water resources in the middle east: conflict and...

25-2韓國中東學會論叢第號

, 2005, 79 110韓國中東學會 ˜

Water Resources in the Middle East:

Conflict and Management

중동의 수자원 분쟁과 관리:

홍 성 민

한국외대

◁ Contents ▷

. IntroductionⅠ

. Water Resources in the Middle EastⅡ

. Water Conflict and Potential 'Water Wars'Ⅲ

. Water Management under International LawⅣ

. Concluding RemarkⅤ

key Word: Water Resources, Water War,

Conflict and Management, The Middle East

80 25-2 (2005. 2)韓國中東學會論叢第號

. IntroductionⅠ

The great civilizations arose on the banks of great rivers. These

civilizations built large irrigation systems and made the land

productive. Thecivilizations also collapsed relying on the water

supplies failed or were improperly managed. The water resources in

the 21st century is considered as the most important increasing

worldwide concern about human health, the environment, and the

path towards sustainable development. Of all the natural resources

needed for economic development, water is one of the most

essential, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions.

At any rate, water is the most precious resource on the planet as

humanity enters the 21st century. Water is an essential element of

daily life. Water is also required for producing many industrial

products, for generating power, and for moving people and goods -

all of which are important for the functioning of a modern,

developed society. In addition, water is essential for ensuring the

integrity and sustainability of the Earth’s ecosystems.

In the Middle East, water resources shared by Israel, Jordan,

Palestine and Syria are not sufficient to meet growing demands for

freshwater needs. Annual human use of the region's water

resources currently surpasses the safe or sustainable annual

freshwater yield. Future deficits are predicted to be quite severe.

The scarcity of freshwater in this region compounded by the

historical, political and religious tensions, makes the Middle East

one of the most intractable water disputes to be found anywhere on

the planet. Adding to its scarcity, much of Middle Eastern water

stems from three major waterways: the Tigris-Euphrates, Nile and

JordanRiver systems. Mutual reliance on these resources has made

water a catalyst for conflict, spurring confrontations such as the

1967 War and the Iran-Iraq War.

Regarding water resources, this paper aims to examine the

conflict and potential 'Water Wars' in the Middle East. It also

Water Resources in the Middle East: Conflict and Management 81

reviews the management of water resources in the region under

International Law. This paper, thus, consists of 1) Introduction, 2)

Water Resources in the Middle East, 3)Water Conflict and Potential

'Water Wars', 4) Water Management under International Law, and 5)

Concluding Remark.

. Water Resources in the Middle EastⅡ

2.1 The Crisis of World's Water

Global freshwater consumption rose six fold between 1900 and 1995

- more than twice the rate of population growth. About one third of the

world's population already lives in countries considered to be 'water

stressed'- that is, where consumption exceeds 10% of total supply. If

present trends continue, two out of every three people on Earth will

live in that condition by 2025.

According to Vital Water Graphics1) January 2003, agriculture and

domestic use each wasted 800 cubic km of water, and industry 400

cubic km in 2000. By 2025, the report estimates, those figures will

have risen to 1000, 1100 and 500 cubic km respectively. By then, an

estimated 300 cubic km of water will be lost as well through

evaporation from reservoirs, up 50% from 2000. AS you see in <Table

2 1>, the freshwater consists of very small portion among total world

water.

<Table 2 1> The World's Water

1) Almost 50% of the world's coasts are threatened by development.

Fish-farming, on land and at sea, now produces 30% of global supplies.

Agriculture uses about 75% of global water consumption and industry 20%.

UN Environment Programme, Vital Water Graphics, published by the UNEnvironment Programme (UNEP), January 2003.

