RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness April 2018

Australia

Agribusiness Monthly April 2018

Grains & OilseedsRising global wheat prices have brought competitiveness to local FOB values in export ports, but local dryness could lift those values out of export contention before long.

Dairy The seasonal peak in the Northern Hemisphere looms as a pressure point for the global market in Q2 2018.

Beef Rain provided a temporary lift in March, but prices will continue to ease.

Sheepmeat Export markets will continue to support strong prices.

Sugar Rabobank has adjusted expectations for the 2017/18 sugar surplus to 7.6 tonnes up from 4.3 tonnes in December.

CottonRabobank’s ICE#2 forecast has been lifted to USc 80/lb for Q2, although volatility is likely to remain as implications and timeline of the US/China tariff situation become clearer.

Wool All eyes will be on low overall supply through the coming month to help underpin the market.

Wine Australia is likely to see only a small opportunity arise from US/Chinese tensions.

Horticulture Frosts in California and US/China trade tensions may present opportunities for Australian almond growers.

Fertiliser Nitrogen set to remain subdued prior to winter applications.

FXA rising premium for US central bank rates and a looming trade war are negative for the AUD/USD cross rate in 2018.

Oil Crude oil price increases 10%, continuing its upward trend, while the BDI plummets following trade war threats.

Commodity Outlook

Much needed rainfall finally reached pastoral regions in NE Australia, with some areas recording their highest ever rainfall for the month of March. These falls will alleviate some pressure caused by the dry wet season to date, but most areas are sitting at average rainfall, or just below average for the wet season. Aside from some falls in NE NSW and Southern QLD, only minor falls were recorded elsewhere across the country, much to the disappointment of cropping farmers, who are very short on subsoil moisture prior to the commencement of planting in mid to late April.

With the ENSO Outlook moving to inactive, it is unlikely that a La Niña or El Niño event will occur in the coming months. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has suggested that a negative IOD event could occur in June, but BOM also states that forecast accuracy is weaker at that time of year. Previous negative IOD events have meant a wetter-than-average winter-spring for southern Australia. The three-month outlook remains moderate, with most of Australia facing a moderate chance of meeting average rainfall between April and June.

Major Climate Drivers in Neutral

What to watch

Local conditions are the major factor when determining the local basis for many commodity prices, but conditions in opposing markets are also critical. With Northern Hemisphere spring crop planting upon us in the US and Black Sea Region, conditions there will play a major role for local crop prices as the season continues.

Source: BOM, Rabobank 2018

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) & Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Outlook

Dry Conditions Remain in Cropping Regions

Source: BOM, Rabobank 2018

Relative Root Zone Soil moisture, Year to 4 Apr Three-month Outlook, April to June 2018

Source: BOM, Rabobank 2018

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Source: BOM, Rabobank 2018

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Grains & Oilseeds

US Precipitation Sends CBOT SouthMuch needed rainfall across major US wheat-growing regions has reversed the early year price rally, leaving CBOT wheat at USc 449/bu at the end of March, down 12% MOM. While rain prompted a funds sell-off, conditions remain variable and more rain is required to allay concerns. US Winter Wheat hectares are not forecast to change on last year, but the USDA forecasts 2018 Spring Wheat hectares to be up 15% YOY, driven by the strong spread between MGEX & CBOT.

Black Sea conditions remain favourable. Despite some extreme and extended winter conditions, little damage to the Winter Wheat crop has been reported. Conditions have, however, slowed the start of spring crop planting and interrupted exports at some ports. Interruptions, and a stronger RUB/USD, has pushed Russian export values higher, sitting at near 3-year highs in early April (USD 209/tonne). Even with a return to trend yields across the region in 2018/19, we expect BSR exports to remain high over the year due to ample 2017/18 carry over. We maintain our view that CBOT wheat will trade in the range of USc 470-USc 480/bu during 2018 and into Q2 2019.

Locally, dry conditions, still-good livestock prices, and reduced stocks continue to support prices. The rising global market during March also prompted Australian wheat to take up an enhanced global position in export ports. Wheat prices rose by between 1.8% (BNE) and 4.3% (ADL) over March.

