development of comprehensive techniques for coastal site characterisation: part...

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Copyright©20xxbyASME

Proceedings of The 13th International Conference on Environmental Remediation and Radioactive Waste Management

ICEM2010October 3-7, 2010, Tsukuba, Japan

Tadafumi NiizatoJapan Atomic Energy AgencyHoronobe, Hokkaido, Japan

Kenji AmanoJapan Atomic Energy AgencyHoronobe, Hokkaido, Japan

Kunio OtaJapan Atomic Energy Agency

Tokai, Ibaraki, Japan

Takanori KunimaruJapan Atomic Energy Agency

Mizunami, Gifu, Japan

Bill LanyonNagra

Wettingen, Switzerland

W. Russell AlexanderBedrock GeosciencesAuenstein, Switzerland

DEVELOPMENT OF COMPREHENSIVE TECHNIQUES FOR COASTAL SITE CHRACTERISATION (3) CONCEPTUALISATION OF LONG-TERM GEOSPHERE

EVOLUTION

ABSTRACTAcritical issueforbuildingconfidence in the long-term

safetyofgeologicaldisposalistodemonstratethestabilityofthegeosphere, takingintoaccountits likelyfutureevolution.Anongoingcollaborativeprogrammeaimstoestablishcom-prehensivetechniquesforcharacterisingtheoverallevolutionofcoastalsites throughstudying thepalaeohydrogeologicalevolution in thecoastal systemaround theHoronobearea,Hokkaido,northernJapan.Informationonnaturaleventsandprocessesrelatedtothepalaeohydrogelogicalevolutionoftheareahavebeen integrated into thechronological tablesandconceptualmodelsthat indicatesthetemporalandspatialse-quencesoftheeventsandprocesses,suchasclimaticandsea-levelchanges,palaeogeography,andgeomorphologicalandgeologicalevolutioninthearea.Themethodologyforconcep-tualisationofthegeosphereevolutionwillbeappliedtootheranalogouscoastalareasonJapan’swesternseaboard topro-ducecomprehensivetechniquestosupportunderstandingthegeosphereevolutionofpotentialcoastalsitesfordeepgeologi-calrepositories.

Keywords:Geologicaldisposalofradioactivewaste,long-termgeosphereevolution,palaeohydrogeology,coastalsite,Japan,Horonobe

INTRODUCTIONAcritical issueforbuildingconfidence in the long-term

safetyofgeologicaldisposalistodemonstratethestabilityofthegeosphere, takingintoaccountits likelyfutureevolution.This stability is broadly defined as the persistence of Thermal-Hydrological-Mechanical-Chemical conditions consideredfavourableforthelong-termsafetyofageologicalrepository[�].Thegeosphere isslowly,butconstantly,evolvingsothatstability, in thiscase,doesnot implythatsteady-statecondi-tionsexist.Stability,intermsofdeepdisposal,meansthatanychanges will not significantly impact on the long-term safety of therepository.

Ingeneral,anunderstandingofthesiteevolutionisgainedbystudyingthepalaeohydrogeologicalevolutionof thearea,defining temporal and spatial changes of various characteris-tics,events,andprocessesovergeological time[2].Thesitepalaeohydrogeologyreferstonaturaleventsandprocessesthathaveoccurredinthepastandcontributedtothepresentstateofthegeosphere,whichincludesub-surfaceprocesses(e.g.crus-talmovement,diagenesis,etc.)andearth-surfaceprocesses(e.g.climaticandsea-levelchanges,geomorphologicalprocesses,etc.).Anunderstandingofthepalaeohydrogeologicalevolutionof the site provides the firm foundation to describe the likely futureevolutionofthesite.

Inthisstudy(seealso[3-4]),thecurrentstatusforthecon-ceptualisationofthelong-termgeosphereevolutionofcoastalsitesonthewesternseaboardofJapanisbasedondatafromtheHoronobeUndergroundResearchLaboratory(Horonobe

Proceedings of the ASME 13th International Conference on Environmental Remediation and Radioactive Waste Management

ICEM2010 October 3-7, 2010, Tsukuba, Japan

ICEM2010-40052

Copyright © 2010 by ASME

2


URL;Fig.�)projectof the JapanAtomicEnergyAgency(JAEA). This corresponds to the first to third steps of a geo-synthesismethodologyfortheunderstandingofthegeosphereevolutioninapotentialrepositorysitewhichisdescribedelse-whereintheseproceedings[4].

