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  • LECTURE L07BECOMING INVISIBLE

  • Steve Jobs Apple Special Event 27. January 2010

  • iPad

    The iPad was released April 3rd From January to April there was a lot of discussion about the iPad

    And there were more sceptics than not

  • And how was the response, again?

  • 300,000 iPads were sold on their first day of availability By May 3, 2010, Apple had sold a million iPads

    iPad

  • Inflection Point

  • Shift in Computing

    Where is the C-drive?

    Computer anyone can use

    The computer just disappeared

    Computer you use standing

  • Shifting focus

  • Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation

    TECHNOLOGY CONSUMER

  • Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation

    OBVIOUS INVISIBLE

  • Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation

    ANALYTICAL THINKINGEMOTIONS AND

    FEELINGS

  • User Centred Design

    Don Norman

  • Computers are still pretty complicated technology

  • Consumer Devices

    The Computer and the Internet

    disappear

  • Source: Morgan Stanley Research https://techpinions.com/the-terrible-tablet-tantrum-part-1/30840

    https://techpinions.com/the-terrible-tablet-tantrum-part-1/30840

  • Inflection pointsWhen technology changes business

    Rapid growth starts

    Decline of growth starts

  • Hype Curve

  • Wired Magazine editor (former) Chris Anderson on the Hype Curve and forecasting

  • TheHypeCycle Agraphicrepresentationofthematurity,adoptionandbusinessapplicationofspecifictechnologies

    Peak of inflated Expectations

    Technology TriggerTrough of Disillusionment

    Slope of Enlightenment

    Plateau of Productivity

  • NASDAQJanuary2000

    The Internet Bubble

  • NASDAQJanuary2000

    The Internet Bubble

  • NASDAQJanuary2000

    The Internet Bubble

  • Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides

    GROWTH INTO THE BUBBLE

  • Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides

    GROWTH SINCE THE BUBBLE

  • The Internet Bubble

  • The Railway Bubble

    RailwayStockinBritainThevalueofrailwaystockgrew4foldfrom1826to1846Manycompanies,heavyover-investmentThebubbleburst1846

  • Andersons Grand Unified Theory of Technology Trends

  • Andersons Grand Unified Theory of Predicting the Future

    All important technologies go through four states, or at least four stages, in their lives. Each stage can be seen as a collision, with something else. The stages are:

    1. Critical Price 2. Critical Mass 3. Displace another technology 4. Become nearly free

    Theory of Predicting the Future

  • Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation

    TECHNOLOGY CONSUMER

  • Industrial Design

  • As technology matures, design becomes important

    Industrial Design

  • Technology Adoption Life Cycle

    The talent of the company that made the product in the early days may become wrong when the product matures

    The organisational structure of companies need to change when the company moves from technology to products/services

  • Organisations which design systems ... are constrained to

    produce designs which are copies of the communication structures

    of these organisations

    Conways Law

  • To whom does the designer report to? A programmer?

  • 1983 1997

    Jonathan Ive

  • TECHNOLOGYBUSINESSDESIGN

  • When will the earlymajority pragmaticsstart buying a product?

    The value of the productis sufficiently great orgood-enough

    Technology Life Cycle

  • Earlyinthecycle,technologyisimportant Whentechnologybecomesgoodenough:

    ValuebecomesmoreimportantDesignbecomesmoreimportantTechnologyisnolongerthevariablethatcontrolspurchasesImprovementsloosetheirglamour

    Customersarelookingforthingslikevalueconvenience,productivity,ease-of-use,low-cost,reliability

    Emotions

    Technology Life Cycle

  • Life Cycle of Technology ThemovefromTechnologytoCommodity

    Theneed-satisfactioncurveoftechnology

  • The Market of CommoditiesWhat happens when a market becomes mature? Karaoke Capitalism takes over

    Red oceans All the industries in existence today the known market space Industry boundaries are defined and accepted, and the competitive rules of the game are known

  • Strategy for creating new markets Make the competition irrelevant Blue oceans denote all the industries not in existence todaythe unknown market space, untainted by competition

    Creating Blue Oceans

  • Instead of focusing on beating the competition, you focus on making the competition irrelevant by creating a leap in value for your buyers and your company, thereby opening up new and uncontested market space

    Value Innovation

  • DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY

    Next