why nuclear electricity for india?
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Why Nuclear Electricity for India?. V S Arunachalam Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy, Bangalore, INDIA & Department of Engineering & Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh PA, USA. Growth of India’s Power Sector. Serious Growth after 60’s - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Why Nuclear Electricity for India?
V S ArunachalamCenter for Study of Science, Technology and Policy,
Bangalore, INDIA&
Department of Engineering & Public PolicyCarnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh PA, USA
Growth of India’s Power Sector
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(Projected)• Serious Growth after 60’s• Generation 6th largest in world• Per capita consumption low• Close to 95% villages electrified
Ministry of Power, Government of India
The Status
Coal67166
Gas11840
Diesel1196
Hydro30135
Nuclear2720
Wind2488• Installed Capacity > 120 GW
• Gross Generation: 620 billion kWh
• Per Capita Consumption ~ 600 kWh
• Coal dominant energy source (58%)
Ministry of Power, Government of India
India’s Future Growth• India needs sustained economic
growth > 8% to radically improve its HDI
• Growth in last few years ~ 5%-7%
• Growth hampered by infrastructure: electric power– Peak shortfall– Average shortfall– High T&D Losses: – Unscheduled black-outs,
especially in rural areas– Supply to agriculture sector
not metered and almost free
Source: Groningen Growth and Development Center Total Economy Database, http://www.ggdc.net/.
Growth Areas• Present growth is skills or resource driven
(exports: software, gems and jewels, garment manufacture)
• Future Growth will have to be on value addition & engineering
• Rural sector to play a major role(agricultural and dairy produce; minimizing wastage and improving efficiency)
• Infrastructure building (roads, buildings, railroads etc.,)
• Manufacturing
The elasticity has to be greater than 1 for powering future growth
Elasticity and Electric Power Needs• Target economic growth ~ 8%
• Elasticity of electricity with GDP stabilizing at ~ 1.2
• Implications for future electric power requirements by 2015:– Capacity addition – Investments – Fuel mix– Pricing and Policies– T&D reforms
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Review of State Electricity Boards
Electric Power RequirementsGen
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(bill
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kWh)
Year2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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Key GDP Growth Rate0.050.060.07
0.080.090.1
Required for 8% economic growth by 2015:Installed Capacity 250 GWGeneration 1500 billion kWhPer Capita Consumption 1000 kWh
Cap
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)
Year2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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Key GDP Growth Rate0.050.060.07
0.080.090.1
The Task Ahead • Need to add 135 GW in ten years
– 13,500 MW required per annum
– ~ One power plant per month
– China adds one per week !!
– Maximum added till now is 4,600 MW (One in four months)
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Ann
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Annual added capacity
Total Capacity addition required
Fuel Supply: Options for Future • Coal
– Conventional– Gasification
• Natural Gas• Hydro• Nuclear
– PHWR + FB + AHWR– PLWR
• Wind– On-shore– Off-shore
• Biomass• Solar
– Photo voltaic– Concentrating Solar Power
Fuel Present In 2015Coal 67,166 MW ?Gas 11,840 MW ?Hydro 30,135 MW ?Nuclear 2,720 MW ?Wind 2,488 MW ?Biomass 1,000 MW ?Solar - ?TOTAL 115,035 MW 250,000 MW
King Coal ! • Reserves
– Proven 91 billion Tons– Indicated 116 billion
Tons– Inferred 37 billion Tons– TOTAL 245 billion Tons
• Coal reserves: > 250 years at present levels of consumption
• Concentrated in Eastern India
Madhya Pradesh
7%
Others13%
Jharkhand29%
Chattisgarh16%
West Bengal11%
Orissa24%
Indian Coal Quality
• High ash: 25%-45%
• Low sulfur < 0.5%
• Low energy content
• CO2 emissions > 1 kg per kWh
• Issues with coal:– Ash disposal: annual ash
generation > 90 million tons
– CO2 emissions
Heating Value(BTU/lb)
Ash Content(%)
Sulfur
(%)
Illinois # 6 10,900 11.00 3.25
Wyodak 11,960 5.97 0.40
WPC Utah 11,240 5.32 0.61
Indian Coal 6,500 25-45 <0.5
Coal: Future Scenarios
• Projections of coal demand (2015): – High growth : 580 MT– BAU scenario : 380 MT– Domestic production will not be
enough. Imports needed
• Issues:– Ash generation > 200 million Tons– CO2 emissions > 850 Million Tons– Particulate and NOx emissions
(presently not regulated)– Coal transportation bottleneck: Rail
transportation stagnation
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Coal Transport by Railways
Business as Usual
Accelerated growth scenario
India’s CO2 Emissions • India’s fossil based CO2 emissions in 2003:
– Coal 666 MMT– Petroleum 305 MMT– Natural Gas 53 MMT
• India’s CO2 emissions rapidly growing– Trebled during 1981-2001
• India and China presently not subject to mandatory cuts in CO2– However future may not be so
0%
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US
Western Europe
China
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EIA, US Department of Energy
India China Total
1980 1.64% 7.83% 9.47%
2003 5.60% 19.34% 24.93%
Share of global emissions
Options with Coal• Coal’s dominance will undoubtedly continue.
