energy, electricity and nuclear power estimatesinternational atomic energy agency vienna isbn...
TRANSCRIPT
I N T E R N AT I O N A L AT O M I C E N E R G Y A G E N C YV I E N N A
I S B N 97 8 - 9 2 - 0 - 1 0 8 0 1 0 - 3I S S N 1 0 1 1 - 2 6 4 2
Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050
R E f E R E N C E d ATA S E R I E S No. 1 2010 Edition
@10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_cover.indd 1 2010-09-01 15:35:43
REFERENCE DATA SERIES No. 1
energy, electricity and nuclear power estimates for the period up to 2050
2010 Edition
INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCYVIENNA, 2010
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ENERGY, ELECTRICITY AND NuCLEAR pOwER ESTIMATES FOR ThE pERIOD up TO 2050
IAEA-RDS-1/30ISBN 978–92–0–108010–3
ISSN 1011–2642
printed by the IAEA in AustriaAugust 2010
contents
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Grouping of countries and areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Table 1. Nuclear power reactors in the world (end of 2009) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12Figure 1. Nuclear share of total electricity generation in 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14Table 2. Number of countries with nuclear power reactors in operation or under construction (end of 2009) . . . . . . . . . 15Table 3. Estimates of total and nuclear electrical generating capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . 17Figure 2. Total and nuclear electrical generating capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18Table 4. Estimates of total electricity generation and contribution by nuclear power . . . . . . . 21Figure 3. percentage of electricity supplied by nuclear power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22Table 5. Estimates of total energy requirement (EJ), percentage used for electricity generation, and percentage supplied by nuclear energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25Figure 4. Estimates of total energy requirement . . . . . 26Table 6. Total energy requirement (EJ) by type of fuel in 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29Figure 5. Total energy requirement by fuel type in 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30Figure 6. Breakdown of world total energy requirement during the period 1970–2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32Table 7. Fuel shares (%) of total energy requirement in 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35Table 8. Fuel use (EJ) for electricity generation by type of fuel in 2009 . . . . . . . . 36Table 9. percentage contribution of each fuel type to electricity generation in 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37Table 10. Estimates of population growth by region . . 39Figure 7. population estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40Table 11. Estimates of total energy and electricity requirement per capita . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
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ENERGY, ELECTRICITY AND NuCLEAR pOwER ESTIMATES FOR ThE pERIOD up TO 2050
IAEA-RDS-1/30ISBN 978–92–0–108010–3
ISSN 1011–2642
printed by the IAEA in AustriaAugust 2010
contents
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Grouping of countries and areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Table 1. Nuclear power reactors in the world (end of 2009) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Figure 1. Nuclear share of total electricity generation in 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Table 2. Number of countries with nuclear power reactors in operation or under construction (end of 2009) . . . . . . . . . 15 Table 3. Estimates of total and nuclear electrical generating capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Figure 2. Total and nuclear electrical generating capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Table 4. Estimates of total electricity generation and contribution by nuclear power . . . . . . . 21 Figure 3. percentage of electricity supplied by nuclear power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Table 5. Estimates of total energy requirement (EJ), percentage used for electricity generation, and percentage supplied by nuclear energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Figure 4. Estimates of total energy requirement . . . . . 26 Table 6. Total energy requirement (EJ) by type of fuel in 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Figure 5. Total energy requirement by fuel type in 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Figure 6. Breakdown of world total energy requirement during the period 1970–2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Table 7. Fuel shares (%) of total energy requirement in 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Table 8. Fuel use (EJ) for electricity generation by type of fuel in 2009 . . . . . . . . 36 Table 9. percentage contribution of each fuel type to electricity generation in 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Table 10. Estimates of population growth by region . . 39 Figure 7. population estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 Table 11. Estimates of total energy and electricity requirement per capita . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
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Figure 8. Total energy requirement per capita . . . . . . . 44Figure 9. Total electricity requirement per capita . . . . . 46Table 12. Average annual growth rates during the period 1999–2009 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49Figure 10. Average annual growth rates during the period 1999–2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50Table 13. Estimates of average annual
growth rates during the period 2009–2030 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
introductionReference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is an annual
publication — currently in its thirtieth edition — containing estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the year 2050.
RDS-1 starts with a summary of the situation of nuclear power in IAEA Member States as of the end of 2009. The data on nuclear power presented in Tables 1 and 2 are based on actual statistical data collected by the IAEA’s power Reactor Information System (pRIS). Energy and electricity data for 2009, however, are estimated, since the latest available information from the united Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs is for 2007. population data originate from the world population prospects (2008 revision), published by the population Division of the united Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, and the 2009 values again are estimates.
As in the past, projections of future needs of energy, electricity and nuclear power are presented as low and high estimates encompassing the inherent uncertainties involved in projecting trends. The RDS-1 estimates should be viewed as very general growth trends whose validity must be constantly subjected to critical review.
Beginning with the 30th edition of this publication, however, the end-point of the estimates is extended up to the year 2050 (instead of 2030). Looking beyond 2030 is prompted by the interest expressed by numerous Member States currently without nuclear power in adding nuclear energy to their future national energy supply mixes. Given the lead times in planning and implementing nuclear power programmes, a fair share of these are likely to result in actual plant commissioning and grid connection after 2030.
Many international, national and private organizations routinely engage in energy demand and supply projections, including nuclear power. These projections are based on a multitude of different assumptions and aggregating procedures, which make a straightforward comparison and synthesis very difficult. The basic differences refer to such fundamental input assumptions as:
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Figure 8. Total energy requirement per capita . . . . . . . 44Figure 9. Total electricity requirement per capita . . . . . 46Table 12. Average annual growth rates during the period 1999–2009 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49Figure 10. Average annual growth rates during the period 1999–2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50Table 13. Estimates of average annual
growth rates during the period 2009–2030 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
introductionReference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is an annual
publication — currently in its thirtieth edition — containing estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the year 2050.
RDS-1 starts with a summary of the situation of nuclear power in IAEA Member States as of the end of 2009. The data on nuclear power presented in Tables 1 and 2 are based on actual statistical data collected by the IAEA’s power Reactor Information System (pRIS). Energy and electricity data for 2009, however, are estimated, since the latest available information from the united Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs is for 2007. population data originate from the world population prospects (2008 revision), published by the population Division of the united Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, and the 2009 values again are estimates.
As in the past, projections of future needs of energy, electricity and nuclear power are presented as low and high estimates encompassing the inherent uncertainties involved in projecting trends. The RDS-1 estimates should be viewed as very general growth trends whose validity must be constantly subjected to critical review.
Beginning with the 30th edition of this publication, however, the end-point of the estimates is extended up to the year 2050 (instead of 2030). Looking beyond 2030 is prompted by the interest expressed by numerous Member States currently without nuclear power in adding nuclear energy to their future national energy supply mixes. Given the lead times in planning and implementing nuclear power programmes, a fair share of these are likely to result in actual plant commissioning and grid connection after 2030.
Many international, national and private organizations routinely engage in energy demand and supply projections, including nuclear power. These projections are based on a multitude of different assumptions and aggregating procedures, which make a straightforward comparison and synthesis very difficult. The basic differences refer to such fundamental input assumptions as:
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• Economic growth;• Correlation of economic growth and energy use;• Technology performance and costs;• Energy resource availability and future fuel prices;• Energy policy and physical, environmental and
economic constraints.
The projections presented in this booklet are based on a compromise among:
• National projections supplied by each country for a recent OECD/NEA study;
• Indicators of development published by the world Bank in its world Development Indicators;
• Global and regional energy, electricity and nuclear power projections made by other international organizations.
More specifically, the estimates of nuclear generating capacity presented in Table 3 are derived from a country by country ‘bottom up’ approach. They are established by a group of experts participating each year in the IAEA’s consultancy on Nuclear Capacity projections and based upon a review of nuclear power projects and programmes in Member States.
The low and high estimates reflect contrasting but not extreme underlying assumptions on the different driving factors that have an impact on nuclear power deployment. These factors, and the ways they might evolve, vary from country to country. The estimates presented provide a plausible range of nuclear capacity growth by region and worldwide. They are not intended to be predictive nor to reflect the whole range of possible futures from the lowest to the highest feasible.
The low case represents expectations about the future if current trends continued and there were few changes in policies affecting nuclear power other than those already in the pipeline.
This case was explicitly designed to produce a ‘conservative but plausible’ set of projections. Additionally, the low case did not automatically assume that targets for nuclear power growth in a particular country would necessarily be achieved. These assumptions are relaxed in the high case.
The high case projections are much more optimistic, but still plausible and technically feasible. The high case assumes that the current financial and economic crises will be overcome in the not so distant future and past rates of economic growth and electricity demand, especially in the Far East, would essentially resume. In addition, the high case assumes the implementation of stringent policies globally targeted at mitigating climate change.
In the presence of the current financial and economic crises, developing the 2009 and 2010 nuclear power projections posed a considerable challenge. The 2010 projections are based on the rationale that the long lead times associated with the implementation of nuclear power plants may temporarily delay some projects but the underlying fundamentals of population growth, development, demand for electricity, climate change concerns, security of energy supply and the quest for stable electricity generating costs point to continued strong growth in the longer term. worsening and prolonged economic and/or financial difficulties could, however, dramatically affect the projections developed, particularly in the high case.
The data on electricity produced by nuclear power plants is converted to joules based on the average efficiency of a nuclear power plant, i.e. 33%; data on electricity generated by geothermal heat is converted to joules based on the average efficiency of a geothermal power plant, i.e. 10%. The conversion to joules of electricity generated by hydropower or by the other non-thermal sources such as wind, tide and solar is based on the energy content of the electricity generated (the equivalent of assuming a 100% efficiency).
The total energy requirement has been calculated by summing the primary energy production, the net energy trade minus changes in international bunkers and domestic stocks.
The values shown in Table 9 refer to primary energy used for the generation of electricity. Owing to differences in conversion efficiencies, the percentage values are different from the shares of electricity generation presented in Tables 1 and 5.
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• Economic growth;• Correlation of economic growth and energy use;• Technology performance and costs;• Energy resource availability and future fuel prices;• Energy policy and physical, environmental and
economic constraints.
The projections presented in this booklet are based on a compromise among:
• National projections supplied by each country for a recent OECD/NEA study;
• Indicators of development published by the world Bank in its world Development Indicators;
• Global and regional energy, electricity and nuclear power projections made by other international organizations.
More specifically, the estimates of nuclear generating capacity presented in Table 3 are derived from a country by country ‘bottom up’ approach. They are established by a group of experts participating each year in the IAEA’s consultancy on Nuclear Capacity projections and based upon a review of nuclear power projects and programmes in Member States.
The low and high estimates reflect contrasting but not extreme underlying assumptions on the different driving factors that have an impact on nuclear power deployment. These factors, and the ways they might evolve, vary from country to country. The estimates presented provide a plausible range of nuclear capacity growth by region and worldwide. They are not intended to be predictive nor to reflect the whole range of possible futures from the lowest to the highest feasible.
The low case represents expectations about the future if current trends continued and there were few changes in policies affecting nuclear power other than those already in the pipeline.
This case was explicitly designed to produce a ‘conservative but plausible’ set of projections. Additionally, the low case did not automatically assume that targets for nuclear power growth in a particular country would necessarily be achieved. These assumptions are relaxed in the high case.
The high case projections are much more optimistic, but still plausible and technically feasible. The high case assumes that the current financial and economic crises will be overcome in the not so distant future and past rates of economic growth and electricity demand, especially in the Far East, would essentially resume. In addition, the high case assumes the implementation of stringent policies globally targeted at mitigating climate change.
In the presence of the current financial and economic crises, developing the 2009 and 2010 nuclear power projections posed a considerable challenge. The 2010 projections are based on the rationale that the long lead times associated with the implementation of nuclear power plants may temporarily delay some projects but the underlying fundamentals of population growth, development, demand for electricity, climate change concerns, security of energy supply and the quest for stable electricity generating costs point to continued strong growth in the longer term. worsening and prolonged economic and/or financial difficulties could, however, dramatically affect the projections developed, particularly in the high case.
The data on electricity produced by nuclear power plants is converted to joules based on the average efficiency of a nuclear power plant, i.e. 33%; data on electricity generated by geothermal heat is converted to joules based on the average efficiency of a geothermal power plant, i.e. 10%. The conversion to joules of electricity generated by hydropower or by the other non-thermal sources such as wind, tide and solar is based on the energy content of the electricity generated (the equivalent of assuming a 100% efficiency).
The total energy requirement has been calculated by summing the primary energy production, the net energy trade minus changes in international bunkers and domestic stocks.
The values shown in Table 9 refer to primary energy used for the generation of electricity. Owing to differences in conversion efficiencies, the percentage values are different from the shares of electricity generation presented in Tables 1 and 5.