The sorghum crop currently being harvested is arriving with prices at 4-year highs. Export and domestic demand, coupled with lower-than-average yields, has pushed prices up another 4% during March, 25% since the start of 2018, and 33% YOY. Chinese investigation of US sorghum dumping and tariff proposals will maintain supportive for this pricing level.

As winter planting approaches, farmers face a different set of price relativities on broadacre options compared to last year. Combined gains in cereal pricing, lower canola prices, and dramatically lower pulse prices put wheat and barley in a vastly improved position.

What to Watch

Sabre rattling – Soybeans, wheat, sorghum, and cotton are all in the line of fire for the proposed 25% Chinese tariff on US imports. The timing of the implementation, yet to be disclosed, will determine both how the US responds in terms of 2018 planting and China’s approach to replacing supply from alternative origins. The 25% tariff, especially on soybeans, could very well be negotiated down to reduce pain on both sides of the ledger. Short- to mid-term support of Australian canola, wheat, barley, and sorghum can be expected from the trading of shots.

Local rainfall – Significant rainfall is required very soon to allow winter cropping programs to begin.

Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank 2018 Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank 2018

Australian Wheat Futures and CBOT Apr 2017-Apr 2018

Selected Price Ratios, Apr 2016 – Apr 2018

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Dairy

Early Milk Price Signals Are OutAustralian national milk production stands at just above 6.6bn litres as at the end of February 2018. This is 3.5% higher than the same period in the previous season. More than 80% of the volume growth has come from Northern Victoria and Gippsland combined.

Summer rainfall has been highly variable across the dairying regions. The reality is that summer crops have been negatively impacted. Of the main production regions, Western Victoria was the hardest-hit in terms of below-average summer rainfall and more recently, bushfires.

Some March rainfall was very welcome, with encouraging signs for rainfall in the months ahead based on the latest seasonal outlook from BOM.

Southern milk price signals for the 2018/19 season are trickling out. Rabobank’s full-year forecast milk price range in Southern Australia in 2018/19 is AUD 5.40 – AUD 5.90/kg MS based on our forecast commodity prices through to 2019, assuming a spot currency rate (of 77 cents). Understandably, processors will likely open lower than this, given the pressure on prices in the near term.

Parmalat is offering southern suppliers a guaranteed price for 2018/19 and 2019/20 of AUD 5.40 kg/MS. Bega Cheese is offering suppliers a price of AUD 5.63/kg MS through to the end of Sep 2018.

What to watch• Murray Goulburn greenlights. The ACCC have stated that Saputo’s divestiture undertaking

has remedied their competition concerns. Shareholders have voted in favour, so now the industry is waiting to see who the winning bidder is for Koroit.

• EU stockpile of SMP. The large stockpile of SMP stocks remains a constant watching brief. The European Commission has tweaked the intervention system this season to prevent a further build-up, meaning that all eyes are watching where EU milk solids will end up in the near term.

Export Engine Starting to Cool Down

Source: USDA, Rabobank 2018 Source: Rabobank 2018

Latest month Last three months

EU 3.7 (Jan) 4.4%

US 1.8% (Feb) 1.8%

Australia 3.5% (Feb) 3.5%

NZ -0.2% (season-to-date at 28 Feb 2018)

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Beef

Rain Provides Temporary Relief from Falling PricesAbove-average rainfalls across large parts of Queensland in late Feb and early March provided a shot of optimism into the market, preventing a large-scale liquidation of cattle in Queensland. As a result, prices jumped – especially young cattle prices. The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator rose to its highest price (AUD 5.65/kg cwt) for the year in early March, before falling back to AUD 5.39/kg cwt on 5 April. With higher numbers of weaners expected for sale in eastern states through April following herd rebuilding, prices are expected to ease through the month of April.

National cattle slaughter numbers for January reflected the dry summer conditions with total numbers up 15% YOY at 541,000 head, and cow and heifer slaughter up 23% YOY. Rains through late Feb and early March are believed to have reduced pressure to offload cattle; as a result, slaughter numbers are now expected to track similar to those recorded in 2017.

