february 2015 u.s. employment update and outlook

U.S. employment situation: September 2013

Release date: October 22, 2013

January starts 2015 off strong with

257,000 new jobs

U.S. employment situation: January 2015 February 6, 2015

January 2015 employment summary

• After a resurgent November and December, the U.S. labor market reverted back to its 2014 rate of growth in January and added 257,000

net new jobs, bringing the 12-month running average to 267,250.

- Unemployment increased by 10 basis points to 5.7 percent. A 20-basis-point increase in labor force participation to 62.9 percent was a

contributor in pushing up unemployment, increasing the number of people looking for work.

- Total unemployment also rose by 10 basis points 11.3 percent, pushed up by the increase in labor force participation as well.

- Unemployment for college and high-school grads remains near cyclical lows (2.8 and 5.4 percent, respectively), but labor force

participation for both groups is at record lows with little sign of increase.

• Like total non-farm employment, the office-using industries reverted back to normal levels of growth in December, adding 71,000 jobs over

the course of the month.

- Due to strong performance in education, health, leisure and construction, the office-using industries contributed only 27.6 percent of

December’s job creation.

• Consumer confidence is back up and surpassed 100 points for the first time during the recovery. This has had a positive effect on other

indicators: personal consumption expenditures increased by 3.2 percent year-on-year in December to $442.9 billion.

• Texas, the Sunbelt and the West Coast continue to lead job growth: Dallas, Denver, Houston, Jacksonville, Orlando and Silicon Valley,

among other markets, all posted in excess of 3.0 percent year-on-year job creation.

• Improvements in the labor market have finally had a significant effect on the office sector. Over the course of 2014, occupancy growth has

surpassed 54.7 million square feet (highest in more than five years), pushing vacancy to 15.6 percent and placing upward pressure on

rents across markets.

Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

January starts off 2015 strong with 257,000 new jobs, while

revisions push November to highest monthly gain yet 36

0,00

0

226,

000

243,

000

96,0

00

110,

000

88,0

00

106,

000

122,

000

221,

000

183,

000

164,

000 19

6,00

0

360,

000

226,

000

243,

000

96,0

00

110,

000

88,0

00

160,

000

150,

000

161,

000

225,

000

203,

000

214,

000

197,

000

280,

000

141,

000

203,

000

199,

000

201,

000

149,

000

202,

000

164,

000

237,

000 27

4,00

0

84,0

00

166,

000

188,

000 22

5,00

0

330,

000

236,

000

286,

000

249,

000

213,

000 25

0,00

0

221,

000

423,

000

329,

000

257,

000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

Jan-

11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-1

1

Sep

-11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-1

2

Sep

-12

Nov

-12

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep

-13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep

-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge


3

Unemployment up slightly to 5.7 percent, in part due to an

increase in the number of people looking for jobs

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

-1,000.0

-800.0

-600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

(%)

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

(tho

usan

ds)

Monthly employment change Unemployment rate


4

Job openings continue to rise and are consistently above pre-

recession peaks, approaching 5.0 million


5

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Job

open

ings

(th

ousa

nds)

-10.0

-8.6

-4.1

-3.0

0.5

4.0

4.0

6.0

6.7

12.7

18.0

22.0

26.0

37.0

39.0

39.0

45.9

46.0

49.7

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Government

Transportation and warehousing

Temporary help services

Mining and logging

Utilities

Other services

Nondurable goods

Information

Motor vehicles and parts

Wholesale trade

Durable goods

Manufacturing

Financial activities

Leisure and hospitality

Construction

Professional and business services

Retail trade

Education and health services

Health care and social assistance

1-month net change (thousands)

Industry gains much more uneven in January than in previous

months; education, health and retail lead


6

Education and health

Retail trade

PBS

All other subsectors

Top three

subsectors

responsible for

50.9 percent of

monthly

growth.

9.2

18.0

36.0

47.0

66.9

78.0

80.0

105.9

155.8

159.0

179.5

210.0

228.0

293.3

308.0

456.9

482.0

509.0

715.0

0 200 400 600 800

Utilities

Nondurable goods

Mining and logging

Information

Motor vehicles and parts

Other services

Government

Wholesale trade

Transportation and warehousing


Temporary help services

Durable goods

Manufacturing

Retail trade

Construction

Health care and social assistance


Education and health services

Professional and business services

12-month net change (thousands)

PBS

Education and health


Retail trade

Manufacturing


All other jobs

Year-over-year growth has been more consistent, with office-

using industries alone adding 921,000 jobs


7

Core subsectors added 74.4 percent

of all jobs over the past 12 months.

