Beyond the Aral Sea Syndrome:

Economic and Ecological Restructuring

of Land- and Water Use in the Region

Khorezm (Uzbekistan)

Ahmad M. Manschadi, John P.A. Lamers, Iskandar Abdullayev,

Christopher Conrad, Asia Khamzina, Bernhard Tischbein,

Mehmood Ul Hassan, Gerd Rücker, Paul L G Vlek and many

others

„Aral Sea Crisis“ and Khorezm Project

Aral Sea Syndrome

- “… refers to the problems associated with centrally

planned, large-scale projects involving water resource

development”

- Desiccation of Aral Sea = “the greatest environmental

catastrophe ever caused to regional water resources

by mankind”

„Aral Sea Crisis“ and Khorezm Project

Desiccation of Aral Sea- Area diminished by 74%;

volume by 90%

- 10-fold increase in water

salinity (from 10 to >100 g -1)

- Creation of Aralkum desert

- Decimation of native fish

species

(http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:Aral_Sea.gif)

„Aral Sea Crisis“ and Khorezm Project

Desiccation of Aral Sea- Area diminished by 74%;

volume by 90%

- 10-fold increase in water

salinity (from 10 to >100 g -1)

- Creation of Aralkum desert

- Decimation of native fish

species– Initiation of dust/salt storms

–Degradation of deltaic biotic

communities

- Collapse of the fisheries:

Loss of livelihood for 60,000

people

- Local climate change

- Human health problemsNASA MODIS Image: May 11, 2007 - Dust Storm over the South Aral Sea

„Aral Sea Crisis“ and Khorezm Project

Aral Sea water balance

(Micklin 2007)

stable Significantdeficits

drought

Aral Sea Restoration?

average annual discharge in the next 20-30 years = 10 km3

Restoring size and level to pre-1960s = 46 km3

Reducing irrigation water use by 50% (~ 50 km3)

16 billion USD invested in renovation of irrigation network would

save 12 km3

Full restoration appears impossible

„Aral Sea Crisis“ and Khorezm Project

Expansion of irrigation: 5 to 7.9 million ha between 1965 and 2000

Reduction in Aral Sea surface area 5 million ha

http://unimaps.com/aral-sea/index.html

Khorezm region:

270,000 ha irrigated1.3 million people

Khorezm Region – Water Productivity

Agricultural production and rural livelihood rely entirely

on irrigation water supply

Major crops: cotton, wheat, rice

Khorezm Region – Regional Economy

Cotton (White Gold) plays a key role in the regional

economy: GDP ~ 16%;

Products Value,

billion UZS Value,

million USD Share, % Total export value of Khorezm 98.591 88.463 100.0 Ginning industry cotton fibre 93.970 84.316 95.3 Oil extracting cotton edible oil 0.936 0.840 0.9

cottonseed meal and cake 0.099 0.089 0.1

Textile industry

yarn fabrics garments 2.611 2.343 2.6

Total CVC 97.615 87.587 99.1

(Rudenko, 2008)

Export from cotton value chain in 2005

Only 10% of total fibre production is locally

processed

Underdeveloped agro-processing industry

Khorezm Region - Characteristics

Resource use

– Enormous, inefficient water use

5 km3 for 275,000 ha irrigated land (>2000 mm )

overall irrigation system efficiency ~26%

– Low soil quality

20% of soils bonitet < 40 (24,000 ha marginal land)

– Secondary soil salinisation

>50 % of cropland is moderately to highly saline

– Inadequate, inefficient and poorly-resourced

irrigation management institutions

Khorezm Region - Characteristics

State order system– Strong government control of farm-level decision-making

constrains the adoption of innovative technologies and

concepts

Performance of agriculture sector– Low crop yields, inefficient management and resource use

– Underutilised and poorly-developed agro-processing

industry

– Rural poverty: 27.5% lives below poverty line (1$/day)

– Lack of incentives for improving land and water use

efficiency

ZEF/UNESCO Project

Economic and Ecological Restructuring of

Land and Water Use in the Region Khorezm

Project duration: 2001 - 2011

Donor: German Federal Ministray of Education and Research

(BMBF)

Project objectives: Develop comprehensive, science-based restructuring

concepts for sustainable management of land and water

resources;

Improve the capacity of regional institutions for

implementing the alternative approaches and solutions;

Serve as a model for sustainable development concepts

throughout the Aral Sea Basin;

Academic capacity building (M.Sc. and PhD students).

Uzbekistan Project

Key research areas; interdisciplinary approach

ZEF/UNESCO Project

Overall goal: restructuring concept

Degraded Cropland - Afforestation

Biomass production

N fixation

C sequestration and soil

fertility

Soil salinity control

Fuelwood supply

Nutritive value of leaf

fodder

Financial profitability

March 2004

May 2006

Productive Cropland

Enhancing water productivity:

– Socio-technical improvements in irrigation water distribution and management (concepts, models, GIS/RS-based monitoring systems)

Increasing cropping systems productivity

– Conservation agriculture (reduced tillage, residue retention, crop diversification)

– Adequate fertiliser application

– Optimisation of crop allocation and production inputs

Improving rural livelihoods

– Value chain analysis

– Agricultural service organisations

– Agro-processing industry

Productive Cropland

Implementing and adapting innovations with stakeholder groups: “Follow the Innovation”

Transdisciplinary approach

Human Capacity Building

PhDs: total 39, completed 19

M.Sc. Program: 59 M.Sc.

33 Bachelors at UrDU trained

12 Post-Docs (6 at ZEF, 1 DLR, 5 in Urgench)

3 INTAS Post-Docs in Urgench

2 Uzbek Professorships concluded

Scientific Output

International scientific articles 50

Books 4

Contributions at international

conferences

>70

Work Papers (www.uni-bonn.de/khorezm) 11

Scientific articles in Uzbekistan 58

Contributions at conferences in

Uzbekistan

25

Completed Ph.D. theses 19

Completed M.Sc. theses 59

Science/policy briefs in the ZUR series 7

Project Partners

Project Website

http://www.zef.de/khorezm.0.html