Exports continue to perform well. Total exports in March at 90,974 tonnes swt are in line with March 2017. A drop in exports to the US was compensated by improvements in volumes to China and South Korea. After a slower 2017, live cattle exports began stronger in 2018, with feeder and slaughter cattle numbers up 40% and 33%, respectively, for the first 2 months of 2018.

What to watch

• Japanese imports – the safeguard tariff measures imposed in August 2017 that lifted tariffs on frozen beef from 38.5% to 50% as of 1 April. Despite these additional tariff levels, US imports have been strong for the past 12 months. With strong production ongoing in the US, and tariffs now reduced to previous levels, competitive pressure for Australian exports to Japan will be strong.

Prices Temporarily LiftCompetition in Japan, Expected to IncreaseEastern Young Cattle Indicator

Source: MLA, Rabobank 2018 Source: Ministry of Finance

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Sheepmeat

Strong Prices ContinueLamb prices remain strong into the new year. The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator has been bumping between AUD 6/kg and AUD 6.50/kg cwt for the Q1 2018, sitting at AUD 6.00/kg cwt on 5 April. In 2017, prices – particularly restocker and merino lambs – rose unseasonably early through March and April, on the back of favourable rains. With the current April to June rainfall outlook set at neutral to positive for many eastern areas, combined with strong wool and sheepmeat prices, producer demand may see prices lift again over the coming months. Strong export demand, especially from China, will continue to support processor and exporter margins, relieving some of the pressure of the higher sheep prices.

January lamb slaughter was up marginally (2%) at 1.9 million head, and sheep slaughter was up 10% to 710,000 head. Initial figures show February and March slaughter numbers are in line with 2017 volumes, representing a more stable flock and no large volumes of supply to dampen prices.

Lamb exports for the month of March were up 12% YOY at 24,385 tonnes swt. While exports to China declined 2% YOY for March, they remain 25% higher than the five-year average for March, and 33% higher than the five-year average for the first three months of the year. The Middle East also remains strong, up 12% on the five-year average for the first three months of the year. Mutton exports were up 15% YOY for March at 14,608 tonnes swt with strong volumes to China.

What to watch

• Fallout from live export sheep footage - On 8 April, disturbing footage of poor conditions on board a 2017 live sheep export vessel during voyages to the Middle East was made public. The Minister for Agriculture has responded by saying he will not support anyone that does the wrong thing and (at the time of writing) an investigation is underway. Australia exported 1.9 million head of sheep in 2017, the majority of which were sourced in WA, 87% of which went to the Middle East.

Lamb Prices Remain Strong,Watching Brief on Live ExportsEastern States Trade Lamb Indicator

Source: MLA, Rabobank 2018 Source: MLA, Rabobank 2018

Australian live sheep exports

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Sugar

Surplus Growing as Asia Weighs inHeavy rainfall in North Queensland has not been the only dampener for the Australian sugar sector through March, with the ICE#11 dipping below USc 13/lb on 7 March, trading between a low of USc 12.27/lb and a high of USc 12.93/lb since. In local terms, prices averaged AUD 359/tonne through the month.

The fall in the market has been driven by the bleak fundamental picture. Rabobank, in our recent Sugar Quarterly, has lifted expectations for the 2017/18 sugar surplus, to 7.6 tonnes up from 4.3 tonnes in December. With early indications pointing to a second consecutive surplus, 2018/19 prices could mean that the early numbers will reach almost 4.4 tonnes, representing limited upside potential for prices.

Heavy supplies globally come despite a forecast 4 tonnes-5 tonnes reduction in Brazilian output, as a greater share of Brazil’s cane is put to ethanol. India and Thailand’s production increases are instrumental in this lift in expected surplus sugar, with India’s production revised upward from December’s forecast by some 4 tonnes. Thailand too is nearing the end of their crush and Rabobank expects the country to lift production by 26% YOY.

Locally, March has seen the arrival of wet season rains through North Queensland as a number of offshore cyclones passed and brought flooding in the Cairns, Tully, and Herbert regions. There is certainly infrastructure that will need repairing prior to the crush, but these regions remain hopeful that with enough sunshine, the harvestable cane will not be impacted too heavily.