– Availability– Cheap
• The question is: How much do we want to add with coal given the constraints of quality, transportation, carbon emissions and environmental issues.
Installed Capacity of Coal (GW)
Coal Required (Million MT)
CO2 Emissions (Million MT)
Upper Case Coal still contributes 60% of capacity
~ 150 GW 580 MMT 850 MMT
Lower Case Aggressive deployment of nuclear and natural gas technologies
~ 120 GW 470 MMT 690 MMT
Coal scenarios for high economic growth ~ 8%
Hydro-Electricity
• Inferred potential > 120 GW
• Installed capacity 30 GW
• Most big projects are in North-Eastern states of Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Uttaranchal and J&K
• Problems of rehabilitation and resettlement with large projects
• Environmental issues
• Water sharing agreements with neighbors
National Hydro Power Corporation, Government of India
Hydro-Electric Potential
State Capacity (MW)
Dulhasti J&K 390
Dhauliganga Stage - I * Uttaranchal 140
Teesta Stage V Sikkim 510
Loktak Downstream Manipur 90
Parbati-II Himachal Pradesh 800
Sewa-II J&K 120
Subansiri Lower Arunachal Pradesh 2000
Teesta Lower Dam-III West Bengal 132
Omkareshwar Madhya Pradesh 520
TOTAL 4702
Details of projects under construction
Projects awaiting clearance and government approval
2,570 MW
Projects at DPR and infrastructure development stage
11,620 MW
Projects under survey and investigation
11,000 MW
Ongoing and Planned Projects
Possible to add 10,000 MW by 2015
Natural Gas• Fastest growing primary fuel, worldwide• Indian statistics (2004-05):
Consumption: > 31 BCM/yearPrimary uses:
Power 41%Fertilizer 32%Sponge Iron 4%Other 23%
Growing needs for transportation (and some cooking)
Latent demand estimated as high as 80 BCM (depends on price, of course)
Natural Gas Pipelines
Indore
- onwards to India
TAPS
TAPS(across water)
CENTGAS
- to Pakistan
Indore
Baroda333333333
KarachiGwadar
222222222
444444444
Gas supplyConsumptioncenter
New Delhi
Multan
1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar
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Pakistan
Afghanistan
Iran
Turkmenistan
QatarIndia
Oman
Gas Authority of India Limited
India’s Gas Pipelines
Possible Gas Imports (Tongia & Arunachalam, 1999)
Imports of Gas
• LNG growing (5+ million tons/annum), but prices remain high– 1 ton LNG can power ~ 1 GW of power– 1 BCM gas ~ .8 GW of powerthus, 20 BCM ~ 16,000 MW of gas power
• Initial imports won’t necessarily add to elec. capacity– Will substitute naphtha in power plants and find other uses
as well • More than half the fertilizer feedstock is gas• Industry has already claimed the bulk of current LNG supplies
Biomass • India predominantly agricultural
country.• Annual production of agro-forest and
processing residues: 350 million tons• Power generation potential > 22,000
MW• Advantages:
– Decentralized generation: close to rural load centers.
– Technology reasonably well developed
– Environmentally friendly: No net CO2 emissions
Feedstock Examples Potential Installed
Agro-forest residues
Wood chips, mulberry, coconut shells
17,000 MW 50 MW
Processing residues
Rice husk, sugarcane bagasse
5,000 MW 1000 MW
Biomass Conversion Technologies• Gasifier-reciprocating engine
– Power plants of 5 kW – 100 kW possible– Diesel engine needs ~ 15%-20% for
ignition• Cost of electricity is high
– Gas engine can operate on 100% syngas– Overall efficiency ~ 20%– Largest gasifier 100 kW
• Fluidized bed combustion boilers– Rice husk and bagasse– 25%-30%– Power plants of 5 MW – 35 MW operating in
various sugar mills– Producing electricity is sweeter than sugar !!
50 kW biomass gasifier power plant in Karnataka
Biomass for Decentralized Rural Power
• Electric power requirement of typical Indian village < 100 kW– ~ 75% is irrigation pumps– Presently these get virtually free, un-metered grid supply of poor quality, few
hours a day• Locally available biomass can sustain a plant of 25 kW-100 kW
– Gasifier-reciprocating engine technology is fairly robust• Cost of generation reasonable
– $ 0.06-0.07 per kWh• BUT, still widespread dissemination not visible:
– Economics unviable due to low PLF– People not willing to pay when state gives free !– Loss of organic fertilizer on land
• Good potential from bagasse and husk:– Can expect to add 3000 MW by 2015.
