csi1303(1).pdf

7/29/2019 CSI1303(1).pdf

1/8

The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research

Page 1

Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index

March 2013

Table 1: Consumer Sentiment IndexMar Mar Feb Mar % change on % change on

2011 2012 2013 2013 Feb-2013 Mar-2012

Seasonally Adjusted* 104.1 96.1 108.3 110.5 2.0 15.1

Trend** 105.3 97.2 106.5 109.4 2.8 12.5

See footnote below for discussion on the seasonal adjustment process.

TheWestpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index rose by 2.0 per cent to 110.5 in March,following a solid rise of 7.7 per cent in February, and a rise of 0.6 per cent in January. The index is 15.1

per cent above its value a year ago.

Four of the five component indices rose in March (see Table 2). The largest increase of 6.0 per cent was

recorded by the component index reflecting economic conditions next 5 years. This was followed byincreases of 3.9 per cent and 3.1 per cent, respectively, in the component indices about family finances vs

a year ago and for the next 12 months. On the other hand, the component index about good or bad time tobuy major household items decreased by 1.6 per cent. Overall, the current conditions index rose by 0.4 per

cent, and the expectations index increased by 3.2 per cent.

Increases in consumer sentiment were recorded in most groups disaggregated by demographic

characteristics (see Table 3). The biggest increment was reported by the occupation group: Labourer and

operator.

This months survey was conducted in the week where consumers heard news about the RBA maintaining

the official cash rate at 3.0 per cent, and news about modest GDP growth in the December quarter 2012.Economic conditions was the top news recalled in the March quarter. The news heard index about

Interest rates was the only favourable news, while the news heard index about Employment was themost unfavourable (see Table 5).

70

90

110

130

Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13

IndexChart 1: Consumer Sentiment Index

SA Trend

-20

-10

0

10

20


Index

Chart 2: Current Conditions Index minus

Expectations Index***

SA Trend

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________

**Trend for the latest month is based on 2-month moving average while the rest are based on 3-month centred moving average.

***The difference between these two indices provides an indication of consumers perception of the state of the economy now and in the future. A

positive (negative) value implies that consumers view current conditions more (less) favorably compared to the future.

Consumer

sentiment

rose

slightly in

June

with

increases in

four of the

five

components

indices.

7/29/2019 CSI1303(1).pdf

2/8


Page 2

Table 2: Consumer Sentiment Index component questions (SA)

Mar Mar Feb Mar % change on % change on

2011 2012 2013 2013 Feb-2013 Mar-2012

Family finances vs a year ago 80.7 76.2 83.5 86.8 3.9 13.9

Family finances next 12 months 99.0 99.0 105.0 108.2 3.1 9.4

Economic conditions next 12 months 104.3 88.8 108.9 109.8 0.8 23.6

Economic conditions next 5 years 102.5 93.3 101.0 107.1 6.0 14.8

Good or bad time to buy major hhold items 133.8 123.1 143.1 140.8 -1.6 14.4

Current Conditions Index* 107.2 99.6 113.3 113.8 0.4 14.2

Expectations Index** 101.9 93.7 105.0 108.4 3.2 15.7

Percentage who reported that they were optimistic minus the percentage who reported that they were pessimistic plus 100.

*Average of the two component indices that relate to current conditions.