What to watch• Weather through the remaining tropical cyclone season. There are some very wet

areas now and further rains or perhaps worse strong winds may negatively impact the crop for the 2018 crush.

Sugar Market Remains Under Pressure

Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank 2018

ICE#11 sugar contract price, April 2017 – April 2018

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Cotton

Another Bumpy Month for CottonIt has been an interesting month for cotton with the much awaited USDA plantings report forecasting 13.5 million acres for the US cotton crop area in 2018/19 at the top of trade estimates. This was followed by a somewhat less expected announcement, namely that cotton would be included in a list of 106 US products on which China has threatened to impose a 25% tariff.

The Chinese announcement saw an immediate 2%-3% decline in price with the nearby contract touching USc 79/lb before recovering those losses during the next day of trade as the market digested the news.

Rabobank’s ICE#2 forecast has been lifted to USc 80/lb for Q2, although volatility is likely to remain prevalent as the implications and timeline of the tariff situation becomes clearer and, of course, as the ongoing mill fixation and speculator battle plays out through to July.

US shipments and export sales continue to bolster the argument for strong demand for cotton. But it is apparent that both US ending stocks and global stocks outside of China will be rising in 2017/18 and likely in 2018/19, which Rabobank sees weighing on prices in 2H 2018.

Irrigated cotton production in Australia is looking to exceed early expectations as the pick proceeds in Northern NSW. Rabobank had forecast 4.3 million bales at the beginning of the year, however, with yields looking strong so far, there is definitely upside to this figure. The dryland crop has not fared as well and yields are expected to be below average.

What to watch• Australian basis had weakened through March, although physical offers have remained

above AUD 570/bale. While there is plenty yet to be understood and confirmed regarding China’s tariff threat – including both the likelihood of implementation and, importantly, the timing of such implementation, ultimately a 25% tariff on US cotton into China could be positive for competing high quality origins like Australia looking to sell into China.

Some Softening to the ICE#2 Through March

The ICE#2 took an oh-so-brief dip below USc 80/lb with threats of cotton tariffs shocking the market.

Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank 2018

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Wool

Wool Market Steadies in MarchThe wool market’s ascension saw some easing through March with the Eastern Market Indicator sitting at AUc 1772/kg clean as the market headed into the Easter recess. This is down 3% on month-ago levels, and with a slight weakening of the Australian dollar, in USD terms the indicator fell 4%.

It was the finer wools, in particular 17-19.5 micron that saw some fussier buying and subsequent price declines. Although 21 micron declined in price from the record AUc 1,937/kg through the month, it currently sits 33% above year-ago levels as bales of mid micron wool tested season-to-date have fallen by 13.1%. Again, all eyes will be on low overall supply through the coming month to help underpin the market, although the composition of this supply will continue to lead to variation in performance between the different micron categories and the quality of wool on offer.

28 micron wool had the strongest gains through March, lifting 7 percent. Broader crossbred wool has failed to see the same level of improvement under the weight of increased supply.

The gap between the volume of wool sold and tested in the 2017/18 season compared with the year prior is closing with just 2.4% more wool offered at auction to date (compared with x at the beginning of 2018) and the weight of wool tested to March now on par with 2016/17.

Wool export data shows an additional 7% of wool has been shipped by weight between July and February, at an additional 24% value. China’s share through the season has remained consistent with the 2016/17 season at just under 80%.

What to watch

• Wool has not been directly effected yet in the tariff war escalating between China and the US. Cotton was included in China’s most recent announcement, but so far apparel exports to the US have not been mentioned. This should be watched in coming months as uncertainty over apparel exports to China could have negative implications for textile production.

EMI Softer – But Still Very High

Eastern Market Indicator eased in March, but arrested the falls to hold steady leading into the Easter recess.

Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank 2018

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WineWhat to watch

The Hong Kong/China border - Cross-border trade between China and Hong Kong is opaque. Exporters will be on the lookout for an increase in US wines into Hong Kong and how China chooses to respond if cross-border volumes increase.

