2017 deutsche bank global auto industry conference · 3 company overview goodyear is a tire...

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2017 Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference January 11, 2017

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Page 1: 2017 Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference · 3 Company Overview Goodyear is a tire industry leader with powerful brands, a broad product offering and global distribution

2017 Deutsche Bank Global

Auto Industry Conference

January 11, 2017

Page 2: 2017 Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference · 3 Company Overview Goodyear is a tire industry leader with powerful brands, a broad product offering and global distribution

2

Certain information contained in this presentation constitutes forward-looking statements for purposes of the

safe harbor provisions of The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. There are a variety of factors,

many of which are beyond our control, that affect our operations, performance, business strategy and results

and could cause our actual results and experience to differ materially from the assumptions, expectations and

objectives expressed in any forward-looking statements. These factors include, but are not limited to: our

ability to implement successfully our strategic initiatives; actions and initiatives taken by both current and

potential competitors; foreign currency translation and transaction risks; a labor strike, work stoppage or other

similar event; deteriorating economic conditions or an inability to access capital markets; work stoppages,

financial difficulties or supply disruptions at our suppliers or customers; the adequacy of our capital

expenditures; increases in the prices paid for raw materials and energy; our failure to comply with a material

covenant in our debt obligations; potential adverse consequences of litigation involving the company; as well

as the effects of more general factors such as changes in general market, economic or political conditions or

in legislation, regulation or public policy. Additional factors are discussed in our filings with the Securities and

Exchange Commission, including our annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and current

reports on Form 8-K. In addition, any forward-looking statements represent our estimates only as of today and

should not be relied upon as representing our estimates as of any subsequent date. While we may elect to

update forward-looking statements at some point in the future, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so,

even if our estimates change.

Forward-Looking Statements

Page 3: 2017 Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference · 3 Company Overview Goodyear is a tire industry leader with powerful brands, a broad product offering and global distribution

3

Company Overview

Goodyear is a tire industry leader with powerful brands, a broad product offering and global distribution

Note: 2015 revenue and unit volume excludes revenue of $531 million and 1.4 million units related to our Venezuelan subsidiary which was deconsolidated on December 31, 2015; OE = Original Equipment, OTR = Off the Road

Goodyear tires are sold

in two distinct tire markets...

(% of 2015 Units of 164.8 million)

...and serve customers

around the world

(% of 2015 Revenue of ~$15.9 billion)

…available in a diverse

selection of products...

(% of 2015 Revenue of ~$15.9 billion)

OE ~20% of 2015 Revenue

Consumer

20%

Retail

8%

Other

9%

Chemical

3%

Commercial

Includes:

OTR, Farm,

Race, &

Aviation

60%North

America

49%

Europe, Middle

East & Africa

32%

Latin

America

7%

Asia Pacific

12%

Replacement Market69%

OE Market

31%

Page 4: 2017 Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference · 3 Company Overview Goodyear is a tire industry leader with powerful brands, a broad product offering and global distribution

4

Our Journey

Great progress delivering results and building capabilities(a) For information on our use of non-GAAP financial measures, including forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures, see the Appendix at page 21. See Segment Operating Income and

Margin reconciliation in Appendix on page 22. 2010 through 2012 have not been restated for the Americas consolidation.(b) Core Segment Operating Income is Total Segment Operating Income excluding the operating income from our Venezuelan subsidiary which was deconsolidated on December 31, 2015.

Our Progress

Reduced structural cost

• Pension & footprint

Reduced operating cost

• Net cost savings

Profitable growth

• Not chasing volume for volume’s sake; but right tires, right mix

$1.9

Core SOI

Continued SOI

Growth

(b)

Page 5: 2017 Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference · 3 Company Overview Goodyear is a tire industry leader with powerful brands, a broad product offering and global distribution

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Our Destination

Transformative plan with transformative targets(a) For information on our use of non-GAAP financial measures, including forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures, see the Appendix at page 21. See Segment Operating Income and

Margin reconciliation in Appendix on page 22. See Free Cash Flow reconciliation in Appendix on page 24. 2010 through 2012 have not been restated for the Americas consolidation.(b) Core Segment Operating Income is Total Segment Operating Income excluding the operating income from our Venezuelan subsidiary which was deconsolidated on December 31, 2015.

