Energy‐Environmental Strategy and CCSエネルギー・環境問題とCCS

Kenji Yamaji山地憲治

Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE)地球環境産業技術研究機構

革新的CO2膜分離技術シンポジウム

＠第一ホテル東京

２０１２年９月２８日

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エネルギー政策の基本目標と福島事故で既存された項目(Fundamental Objectives of Energy Policy and Damaged Items by Fukushima Disaster)

3E

エネルギー安全保障

(Energy Security)

経済性/成長

(Economics/Growth)

環境適合性

(Environment)

+S

安全性（安心？）

(Safety (Trust?))

自然エネルギーの魅力（自然共生）、核融合の魔力（技術の夢）、ピークオイルの説得力（資源制約）

(renewable energies (natural symbiosis),     nuclear fusion (science magic),       peak oil (resource constraints))

（準）国産、自主開発、備蓄、多様化、核燃サイクル、外交、地政学・・・

(domestic resources, upstream investment, reserve, diversification, fuel cycle, diplomacy … )

グリーンイノベーション/成長、システム輸出、総合エネルギー産業・・・

(green innovation/growth, export of systems, energy service co. … )

低炭素社会、ゼロエミッション電源、省エネ、CCS・・・

(low carbon society, zero emission power, energy saving, CCS … )

温暖化のリスク

(risk of global warming)

（温暖化懐疑論）

(skepticism)

放射線のリスク

(risk of radiation exposure)

（低線量被曝の科学の不確実性）

(scientific uncertainty)

＋発電コスト再評価(review of power costs)

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Structure of Climate Change Response Measures

Mitigation

Geo‐engineering

Adaptation

(CCS)

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Ene

rgy-

rela

ted

CO

2em

issi

ons

and

redu

ctio

ns

(GtC

O2/

yr)

Power sector: CCS

Power sector: renewable energies

Power sector: nuclear power

Power sector: efficiency improvement & fuel switching among fossil fuelsOther energy conversion sector

Residential & commercial sector

Transportation sector

Industrial sector: CCS

Industrial sector: efficiency improvement & fuel switchingNet CO2 emission

17%

14%

15%

11%

9%

Baseline emission:57 GtCO2/yr

Halving global emission：

13 GtCO2/yr

1%

5%

16%

12%

Role of CCS in Deep Cut of Global CO2 EmissionSource: K. Yamaji and K. Akimoto: CCS for Global Warming MitigationRITE (ed.), New Development of CCS Technologies, CMC Shuppan, 2011

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Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 (IEA)

66

Importance of Electricity Sector• More than 40% of primary energy is used for power generation• Electricity can be produced from variety of energy resources, notably 

from non carbon resources• CCS can be applied to fossil power plants

• Electricity is clean and efficient in end‐use• Efficient supply of low temp. heat by heat pumps• Prospects for electric vehicle (PHEV,EV)

But,• Difficulty in large and long distance transmission• Stability of supply (voltage, frequency)：→smart grid?• Difficulty for mobile use：→batteries？

7

Impact of Efficiency Improvement of Coal‐fired Power Plants

If best plant in Japan prevailed

Japan

US China

India

1.3 billion ton of CO2 could be reduced in US, China, and India

88

ＣＯ２

ＣＯ２CO2

CO2CO2

TransportSeparation/Capture Injection

Injection

Onshore aquifer

Offshore aquifer

Large scaleemission source

Concept of CCS

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CCS Status： Roadmap

2010 2020 2030

Capture

Storage

Chemical absorption

Membrane

Successive Cost reductionExtended applicable gasses

Capture Cost：4200JPY/tCO2→2000sJPY/ｔCO2

Successive Cost reductionExtended applicable gasses

Pre-combustion 1500JPY/tCO2→1000sJPY/tCO2

Others Successive Cost reductionExtended applicable gasses

Basic researchApplication study

Increase Storage sitesCost reduction

Demonstration

Safety AssessmentConfidence building

● Technology establishment●Full-scaled Implementation

GeologicalStorage

●Technology establishment

10

Nagaoka Project (CO2 Geological Storage)

11

Development of Safety Assessment Technology

BPM: Best Practice Manual, ISO: International Organization for Standardization

Geological Modeling

CO2 Risk AnalysisBPM & ISOBPM & ISOfor Storage and

its Safety Analysis

Environmental Impact Analysis

CO2 Monitoring

History MatchingHistory Matching

Simulation ofCO2 Behavior

Long Term CO2

Behavior Estimation

Simulation of CO2 Leakage

Risk AnalysisRisk Analysis

GeologicalModel

GeologicalModel

Leakage Scenario

Reservoir Evaluation Analysis of CO2 Leakage

Analysis of CO2 Behaviour

Objectives

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Fiscal Year*2008 09 10 11 12 -

METI SubsidizedProject

Demonstration Phase

METI Commissioned Project“Demonstration of CO2 Reduction Technology”

NEDO Commissioned Project

Feasibility Study – CCS Total SystemCO2 capture at IGCC and store at an offshore depleted gas field

Investigation Phase

Development of Assessment Technologiesand Site Screening for Large‐scale CCS Demonstrations

Today

CCS Demonstration Project Phase

1313

Geological Survey at Tomakomai Candidate Site

Survey Well

3D Seismic(2009)

3D Seismic(2010)

5km

Tomakomai City

Survey well (2010)Survey well (2011)

Currently a geological evaluation is being carried out and a basic plan for a large‐scale CCS demonstration is being completed for this site.