Can Australia benefit from US/China trade tensions?The 2018 harvest is nearing completion, with indications that volume will be average, after the record 2018 harvest. Industry focus will naturally begin to drift towards domestic and global consumer markets. The current escalating trade dispute between the US and China raises the question of which opportunities exist for other New World wine producers with China, following China’s implementation of a 15% increase on existing tariffs on five categories of wine imports from the US (on 2 April), which imposes tariffs of up to 67% on bottled US wine.

Australia is likely to see only a small opportunity arise from US/Chinese tensions.

The US doesn’t ship much wine to China. In 2017, it shipped USD 79 million/14.2 million litres of wine to China, or 5.1 % and 3.4%, respectively of all US wine exports for the year. The more material US market in that part of the world is Hong Kong, representing US imports of USD 119 million/9.4 million litres for the same period (reflecting a higher volume of premium wine entering that market).

But China is a significant market for Australian wine (USD 456 million/25.2% total export receipts in 2017). Particularly given Australia’s location, wine styles and free trade agreements with China (seeing tariffs reduce from current range of between 2.8% to 6% to nil from 1 January 2019), the country’s wine industry is well placed to compete for whatever minor opportunities arise from declining US access to China.

Source: USDA, ABARES, Rabobank 2018

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HorticultureWhat to watch China’s reaction to Hong Kong and Taiwan - Will China act in the interest of satisfying

consumer demand in-country and allow an increase of almonds (and other fruit and nut categories) into both Taiwan and Hong Kong, with subsequent trade flows across its borders with zero tariffs? Or, will it turn its attention to tightening cross border flows to worsen any potential US diversion of products into the grey channel? If the latter is the case, watch for which AU markets the US may direct its products into.

Frosty Reception for US Fruit and Nuts—an Opportunity for AustraliaCalifornian frost issues earlier in the year and the subsequent impact on the Californian crop (see ‘Agribusiness Monthly Feb 2018’) combined with the current escalating trade dispute between the US and China, present an opportunity for Australian almonds to fill any potential supply gap to China.

The recent tariff increases from China (implemented 2 April) include tariff increases for fruit and tree nuts across 78 (61%) of the 128 categories listed. While China in 2017 represented only 3.7% of total US fruit and tree nut exports, the country is considered an important market for future US growth expansion.

For US fruit and nuts, 12 key categories made up 91% of US exports to China (USD 443m) in calendar year 2017. Almonds accounted for 20% (USD 100 million) of these export receipts, however the proposed sanctions will increase tariffs on US almonds from 10% to 25% (for both No Shell and In Shell).

While this emerging US issue will present an opportunity for Australian exporters (volume gaps, seasonal supply window, and a tariff advantage in 2018 of 23% and 20.2%, respectively for No Shell and In Shell Australian almonds), whether the US increases its supply to Hong Kong and Taiwan (both considered alternate routes into China) will remain of interest. Respectively, in the US 2017 almond season, these markets accounted for 73,160 tonnes/USD 386m and 6,671 tonnes/USD 42m for US almond exports (compared to China at 9,924 tonnes/USD 64m).

US Almond Exports to China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong

Source: USDA, Rabobank

US Total Almond Exports (Tonnes), In-Shell and No-Shell (US almond season 2012-17)

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Fertiliser

Nitrogen Stable Prior to Winter CropsThe peak importing and application months for urea are almost upon us. The global urea market was relatively subdued during March, closing at 255 USD/tonne ex Middle East, down 4% MOM.

As expected, a new tender out of India was announced during March. While the size of the tender hasn’t yet been made public, Rabobank forecasts that the lower demand and higher supply at this time of the year will mean that the impact of this tender on pricing will be minimal, unlike the tender that swelled prices in August 2017. Three major urea plants in the US have somewhat overcome the major production issues seen in February. The plants have returned to production, albeit below capacity, which also plays into our bearish outlook for urea prices.

The hot streak for phosphate prices ended in early April and prices have been rising since August. In early April, DAP sits at USD 411/tonne ex US Gulf. The cost of raw materials such as ammonia and sulphur are under downward pressure, which, together with the lower phosphate demand and higher supply we expect in Q2, will keep prices subdued.

With the agreement of the Chinese and Indian contracts, the critical period for potash prices is also coming up; these prices act as a benchmark price for spot markets. MOP ex Vancouver has been increasing very steadily since October, but has only risen 2 per cent YTD.