TheHoronobeURLprojectisagenericprojectconductedbyJAEAtoenhanceconfidencein thereliabilityofkeydis-posal technologyby investigationsof,andwithin, thedeepgeologicalenvironmentof thesedimentaryformationsin theHoronobearea,Hokkaido,northernJapan(see[6],fordetails).Theprojectisproceedinginthreeoverlappingphases,“PhaseI:Surface-basedinvestigation”,“PhaseII:Construction”,and“PhaseIII:Operation”,extendingoveraperiodofabout20years[6].Thefollowinggeoscientific information ismainlybasedontheresultsofthePhaseIinvestigationoftheproject.

NATURAL EVENTS AND PROCESSESThePhaseIinvestigationsforthegeosphereevolutionhave

beenperformedbytheapplicationofageosynthesismethodol-ogy with the development of geosynthesis data flow diagrams [4, 6-8]. The geoscientific data have currently been synthesized intooneconceptualmodelforalikelyfutureevolutionoftheHoronobeareaover the time-scaleof theglacial-interglacialcycles(ca.�00k.y.).Thistemporalscalewaschosenasitmarksthe likely last significant change to the palaeohydrogeology of thearea,beginningfromthemostrecentsea-levelminimum(e.g.LastGlacialMaximum)whichwouldhaveled toasig-nificant change to the salinity of the Sea of Japan (see discus-sionbelow).Asnoted inAmanoetal. [3]andOtaetal. [4],

Figure 1. Present Geography of Northern Hokkaido Shaded relief map is after [5].

theconstantlychangingsea-leveloftheSeaofJapanoverthisperiod would have had a significant impact on the site hydroge-ology, impacting both groundwater fluxes and hydrochemistry. Changesinhydrogeologicalheads,assea-levelroseandfell,would impact flow across the study area just as sea-level would directly impact the chemistry of the infiltrating surface waters, changingfromfreshtosalinetofreshasthesealevelroseandfell.

Groundwater flow simulation and particle-tracking analyses implythat,apartfromshallowwaterlessthanca.75mdeep,thegroundwaterresidencetimewouldbeintheorderofafewmillionsofyears[8].Thisissupportedbyhydrochemicalstud-ieswhichindicate that thedeepNa-Cl-HCO3dominant typegroundwaterisinferredtobeoffossilseawateroriginbasedonisotopicsignaturesandthegroundwaterageestimatedbyHeandClradioisotopesisolderthan�.5Ma([6],[9]).Therefore,geoscientific informationshouldbecollectedin theorderofmillionsofyearsforthedescriptionofthegeosphereevolutionintheHoronobearea.

Physical Geography in the Horonobe AreaTheHoronobearea is situated in theeasternpartof the

TenpokuSedimentaryBasin(e.g.[�0])anditsgeologyisdomi-natedbyNeogenetoQuaternarysedimentarysequences.Thesite lithostratigraphy, inascendingorder,consistsof theSoya(alternatingbedsofconglomerate,sandstone,andmudstone,intercalatedwithcoalseams),Onishibetsu(sandstoneinterca-latedwithconglomerateandmudstone),Masuporo(alternating

Figure 2. Geological Map of Northern Hokkaido This map is partly modified from [14].


3


bedsofconglomerate, sandstone,andmudstone),Wakkanai(diatomaceousandsiliceousshale),Koetoi(diatomaceousandsiliceouspebblymudstone),Yuchi (fine- tomedium-grainedsandstone),andSarabetsu(alternatingbedsofconglomerate,sandstone,andmudstone,intercalatedwithcoalseams)Forma-tions,(e.g.[��-�4];Fig.2).Theseformationsareunconform-ablyoverlainbyterracedeposits,alluvium,andlagoonaldepos-its(unconsolidateddepositsofgravel,sand,andmud).Thefoldandthrustsystemwithin thebasinhasanorth tosouth trendandawestwardvergence(e.g.[�5]).Intheareacurrentlyabovesea-level, the basin has two main faults and one main fault zone called(fromeast towest) theHoronobeandOmagariFaults,andSarobetsuFaultZone, respectively([��], [�6]).Of thesefaults,thecurrentlyactivestructureistheSarabetsuFaultZonewith deep-seated and ramp-flat geometry of low-angle thrusts (i.e.detachments).Inaddition,existingstudies(marineseismicandgeologicalsurveys)indicatethatthreemajorfaultandfoldsystemswithnorthtosouthtrendarelocatedtothewestoftheHoronobearea(SeaofJapan)[�7].Thegrowthstructuresofthefold-and-thrustbeltofnorthernHokkaido,indicatedbyseismicreflectionprofiles,suggest that theongoingEWcompressivetectonics (neotectonics) in thewesternpartof theHoronobeareabeganintheLatePliocene(Tables�and2).Itcanbealsopointedout that thepresentgeomorphologicaldistributionofuplandsand lowlands reflects thegeological structuresandlithologiesofthearea(Figs.�and2).

