u.s. employment update and outlook: october 2014

U.S. employment situation: September 2013

Release date: October 22, 2013

Job creation bounces back into

expansion mode in September

U.S. employment situation: September 2014 October 3, 2014

September 2014 employment summary

• Total non-farm employment increased by 248,000 jobs in September, bouncing back from a

slow August and recording yet another monthly increase of more than 200,000 jobs this

year.

- Growth was once again highly diverse and the top three subsectors in terms of additions

were responsible for less than two-thirds of new jobs.

- On a year-on-year basis, all subsectors posted net growth for the first time during the

recovery.

• Unemployment fell by 20 basis points to 5.9 percent due to a combination of persistent labor

force participation declines (down to 62.8 percent in August) and steady employment gains.

- Total unemployment declined to 11.8 percent, the first time during this cycle that it has

fallen below the 10-year average.

- Unemployment for college and high-school grads decreased sharply to a mere 2.9 and 5.2

percent, respectively.

September 2014 employment summary (con’t)

• After months of relative stagnancy, all three office-using subsectors (PBS, financial activities

and information) witnessed a jump in hiring, adding a combined 105,000 jobs during

September. Revisions to previous months were also beneficial to all three industries.

• Even with a slight dip in consumer confidence, it remains high at 86.0 points, although still

below pre-recession levels. Consumer confidence has risen over the course of the year due

to more consistent job growth and falling unemployment in the vast majority of geographies,

while it has also spurred improved consumption and spending.

• From a geographic perspective, Texas and the Sunbelt are the definite leaders, with markets

consistently reporting 3.5 percent or greater year-on-year employment growth. While most

major markets are now in the 2.0+ percent range (with the notable exceptions of Chicago

and Philadelphia), they have yet to keep up with Austin, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Raleigh-

Durham and South Florida in percentage terms, among other high-growth areas.

Job growth bounces back up in September after slowing in

August; 2014 averages monthly growth of 223,000 jobs 22

0,00

0

121,

000

120,

000

360,

000

226,

000

243,

000

96,0

00

110,

000

88,0

00

106,

000

122,

000

221,

000

183,

000

164,

000 19

6,00

0

360,

000

226,

000

243,

000

96,0

00

110,

000

88,0

00

160,

000

150,

000

161,

000

225,

000

203,

000

214,

000

197,

000

280,

000

141,

000

203,

000

199,

000

201,

000

149,

000

202,

000

164,

000

237,

000 27

4,00

0

84,0

00

144,

000

222,

000

201,

000

304,

000

202,

000

267,

000

243,

000

180,

000

248,

000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Oct

-10

Dec

-11

Feb

-11

Apr

-11

Jun-

11

Aug

-11

Oct

-11

Dec

-11

Feb

-12

Apr

-12

Jun-

12

Aug

-12

Oct

-12

Dec

-12

Feb

-13

Apr

-13

Jun-

13

Aug

-13

Oct

-13

Dec

-13

Feb

-14

Apr

-14

Jun-

14

Aug

-14

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

4

Another month of gains greater than 200,000 jobs pushed

down unemployment to 5.9 percent in September

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

-1,000.0

-800.0

-600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

(%)

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

(tho

usan

ds)

Monthly employment change Unemployment rate


5

Job openings have hit a seven-year high, remaining stable at

4.7 million


6

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Job

open

ings

(th

ousa

nds)

-3.0

-2.1

-0.8

0.0

1.8

1.9

4.0

7.0

9.0

12.0

12.0

12.0

16.0

19.7

22.7

32.0

33.0

35.3

81.0

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

Nondurable goods

Utilities

Motor vehicles and parts

Other services

Wholesale trade

Transportation and warehousing

Manufacturing

Durable goods

Mining and logging

Information

Financial activities

Government

Construction

Temporary help services

Health care and social assistance

Education and health services

Leisure and hospitality

Retail trade

Professional and business services

1-month net change (thousands)

After months of slow growth, office-using industries surge by

105,000 jobs, but gains remain diverse


7

PBS

Retail trade


All other subsectors

Top three

subsectors

responsible for

60.2 percent of

monthly

growth.

