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Aditya Birla Money Mart Ltd. Retail Incentive Plan Retail Direct Segment 3rd May,2010
Aditya Birla Money
Commodities An Attractive PropositionAditya Birla Money LimitedCopyright Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited 2008MCX, largest commodity exchange in India (87% market share in FY11), was ranked World No.1 for Silver & No.2 for Gold / Copper / Natural Gas & No.3 for Crude Oil in terms of number of contracts traded in 2010.
MCX is the leader in International Commodities (Precious Metals / Base Metals & Energy) whereas NCDEX is the leader in Agri Commodities.
Major Commodities Traded (i) Gold (ii) Silver (iii) Crude (iv) Copper (v) Soybean (vi) Soy Oil (vii) Chana (viii) Guarseed (ix) Jeera (x) Pepper.
Commodity exchanges volumes have gone up from Rs.250 crores per day in 2004 to Rs.70000 crores as in 2011, 250 fold increase over past 7 years. (Currently daily volumes average Rs.70,000 crores as of November 2011).
Commodities form 45% of Indias GDP, the physical market in India is pegged at US$350bn USD$450bn. Further, with India being a dominant producer of key agricultural commodities, trading of agriculture alone is a US$200bn annual market.
Commodities The Great Indian Story Aditya Birla Money LimitedCopyright Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited 2008Why Commodities ?Portfolio Diversification - Commodities dont move exactly the same way & at the same time as equities do, for example, if equity falls on one day, commodities may not necessarily fall that day as factors affecting both these markets are different. For example, buying Infosys & buying Copper both are completely unrelated.
Commodities are less related with each other as fundamentals driving each commodity is different. Unlike stocks, which are affected by global & domestic overall sentiments.
Global in Nature hence there is less risk for manipulation (explained later)
Low Volatility over Equities (explained in later slide)
Leverage Effect (explained in later slide) Aditya Birla Money LimitedCopyright Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited 2008Why Commodities An ExampleFor example, if you Buy 1 contract of Gold (a 1 kg contract);
Say, current price of Gold for MCX Feb Contract = Rs.29,000/-10 grams
Value of 1 Kg Contract = Rs.29 lacs
Margin Required for Buying 1 Contract = 4% i.e. Rs.1,20,000/-
Gold Prices move up to Rs.29,100/10 grams
You make a profit = Rs.29,100 Rs.29,000 = Rs.100 * 100 = Rs.10,000/- on an investment of Rs.1,20,000/-; a return of 8% (This return can be in a single day also).
Note: It is advised to trade with strict stop-loss in commodities markets as it is a purely leveraged product. (Allocating 10% - 15% of a securities portfolio to commodities, investor can vastly improve performance in hostile markets.)
Aditya Birla Money LimitedCopyright Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited 2008Commodities dont move exactly as per equities markets. Hence risk can be reduced by investing part of your portfolio in commodities.
Factors effecting commodity markets may not necessarily affect equity markets. Like strike in copper mine in Chile may lead to price rise but may not at all affect Indian equity markets.
Looking at the chart, we see that Gold prices touched a high in October 08 when Sensex marked its low during same period.
If an investor had kept a percentage of his portfolio in commodities also, instead of entire investment in equities at that time, his losses would have been reduced. (explained later).Commodities A Diversification ToolSource: Bloomberg,, Aditya Birla Money Commodities Research Aditya Birla Money LimitedCopyright Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited 2008Commodities - Lowering Risk in Portfolio The above table shows Sensex and gold prices during 2008. After the Sensex hit a high in Jan 08, it hit a low by the end of the year while gold rose.
The above table clearly indicates that if an investors had invested 100% of his portfolio in equities he would have incurred a loss of 63% on his total investment during 2008. While 20% of portfolio diversified into gold would have reduced his losses by around 33%.Asset Class2004 Sep 2010% ReturnsSensex590019350228Gold580019000228Yr. 2008Yr. 2008Sensex21200(Jan)7700(Oct)-63.68Gold10000(Jan)14300(Oct)43.00100% investment in Sensex-63.6880% in Sensex and 20% in Gold-42.34 Aditya Birla Money LimitedCopyright Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited 2008Commodities are less related not only with other asset classes like stock, real estate, etc but have a lower relation with each other as well.
For example a fire in crude refinery unit may lead to increase in crude oil prices, but may not impact other commodities like gold, copper etc.