Basedonstratigraphicandsedimentalogicalanalyses, the

structuraldevelopmentoftheregionhasresultedinwestwardmigrationofthedepositionalareaintheTenpokuBasin([��],[�8]). Inaddition, thedistributionofmicro-earthquakehypo-centers,activestructure locations,andQuaternarysedimentsindicatesthat,atpresent,activetectonicsareconcentratedinthewesternpartoftheHoronobearea[��].

Theareahasawidespreaddistributionofmarineterracede-posits,whicharecorrelatedtothemarineoxygenisotopestages(MIS)7through5.5.Column5ofTable�showsthepalaeoge-ographyofthearea,fromMIS5.5(ca.�25ka)tothepresent,onthebasisoftheageanddistributionofthesedeposits,globalsea-levelchanges,andsea-floor topography[��].Theformershorelinesof interglacialstages(e.g.MIS5.5)haveextendedca.�2kmlandwardfromthatatpresentshoreline.Incontrast,shorelinesofglacialstages(e.g.MIS2)wereuptoca.50kmfurther seaward.This extensivemigrationof the shorelinecausedbyglacial-interglacialcyclesisattributedtothegentleslope of sea-floor topography to the west of the Horonobe area.

Additionally,keynaturalphenomenawhichhavepotentialimpacts on geosphere evolution can be identified and these in-clude:

-Distributionoffossilperiglacialwedges,suggestingthatnorthernHokkaidowaslocatedatthenorthernmarginofthe discontinuous permafrost zone during the maximum coldstageoftheLastGlacialStage[�9].

-Therelationshipbetweengeologyandgeomorphology(hillmorphology,drainagepattern,etc.)suggeststhatgeomor-phologicalprocessesaredifferentforeachgeologicalfor-mation[6].

-Changesinporosityofthesedimentaryformationsduetoconsolidationduringburialhavealsochangedtheirhy-draulicconductivityandmass transportproperties.Thisphenomenonwillproceedonatimeframeoftensofthou-sandstomillionsofyears.

TwoperiodsofmountainglacierdevelopmentarereportedinthemountainrangeofHokkaidoatca.50-40and20-�0kabasedongeomorphologicalevidence([20];Table�).However,intheHoronobearea,thereisnogeomorphologicalevidenceofpast glacial influence.

Palaeogeography of the Sea of JapanBasedon themicrofossilbiochronology,agesof igneous

rocks,palaeobathymetryestimatedfromthebenthicforaminif-eralandthemolluscanassemblages,andtheregionalcorrela-tionof theterrestrialandmarinesediments, thenorthernpartoftheSeaofJapanhadbeenconnectedtootherseas[23],suchas the Pacific Ocean, where the cold current could flow into the SeabetweenearlyLateMiocene(ca.�0Ma)and3.5Ma[24].BasedonthepalaeogeographicmapofIijimaandTada[23],theTsushimaStraitwouldappeartohavebeenabovesealeveldur-ingthesameperiod.

Currently, the Tsushima Warm Current flows into the Sea of JapanthroughtheTsushimaStraitwithca.�30mwaterdepth

125˚ E 135˚ E 145˚ E

35˚N

45˚N

55˚N

Hokkaido

Korea

Mamiya Strait(ca. -15 m)

Soya Strait(ca. -55 m)

Tsugaru Strait(ca. -130 m)

Tsushima Strait

(ca. -130 m)

Tokyo

Tsushima CurrentKuroshio CurrentOyashio Current

Kyoto

Sea of Japan Pafic

Ocean

Sea of

Okhotsk

-10,000-8,000-6,000-4,000-2,000-1,000-200-1000land

Wat

er d

epth

1

2

3

123

Figure 3. Present Geography and Surface Ocean Currents around Sea of Japan

Bathymetric data and generalized oceanic currents are after [21] and [22], respectively.


4


inthepresenthighstandconditions(Fig.3).Thiscompareswithpastglacial lowstandsofup to -�50±�0mover the last500k.y.(e.g. [25])when thestraitssurrounding theSeaofJapanemergedabovesealevelandtheSeabecamealmost isolated.Atthispoint,thesalinityofthesurfaceseawater(mixedlayer;ca.�50to200mdeep)oftherestrictedSeaofJapanprobablydecreasedduetoexcessinputoffreshwateroverevaporationandlimitedre-supplyofsalinewaterthroughthestraits[26-27].