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energy units
1 Mw(e) = 106 watts (electrical)1 Gw(e) = 1000 Mw(e) = 109 watts (electrical)1 GJ = 1 gigajoule = 109 joules1 EJ = 1 exajoule = 1018 joules1 EJ = 23.9 megatonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe)1 Tw·h = 1 terawatt-hour = 109 kw·h = 3.6 × 10–3 EJ
N o r t h A m e r i c a C a n a d a * U n i t e d S t a t e s o f A m e r i c a *
L a t i n A m e r i c a A n g u i l l a H a i t i * A n t i g u a a n d B a r b u d a H o n d u r a s * A r g e n t i n a * J a m a i c a * A r u b a M a r t i n i q u e B a h a m a s M e x i c o * B a r b a d o s M o n t s e r r a t B e l i z e N e t h e r l a n d s A n t i l l e s B e r m u d a N i c a r a g u a * B o l i v i a * P a n a m a * B r a z i l * P a r a g u a y * C a y m a n I s l a n d s P e r u * C h i l e * P u e r t o R i c o C o l o m b i a * S . G e o r g i a & S . S a n d w i c h I s l a n d s C o s t a R i c a * S a i n t K i t t s a n d N e v i s C u b a * S a i n t L u c i a D o m i n i c a S a i n t P i e r r e a n d M i q u e l o n D o m i n i c a n R e p u b l i c * S a i n t V i n c e n t & t h e G r e n a d i n e s E c u a d o r * S u r i n a m e E l S a l v a d o r * T r i n i d a d a n d T o b a g o G r e n a d a T u r k s a n d C a i c o s I s l a n d s G u a d e l o u p e U r u g u a y * G u a t e m a l a * V e n e z u e l a * G u y a n a
W e s t e r n E u r o p e A n d o r r a L i e c h t e n s t e i n * A u s t r i a * L u x e m b o u r g * B e l g i u m * M a l t a * C y p r u s * M o n a c o * D e n m a r k * N e t h e r l a n d s * F i n l a n d * N o r w a y * F r a n c e * P o r t u g a l * G e r m a n y * S a n M a r i n o G i b r a l t a r S p a i n * G r e e c e * S v a l b a r d a n d J a n M a y e n I s l a n d s G r e e n l a n d S w e d e n * H o l y S e e * S w i t z e r l a n d * I c e l a n d * T u r k e y * I r e l a n d * U n i t e d K i n g d o m * I t a l y *
G R O U P I N G O F C O U N T R I E S A N D A R E A S
T h e c o u n t r i e s a n d g e o g r a p h i c a l a r e a s i n c l u d e d i n e a c h g r o u p i n g a r e l i s t e d b e l o w
( I A E A M e m b e r S t a t e s a r e d e n o t e d b y a n a s t e r i s k )
*
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energy units
1 Mw(e) = 106 watts (electrical)1 Gw(e) = 1000 Mw(e) = 109 watts (electrical)1 GJ = 1 gigajoule = 109 joules1 EJ = 1 exajoule = 1018 joules1 EJ = 23.9 megatonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe)1 Tw·h = 1 terawatt-hour = 109 kw·h = 3.6 × 10–3 EJ
N o r t h A m e r i c a C a n a d a * U n i t e d S t a t e s o f A m e r i c a *
L a t i n A m e r i c a A n g u i l l a H a i t i * A n t i g u a a n d B a r b u d a H o n d u r a s * A r g e n t i n a * J a m a i c a * A r u b a M a r t i n i q u e B a h a m a s M e x i c o * B a r b a d o s M o n t s e r r a t B e l i z e N e t h e r l a n d s A n t i l l e s B e r m u d a N i c a r a g u a * B o l i v i a * P a n a m a * B r a z i l * P a r a g u a y * C a y m a n I s l a n d s P e r u * C h i l e * P u e r t o R i c o C o l o m b i a * S . G e o r g i a & S . S a n d w i c h I s l a n d s C o s t a R i c a * S a i n t K i t t s a n d N e v i s C u b a * S a i n t L u c i a D o m i n i c a S a i n t P i e r r e a n d M i q u e l o n D o m i n i c a n R e p u b l i c * S a i n t V i n c e n t & t h e G r e n a d i n e s E c u a d o r * S u r i n a m e E l S a l v a d o r * T r i n i d a d a n d T o b a g o G r e n a d a T u r k s a n d C a i c o s I s l a n d s G u a d e l o u p e U r u g u a y * G u a t e m a l a * V e n e z u e l a * G u y a n a
W e s t e r n E u r o p e A n d o r r a L i e c h t e n s t e i n * A u s t r i a * L u x e m b o u r g * B e l g i u m * M a l t a * C y p r u s * M o n a c o * D e n m a r k * N e t h e r l a n d s * F i n l a n d * N o r w a y * F r a n c e * P o r t u g a l * G e r m a n y * S a n M a r i n o G i b r a l t a r S p a i n * G r e e c e * S v a l b a r d a n d J a n M a y e n I s l a n d s G r e e n l a n d S w e d e n * H o l y S e e * S w i t z e r l a n d * I c e l a n d * T u r k e y * I r e l a n d * U n i t e d K i n g d o m * I t a l y *
G R O U P I N G O F C O U N T R I E S A N D A R E A S
T h e c o u n t r i e s a n d g e o g r a p h i c a l a r e a s i n c l u d e d i n e a c h g r o u p i n g a r e l i s t e d b e l o w
( I A E A M e m b e r S t a t e s a r e d e n o t e d b y a n a s t e r i s k )
*
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AfricaAlgeria* Malawi*Angola* Mali*Benin* Mauritania*Botswana* Mauritius*Burkina Faso* MayotteBurundii* Morocco*Cameroo o n * Mozambique*Cape Verdee* Namibia*Central Africaa n Republic* Niger*Chad Nigeria*Comoros ReunionCongoo* Rwanda*Côte d'II voire* Saint HelenaDemocratic Rep. of the Congo* Sao Tome and PrincipeDjibouti Senegal*Egypt* Seychelles*Equatorial Guinea Sierra Leone*Eritrea* SomaliaEthiopia* South Africa*Gabon* Sudan*Gambia SwazilandGhana* TogoGuinea Tunisia*Guinea-Bissau Uganda*Kenya* United Republic of Tanzania*Lesotho* Western SaharaLiberia* Zambia*Libyan Arab Jamahiriya* Zimbabwe*Madagascar*
Eastern EuropeAlbania* Lithuania*Armenia* Montenegro*
Poland*Azerbaijan*Republic of Moldova*Belarus*Romania*Bosnia and Herzegovina*Russian Federation*Bulgaria*Serbia*Croatia*Slovakia*Czech Republic*Slovenia*Estonia*Tajikistan*Georgia*The Frmr.Yug.Rep. of Macedonia*Hungary*TurkmenistanKazakhstan*Ukraine*Kyrgyzstan*Uzbekistan*Latvia*
*
*
M i d d l e E a s t a n d S o u t h A s i a A f g h a n i s t a n * K u w a i t * B a h r a i n* L e b a n o n * B a n g l a d e s h * N e p a l* B h u t a n O m a n* B r i t i s h I n d i a n O c e a n T e r r i t o r y P a k i s t a n * C o c o s ( K e e l i n g ) I s l a n d s Q a t a r * F r e n c h S o u t h e r n T e r r i t o r i e s S a u d i A r a b i a * H e a r d I s l a n d & M c D o n a l d I s l a n d s S r i L a n k a * I n d i a * S y r i a n A r a b R e p u b l i c * I r a n , I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c o f * T . T . U . T . J o f T . P a l e s t i n i a n A . I r a q * U n i t e d A r a b E m i r a t e s * I s r a e l * Y e m e n * J o r d a n *
S o u t h E a s t A s i a a n d t h e P a c i f i c A u s t r a l i a * N o r t h e r n M a r i a n a I s l a n d s B r u n e i D a r u s s a l a m P a l a u* C o o k I s l a n d s P a p u a N e w G u i n e a* F i j i P i t c a i r n I s l a n d s I n d o n e s i a * S a m o a K i r i b a t i S i n g a p o r e * M a l a y s i a * S o l o m o n I s l a n d s M a l d i v e s T h a i l a n d * M a r s h a l l I s l a n d s * T i m o r L e s t e M i c r o n e s i a ( F e d . S t a t e s o f ) T o k e l a u M y a n m a r * T u v a l u N e w Z e a l a n d * U S M i n o r O u t l y i n g I s l a n d s N i u e V a n u a t u N o r f o l k I s l a n d s W a l l i s a n d F u t u n a I s l a n d s
F a r E a s t C a m b o d i a* M a c a u , C h i n a C h i n a * M o n g o l i a * D e m . P . R . o f K o r e a P h i l i p p i n e s * J a p a n * T a i w a n , C h i n a K o r e a , R e p u b l i c o f * V i e t n a m * L a o P . D . R .
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AfricaAlgeria* Malawi*Angola* Mali*Benin* Mauritania*Botswana* Mauritius*Burkina Faso* MayotteBurundii* Morocco*Cameroo o n * Mozambique*Cape Verdee* Namibia*Central Africaa n Republic* Niger*Chad Nigeria*Comoros ReunionCongoo* Rwanda*Côte d'II voire* Saint HelenaDemocratic Rep. of the Congo* Sao Tome and PrincipeDjibouti Senegal*Egypt* Seychelles*Equatorial Guinea Sierra Leone*Eritrea* SomaliaEthiopia* South Africa*Gabon* Sudan*Gambia SwazilandGhana* TogoGuinea Tunisia*Guinea-Bissau Uganda*Kenya* United Republic of Tanzania*Lesotho* Western SaharaLiberia* Zambia*Libyan Arab Jamahiriya* Zimbabwe*Madagascar*
Eastern EuropeAlbania* Lithuania*Armenia* Montenegro*
Poland*Azerbaijan*Republic of Moldova*Belarus*Romania*Bosnia and Herzegovina*Russian Federation*Bulgaria*Serbia*Croatia*Slovakia*Czech Republic*Slovenia*Estonia*Tajikistan*Georgia*The Frmr.Yug.Rep. of Macedonia*Hungary*TurkmenistanKazakhstan*Ukraine*Kyrgyzstan*Uzbekistan*Latvia*
*
*
M i d d l e E a s t a n d S o u t h A s i a A f g h a n i s t a n * K u w a i t * B a h r a i n* L e b a n o n * B a n g l a d e s h * N e p a l* B h u t a n O m a n* B r i t i s h I n d i a n O c e a n T e r r i t o r y P a k i s t a n * C o c o s ( K e e l i n g ) I s l a n d s Q a t a r * F r e n c h S o u t h e r n T e r r i t o r i e s S a u d i A r a b i a * H e a r d I s l a n d & M c D o n a l d I s l a n d s S r i L a n k a * I n d i a * S y r i a n A r a b R e p u b l i c * I r a n , I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c o f * T . T . U . T . J o f T . P a l e s t i n i a n A . I r a q * U n i t e d A r a b E m i r a t e s * I s r a e l * Y e m e n * J o r d a n *
S o u t h E a s t A s i a a n d t h e P a c i f i c A u s t r a l i a * N o r t h e r n M a r i a n a I s l a n d s B r u n e i D a r u s s a l a m P a l a u* C o o k I s l a n d s P a p u a N e w G u i n e a* F i j i P i t c a i r n I s l a n d s I n d o n e s i a * S a m o a K i r i b a t i S i n g a p o r e * M a l a y s i a * S o l o m o n I s l a n d s M a l d i v e s T h a i l a n d * M a r s h a l l I s l a n d s * T i m o r L e s t e M i c r o n e s i a ( F e d . S t a t e s o f ) T o k e l a u M y a n m a r * T u v a l u N e w Z e a l a n d * U S M i n o r O u t l y i n g I s l a n d s N i u e V a n u a t u N o r f o l k I s l a n d s W a l l i s a n d F u t u n a I s l a n d s
F a r E a s t C a m b o d i a* M a c a u , C h i n a C h i n a * M o n g o l i a * D e m . P . R . o f K o r e a P h i l i p p i n e s * J a p a n * T a i w a n , C h i n a K o r e a , R e p u b l i c o f * V i e t n a m * L a o P . D . R .
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 11 2010-09-01 15:33:21
12
TABL
E 1.
NU
CLEA
R PO
WER
REA
CTO
RS IN
TH
E W
ORL
D (
end
of 2
009)
Gro
up a
nd C
ount
ry
In O
pera
tion
Und
er C
onst
ruct
ion
Num
ber
of U
nits
Tota
l MW
(e)
Num
ber
of U
nits
Tota
l MW
(e)
Num
ber
of U
nits
Tota
l MW
(e)
TW·h
Per
cent
of
Tota
l Ele
ctri
city
Nor
th A
mer
ica
C
anad
a18
1256
9
4
2726
85.1
14.8
U
nite
d St
ates
of
Amer
ica
104
1007
47
1
1165
796.
9
20
.2
La
tin
Am
eric
a
Arg
enti
na2
935
1
69
2
7.
6
6.
9
Bra
zil
2
18
84
12
.2
2.