1.7

10.0

14.0

47.0

47.0

52.0

61.4

89.0

108.9

139.7

147.0

161.0

230.0

232.5

264.4

343.7

372.0

399.0

713.0

0 200 400 600 800

Utilities

Information

Nondurable goods

Government

Other services

Mining and logging

Motor vehicles and parts


Wholesale trade

Transportation and warehousing

Durable goods

Manufacturing

Construction

Temporary help services

Retail trade

Health care and social assistance


Education and health services

Professional and business services

12-month net change (thousands)

PBS

Education and health


Retail trade

Manufacturing


All other jobs

For the first time during the recovery, all subsectors

demonstrated net growth, with YoY gains totaling 2.6 million


8

Core subsectors added 75.8 percent

of all jobs over the past 12 months.

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Change in '000s jobs

Strength in the private sector provides first 24-month growth of

more than 5.0 million jobs

Private sector hiring up 5.0

million since September 2012

Public sector hiring down 16,000

workers since September 2012


9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Une

mpl

oym

ent (

%)

Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college

Unemployment for both college and high school grads drops

sharply, with white-collar unemployment at just 2.9 percent…

2.9%

5.3%


10

…but labor force participation in both segments has remained

largely flat and at record lows


11

54.0%

55.0%

56.0%

57.0%

58.0%

59.0%

60.0%

61.0%

62.0%

63.0%

64.0%

70.0%

71.0%

72.0%

73.0%

74.0%

75.0%

76.0%

77.0%

78.0%

79.0%

80.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Hig

h sc

hool

gra

duat

e la

bor

forc

e pa

rtic

ipat

ion

rate

(%

)

Col

lege

gra

duat

e la

bor

forc

e pa

rtic

ipat

ion

rate

(%

)

Bachelor's degree High school, no college

Both goods-producing and service-providing employment are

growing faster, posting notable increases in job creation

-1,000.0

-800.0

-600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

(tho

usan

ds)

Goods-producing Service-providing


12

Improvements in financial activities and information push

office-using gains past energy

-11.0

-9.0

-7.0

-5.0

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm

Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through August 2014.

13

12-m

onth

% c

hang

e (jo

bs)

Tech still leading but slightly slower in line with national

trends, while energy remains up-and-down

Year-on-year percent employment growth


14

Initial unemployment claims continue to fall: 4-week moving

average the past three weeks has been below 300,000

Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor

15

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

Cla

ims

Initial claims 4-week moving average

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

(%)

Con

sum

er c

onfid

ence

inde

x

Consumer confidence index

Unemployment rate

Although consumer confidence dipped slightly to 86.0 points, it

remains high as unemployment continues to fall

Source: JLL Research, Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics

16

Quits are slowly rising as worker sentiment about the job

market slowly grows


17

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Qui

ts (

thou

sand

s)

Sunbelt and Texas remain dominant, with Raleigh-Durham year-

on-year growth at a whopping 4.7 percent


18

Raleigh-Durham

4.7%

Houston

4.0%

Dallas

3.9%

Austin

3.8% Miami

3.5%

San Francisco

3.3%

Some East Coast and Midwestern markets are still posting

job growth below 1.0 percent year-on-year, however

19


Hampton

Roads

0.5%

Washington,

DC

0.6%

Columbus

0.7%

Detroit

0.9%

New Jersey

0.8%

Westchester

County

1.0%

The labor force participation rate stayed flat a recovery low of

62.8 percent, contributing to the decline in unemployment


20

61.0%

62.0%

63.0%

64.0%

65.0%

66.0%

67.0%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Labo

r fo

rce

part

icip

atio

n ra

te (

%)

Total unemployment drops below 12.0 percent for the first

time during the recovery and is now below average

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

Total unemployment U-6 10-year average


21

Solid increases in PBS, financial and information sectors all

pushed up office-using industries’ share of monthly growth


22

Office-using job growth posted highest volume since early 2013,

while revisions push up previous months

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Information Professional and business services Financial activities

PBS represented 75.0 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010.

In July 2014, it represented all 77.1 percent of new office jobs.


23

Temporary help services is still on its way to 3.0 million jobs,

but rate of growth slightly slower and more stable

1,000.0

1,500.0

2,000.0

2,500.0

3,000.0

3,500.0

-100.0

-80.0

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mon

thly

net

cha

nge

in jo

bs (

ths)

Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment

Temporary em

ployment (ths)


24

©2014 JLL Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.

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Managing Director - Americas Research

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Research Analyst

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