Estimatedsalinityof thesurfaceseawaterduring the lastglacialperiodisca.28‰,assumingthesalinityofthesurfacewaterwas thesameaspresent(34‰)andthe injectedfreshwaterwas-�5‰[26].TheisolationoftheSeaoccurredperiod-icallyduringtheglacialperiods,atleastsince800ka[27]andit ispossible that theSeabecameevenfresherduringMIS�0andMIS�2 (ca.340kaand434ka, respectively)whensealevelsdroppedto-�50±�0maroundtheworld[25].Notethatsea-levelshigherthanpresenthavealsobeenreported(seere-views[28-29])with+7±4matMIS5.5andupto+20mduringMIS��.3(ca.406ka).AlloftheinformationdescribedaboveissummarisedinTable�(forthepast�30k.y.)andTable2(forthepast2.6m.y.).

CONCEPTUALISATIONInformationonnaturaleventsandprocesseshasbeeninte-

gratedintoachronologicalconceptualmodelwhichindicatesspace-timesequencesof theeventsandprocesses in theareaovergeological time.Spatial scale for theconceptualisationisca.�00kmintheEast-WestdirectionthroughthelocationsoftheURLandoftheboreholeinvestigationsonthecoast intheHoronobearea.Temporalconceptualisationsover the lastseveralhundredthousandyearsfocusedonthechangescausedbyearth-surfaceprocessesthroughtheglacial-interglacialcycleandover thelastfewmillionyearsarefocusedonthespatialandtemporalchangesofthegeospherecausedbysub-surfaceprocesses.Regarding theconceptualisation in thefuturegla-cialperiod(Fig.4), itassumes thatfuturenaturaleventsandprocesseswillbehavemuchastheydidinthepast.Fromtheviewpointoftheevolutionoftheregionalhydrochemistry,theHoronobeareaisdividedintothreesub-areas(sea,coastal,andhillareas:Fig.4).Themainchangetothesesub-areasoverthelast2�4kahasbeentheoscillationofthepositionofthecoastinresponsetosea-levelchanges.Clearly,thebiggestimpactofthisoscillationwillbechangesinthechemistry(frommarinetofresh and back) of the infiltrating surface waters [3].

Atopographicallydrivengroundwater flowwouldbeex-pectedsince�.5±0.�Ma(Fig.5),whenthepresentlocationoftheSoyaHillwasconsideredtohavebeenatareasonablyhighaltitudebasedonaprovenanceanalysisoftheSarabetsuForma-tion[��].

DESCRIPTION OF UNCERTAINTIESInbuildingpalaeohydrogeologicalmodels,itmustbeunder-

stoodthatdata(andconceptualisation)uncertaintieshavetobe

Sarabetsu Fm.

Yuchi Fm.

Koetoi Fm.

Wakkanai Fm.

Shoreline

<Sea area> <Coastal area> <Hill area>

EastWest

Direction of groundwater flow

Active fault

Low activityfault

Sarobetsu Lowland

Sarobetsu Anticline

Hokushin

Sea level

Present

FaultFault

Sea level

Fault Fault

Sea level

PermafrostWeathering

Sea-level change

Fracture Fracture

Uplift

Permafrost

Weathering

Sea level

Denudation(sedimentation)

Uplift

Climate

Regional uplift

Future glacial period

past glacial period e.g. MIS 2

past interglacialperiod, e.g. MIS5.5

Tim

e

Figure 4. Conceptualisation for the Hydrogeological Evolution in the Horonobe Area through the Glacial-

interglacial CycleThe natural phenomena underlined in figure are those considered

important for developing the geosphere evolution in the area.

consideredindetail(cf.[32]).Whatisperhapsdifferentfrommost scientific analysis is that the uncertainty in palaeohydro-geologymustbeconsideredin4-dimensionalspace.TherearealsodifferencesbetweenthedegreeofuncertaintyindatafortheSeaofJapanareawhencompared to theHoronobearea.First,thedatadensityismuchgreateraroundHoronobeandsoconceptualuncertaintyisgenerallymuchless.Second,thecon-fidence in the data around Horonobe is generally greater as the programmehasfollowedastate-of-the-artQMS(qualityman-agement system; e.g. [33]) whereas it is often difficult to assess thequalityofdatafortheSeaofJapan,especiallyforolderaca-demicpublications.Asanexample,theparametersbuildingthis4-DvolumefortheSeaofJapanwouldinclude:

-Inhomogeneousnatureofspatialdistributionofupliftandsubsidence

-Variationsintherateofupliftandsubsidence-Heightofmountainrangeinthepastperiod-Rechargerate-Changesinporosityandhydraulicconductivityovergeo-

logicaltime-Uncertaintiesaboutsea-levelsintheSeaofJapan-Uncertaintiesabout locationofformershorelinethrough

thepastglacial-interglacialcycles-Variations inseawaterchemistry(especiallysalinityand


5

Horo

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are

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ca. 5,000 years ago；Coastal sand dunes in the Sarobetsu Lowland(Kitazawa [54])ca. 1,900 to 670 years ago; southward migration of the river mouth of Teshio River (Kitazawa & Tokiwa [55])

Land

　Se

aHo

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be T

own

Fig.