Transformative Targets

SOI of $3 Billion (2020)

Cumulative Free Cash Flow (2017-2020) of up to ~$5 Billion available for Shareholder Returns and Debt Repayment

$1.9

Core SOI

(b)

Continued SOI

Growth

Page 6: 2017 Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference · 3 Company Overview Goodyear is a tire industry leader with powerful brands, a broad product offering and global distribution

Industry Growing and Mixing Up

>17" segment driving $9 Billion increase in profit pool

Strongly growing

>17” market segment….

…which is disproportionally

profitable

…has dramatic positive

impact on the profit pool

Source: LMC as of 9/15/16 Source: Internal Estimate as of 9/15/16 Source: Internal Estimate 9/15/16

6

Page 7: 2017 Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference · 3 Company Overview Goodyear is a tire industry leader with powerful brands, a broad product offering and global distribution

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Industry Growing and Mixing Up

On the right vehicles and supplying more of the right tires

OE Pull-thru

~20M tires

>17” Capability Additions

U.S.: Ford F-150

Goodyear Wrangler

17”, 18” and 20”

Brazil: Hyundai Creta (ix25)

Goodyear EfficientGrip SUV

17”

Germany: Mercedes E-Class

Goodyear Eagle Sport

18”

China: Ford Kuga

Goodyear Assurance

18”

Goodyear Response

Page 8: 2017 Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference · 3 Company Overview Goodyear is a tire industry leader with powerful brands, a broad product offering and global distribution

8

Margins: Our Progress

Significant and sustainable improvement in profitability(a) For information on our use of non-GAAP financial measures, including forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures, see the Appendix at page 21. See Segment Operating Income and Margin reconciliation in Appendix on page 22.(b) Includes raw material cost savings.

Page 9: 2017 Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference · 3 Company Overview Goodyear is a tire industry leader with powerful brands, a broad product offering and global distribution

9

Raw materials are ~40% of tire COGS

~65% of raw materials are influenced by oil

prices

- P&L impact lags spot rates by 1-2 quarters depending

on commodity

~60% of raw materials are purchased in USD

Customer agreements indexed to raw

materials

- OE customers

- Certain large Commercial fleets

- OTR customers

Raw Materials

Recent increases in commodity prices will be an ~20% headwind to 2017 raw material costs

Global Raw Material SpendFY 2016 Estimate

Natural Rubber, 19%

Wire / Other, 13%

Fabrics, 11%*

Pigments / Oils / Chemicals, 19%*

Carbon Black, 10%*

Synthetic Rubber, 28%*

*Petrochemical based

Page 10: 2017 Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference · 3 Company Overview Goodyear is a tire industry leader with powerful brands, a broad product offering and global distribution

10

Margins: Our Confidence

History has shown that we are able to protect absolute margindollars during periods of rising & falling raw material costs

(a) Raw Materials are changes versus prior year and excludes raw material cost savings; all data excludes Venezuela.

Note: This is price only;

excludes thebenefits of mix

Note: This is price only;

excludes thebenefits of mix

Page 11: 2017 Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference · 3 Company Overview Goodyear is a tire industry leader with powerful brands, a broad product offering and global distribution

11

Margins: Our Confidence

Favorable demand vs supply in >17” segment over next 5+ years supports strong margins

Today, the market is tight on supply of >17” consumer tires…

…and we see this tightness continuing into foreseeable future

(a)

(a) Demand based on LMC forecast and Supply based on Goodyear analysis of public announcements as of 9/15/16.

Page 12: 2017 Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference · 3 Company Overview Goodyear is a tire industry leader with powerful brands, a broad product offering and global distribution

12

Margins: Our Confidence

Margin expansion comes from combination of favorableindustry (>17” growth) and cost reduction opportunities

(a) Source is LMC as of 9/15/16 and as previously shown on page 6.(b) Savings less inflation.

>17” industry margins/tire are ~$16/tire higher($25 vs $9) than <17”

Additional net cost savings of $500 million during 2017-2020

$150

Page 13: 2017 Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference · 3 Company Overview Goodyear is a tire industry leader with powerful brands, a broad product offering and global distribution

13

Margins: More Room to Grow

Expecting ~1% improvement per year, although margins not the best measure of profitability due to raw material volatility

(a) For information on our use of non-GAAP financial measures, including forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures, see the Appendix at page 21. See Segment Operating Income and Margin reconciliation in Appendix on page 22.

