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Energy,ElectricityandNuclear PowerEstimatesfor the Periodup to 2030

R E F E R E N C E D ATA S E R I E S No. 1 July 2005

REFERENCE DATA SERIES No. 1

ENERGY, ELECTRICITYAND NUCLEAR POWER ESTIMATES

FOR THE PERIOD UP TO 2030

July 2005 Edition

INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCYVIENNA, 2005

ENERGY, ELECTRICITY ANDNUCLEAR POWER ESTIMATESFOR THE PERIOD UP TO 2030

IAEA, VIENNA, 2005IAEA-RDS-1/25

ISBN 92–0–108705–5ISSN 1011–2642

Printed by the IAEA in AustriaJuly 2005

CONTENTS

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Grouping of countries and areas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Table 1. Nuclear power reactors in the world(end of 2004) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Figure 1. Nuclear share of total electricitygeneration in 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Table 2. Number of countries with nuclearpower reactors in operation orunder construction (end of 2004) . . . . . . . . 15

Table 3. Estimates of total and nuclearelectrical generating capacity . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Figure 2. Total and nuclear electrical generatingcapacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Table 4. Estimates of total electricity generationand contribution by nuclear power . . . . . . . 21

Figure 3. Percentage of electricity suppliedby nuclear power. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

Table 5. Estimates of total energy consumption(EJ), percentage used for electricitygeneration, and percentage suppliedby nuclear energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

Figure 4. Energy consumption estimates. . . . . . . . . . 26Table 6. Total energy consumption (EJ) by type

of fuel in 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29Figure 5. Total energy consumption by fuel type

in 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30Figure 6. Breakdown of world total energy

consumption during the period1970–2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

Table 7. Fuel shares (%) of energy consumptionin 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

Table 8. Energy consumption (EJ) for electricitygeneration by type of fuel in 2004 . . . . . . . 36

Table 9. Percentage contribution of eachfuel type to electricity generationin 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

Table 10. Estimates of population growth by region. . 39Figure 7. Population estimates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40Table 11. Estimates of total energy and electricity

consumption per capita. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

Figure 8. Per capita energy consumption . . . . . . . . . 44Figure 9. Per capita electricity consumption . . . . . . . 46Table 12. Average annual growth rates during the

period 1994–2004 (per cent) . . . . . . . . . . . 49Figure 10.Average annual growth rates during the

period 1994–2004 (per cent) . . . . . . . . . . . 50Table 13. Estimates of average annual

growth rates during the period2004–2030 (per cent) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

5

INTRODUCTION

Reference Data Series No. 1 is an annual publication –currently in its twenty-fifth edition – containing estimates ofenergy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the year2030.

Nuclear data presented in Table 1 are based on actualstatistical data collected by the IAEA’s Power ReactorInformation System (PRIS). Energy and electricity data for2004, however, are estimated, since the latest availableinformation from the Department of Economic and SocialAffairs of the United Nations is for 2002. Population dataoriginate from the “World Population Prospects” (2003Revision), published by the Population Division of the UNDepartment of Economic and Social Affairs, and the 2004values are estimates.

The future growth of energy, electricity and nuclearpower up to the year 2030 is presented as low and highestimates in order to encompass the uncertainties asso-ciated with the future. These estimates should be viewedas very general growth trends whose validity must con-stantly be subjected to critical review.

The energy forecasts carried out in increasing numbersover the last years by international, national and privateorganizations are based on a multiplicity of differentassumptions and different aggregating procedures,which make their comparison and synthesis very difficult.The basic differences refer to such fundamental input dataas:

— World and regional scenarios of economic develop-ment;

— Correlation of economic growth and energy con-sumption;

— Assumptions on physical, economic and politicalconstraints applying to energy production and con-sumption;

— Future prices of different energy sources.

6

The projections presented in this booklet are based ona compromise among:

— National projections supplied by each country for arecent OECD/NEA study;

— Indicators of development published by the WorldBank in its World Development Indicators;

— Estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear powergrowth continuously carried out by the IAEA in thewake of recent global and regional projections madeby other international organizations.

The nuclear generating capacity estimates presented inTable 3 are derived from a country by country bottom-upapproach. They are established by a group of experts par-ticipating each year in the IAEA’s consultancy on NuclearCapacity Projections and based upon a review of nuclearpower projects and programmes in Member States.

The low and high estimates reflect contrasting but notextreme underlying assumptions on the different drivingfactors that have an impact on nuclear power deployment.These factors, and the ways they might evolve, vary fromcountry to country. The estimates presented provide aplausible range of nuclear capacity growth by region andworldwide. They are not intended to be predictive nor toreflect the whole range of possible futures from the lowestto the highest feasible.

In the low estimates, the present barriers to nuclearpower development are assumed to prevail in most coun-tries during the coming three decades:

— Low economic and electricity demand growth rates inOECD countries;

— Public opposition to nuclear power, leading to policydecisions not to consider the nuclear option in spite of itscompetitive costs and potential contribution to reducingenvironmental impacts from electricity generation;

— Institutional and financing issues preventing theimplementation of previously planned nuclear pro-grammes, in particular in countries in transition and indeveloping countries;

7

— Inadequate mechanisms for nuclear technologytransfer and nuclear project funding in developingcountries.