**Average of the three component indices that relate to expected conditions.

Table 3: Consumer Sentiment Index by demographic characteristics

Mar Mar Feb Mar % change on % change on

2011 2012 2013 2013 Feb-2013 Mar-2012

Gender Male 109.7 100.3 114.7 115.1 0.3 14.7

Female 98.7 92.0 101.8 106.1 4.2 15.4

By age 18-24 121.4 122.6 124.3 134.9 8.5 10.0

25-44 103.9 93.3 107.7 113.2 5.1 21.3

Over 45 100.1 93.0 106.0 104.2 -1.7 12.1

By home ownership Tenant 104.3 95.7 113.8 115.1 1.2 20.3

Mortgager 106.1 93.0 106.7 109.9 3.0 18.2

Wholly owned 101.8 99.5 106.4 109.5 3.0 10.1

By Fed. voting intention Coalition 101.7 85.2 105.3 101.7 -3.5 19.3

ALP 112.9 117.2 123.8 126.8 2.4 8.3

By occupation Manager/prof. 108.4 100.3 110.7 117.1 5.8 16.7

Paraprof./trades 98.0 89.7 107.1 118.6 10.7 32.2

Sales/clerical 97.3 93.1 122.3 101.7 -16.8 9.3

Lab./operator 96.1 88.8 85.7 104.9 22.4 18.2

Not working 106.6 96.5 105.1 106.2 1.1 10.1

By household income p.a. Up to $20K 94.7 91.8 94.2 95.2 1.0 3.7

$20 to $40K 87.9 83.1 104.0 100.4 -3.5 20.9

$40 to $60K 100.2 92.6 109.1 109.5 0.4 18.3

$60 to $80K 101.3 93.8 99.8 107.4 7.6 14.5

$80 to $100K 105.4 112.8 106.6 109.1 2.4 -3.2

Over $100K 116.7 100.7 118.0 123.6 4.8 22.8

By area Metropolitan 107.7 95.5 111.4 113.0 1.5 18.4

Non- Metro. 96.3 95.4 102.4 102.6 0.2 7.5

7/29/2019 CSI1303(1).pdf

3/8


Page 3

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12

%%

Chart 3: Changes in Consumer Sentiment and Retail

Sales Growth

% Change in Cons umer Sentiment, 1 quarter lead (LHS)

Retail Sales Growth, Centred 3 quarters moving averge (RHS)

60

80

100

120


Index

Chart 4a: Family Finances Last 12 months

SA Trend

60

80

100

120

140


Index

Chart 4b: Family Finances Next 12 months

SA Trend

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar -11 Mar -12 Mar -13

Index

Chart 4c: Economic Conditions Next 12 months

SA Trend

40

60

80

100

120

140


Index

Chart 4d: Economic Conditions Next 5 years

SA Trend

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Mar -07 Mar -08 Mar -09 Mar -10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13

Index

Chart 4e: Time to Buy Major Household Items

SA Trend

*Source: Original Retail Sales deflated by the Consumer Price Index - ABS Catalogue No. 8501.0, Retail Trade: Australia and ABS Catalogue No.6401.0, Consumer Price Index: Australia.

7/29/2019 CSI1303(1).pdf

4/8


Page 4

40

60

80

100

120

140


Index

Chart 5: Current Conditions Index

SA Trend

40

60

80

100

120

140

Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar -12 Mar -13

Index

Chart 6: Expectations Conditions Index

SA Trend

40

60

80

100

120

140


Index

Chart 7a: Consumer Sentiment by Home Ownership

Mortgage Home owner

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar -09 Mar-10 Mar -11 Mar -12 Mar-13

Index

Chart 7b: Consumer Sentiment by Income Group

Less than $20,000 $100000+

40

60

80

100

120

140


Index

Chart 7c: Consumer Sentiment by Area

Metro Non metropolitan

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar -10 Mar -11 Mar -12 Mar -13