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Change in '000s jobs

The private sector continues to drive job growth, with more

than 5.5 million jobs created over the past two years

Private sector hiring up 5.5

million since January 2013

Public sector hiring up 14,000

workers since January 2013


8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Une

mpl

oym

ent (

%)

Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college

White-collar and high school-graduate unemployment stable;

white-collar essentially at saturation

2.8%

5.4%


9

Labor force participation in both segments has remained

largely flat and at record lows


10

54.0%

55.0%

56.0%

57.0%

58.0%

59.0%

60.0%

61.0%

62.0%

63.0%

64.0%

70.0%

71.0%

72.0%

73.0%

74.0%

75.0%

76.0%

77.0%

78.0%

79.0%

80.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Hig

h sc

hool

gra

duat

e la

bor

forc

e pa

rtic

ipat

ion

rate

(%

)

Col

lege

gra

duat

e la

bor

forc

e pa

rtic

ipat

ion

rate

(%

)

Bachelor's degree High school, no college

Goods-producing industries post 13th consecutive month of

aggregate job growth in January

-1,000.0

-800.0

-600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

(tho

usan

ds)

Goods-producing Service-providing


11

Tech rises to 7.1 percent at the end of 2014, while energy

employment is falling in line with decreasing oil prices

-11.0

-9.0

-7.0

-5.0

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

9.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm

Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through December 2014.

12

12-m

onth

% c

hang

e (jo

bs)

Tech still leading; energy demonstrating first signs of decline in

response to falling prices Year-on-year percent employment growth


13

For the first five weeks of 2015, the four-week moving average

of initial claims has remained at or below 300,000

Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor

14

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

Cla

ims

Initial claims 4-week moving average

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

(%)

Con

sum

er c

onfid

ence

inde

x

Consumer confidence index

Unemployment rate

Consumer confidence surpassed 100 points for the first time in

January on the back of sustained improvements in fundamentals

Source: JLL Research, Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics

15

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Hire

s an

d qu

its (

thou

sand

s)

Hires Quits

Both hires and quits are on an upward trajectory, signaling

improved employee confidence in the labor market


Texas, Florida and West Coast markets continue to post fastest

job growth, led by Dallas


17

Denver

3.3%

Silicon Valley

4.0%

Jacksonville

3.7%

Orlando

4.3%

Dallas

4.4%

Houston

4.2%

Some East Coast and Midwestern markets are still posting

job growth below 1.0 percent year-on-year, however

18


Washington,

DC

0.7%

Pittsburgh

1.1%

Westchester

County

0.2%

Philadelphia

0.8%

New Jersey

0.7%

Chicago

0.9%

Detroit

1.1%

Labor force participation rose by 20 basis points in January to

62.9 percent, pushing up unemployment


19

60.0%

61.0%

62.0%

63.0%

64.0%

65.0%

66.0%

67.0%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Labo

r fo

rce

part

icip

atio

n ra

te (

%)

Similar to the official unemployment rate, total unemployment

nudged upward by 10 basis points to 11.3 percent

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

Total unemployment U-6 10-year average


20

Strong performance in construction, education, health and leisure

pushed down office-using industries’ share of monthly growth


21

Previously lagging, financial services is becoming an

increasingly important contributor to office-using job growth

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Information Professional and business services Financial activities

PBS represented 78.2 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010.

In January 2015, it represented 54.9 of monthly growth.


22

For the first time in more than a year, temporary help services

registered a monthly contraction

1,000.0

1,200.0

1,400.0

1,600.0

1,800.0

2,000.0

2,200.0

2,400.0

2,600.0

2,800.0

3,000.0

-100.0

-80.0

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mon

thly

net

cha

nge

in jo

bs (

ths)

Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment

Temporary em

ployment (ths)


23

©2014 JLL Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.

For more information, please contact:

Ben Breslau

Managing Director - Americas Research

[email protected]

John Sikaitis

Managing Director - Office and Local Markets Research

[email protected]

Phil Ryan

Research Analyst – Office and Economy Research

[email protected]

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february 2015 u.s. employment update and outlook

Economy & Finance

percent year

labor market

labor force participation

bureau of labor statistics

total unemployment

net new jobs

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