The high estimates reflect a moderate revival of nuclearpower development that could result in particular from amore comprehensive comparative assessment of the different options for electricity generation, integrating eco-nomic, social, health and environmental aspects. They arebased upon a review of national nuclear power pro-grammes, assessing their technical and economic feasibility. They assume that some policy measures wouldbe taken to facilitate the implementation of these pro-grammes, such as strengthening of international co-operation, enhanced technology adaptation and transfer,and establishment of innovative funding mechanisms.These estimates also take into account the global concernover climate change caused by the increasing concentra-tion of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and the sign-ing of the recent Kyoto Protocol.

Beginning with the 25th edition of this publication, thedata on electrical energy are converted to joules differently than in the previous issues. The followingchanges were introduced to represent more accuratelythe physical energy supply in countries and to align withthe United Nations Secretariat’s and other internationalorganizations treatment of electricity: data on electricityproduced by nuclear power plants is converted to joulesbased on the average efficiency of a nuclear power plant,i.e. 33 per cent; data on electricity generated by geo-thermal heat is converted to joules based on the averageefficiency of a geothermal power plant, i.e. 10 per cent.The conversion to joules of electricity generated byhydropower or by the other non-thermal sources such aswind, tide, and solar is based on the energy content of the electricity generated (the equivalent of assuming a100 per cent efficiency).

The total energy consumption has been calculated bysumming the primary energy production, the net energytrade minus changes in international bunkers and domes-tic stocks.

8

The values shown in Table 9 refer to primary energyconsumed for the generation of electricity. Owing to differ-ences in conversion efficiencies, the percentage valuesare different from the shares of electricity generation pre-sented in Tables 1 and 5.

Energy Units

1 MW(e) = 106 watts1 GW(e) = 1000 MW(e) = 109 watts1 GJ = 1 gigajoule = 109 joules1 EJ = 1 exajoule = 1018 joules1 EJ = 23.9 megatonnes of oil equivalent (MTOE)1 TW·h = 1 terawatt-hour = 109 kW·h = 3.6 × 10–3 EJ

North AmericaCanada* United States of America*

Latin AmericaAnguilla Haiti*Antigua and Barbuda Honduras*Argentina* Jamaica*Aruba MartiniqueBahamas Mexico*Barbados MontserratBelize Netherlands AntillesBermuda Nicaragua*Bolivia* Panama*Brazil* Paraguay*Cayman Islands Peru*Chile* Puerto RicoColombia* S.Georgia & S.Sandwich IslandsCosta Rica* Saint Kitts and NevisCuba* Saint LuciaDominica Saint Pierre and MiquelonDominican Republic* Saint Vincent & the GrenadinesEcuador* SurinameEl Salvador* Trinidad and TobagoGrenada Turks and Caicos IslandsGuadeloupe Uruguay*Guatemala* Venezuela*Guyana

Western EuropeAndorra Liechtenstein*Austria* Luxembourg*Belgium* Malta*Cyprus* Monaco*Denmark* Netherlands*Finland* Norway*France* Portugal*Germany* San MarinoGibraltar Spain*Greece* Svalbard and Jan Mayen IslandsGreenland Sweden*Holy See* Switzerland*Iceland* Turkey*Ireland* United Kingdom*Italy*

GROUPING OF COUNTRIES AND AREAS

The countries and geographical areasincluded in each grouping are listed below

(IAEA Member States are denoted by an asterisk)

9

AfricaAlgeria* MalawiAngola* Mali*Benin* Mauritania*Botswana* Mauritius*Burkina Faso* MayotteBurundi Morocco*Cameroon* MozambiqueCape Verde Namibia*Central African Republic* Niger*Chad Nigeria*Comoros ReunionCongo RwandaCôte d'Ivoire* Saint HelenaDemocratic Rep. of the Congo* Sao Tome and PrincipeDjibouti Senegal*Egypt* Seychelles*Equatorial Guinea Sierra Leone*Eritrea* SomaliaEthiopia* South Africa*Gabon* Sudan*Gambia SwazilandGhana* TogoGuinea Tunisia*Guinea-Bissau Uganda*Kenya* United Republic of Tanzania*Lesotho Western SaharaLiberia* Zambia*Libyan Arab Jamahiriya* Zimbabwe*Madagascar*

Eastern EuropeAlbania* Lithuania*Armenia* Poland*Azerbaijan* Republic of Moldova*Belarus* Romania*Bosnia and Herzegovina* Russian Federation*Bulgaria* Serbia and Montenegro*Croatia* Slovakia*Czech Republic* Slovenia*Estonia* Tajikistan*Georgia* The Frmr.Yug.Rep. of Macedonia*Hungary* TurkmenistanKazakhstan* Ukraine*Kyrgyzstan* Uzbekistan*Latvia*

10

11

Middle East and South AsiaAfghanistan* Kuwait*Bahrain Lebanon*Bangladesh* NepalBhutan OmanBritish Indian Ocean Territory Pakistan*Cocos (Keeling) Islands Qatar*French Southern Territories Saudi Arabia*Heard Island&McDonald Islands Sri Lanka*India* Syrian Arab Republic*Iran, Islamic Republic of* T.T.U.T.J of T. Palestinian A.Iraq* United Arab Emirates*Israel* Yemen*Jordan*

South East Asia and the PacificAustralia* Northern Mariana IslandsBrunei Darussalam PalauCook Islands Papua New GuineaFiji Pitcairn IslandsIndonesia* SamoaKiribati Singapore*Malaysia* Solomon IslandsMaldives Thailand*Marshall Islands* Timor LesteMicronesia (Fed. States of) TokelauMyanmar* TuvaluNew Zealand* US Minor Outlying IslandsNiue VanuatuNorfolk Islands Wallis and Futuna Islands

Far EastCambodia Macau, ChinaChina* Mongolia*Dem. P.R. of Korea Philippines*Japan* Taiwan, ChinaKorea, Republic of* Vietnam*Lao P.D.R.

