l08 becoming invisible

LECTURE L08BECOMING INVISIBLE

Steve Jobs Apple Special Event 27. January 2010

iPad

The iPad was released April 3rd From January to April there was a lot of discussion about the iPad

And there were more sceptics than not

And how was the response, again?

300,000 iPads were sold on their first day of availability By May 3, 2010, Apple had sold a million iPads

iPad

Source: Morgan Stanley Research https://techpinions.com/the-terrible-tablet-tantrum-part-1/30840

https://techpinions.com/the-terrible-tablet-tantrum-part-1/30840

iPad sales 2010-2016

Inflection Point

Inflection pointsWhen technology changes business

Rapid growth starts

Decline of growth starts

Expectations of technology does not look like an S-curve

Hype Curve

Wired Magazine editor (former) Chris Anderson on the Hype Curve and forecasting

TheHypeCycleA graphic representation of the maturity, adoption and business application of specific technologies

Peak of inflated Expectations

Technology TriggerTrough of Disillusionment

Slope of Enlightenment

Plateau of Productivity

Technology Trigger

R&D

Laboratory prototypes

Startup companies - first round of capital funding

On the Rise

Media hype begins

No working prototype

On the Top

This time it’s different

Best invention since sliced

bread

Does not live up to expectations

What do you mean it can’t do that?

Overrated!

Is it over or is there hope?

Nobody want’s this

The undetected rise

This actually works doing what is was supposed all along

Plateau - invisible - disappear

The what?

Hype Cycle 2000

Does this look like a bubble?

NASDAQ January 2000

The Internet Bubble

The Internet Bubble burst

The Internet Bubble

Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides

GROWTH INTO THE BUBBLE

Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides

GROWTH SINCE THE BUBBLE

The Railway Bubble

RailwayStockinBritainThevalueofrailwaystockgrew4foldfrom1826to1846Manycompanies,heavyover-investmentThebubbleburst1846

Inflection Point

Shift in Computing

Where is the C-drive?

Computer anyone can use

The computer just disappeared

Computer you use standing

Tablets are not new

Microsoft released a tablet in 2002

It was not so successful - but why?

The Law of Prevailing Technology

It was too much like desktop computer but with no keyboard and mouse - users felt like it was a crippled system

Technology cramming - it was just a bad computer, not a tablet

Shifting focus

Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation

TECHNOLOGY CONSUMER


OBVIOUS INVISIBLE


ANALYTICAL THINKINGEMOTIONS AND

FEELINGS

Life Cycle of Technology ThemovefromTechnologytoCommodity

Theneed-satisfactioncurveoftechnology

Earlyinthecycle,technologyisimportant Whentechnologybecomesgoodenough:

ValuebecomesmoreimportantDesignbecomesmoreimportantTechnologyisnolongerthevariablethatcontrolspurchasesImprovementsloosetheirglamour

Customersarelookingforthingslikevalueconvenience,productivity,ease-of-use,low-cost,reliability

Emotions

Technology Life Cycle

The Market of CommoditiesWhat happens when a market becomes mature? Karaoke Capitalism takes over

Red oceans All the industries in existence today —the known market space Industry boundaries are defined and accepted, and the competitive rules of the game are known

Strategy for creating new markets Make the competition irrelevant Blue oceans denote all the industries not in existence today—the unknown market space, untainted by competition

Creating Blue Oceans

Instead of focusing on beating the competition, you focus on making the competition irrelevant by creating a leap in value for your buyers and your company, thereby opening up new and uncontested market space

Value Innovation

Industrial Design

As technology matures, design becomes important

Industrial Design

User Centred DesignDon Norman

Technology Adoption Life Cycle

The talent of the company that made the product in the early days may become wrong when the product matures

The organisational structure of companies need to change when the company moves from technology to products/services

Organisations which design systems ... are constrained to

produce designs which are copies of the communication structures

of these organisations

Conway’s Law

To whom does the designer report to? A programmer?

1983 1997

Jonathan Ive

TECHNOLOGYBUSINESSDESIGN

DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY

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