International Cooperation of RITE

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November 2012 - Kyoto will welcome experts in greenhouse gas control technologies from across the world!

1. Dates : Sun. 18 – Thur. 22 November, 20122. Venue : Kyoto International Conference Center, Japan3. Organizers : RITE & IEAGHG4. Call for Paper open : Late-September, 2011

Themes are: Capture; Geo Storage; Other Storage; Industrial sources; Transport; Negative CO2; CO2 utilisation options; Demonstration; Tech Assess & Integration; Commercial Issues; Public Perception; Policies; Legal & Regulatory; Education, training, and capacity building

5. On-line Conference RegistrationEarly Bird open: Late-April 2012 / Late on-line registration: Late-July 2012 – November 17th, 2012

6. Programme Overview ( Subject to change)

7. Website http://www.ghgt.info/

GHGT-10 Plenary session

GHGT-10 : Poster session

Sun.Nov. 18 Mon. Nov. 19 Tues. Nov.20 Wed. Nov.21 Thurs. Nov.22

Plenary Session Plenary Session Plenary SessionTechnical Session 4 Technical Session 7 Technical Session 10

Technical Session 1 Technical Session 5 Technical Session 8 Technical Session 11

Technical Session 2 Poster Session　A Poster Session　B Panel Discussion

Technical Session 3 Technical Session 6 Technical Session 9 Closing Session

NightRegistration

and　WelcomeReception

NetworkingReception

Conference Dinner

AM

PM

Welcome and KeynoteAddress

GHGT‐11‐ 11th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies ‐

1616

(being reviewed)

17Kenji Yamaji 120118 17

18Kenji Yamaji 111122, Abu Dhabi 18

Fukushima Disaster on March 11, 2011

Before

After

1919

Power Generation Mix in 2030Targets in current strategic energy plan

Renewables:  20%

Nuclear:          50%

Fossil‐fired:    30%

Impossible after Fukushima

0, 15, 20‐25%? depending on the recovery of public trust on nuclear safety

How to fill the gap of reduced nuclear power?

1. Further energy savings: ambitious targets are incorporated in current strategic energy plan → behavioral change using ICT as well as efficiency improvements

2. More renewables: PV: 53GW and wind power10GW in current strategic energy plan → power system stability issue → smart grid?; more geothermal, more small hydro, more biomass by FIT policy

3.Clean use of fossil fuels: notably natural gas, clean coal incl. CCS, international applications of Japanese efficient technologies

20

0

5

10

15

20

25

07/1

07/4

07/7

07/10

08/1

08/4

08/7

08/10

09/1

09/4

09/7

09/10

10/1

10/4

10/7

10/10

11/1

11/4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

$/MMBTU $/Barrel

Recent Price Trends of Natural Gas and Oil  Source: Japan Gas Association

LNG Price up

After Fukushima

Natural Gas Prices in UK, US, and Japan for 2005‐2012

Japan(CIF)

UK

US

Fukushima

22

A Key for Green Innovation: Smart Energy Network

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Low Carbon Society(renewable energies ・・・)

Smart Community(ICT, internet, sensor network・・・)

Smart House, Smart City(HEMS, BEMS・・・)

Stability of Power System(smart grid, smart meter,smart energy network・・・)

Integrating Supply Side with Demand Side(power grid and automobile integration・・・)

ICT Security(cyber‐terrorism, privacy protection・・・)

New Economic Growth (global standards, systems competitiveness・・・)

Reform of Energy Systems

Scheme of Energy-Information Integration

Energy Saving by behavioral change

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Reconstruction of Energy Policy as well as Climate Change Response Measures

・Keep Nuclear Option: enhanced safety measures, risk communication of low level radiation exposure・・・

・Resilience of Energy System: more integrated energy network, integration of centralized and decentralized energy system with ICT・・・

・Further Energy Saving: behavior change using ICT as well as further energy efficiency improvements・・・

・Maximum Introduction of New Renewables: FIT, using the opportunities of restoration (biomass in debris,  damaged land・・・), smart grid・・・

・Clean Use of Fossil Fuels: natural gas, clean coal（A‐USC、IGCC、CCS）、carbon free H2(brown coal＋CCS), bilateral offset credits・・・

Personal View by K. Yamaji

2525 ⑫

財団法人 地球環境産業技術研究機構Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the EarthURL：http://www.rite.or.jp

Thank you for your attention!Join us on GHGT‐11, in Kyoto, 2012 !

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