TABL

E 1.

NUC

LEAR

PO

WER

REA

CTO

RS IN

THE

WO

RLD

(end

of 2

004)

Perc

ent o

fTo

tal E

lect

ricity

Nor

th A

mer

ica

Can

ada

17

12

113

85.3

15.0

Uni

ted

Stat

es o

f Am

eric

a10

4

99

210

788.

6

19

.9

Lat

in A

mer

ica

Arge

ntin

a2

935

1

69

2

7.

3

8.

2

Br

azil

2

19

01

11

.5

3.

0

M

exic

o2

1310

10.6

5.2

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

Belg

ium

7

58

01

44

.9

55

.1

Fi

nlan

d4

2656

21.8

26.6

Fran

ce59

6336

3

42

6.8

78.1

Ger

man

y18

2067

9

15

8.4

32.1

Net

herla

nds

1

44

9

3.

6

3.

8

Sp

ain

9

75

85

60

.9

22

.9

Sw

eden

11

94

69

75

.0

51

.8

Sw

itzer

land

5

32

20

25

.4

40

.0

U

nite

d Ki

ngdo

m23

1185

2

73

.7

19

.4

Eas

tern

Eur

ope

Arm

enia

1

37

6

2.

2

38

.8

Bu

lgar

ia4

2722

15.6

41.6

Cze

ch R

epub

lic6

3548

26.3

31.2

Hun

gary

4

17

55

11

.2

33

.8

Gro

up a

nd C

ount

ryIn

Ope

ratio

nUn

der C

onst

ruct

ion

Elec

trici

ty S

uppl

ied

by N

ucle

arPo

wer

Rea

ctor

s in

200

4

Num

ber o

f Uni

tsTo

tal M

W(e

)Nu

mbe

r of U

nits

Tota

l MW

(e)

TW·h

12

TABL

E 1.

NUC

LEAR

PO

WER

REA

CTO

RS IN

THE

WO

RLD

(end

of 2

004)

— c

ontin

ued

Perc

ent o

fTo

tal E

lect

ricity

Lith

uani

a (b

)2

2370

13.9

72.1

Rom

ania

1

65

5

1

655

5.1

10.1

Rus

sian

Fed

erat

ion

31

21

743

4

37

75

13

3.0

15.6

Slov

akia

6

24

42

15

.6

55

.2

Sl

oven

ia1

656

5.2

38.8

Ukr

aine

15

13

107

2

19

00

81

.8

51

.1

Afri

ca

So

uth

Afric

a2

1800

14.3

6.6

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

Indi

a14

2550

9

40

92

15

.0

2.

8

Ira

n, Is

lam

ic R

epub

lic o

f1

915

Paki

stan

2

42

5

1.

9

2.

4

Far

Eas

t

C

hina

9

66

02

2

2000

47.8

2.2

Japa

n54

4546

8

3

3237

273.

8

29

.3

Ko

rea,

Rep

ublic

of

19

15

850

1

96

0

12

4.0

37.9

Wor

ld T

otal

(a)

441

3674

96

26

2082

6

26

18.6

16.0

Not

es:

(a) I

nclu

ding

the

follo

win

g da

ta in

Tai

wan

, Chi

na:

— 6

uni

ts in

ope

ratio

n w

ith to

tal c

apac

ity o

f 488

4 M

W(e

); 2

units

und

er c

onst

ruct

ion

with

tota

l cap

acity

of 2

600

MW

(e);

— 3

7.9

TW.h

of n

ucle

ar e

lect

ricity

gen

erat

ion,

repr

esen

ting

20.9

% o

f the

tota

l ele

ctric

ity g

ener

ated

. (b

) one

uni

t was

shu

t dow

n on

31

Dece

mbe

r 200

4.

Gro

up a

nd C

ount

ryIn

Ope

ratio

nUn

der C

onst

ruct

ion

Elec

trici

ty S

uppl

ied

by N

ucle

arPo

wer

Rea

ctor

s in

200

4

Num

ber o

f Uni

tsTo

tal M

W(e

)Nu

mbe

r of U

nits

Tota

l MW

(e)

TW·h

13

Note: The nuclear share of electricity generation in Taiwan, China was 20.9%.

FIGURE 1. NUCLEAR SHARE OF TOTAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 2004

72.1

55.1

51.8

51.1

40.0

38.8

37.9

33.8

32.1

31.2

29.3

26.6

22.9

19.9

19.4

15.6

15.0

10.1

8.2

6.6

5.2

3.8

3.0

2.8

2.4

2.2

78.1

38.8

41.6

55.2

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0

FRANCE

LITHUANIA

SLOVAKIA

BELGIUM

SWEDEN

UKRAINE

BULGARIA

SWITZERLAND

SLOVENIA

ARMENIA

KOREA R.

HUNGARY

GERMANY

CZECH R.

JAPAN

FINLAND

SPAIN

USA

UK

RUSSIA

CANADA

ROMANIA

ARGENTINA

SOUTH AFRICA

MEXICO

NETHERLANDS

BRAZIL

INDIA

PAKISTAN

CHINA

Nuclear Share (%)

14

TABL

E 2.