9
Mex
ico
2
13
00
10
.1
4.
8
W
este
rn E
urop
e
Bel
gium
7
59
02
45
.0
51
.7
Fin
land
4
26
96
1
1600
22.6
32.9
F
ranc
e59
6326
0
1
1600
391.
8
75
.2
Ger
man
y17
2048
0
12
7.7
26.1
N
ethe
rlan
ds1
487
4.0
3.7
S
pain
8
74
50
50
.6
17
.5
Sw
eden
10
90
36
50
.0
37
.4
Sw
itze
rlan
d5
3238
26.3
39.5
U
nite
d Ki
ngdo
m19
1013
7
62
.9
17
.9
Ea
ster
n Eu
rope
A
rmen
ia1
375
2.3
44.9
B
ulga
ria
2
19
06
2
1906
14.2
35.9
C
zech
Rep
ublic
6
36
78
25
.7
33
.8
Hun
gary
4
18
89
14
.3
43
.0
Long
-ter
m S
hut
Dow
n Re
acto
rsEl
ectr
icit
y Su
pplie
d by
Nuc
lear
Pow
er R
eact
ors
in 2
009
TABL
E 1.
NU
CLEA
R PO
WER
REA
CTO
RS IN
TH
E W
ORL
D (
end
of 2
009)
Gro
up a
nd C
ount
ry
In O
pera
tion
Und
er C
onst
ruct
ion
Num
ber
of U
nits
Tota
l MW
(e)
Num
ber
of U
nits
Tota
l MW
(e)
Num
ber
of U
nits
Tota
l MW
(e)
TW·h
Per
cent
of
Tota
l Ele
ctri
city
L
ithu
ania
(a)
1
11
85
10
.0
76
.2
Rom
ania
2
13
00
10
.8
20
.6
Rus
sian
Fed
erat
ion
31
21
743
9
69
96
15
2.8
17.8
S
lova
kia
4
17
62
2
782
13.1
53.5
S
love
nia
1
66
6
5.
5
37
.8
Ukr
aine
15
13
107
2
19
00
78
.0
48
.6
A
fric
a
Sou
th A
fric
a2
1800
11.6
4.8
Mid
dle
East
and
Sou
th A
sia
I
ndia
18
39
87
5
2708
14.8
2.2
I
ran,
Isla
mic
Rep
ublic
of
1
91
5
Pak
ista
n2
425
1
30
0
2.
6
2.
7
Fa
r Ea
st
Chi
na11
8438
20
19
920
65.7
1.9
J
apan
54
46
823
1
24
6
1
1325
263.
1
28
.9
Kor
ea,
Repu
blic
of
20
17
705
6
65
20
14
1.1
34.8
Wor
ld T
otal
(b)
438
3718
90
5
2972
55
50
929
2558
.1
13
.8
Not
es:
(a)
Last
uni
t w
as s
hut
dow
n on
31
Dec
embe
r 20
09;
(b)
Incl
udin
g th
e fo
llow
ing
data
on
Taiw
an,
Chin
a:
— 6
uni
ts o
n op
erat
ion
wit
h to
tal c
apac
ity
of 4
949
MW
(e);
2 u
nits
und
er c
onst
ruct
ion
wit
h to
tal c
apac
ity
of 2
600
MW
(e);
Long
-ter
m S
hut
Dow
n Re
acto
rsEl
ectr
icit
y Su
pplie
d by
Nuc
lear
Pow
er R
eact
ors
in 2
008
—
39.
9 TW
·h o
f nu
clea
r el
ectr
icit
y ge
nera
tion
, re
pres
enti
ng 2
0.65
% o
f th
e to
tal e
lect
rici
ty g
ener
ated
.
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 12 2010-09-01 15:33:21
13
TABL
E 1.
NU
CLEA
R PO
WER
REA
CTO
RS IN
TH
E W
ORL
D (
end
of 2
009)
Gro
up a
nd C
ount
ry
In O
pera
tion
Und
er C
onst
ruct
ion
Num
ber
of U
nits
Tota
l MW
(e)
Num
ber
of U
nits
Tota
l MW
(e)
Num
ber
of U
nits
Tota
l MW
(e)
TW·h
Per
cent
of
Tota
l Ele
ctri
city
Nor
th A
mer
ica
C
anad
a18
1256
9
4
2726
85.1
14.8
U
nite
d St
ates
of
Amer
ica
104
1007
47
1
1165
796.
9
20
.2
La
tin
Am
eric
a
Arg
enti
na2
935
1
69
2
7.
6
6.
9
Bra
zil
2
18
84
12
.2
2.
9
Mex
ico
2
13
00
10
.1
4.
8
W
este
rn E
urop
e
Bel
gium
7
59
02
45
.0
51
.7
Fin
land
4
26
96
1
1600
22.6
32.9
F
ranc
e59
6326
0
1
1600
391.
8
75
.2
Ger
man
y17
2048
0
12
7.7
26.1
N
ethe
rlan
ds1
487
4.0
3.7
S
pain
8
74
50
50
.6
17
.5
Sw
eden
10
90
36
50
.0
37
.4
Sw
itze
rlan
d5
3238
26.3
39.5
U
nite
d Ki
ngdo
m19
1013
7
62
.9
17
.9
Ea
ster
n Eu
rope
A
rmen
ia1
375
2.3
44.9
B
ulga
ria
2
19
06
2
1906
14.2
35.9
C
zech
Rep
ublic
6
36
78
25
.7
33
.8
Hun
gary
4
18
89
14
.3
43
.0
Long
-ter
m S
hut
Dow
n Re
acto
rsEl
ectr
icit
y Su
pplie
d by
Nuc
lear
Pow
er R
eact
ors
in 2
008
TABL
E 1.
NU
CLEA
R PO
WER
REA
CTO
RS IN
TH
E W
ORL
D (
end
of 2
009)
Gro
up a
nd C
ount
ry
In O
pera
tion
Und
er C
onst
ruct
ion
Num
ber
of U
nits
Tota
l MW
(e)
Num
ber
of U
nits
Tota
l MW
(e)
Num
ber
of U
nits
Tota
l MW
(e)
TW·h
Per
cent
of
Tota
l Ele
ctri
city
L
ithu
ania
(a)
1
11
85
10
.0
76
.2
Rom
ania
2
13
00
10
.8
20
.6
Rus
sian
Fed
erat
ion
31
21
743
9
69
96
15
2.8
17.8
S
lova
kia
4
17
62
2
782
13.1
53.5
S
love
nia
1
66
6
5.
5
37
.8
Ukr
aine
15
13
107
2
19
00
78
.0
48
.6
A
fric
a
Sou
th A
fric
a2
1800
11.6
4.8
Mid
dle
East
and
Sou
th A
sia
I
ndia
18
39
87
5
2708
14.8
2.2
I
ran,
Isla
mic
Rep
ublic
of
1
91
5
Pak
ista
n2
425
1
30
0
2.
6
2.
7
Fa
r Ea
st
Chi
na11
8438
20
19
920
65.7
1.9
J
apan
54
46
823
1
24
6
1
1325
263.
1
28
.9
Kor
ea,
Repu
blic
of
20
17
705
6
65
20
14
1.1
34.8
Wor
ld T
otal
(b)
438
3718
90
5
2972
55
50
929
2558
.1
13
.8
Not
es:
(a)
Last
uni
t w
as s
hut
dow
n on
31
Dec
embe
r 20
09;
(b)
Incl
udin
g th
e fo
llow
ing
data
on
Taiw
an,
Chin
a:
— 6
uni
ts o
n op
erat
ion
wit
h to
tal c
apac
ity
of 4
949
MW
(e);
2 u
nits
und
er c
onst
ruct
ion
wit
h to
tal c
apac
ity
of 2
600
MW
(e);
Long
-ter
m S
hut
Dow
n Re
acto
rsEl
ectr
icit
y Su
pplie
d by
Nuc
lear
Pow
er R
eact
ors
in 2
009
—
39.
9 TW
·h o
f nu
clea
r el
ectr
icit
y ge
nera
tion
, re
pres
enti
ng 2
0.65
% o
f th
e to
tal e
lect
rici
ty g
ener
ated
.
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 13 2010-09-01 15:33:21
14
TABL
E 2.
NU
MBE
R O
F CO
UN
TRIE
S W
ITH
NU
CLEA
R PO
WER
REA
CTO
RS IN
OPE
RATI
ON
OR
UN
DER
CO
NST
RUCT
ION
(en
d of
200
9)
Coun
try
Gro
upN
umbe
r of
Cou
ntri
es in
Gro
upCo
untr
ies
wit
h N
ucle
ar P
ower
Rea
ctor
sIn
Ope
rati
onLo
ng t
erm
Shu
tdow
nU
nder
Con
stru
ctio
n (1
)To
tal (
2)
Nor
th A
mer
ica
2
2
1
1
2
Lati
n Am
eric
a45
3
1
3
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
29
9
2
9
East
ern
Euro
pe27
10
3
10
Afri
ca57
1
1
Mid
dle
East
and
Sou
th A
sia
25
2
3
3
Sout
h Ea
st A
sia
and
the
Paci
fic
27
Far
East
11
3
1
3
3
Wor
ld T
otal
223
30
2
13
31
Not
es:
(1)
May
incl
ude
coun
trie
s ha
ving
rea
ctor
s al
read
y in
ope
rati
on.
(2)
Tota
l num
ber
of c
ount
ries
in e
ach
grou
p th
at h
ave
nucl
ear
pow
er r
eact
ors
in o
pera
tion
, or
und
er c
onst
ruct
ion.
Note: the nuclear share of electricity generation in Taiwan, China was 20.7%.
FIGURE 1. NUCLEAR SHARE OF TOTAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 200
LITHUANIA
FRANCE
SLOVAKIA
BELGIUM
UKRAINE
ARMENIA
HUNGARY
SWITZERLAND
SLOVENIA
SWEDEN
BULGARIA
KOREA, REPUBLIC OF
CZECH REPUBLIC
FINLAND
JAPAN
GERMANY
ROMANIA
USA
UNITED KINGDOM
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
SPAIN
CANADA
ARGENTINA
SOUTH AFRICA
MEXICO
NETHERLANDS
BRAZIL
PAKISTAN
INDIA
CHINA
0 20 40 60 80 100
76.2
75.2
53.5
51.7
48.6
45.0
43.0
39.5
37.8
37.4
35.9
34.8
33.8
32.9
28.9
26.1
20.6
20.2
17.9
17.8
17.5
14.8
7.0
4.8
4.8
3.7
2.9
2.7
2.2
1.9
Nuclear Share (%)
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 14 2010-09-01 15:33:22
9
15
TABL
E 2.
NU
MBE
R O
F CO
UN
TRIE
S W
ITH
NU
CLEA
R PO
WER
REA
CTO
RS IN
OPE
RATI
ON
OR
UN
DER
CO
NST
RUCT
ION
(en
d of
200
9)
Coun
try
Gro
upN
umbe
r of
Cou
ntri
es in
Gro
upCo
untr
ies
wit
h N
ucle
ar P
ower
Rea
ctor
sIn
Ope
rati
onLo
ng t
erm
Shu
tdow
nU
nder
Con
stru
ctio
n (1
)To
tal (
2)
Nor
th A
mer
ica
2
2
1
1
2
Lati
n Am
eric
a45
3
1
3
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
29
9
2
9
East
ern
Euro
pe27
10
3
10
Afri
ca57
1
1
Mid
dle
East
and
Sou
th A
sia
25
2
3
3
Sout
h Ea
st A
sia
and
the
Paci
fic
27
Far
East
11
3
1
3
3
Wor
ld T
otal
223
30
2
13
31
Not
es:
(1)
May
incl
ude
coun
trie
s ha
ving
rea
ctor
s al
read
y in
ope
rati
on.
(2)
Tota
l num
ber
of c
ount
ries
in e
ach
grou
p th
at h
ave
nucl
ear
pow
er r
eact
ors
in o
pera
tion
, or
und
er c
onst
ruct
ion.
Note: the nuclear share of electricity generation in Taiwan, China was 20.7%.
FIGURE 1. NUCLEAR SHARE OF TOTAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 2008
LITHUANIA
FRANCE
SLOVAKIA
BELGIUM
UKRAINE
ARMENIA
HUNGARY
SWITZERLAND
SLOVENIA
SWEDEN
BULGARIA
KOREA, REPUBLIC OF
CZECH REPUBLIC
FINLAND
JAPAN
GERMANY
ROMANIA
USA
UNITED KINGDOM
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
SPAIN
CANADA
ARGENTINA
SOUTH AFRICA
MEXICO
NETHERLANDS
BRAZIL
PAKISTAN
INDIA
CHINA
0 20 40 60 80 100
76.2
75.2
53.5
51.7
48.6
45.0
43.0
39.5
37.8
37.4
35.9
34.8
33.8
32.9
28.9
26.1
20.6
20.2
17.9
17.8
17.5
14.8
7.0
4.8
4.8
3.7
2.9
2.7
2.2
1.9
Nuclear Share (%)
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 15 2010-09-01 15:33:22
TABLE
3.