Wind Energy• Gross potential : 45,000 MW
(assuming 1% land availability in potential areas)• Technical potential : 13,000
MW(assuming 20% grid penetration in potential areas)
• Rapid growth in installed capacity from 1990s
• India ranks 5th in the world– Present installed capacity ~ 3000
MW
• Site selection issues:– More from fiscal benefits than from
power– Many plants not operating– Low average load factor~13%
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World Wind Installed Capacity (2005)
Wind Speed Maps of Selected Countries
Denmark
In general, wind speeds lower (~200W/m2) in India as compared to Europe (350 W/m2) and US US
Off-shore Wind in Europe
• Europe and US have taken up several off-shore projects.• Wind speeds higher• Distance from shore in some cases ~ 30 – 40 km !
Country Capacity Depth (m) Distance from Shore (km)
Remarks
Denmark 160 MW 6 – 12 m 14 – 20 km Completed
UK 60 MW 4 – 8 m 2.3 km Completed
Denmark 23 MW 20 m 3.5 km Completed
Denmark 5 MW 3 – 5 m 6 km Completed
Sweden 10 MW 6 – 10 m 5 km Completed
Germany 1040 MW 30 m 43 – 50 km Planned
Netherlands 120 MW 20 – 24 m 23 km Planned
Germany 240 MW 20 m 34 km Planned
Ireland 520 MW 2 – 5 m 10 km Partly complete
India: Off Shore Wind Scenario
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Bathymetry of Indian Seas
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Nuclear Power: The Present Status
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Indian Nuclear Program: The Present Status
• 12 PHWR & 2 BWR now under operation• 4 PHWR and 2 LWR under commission• 2950 MW generation & 3000 MW under
commission• Successful experiments with Fast Breeder Test
Reactor (FBTR)• Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) for
500MWe under construction• Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR) using
(Pu-Th) O2 MOX for 300MWe: advanced stage of design approval; construction soon to begin.
Indian Nuclear Program: The Constraints
• Uranium ore reserves for only 10,000MWe for 40 years
• Non-signatory to NPT: no access to global technologies, materials or services
• Slow growth of nuclear electric power: ~1000 MWe annually
• Major dependence on Pu and U233 MOX for fuel • Complex fuel technologies. Total capacity limited
Why Cooperate?
• India needs electric power now, more than ever, for human development and growth
• It must generate power from all energy sources
• Excessive and continued dependence on coal contributes to environmental degradation & global warming
• Limitations of renewable energy sources
Why Cooperate?
• Politics of Non-Proliferation: Power & Responsibility
• R&D: cooperation and Collaboration• Bilateral trade & economic issues• Sharing global energy resources• Environmental concerns• Shared vision: secular, democratic &
caring society
Why Cooperate?
Climate change is a greater threat to humanity than terrorism, and no less urgent.
---David King, Science Advisor to Prime Minister of UK
An Action Plan
Until Nuclear Fusion and Hydrogen technologies mature
• Minimizing wastage; energy conservation; Development of Energy Plan
• Installation of nuclear power ( 34GW in 10 years)
• Investments in R&D to make renewable technologies efficient, sustainable &affordable
An Action Plan
• Strict enforcement of export controls of technologies, equipment and services
• Nuclear power reactors under international safeguards
• Collaboration in developing technologies for utilizing MOX fuels for electric power generation
• Participation in Gen. 4 R&D initiatives
Indian Energy Scenarios: 2015
Coal60.44%
Gas14.49%
Diesel0.48%
Nuclear5.06%
Hydro15.96%
Solar thermal0.40%
Biomass1.19%
Wind1.99%
Gas14.49%
Diesel0.48%
Nuclear14.60%
Hydro15.96%
Solar thermal0.40%
Biomass1.19%
Wind1.99%
Coal50.90%
Same Fuel Mix as now Aggressive Nuclear Capacity Addition
• Reduction in annual coal consumption ~ 100 Million Tons• Reduction in annual CO2 Emissions> 170 Million Tons
• ~ Total present CO2 emissions of Netherlands !
Primary energy consumption per capita
What If….India & China Were “Developed”by 2013?
• Expected Carbon Emission: 14,400 Million Tons (2.5 times present global emissions !!)
• CO2 concentration > 400 ppm• Temperature rise > 0.5 C
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OECD India China Others
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Global Carbon Emissions (Million Tons per Year)
US > 14,000
India 600
China 1300
Present Electricity Per Capita (kWh)
Target: 14,000 kWh by 2013
(Calculations Based on Data in Climate Change 2001, IPCC)
What IfIndia & China Guzzle Oil?
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Global Oil Consumption (Million Barrels per Day)
US > 750
India 4
China 8
Present Number of Cars per 1000
• World Oil Consumption: 387 Million Barrels a Day• At Present 77 Million Barrels a Day
• Oil reserves deplete in 8 years !!• At Present 42 years
Target: 250 Cars per 1000
I saw God In the smile of the poorMahatma Gandhi
The cost of Power
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Residential Tariff
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