NUM

BER

OF

COUN

TRIE

S W

ITH

NUCL

EAR

POW

ER R

EACT

ORS

IN O

PERA

TIO

N O

R UN

DER

CONS

TRUC

TIO

N (e

nd o

f 200

4)

In O

pera

tion

Unde

r Con

stru

ctio

n (1

)To

tal (

2)

Nor

th A

mer

ica

2

2

2

Lat

in A

mer

ica

45

3

1

3

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

29

9

9

Eas

tern

Eur

ope

27

10

3

10

Afri

ca57

1

1

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

25

2

2

3

Sou

th E

ast A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic27

Far

Eas

t11

4

4

4

Wor

ld T

otal

223

31

10

32

Not

es:

(1) M

ay in

clud

e co

untri

es h

avin

g re

acto

rs a

lread

y in

ope

ratio

n. (2

) Tot

al n

umbe

r of c

ount

ries

in e

ach

grou

p th

at h

ave

nucl

ear p

ower

reac

tors

in o

pera

tion,

or u

nder

con

stru

ctio

n.

Coun

tries

with

Nuc

lear

Pow

er R

eact

ors

Num

ber o

f Cou

ntrie

s in

Gro

upCo

untry

Gro

up

15

TABL

E 3.

EST

IMAT

ES O

F TO

TAL

AND

NUCL

EAR

ELEC

TRIC

AL G

ENER

ATIN

G C

APAC

ITY

GW

(e)

%G

W(e

)%

GW

(e)

%G

W(e

)%

1055

111.

3

10.6

1099

116

11

11

94

11

8

10

1318

115

8.7

11

55

11

7

10

1279

128

10

14

22

14

5

10

264

4.

1

1.6

30

3

4.1

1.

4

383

6.

1

1.6

48

3

5.8

1.

2

350

4.

1

1.2

54

3

6.1

1.

1

828

15

1.8

724

12

5.1

17

.3

76

2

119

16

84

2

97

11

940

79

8.5

81

6

125

15

95

1

130

14

11

18

14

5

13

466

49

.4

10

.6

46

9

48

10

505

64

13

54

3

66

12

496

51

10

60

5

78

13

736

97

13

105

1.

8

1.7

11

5

1.8

1.

6

143

2.

1

1.5

18

1

2.1

1.

2

135

1.

8

1.3

20

7

4.1

2.

0

316

9.

3

3.0

284

3.

0

1.0

33

1

9

2.

8

430

15

3.6

55

6

18

3.

2

370

10

2.8

55

5

27

4.

9

811

43

5.3

143

16

9

213

0.

9

0.4

26

4

0.9

0.

3

184

27

0

0.9

0.

3

391

3.

0

0.8

651

72

.8

11

.2

68

5

82

12

804

11

3

14

937

13

1

14

840

85

10

11

67

14

2

12

1589

183

11

Low

Est

imat

e36

93

36

7.5

10

.0

39

34

38

0

10

4515

416

9.2

52

23

41

8

8.

0

Hig

h Es

timat

e43

47

39

5

9.

1

5576

516

9.3

72

10

64

0

8.

9

Note

:(a

) Nuc

lear

cap

acity

est

imat

es ta

ke in

to a

ccou

nt th

e sc

hedu

led

deco

mm

issi

onin

g of

the

olde

r uni

ts a

t the

end

of t

heir

lifet

ime.

Coun

try G

roup

Tota

l Ele

ct.

GW

(e)

Tota

l Ele

ct.

GW

(e)

Tota

l Ele

ct.

GW

(e)

Nucl

ear

2004

2010

(a)

2020

(a)

2030

(a)

Tota

l Ele

ct.

GW

(e)

Nucl

ear

Nucl

ear

Nucl

ear

Nor

th A

mer

ica

Latin

Am

eric

a

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

East

ern

Euro

pe

Wor

ld T

otal

Afric

a

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

Far E

ast

17

North Latin Western EasternAmerica America Europe Europe

FIGURE 2. TOTAL AND NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2004

2010

2020

2030

GW

(e)

GENERATING CAPACITY

18

Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastSouth Asia & the Pacific

2004

2010

2020

2030

Total Capacity - High EstimateTotal Capacity - Low EstimateNuclear Contribution - High EstimateNuclear Contribution - Low Estimate

19

TABL

E 4.

EST

IMAT

ES O

F TO

TAL

ELEC

TRIC

ITY

GEN

ERAT

ION

AND

CONT

RIBU

TIO

N BY

NUC

LEAR

PO

WER

(*)

TW·h

%TW

·h%

TW·h

%TW

·h%

4521

873.

8

19

.3

47

32

92

6

20

5402

953

18

60

44

92

8

15

5079

931

18

62

17

10

31

17

7559

1168

15

1069

29.4

2.8

1151

31

2.

7

1564

46

2.

9

2138

44

2.

1

1366

31

2.

2

2166

46

2.

1

3545

114

3.2

2934

890.

5

30

.3

31

47

87

7

28

3432

728

21

37

20

61

3

16

3377

923

27

43

47

98

1

23

5621

1119

20

1692

310.

1

18

.3

17

84

31

5

18

2061

429

21

23

41

46

4

20

1941

338

17

26

61

52

5

20

3835

681

18

498

14.3

2.9

569

14

2.

5

738

17

2.