EST
IMAT
ES
OF T
OTA
L A
ND
NU
CLE
AR
ELE
CT
RIC
AL
GEN
ER
ATIN
G C
APA
CIT
Y
Countr
y G
roup
2009
2020 (
a)2030 (
a)2050 (
a)(b
)
Nucl
ear
Nucl
ear
Nucl
ear
Nucl
ear
GW
(e)
%G
W(e
)%
GW
(e)
%G
W(e
)%
Nor
th A
mer
ica
1251
113.
3
9.
1
10
82
12
2
11.3
1058
128
12
.1
10
01
13
0
13.0
1157
128
11
.1
11
27
16
6
14.7
260
26
.0
Lati
n A
mer
ica
296
4.1
1.4
365
7.1
1.
9
520
11
2.2
98
5
15
1.
5
381
7.1
1.
9
573
23
4.1
60
6.
1
Wes
tern
Euro
pe
800
122.
7
15
.3
73
4
93
12
.6
78
7
86
11
.0
82
7
80
9.
7
728
129
17
.7
79
4
15
8
19.9
270
32
.7
East
ern
Euro
pe
471
47.6
10.1
440
67
15.3
471
84
17.9
526
80
15.2
469
81
17.2
517
111
21
.5
16
0
30.4
Afr
ica
126
1.8
1.4
179
1.8
1.
0
337
6.1
1.
8
1934
10
0.5
26
4
3.
0
1.1
64
7
15
2.
4
48
2.5
Mid
dle
Eas
t an
d S
outh
Asi
a38
5
4.
4
1.
1
53
9
14
2.
6
910
32
3.5
31
43
50
1.
6
662
23
3.5
13
77
56
4.
1
140
4.
5
South
Eas
t Asi
a an
d t
he P
acif
ic17
4
22
7
34
9
1.
0
0.3
75
8
5.
0
0.7
24
2
40
4
6.
0
1.5
27
3.
6
Far
East
1412
77.9
5.5
1734
148
8.
5
2026
197
9.
7
2689
220
8.
2
1853
179
9.
7
2309
267
11
.6
45
0
16.7
Wor
ld T
otal
Low
Est
imat
e49
14
37
1.9
7.6
5301
453
8.
5
6458
546
8.
5
1186
4
59
0
5.0
Hig
h E
stim
ate
5757
550
9.
6
7747
803
10
.4
14
15
11.9
Note
s:
(a)
Nucl
ear
cap
acit
y est
imat
es
take
into
acc
ount
the s
chedule
d r
eti
rem
ent
of
the o
lder
unit
s at
the e
nd o
f th
eir
lif
eti
me.
(b
) Pro
ject
ion f
igure
s fo
r to
tal ele
ctri
c ge
nera
ting
capac
itie
s ar
e t
he a
rith
meti
c av
era
ge b
etw
een low
and h
igh e
stim
ates.
Tota
l Ele
ct.
GW
(e)
Tota
l Ele
ct.
GW
(e)
Tota
l Ele
ct.
GW
(e)
Tota
l Ele
ct.
GW
(e)
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 16 2010-09-01 15:33:22
17
TABLE
3.
EST
IMAT
ES
OF T
OTA
L A
ND
NU
CLE
AR
ELE
CT
RIC
AL
GEN
ER
ATIN
G C
APA
CIT
Y
Countr
y G
roup
2009
2020 (
a)2030 (
a)2050 (
a)(b
)
Nucl
ear
Nucl
ear
Nucl
ear
Nucl
ear
GW
(e)
%G
W(e
)%
GW
(e)
%G
W(e
)%
Nor
th A
mer
ica
1251
113.
3
9.
1
10
82
12
2
11.3
1058
128
12
.1
10
01
13
0
13.0
1157
128
11
.1
11
27
16
6
14.7
260
26
.0
Lati
n A
mer
ica
296
4.1
1.4
365
7.1
1.
9
520
11
2.2
98
5
15
1.
5
381
7.1
1.
9
573
23
4.1
60
6.
1
Wes
tern
Euro
pe
800
122.
7
15
.3
73
4
93
12
.6
78
7
86
11
.0
82
7
80
9.
7
728
129
17
.7
79
4
15
8
19.9
270
32
.7
East
ern
Euro
pe
471
47.6
10.1
440
67
15.3
471
84
17.9
526
80
15.2
469
81
17.2
517
111
21
.5
16
0
30.4
Afr
ica
126
1.8
1.4
179
1.8
1.
0
337
6.1
1.
8
1934
10
0.5
26
4
3.
0
1.1
64
7
15
2.
4
48
2.5
Mid
dle
Eas
t an
d S
outh
Asi
a38
5
4.
4
1.
1
53
9
14
2.
6
910
32
3.5
31
43
50
1.
6
662
23
3.5
13
77
56
4.
1
140
4.
5
South
Eas
t Asi
a an
d t
he P
acif
ic17
4
22
7
34
9
1.
0
0.3
75
8
5.
0
0.7
24
2
40
4
6.
0
1.5
27
3.
6
Far
East
1412
77.9
5.5
1734
148
8.
5
2026
197
9.
7
2689
220
8.
2
1853
179
9.
7
2309
267
11
.6
45
0
16.7
Wor
ld T
otal
Low
Est
imat
e49
14
37
1.9
7.6
5301
453
8.
5
6458
546
8.
5
1186
4
59
0
5.0
Hig
h E
stim
ate
5757
550
9.
6
7747
803
10
.4
14
15
11.9
Note
s:
(a)
Nucl
ear
cap
acit
y est
imat
es
take
into
acc
ount
the s
chedule
d r
eti
rem
ent
of
the o
lder
unit
s at
the e
nd o
f th
eir
lif
eti
me.
(b
) Pro
ject
ion f
igure
s fo
r to
tal ele
ctri
c ge
nera
ting
capac
itie
s ar
e t
he a
rith
meti
c av
era
ge b
etw
een low
and h
igh e
stim
ates.
Tota
l Ele
ct.
GW
(e)
Tota
l Ele
ct.
GW
(e)
Tota
l Ele
ct.
GW
(e)
Tota
l Ele
ct.
GW
(e)
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 17 2010-09-01 15:33:23
18
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far East
America America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 2. TOTAL AND NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL GENERATING CAPACITY
20
0920
2020
3020
50
2009
2020
2030
2050
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000Total Capacity - High EstimateTotal Capacity - Low EstimateNuclear Contribution - High EstimateNuclear Contribution - Low Estimate
GW
(e)
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far East
America America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 2. TOTAL AND NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL GENERATING CAPACITY
20
0920
2020
3020
50
2009
2020
2030
2050
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000Total Capacity - High EstimateTotal Capacity - Low EstimateNuclear Contribution - High EstimateNuclear Contribution - Low Estimate
GW
(e)
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 18 2010-09-01 15:33:24
19
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far East
America America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 2. TOTAL AND NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL GENERATING CAPACITY
20
0920
2020
3020
50
2009
2020
2030
2050
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000Total Capacity - High EstimateTotal Capacity - Low EstimateNuclear Contribution - High EstimateNuclear Contribution - Low Estimate
GW
(e)
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far East
America America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 2. TOTAL AND NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL GENERATING CAPACITY
20
0920
2020
3020
50
2009
2020
2030
2050
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000Total Capacity - High EstimateTotal Capacity - Low EstimateNuclear Contribution - High EstimateNuclear Contribution - Low Estimate
GW
(e)
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 19 2010-09-01 15:33:26
TABL
E 4.
EST
IMAT
ES O
F TO
TAL
ELEC
TRIC
ITY
GEN
ERAT
ION
AN
D C
ON
TRIB
UTI
ON
BY
NU
CLEA
R PO
WER
(*)
Coun
try
Gro
up
2009
2020
2030
2050
(a)
Nuc
lear
Nuc
lear
Nuc
lear
Nuc
lear
TW·h
%TW
·h%
TW·h
%TW
·h%
Nor
th A
mer
ica
4525
882.
0
19.5
4676
984
21.0
48
19
10
34
21
.5
5245
1048
20.0
49
94
10
35
20
.7
5249
1339
25.5
20
95
40
.0
Lati
n Am
eric
a12
20
29
.9
2.
5
1618
53
3.
3
2442
86
3.
5
5267
114
2.2
16
89
53
3.1
27
25
17
8
6.
5
457
8.7
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
2967
780.
8
26.3
3169
699
22.0
34
66
66
6
19
.2
4204
617
14.7
32
74
96
8
29
.6
3763
1218
32.4
20
81
49
.5
East
ern
Euro
pe17
20
32
6.6
19
.0
18
98
45
5
24
.0
2182
592
27.1
27
99
56
1
20
.0
2048
544
26.6
24
48
77
8
31
.8
1121
40.1
Afri
ca62
8
11.6
1.8
90
7
15
1.
6
1734
50
2.
9
1025
0
82
0.
8
1335
24
1.
8
3338
126
3.8
39
1
3.
8
Mid
dle
East
and
Sou
th A
sia
1573
17.4
1.1
22
97
86
3.7
40
37
20
5
5.
1
1530
3
324
2.1
28
36
14
4
5.
1
6122
363
5.9
90
8
5.
9
Sout
h Ea
st A
sia
and
the
Paci
fic
729
97
7
1547
6
0.
4
3685
35
1.
0
1042
1797
39
2.
2
189
5.1
Far
East
5195
509.
8
9.8
71
91
10
24
14
.2
9027
1399
15.5
14
752
15
61
10
.6
7748
1238
16.0
10
412
18
98
18
.2
3193
21.6
Wor
ld T
otal
Low
Est
imat
e18
558
25
58.1
13.8
22
735
33
14
14
.6
2925
4
4040
13.8
61
503
43
42
7.
1
Hig
h Es
tim
ate
2496
5
4006
16.0
35
854
59
38
16
.6
1043
6
17
.0
Not
es:
(*)
The
nuc
lear
gen
erat
ion
data
pre
sent
ed in
thi
s ta
ble
and
the
nucl
ear
capa
city
dat
a pr
esen
ted
in T
able
3 c
anno
t be
use
d to
cal
cula
te a
vera
ge a
nnua
l cap
acit
y fa
ctor
s
for
nuc
lear
pla
nts,
as
Tabl
e 3
pres
ents
cap
acit
y at
the
end
of
the
year
and
not
the
eff
ecti
ve c
apac
ity
aver
age
over
the
yea
r. (
a) P
roje
ctio
n fi
gure
s fo
r to
tal e
lect
rici
ty g
ener
atio
n ar
e th
e ar
ithm
etic
ave
rage
bet
wee
n lo
w a
nd h
igh
esti
mat
es.
Tota
l Ele
ct.
TW·h
Tota
l Ele
ct.
TW·h
Tota
l Ele
ct.
TW·h
Tota
l Ele
ct.
TW·h
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 20 2010-09-01 15:33:26
21
TABL
E 4.
EST
IMAT
ES O
F TO
TAL
ELEC
TRIC
ITY
GEN
ERAT
ION
AN
D C
ON
TRIB
UTI
ON
BY
NU
CLEA
R PO
WER
(*)
Coun
try
Gro
up
2009
2020
2030
2050
(a)
Nuc
lear
Nuc
lear
Nuc
lear
Nuc
lear
TW·h
%TW
·h%
TW·h
%TW
·h%
Nor
th A
mer
ica
4525
882.
0
19.5
4676
984
21.0
48
19
10
34
21
.5
5245
1048
20.0
49
94
10
35
20
.7
5249
1339
25.5
20
95
40
.0
Lati
n Am
eric
a12
20
29
.9
2.
5
1618
53
3.
3
2442
86
3.
5
5267
114
2.2
16
89
53
3.1
27
25
17
8
6.
5
457
8.7
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
2967
780.
8
26.3
3169
699
22.0
34
66
66
6
19
.2
4204
617
14.7
32
74
96
8
29
.6
3763
1218
32.4
20
81
49
.5
East
ern
Euro
pe17
20
32
6.6
19
.0
18
98
45
5
24
.0
2182
592
27.1
27
99
56
1
20
.0
2048
544
26.6
24
48
77
8
31
.8
1121
40.1
Afri
ca62
8
11.6
1.8
90
7
15
1.
6
1734
50
2.
9
1025
0
82
0.
8
1335
24
1.
8
3338
126
3.8
39
1
3.
8
Mid
dle
East
and
Sou
th A
sia
1573
17.4
1.1
22
97
86
3.7
40
37
20
5
5.
1
1530
3
324
2.1
28
36
14
4
5.
1
6122
363
5.9
90
8
5.
9
Sout
h Ea
st A
sia
and
the
Paci
fic
729
97
7
1547
6
0.
4
3685
35
1.
0
1042
1797
39
2.
2
189
5.1
Far
East
5195
509.
