirely fallacious

method. People living in areashighlycontaminatedby theCher-nobyl falloutwere irradiated dur-ing a protracted time. The dose

ratesinHiroshimaandNagasaki,incontrast,werehigherbyafactorofabout1011thantheaveragedoserateoftheChernobylvictimsthatwasusedintheForumsprojections.Theresultofthisexerciseisnothingmorethanafantasticlie.Severalscientificandradiationprotectionbodies,including

UNSCEAR,theHealthPhysicsSociety(Mossmanetal.1996),theFrenchAcademyofScience(Tubiana1998),andeventhechairmanoftheInternationalCommissiononRadiologicalPro-tection (Clarke 1999), advised againstmaking such calcula-tions.MerelypublishingthesenumbersisharmfulandpetrifiestheChernobylfears.Anyeffortstoexplaintheintricaciesofradiationriskassess-

ments to the public, or to compare these numberswith themuchhigherlevelofspontaneouscancerdeaths,willbefutileexercises.Thepast20yearshasproved that suchefforts areworthless.Makingsuchcalculationskeepsalotofpeoplebusyandwell,buthasnorelationship torealityandhonesty.TheForumselucubrations,however,paleincomparisonwithre-cent estimates by other bodies such asGreenpeace (Green-peace2006,Vidal2006),predictingtheincidenceofmillionsofChernobylcancersandhundredsofthousandsofdeaths.

Remove the Chernobyl Restrictions!It isreassuring,however,that16yearsaftertheChernobyl

catastrophe,anothergroup,composedoffourU.N.organiza-tionstheUnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme(UNDP),theWorldHealthOrganization(WHO),theU.N.InternationalChildrensEmergencyFund(UNICEF)andtheU.N.OfficefortheCoordinationofHumanitarianAffaires(UNOCHA)daredtostateinits2002report,basedonUNSCEARstudies,thatagreatpartofthebillionsofdollarsusedtomitigatetheconse-quencesoftheChernobylaccidentwasspentincorrectly.The

Figure 6SURFACE GROUND MAP OF CESIUM-137 RELEASED IN THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT

Source: Adapted from UNSCEAR 2000


dollarsspentintheseeffortsdidnotimprove,butactu-allyworsened,adeterioratingsituationfor7millionso-calledvictimsofChernobylandsolidifiedthepsycho-logicaleffectsofthecatastropheandthewrongdecisionsoftheauthorities.Thereport(UNDP2002)recommendedthatthethree

post-Sovietcountriesandtheinternationalorganizationsabandonthecurrentpolicy.Themisguidedbasisofthispolicy,i.e.expectationofmassradiationhealtheffects,wasresponsiblefortheenormousanduselesslyexpend-edresourcessacrificedforremediationefforts. Instead,the report presented 35 practical recommendationsneeded to stop thevicious cycleofChernobyl frustra-tions, social degradation, pauperization, and the epi-demic of psychosomatic disorders. The recommenda-tions suggest a reversal of the policy of concentratingattentiononnonexistentradiationhazards,andproposethat relocated individualsbeallowedtoreturn to theiroldsettlements.Thatis,thatessentiallyalloftherestric-tionsshouldberemoved.1*Buthereweenterapoliticalmine-field.Howwellwill

people accept losing the mass benefits (equivalent toabout$40amonth)thattheypoeticallycallacoffinbo-nus? How can it be explained tothemthattheyweremadetobelievethattheywerethevictimsofanon-existenthazard;thatthemassevacua-tionswereanirresponsibleerror;thatfor20years,peoplewereunnecessar-ilyexposedtosufferingandneed;thatvastareasoflandwereunnecessarilybarredfromuse;andthattheircoun-tries resources were incrediblysquandered?Onecanreadinmanypublications

that the Chernobyl catastrophe hadseriouspoliticalimplicationsandwasanimportantfactorinthedismantlingoftheSovietUnionandinattemptstocontrolnucleararms.AsMikhailGor-bachevstated:

ThenuclearmeltdownatCher-nobyl20yearsagoevenmorethanmylaunchofprerestroika,wasperhapstherealcauseofthecollapseoftheSovietUnionfiveyearslater.Chernobylopenedmyeyeslikenothingelse:itshowedthehorribleconsequencesofnuclearpower.Onecould

* On July 23, 2010, Belarus, Russian, and Polish news agencies, including some radio stations and TV channels, announced that this last recommendation was fulfilled by the Belarus government, which decided to repopulate 2,000 vil-lages in the contaminated areas. Assuming 100 residents for one village, this would amount to about 200,000 people. It seems that preparations for this move started in about 2004, and already several thousands have come back to their old settlements. The Belarus government deserves commendation for its cour-age to stand up to the Chernobyl hysteria, which for years has been cultivated by Greenpeace and other Greens. Its decision brings us back to normalcy. See Belarus Repopulating Exclusion Zone, this issue.

nowimaginemuchmoreclearlywhatmighthappenifanuclearbombexplodedoneSS-18rocketcouldcontainahundredChernobyls.Unfortunately,theproblemofnucleararmsisstillveryserioustoday(Gorbachev2006).

WouldfulfillingtherecommendationsoftheUnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme(UNDP)2000reportagainresultinapoliticalcatharsisandperhapsinduceviolentreactions?Prob-ablynot inRussia,whereamorerationalapproachtoCher-nobylprevails.ButthepoliticalclassesofBelarusandUkraine

Petr Pavlicek/IAEA

AfarmerinJelno,July2005.Jelnoisavillage300kmfromChernobyl,whichwasaffectedbycontaminationfromtheaccidentbecauseofweatherconditions.Nowthepopulationhasgonebacktotheland.Socialupheaval,however, theIAEAnoted,has left farmerswithonlyprimitivetoolsofthetrade.

Petr Pavlicek/IAEAJelnoisatownwheretimehasstoodstill,theIAEAnoted,unlikethenewsettlementofSlavutich.


haveforyearsdemonstratedamuchmoreemotionalapproach.WhentheUNSCEAR2000areport,documentingthelowinci-denceofserioushealthhazardsresultingfromtheChernobylaccident,waspresentedtotheU.N.GeneralAssembly,theBe-larus andUkraine delegations lodged a fulminating protest.ThissetthestagefortheChernobylForumin2002,andhelpedtofocusitsagenda.Today,theChernobylrumbleandemotionsarebeginningto

settledown.Inthecenturiestocome,thecatastrophewillberememberedasaproofthatnuclearpowerisasafemeansofenergyproduction.ItevenmightchangethethinkingoftheIn-ternationalCommissiononRadiologicalProtection.

Zbigniew Jaworowski is a multidisciplinary scientist who has published more than 300 scientific papers, four books, and scores of popular science articles, including many in 21stCen-tury. He has been a member of the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) since 1973, and served as its chairman from 1980-1982.

This article is adapted from the authors Chernobyl Disaster and LNT, in Dose-Response, Vol. 8, No. 2, 2010.

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