Index

Chart 7d: Consumer Sentiment by Voting Intention

Coalition ALP

7/29/2019 CSI1303(1).pdf

5/8


Page 5

Table 4: Time to buy a Dwelling and Car Indices

Mar Mar Dec Mar % change on % change on

2011 2012 2012 2013 Dec-2012 Mar-2012

Time to Buy a Dwelling Index 114.5 120.8 142.2 144.5 1.6 19.6

Time to Buy a Car Index 132.4 122.1 138.4 142.5 2.9 16.7

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13

Index

Chart 8: Time to Buy a Dwelling

80

100

120

140

160

Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13

Index

Chart 9: Time to Buy a Car

Table 5: News Heard Indices by topic

News Recall Level** News Heard Index***

Mar Dec Mar Mar Dec Mar

2012 2012 2013 2012 2012 2013

Politics 6.1 4.9 8.7 53.7 48.5 60.8

Budget & Taxation 28.0 20.7 31.2 49.7 40.8 51.3

Inflation 13.2 13.9 10.8 25.6 53.1 47.0

Employment 16.6 11.9 11.4 21.0 33.9 21.5

Interest rates 24.5 28.9 19.9 60.8 110.6 101.4

Australian Dollar 5.7 3.9 3.9 103.7 142.1 88.8

Economic conditions 56.4 60.0 50.0 44.1 45.8 69.0

International conditions 30.9 20.6 16.6 33.1 31.9 55.4

**Proportion of respondents recalling each news topic.

***Percentage who reported that the news was favourable minus percentage unfavourable plus 100.

7/29/2019 CSI1303(1).pdf

6/8


Page 6

0 20 40 60 80

International conditions

Economic conditions

Australian Dollar

Interest rates

Employment

Inflation

Budget & Taxation

Politics

Chart 10a: News Recall Level - September 2012

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13

Index

Chart 10b: News Heard Index

Inflation Budget & Taxation Interest rates

0 20 40 60 80


Economic conditions

Australian Dollar

Interest rates

Employment

Inflation

Budget & Taxation

Politics

Chart 10c: News Recall Level - December 2012

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180


Index

Chart 10d: News Heard Index

Economic conditions Employment Australian Dollar

0 20 40 60


Economic conditions

Australian Dollar

Interest rates

Employment

Inflation

Budget & Taxation

Politics

Chart 10e: News Recall Level - March 2013

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


Index

Chart 10f: News Heard Index

International condi tions Pol it ics

7/29/2019 CSI1303(1).pdf

7/8


Page 7

Table 6: Wisest place for savings (per cent of respondents)

Mar Mar Dec Mar % change on % change on

2011 2012 2012 2013 Dec-2012 Mar-2012

Banks 27.1 34.6 34.9 34.0 -0.9 -0.6

Building societies 2.5 2.0 1.3 3.2 1.9 1.2

Bonds 0.8 0.8 0.6 2.0 1.4 1.2

Shares 12.2 5.4 6.3 8.6 2.2 3.2

Real estates 16.3 18.6 24.0 21.3 -2.7 2.7

Credit union 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.0 -0.5 -0.5

Cash management trust 1.0 2.3 1.5 1.1 -0.4 -1.2

Pay debt 22.6 22.7 19.5 18.0 -1.4 -4.7

Superannuation 5.0 3.6 3.4 3.4 0.0 -0.2

Spend it 7.3 4.8 2.6 4.3 1.6 -0.5

Other 3.6 3.1 2.8 2.5 -0.3 -0.6

Don't know 0.3 0.6 1.6 0.6 -1.0 0.0

Total 100 100 100 100 0 0

Released: 13 March 2013 Coverage: persons 18 years and over, all states and the ACT.

Interview period: 4 March 10 March 2013 Stratified by gender, age and location.

Sample size: 1200

7/29/2019 CSI1303(1).pdf

8/8


Page 8

Westpac Melbourne Institute

Survey of Consumer Sentiment

The Westpac Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment index has been designed as a trend-less variable that provides an indication of

the level of and shifts in consumer sentiment over time. The index is an average of five component indexes which in turn reflect the balance offavourable and unfavourable responses to five survey questions. These questions relate to family finances a year ago and in the next 12 months,

economic conditions in the next 12 months and next 5 years, and good or bad time to buy major household items. An index level of 100 indicates

that the balance of confidence or optimism is equally weighted, while an index of greater than 100 indicates that optimists outnumber pessimists.

The consumer sentiment index has been found to be a good predictor of economic activity.

Disclaimer: Westpac Banking Corporation, the University of Melbourne and the Melbourne Institute give no representation, make no warranty,

nor take any responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained herein and will not be liable in contract tort, for

negligence or for any loss or damage arising from reliance on any such information. The WestpacMelbourne Institute Survey of Consumer

Sentiment report presents the results of a survey of more than 1200 households, together with the professional analysis and views of the

Melbourne Institute. These views and findings do not necessarily coincide with those of the Westpac Banking Corporation.

For information on the data contained in the report contact the Melbourne Institute, The University of Melbourne, on (03) 8344 2196.

2013 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research

This report is copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of study, research, criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright Act,no part may be reproduced without written permission.

ISSN 1836-4217 (Online)

csi1303(1).pdf

Documents