Pre

sent

geo

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be

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140o E

135o E

Fig.

Pre

sent

tect

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setti

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and

aro

und

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vel

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ei &

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7]）

ka

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(Gibbard & Kolfschoten [36]Umitsu [37]

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Atlantic (Hypsithermal

interval)

144°

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Hokk

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140°

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50°N

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alin

Horo

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48°N

52°N

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Fig.

Veg

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of th

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laci

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ashi

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: -75

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pea

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er in

the

Horo

nobe

are

a *N

iizat

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48]

< 42

to 1

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tinuo

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rost

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ther

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rt of

Ho

kkai

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ra &

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kawa

[1

9])

Deve

lopm

ent o

f di

scon

tinuo

uspe

rmaf

rost

with

ca.

20

m in

thick

ness

in

Hor

onob

e ar

ea

(Niiz

ato

et a

l. [1

1])

Kenb

uchi

Bas

in:i

ncre

ase

in D

ahur

ian

larc

h an

d de

crea

se o

f Sak

halin

fir

(Igar

ashi

et a

l. [4

1])

Horo

nobe

: dec

reas

e in

the

num

bers

of D

ahur

ian la

rch

and

subs

tant

ial in

crea

se o

f Be

tula

(ca.

12k

a; N

iizat

oet

al. [

48])

Kenb

uchi

Bas

in:

Sign

ifican

t dro

p in

the

num

bers

of D

ahur

ian

larc

h an

d Si

beria

n pi

ne

(Igar

ashi

et a

l. [4

1])

Horo

nobe

:Ste

ppe

with

Da

huria

n la

rch(

14 to

13

ka;N

iizat

o et

al.

[48]

)

Kenb

uchi

Bas

in: S

tepp

e wi

th o

pen

Sibe

rian

dwar

f pi

ne fo

rest

(25

to 1

6 ka

;Ig

aras

hi e

t al.

[41]

)

< M

IS5.

5 >

Ishi

kari

Plai

n: C

ool

tem

pera

te fo

rest

of

Oak

, elm

, and

wal

nut

(war

mer

and

wet

ter

cond

ition

than

pre

sent

;Ig

aras

hi [5

2])

Pan-

mixe

d fo

rest

(mos

aic-

like

mixe

d fo

rest

with

br

oad-

leaf

ed a

nd c

onife

r-ou

s tre

es; I

gara

shi [

49])

Late Weichselian Middle Weichselian

Alle

rød

Bøllin

g

Youn

ger

Drya

s

Old

est

Drya

s

Old

erDr

yas

Downward erosion by river: 0.3 to 0.8 m/k.y. (Depth of dissection valley on MIS5.5 marine terrace by geomorphometry)

Sedimentation rate: 6.6 m/k.y. (Sedimentation curve after LGM in the Sarobetsu Lowland) (Horonobe-Rise [53])

Denudation rate : 0.17 to 0.66m/k.y. in the past 1.3 m.y. (Present altitude of the past marine sediment (Wakkanai Fm. & Koetoi Fm. ;Ota et al. [6])*Hokushin district have been an land area since 1.3 Ma (Niizato et al. [11])

East

-Wes

t co

mpr

es-

sive

stre

ss o

btai

ned

by b

oreh

ole

surv

ey

and

GPS

mea

sure

-m

ent(

Ota

et a

l. [6

])

Activity of Sarobetsu Fault Zone in the coastal zone of Horonobe area. Average rate of slip: over 0.7m/k.y., Recurrence interval: 4 to 8 k.y. (The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion [16]).

Subsidence rate: same as sedimentation rate after LGM ? (Sarobetsu Lowland)

The

tect

onic

belt

of e

aste

rn m

argi

n of

Ja

pan

Sea

(Tai

ra [5

6])

LGM

East

-Wes

t com

pres

sive

stre

ss

caus

ed b

y in

tera

ctio

n be

twee

n Am

uria

n an

d O

khot

sk P

late

s sin

ce 2

.3 M

a. (T

aira

[56]

)

Ishi

kari

Tect

onic

zone

s I a

nd V

I(O

ka &

Igar

ashi

[13]

)

Uplift rate: 0.3 m/k.y. based on the altitude & age of MIS5.5 marine terrace (Ota et al. [6])

Tabl

e 1.

Nat

ural

Eve

nts

and

Proc

esse

s in

the

Coas

tal F

ield

in th

e Ho

rono

be A

rea,

Hok

kaid

o, J

apan

sin

ce 1

30 k

a

L

GM

; Las

t Gla

cial M

axim

um, L

IG; L

ast I

nter

glac

ial.