82 25-2 (2005. 2)韓國中東學會論叢第號

kind % form %

saltwater 97.5

freshwater 2.5locked in glaciersgroundwaterlakes and rivers

68.930.8

0.3

Source: UNEP, 2003

In recent years the availability of and access to freshwater have been

highlighted as among the most critical natural resource issues facing

the world. The increase in water withdrawals implies that water stress

will increase significantly in 60% of the world, including large parts of

Africa, Asia and Latin America. The UN environmental report GEO

2000 states that global water shortage represents a full-scale

emergency, where‘the world water cycle seems unlikely to be able to

adapt to the demands that will be made of it in the coming

decades’(UNEP,1999). Similarly, the World Wide Fund for Nature

(WWF) emphasizes that ‘freshwater is essential to human health,

agriculture, industry and natural ecosystems, but is now running scarce

in many regions of the world’(WWF,1998).

The water crisis that exists is set to worsen despite continuing

debate over the very existence of such a crisis. For many years over

the past decades, 6,000 people and mainly children under five have

died every day. Descriptions more severe than ‘a crisis’ have been

associated with events in which 3,000 people have lost their lives in a

single day. What phrase can be used for the recurrence of higher loss

of life every day of every year over decades? That the world is in a

water crisis is undeniable, and the time to take action is now.2)

Chapter 18 of Agenda 21 (UN, 1992), adopted at the Earth Summit in

Rio de Janeiro, defined the overall goal of water policy developments.

The Rio Declaration stressed the importance of human being’s role as

2) UNESCO, "The World's Water Crisis," The UN World Water DevelopmentReport Water, 2003, P.5.


the first principle: Human beings are at the center of concerns for

sustainable development. They are entitled to a healthy and productive

life in harmony with nature. Obviously water is inevitable factor to

continue the sustainable development. The World Summit on

Sustainable Development (WSSD) elaborated the five theme areas in

Johannesburg, August/September 2002. These include water and

sanitation, energy, health, agriculture and biodiversity. Furthermore

water is relevant to all three strands of development - social, economic

and environmental. Agricultural sector is still important for water use in

the world.

Water resources can only be understood within the context of the

dynamics of the water cycle. These resources are renewable (except

for some groundwater), but only within clear limits, as in most cases

water flows through catchments that are more or less self-contained.

Water resourcesare also variable, over both space and time, with huge

differences in availability in different parts of the world and wide

variations in seasonal and annual precipitation in many places. This

variability of water availability is one of the most essential

characteristics of water resource management. Most efforts are

intended to overcome the variability and to reduce the unpredictability

of water resource flows. Both the availability and use of water are

changing. The reasons for concern over the world's water resources

can be summarized within three key areas: water scarcity, water

quality and water-related disasters. Each is discussed briefly here and

expanded on throughout this report.3)

2.2 Water Shortage in the Middle East

According to the World Bank, the Middle East and North Africa

region contain less than one percent of global water resources, while

having five percent of total world population. The number of water

scarce countries in the Middle East and North Africa has risen from

3) ibid. P.10.

84 25-2 (2005. 2)韓國中東學會論叢第號

three in 1955 to 11by 1990, and another seven more, including Syria

and Egypt are expected to join the list by 2025. With population rates

among the highest in the world, Middle Eastern countries are

consuming water at a much higher rate than can be replenished

naturally. <Table 2-2> shows water resources in the Middle East.

<Table 2-2> Water Resources in the Middle East

Source: Marwan Haddad, "An Approach for Regional Management of Water

Shortages in the Middle East," Ali I. Bagis, ed., Water as an Element of

Cooperation in the Middle East(Ankara: Hacettepe University), 1994, P. 71.

Note : OPT: Occupied Palestinian Territory (The West Bank including East

Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip). /c = Per Capita, Share = Percent of annual

withdrawal to internal renewable resources, Km = kilometer; D = domestic; Ind

= Industrial; Agr = Agricultural, In = Into the country from other countries; Out