4

929

18

1.

9

637

14

2.

3

1008

34

3.

3

1582

77

4.

9

1201

17.0

1.4

1348

56

4.

2

1792

94

5.

3

2316

115

5.0

15

97

62

3.9

25

32

16

7

6.

6

3864

279

7.2

639

763

973

5.5

0.

6

1211

5.8

0.

5

805

1148

5.5

0.

5

1629

19

1.

2

3785

483.

5

12

.8

40

37

55

8

14

4934

783

16

59

68

92

8

16

4968

583

12

75

92

98

0

13

1132

5

12

96

11

Low

Est

imat

e16

337

2618

.6

16

.0

17

531

2776

16

20

894

3055

15

24

667

3115

13

H

igh

Estim

ate

1976

9

28

81

15

2767

1

37

69

14

3896

0

47

53

12

(*) T

he n

ucle

ar g

ener

atio

n da

ta p

rese

nted

in th

is ta

ble

and

the

nucl

ear c

apac

ity d

ata

pres

ente

d in

Tab

le 3

can

not b

e us

ed to

cal

cula

te a

vera

ge a

nnua

l cap

acity

fact

ors

for n

ucle

ar p

lant

s,

as

Tabl

e 3

pres

ents

yea

r-end

cap

acity

and

not

the

effe

ctiv

e ca

paci

ty a

vera

ge o

ver t

he y

ear.

Wor

ld T

otal

Afric

a

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

Far E

ast

Nor

th A

mer

ica

Latin

Am

eric

a

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

East

ern

Euro

pe

Nucl

ear

2004

2010

2020

2030

Tota

l Ele

ct.

TW·h

Nucl

ear

Nucl

ear

Nucl

ear

Coun

try G

roup

Tota

l Ele

ct.

TW·h

Tota

l Ele

ct.

TW·h

Tota

l Ele

ct.

TW·h

21


FIGURE 3. PERCENTAGE OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLIED

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2004

2010

2020

2030

Perc

enta

ge (%

)

BY NUCLEAR POWER

22


2004

2010

2020

2030

Nuclear Low Estimate

Nuclear High Estimate

23

TAB

LE 5

. EST

IMAT

ES O

F TO

TAL

ENER

GY

CO

NSU

MPT

ION

(EJ)

, PER

CEN

TAG

E U

SED

FO

R E

LEC

TRIC

ITY

GEN

ERAT

ION

, AN

D P

ERC

ENTA

GE

S

UPP

LIED

BY

NU

CLE

AR

EN

ERG

Y (*

)

113.

9

36

.2

8.

4

11

9

36

8.5

12

7

39

8.2

13

6

40

7.4

12

7

36

8.0

14

5

39

7.7

16

6

41

7.7

28.4

22.6

1.1

33

21

1.0

42

22

1.

2

53

24

0.9

36

23

0.

9

55

24

0.9

81

26

1.

5

69.9

36.4

13.9

73

37

13

78

37

10

82

37

8.1

76

38

13

85

43

13

96

49

13

52.7

38.0

6.4

56

38

6.2

63

38

7.

4

71

39

7.1

60

38

6.

1

77

41

7.5

95

48

7.

8

22.3

20.0

0.7

25

21

0.6

30

22

0.

6

36

23

0.5

27

21

0.

6

37

24

1.0

49

29

1.

7

46.3

30.0

0.4

54

29

1.1

69

30

1.

5

87

31

1.4

60

31

1.

1

88

33

2.1

12

4

36

2.5

21.5

30.9

25

32

30

33

0.2

37

34

0.

2

28

30

40

30

0.2

54

31

0.

4

95.3

35.7

5.5

107

34

5.

7

130

34

6.

6

156

35

6.

5

120

37

5.

3

171

40

6.

3

236

43

6.

0

Low

Est

imat

e45

0.5

33.8

6.3

491

33

6.

2

570

34

5.

8

660

34

5.

2

Hig

h E

stim

ate

535

34

5.

9

697

37

5.

9

901

40

5.

8

Not

e: (*

) Tot

al e

nerg

y co

nsum

ptio

n is

est

imat

ed a

s pr

imar

y en

ergy

requ

irmen

ts =

pro

duct

ion

of p

rimar

y en

ergy

plu

s ne

t tra

de (I

mpo

rt –

Exp

ort)

min

us in

tern

atio

nal b

unke

rs a

nd s

tock

cha

nges

.

Wor

ld T

otal

Afri

ca

Mid

dle

Eas

t and

Sou

th A

sia

Sou

th E

ast A

sia

and

the

Pac

ific

Far E

ast

Nor

th A

mer

ica

Latin

Am

eric

a

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

Eas

tern

Eur

ope

% U

sed

for

Ele

ct. G

en.

% S

uppl

ied

by N

ucle

ar

2004

2010

2020

2030

Tota

l Ene

rgy

Con

sum

ptio

nTo

tal E

nerg

yC

onsu

mpt

ion

% S

uppl

ied

by N

ucle

ar%

Use

d fo

rE

lect

. Gen

.%

Sup

plie

dby

Nuc

lear

Cou

ntry

Gro

up%

Use

d fo

rE

lect

. Gen

.%

Sup

plie

dby

Nuc

lear

% U

sed

for

Ele

ct. G

en.