< 85

to 2

0 ka

>No

inflo

w of

war

m T

suhi

ma

Curre

nt in

to S

ea o

f Ja

pan

(Oba

et a

l. [2

6])

Age

Pres

ent

5 ~

7.8

(ca.

7 in

Ja

pan)

ca. 1

0

ca.1

0

~ 1

1

ca.1

1

~ 11

.8

ca.1

1.8

~

12.1

ca.1

2　

~ 1

3

ca.2

0

ca.1

5

30 42

ca.7

0

~ 11

0

ca.1

10

~13

0

Clim

ate

Sea-

leve

l (m

eter

to th

e pr

esen

t)Cl

imat

ic co

nditio

nVe

geta

tion

Perm

afro

st &

pe

rigla

cial

envir

onm

ent

Glo

bal-s

cale

Sea

-leve

lHo

kkai

do

Present sea-level = 0 m

Sea-levelcurve

(Gibbard & Kolfschoten [36];Umitsu [37])

(Miller et al.,[40])

Glacial -interglacial cycle

(Umitsu [37] Machida,et al. [39])

Pollen zone of northern Europe


6

Clim

atic

and

geol

ogica

leve

nts

and

proc

esse

sPa

laeog

eogr

aphy

Sedim

enta

tion

/Den

udat

ionTe

ctonic

sUp

lift/S

ubsid

ence

Age/

Epoc

hCl

imat

e

(Oxg

en is

otop

ic-ba

sed

sea-

leve

l est

imat

e;

Mille

r et a

l. [4

0])

Glo

bal-s

cale

Old

uvai

Gau

ss

33.

54

4.5

5

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

JaramilloMatsuyamaBrunhes

MIS

labe

l‘Ta

rant

ian’

‘Ioni

an’

Cala

bria

n

Gel

asia

n

Inter

natio

nal

Comm

ission

on

Stra

tigra

phy

[42]

Pleistocene

ka

Plio

cene

Piac

enzia

n

-100

Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT)Mid-Brunhes Event (MBE)

41-k.y. obliquity cycles of glacial and interglacial (since ca. 2.8 Ma)100-k.y. high-amplitude cycles of glacial and interglacial

Deve

lopm

ent o

f NNW

-SSE

tre

nding

trou

ghs a

nd ri

dges

dur

ing

the

depo

sition

al pe

riod

of W

akka

nai

Fm. (

and

Koet

oi Fm

.?) d

ue to

the

displa

cem

ent o

f Om

agar

i and

Ho

rono

be F

aults

(Fuk

usaw

a [1

2]).

2.3

Ma

Yasu

e et

al.[

66]

Denudation of diatomaceous mudstone (Koetoi Fm.) and siliceous mudstone (Wakkanai Fm.) in the western part of Soya Hill (Niizato et al. [11])

cent

re o

f Hor

onob

e

Uplift rate: 0.17 to 0.66m/k.y. in the past 1.3 m.y., based on the present altitude of the past marine sediment (Wakkanai & Koetoi Fm.;Ota et al. [6])

Denudation rate = Uplift rate: 0.17 to 0.66m/k.y. in the past 1.3 m.y. (Ota et al. [6])

Depth of the lower limit of Sarabetsu Fm.: 625 m (The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion [16])to 800 m (Oka& Igarashi [13])

Subsidence rate: 0.65m/k.y. in the past 1.7 m.y. (Oka & Igarashi [13])

Wastward migration of a depositional area of Sarabetsu Fm. (Yasue et al. [18] & Niizato et al. [11])

Hokushin

Hokushin

Toikanbetsu

SarobetsuLowland

SarobetsuLowland

Lago

onal

& F

luvial

Enba

ymen

t &

Lag

oona

l

Shall

ow m

arine

ex.F

ukus

awa

[12]

Cold

Cold

War

mW

arm

-100

Present sea-level = 0m

Table

2. N

atur

al Ev

ents

and

Proc

esse

s in

the

Coas

tal F

ield

in th

e Ho

rono

be a

rea,

Hok

kaido

, Jap

an si

nce

2600

ka

Palaeo-magnetism

Mar

ine

Isot

ope

Stag

es

(Lisi

ecki

& Ra

ymo

[58]

)

ka

2588

1806781

126

11.7

Sedimentaryenvironment

Faulting

Clim

atic

cond

ition

Last Glacial Maximum sea-level

-50

+20

0

-50

+20

0

-100

-50

0+2

0

highstand

lowstand

Takikawa-Honbetsu molluscan fauna(cold water species;Suzuki [61])

Development of permafrost during the glacial period(Miura & Hirakawa [19]

for Last Glacial period)

Japan Sea diatom minimum interval→Significant decrease of bioproductivity (Koizumi [59]; Koya [62])

Sea-

leve

l cur

ve

Formation of a land bridge which enable the immigration of Mammals from Asian continent to Japanese Islands (Kawamura [63]; Yoshikawa et al. [64])

Significant decrease in inflow of Tsushima Warm Current into Sea

of Japan (Koizumi [59])Under the influence of cold surface water (Koizumi [24])

Setana molluscan fauna (cold water species;Suzuki [60]; Oka & Igarashi [10])

?Palaeo-

environment

Sea

of J

apan

Holocene

Pala

e-on

tolo

gy

north

ern

Hokk

aido

Hokk

aido

cold

warm Cycles of vegetational change from cool temperate broad-leaved forest zone to subalpine forest zone.