= Out of the country, UAE = United Arab Emirates

This depletion has been compounded by wide spread domestic

pollution which has contributed to the general decline in the quality of

Country River FlowsAnnual Withdrawal of

WaterRenewable

Water ResourcesWater Use

D Ind Agr

In Outkm³/yr

Total /c Sharekm³/yr m³ %

Total /ckm³/yr m³ %

Egypt 56.5 0.0 56.4 1202 97 1.80 30 7 5 88

Syria 27.9 30.0 3.34 449 9 7.60 610 7 10 83

Jordan 0.4 0.0 0.45 173 41 0.70 160 29 6 65

Lebanon 0.0 0.9 0.75 271 16 4.80 1620 11 4 85

OPT* 0.2 0.0 0.22 124 30 0.72 400 23 1 76

Iraq 66.0 0.0 42.80 4575 43 34.00 1800 3 5 92

Israel 0.5 0.0 1.90 447 88 1.70 370 16 5 79

S. Arabia 0.0 0.0 2.23 321 106 2.20 160 45 8 47

UAE 0.0 0.0 0.42 429 140 0.30 190 11 9 80

Turkey 7.0 69.0 15.6 317 8 196.0 3520 24 19 57


available water. Expanding initiatives in agriculture and industry have

further reduced regionalwater availability. Driven by increasing

populations, many countries have begun to over exploit their

agricultural capabilities, resulting in the reduction of arable land. As

result, per capita water availability in the Middle East has become the

worst inthe world representing only 33 percent of Asian and 15 percent

of African levels. Nor have current desalination projects in the region

proven capable of meeting growing demands. The high energy and

large cost associated with desalination has limited efforts to the oil rich

Gulf States, such as Saudi Arabia.4) The extent of the emerging water

crisis is evidenced in a recent statement by Israel’s Minister of

Environment, Dalia Itzik, who warned that “within three or four months,

and especially next year, if there is drought this winter we might have

no water in the taps, but what there is will be undrinkable."5)

In the case of Renewable fresh water resources there is no universal

uniform on it since there is no international consensus on how to define

and measure renewable fresh water resources.As seen in <Table 2-3>,

the list of water-scarce countries in 1955 was seven including three

Middle Eastern countries: Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait.1990, 13 were

added among them eight from the Middle East: Algeria, Israel/Palestine,

Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, and

Yemen.UN studies anticipate adding another 10 countries by the year

2025 seven of them are from the Middle East: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran,

Libya, Morocco, Oman and Syria. This means that by the year 2025

some eighteen countries in this troublesome region will suffer from

water shortages.

<Table 2-3> The Annual Renewable Fresh Water Available Per PERSONALRanked by 1990 Availability ( in Cubic Meters)

4) See "From Scarcity to Security: Averting a Water Crisis in the Middle East

and North Africa", World Bank Report, 1996.5) Jerusalem Post, 11 July 2000.

86 25-2 (2005. 2)韓國中東學會論叢第號

Country 1955 1990 2025

AlgeriaBahrainEgyptIranIraqIsraelJordanKuwait

1,7701,4272,5616,203

18,4411,229

906147

689117

1,1232,2036,029

46132723

33268

630816

2,356264121

9

LebanonLibyaMoroccoOmanQatarSaudi Arabia

3,0884,1052,7634,240

8081,266

1,8181,0171,1171,266

75306

1,11335959041057

113

SudanSyriaTunisiaTurkeyUAEYemen

11,8996,5001,1278,5096,1961,098

4,7922,087

5403,626

308445

1,993732324

2,186176152

Source: Adel Darwish, Water Wars, 1994.

The Middle East is also a region where figures of water withdrawal

as percentage of renewable water supplies are among the highest in

the world, while the renewal rate is rather slow because of the arid

nature of the land.6)

6) Ibid. http://www.mideastnews.com/WaterWars.htm 05-10-01.


. Water Conflict and Potential 'Water Wars'Ⅲ

3. 1 Water Conflict in the Middle East

Shortage of water could lead to major political conflicts around the

world. Over 20 countries depend on the flow of water from other

nations for much of their water supply. For instance, the Nile flows

through Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt. If population rises as expected in

these countries from 150 million today to 340 million in 2050, the UN

has suggested that competition for increasingly scarce water resources

may lead to regional conflict. Many as essential thus see investment in

international diplomacy alongside aid.7)

The crisis over water in the Middle East is escalating. Despite

existing agreements, dwindling resources increasingly affected by

pollution, agricultural/industrial initiatives and population growth have

elevated the strategic importance of water in the region. The number of

water-scarce countries in the Middle East and North Africa has risen

from 3 in 1955 (Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait) to 11 by 1990 (with the

inclusion of Algeria, Israel and the Occupied Territories, Qatar, Saudi

Arabia, Somalia, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen).