~12%

~5%

Page 14: 2017 Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference · 3 Company Overview Goodyear is a tire industry leader with powerful brands, a broad product offering and global distribution

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Return on Invested Capital

Value creating and increasing economic profit

(a) For information on our use of non-GAAP financial measures, including forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures, see the Appendix at page 21. See Return on Invested Capital reconciliation in Appendix on page 23.

(a)

11.7%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Return on Invested Capital

~17.0%

Increasing at

~ +1% per year

Page 15: 2017 Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference · 3 Company Overview Goodyear is a tire industry leader with powerful brands, a broad product offering and global distribution

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Capital Allocation PlanSources / Use of Cash – Cumulative 2017-2020

Creating shareholder value through capital allocation(a) Not yet authorized by the Board of Directors, dependent on Company performance including achievement of financial targets. (b) For information on our use of non-GAAP financial measures, including forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures, see the Appendix at page 21. See Free Cash Flow reconciliation in Appendix on page 24.

Page 16: 2017 Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference · 3 Company Overview Goodyear is a tire industry leader with powerful brands, a broad product offering and global distribution

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Market growth in > 17” significantly

outperforming the total industry driving

volume and mix performance

Strength in Asia led by China

Strong net cost savings with focus on

manufacturing costs and SAG efficiencies

Restructuring savings from closure of

Wolverhampton and transfer of consumer

production from Wittlich

2017 Outlook: Considerations

Expect 2017 SOI growth in mid-single digit range

Other Factors

Continuation of unabsorbed overhead

costs related to US Commercial tire

business

Increase in raw material costs and timing

lag of contractual price increases

impacting first half

U.S. consumer supply constrained

EMEA < 17” market; potential for

continued pressure in summer segment

Stronger USD

Positive drivers

Page 17: 2017 Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference · 3 Company Overview Goodyear is a tire industry leader with powerful brands, a broad product offering and global distribution

Appendix

Page 18: 2017 Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference · 3 Company Overview Goodyear is a tire industry leader with powerful brands, a broad product offering and global distribution

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Value Driven StandardizationDrive standardization across the end-to-end value

stream to provide quantifiable net benefits

Network OptimizationEnsure capacity to support growth, optimized footprint,

competitive cost structure, and economic cycle resiliency

Strategic SourcingDeliver strategy by category, security of product and

service supply, cost leadership, leveraged supply base,

and enhanced sourcing process

Competitive ManufacturingFoster safety as a value, deliver a high quality and

reliable manufacturing base, lower manufacturing costs,

deliver on customer demand, and produce more of the

right tires out of the existing asset base

Sales & Operations PlanningBuild end-to-end capabilities and leverage supply chain

in Goodyear’s value proposition with customers

Operational Excellence

Ca

pa

bilit

ies

Programs

Design Make Deliver ExperienceProcurePlan

One Goodyear Way

Lo

ss A

naly

tics

Org

an

izati

on

al

Develo

pm

en

t

Bala

nced

Sco

rec

ard

Info

rmati

on

Flo

w

Value Driven Standardization

Network Optimization

Competitive Manufacturing

Strategic Sourcing

Sales & Operations Planning

Net Cost SavingsOperational Excellence Programs

Relentlessly improving our efficiency and quality while delivering the right tire, to the right place, at the right time, at the right cost

Page 19: 2017 Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference · 3 Company Overview Goodyear is a tire industry leader with powerful brands, a broad product offering and global distribution

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Focused investments to take advantage of the >17” market opportunities

Major Growth Capital Projects 2015-2020

Americas

Lawton & Fayetteville Modernization

Capex: 2017-2018 ~$125M

Benefit: Increase capacity to produce2M consumer OE tires/year > 17”

San Luis Potosi, Mexico New Plant

Capex: 2017-2018 ~$200M

Start Up Costs (2017-2019): $90-$100M

Benefit: Capacity to produce 6M consumer tires/year > 17”

EMEA

South Africa Consumer Capacity

Capex: 2017 ~$20M

Benefit: Increase capacity to produce 1M consumer tires/year > 17”

HVA Capability Growth Projects

Capex: completed in 2016

Benefit: Increase capability to produce 3M consumer tires/year >17”

Asia Pacific

Pulandian (China) Plant Expansion

Capex: 2017-2019 ~$210M

Benefit: Increase capacity to produce 3M consumer tires/year > 17”

India Plant Expansion

Capex: 2017-2019 ~$115M

Benefit: Increase capacity & capability to produce 1M consumer HVA tires/year

Page 20: 2017 Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference · 3 Company Overview Goodyear is a tire industry leader with powerful brands, a broad product offering and global distribution