Present*Climatic conditions inferred from polynological evidence

(Oka & Igarashi [10])

Begining of growth of the anticline near the Omagari Fault (Ishii et al. [65])

?

1.5

Ma

1.3

Ma

Depo

sition

of

fine-

grain

ed sa

nd

(Yuc

hi F

m.)

Depo

sition

of g

rave

l, sa

nd, m

ud, a

nd co

al (S

arab

etsu

Fm

.)ex

. Oka

&

Igar

ashi

[10]

&

[13]

Depo

sition

of d

iatom

a-ce

ous m

ud (K

oeto

i Fm

.)

2.3

Ma

( Yas

ue e

t al.

[66]

)

Shall

ow m

arine

ex. O

ka &

Igar

ashi

[1

0]

Perio

dic is

olatio

n of

Se

a of

Japa

nca

used

by g

lacio

-eu

static

sea-

level

chan

ge(T

ada

[27]

)

Glac

ial lo

wsta

nds;

Sea

of Ja

pan

beca

me

almos

t isola

ted

and

salin

ity o

f sur

face

wa

ter d

ecre

ase

(28

per m

il at L

GM

; Oba

[2

6])p

roba

bly d

ue to

ex

cess

inpu

t of f

resh

wa

ter o

ver e

vapo

ra-

tion

(Tad

a [2

7])

Regionaltectonics

Fig.

Pre

sent

geo

grap

hy a

roun

d th

e Se

a of

Japa

n (B

athy

met

ric d

ata

is af

ter

GEB

CO O

ne m

itute

Grid

[21]

).W

hite

area

; Con

tinen

tal s

helf s

hallo

wer

than

-200

m w

ater

dep

th.

2.4M

a

Depositional age of the lower most part of Sarabetsu Fm.(Oka & Igarashi [10] & [13];

Niizato et al. [11])

East-West compressive stress caused by interaction between Amurian and Okhotsk Plates since 2.3 Ma (Taira [56]; see Table 1

for present tectonic setting around Hokkaido).

24

56

7

9 1112

14

37

104

10

1617

Horo

nobe

area

(mod

ified

from

Yas

ue e

t al.

[18]

& N

iizat

o et

al.

[11]

)

Sea o

f

Japa

n

Tsus

hima

Stra

it(-1

30 m

)

*Max

imum

wate

r dep

ths i

n th

e Se

a of

Ja

pan

are

in pa

rent

hese

s.

Mam

iya S

trait

(ca.

-15

m)

Tuga

ru S

trait

(ca.

-130

m)

Soya

Stra

it(c

a. -5

5 m

)

ca.3

Ma

ca.2

Ma

10 km

ca.1

Ma

Pres

ent

Inte

rglac

ial

Paleo-Teshio Mts.

Toikanbetsu

Ubushi

Paleo-Soya Hill

Paleo

-To

ikanb

etsu

Rive

r

Tesh

io

Rive

r

N

S o y a H i l l

10 km14

2°30

’E

Area

of t

he

dia

gram

45°30’N

141°

30’E

45°00’N


7


stableisotopes)-Degreeofcoverageofthepermafrost(i.e.justhowdiscon-

tinuousisdiscontinuous?)aroundthenorthernendoftheSeaofJapan

and,ofcourse, the4thdimension,namelyuncertaintiesabout theactual timingof theseevents.Workonestablishingthedegreeofuncertainty in themainparameters iscurrentlyongoing,butitisinstructivetoconsideronehereindetail:sa-linity.Salinityisafavouredtoolofpalaeohydrogeologistsbe-causeitisarelativelystableparameter,littlealteredbyreactionofgroundwaterwiththehostrock.Thisfacthasbeenusedbyresearchersaroundtheworldtoelucidatetheimpactofclimateandsea-levelchangeatcoastalsites(e.g.[34]).ForexampleatPosiva’sOlkiluotositeandSKB’sForsmarkandLaxemarsites,changesinthesalinityofthenearbyBalticSeaoverthelast�25k.y.havebeenusedtointerprettheevolutionofthehydrochem-istryofthesesitesinquitesomedetail.