Another 7 are anticipated to join the list by 2025 (Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran,

Libya, Morocco, Oman and Syria).

Adding to its scarcity, much of Middle Eastern water stems from

three major waterways: the Tigris-Euphrates, Nile and Jordan River

systems. Mutual reliance on these resources has made water a catalyst

for conflict, spurring confrontations such as the 1967 War (fomented by

Syria's attempts to divert water from Israel) and the Iran-Iraq War

(which erupted from disputes over water claims and availability).

Recognition of water's role as an obstacle in interstate relations has

spurred numerous attempts at resolution, including diplomatic efforts

(most notably the 1953-1955 U.S.-brokered Johnston negotiations) and

bilateral and multilateral treaty efforts, ranging from the 1959

7) Postnote, Access to water in developing countries, No. 178,May 2002, P. 3.

88 25-2 (2005. 2)韓國中東學會論叢第號

Agreement for the Full Utilization of Nile Waters to the 1994

Israeli-Jordanian Treaty. Increasingly, however, and despite these

agreements, nations have begun to come into conflict over water. The

natural scarcity of regional supplies, historically a point of contention,

has been reduced to crisis proportions by a variety of factors.

Influenced by declining availability and reductions in overall quality,

crisis zones have begun to emerge along the major rivers of the region.

Evolving conflicts between Turkey and Syria over the Tigris and

Euphrates Rivers; in the Jordan River Basin between Israel, the

Palestinian Authority and Jordan; among Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia

over the Nile River; and within Saudi Arabia are manifestations of

water's growing role as a strategic and political force.8)

historical, psychological and political barriers that have impeded

cooperation and deadlocked diplomacy, nations in the region are sliding

toward conflict over water. Water's growing role in the emerging hydro

politics of the region has stressed the need for a new approach to

safeguard this diminishing resource. The integration of water into

developing strategic cooperation frameworks becoming visible among

regional states could facilitate the protection and preservation of water

resources. This interaction could eventually pave theway for the

long-term security of Middle East water. In light of the formidable

barriers that have prevented agreement to date, such an approach may

represent the only method by which to turn back the tide of the new

water politics of the Middle East.9)

3. 1. 1 Turkey Syria (The Tigris and Euphrates)

The tigris and euphrates form a complex water system. The

Tigris and Euphrates are two of the longest and most famous rivers

in the world. Both rise in the high mountains of northeastern

8) Ilan Berman and Paul M. Wehbe, The New Water Politics of the MiddleEast, September 1999. http://www.freelebanon.org/articles/v33.htm.

9) Ibidem.


Anatolia and flow down through Turkey, Syria, and Iraq and

eventually join to form the Shatt Al-Arab 200 km before they flow

into the Gulf. Between them they account for about 28.5 per cent

of Turkey's total surface water flow. However the geography of the

two rivers is very different.

The contribution from each riparian country also varies sharply.

Contribution of Turkey.10) Syria and Iraq to the Euphrates and their

demands is shown in Figure 1.

(Figure 1) Contribution of Turkey, Syria and Iraq to the Euphrates and their Demands(in Billion cubic meters per year)

Source: Republic of Turkey, Water: A source of conflict of cooperation in the MiddleEast? http://www.mfa.gov.tr/grupa/ac/aci/ 05-10-01.

Despite the signing of a protocol ensuring Syrian access to Euphrates

water in 1987, Turkish development efforts have increasingly

threatened to marginalize and even eliminate Syrian access to water.

Most notably, the Southeast Anatolia (GAP) Project11) has provided

10) Republic of Turkey, Water: A source of conflict of cooperation in theMiddle East? http://www.mfa.gov.tr/grupa/ac/aci/ 05-10-01.