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Full Year 2015Tire Unit & Sales Summary

Consumer60%

Commercial20%

Other9%

Retail8%

Chemical3%

2015 Sales = $16,443

2015 2014%

Change

Consumer

Units 152.4 147.4 3.4%

Sales $9,907 $10,510 (5.7%)

Commercial

Units 12.4 12.6 (2.1%)

Sales $3,342 $3,849 (13.2%)

Unit/Sales Mix

Terms: US$ billions

Page 21: 2017 Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference · 3 Company Overview Goodyear is a tire industry leader with powerful brands, a broad product offering and global distribution

21

This presentation contains historical and forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures, including Total Segment Operating Income and Margin, Core Segment Operating Income and Margin, Free Cash Flow and

Return on Invested Capital, which are important financial measures for the company but are not financial measures defined by U.S. GAAP, and should not be construed as alternatives to corresponding financial

measures presented in accordance with U.S. GAAP.

Total Segment Operating Income is the sum of the individual strategic business units’ (SBUs’) Segment Operating Income as determined in accordance with U.S. GAAP. Total Segment Operating Margin is Total

Segment Operating Income divided by Net Sales as determined in accordance with U.S. GAAP. Management believes that Total Segment Operating Income and Margin are useful because they represent the

aggregate value of income created by the company’s SBUs and exclude items not directly related to the SBUs for performance evaluation purposes.

Core Segment Operating Income is Total Segment Operating Income excluding the operating income from our Venezuelan subsidiary, which we deconsolidated on December 31, 2015. Core Segment Operating

Margin is Core Segment Operating Income divided by Net Sales excluding the net sales of our Venezuelan subsidiary. Management believes that Core Segment Operating Income and Margin are useful because

they represent Total Segment Operating Income and Margin from the company’s ongoing reported operations.

The most directly comparable U.S. GAAP financial measures to Total and Core Segment Operating Income and Margin are Goodyear Net Income and Return on Sales (which is calculated by dividing Goodyear

Net Income by Net Sales).

Free Cash Flow is the company’s Cash Flows from Operating Activities as determined in accordance with U.S. GAAP, less capital expenditures. Management believes that Free Cash Flow is useful because it

represents the cash generating capability of the company’s ongoing operations, after taking into consideration capital expenditures necessary to maintain its business and pursue growth opportunities. The

most directly comparable U.S. GAAP financial measure is Cash Flows from Operating Activities.

Return on Invested Capital is the company’s Return on Capital divided by Invested Capital, where Return on Capital is the sum of the trailing four quarters of Net Income, as determined in accordance with U.S.

GAAP (the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP financial measure to Return on Capital), as adjusted for certain significant items and after-tax interest expense, and Invested Capital is the average of the trailing

five quarters of total debt and combined shareholders’ equity, each as determined in accordance with U.S. GAAP. Management believes that Return on Invested Capital is widely used by investors as a means

of evaluating the company’s profitability and efficiency in using its capital.

It should be noted that other companies may calculate similarly-titled non-GAAP financial measures differently and, as a result, the measures presented herein may not be comparable to such similarly-titled

measures reported by other companies.

We are unable to present a quantitative reconciliation of our forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures, other than Free Cash Flow, to the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP financial measures because

management cannot reliably predict all of the necessary components of those U.S. GAAP financial measures without unreasonable effort. Those forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures, or components

thereof, would be reconciled to Goodyear Net Income, which includes several significant items that are not included in the comparable non-GAAP financial measures, such as rationalization charges, other

(income) expense, pension curtailments and settlements, and income taxes. The decisions and events that typically lead to the recognition of these and other similar non-GAAP adjustments, such as a decision

to exit part of our business, acquisitions and dispositions, foreign currency exchange gains and losses, financing fees, actions taken to manage our pension liabilities, and the recording or release of tax

valuation allowances, are inherently unpredictable as to if or when they may occur. The inability to provide a reconciliation is due to that unpredictability and the related difficulty in assessing the potential

financial impact of the non-GAAP adjustments. For the same reasons, we are unable to address the probable significance of the unavailable information, which could be material to our future financial results

Use of Historical and Forward-Looking

Non-GAAP Financial Measures

Page 22: 2017 Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference · 3 Company Overview Goodyear is a tire industry leader with powerful brands, a broad product offering and global distribution

Reconciliation for Segment Operating Income / Margin (a)

Terms: US$ millions

22(a) Restated for the new guidance on the presentation of debt issuance and amortization costs. 2010 through 2012 have not been restated for the Americas consolidation.