Tota

l Ene

rgy

Con

sum

ptio

nTo

tal E

nerg

yC

onsu

mpt

ion

25


FIGURE 4. ENERGY CONSUMPTION ESTIMATES

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

2004

2010

2020

2030

EJ

26


2004

2010

2020

2030

Total - High EstimateTotal - Low EstimateNuclear - High EstimateNuclear - Low Estimate

27

TABL

E 6.

TO

TAL

ENER

GY

CONS

UMPT

ION

(EJ)

BY

TYPE

OF

FUEL

IN 2

004

(*)Co

untry

Gro

upSo

lids

(a)

Liqu

ids

Gas

esBi

omas

s (b

)Hy

dro

Nucl

ear

Rene

wab

les

(c)

Tota

l

Nor

th A

mer

ica24

.63

45.0

6

28

.30

3.69

2.19

9.53

0.54

113.

95

Lat

in A

mer

ica1.

10

13

.66

6.85

3.98

2.18

0.32

0.32

28.4

1

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

10.4

4

26

.09

18.3

1

2.

80

1.

97

9.

71

0.

58

69

.92

Eas

tern

Eur

ope

11.5

4

10

.71

24.4

1

1.

93

0.

89

3.

38

-0

.12

52.7

4

Afri

ca6.

18

5.

54

2.

68

7.

36

0.

34

0.

16

0.

01

22

.27

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia11

.00

18.6

8

10

.61

5.49

0.37

0.19

0.01

46.3

4

Sou

th E

ast A

sia a

nd th

e Pa

cific

4.28

9.66

4.90

2.16

0.28

0.24

21.5

2

Far

Eas

t48

.31

28.6

9

7.

71

3.

00

1.

78

5.

27

0.

58

95

.35

Wor

ld T

otal

117.

48

15

8.10

103.

79

30

.41

10.0

0

28

.57

2.16

450.

50

Not

es:

(*) T

otal

ene

rgy

cons

umpt

ion

= pr

oduc

tion

of p

rimar

y en

ergy

plu

s ne

t tra

de (I

mpo

rt –

Expo

rt) m

inus

inte

rnat

iona

l bun

kers

and

sto

ck c

hang

es.

(a) S

olid

s do

not

incl

ude

com

mer

cial

woo

d. (b

) The

col

umn

head

ed 'B

iom

ass'

incl

udes

com

mer

cial

woo

d, c

ombu

stib

le re

new

able

s, w

aste

and

oth

er b

iom

ass

prod

ucts

. (c

) The

col

umn

head

ed 'R

enew

able

s' in

clud

es g

eoth

erm

al, w

ind,

sol

ar, t

ide

ener

gy a

nd n

et e

lect

ricity

trad

e.

29


FIGURE 5. TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY FUEL TYPE

0

20

40

60

80

100

120EJ

IN 2004

30


Liquids Solids Gases Biomass

Hydro Nuclear Renewables

31

FIGURE 6. BREAKDOWN OF WORLD TOTAL ENERGY CON-

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1970 1975 1980 1985Year

EJ

SUMPTION DURING THE PERIOD 1970—2004

32

1990 1995 2000

Liquids Solids Gases

Biomass Hydro Nuclear

33

TABL

E 7.

FUE

L SH

ARES

(%) O

F EN

ERG

Y CO

NSUM

PTIO

N IN

200

4 (*)

Coun

try G

roup

Solid

s (a

)Li

quid

sG

ases

Biom

ass

(b)

Hydr

oNu

clea

rRe

new

able

s (c

)To

tal

Nor

th A

mer

ica21

.62

39.5

4

24

.84

3.24

1.92

8.37

0.48

100.

00

Lat

in A

mer

ica3.

89

48

.07

24.1

2

14

.00

7.68

1.13

1.11

100.

00

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

14.9

3

37

.32

26.2

0

4.

01

2.

82

13

.89

0.83

100.

00

Eas

tern

Eur

ope

21.8

8

20

.31

46.2

9

3.

65

1.

68

6.

41

-0

.23

100.

00

Afri

ca27

.74

24.8

9

12

.05

33.0

3

1.

53

0.

70

0.

06

10

0.00

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia23

.73

40.3

1

22

.89

11.8

5

0.

79

0.

40

0.

03

10

0.00

Sou

th E

ast A

sia a

nd th

e Pa

cific

19.9

0

44

.90

22.7

5

10

.04

1.30

1.11

100.

00

Far

Eas

t50

.67

30.0

9

8.

09

3.

15

1.

86

5.

53

0.

61

10

0.00

Wor

ld T

otal

26.0

8

35

.09

23.0

4

6.

75

2.

22

6.

34

0.

48

10

0.00

Not

es:

(*) T

otal

ene

rgy

cons

umpt

ion

= pr

oduc

tion

of p

rimar

y en

ergy

plu

s ne

t tra

de (I

mpo

rt –

Expo

rt) m

inus

inte

rnat

iona

l bun

kers

and

sto

ck c

hang

es.

(a) S

olid

s do

not

incl

ude

com

mer

cial

woo

d. (b

) The

col

umn

head

ed 'B

iom

ass'

incl

udes

com

mer

cial

woo

d, c

ombu

stib

le re

new

able

s, w

aste

and

oth

er b

iom

ass

prod

ucts

. (c

) The

col

umn

head

ed 'R

enew

able

s' in

clud

es g

eoth

erm

al, w

ind,

sol

ar, t

ide

ener

gy a

nd n

et e

lect

ricity

trad

e.

35

TABL

E 8.