11) The Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) is a multi-sector and integrated

regional development effort approached in the context of sustainable

development. Its basic objectives include the improvement of living

standards and income levels of people so as to eliminate regional

90 25-2 (2005. 2)韓國中東學會論叢第號

Turkey, situated at the headwaters of the Tigris and Euphrates River

system, extensive control over the flow of Euphrates water. Turkish

disruption of the flow of the Euphrates in January 1990 to fill water

reservoirs in front of the Attaturk dam highlighted Syrian vulnerability

to Turkish control over upstream water resources. Further

complicating the issue is Syria's continued support for the extremist

PKK (Kurdish Workers'Party) in its insurgency against Turkey, a move

that has prompted Turkey to threaten a blockade of water.

In the future, Turkish-Syrian disputes over water could escalate

into regional conflict. Both Syria and Iraq, situated downstream from

Ankara, have become increasingly threatened by Turkey's

large-scale consolidation efforts. Once fully operational, the GAP

Project may reduce Euphrates water to Syria by 40% and Iraq by

up to 80%. Such activity, critical for Syria, will also be significant

enough to substantially affect Iraq, currently somewhat autonomous

because of its access to Tigris River water. In addition, aggressive

Turkish acquisition efforts, currently concentrated on the GAP

Project, are anticipated in the future to focus upon Tigris River

water as well. Though currently divided in their opposition to

Turkish efforts, such activity could nudge Syria and Iraq despite

their differences into a strategic alliance, possibly destabilizing the

region and precipitating a regional conflict.12)

development disparities and contributing to such national goals as social

stability and economic growth by enhancing productivity and employment

opportunities in the rural sector. The GAP had originally been planned in

the 70s consisting of projects for irrigation and hydraulic energy

production on the Euphrates and Tigris, but transformed into a multi-sector

social and economic development program for the region in the 80s. The

project area covers 9 administrative provinces (Adiyaman, Batman,

Diyarbakir, Gaziantep, Kilis, Mardin, Siirt, Sanliurfa and Sirnak) in the

basins of the Euphrates and Tigris and in Upper Mesopotamia. See More

details about GAP, http://www.gap.gov.tr/ 05-10-01.

12) Ilan Berman and Paul M. Wehbe, The New Water Politics of the Middle East,1999. http://www.freelebanon.org/articles/v33.htm 05-10-01.


3. 1. 2 Jordan Israel Palestinian Authority

The Jordan River Basin has also emerged as a flashpoint for conflict

over water. Resources in the area, suffering serious overuse as a result

of pollution and population growth, have increasingly impacted

interstate relations. Between Jordan and Israel, water resource issues

are reaching a fever pitch.

Despite the 1994 Israeli-Jordanian Treaty which established

comprehensive guidelines regulating the distribution, preservation and

availability of water from the Jordan and Yarmouk Rivers conflicts

over water have risen to the forefront of relations between the two

countries. Jordan, fed only by underground sources and the Jordan

River, has experienced an escalating water deficit one that is expected

to reach 250 million cubic meters (nearly 1/3rd of current annual

consumption) by 2010. At the same time, Israel currently utilizing

almost all-available water from its National Water System (consisting

of the West Bank Mountain Aquifer, the Coastal Aquifer and the Lake

Kinneret Basin) has been forced to resort to over exploitation of

available resources for expanding agricultural and industrial ventures.

As a result, water has become a critical bone of contention between

the two countries, a tension exacerbated by the recent effects of the

region's harsh climate. Facing a looming deficit in water availability

brought about by lingering drought conditions, Israel halved its annual

allocation of 2 billion cubic feet of water to Jordan in March 1999.

Jordan, hit hard and lacking adequate desalinization capabilities, has in

turn found itself unable to sustain current levels of consumption,

declaring drought conditions and mandating water rationing in May

1999.