8
9.8
71
91
10
24
14
.2
9027
1399
15.5
14
752
15
61
10
.6
7748
1238
16.0
10
412
18
98
18
.2
3193
21.6
Wor
ld T
otal
Low
Est
imat
e18
558
25
58.1
13.8
22
735
33
14
14
.6
2925
4
4040
13.8
61
503
43
42
7.
1
Hig
h Es
tim
ate
2496
5
4006
16.0
35
854
59
38
16
.6
1043
6
17
.0
Not
es:
(*)
The
nuc
lear
gen
erat
ion
data
pre
sent
ed in
thi
s ta
ble
and
the
nucl
ear
capa
city
dat
a pr
esen
ted
in T
able
3 c
anno
t be
use
d to
cal
cula
te a
vera
ge a
nnua
l cap
acit
y fa
ctor
s
for
nuc
lear
pla
nts,
as
Tabl
e 3
pres
ents
cap
acit
y at
the
end
of
the
year
and
not
the
eff
ecti
ve c
apac
ity
aver
age
over
the
yea
r. (
a) P
roje
ctio
n fi
gure
s fo
r to
tal e
lect
rici
ty g
ener
atio
n ar
e th
e ar
ithm
etic
ave
rage
bet
wee
n lo
w a
nd h
igh
esti
mat
es.
Tota
l Ele
ct.
TW·h
Tota
l Ele
ct.
TW·h
Tota
l Ele
ct.
TW·h
Tota
l Ele
ct.
TW·h
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 21 2010-09-01 15:33:26
22
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far East
America America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 3. PERCENTAGE OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLIED BY NUCLEAR POWER
20
0920
2020
3020
50
2009
2020
2030
2050
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50 Nuclear Low EstimateNuclear High Estimate
Perc
enta
ge (
%)
0
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far East
America America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 3. PERCENTAGE OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLIED BY NUCLEAR POWER
20
0920
2020
3020
50
2009
2020
2030
2050
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50 Nuclear Low EstimateNuclear High Estimate
Perc
enta
ge (
%)
0
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 22 2010-09-01 15:33:28
23
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far East
America America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 3. PERCENTAGE OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLIED BY NUCLEAR POWER
20
0920
2020
3020
50
2009
2020
2030
2050
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50 Nuclear Low EstimateNuclear High Estimate
Perc
enta
ge (
%)
0
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far East
America America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 3. PERCENTAGE OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLIED BY NUCLEAR POWER
20
0920
2020
3020
50
2009
2020
2030
2050
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50 Nuclear Low EstimateNuclear High Estimate
Perc
enta
ge (
%)
0
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 23 2010-09-01 15:33:29
TABLE
5.
EST
IMAT
ES
OF T
OTA
L EN
ER
GY R
EQ
UIR
EM
EN
T (
EJ)
, PER
CEN
TAG
E U
SED
FO
R E
LEC
TR
ICIT
Y G
EN
ER
ATIO
N,
AN
D P
ER
CEN
TAG
E S
UPPLI
ED
BY N
UC
LEA
R E
NER
GY (
*)
Countr
y G
roup
2009
2020
2030
2050 (
a)
Nor
th A
mer
ica
104.
5
37.2
9.
2
104
39
10
.3
10
3
40
10.9
111
42
11
.3
10
9
39
10.3
114
40
12
.9
19
.0
Lati
n A
meri
ca32
.8
27.9
1.
0
40
30
1.4
53
35
1.
8
87
46
1.6
43
30
1.
3
59
35
3.3
5.
3
West
ern
Euro
pe
65.3
39
.0
13.0
64
42
11
.9
61
47
11
.8
67
55
11
.0
67
43
15
.8
68
48
19
.5
31
.4
East
ern
Euro
pe
53.8
39
.6
6.6
56
41
8.
8
58
46
11.1
61
56
10.8
59
43
10.1
62
48
13.8
19.0
Afr
ica
29.0
21
.7
0.4
39
23
0.
4
66
26
0.8
18
2
55
0.6
50
27
0.
5
92
37
1.5
2.
0
Mid
dle
Eas
t an
d S
outh
Asi
a63
.8
33.5
0.
3
81
38
1.2
11
9
46
1.9
25
5
55
1.7
92
42
1.
7
156
53
2.
5
3.3
South
Eas
t Asi
a an
d t
he P
acif
ic24
.3
29.2
30
32
39
38
0.
2
64
56
0.6
31
33
42
42
1.
0
3.0
Far
East
136.
1
42.9
4.
1
171
47
6.
5
199
51
7.
7
254
65
7.
5
184
47
7.
3
220
53
9.
4
12.4
Wor
ld T
otal
Low
Est
imat
e50
9.6
36
.9
5.5
58
6
40
6.2
69
8
44
6.3
10
80
55
4.9
Hig
h E
stim
ate
635
41
6.
9
812
47
8.
0
9.6
Note
s:
(*)
Tota
l energ
y re
quir
em
ent
is e
stim
ated a
s pro
duct
ion o
f pri
mar
y energ
y plu
s net
trad
e (
import
Ð e
xport
) m
inus
inte
rnat
ional
bunke
rs a
nd s
tock
chan
ges.
(a)
Pro
ject
ion f
igure
s fo
r to
tal energ
y re
quir
em
ent
and p
erc
enta
ge u
sed f
or
ele
ctri
city
genera
tion a
re t
he a
rith
meti
c av
era
ge b
etw
een low
and h
igh e
stim
ates.
Tota
l En
erg
yRe
quir
em
ent
% U
sed f
orEl
ect
. G
en.
% S
upplied
by
Nucl
ear
Tota
l En
ergy
Requir
emen
t% U
sed f
orEl
ect
. G
en.
% S
upplied
by
Nucl
ear
Tota
l En
ergy
Requir
emen
t% U
sed f
orEl
ect
. G
en.
% S
upplied
by
Nucl
ear
Tota
l En
ergy
Requir
emen
t% U
sed f
orEl
ect
. G
en.
% S
upplied
by
Nucl
ear
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 24 2010-09-01 15:33:29
25
TABLE
5.
EST
IMAT
ES
OF T
OTA
L EN
ER
GY R
EQ
UIR
EM
EN
T (
EJ)
, PER
CEN
TAG
E U
SED
FO
R E
LEC
TR
ICIT
Y G
EN
ER
ATIO
N,
AN
D P
ER
CEN
TAG
E S
UPPLI
ED
BY N
UC
LEA
R E
NER
GY (
*)
Countr
y G
roup
2009
2020
2030
2050 (
a)
Nor
th A
mer
ica
104.
5
37.2
9.
2
104
39
10
.3
10
3
40
10.9
111
42
11
.3
10
9
39
10.3
114
40
12
.9
19
.0
Lati
n A
meri
ca32
.8
27.9
1.
0
40
30
1.4
53
35
1.
8
87
46
1.6
43
30
1.
3
59
35
3.3
5.
3
West
ern
Euro
pe
65.3
39
.0
13.0
64
42
11
.9
61
47
11
.8
67
55
11
.0
67
43
15
.8
68
48
19
.5
31
.4
East
ern
Euro
pe
53.8
39
.6
6.6
56
41
8.
8
58
46
11.1
61
56
10.8
59
43
10.1
62
48
13.8
19.0
Afr
ica
29.0
21
.7
0.4
39
23
0.
4
66
26
0.8
18
2
55
0.6
50
27
0.
5
92
37
1.5
2.
0
Mid
dle
Eas
t an
d S
outh
Asi
a63
.8
33.5
0.
3
81
38
1.2
11
9
46
1.9
25
5
55
1.7
92
42
1.
7
156
53
2.
5
3.3
South
Eas
t Asi
a an
d t
he P
acif
ic24
.3
29.2
30
32
39
38
0.
2
64
56
0.6
31
33
42
42
1.
0
3.0
Far
East
136.
1
42.9
4.
1
171
47
6.
5
199
51
7.
7
254
65
7.
5
184
47
7.
3
220
53
9.
4
12.4
Wor
ld T
otal
Low
Est
imat
e50
9.6
36
.9
5.5
58
6
40
6.2
69
8
44
6.3
10
80
55
4.9
Hig
h E
stim
ate
635
41
6.
9
812
47
8.
0
9.6
Note
s:
(*)
Tota
l energ
y re
quir
em
ent
is e
stim
ated a
s pro
duct
ion o
f pri
mar
y energ
y plu
s net
trad
e (
import
Ð e
xport
) m
inus
inte
rnat
ional
bunke
rs a
nd s
tock
chan
ges.
(a)
Pro
ject
ion f
igure
s fo
r to
tal energ
y re
quir
em
ent
and p
erc
enta
ge u
sed f
or
ele
ctri
city
genera
tion a
re t
he a
rith
meti
c av
era
ge b
etw
een low
and h
igh e
stim
ates.
Tota
l En
erg
yRe
quir
em
ent
% U
sed f
orEl
ect
. G
en.
% S
upplied
by
Nucl
ear
Tota
l En
ergy
Requir
emen
t% U
sed f
orEl
ect
. G
en.
% S
upplied
by
Nucl
ear
Tota
l En
ergy
Requir
emen
t% U
sed f
orEl
ect
. G
en.
% S
upplied
by
Nucl
ear
Tota
l En
ergy
Requir
emen
t% U
sed f
orEl
ect
. G
en.
% S
upplied
by
Nucl
ear
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 25 2010-09-01 15:33:29
26
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far East
America America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 4. ESTIMATES OF ENERGY REQUIREMENT
20
0920
2020
3020
50
2009
2020
2030
2050
0
50
100
150
200
250 Total - High EstimateTotal – Low EstimateNuclear – High EstimateNuclear - Low Estimate
EJ
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far East
America America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 4. ESTIMATES OF ENERGY REQUIREMENT
20
0920
2020
3020
50
2009
2020
2030
2050
0
50
100
150
200
250 Total - High EstimateTotal – Low EstimateNuclear – High EstimateNuclear - Low Estimate
EJ
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 26 2010-09-01 15:33:30
27
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far East
America America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 4. ESTIMATES OF ENERGY REQUIREMENT
20
0920
2020
3020
50
2009
2020
2030
2050
0
50
100
150
200
250 Total - High EstimateTotal – Low EstimateNuclear – High EstimateNuclear - Low Estimate
EJ
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far East
America America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 4. ESTIMATES OF ENERGY REQUIREMENT
20
0920
2020
3020
50
2009
2020
2030
2050
0
50
100
150
200
250 Total - High EstimateTotal – Low EstimateNuclear – High EstimateNuclear - Low Estimate
EJ
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 27 2010-09-01 15:33:31
TABL
E 6.
TO
TAL
ENER
GY
REQ
UIR
EMEN
T (E
J) B
Y TY
PE O
F FU
EL IN
200
9 (*
)Co
untr
y G
roup
Solid
s (a
)Li
quid
sG
ases
Biom
ass
(b)
Hyd
roN
ucle
arRe
new
able
s (c
)To
tal
North A
meric
a21.1
9
35.7
1
28.4
1
6.1
5
2.5
2
9.6
2
0.8
5
104.4
6
Latin
Am
eric
a1.2
6
15.1
3
7.5
4
5.5
2
2.5
9
0.3
3
0.4
2
32.8
0
Western E
urope
8.4
6
22.7
2
18.5
2
4.2
8
1.9
1
8.5
2
0.9
3
65.3
3
Eastern E
urope
10.8
8
11.5
6
25.3
5
1.4
5
1.1
2
3.5
6
-0.1
2
53.8
1
Afr
ica
4.5
8
7.7
5
4.3
3
11.8
3
0.3
6
0.1
3
0.0
6
29.0
4
Mid
dle
East a
nd S
outh A
sia
15.5
0
21.4
2
16.2
8
9.8
4
0.5
7
0.1
9
> 0.
01
63.8
0
South E
ast A
sia
and t
he P
acif
ic4.7
4
8.5
5
6.3
8
3.9
2
0.2
5
0.4
2
24.2
6
Far E
ast
81.4
4
31.7
5
9.8
2
4.2
4
2.8
3
5.5
6
0.4
9
136.1
2
World
Total
148.0
7
154.5
8
116.6
4
47.2
3
12.1
5
27.9
1
3.0
6
509.6
4
Not
es:
(*)
Tota
l ene
rgy
requ
irem
ent
is e
stim
ated
as
prod
ucti
on o
f pr
imar
y en
ergy
plu
s ne
t tr
ade
(im
port
Ð e
xpor
t) m
inus
inte
rnat
iona
l bun
kers
and
sto
ck c
hang
es.
(a)
Solid
s do
not
incl
ude
com
mer
cial
woo
d.(b
) Th
e co
lum
n he
aded
'Bio
mas
s' in
clud
es c
omm
erci
al w
ood,
com
bust
ible
ren
ewab
les,
was
te a
nd o
ther
bio
mas
s pr
oduc
ts.
(c)
The
colu
mn
head
ed 'R
enew
able
s' in
clud
es g
eoth
erm
al,
win
d, s
olar
, ti
de e
nerg
y an
d ne
t el
ectr
icit
y tr
ade.
