march 2015 u.s. employment update and outlook

U.S. employment situation: September 2013

Release date: October 22, 2013

February registers 295,000 new jobs

as 2015’s solid start continues

U.S. employment situation: February 2015 March 6, 2015

February 2015 employment summary

• After a strong start in January, February saw 295,000 net new jobs added to the national economy, bringing the 2015 year-to-date total to

534,000.

- Unemployment declined by 20 basis points to 5.5 percent. A 10-basis-point decrease in labor force participation to 62.8 percent was a

contributor in falling unemployment, lowering the number of people looking for work.

- Total unemployment dropped even faster, down 30 basis points to 11.0 percent.

- Unemployment for college and high-school grads remains near cyclical lows (2.7 and 5.4 percent, respectively), but labor force

participation for both groups is at record lows with little sign of increase.

• Office-using industries contributed 68,000 jobs to February growth, similar to previous months but not on the same upward trajectory as

other high-growth sectors.

- Due to strong performance in education, health, leisure and construction, the office-using industries contributed only 23.1 percent of

December’s job creation.

• Consumer confidence dipped slightly to 96.4 points in February. However, as this is a measure of consumer sentiment, it is prone to

variation, while other fundamentals show that the trend is still on the up and growth in consumption expenditures shows further increases in

consumer demand.

• Texas, the Sunbelt and the West Coast continue to lead job growth: Dallas, Denver, Houston, Jacksonville, Orlando and Silicon Valley,

among other markets, all posted in excess of 3.0 percent year-on-year job creation.

• Improvements in the labor market have finally had a significant effect on the office sector. Over the course of 2014, occupancy growth has

surpassed 54.7 million square feet (highest in more than five years), pushing vacancy to 15.6 percent and placing upward pressure on

rents across markets.

Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

February registered 295,000 new jobs, bringing the year-to-date

total to 534,000 already; January revised downward slightly36

0,00

0

226,

000

243,

000

96,0

00

110,

000

88,0

00 106,

000

122,

000

221,

000

183,

000

164,

000 19

6,00

0

360,

000

226,

000

243,

000

96,0

00

110,

000

88,0

00

160,

000

150,

000

161,

000

225,

000

203,

000

214,

000

197,

000

280,

000

141,

000

203,

000

199,

000

201,

000

149,

000

202,

000

164,

000

237,

000 27

4,00

0

84,0

00

166,

000

188,

000 22

5,00

0

330,

000

236,

000

286,

000

249,

000

213,

000 25

0,00

0

221,

000

423,

000

329,

000

239,

000

295,

000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

Jan-

11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-1

1

Sep

-11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-1

2

Sep

-12

Nov

-12

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep

-13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep

-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge


3

Although more people are looking for work, strong growth

figures pushed unemployment down to 5.5 percent

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

-1,000.0

-800.0

-600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

(%)

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

(tho

usan

ds)

Monthly employment change Unemployment rate


4

Job openings broke 5.0 million for the first time during the

current cycle as expansionary labor market activity increases


5

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Job

open

ings

(th

ousa

nds)

-8.0

-7.8

-3.0

0.4

0.8

7.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

11.7

18.5

29.0

32.0

32.8

51.0

54.0

66.0

-20 0 20 40 60 80

Mining and logging

Temporary help services

Nondurable goods

Utilities

Motor vehicles and parts

Government

Information

Manufacturing

Other services

Financial activities

Durable goods

Wholesale trade

Transportation and warehousing

Construction

Retail trade

Health care and social assistance

Professional and business services

Education and health services

Leisure and hospitality

1-month net change (thousands)

Leisure and hospitality, education and health and PBS post

consistent gains, while falling oil prices are hurting mining


6


Education and health

PBS

All other subsectors

Top three

subsectors

responsible for

58.0 percent of

monthly

growth.

9.7

13.0

22.0

48.3

59.0

87.0

89.0

113.4

141.1

150.0

192.2

195.0

208.0

318.9

321.0

473.7

527.0

539.0

660.0

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Utilities

Nondurable goods

Mining and logging

Motor vehicles and parts

Information

Government

Other services

Wholesale trade

Temporary help services


Transportation and warehousing

Durable goods

Manufacturing

Retail trade

Construction

Health care and social assistance


Education and health services

Professional and business services

12-month net change (thousands)

PBS

Education and health


Retail trade

Manufacturing


All other jobs

Year-over-year growth has been more consistent, with office-

using industries alone adding 921,000 jobs


7

Core subsectors added 72.9 percent

of all jobs over the past 12 months.