In the north of the country, growing Syrian designs over the

Golan Heights, where Israel has remained firmly entrenched since

the 1967 War, threaten to jeopardize another source of dwindling

Israeli water, the Lake Kinneret Basin. At the same time, the

possibility of Palestinian control of the West Bank suggests, at the

92 25-2 (2005. 2)韓國中東學會論叢第號

very least, a further reduction of available water to Israel, currently

utilizing the majority of the West Bank Aquifer. Due to an amalgam

of factors, Israeli security prerequisites for dealing with the

Palestinian Authority the ability to protect its water sources from

hostile action, pollution or co-option are not currently met, making

water a critical emerging issue of dispute between the parties.

These fundamental disagreements have deadlocked talks between

the parties and edged them closer to confrontation.13)

3. 1. 3 Egypt Sudan Ethiopia

The beginnings of a crisis have materialized along the Nile as well.

Ethiopia, making movements toward state building for the first time in a

generation following the overthrow of the communist Mengistu regime

in 1991, has focused upon water distribution as an issue of paramount

concern. The North African country, currently ravaged by conflict with

Eritrea, possesses neither the economic stability nor the investor

confidence to facilitate desalination efforts. Consequently, Ethiopia has

increasingly objected to the water use of neighboring Egypt, claiming

present allocation regulated by a 1959 agreement over Nile water to

be extremely unequitable. Asserting the 1959 agreement to be

preferential to Egypt and Sudan, Ethiopia has hinted it may resort to a

unilateral exercise of sovereignty or a military confrontation with

Egypt.

This growing vulnerability is likely to become a major source of

political tension in the near future. Since Egypt has retained an

aggressive military stance with relation to water, domestic Ethiopian

development efforts (such as growing attempts to dam the Blue

Nile) are likely to result in increasing regional tensions. In addition,

Sudan has become an increasingly unstable factor in the Middle

Eastern water calculus. Ravaged by civil war and guided by a

13) Ilan Berman and Paul M. Wehbe, The New Water Politics of the MiddleEast, 1999. http://www.freelebanon.org/articles/v33.htm 05-10-01.


radical Islamic fundamentalist regime, Sudan has manifested

expansionist desires over Nile water, threatening to withdraw from

the 1959 Agreement in August 1995. These movements have

increasingly jeopardized the stability of neighboring nations,

endangering Ethiopian and Egyptian access to water. As a result,

tensions along the Middle East/North Africa boundary are on the

rise, as water exacerbates and destabilizes the fragile regional

status quo.14)

3. 1. 4 Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia is another country rapidly approaching a dramatic

crisis over water. In Saudi Arabia's case, however, the crisis stems

from the country's lack of rivers and permanent bodies of water, as

a result of which it relies heavily upon underground water sources

for its agricultural and potable water supply. At present, 90% of

Saudi Arabia's non-renewable deep-well water is utilized for

agricultural purposes. These resources, already precariously low,

have been significantly eroded in recent years as a consequence of

the Gulf conflict. Iraq's burning of oil wells during the Gulf War

further contaminated underground water resources already degraded

by pollution seepage from agricultural activity, creating a deficit that

has failed to be resolved to date, despite significant Saudi

desalinization attempts.

Disputes are also becoming visible between Saudi Arabia and

Jordan over the Qa Disi Aquifer. Though currently utilized almost

exclusively by Saudi Arabia, Jordanian vested interest in the aquifer,

which runs beneath both countries, has increased in recent years,

with Jordan's Minister of Agriculture publicly accusing Saudi Arabia

of overuse of the aquifer as far back as November 1992. Expanding

Jordanian utilization of the aquifer, which is likely in light of

Jordan's looming water crisis, may emerge as a contentious issue

14) Ibidem.

94 25-2 (2005. 2)韓國中東學會論叢第號

between the parties in the near future.15)

3. 2 The Potential Wars in the Middle East

3. 2. 1 The basic argument for Water Wars

The 261 international watersheds, covering a little less than one half

of the land surface of the globe, affect about 40% of the world's

population.Water is a vital resource to many levels of human survival

for which there is no substitute; it ignores political boundaries,

fluctuates in both space and time, and has multiple and conflicting

demands on its use.The problems of water management are

compounded in the international realm by the fact that the international

law that governs it is poorly developed, contradictory, and

unenforceable.16)

Aaron T. Wolf stressed at the ADC New Millennium meeting on

International Water Management in the 21st Century, Valencia, Spain,

18-20 December 1997 that the basic argument for 'water wars'is as

follows: Water is a resource vital to all aspects of a nation's survival,

from its inhabitants' biology to their economy.scarcity of water in an

arid and semi-arid environment leads to intense political pressures,

often referred to as 'water stress,' a term coined by Falkenmark

(1989).water not only ignores our political boundaries, it evades

institutional classification and eludes legal generalizations.