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 28 2010-09-01 15:33:31
29
TABL
E 6.
TO
TAL
ENER
GY
REQ
UIR
EMEN
T (E
J) B
Y TY
PE O
F FU
EL IN
200
9 (*
)Co
untr
y G
roup
Solid
s (a
)Li
quid
sG
ases
Biom
ass
(b)
Hyd
roN
ucle
arRe
new
able
s (c
)To
tal
North A
meric
a21.1
9
35.7
1
28.4
1
6.1
5
2.5
2
9.6
2
0.8
5
104.4
6
Latin
Am
eric
a1.2
6
15.1
3
7.5
4
5.5
2
2.5
9
0.3
3
0.4
2
32.8
0
Western E
urope
8.4
6
22.7
2
18.5
2
4.2
8
1.9
1
8.5
2
0.9
3
65.3
3
Eastern E
urope
10.8
8
11.5
6
25.3
5
1.4
5
1.1
2
3.5
6
-0.1
2
53.8
1
Afr
ica
4.5
8
7.7
5
4.3
3
11.8
3
0.3
6
0.1
3
0.0
6
29.0
4
Mid
dle
East a
nd S
outh A
sia
15.5
0
21.4
2
16.2
8
9.8
4
0.5
7
0.1
9
> 0.
01
63.8
0
South E
ast A
sia
and t
he P
acif
ic4.7
4
8.5
5
6.3
8
3.9
2
0.2
5
0.4
2
24.2
6
Far E
ast
81.4
4
31.7
5
9.8
2
4.2
4
2.8
3
5.5
6
0.4
9
136.1
2
World
Total
148.0
7
154.5
8
116.6
4
47.2
3
12.1
5
27.9
1
3.0
6
509.6
4
Not
es:
(*)
Tota
l ene
rgy
requ
irem
ent
is e
stim
ated
as
prod
ucti
on o
f pr
imar
y en
ergy
plu
s ne
t tr
ade
(im
port
Ð e
xpor
t) m
inus
inte
rnat
iona
l bun
kers
and
sto
ck c
hang
es.
(a)
Solid
s do
not
incl
ude
com
mer
cial
woo
d.(b
) Th
e co
lum
n he
aded
'Bio
mas
s' in
clud
es c
omm
erci
al w
ood,
com
bust
ible
ren
ewab
les,
was
te a
nd o
ther
bio
mas
s pr
oduc
ts.
(c)
The
colu
mn
head
ed 'R
enew
able
s' in
clud
es g
eoth
erm
al,
win
d, s
olar
, ti
de e
nerg
y an
d ne
t el
ectr
icit
y tr
ade.
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 29 2010-09-01 15:33:31
30
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastAmerica America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 5. TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT BY FUEL TYPE IN 2009
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140 RenewablesNuclearHydroBiomassGasesLiquidsSolids
EJ
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastAmerica America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 5. TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT BY FUEL TYPE IN 2009
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140 RenewablesNuclearHydroBiomassGasesLiquidsSolids
EJ
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 30 2010-09-01 15:33:33
31
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastAmerica America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 5. TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT BY FUEL TYPE IN 2009
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140 RenewablesNuclearHydroBiomassGasesLiquidsSolids
EJ
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastAmerica America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 5. TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT BY FUEL TYPE IN 2009
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140 RenewablesNuclearHydroBiomassGasesLiquidsSolids
EJ
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 31 2010-09-01 15:33:34
32
FIGURE 6. BREAKDOWN OF WORLD TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT DURING THE PERIOD 1970 — 2009
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500NuclearHydroBiomassGasesLiquidsSolids
Year
EJ
FIGURE 6. BREAKDOWN OF WORLD TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT DURING THE PERIOD 1970 — 2009
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500NuclearHydroBiomassGasesLiquidsSolids
Year
EJ
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 32 2010-09-01 15:33:35
33
FIGURE 6. BREAKDOWN OF WORLD TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT DURING THE PERIOD 1970 — 2009
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500NuclearHydroBiomassGasesLiquidsSolids
Year
EJ
FIGURE 6. BREAKDOWN OF WORLD TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT DURING THE PERIOD 1970 — 2009
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500NuclearHydroBiomassGasesLiquidsSolids
Year
EJ
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 33 2010-09-01 15:33:36
TABL
E 7.
FU
EL S
HA
RES
(%)
OF
ENER
GY
REQ
UIR
EMEN
T IN
200
9 (*
)Co
untr
y G
roup
Solid
s (a
)Li
quid
sG
ases
Biom
ass
(b)
Hyd
roN
ucle
arRe
new
able
s (c
)To
tal
North A
meric
a20.2
9
34.1
8
27.2
0
5.8
9
2.4
1
9.2
1
0.8
1
100.0
0
Latin
Am
eric
a3.8
4
46.1
3
22.9
9
16.8
4
7.9
1
1.0
0
1.2
9
100.0
0
Western E
urope
12.9
5
34.7
7
28.3
5
6.5
5
2.9
2
13.0
4
1.4
3
100.0
0
Eastern E
urope
20.2
2
21.4
8
47.1
1
2.7
0
2.0
8
6.6
2
-0.2
2
100.0
0
Afr
ica
15.7
8
26.6
8
14.9
2
40.7
2
1.2
5
0.4
3
0.2
2
100.0
0
Mid
dle
East a
nd S
outh A
sia
24.3
0
33.5
7
25.5
1
15.4
2
0.8
9
0.3
0
> 0.
01
100.0
0
South E
ast A
sia
and t
he P
acif
ic19.5
4
35.2
3
26.3
2
16.1
5
1.0
3
1.7
3
100.0
0
Far E
ast
59.8
3
23.3
2
7.2
1
3.1
1
2.0
8
4.0
9
0.3
6
100.0
0
World
Total
29.0
5
30.3
3
22.8
9
9.2
7
2.3
8
5.4
8
0.6
0
100.0
0
Not
es:
(*)
Tota
l ene
rgy
requ
irem
ent
is e
stim
ated
as
prod
ucti
on o
f pr
imar
y en
ergy
plu
s ne
t tr
ade
(im
port
Ð e
xpor
t) m
inus
inte
rnat
iona
l bun
kers
and
sto
ck c
hang
es.
(a)
Solid
s do
not
incl
ude
com
mer
cial
woo
d.(b
) Th
e co
lum
n he
aded
'Bio
mas
s' in
clud
es c
omm
erci
al w
ood,
com
bust
ible
ren
ewab
les,
was
te a
nd o
ther
bio
mas
s pr
oduc
ts.
(c)
The
colu
mn
head
ed 'R
enew
able
s' in
clud
es g
eoth
erm
al,
win
d, s
olar
, ti
de e
nerg
y an
d ne
t el
ectr
icit
y tr
ade.
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 34 2010-09-01 15:33:36
35
TABL
E 7.
FU
EL S
HA
RES
(%)
OF
ENER
GY
REQ
UIR
EMEN
T IN
200
9 (*
)Co
untr
y G
roup
Solid
s (a
)Li
quid
sG
ases
Biom
ass
(b)
Hyd
roN
ucle
arRe
new
able
s (c
)To
tal
North A
meric
a20.2
9
34.1
8
27.2
0
5.8
9
2.4
1
9.2
1
0.8
1
100.0
0
Latin
Am
eric
a3.8
4
46.1
3
22.9
9
16.8
4
7.9
1
1.0
0
1.2
9
100.0
0
Western E
urope
12.9
5
34.7
7
28.3
5
6.5
5
2.9
2
13.0
4
1.4
3
100.0
0
Eastern E
urope
20.2
2
21.4
8
47.1
1
2.7
0
2.0
8
6.6
2
-0.2
2
100.0
0
Afr
ica
15.7
8
26.6
8
14.9
2
40.7
2
1.2
5
0.4
3
0.2
2
100.0
0
Mid
dle
East a
nd S
outh A
sia
24.3
0
33.5
7
25.5
1
15.4
2
0.8
9
0.3
0
> 0.
01
100.0
0
South E
ast A
sia
and t
he P
acif
ic19.5
4
35.2
3
26.3
2
16.1
5
1.0
3
1.7
3
100.0
0
Far E
ast
59.8
3
23.3
2
7.2
1
3.1
1
2.0
8
4.0
9
0.3
6
100.0
0
World
Total
29.0
5
30.3
3
22.8
9
9.2
7
2.3
8
5.4
8
0.6
0
100.0
0
Not
es:
(*)
Tota
l ene
rgy
requ
irem
ent
is e
stim
ated
as
prod
ucti
on o
f pr
imar
y en
ergy
plu
s ne
t tr
ade
(im
port
Ð e
xpor
t) m
inus
inte
rnat
iona
l bun
kers
and
sto
ck c
hang
es.
(a)
Solid
s do
not
incl
ude
com
mer
cial
woo
d.(b
) Th
e co
lum
n he
aded
'Bio
mas
s' in
clud
es c
omm
erci
al w
ood,
com
bust
ible
ren
ewab
les,
was
te a
nd o
ther
bio
mas
s pr
oduc
ts.
(c)
The
colu
mn
head
ed 'R
enew
able
s' in
clud
es g
eoth
erm
al,
win
d, s
olar
, ti
de e
nerg
y an
d ne
t el
ectr
icit
y tr
ade.
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 35 2010-09-01 15:33:36
36
TABL
E 8.
FU
EL U
SE (
EJ)
FOR
ELEC
TRIC
ITY
GEN
ERAT
ION
BY
TYPE
OF
FUEL
IN 2
009
Coun
try
Gro
upTh
erm
al (
a)H
ydro
Nuc
lear
Rene
wab
les
(b)
Tota
l
North A
meric
a28.8
9
2.5
2
9.6
2
0.8
3
41.8
7
Latin
Am
eric
a5.9
1
2.5
9
0.3
3
0.4
0
9.2
3
Western E
urope
15.8
1
1.9
1
8.5
2
0.8
5
27.0
8
Eastern E
urope
18.0
6
1.1
2
3.5
6
0.0
3
22.7
6
Afr
ica
5.8
9
0.3
6
0.1
3
0.0
5
6.4
2
Mid
dle
East a
nd S
outh A
sia
20.3
2
0.5
7
0.1
9
> 0.
01
21.0
8
South E
ast A
sia
and t
he P
acif
ic6.8
2
0.2
5
0.4
2
7.4
8
Far E
ast
52.4
3
2.8
3
5.5
6
0.5
0
61.3
1
World
Total
154.1
1
12.1
5
27.9
1
3.0
7
197.2
4
Not
es:
(a)
The
colu
mn
head
ed 'T
herm
al' i
s th
e to
tal f
or s
olid
s, li
quid
s, g
ases
, bi
omas
s an
d w
aste
.(b
) Th
e co
lum
n he
aded
'Ren
ewab
les'
incl
udes
geo
ther
mal
, w
ind,
sol
ar a
nd t
ide
ener
gy.
TABL
E 9.
PER
CEN
TAG
E CO
NTR
IBU
TIO
N O
F EA
CH F
UEL
TYP
E TO
ELE
CTRI
CITY
GEN
ERAT
ION
IN 2
009
Coun
try
Gro
upTh
erm
al (
a)H
ydro
Nuc
lear
Rene
wab
les
(b)
Tota
l
North A
meric
a63.5
8
15.4
8
19.4
9
1.4
5
100.0
0
Latin
Am
eric
a37.5
5
59.0
3
2.4
5
0.9
6
100.0
0
Western E
urope
51.0
1
17.8
3
26.3
2
4.8
4
100.0
0
Eastern E
urope
62.8
0
18.1
1
18.9
9
0.1
0
100.0
0
Afr
ica
81.6
9
16.0
5
1.8
4
0.4
2
100.0
0
Mid
dle
East a
nd S
outh A
sia
88.8
3
10.0
5
1.1
1
0.0
1
100.0
0
South E
ast A
sia
and t
he P
acif
ic88.3
4
9.5
4
2.1
2
100.0
0
Far E
ast
74.7
3
15.1
1
9.8
1
0.3
5
100.0
0
World
Total
66.6
3
18.1
9
13.7
8
1.4
0
100.0
0
Not
es:
(a)
The
colu
mn
head
ed 'T
herm
al' i
s th
e to
tal f
or s
olid
s, li
quid
s, g
ases
, bi
omas
s an
d w
aste
.(b
) Th
e co
lum
n he
aded
'Ren
ewab
les'
incl
udes
geo
ther
mal
, w
ind,
sol
ar a
nd t
ide
ener
gy.
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 36 2010-09-01 15:33:36
37
TABL
E 8.
