decarbonizing the indian energy system until 2050...decarbonizing the indian energy system until...

- 1 -C. von Hirschhausen , T. Burandt, K. Hainsch, K. Löffler, P. Oei

TU Berlin, Workgroup for Economic and Infrastructure Policy (WIP)

Singapore, 20.06.2017

Decarbonizing the Indian Energy System until 2050


40th Annual IAEE International Conference, 20.07.2017

Karlo Hainsch, Hanna Brauers, Konstantin Löffler, Thorsten Burandt,

Pao-Yu Oei, Christian von Hirschhausen

Berlin Institute of Technology, Workgroup for Economic and Infrastructure Policy (WIP), and

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)

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1) The Indian Energy Sector

2) Modeling Approach & Input Data

3) Results

Agenda





India’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)

• 40% non-fossil fuel capacity of installed power capacity by 2030 (~26-30% of

generation; conditional on the provision of resources by industrialised countries)

• Lower GDP emissions intensity by 33-35% by 2030 below 2005 levels (-20-25% by

2020)

• Additional cumulative carbon sink of 2.5-3 GtCO2e through additional forests by 2030

• Current policy developments:

• 175 GW installed renewable energy by 2022 (NDC pledge 100 GW). Despite rapid

expansion not enough to satisfy growing electricity demand

• 100 GW solar capacity by 2022

• Draft Electricity Plan: After 2022 no new coal capacity apart from the one already under

construction (48GW) needed

Sources: Climate Action Tracker (2017b); Central Electricity Authority (2016); Government of India (2015).

India’s NDC is less ambitious than current policies, both pathways

are not in line with the 2°C (or the 1.5°C) target





India – Regional Power Production in 2015

Source: Own Illustration





Coal in India

- Installed coal capacity grew from 71 GW in 2007 to 212 GW in

January 2017 (11% of global capacity)

- Rapid expansion resulted in falling capacity factors

- Leading coal power producers (e.g. Adani) suspended investments

and further development

- Draft Electricity Plan: No new coal capacity needed between

2022-27, apart from the 48 GW already under construction

- India implemented a tax on coal of US$ 3.2/t coal, revenues go to

the National Clean Environment Fund

- China and India together accounted for 86% of total installed

coal power capacity built globally from 2006 through 2016

Sources: Climate Action Tracker (2017b); CoalSwarm (2017); Shearer et al. (2017)

Installed

capacity

Put on hold in

total (end 2016)

Previously under

construction put on hold

Cancelled

during 2016

Pre-

construction

Active

construction

212 82 13 115 129 48

Coal capacities as of January 2017, in GW.







3) Results

Agenda





Our Model Setup





Illustration of the 10 global Regions

Source: Own illustration, base on: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/06/CallingCodesWorld-Labeled.svg/





Modeling Approach & Input Data

Key Data

• A total of 10 regions is being considered.

• The years 2020 - 2050 are modeled in 5-year steps, with 2015 as a baseline.

• Existing capacities in 2015 are included as residual capacities in our model.

• Demands are fixed and based on IEA 450ppm (World Energy Outlook 2015) datasets.

Source: Own Illustration, based on Gulagi, et al. (2017)





Region Population GDP (mln USD) Potential Solar (GW) Potential Wind (GW)

Potential Wind

Offshore (GW) Potential Hydropower (GW)

Central-East 145,0622 128800 500 0 0 0,823

Central-South 148,1693 510000 1135 955 13,99 11,026

Central-West 144,6984 432200 2069 555 40,57 6,561

East 150,986 198000 275,9 154 0 10,126

North 31,98256 67000 723,5 0 0 51,091

North-East 151,111 55400 1000 5 0 58,971

North-West 216,2145 219000 1705 394 0 3,706119

South 115,6694 323500 391 309 73,79 5,432

UP 157,9468 184000 300 2 0 0,723

West 48,72894 277520 3095,5 359 60,65 2,9

Regional Data – Population, GDP, RES Potentials

Source: Gulagi, et al. (2017), CEA (2016)





India - Demands

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Gp

km

Passenger Transport Freight Transport

Power & process heat demands more than triple between 2015 and 2050.

Overall heavy increase of energy demands over the years.

Scenario with 1/3rd of the projected growth is being considered.





Investment cost assumptions for selected technologies

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Biomass Wind Onshore Wind Offshore Solar PV Battery 4 hours Battery 8 hours Power to Gas







3) Results

Agenda





450ppm Scenario

Model Results:

450 ppm Scenario





450ppm – Development of Power Production

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450ppm – Heat low

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Heatpump

Oil

Coal






450ppm – Heat high

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Electric Furnace

Gas

Oil

Coal






100% Renewables Scenario

Model Results:

100% Renewables Scenario





100% RES - Development of Power Generation


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Scenario Results: 1/3rd demand growth, Power Sector

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h





100% Renewables – Heat low

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100% Renewables – Heat high

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H2

Electric Furnace

Gas

Oil

Coal






100% Renewables - Development of Freight Transportation


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Rail ELC

Road Conv

Road Bio

Road H2

Ship Conv

Ship Bio





India – Power Production per Timeslice w/ Storages


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IntermediateDay

IntermediateNight

Summer Day Summer Night Winter Day Winter Night

TWh





India – Regional Power Production in 2050






Installed Capacity in 2050






Trade Between Regions in 2050






Conclusion of our Model Results

• Even in the 450ppm and new policies scenarios, fossil fuels are faced out and replaced by

renewable energy sources (89% of the energy system is decarbonized).