Similarly the arrival of festival season may be bullish for precious metals but not for crude oil or copper or rubber.
Hence each commodity has its own unique fundamental price drivers.
This allows investors to take positions in various commodities simultaneously as one factor/event will not affect all commodities equally, leading to diversified lower risk trading in commodities.Commodities- Less Related with each other Aditya Birla Money LimitedCopyright Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited 2008 Gold Seasonal Chart is different from copper as factors affecting both metals are different.
Hence investors get an opportunity to invest any time during the year in various commodities since the price trend of different commodities differs from each other during a particular period.
Like copper is normally bullish during 1st quarter of a year while gold peaks during last quarter of a year.Seasonal Pattern of Different Commodities Is Different
Gold Seasonal Chart Copper Seasonal Chart Aditya Birla Money LimitedCopyright Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited 2008Entire world trades in commodities. All industry sectors, Governmental organizations, Central Banks, Commodity funds to the common man, are affected by commodity in their daily lives.
Due to their global nature, manipulation is difficult in commodities unlike equities where a set of investors can move a stock; like KP 10 Stocks during KP heydays.
Commodity movements can be explained unlike equity movements where it is difficult to site a proper reason for a stock movement. For example, if Satyam stock moves by 5% in a day, exact reason would be difficult to find.
But it is easier to give a proper logical reason for most of the international commodities like gold, copper, crude etc.Commodities A Global Proposition Aditya Birla Money LimitedCopyright Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited 2008Historically commodities have been less volatile compared with equity markets.
Hence commodities as a part of portfolio will give a balance affect to the overall risk adjusted returns.
Low volatility means lower margins, hence higher leverage in Commodities.
Commodities Low on Volatility over Equities Aditya Birla Money LimitedCopyright Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited 2008 Commodities provides investors an option to trade in a contract by paying only low margin amounts. The effect is known as leverage effect.
Commodity provides higher degree of exposure with lower amount as margins are significantly lower as compared to equities.
CommodityPrice of one lot of Contract at MCX (Rs)% of Money Reqd. as MarginMargin Money requiredPrices Quoted (Rs)Gold Regular29,00,000/1kg4%1,20,00029,000/10gmGold Mini2,90,000/100 gm4%12,00029,000/10gmCopper4,00,000/MT5%20,000400/kgSilver Reg17,00,000/30kg5%85,00056,500/kgSilver M2,80,000/5kg5%14,00056,500/KgCrude 5,20,000/100 barrel5%25,0005200/barrelLeverage Effect
Aditya Birla Money LimitedCopyright Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited 2008Commodities Segment wise (MCX & NCDEX)COMMODITIESMetalsEdible OilsEnergySoftsAgri. Comm. Gold Silver Steel Copper Zinc Nickel Lead & Aluminium Soy Oil Mustard Oil Crude Palm Oil Crude Oil Brent crude Furnace oil Natural gas Cotton Gur Pepper Guar Seed Soy Bean Jeera Mustard Chilli Etc..
Aditya Birla Money LimitedCopyright Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited 2008Hedgers, Speculators, Investors, Arbitragers
Producers Farmers , Manufacturer, Corporate
Consumers Refiners, Food Processing Companies, Jewelers, Textile Mills, Exporters & Importers, Manufacturing Sector
Institutions, Banks, Mutual Funds (These are currently not permitted in Indian Commodities Exchanges).Market Participants Aditya Birla Money LimitedCopyright Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited 2008Pure Trading
Speculators in the futures market can use different strategies to take advantage of rising and declining prices. The most common are known as Going Long, Going Short As an Investment
Investors can build and Diversify their Portfolio
Calendar Spread trading
Spreads involve taking advantage of the price difference between two different contracts of the same commodity Arbitrage Opportunities
Inter Exchange (NCDEX & MCX)
Spot -to- FuturesAlternative IdeasTrading Strategies Aditya Birla Money LimitedCopyright Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited 2008Fundamentals Influencing CommoditiesDemand & Supply
Global & Indian economic data / policies
Import / export parity and government policies
Forex / currency movement
Global political / economic events and data
Global Hedge / Commodity Fund Activity
US / Euro-Zone / China / Japan Key Data Releases & Central Banks Statements Aditya Birla Money LimitedCopyright Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited 2008India is the 2nd fastest growing economy in the world after China.