2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010

Core Segment Operating Income 1,901$

Venezuela subsidiary operating income 119

Total Segment Operating Income 2,020$ 1,706$ 1,577$ 1,248$ 1,368$ 917$

Rationalizations (114) (95) (58) (175) (103) (240)

Interest expense (438) (444) (407) (385) (350) (335)

Other income (expense) 141 (286) (82) (111) (53) (167)

Asset write-offs and accelerated depreciation (8) (7) (23) (20) (50) (15)

Corporate incentive compensation plans (103) (97) (108) (69) (70) (71)

Pension curtailments/settlements (137) (33) - 1 (15) -

Intercompany profit elimination (3) 9 7 (1) (5) (14)

Loss on deconsolidation of Venezuelan subsidiary (646) - - - - -

Retained expenses of divested operations (14) (16) (24) (14) (29) (20)

Other (90) (50) (69) (34) (75) (47)

Income before Income Taxes 608$ 687$ 813$ 440$ 618$ 8$

United States and Foreign Tax Expense (Benefit) 232 (1,834) 138 203 201 172

Less: Minority Shareholders Net Income 69 69 46 25 74 52

Goodyear Net Income (Loss) 307$ 2,452$ 629$ 212$ 343$ (216)$

Sales (as reported) $16,443 $18,138 $19,540 $20,992 $22,767 $18,832

Sales (excluding Venezuela) $15,912

Return on Sales (as reported) 1.9% 13.5% 3.2% 1.0% 1.5% (1.1)%

Total Segment Operating Margin 12.3% 9.4% 8.1% 5.9% 6.0% 4.9%

Core Segment Operating Margin 11.9%

Twelve Months Ended

December 31,

Page 23: 2017 Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference · 3 Company Overview Goodyear is a tire industry leader with powerful brands, a broad product offering and global distribution

Reconciliation for Return on Invested Capital (a)

Terms: US$ millions

23

Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15

Goodyear Net Income (Loss) (as reported) $224 $192 $271 ($380)

Loss on Deconsolidation of Venezuelan Subsidiary - - - 577

Rationalizations, Asset Write-Offs & Accelerated Depreciation 14 32 16 30

Pension Settlement - - - 86

Debt Repayments - - - 35

Charges for Labor Claims Related to a Closed Facility in Greece 4 - - -

Insurance Recovery - Discontinued Products - - (16) -

Transaction Costs and Net Gains (Losses) on Asset Sales - 3 13 (39)

Discrete Tax Items 5 2 (13) (20)

SRI Share Sale - - - (32)

Gain on Recognition of Deferred Royalty Income (99) - - -

Goodyear Net Income (as adjusted) $148 $229 $271 $257

Interest Expense 107 110 105 116

Tax benefit from Interest Expense (b)

(30) (35) (31) (7)

Total Return on Capital $225 $304 $345 $366

Long Term Debt and Capital Leases 6,172 5,924 5,704 5,550 5,074

Notes Payable and Overdrafts 30 23 36 41 49

Long Term Debt and Capital Leases due within one year 148 238 321 368 585

Total Debt $6,350 $6,185 $6,061 $5,959 $5,708

Minority Shareholders' Equity Redeemable 582 539 569 590 -

Total Shareholders' Equity 3,845 4,019 4,196 4,362 4,142

Combined Shareholders' Equity $4,427 $4,558 $4,765 $4,952 $4,142

Total Invested Capital $10,777 $10,743 $10,826 $10,911 $9,850

Return on Capital (sum of trailing 4 Qtrs) $1,240

Invested Capital (average of trailing 5 Qtrs) $10,621

ROIC % 11.7%

(a) Restated for the new guidance on the presentation of debt issuance and amortization costs. (b) Calculated using operating tax rate.

Page 24: 2017 Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference · 3 Company Overview Goodyear is a tire industry leader with powerful brands, a broad product offering and global distribution

Reconciliation for Free Cash Flow Target

Terms: US$ Billions

24

2017-2020

Cash Flows from Operating Activities $8.9 - $9.5

Capital Expenditures ($4.6)

Free Cash Flow $4.3 - $4.9

Page 25: 2017 Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference · 3 Company Overview Goodyear is a tire industry leader with powerful brands, a broad product offering and global distribution