• An Indian energy system based on 100% renewable energy sources is technically possible and

can be achieved with low cost; this is due to renewables becoming more and more competitive, as

well as cheap storages being more available.

• Whereas storages cover the variability of the RES in the 100% scenario, a baseline of power is

supplied by fossil fuels in the more conservative scenarios.

• In all scenarios, coal is the last fossil energy carrier that is used. The peak of power production by

coal is around 2025.

• Solar PV poses the backbone of the Indian power system, with a heavy increase in installed

capacity as early as 2030.





Back-Up Slides





• Capacity Adequacy

Model Equations

𝑚

𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑂𝑓𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑙,𝑚,𝑟,𝑡,𝑦 = 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑟,𝑡,𝑦

∗ 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑙,𝑟,𝑡,𝑦∗ 𝐴𝑣𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑟,𝑡,𝑦∗ 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑇𝑜𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑈𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑟,𝑡∀ 𝑦 ∈ 𝑌, 𝑟 ∈ 𝑅, 𝑙 ∈ 𝐿, 𝑡 ∈ 𝑇

𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑂𝑓𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝐵𝑦𝑇𝑒𝑐ℎ𝑛𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑦𝐵𝑦𝑀𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑓,𝑙,𝑚,𝑟,𝑡,𝑦 = 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑂𝑓𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑙,𝑚,𝑟,𝑡,𝑦∗ 𝑂𝑢𝑝𝑢𝑡𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑓,𝑚,𝑟,𝑡,𝑦∀ 𝑓 ∈ 𝐹, 𝑙 ∈ 𝐿,𝑚 ∈ 𝑀∀ 𝑟 ∈ 𝑅, 𝑡 ∈ 𝑇, 𝑦 ∈ 𝑌





• Investment Function

𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑟,𝑡,𝑦 = 𝑅𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑑𝑢𝑎𝑙𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑟,𝑡,𝑦

+

𝑦𝑦

𝑁𝑒𝑤𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑟,𝑡,𝑦𝑦

∀ 𝑟 ∈ 𝑅, 𝑡 ∈ 𝑇, 𝑦 ∈ 𝑌

𝑦𝑦 = 𝑦 ∈ 𝑌: 𝑦𝑦 > 𝑂𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙𝐿𝑖𝑓𝑒𝑟,𝑡 − 𝑦 ˄ 𝑦𝑦 ≥ 𝑦 ∀ 𝑟 ∈ 𝑅, 𝑡 ∈ 𝑇

• Trade Costs

𝑓

𝑟𝑟∈𝑅

𝐼𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑓,𝑙,𝑟,𝑟𝑟,𝑦 ∗ 𝑇𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑒𝑅𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑒𝑓,𝑟,𝑟𝑟,𝑦 ∗ 𝑇𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑒𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑠𝑓,𝑟,𝑟𝑟 = 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑇𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑒𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑠𝑙,𝑟,𝑦

∀ 𝑙 ∈ 𝐿, 𝑟 ∈ 𝑅, 𝑦 ∈ 𝑌

Model Equations – Investment and Trade Costs





2050 Global Costs of Power Generation per Technology in

cents/kWh – Avarage of 3.88 cents





CEA (2016): Status of Hydro Electric Potential Development; Central Electricity

Authority of India (CEA)

Cleveland, C.J., Morris, C. (Hrsg.) (2013a): Handbook of energy. Vol. 1: Diagrams,

charts, and tables; Amsterdam: Elsevier.

Delucchi, M.A., Jacobson, M.Z., Bauer, Z.A.F., Goodman, S., Chapman, W. (2016):

100% wind, water, and solar roadmaps.

EIA (2012): Combined heat and power technology fills an important energy niche -

Today in Energy - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA); Washington,

D.C., USA, last accessed 30.07.2016 at

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=8250.

EIA (2016b): International Energy Outlook 2016 - With Projections to 2040; Energy

Outlook, Washington, D.C., USA, last accessed 16.07.2016 at

www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/pdf/0484(2016).pdf.

Fraunhofer ISE (2015): Current and Future Cost of Photovoltaics. Long-term

Scenarios for Market Development, System Prices and LCOE of Utility-Scale PV

Systems.

Selected References





Hohmeyer, O.H., Bohm, S. (2015): Trends toward 100% renewable electricity supply

in Germany and Europe: a paradigm shift in energy policies: Trends toward 100%

renewable electricity supply in Germany and Europe; in: Wiley Interdisciplinary

Reviews: Energy and Environment, Vol. 4, No. 1, pp. 74–97.

Howells, M., Rogner, H., Strachan, N., Heaps, C., Huntington, H., Kypreos, S.,

Hughes, A., Silveira, S., DeCarolis, J., Bazillian, M., Roehrl, A. (2011): OSeMOSYS:

The Open Source Energy Modeling System: An introduction to its ethos,

structure and development; in: Energy Policy, Sustainability of biofuels, Vol. 39,

No. 10, pp. 5850–5870.

IEA (2009): Transport, Energy and CO2; Moving Towards Sustainability, Paris,

France, last accessed 03.10.2016 at Transport, Energy and CO2.

IPCC (2014a): Climate change 2014: mitigation of climate change: Working Group III

contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change; New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.

Selected References

decarbonizing the indian energy system until 2050...decarbonizing the indian energy system until...

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