We are amongst the top producers in Sugar/Wheat and other agri commodities, and the largest consumer of gold.
We anticipate commodity derivatives business in India to grow at the rate of +30% per annum over the next 3 years A Rs.150,000 crore per day market by 2015.
Untapped Potential Aditya Birla Money LimitedCopyright Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited 2008Currency The Biggest Market
Are you taking advantage ? Aditya Birla Money LimitedCopyright Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited 2008Avg. Average Daily Turnover : $ 3.98 trillion
Worlds Major Financial Markets account for $3.21 trillion
Market Composition of $3.21 trillion :
(a) $1.005 trillion Spot transactions (b) $362 billion Outright Forwards (c) $1.714 trillion - FX swaps (d) $129 billion estimated gaps reporting
Global FX Daily Turnover Growth : $880 billion in 1992 / $3.21 trillion in Major Markets & Market Share : (1) London (34%)(2) New York (16.6%)(3) Tokyo (6%)(4) Switzerland (6%) (5) Singapore (6%)
Major Currency Pairs Traded :(1) EUR/USD (27%) (2) USD/JPY (13%) (3) GBP/USD (12%) (4) AUD/USD (6%)(5) USD/CHF (5%) Global Forex Market Key Highlights Aditya Birla Money LimitedCopyright Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited 2008Trading in Currency Futures began in 1972 on CME. As per a WSJ Report, 7% of Total Foreign Exchange Volumes is FX Futures
Worlds Main Financial Markets size stood at $3.21 trillion in April 2007
FX Futures Market Global Turnover works out to $180 - $200 billion per day.
CME is the worlds largest FX Exchange with daily volumes in excess of $100 billion with 43 Futures Contracts, 32 Option Contracts & 20 global currencies.
Other Global Exchanges for FX Derivatives
(1) Brazilian Mercantile & Futures Exchange (BM&F) (2) ICE Intercontinental Exchange(3) Mexican Derivatives Exchange (MEXDER)(4) Korea Exchange(5) Tokyo Financial Exchange (6) Budapest Stock Exchange & (7) Turkish Derivatives ExchangeGlobal Currency Derivatives Market Aditya Birla Money LimitedCopyright Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited 2008Currency Movement Impact Importer
Imports good and services
Payments in FCY
Buys currency from the bank
RE STRONG Gain
Re WEAK LossExporter
Exports goods and services
Receivables in FCY
Sells currency to the bank
RE STRONG Loss
Re WEAK Gain Aditya Birla Money LimitedCopyright Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited 2008
USD / INR VS Sensex Aditya Birla Money LimitedCopyright Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited 2008Benefits of Currency Derivatives Linear Payoff Not complicated for market participants tounderstand Standardized Contracts, small lot size US$ 1,000 / Euro / Pound & 100,000 Yen Electronic Settlement of MTM Profits / Losses No counterparty default risk Novation by clearing house Efficient price discovery due to high liquidity Large number of market participants Transparency Real-time dissemination of prices Access through internet from remote locationsLower transaction costs
Aditya Birla Money LimitedCopyright Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited 2008USD / INR - Contract SpecificationTrading Hours9:00 AM to 5:00 PM (Monday to Friday)Contract SizeUS$ 1,000Price QuotationINR per USDTick SizeINR 0.0025 Minimum Initial Margin1.75% on first day & 1% thereafterContractsAll months with a maturity duration of 12 monthsSettlement MechanismCash Settled in Indian RupeeLast Trading Day2 working days prior to the last BD of the expiry month Final Settlement RateRBI USDINR Reference RateFinal Settlement DateLast working day of month, except Saturday Aditya Birla Money LimitedCopyright Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited 2008Daily Fundamental & Technical Reports covering major commodities / currencies analyzing global trends, major news events; key data releases and a technical perspective as well.
Provide intraday and positional trading calls with a strike rate of 65%-70% on major commodities such as gold / silver / copper / crude / soybean / guarseed / chana, to name a few.
Publish indepth special monthly reports on Gold / Silver / Currency aimed at educating the investors on global happenings, to help them take advantage of price moves.
Our Research Capabilities
Aditya Birla Money LimitedCopyright Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited 2008Thank You
For further details on research, you can reach us [email protected] 022-42333480/022-423334846 0f 6 Aditya Birla Money LimitedCopyright Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited 2008