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Change in '000s jobs

The private sector continues to drive job growth, with more

than 5.5 million jobs created over the past two years

Private sector hiring up 5.5

million since February 2013

Public sector hiring up 17,000

workers since February 2013


8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Une

mpl

oym

ent (

%)

Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college

White-collar unemployment continues to fall, now at cyclical

low of 2.7 percent

2.7%

5.4%


9

Labor force participation in both segments has remained

largely flat and at record lows


10

54.0%

55.0%

56.0%

57.0%

58.0%

59.0%

60.0%

61.0%

62.0%

63.0%

64.0%

70.0%

71.0%

72.0%

73.0%

74.0%

75.0%

76.0%

77.0%

78.0%

79.0%

80.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Hig

h sc

hool

gra

duat

e la

bor

forc

e pa

rtic

ipat

ion

rate

(%

)

Col

lege

gra

duat

e la

bor

forc

e pa

rtic

ipat

ion

rate

(%

)

Bachelor's degree High school, no college

Goods-producing industries post 14th consecutive month of

aggregate job growth in February

-1,000.0

-800.0

-600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

(tho

usan

ds)

Goods-producing Service-providing


11

Tech stays steady at 5.9 percent, while energy employment is

feeling the effects of falling oil prices

-11.0

-9.0

-7.0

-5.0

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

9.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm

Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through January 2015.

12

12-m

onth

% c

hang

e (jo

bs)

Tech still leading; energy demonstrating first signs of decline in

response to falling pricesYear-on-year percent employment growth


13

Throughout 2015 so far, initial unemployment claims have been

largely steady around 300,000

Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor

14

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

Cla

ims

Initial claims 4-week moving average

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

(%)

Con

sum

er c

onfid

ence

inde

x

Consumer confidence index

Unemployment rate

Although declining slightly in February, consumer confidence

remains at cyclical highs due to sustained economic momentum

Source: JLL Research, Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics

15

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Hire

s an

d qu

its (

thou

sand

s)

Hires Quits

Both hires and quits rose once again in February as companies

are now competing for talent


Texas, Florida and West Coast markets continue to post fastest

job growth, led by Dallas


17

Denver

3.3%

Silicon Valley

4.0%

Jacksonville

3.7%

Orlando

4.3%Houston

4.2%

Dallas

4.4%

Some East Coast and Midwestern markets are still posting

job growth below 1.0 percent year-on-year, however

18


Washington,

DC

0.7%

Pittsburgh

1.1%

Westchester

County

0.2%

Philadelphia

0.8%

New Jersey

0.7%

Chicago

0.9%

Detroit

1.1%

Labor force participation is stuck at 62.8 percent, which is

helping to push unemployment down slowly


19

60.0%

61.0%

62.0%

63.0%

64.0%

65.0%

66.0%

67.0%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Labo

r fo

rce

part

icip

atio

n ra

te (

%)

Total unemployment is falling faster than the official rate,

down by 30 basis points to 11.0 percent

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

Total unemployment U-6 10-year average


20

Strong performance in construction, education, health and leisure

pushed down office-using industries’ share of monthly growth


21

Although financial activities and information are becoming more

stable, office-using growth is contributing less to overall gains

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Information Professional and business services Financial activities

PBS represented 78.2 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010.

In February 2015, it represented 75.0 percent of monthly growth.


22

Temporary help services contracted for the second month in a

row; 2015 losses total 21,600 jobs

1,000.0

1,200.0

1,400.0

1,600.0

1,800.0

2,000.0

2,200.0

2,400.0

2,600.0

2,800.0

3,000.0

-100.0

-80.0

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Mon

thly

net

cha

nge

in jo

bs (

ths)

Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment

Temporary em

ployment (ths)


23

©2015 JLL Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.

For more information, please contact:

Ben Breslau

Managing Director - Americas Research

[email protected]

John Sikaitis

Managing Director - Office and Local Markets Research

[email protected]

Phil Ryan

Research Analyst – Office and Economy Research

[email protected]

Or, find more employment, business and real estate

research at jll.com.

>>> Click here to check it out.

mailto:[email protected]



http://www.us.jll.com/united-states/en-us/research?utm_source=research&utm_medium=slideshare&utm_campaign=march15employment

march 2015 u.s. employment update and outlook

Economy & Finance

percent year

job growth

percent of monthly growth

jll research

bureau of labor statistics6top

occupancy growth

labor force participation

yearoveryear growth