ENE

RGY

CONS

UMPT

ION

(EJ)

FO

R EL

ECTR

ICIT

Y G

ENER

ATIO

N BY

TYP

E O

F FU

EL IN

200

4Co

untry

Gro

upTh

erm

al (a

)Hy

dro

Nucl

ear

Rene

wab

les

(b)

Tota

l

Nor

th A

mer

ica

29.4

8

2.

19

9.

53

0.

54

41

.75

Lat

in A

mer

ica

4.05

2.18

0.32

0.32

6.88

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

14.6

2

1.

97

9.

71

0.

41

26

.72

Eas

tern

Eur

ope

16.4

2

0.

89

3.

38

0.

01

20

.70

Afri

ca4.

28

0.

34

0.

16

0.

02

4.

79

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

14.9

9

0.

37

0.

19

0.

01

15

.56

Sou

th E

ast A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic6.

28

0.

28

0.

23

6.

78

Far

Eas

t25

.88

1.78

5.27

0.58

33.5

1

Wor

ld T

otal

116.

00

10

.00

28.5

7

2.

12

15

6.68

Not

es:

(a) T

he c

olum

n he

aded

'The

rmal

' is

the

tota

l for

sol

ids,

liqu

ids,

gas

es, b

iom

ass

and

was

te.

(b) T

he c

olum

n he

aded

'Ren

ewab

les'

incl

udes

geo

ther

mal

, win

d, s

olar

and

tide

ene

rgy.

36

TABL

E 9.

PER

CENT

AGE

CONT

RIBU

TIO

N O

F EA

CH F

UEL

TYPE

TO

ELE

CTRI

CITY

GEN

ERAT

ION

IN 2

004

Coun

try G

roup

Ther

mal

(a)

Hydr

oNu

clea

rRe

new

able

s (b

)To

tal

Nor

th A

mer

ica

66.6

0

13

.46

19.3

3

0.

61

10

0.00

Lat

in A

mer

ica

39.4

6

56

.71

2.76

1.08

100.

00

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

48.7

6

18

.70

30.3

5

2.

19

10

0.00

Eas

tern

Eur

ope

67.0

7

14

.59

18.3

2

0.

02

10

0.00

Afri

ca78

.03

18.9

2

2.

87

0.

18

10

0.00

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

89.8

1

8.

52

1.

41

0.

25

10

0.00

Sou

th E

ast A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic86

.72

12.2

0

1.

08

10

0.00

Far

Eas

t73

.78

13.0

0

12

.78

0.44

100.

00

Wor

ld T

otal

66.1

8

17

.00

16.0

3

0.

80

10

0.00

Not

es:

(a) T

he c

olum

n he

aded

'The

rmal

' is

the

tota

l for

sol

ids,

liqu

ids,

gas

es, b

iom

ass

and

was

te.

(b) T

he c

olum

n he

aded

'Ren

ewab

les'

incl

udes

geo

ther

mal

, win

d, s

olar

and

tide

ene

rgy.

37

TABL

E 10

. EST

IMAT

ES O

F PO

PULA

TIO

N G

ROW

TH B

Y RE

GIO

N (*)

Nor

th A

mer

ica

329

1.05

348

0.95

379

0.87

407

0.71

Latin

Am

eric

a55

1

1.

53

59

5

1.

28

65

9

1.

04

71

1

0.

76

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

466

0.46

475

0.30

484

0.19

488

0.09

East

ern

Euro

pe40

7

-0

.16

402

-0.2

0

39

3

-0

.22

380

-0.3

5

Afric

a86

9

2.

33

98

4

2.

09

11

88

1.

90

13

98

1.

64

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

1646

1.90

1816

1.66

2091

1.42

2325

1.07

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic40

0

1.

45

42

8

1.

14

46

9

0.

91

50

0

0.

64

Far E

ast

1706

0.89

1778

0.69

1872

0.52

1914

0.22

Wor

ld T

otal

6375

1.32

6827

1.15

7535

0.99

8123

0.75

(*) P

roje

ctio

n fig

ures

are

the

arith

met

ic a

vera

ge b

etw

een

low

and

hig

h es

timat

es.

Coun

try G

roup

Milli

on In

habi

tant

sM

illion

Inha

bita

nts

Milli

on In

habi

tant

sG

row

th R

ate

(%/a

) 19

91 —

200

4G

row

th R

ate

(%/a

) 20

04 —

201

0G

row

th R

ate

(%/a

) 20

10 —

202

0G

row

th R

ate

(%/a

) 20

20 —

203

0M

illion

Inha

bita

nts

2004

2010

2020

2030

39


FIGURE 7. POPULATION ESTIMATES

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2004

2010

2020

2030

Milli

ons

of In

habi

tant

s

40


2004

2010

2020

2030

41

TAB

LE 1

1. E

STIM

ATES

OF

TOTA

L EN

ERG

Y A

ND

ELE

CTR

ICIT

Y C

ON

SUM

PTIO

N P

ER C

API

TA

Nor

th A

mer

ica

347

13.8

341

—36

4 13

.6

—14

.6

335

—38

3 13

.6

—14

.6

335

—40

7 14

.8

—18

.6

Latin

Am

eric

a52

1.9

56

—61

1.

9 —

2.3

64

—83

1.

9 —

2.3

75

—11

5 3.

0 —

5.0

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

150

6.3

154

—16

0 6.

6 —

7.1

160

—17

5 6.