FU
EL U
SE (
EJ)
FOR
ELEC
TRIC
ITY
GEN
ERAT
ION
BY
TYPE
OF
FUEL
IN 2
009
Coun
try
Gro
upTh
erm
al (
a)H
ydro
Nuc
lear
Rene
wab
les
(b)
Tota
l
North A
meric
a28.8
9
2.5
2
9.6
2
0.8
3
41.8
7
Latin
Am
eric
a5.9
1
2.5
9
0.3
3
0.4
0
9.2
3
Western E
urope
15.8
1
1.9
1
8.5
2
0.8
5
27.0
8
Eastern E
urope
18.0
6
1.1
2
3.5
6
0.0
3
22.7
6
Afr
ica
5.8
9
0.3
6
0.1
3
0.0
5
6.4
2
Mid
dle
East a
nd S
outh A
sia
20.3
2
0.5
7
0.1
9
> 0.
01
21.0
8
South E
ast A
sia
and t
he P
acif
ic6.8
2
0.2
5
0.4
2
7.4
8
Far E
ast
52.4
3
2.8
3
5.5
6
0.5
0
61.3
1
World
Total
154.1
1
12.1
5
27.9
1
3.0
7
197.2
4
Not
es:
(a)
The
colu
mn
head
ed 'T
herm
al' i
s th
e to
tal f
or s
olid
s, li
quid
s, g
ases
, bi
omas
s an
d w
aste
.(b
) Th
e co
lum
n he
aded
'Ren
ewab
les'
incl
udes
geo
ther
mal
, w
ind,
sol
ar a
nd t
ide
ener
gy.
TABL
E 9.
PER
CEN
TAG
E CO
NTR
IBU
TIO
N O
F EA
CH F
UEL
TYP
E TO
ELE
CTRI
CITY
GEN
ERAT
ION
IN 2
009
Coun
try
Gro
upTh
erm
al (
a)H
ydro
Nuc
lear
Rene
wab
les
(b)
Tota
l
North A
meric
a63.5
8
15.4
8
19.4
9
1.4
5
100.0
0
Latin
Am
eric
a37.5
5
59.0
3
2.4
5
0.9
6
100.0
0
Western E
urope
51.0
1
17.8
3
26.3
2
4.8
4
100.0
0
Eastern E
urope
62.8
0
18.1
1
18.9
9
0.1
0
100.0
0
Afr
ica
81.6
9
16.0
5
1.8
4
0.4
2
100.0
0
Mid
dle
East a
nd S
outh A
sia
88.8
3
10.0
5
1.1
1
0.0
1
100.0
0
South E
ast A
sia
and t
he P
acif
ic88.3
4
9.5
4
2.1
2
100.0
0
Far E
ast
74.7
3
15.1
1
9.8
1
0.3
5
100.0
0
World
Total
66.6
3
18.1
9
13.7
8
1.4
0
100.0
0
Not
es:
(a)
The
colu
mn
head
ed 'T
herm
al' i
s th
e to
tal f
or s
olid
s, li
quid
s, g
ases
, bi
omas
s an
d w
aste
.(b
) Th
e co
lum
n he
aded
'Ren
ewab
les'
incl
udes
geo
ther
mal
, w
ind,
sol
ar a
nd t
ide
ener
gy.
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 37 2010-09-01 15:33:37
TABL
E 10
. ES
TIM
ATES
OF
POPU
LATI
ON
GRO
WTH
BY
REG
ION
(*)
Coun
try
Gro
up
2009
2020
2030
2050
Million Inhabit
ants
Million Inhabit
ants
Million Inhabit
ants
Million Inhabit
ants
North A
meric
a345
1.0
9
379
0.8
7
407
0.7
1
448
0.4
8
Latin
Am
eric
a587
1.4
3
659
1.0
5
711
0.7
6
729
0.1
3
Western E
urope
474
0.3
7
484
0.1
9
488
0.0
9
520
0.3
2
Eastern E
urope
403
-0.1
3
393
-0.2
2
380
-0.3
5
356
-0.3
3
Afr
ica
965
2.3
4
1188
1.9
1
1398
1.6
4
1998
1.8
0
Mid
dle
East a
nd S
outh A
sia
1788
1.8
7
2091
1.4
3
2325
1.0
7
2660
0.6
8
South E
ast A
sia
and t
he P
acif
ic424
1.1
8
469
0.9
2
500
0.6
4
529
0.2
8
Far E
ast
1767
0.6
9
1872
0.5
3
1914
0.2
2
1892
-0.0
6
World
Total
6752
1.4
0
7535
1.0
0
8123
0.7
5
9133
1.1
8
(*)
Proj
ecti
on f
igur
es a
re t
he a
rith
met
ic a
vera
ge b
etw
een
low
and
hig
h es
tim
ates
.
Grow
th R
ate (
%/a)
1999 Ñ
2009
Grow
th R
ate (
%/a)
2009 Ñ
2020
Grow
th R
ate (
%/a)
2020 Ñ
2030
Grow
th R
ate (
%/a)
2030 Ñ
2050
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 38 2010-09-01 15:33:37
39
TABL
E 10
. ES
TIM
ATES
OF
POPU
LATI
ON
GRO
WTH
BY
REG
ION
(*)
Coun
try
Gro
up
2009
2020
2030
2050
Million Inhabit
ants
Million Inhabit
ants
Million Inhabit
ants
Million Inhabit
ants
North A
meric
a345
1.0
9
379
0.8
7
407
0.7
1
448
0.4
8
Latin
Am
eric
a587
1.4
3
659
1.0
5
711
0.7
6
729
0.1
3
Western E
urope
474
0.3
7
484
0.1
9
488
0.0
9
520
0.3
2
Eastern E
urope
403
-0.1
3
393
-0.2
2
380
-0.3
5
356
-0.3
3
Afr
ica
965
2.3
4
1188
1.9
1
1398
1.6
4
1998
1.8
0
Mid
dle
East a
nd S
outh A
sia
1788
1.8
7
2091
1.4
3
2325
1.0
7
2660
0.6
8
South E
ast A
sia
and t
he P
acif
ic424
1.1
8
469
0.9
2
500
0.6
4
529
0.2
8
Far E
ast
1767
0.6
9
1872
0.5
3
1914
0.2
2
1892
-0.0
6
World
Total
6752
1.4
0
7535
1.0
0
8123
0.7
5
9133
1.1
8
(*)
Proj
ecti
on f
igur
es a
re t
he a
rith
met
ic a
vera
ge b
etw
een
low
and
hig
h es
tim
ates
.
Grow
th R
ate (
%/a)
1999 Ñ
2009
Grow
th R
ate (
%/a)
2009 Ñ
2020
Grow
th R
ate (
%/a)
2020 Ñ
2030
Grow
th R
ate (
%/a)
2030 Ñ
2050
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 39 2010-09-01 15:33:37
40
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far East
America America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 7. POPULATION ESTIMATES
20
0920
2020
3020
50
2009
2020
2030
2050
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Mill
ions
of
Inha
bita
nts
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far East
America America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 7. POPULATION ESTIMATES
20
0920
2020
3020
50
2009
2020
2030
2050
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Mill
ions
of
Inha
bita
nts
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 40 2010-09-01 15:33:38
41
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far East
America America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 7. POPULATION ESTIMATES
20
0920
2020
3020
50
2009
2020
2030
2050
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Mill
ions
of
Inha
bita
nts
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far East
America America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 7. POPULATION ESTIMATES
20
0920
2020
3020
50
2009
2020
2030
2050
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Mill
ions
of
Inha
bita
nts
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 41 2010-09-01 15:33:39
TABL
E 11
. ES
TIM
ATES
OF
TOTA
L EN
ERG
Y A
ND
ELE
CTRI
CITY
REQ
UIR
EMEN
T PE
R CA
PITA
Coun
try
Gro
up
2009
2020
2030
2050
(*)
Nor
th A
mer
ica
303
13.1
275
—28
8 12
.3
—13
.2
254
—27
9 11
.8
—12
.9
248
±21
11
.7
±0.
7
Lati
n Am
eric
a56
2.1
61
—65
2.
5 —
2.6
74
—83
3.
4 —
3.8
120
±10
7.
2 ±
0.8
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
138
6.3
132
—13
8 6.
6 —
6.8
126
—14
0 7.
1 —
7.7
129
±11
8.
1 ±
0.6
East
ern
Euro
pe13
4
4.
3
14
3 —
149
4.8
—5.
2 15
3 —
163
5.7
—6.
4 17
0 ±
11
7.9
±0.
5
Afri
ca30
0.7
33
—42
0.
8 —
1.1
47
—66
1.
2 —
2.4
91
±17
5.
1 ±
1.7
Mid
dle
East
and
Sou
th A
sia
36
0.
9
39
—
44
1.1
—1.
4 51
—
67
1.7
—2.
6 96
±
17
5.8
±1.
5
Sout
h Ea
st A
sia
and
the
Paci
fic
57
1.
7
64
—
66
2.1
—2.
2 79
—
84
3.1
—3.
6 12
1 ±
8 7.
0 ±
0.9
Far
East
77
2.
9
91
—
99
3.8
—4.
1 10
4 —
115
4.7
—5.
4 13
4 ±
14
7.8
±0.
7
Wor
ld A
vera
ge75
2.7
78
—84
3.
0 —
3.3
86
—10
0 3.
6 —
4.4
118
±15
6.
7 ±
1.2
Not
e: (
*) P
roje
ctio
n fi
gure
s ar
e th
e ar
ithm
etic
ave
rage
bet
wee
n lo
w a
nd h
igh
esti
mat
es w
ith
indi
cate
d ra
nge.
Ener
gy
Requ
irem
ent
per
Capi
ta (
GJ/
cap)
Elec
tric
ity
Requ
irem
ent
per
Capi
ta (
MW
·h/c
ap)
Ener
gy
Requ
irem
ent
per
Capi
ta (
GJ/
cap)
Elec
tric
ity
Requ
irem
ent
per
Capi
ta (
MW
·h/c
ap)
Ener
gy
Requ
irem
ent
per
Capi
ta (
GJ/
cap)
Elec
tric
ity
Requ
irem
ent
per
Capi
ta (
MW
·h/c
ap)
Ener
gy
Requ
irem
ent
per
Capi
ta (
GJ/
cap)
Elec
tric
ity
Requ
irem
ent
per
Capi
ta (
MW
·h/c
ap)
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 42 2010-09-01 15:33:39
43
TABL
E 11
. ES
TIM
ATES
OF
TOTA
L EN
ERG
Y A
ND
ELE
CTRI
CITY
REQ
UIR
EMEN
T PE
R CA
PITA
Coun
try
Gro
up
2009
2020
2030
2050
(*)
Nor
th A
mer
ica
303
13.1
275
—28
8 12
.3
—13
.2
254
—27
9 11
.8
—12
.9
248
±21
11
.7
±0.
7
Lati
n Am
eric
a56
2.1
61
—65
2.
5 —
2.6
74
—83
3.
4 —
3.8
120
±10
7.
2 ±
0.8
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
138
6.3
132
—13
8 6.
6 —
6.8
126
—14
0 7.
1 —
7.7
129
±11
8.
1 ±
0.6
East
ern
Euro
pe13
4
4.
3
14
3 —
149
4.8
—5.
2 15
3 —
163
5.7
—6.
4 17
0 ±
11
7.9
±0.
5
Afri
ca30
0.7
33
—42
0.
8 —
1.1
47
—66
1.
2 —
2.4
91
±17
5.
1 ±
1.7
Mid
dle
East
and
Sou
th A
sia
36
0.
9
39
—
44
1.1
—1.
4 51
—
67
1.7
—2.
6 96
±
17
5.8
±1.
5
Sout
h Ea
st A
sia
and
the
Paci
fic
57
1.
7
64
—
66
2.1
—2.
2 79
—
84
3.1
—3.
6 12
1 ±
8 7.
0 ±
0.9
Far
East
77
2.
9
91
—
99
3.8
—4.
1 10
4 —
115
4.7
—5.
4 13
4 ±
14
7.8
±0.
7
Wor
ld A
vera
ge75
2.7
78
—84
3.
0 —
3.3
86
—10
0 3.
6 —
4.4
118
±15
6.
7 ±
1.2
Not
e: (
*) P
roje
ctio
n fi
gure
s ar
e th
e ar
ithm
etic
ave
rage
bet
wee
n lo
w a
nd h
igh
esti
mat
es w
ith
indi
cate
d ra
nge.