With the agreement of the Chinese and Indian contracts, the critical period for potash prices is also coming up; these prices act as a benchmark price for spot markets. MOP ex Vancouver has been increasing very steadily since October, but has only risen 2 per cent YTD.

Ahead of the Australian winter crop, lower freight rates are contributing to favourable prices.

What to watch

US Planting – Rabobank only expects a marginal change in planted soybean hectares for this season following China’s announcement of a possible 25% tariff on US soybean imports. Should the composition of the US crop be significantly altered, it would likely change the fundamentals of the fertiliser market, resulting in an increase in demand for nitrogen and a fall in phosphate consumption.

DAP at its peak, Urea in Neutral

Source: Bloomberg , Rabobank 2018

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FX

AUD Softens as Trade War Drums BeatThe AUD lost 1 cent against the USD in March/early April, adding to the softening evident through February. The currency was worth USc 77.62 early on 11 March. Markets reacted to generally positive economic data out of the US (strengthening the case for rate hikes) and escalating trade tensions between the US and China.

It is difficult to see the case for the AUD to rally much against the USD from here; indeed we see downside over the coming 12 months.

US Fed funds rate (at 1.75%) is now higher than the Australian OCR (at 1.50%), and this gap is set to widen further as 2018 progresses. At this stage, our baseline scenario assumes three US hikes in total this year. But, if confidence among Fed officials in the US economy continues to grow and inflationary pressure increases, the trajectory of US interest rates could steepen. In contrast, we see little reason to expect an Australian rate hike in 2018, with the absence of wage inflation set to keep inflation at bay.

Moreover, rising trade tensions between the US and China are negative for the AUD/USD cross rate. A protectionist stance by the US is likely to impact the US growth outlook. On face value, this is a negative factor for the USD, but a US-China trade war could have significant implications for world growth. This would likely favour the USD versus a broad range of currencies, including Australia’s.

We continue to expect that the AUD to eventually soften further against the USD. After trading around current levels over the next six months we expect the AUD to fall to USc 75 by March 2019.

What to watch• Trade tensions between the US and China. While a concessionary speech by President Xi

on April 10 calmed markets, we may not have seen the end of this. Any re-escalation of tensions would cause volatility in financial and currency markets in coming months.

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Australian Dollar Reverses January Gains

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Oil & Freight

Geopolitical Risks Looming LargeFollowing the price slump in early February, Brent Crude finished March at USD 70.2/bbl, up 10% MOM. Geopolitical risks continue to play into oil prices, as the risk of a trade war between the US and China looms large. Saudi Arabia also reported that it intercepted missiles fired from Yemen during March. Compliance with the agreed production cuts from OPEC/non-OPEC countries also remains high. A potential long-term pact between Saudi Arabia and Russia is on the cards, which would result in greater long-term stability in the oil market.

We anticipate that over the coming months, oil prices will continue to trade at around USD 68/bbl, before edging closer to USD 63/bbl in Q1 2019. The basis for this forecast is continued compliance amongst OPEC countries and a 1%-2% growth in global demand.

The Baltic Dry Index has fallen 18% since the beginning of March to an eight-month low. The Index has fallen 219 points, where it currently sits at 948 points, driven by fears that a China-US trade dispute could turn into a trade war. A decline in activity along the iron-ore trade routes between China and Australia/Brazil has also contributed to a decrease in the index, which would reflect a decrease in demand for tanker ships in comparison to supply.

Spring wheat movements in the Northern Hemisphere could lead to an upward trend in the coming months, but in the long term, fears of a trade war could reduce trading activity in the Pacific region and create downward pressure on the Baltic Dry Index.

What to watch

• Trade Wars – If the volume of trade falls, freight rates will head towards a new low. Ultimately, low freight rates decrease competitiveness of exports into near markets but increase competitiveness in markets comparatively further away.

Source: AIP, Bloomberg, Rabobank 2018 Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank 2018

Brent Crude Oil & Average Sydney Diesel Feb 2017 to Feb 2018

Baltic Dry Index, April 2016 to April 2018

Freight Rates a Sinking Ship?