6 —

7.1

169

—19

6 7.

6 —

11.5

East

ern

Euro

pe13

0

4.

2

13

8 —

150

4.4

—4.

8 16

1 —

195

4.4

—4.

8 18

7 —

250

6.2

—10

.1

Afric

a26

0.6

25

—28

0.

6 —

0.6

26

—31

0.

6 —

0.6

26

—35

0.

7 —

1.1

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

28

0.

7

30

—

33

0.7

—0.

9 33

—

42

0.7

—0.

9 38

—

53

1.0

—1.

7

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic54

1.6

58

—65

1.

8 —

1.9

65

—84

1.

8 —

1.9

75

—10

9 2.

4 —

3.3

Far E

ast

56

2.

2

60

—

68

2.3

—2.

8 69

—

91

2.3

—2.

8 81

—

123

3.1

—5.

9

Wor

ld A

vera

ge71

2.6

72

—78

2.

6 —

2.9

76

—92

2.

6 —

2.9

81

—11

1 3.

0 —

4.8

Cou

ntry

Gro

upEn

ergy

C

onsu

mpt

ion

per

Cap

ita (G

J/ca

p.)

2020

Ener

gy

Con

sum

ptio

n pe

r C

apita

(GJ/

cap.

)

Elec

trici

ty

Con

sum

ptio

n pe

r C

apita

(MW

.h/c

ap)

2030

Ener

gy

Con

sum

ptio

n pe

r C

apita

(GJ/

cap.

)

Elec

trici

ty

Con

sum

ptio

n pe

r C

apita

(MW

.h/c

ap)

2004

2010

Elec

trici

ty

Con

sum

ptio

n pe

r C

apita

(MW

.h/c

ap)

Ener

gy

Con

sum

ptio

n pe

r C

apita

(GJ/

cap.

)

Elec

trici

ty

Con

sum

ptio

n pe

r C

apita

(MW

.h/c

ap)

43


FIGURE 8. PER CAPITA ENERGY CONSUMPTION

0

100

200

300

400

500

2004

2010

2020

2030

GJ

per c

apita

44


2004

2010

2020

2030

High EstimateLow Estimate

45


FIGURE 9. PER CAPITA ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2004

2010

2020

2030

MW

·hpe

r cap

ita

46


2004

2010

2020

2030

High EstimateLow Estimate

47

TABL

E 12

. AVE

RAG

E AN

NUAL

GRO

WTH

RAT

ES D

URIN

G T

HE P

ERIO

D 19

94—

2004

(%)

Coun

try G

roup

Popu

latio

nTo

tal E

nerg

y Co

nsum

ptio

nTo

tal E

lect

ricity

Co

nsum

ptio

nNu

clea

r Ene

rgy

Cons

umpt

ion

Nucl

ear C

apac

ity

Nor

th A

mer

ica

1.1

1.4

1.8

1.7

-0.5

Lat

in A

mer

ica

1.5

1.7

3.8

9.4

3.7

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

0.5

1.4

2.1

1.5

0.3

Eas

tern

Eur

ope

-0.2

-0.3

0.5

3.0

1.2

Afri

ca2.

3

3.

4

3.

9

4.

0

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

1.9

4.0

4.9

13.4

6.0

Sou

th E

ast A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic1.

4

3.

1

4.

9

Far

Eas

t0.

9

3.

3

5.

8

3.

0

2.

8

Wor

ld A

vera

ge1.

3

2.

0

3.

0

2.

1

0.

7

49


FIGURE 10. AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES

-6

0

6

12

Annu

al G

row

th R

ate

(%)

Population

Total Energy Consumption

Total Electricity Consumption

Nuclear Energy Consumption

DURING THE PERIOD 1994—2004

50


51

TABL

E 13

. EST

IMAT

ES O

F AV

ERAG

E AN

NUAL

GRO

WTH

RAT

ES D

URIN

G T

HE P

ERIO

D 20

04—

2030

(%)

Coun

try G

roup

Popu

latio

n

Nor

th A

mer

ica

0.8

0.

7 —

1.5

1.

1 —

2.0

0.

2 —

1.1

0.

1 —

1.0

Lat

in A

mer

ica

1.0

2.

4 —

4.1

2.

7 —

4.7

1.

6 —

5.4

1.

3 —

5.1

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

0.2

0.

6 —

1.2

0.

9 —

2.5

-1

.4

—0.

9

-1.7

—

0.6

Eas

tern

Eur

ope

-0.3

1.

2 —

2.3

1.

3 —

3.2

1.

6 —

3.1

1.

1 —

2.6

Afri

ca1.

8

1.9

—3.

1

2.4

—4.

6

0.8

—6.

7

0.6

—6.

5

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

1.3

2.

5 —

3.9

2.

6 —

4.6

7.

6 —

11.4

7.

1 —

10.8

Sou

th E

ast A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic0.

9

2.1

—3.

6

2.5

—3.

7

Far

Eas

t0.

4

1.9

—3.

5

1.8

—4.

3

2.5

—3.

9

2.3

—3.

6

Wor

ld A

vera

ge0.

9

1.5

—2.

7

1.6

—3.

4

0.7

—2.

3

0.5

—2.

2

Tota

l Ene

rgy

Requ

irem

ent

Tota

l Ele

ctric

ity

Cons

umpt

ion

Nucl

ear E

nerg

y Pr

oduc

tion

Nucl

ear C

apac

ity

53

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