Energy‐Environmental Strategy and CCSエネルギー・環境問題とCCS
Kenji Yamaji山地憲治
Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE)地球環境産業技術研究機構
革新的CO2膜分離技術シンポジウム
@第一ホテル東京
2012年9月28日
2
エネルギー政策の基本目標と福島事故で既存された項目(Fundamental Objectives of Energy Policy and Damaged Items by Fukushima Disaster)
3E
エネルギー安全保障
(Energy Security)
経済性/成長
(Economics/Growth)
環境適合性
(Environment)
+S
安全性(安心?)
(Safety (Trust?))
自然エネルギーの魅力(自然共生)、核融合の魔力(技術の夢)、ピークオイルの説得力(資源制約)
(renewable energies (natural symbiosis), nuclear fusion (science magic), peak oil (resource constraints))
(準)国産、自主開発、備蓄、多様化、核燃サイクル、外交、地政学・・・
(domestic resources, upstream investment, reserve, diversification, fuel cycle, diplomacy … )
グリーンイノベーション/成長、システム輸出、総合エネルギー産業・・・
(green innovation/growth, export of systems, energy service co. … )
低炭素社会、ゼロエミッション電源、省エネ、CCS・・・
(low carbon society, zero emission power, energy saving, CCS … )
温暖化のリスク
(risk of global warming)
(温暖化懐疑論)
(skepticism)
放射線のリスク
(risk of radiation exposure)
(低線量被曝の科学の不確実性)
(scientific uncertainty)
+発電コスト再評価(review of power costs)
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ene
rgy-
rela
ted
CO
2em
issi
ons
and
redu
ctio
ns
(GtC
O2/
yr)
Power sector: CCS
Power sector: renewable energies
Power sector: nuclear power
Power sector: efficiency improvement & fuel switching among fossil fuelsOther energy conversion sector
Residential & commercial sector
Transportation sector
Industrial sector: CCS
Industrial sector: efficiency improvement & fuel switchingNet CO2 emission
17%
14%
15%
11%
9%
Baseline emission:57 GtCO2/yr
Halving global emission:
13 GtCO2/yr
1%
5%
16%
12%
Role of CCS in Deep Cut of Global CO2 EmissionSource: K. Yamaji and K. Akimoto: CCS for Global Warming MitigationRITE (ed.), New Development of CCS Technologies, CMC Shuppan, 2011
66
Importance of Electricity Sector• More than 40% of primary energy is used for power generation• Electricity can be produced from variety of energy resources, notably
from non carbon resources• CCS can be applied to fossil power plants
• Electricity is clean and efficient in end‐use• Efficient supply of low temp. heat by heat pumps• Prospects for electric vehicle (PHEV,EV)
But,• Difficulty in large and long distance transmission• Stability of supply (voltage, frequency):→smart grid?• Difficulty for mobile use:→batteries?
7
Impact of Efficiency Improvement of Coal‐fired Power Plants
If best plant in Japan prevailed
Japan
US China
India
1.3 billion ton of CO2 could be reduced in US, China, and India
88
CO2
CO2CO2
CO2CO2
TransportSeparation/Capture Injection
Injection
Onshore aquifer
Offshore aquifer
Large scaleemission source
Concept of CCS
9
CCS Status: Roadmap
2010 2020 2030
Capture
Storage
Chemical absorption
Membrane
Successive Cost reductionExtended applicable gasses
Capture Cost:4200JPY/tCO2→2000sJPY/tCO2
Successive Cost reductionExtended applicable gasses
Pre-combustion 1500JPY/tCO2→1000sJPY/tCO2
Others Successive Cost reductionExtended applicable gasses
Basic researchApplication study
Increase Storage sitesCost reduction
Demonstration
Safety AssessmentConfidence building
● Technology establishment●Full-scaled Implementation
GeologicalStorage
●Technology establishment
11
Development of Safety Assessment Technology
BPM: Best Practice Manual, ISO: International Organization for Standardization
Geological Modeling
CO2 Risk AnalysisBPM & ISOBPM & ISOfor Storage and
its Safety Analysis
Environmental Impact Analysis
CO2 Monitoring
History MatchingHistory Matching
Simulation ofCO2 Behavior
Long Term CO2
Behavior Estimation
Simulation of CO2 Leakage
Risk AnalysisRisk Analysis
GeologicalModel
GeologicalModel
Leakage Scenario
Reservoir Evaluation Analysis of CO2 Leakage
Analysis of CO2 Behaviour
Objectives
1212
Fiscal Year*2008 09 10 11 12 -
METI SubsidizedProject
Demonstration Phase
METI Commissioned Project“Demonstration of CO2 Reduction Technology”
NEDO Commissioned Project
Feasibility Study – CCS Total SystemCO2 capture at IGCC and store at an offshore depleted gas field
Investigation Phase
Development of Assessment Technologiesand Site Screening for Large‐scale CCS Demonstrations
Today
CCS Demonstration Project Phase
1313
Geological Survey at Tomakomai Candidate Site
Survey Well
3D Seismic(2009)
3D Seismic(2010)
5km
Tomakomai City
Survey well (2010)Survey well (2011)
Currently a geological evaluation is being carried out and a basic plan for a large‐scale CCS demonstration is being completed for this site.