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Agri Price Dashboard As of 4/4/2018 Unit MOM Current Last month Last year

Grains & oilseeds

CBOT wheat USc/bushel ▼ 456 492 427

CBOT soybeans USc/bushel ▼ 1,015 1,061 938

CBOT corn USc/bushel ▲ 381 377 363

Australian ASX EC Wheat AUD/tonne ▼ 270 280

Australian Canola AUD/tonne ▼ 511 520 529

Beef markets

Eastern Young Cattle Indicator AUc/kg cwt ▼ 539 539 664

Feeder Steer AUc/kg lwt ▲ 293 290 344

North Island Bull 300kg NZc/kg cwt ▼ 520 540 565

South Island Bull 300kg NZc/kg cwt ▼ 510 520 500

Sheepmeat markets

Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator AUc/kg cwt ▼ 619 624 654

North Island Lamb 17.5kg YX NZc/kg cwt ▲ 710 695 575

South Island Lamb 17.5kg YX NZc/kg cwt ▲ 705 685 540

Venison markets

North Island Stag NZc/kg cwt ▲ 1,045 1,030 810

South Island Stag NZc/kg cwt ▲ 1,100 1,080 850

Dairy Markets

Butter USD/tonne FOB ▼ 5,275 5,300 5,213

Skim Milk Powder USD/tonne FOB ▼ 1,938 2,113 1,988

Whole Milk Powder USD/tonne FOB • 3,225 3,225 2,988

Cheddar USD/tonne FOB ▼ 3,625 3,825 3,613

Agri Price Dashboard

As of 4/4/2018 Unit MOM Current Last month Last year

Cotton markets

Cotlook A Index USc/lb • 91 91 86

ICE No.2 NY Futures (nearby contract) USc/lb ▼ 79.6 82.7 74.9

Sugar markets

ICE Sugar No.11 USc/lb ▼ 12.27 13.42 16.16

ICE Sugar No.11 (AUD) AUD/tonne ▼ 351 381 471

Wool markets

Australian Eastern Market Indicator AUc/kg ▼ 1,772 1,830 1,502

NZ Coarse Crossbred Indicator NZc/kg • 300 300 368

Fertiliser

Urea USD/tonne FOB ▼ 255 265 212

DAP USD/tonne FOB ▲ 411 410 375

Other

Baltic Dry Index 1000=1985 ▼ 977 1,207 1,255

Brent Crude Oil USD/bbl ▲ 68 64 54

Economics/currency

AUD vs. USD ▼ 0.772 0.776 0.757

NZD vs. USD ▲ 0.731 0.724 0.697

RBA Official Cash Rate % • 1.50 1.50 1.50

NZRB Official Cash Rate % • 1.75 1.75 1.75

RaboResearch Food & AgribusinessAustralia and New Zealand

Rabobank AustraliaNearest branch call 1300 30 30 33www.rabobank.com.au

Tim HuntHead of Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory, Australia and New Zealand+61 3 9940 8406Tim.Hunt@Rabobank.com

Angus Gidley-BairdSenior Analyst – Animal Protein+ 61 2 8115 4058Angus.Gidley-Baird@rabobank.com

Michael HarveySenior Analyst – Dairy +61 3 9940 8407Michael.Harvey@rabobank.com

Cheryl Kalisch GordonSenior Analyst – Grains & Oilseeds+61 2 6363 5900Cheryl.KalischGordon@rabobank.com

Hayden Higgins Senior Analyst - Horticulture and Wine+64 6 974 9504Hayden.Higgins@rabobank.com

Wes LefroyAgricultural Analyst+61 2 8115 2008Wesley.Lefroy@rabobank.com

Georgia TwomeyCommodity Analyst+61 2 8115 2446Georgia.Twomey@rabobank.com

Blake HolgateAnimal Protein and Sustainability Analyst+64 3 955 4603Blake.Holgate@rabobank.com

Emma HigginsDairy Analyst+64 3 961 2908Emma.Higgins@rabobank.com

Ollie Ridge Intern+61 2 8115 2297Ollie.Ridge@rabobank.com

Catherine KeoBusiness Coordinator+61 2 8115 4154Catherine.Keo@rabobank.com

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