Ener
gy
Requ
irem
ent
per
Capi
ta (
GJ/
cap)
Elec
tric
ity
Requ
irem
ent
per
Capi
ta (
MW
·h/c
ap)
Ener
gy
Requ
irem
ent
per
Capi
ta (
GJ/
cap)
Elec
tric
ity
Requ
irem
ent
per
Capi
ta (
MW
·h/c
ap)
Ener
gy
Requ
irem
ent
per
Capi
ta (
GJ/
cap)
Elec
tric
ity
Requ
irem
ent
per
Capi
ta (
MW
·h/c
ap)
Ener
gy
Requ
irem
ent
per
Capi
ta (
GJ/
cap)
Elec
tric
ity
Requ
irem
ent
per
Capi
ta (
MW
·h/c
ap)
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 43 2010-09-01 15:33:39
44
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastAmerica America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 8. TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT PER CAPITA
2009
2020
2030
2050
2009
2020
2030
2050
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
High EstimateLow Estimate
GJ
pe
r ca
pita
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastAmerica America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 8. TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT PER CAPITA
2009
2020
2030
2050
2009
2020
2030
2050
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
High EstimateLow Estimate
GJ
pe
r ca
pita
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 44 2010-09-01 15:33:41
45
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastAmerica America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 8. TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT PER CAPITA
2009
2020
2030
2050
2009
2020
2030
2050
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
High EstimateLow Estimate
GJ
pe
r ca
pita
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastAmerica America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 8. TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT PER CAPITA
2009
2020
2030
2050
2009
2020
2030
2050
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
High EstimateLow Estimate
GJ
pe
r ca
pita
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 45 2010-09-01 15:33:43
46
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastAmerica America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 9. TOTAL ELECTRICITY REQUIREMENT PER CAPITA
2009
2020
2030
2050
2009
2020
2030
2050
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14 High EstimateLow Estimate
MW
h p
er
cap
ita
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastAmerica America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 9. TOTAL ELECTRICITY REQUIREMENT PER CAPITA
2009
2020
2030
2050
2009
2020
2030
2050
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14 High EstimateLow Estimate
MW
h p
er
cap
ita
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 46 2010-09-01 15:33:45
47
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastAmerica America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 9. TOTAL ELECTRICITY REQUIREMENT PER CAPITA
2009
2020
2030
2050
2009
2020
2030
2050
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14 High EstimateLow Estimate
MW
h p
er
cap
ita
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastAmerica America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 9. TOTAL ELECTRICITY REQUIREMENT PER CAPITA
2009
2020
2030
2050
2009
2020
2030
2050
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14 High EstimateLow Estimate
MW
h p
er
cap
ita
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 47 2010-09-01 15:33:46
TABL
E 12
. AVE
RAG
E A
NN
UA
L G
ROW
TH R
ATES
DU
RIN
G T
HE
PERI
OD
199
9Ñ20
09 (
%)
Coun
try
Gro
upPo
pula
tion
Tota
l Ene
rgy
Tota
l Ele
ctri
city
Nuc
lear
Ene
rgy
Nuc
lear
Cap
acit
y
Nor
th A
mer
ica
1.1
0.0
0.7
1.0
0.6
Lati
n Am
eric
a1.
4
2.
2
2.
7
3.
8
3.
5
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
0.4
0.0
0.9
-0.8
-0.3
East
ern
Euro
pe-0
.1
0.
6
1.
1
2.
5
0.
5
Afri
ca2.
3
2.
6
4.
7
-1
.5
0.
0
Mid
dle
East
and
Sou
th A
sia
1.9
5.9
4.6
4.2
8.1
Sout
h Ea
st A
sia
and
the
Paci
fic
1.2
3.8
3.5
Far
East
0.7
5.7
6.9
1.2
2.0
Wor
ld A
vera
ge1.
3
2.
4
2.
8
0.
6
0.
6
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 48 2010-09-01 15:33:46
49
TABL
E 12
. AVE
RAG
E A
NN
UA
L G
ROW
TH R
ATES
DU
RIN
G T
HE
PERI
OD
199
9Ñ20
09 (
%)
Coun
try
Gro
upPo
pula
tion
Tota
l Ene
rgy
Tota
l Ele
ctri
city
Nuc
lear
Ene
rgy
Nuc
lear
Cap
acit
y
Nor
th A
mer
ica
1.1
0.0
0.7
1.0
0.6
Lati
n Am
eric
a1.
4
2.
2
2.
7
3.
8
3.
5
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
0.4
0.0
0.9
-0.8
-0.3
East
ern
Euro
pe-0
.1
0.
6
1.
1
2.
5
0.
5
Afri
ca2.
3
2.
6
4.
7
-1
.5
0.
0
Mid
dle
East
and
Sou
th A
sia
1.9
5.9
4.6
4.2
8.1
Sout
h Ea
st A
sia
and
the
Paci
fic
1.2
3.8
3.5
Far
East
0.7
5.7
6.9
1.2
2.0
Wor
ld A
vera
ge1.
3
2.
4
2.
8
0.
6
0.
6
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 49 2010-09-01 15:33:46
50
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastAmerica America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 10. AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES DURING THE PERIOD 1999 — 2009
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8 PopulationTotal EnergyTotal ElectricityNuclear Energy
Annu
al G
row
th R
ate
(%)
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastAmerica America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 10. AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES DURING THE PERIOD 1999 — 2009
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8 PopulationTotal EnergyTotal ElectricityNuclear Energy
Annu
al G
row
th R
ate
(%)
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 50 2010-09-01 15:33:48
51
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastAmerica America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 10. AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES DURING THE PERIOD 1999 — 2009
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8 PopulationTotal EnergyTotal ElectricityNuclear Energy
Annu
al G
row
th R
ate
(%)
North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastAmerica America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific
FIGURE 10. AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES DURING THE PERIOD 1999 — 2009
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8 PopulationTotal EnergyTotal ElectricityNuclear Energy
Annu
al G
row
th R
ate
(%)
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 51 2010-09-01 15:33:49
TABL
E 13
. ES
TIM
ATES
OF
AVER
AG
E A
NN
UA
L G
ROW
TH R
ATES
DU
RIN
G T
HE
PERI
OD
200
9Ñ20
30 (
%)
Coun
try
Gro
upPo
pula
tion
Tota
l Ene
rgy
Tota
l Ele
ctri
city
Nuc
lear
Ene
rgy
Nuc
lear
Cap
acit
y
North A
meric
a0.8
0.0
Ñ
0.4
0.3
Ñ
0.7
0.8
Ñ
2.0
0.6
Ñ
1.8
Latin
Am
eric
a0.9
2.3
Ñ
2.8
3.4
Ñ
3.9
5.2
Ñ
8.9
4.9
Ñ
8.6
Western E
urope
0.1
-0.3
Ñ
0.2
0.7
Ñ
1.1
-0.8
Ñ
2.1
-1.7
Ñ
1.2
Eastern E
urope
-0.3
0.4
Ñ
0.7
1.1
Ñ
1.7
2.9
Ñ
4.2
2.8
Ñ
4.1
Afr
ica
1.8
4.0
Ñ
5.6
5.0
Ñ
8.3
7.3
Ñ
12.0
6.0
Ñ
10.7
Mid
dle
East a
nd S
outh A
sia
1.3
3.0
Ñ
4.3
4.6
Ñ
6.7
12.5
Ñ
15.6
9.8
Ñ
12.9
South E
ast A
sia
and t
he P
acif
ic0.8
2.3
Ñ
2.6
3.6
Ñ
4.4
Far E
ast
0.4
1.8
Ñ
2.3
2.7
Ñ
3.4
4.9
Ñ
6.5
4.5
Ñ
6.0
World
Average
0.9
1.5
Ñ
2.2
2.2
Ñ
3.2
2.2
Ñ
4.1
1.8
Ñ
3.7
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 52 2010-09-01 15:33:49
53
TABL
E 13
. ES
TIM
ATES
OF
AVER
AG
E A
NN
UA
L G
ROW
TH R
ATES
DU
RIN
G T
HE
PERI
OD
200
9Ñ20
30 (
%)
Coun
try
Gro
upPo
pula
tion
Tota
l Ene
rgy
Tota
l Ele
ctri
city
Nuc
lear
Ene
rgy
Nuc
lear
Cap
acit
y
North A
meric
a0.8
0.0
Ñ
0.4
0.3
Ñ
0.7
0.8
Ñ
2.0
0.6
Ñ
1.8
Latin
Am
eric
a0.9
2.3
Ñ
2.8
3.4
Ñ
3.9
5.2
Ñ
8.9
4.9
Ñ
8.6
Western E
urope
0.1
-0.3
Ñ
0.2
0.7
Ñ
1.1
-0.8
Ñ
2.1
-1.7
Ñ
1.2
Eastern E
urope
-0.3
0.4
Ñ
0.7
1.1
Ñ
1.7
2.9
Ñ
4.2
2.8
Ñ
4.1
Afr
ica
1.8
4.0
Ñ
5.6
5.0
Ñ
8.3
7.3
Ñ
12.0
6.0
Ñ
10.7
Mid
dle
East a
nd S
outh A
sia
1.3
3.0
Ñ
4.3
4.6
Ñ
6.7
12.5
Ñ
15.6
9.8
Ñ
12.9
South E
ast A
sia
and t
he P
acif
ic0.8
2.3
Ñ
2.6
3.6
Ñ
4.4
Far E
ast
0.4
1.8
Ñ
2.3
2.7
Ñ
3.4
4.9
Ñ
6.5
4.5
Ñ
6.0
World
Average
0.9
1.5
Ñ
2.2
2.2
Ñ
3.2
2.2
Ñ
4.1
1.8
Ñ
3.7
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 53 2010-09-01 15:33:50
@�No. 22
Where to order IAEA publicationsIn the following countries IAEA publications may be purchased from the sources listed below, or from major local booksellers. Payment may be made in local currency or with UNESCO coupons. AUSTRALIADA Information Services, 648 Whitehorse Road, MITCHAM 3132 Telephone: +61 3 9210 7777 • Fax: +61 3 9210 7788 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.dadirect.com.au
BELGIUMJean de Lannoy, avenue du Roi 202, B-1190 Brussels Telephone: +32 2 538 43 08 • Fax: +32 2 538 08 41 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.jean-de-lannoy.be
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ITALYLibreria Scientifica Dott. Lucio di Biasio “AEIOU”, Via Coronelli 6, I-20146 Milan Telephone: +39 02 48 95 45 52 or 48 95 45 62 • Fax: +39 02 48 95 45 48 Email: [email protected] • Website: www.libreriaaeiou.eu
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@�No. 22
Where to order IAEA publicationsIn the following countries IAEA publications may be purchased from the sources listed below, or from major local booksellers. Payment may be made in local currency or with UNESCO coupons. AUSTRALIADA Information Services, 648 Whitehorse Road, MITCHAM 3132 Telephone: +61 3 9210 7777 • Fax: +61 3 9210 7788 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.dadirect.com.au
BELGIUMJean de Lannoy, avenue du Roi 202, B-1190 Brussels Telephone: +32 2 538 43 08 • Fax: +32 2 538 08 41 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.jean-de-lannoy.be
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CHINAIAEA Publications in Chinese: China Nuclear Energy Industry Corporation, Translation Section, P.O. Box 2103, Beijing
CZECH REPUBLICSuweco CZ, S.R.O., Klecakova 347, 180 21 Praha 9 Telephone: +420 26603 5364 • Fax: +420 28482 1646 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.suweco.cz
FINLANDAkateeminen Kirjakauppa, PO BOX 128 (Keskuskatu 1), FIN-00101 Helsinki Telephone: +358 9 121 41 • Fax: +358 9 121 4450 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.akateeminen.com
FRANCEForm-Edit, 5, rue Janssen, P.O. Box 25, F-75921 Paris Cedex 19 Telephone: +33 1 42 01 49 49 • Fax: +33 1 42 01 90 90 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www. formedit.fr
Lavoisier SAS, 145 rue de Provigny, 94236 Cachan Cedex Telephone: + 33 1 47 40 67 02 • Fax +33 1 47 40 67 02 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.lavoisier.fr
GERMANYUNO-Verlag, Vertriebs- und Verlags GmbH, Am Hofgarten 10, D-53113 Bonn Telephone: + 49 228 94 90 20 • Fax: +49 228 94 90 20 or +49 228 94 90 222 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.uno-verlag.de
HUNGARYLibrotrade Ltd., Book Import, P.O. Box 126, H-1656 Budapest Telephone: +36 1 257 7777 • Fax: +36 1 257 7472 • Email: [email protected]
INDIAAllied Publishers Group, 1st Floor, Dubash House, 15, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Mumbai 400 001, Telephone: +91 22 22617926/27 • Fax: +91 22 22617928 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.alliedpublishers.com
Bookwell, 2/72, Nirankari Colony, Delhi 110009 Telephone: +91 11 23268786, +91 11 23257264 • Fax: +91 11 23281315 Email: [email protected]
ITALYLibreria Scientifica Dott. Lucio di Biasio “AEIOU”, Via Coronelli 6, I-20146 Milan Telephone: +39 02 48 95 45 52 or 48 95 45 62 • Fax: +39 02 48 95 45 48 Email: [email protected] • Website: www.libreriaaeiou.eu
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10-3
5831
10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_body.indd 56 2010-09-01 15:33:50
I N T E R N AT I O N A L AT O M I C E N E R G Y A G E N C YV I E N N A
I S B N 97 8 - 9 2 - 0 - 1 0 8 0 1 0 - 3I S S N 1 0 1 1 - 2 6 4 2
Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050
R E f E R E N C E d ATA S E R I E S No. 1 2010 Edition
@10-35831_IAEA-RDS-1_cover.indd 1 2010-09-01 15:35:43