This is somewhat more difficult for the Sea of Japan as two ofthefourstraits(TsushimaandTugaru;Fig.3)whichsupplyPacific seawater to this enclosed basin have sill depths (ca. -130 m)which liewithin theerrormarginof the likelymaximumlowstandoverthelast�25kiloyears.Clearly,thiscouldhaveasignificant impact on the assumed salinity of the Sea of Japan and therefore on the salinity of infiltrating surface waters on Ja-pan’swesternseaboard.However,intheHoronobearea,whichwouldhavebeensome50kmtotheeastofthislowshoreline,the infiltrating surface water would have been freshwater and it

wouldhaveremainedsountilthenexttransgression.Thisbeingthecase,itisperhapsbettertovisualisetheover-

alluncertaintyasa4-Dvolumeofuncertaintywherethedegreeofuncertaintygenerally increaseswithdistanceaway fromthedata-rich,QMS-influencedenclavearound theHoronobeURLandwithtime(bothforwardsandbackwards)awayfromthe present day. Perhaps the most difficult part of this process isadequatelyaddressingthepaucityofQMSinformationforareasawayfromtheURL–howcanthedatabeweightedincomparisonwiththatfromHoronobe?ThisisanovelapproachinJapanesepalaeohydrogeology,butisonewhichwillundoubt-edlybeutilisedmoreinthefutureaspotentialrepositorysitesare investigated indetail,beginningwith theolder,possiblynon-qualityassureddataavailableintheliteratureandcompar-ingthiswithdatabeingproducedinrealtimebytheinvestiga-tionprogramme.

CONCLUSIONSAnunderstandingofapalaeohydrogeologicalevolutionof

apotentialrepositorysiteprovidesthefirmfoundationtode-scribethelikelyfutureevolutionofthesiteandtosupportanidentification of scenarios that illustrate the range of possibili-tiesfor theevolutionof thegeologicaldisposalsystemunderconsideration.Theevolutiondescribedinthispaperisfocusedon thegeosphere,which isoneof thesystem-components inthegeologicaldisposalsystem.Todescribethewholesystembehaviour, it isnecessarytocollectandtointegratetheinfor-

Present shoreline

Continental shelf

LGM shoreline = present shelf break

Cr

CrCr

Geomorphic profile (Vertical : Horizontal

= 20 : 1)

Horonobe URL

10 k

m

Vertical movement = 1,500 m/3 m.y. in the whole areaHorizontal movement = 4,250 m/3 m.y. in the whole area

Detachment

ca. 1 Ma: Deposition of Sarabetsu Fm.

ca. 2 Ma: Deposition of Yuchi Fm.

ca.3 Ma: Deposition of Koetoi Fm.

10 km

0

500

ground surface

Present

A A’

Base of formationsSarabetsu Fm. (including Alluvium and Terrace deposits)Yuchi Fm.

Koetoi Fm.Wakkanai Fm.Miocene Series

Cr: Cretaceous System

Fault

met

re

HokushinSoya Hill

Toi-kanbetsu

Om-F.Horo-F.

Figure 5. Conceptualisation for the Evolution of Geological Structure since ca. 3 Ma along A-A’ lineThis conceptualisation takes into consideration of a conservation of bed length in the cross section along the A-A’ line. See Fig. 1 for A-A’ line.

Present geological cross section is based on [30]. Horizontal and vertical movements are after [31], and Tables 1 and 2, respectively. Om-F.: Omagari Fault, Horo-F.: Horonobe Fault.


8


mationabouteverysystem-componentasfaraspossible,andtoconstructaconsistentconceptualmodelfortheevolutionofthewholesystem.Therefore, inthefuture, itwillbenecessarytocombinethepalaeohydrogeologicalapproachwithaframeworkforexaminationof the long-termsafetyofaHLWrepository[35].Suchatotalassessmentmethodologywillsupportbuild-ing confidence in a safety case of a HLW geological disposal systeminacoastalenvironment.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSWearegratefultoProf.K.HirakawaofHokkaidoUniver-

sityformanyhelpfulsuggestionsandencouragementduringthe course of this work. The first author (T. N.) also thank Prof. T.ToyoshimaofNiigataUniversityandDr.K.-I.YasueofJAEAfortheirsuggestionsonthegeologicalevolutionof theHoronobearea.

NOMENCLATURE ka kilo-annum;�03yearsbeforethepresent(theageof

astrataorthetimeofageologicalevent)k.y. kilo(�03)years(thedurationofanintervalofgeo-

logictime)

Ma Mega-annum;�06yearsbeforethepresent(theageofastrataorthetimeofageologicalevent)

m.y. millions(�06)ofyears(thedurationofanintervalofgeologictime)

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