Interdisciplinary by nature, water's natural management unit, the

watershed - where quantity, quality, surface- and groundwater all

interconnect - strains both institutional and legal capabilities often past

capacity.Analyses of international waterinstitutions find rampant lack of

consideration of quality considerations in quantity decisions, a lack of

specificity in rights allocations, disproportionate political power by

special interest, and a general neglect for environmental concerns in

15) Ibidem.16) Aaron T. Wolf, Water Policy. Vol. 1, No. 2, 1998. pp. 251-265..


water resources decision-making.

Furthermore, international law only concerns itself with the rights

and responsibilities of states.Some political entities that might claim

water rights, therefore, would not be represented, such as the

Palestinians along the Jordan or the Kurds along the Euphrates.In

addition, cases are heard by the International Court of Justice (ICJ)

only with the consent of the parties involved, and no practical

enforcement mechanism exists to back up the Court's findings,

except in the most extreme cases.A state with pressing national

interests can therefore disclaim entirely the court's jurisdiction or

findings.all the intricacies and limitations involved, it is hardly

surprising that the International Court of Justice has decided only a

single case regarding international water law.

The datasets of conflict are explored for those related to water -

only seven minor skirmishes are found in this century; no war has

ever been fought over water.contrast, over 3,600 treaties have been

signed historically over different aspects of international waters -

145 water-related treaties were signed in the same period.treaties,

collected and catalogued in a computerized database along with

relevant notes from negotiators, are assessed for patterns of

conflict resolution.over water seems neither strategically rational,

hydrographically effective, nor economically viable. Shared interests

along a waterway seem to consistently outweigh water's

conflict-inducing characteristics.once cooperative water regimes are

established through treaty, they turn out to be impressively resilient

over time, even between otherwise hostile riparian, and even as

conflict is waged over other issues.These patterns suggest that the

more valuable lesson of international water is as a resources whose

characteristics tend to induce cooperation, and incite violence only

in the exception.

3. 2. 2 Potential Water Wars

Oil has always been thought of as the traditional cause of conflict in

the Middle Eastpast and present. Since the first Gulf oil well gushed in

96 25-2 (2005. 2)韓國中東學會論叢第號

Bahrain in 1932, countries have squabbled over borders in the hope

that ownership of a patch of desert or a sand bank might give them

access to new riches. No longer. Now, most borders have been set, oil

fields mapped and reserves accurately estimated - unlike the water

resources, which are still often unknown. Water is taking over from oil

as the likeliest cause of conflict in the Middle East.17)

The potential water wars in the Middle East, where water resources

are severely limited, have been mentioned about water crisis in the

world. The crisis over water in the Middle East is escalating. Despite

existing agreements, dwindling resources increasingly affected by

pollution, agricultural/industrial initiatives and population growth have

elevated the strategic importance of water in the region. For Middle

Eastern nations, many already treading the razor's edge of conflict,

water is becoming a catalyst for confrontation an issue of national

security and foreign policy as well as domestic stability. Given water's

growing ability to redefine interstate relations, the success of future

efforts to address water sharing and distribution will hinge upon

political and strategic approaches to this diminishing natural resourc

e.18)

When President Anwar Sadat signed the peace treaty with Israel in

1979, he said Egypt will never go to war again, except to protect its

water resources. King Hussein of Jordan has said he will never go to

war with Israel again except over water and the Untied Nation

Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali has warned bluntly that the

next war in the area will be over water. From Turkey, the southern

bastion of NATO, down to Oman, looking out over the Indian Ocean, the

countries of theMiddle East are worrying today about how they will

satisfy the needs of their burgeoning industries, or find drinking water

for the extra millions born each year, not to mention agriculture, the

main cause of depleting water resources in the region.All these nations

17) Adel Darwish, Water Wars, Geneva conference on Environment and Qualityof Life, June 1994. http://www.mideastnews.com/WaterWars.htm 05-10-01.