15
November 2012 - Kyoto will welcome experts in greenhouse gas control technologies from across the world!
1. Dates : Sun. 18 – Thur. 22 November, 20122. Venue : Kyoto International Conference Center, Japan3. Organizers : RITE & IEAGHG4. Call for Paper open : Late-September, 2011
Themes are: Capture; Geo Storage; Other Storage; Industrial sources; Transport; Negative CO2; CO2 utilisation options; Demonstration; Tech Assess & Integration; Commercial Issues; Public Perception; Policies; Legal & Regulatory; Education, training, and capacity building
5. On-line Conference RegistrationEarly Bird open: Late-April 2012 / Late on-line registration: Late-July 2012 – November 17th, 2012
6. Programme Overview ( Subject to change)
7. Website http://www.ghgt.info/
GHGT-10 Plenary session
GHGT-10 : Poster session
Sun.Nov. 18 Mon. Nov. 19 Tues. Nov.20 Wed. Nov.21 Thurs. Nov.22
Plenary Session Plenary Session Plenary SessionTechnical Session 4 Technical Session 7 Technical Session 10
Technical Session 1 Technical Session 5 Technical Session 8 Technical Session 11
Technical Session 2 Poster Session A Poster Session B Panel Discussion
Technical Session 3 Technical Session 6 Technical Session 9 Closing Session
NightRegistration
and WelcomeReception
NetworkingReception
Conference Dinner
AM
PM
Welcome and KeynoteAddress
GHGT‐11‐ 11th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies ‐
1919
Power Generation Mix in 2030Targets in current strategic energy plan
Renewables: 20%
Nuclear: 50%
Fossil‐fired: 30%
Impossible after Fukushima
0, 15, 20‐25%? depending on the recovery of public trust on nuclear safety
How to fill the gap of reduced nuclear power?
1. Further energy savings: ambitious targets are incorporated in current strategic energy plan → behavioral change using ICT as well as efficiency improvements
2. More renewables: PV: 53GW and wind power10GW in current strategic energy plan → power system stability issue → smart grid?; more geothermal, more small hydro, more biomass by FIT policy
3.Clean use of fossil fuels: notably natural gas, clean coal incl. CCS, international applications of Japanese efficient technologies
20
0
5
10
15
20
25
07/1
07/4
07/7
07/10
08/1
08/4
08/7
08/10
09/1
09/4
09/7
09/10
10/1
10/4
10/7
10/10
11/1
11/4
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
$/MMBTU $/Barrel
Recent Price Trends of Natural Gas and Oil Source: Japan Gas Association
LNG Price up
After Fukushima
23
Low Carbon Society(renewable energies ・・・)
Smart Community(ICT, internet, sensor network・・・)
Smart House, Smart City(HEMS, BEMS・・・)
Stability of Power System(smart grid, smart meter,smart energy network・・・)
Integrating Supply Side with Demand Side(power grid and automobile integration・・・)
ICT Security(cyber‐terrorism, privacy protection・・・)
New Economic Growth (global standards, systems competitiveness・・・)
Reform of Energy Systems
Scheme of Energy-Information Integration
Energy Saving by behavioral change
24
Reconstruction of Energy Policy as well as Climate Change Response Measures
・Keep Nuclear Option: enhanced safety measures, risk communication of low level radiation exposure・・・
・Resilience of Energy System: more integrated energy network, integration of centralized and decentralized energy system with ICT・・・
・Further Energy Saving: behavior change using ICT as well as further energy efficiency improvements・・・
・Maximum Introduction of New Renewables: FIT, using the opportunities of restoration (biomass in debris, damaged land・・・), smart grid・・・
・Clean Use of Fossil Fuels: natural gas, clean coal(A‐USC、IGCC、CCS)、carbon free H2(brown coal+CCS), bilateral offset credits・・・
Personal View by K. Yamaji