18) TWM, The natural solution to water-related disputes,

http://www.twm.co.nz/wtrpolitics.htm 05-10-01..


depend on three great river systems, or vast underground aquifers,

some of which are of `fossil water' that cannot be renewed.

. Water Management under International LawⅣ

4. 1 The Development and Cooperation of the Euphrates-Tigris Basin19)

Iraqwas the first riparian to develop engineering projects in the

basin. The Hindiya barrage on the Euphrates was constructed

between 1911 and 1914 to prevent flooding and transfer water to

canals for year-round irrigation. In the 1950s Iraq built a second

Euphrates barrage at ar-Ramadi. Like the Hindiya Barrage, its main

objective was flood control and irrigation.

Both Syria and Turkey were slow to develop use of the waters of

the two rivers before the 1960s. During the second half of the

1950s the Russians conducted research on the Syrian reach of the

Euphrates and proposed a dam at Tabqa. In 1966 a Syrian-Soviet

agreement led to construction of the Tabqa High Dam. The dam,

renamed al-Thawrah (the Revolution), was completed in 1973. A

current Syrian water development called the Great Khabur Project is

aimed at using the Khabur River for irrigation. Syria is also

conducting technical studies for another irrigation project on the

Tigris.

Turkey began constructing the Keban Dam on the Euphrates in

1966; production of electricity began in 1974. Turkey built the

Karakaya Dam on the Euphrates in 1986, as part of the

Southeastern (Grand) Anatolia Development Project (GAP). Ataturk

Dam, the heart of the GAP, was completed in 1992.

The 20th century has witnessed various bilateral attempts at

19) Ibrahim Kaya, The Euphrates-Tigris basin: An overview and opportunitiesfor cooperation under international law, No. 44, Fall/Winter 1998.http://ag.arizona.edu/OALS/ALN/aln44/kaya.html#overview 05-10-01.

98 25-2 (2005. 2)韓國中東學會論叢第號

cooperation within the Euphrates-Tigris basin. In 1920 the French

and British governments, as the mandatory powers in Mesopotamia,

signed a treaty20) regarding utilization of the waters of the

Euphrates and Tigris. The Turco-French Protocol, signed in 1930,

committed the Turkish and French governments to coordinating any

plans to use the waters of the Euphrates. The principle of mutual

cooperation over water development was extended IN A Protocol

annexed to the 1946 Treaty of Friendship and Good Neighborly

Relations between Turkey and Iraq (UN 1963). The agreement

encompassed both rivers and their tributaries. At that time Turkey

and Iraq agreed to share related data and consult with each other

in order to accommodate both countries' interests. The 1946 treaty

mandated a committee to implement these agreements. Although

none of this has yet occurred, Caponera (1993) pointed out that, if

fully implemented, the 1946 Agreement would constitute a good

basis for ensuring optimal cooperative water management between

Turkey and Iraq.

The Joint Technical Committee for Regional Waters was

established between Turkey and Iraq in 1982; Syria has participated

since September 1983. The Joint Committee deals with all water

issues among the basin riparians. It helps to ensure that the

procedural principles of consultation and notification are followed as

required by international law. For example, in the Committee's

November 1989 meeting, Turkey informed its neighbors that the

Euphrates' flow would be interrupted for one month and that, prior

to the interruption.

International law cannot decide the allocation of the waters of the

Euphrates and Tigris.21) Nonetheless, law provides a basis for

20) Article 3 of this treaty provided that the two governments should set up a

commission responsible for examining irrigation plans in the region.

21) Overall, Iraqi and Syrian proposals for water allocation might be

summarized as follows: 1) Each riparian will notify the other riparians

of its water demands on each river separately; 2) Total potential

water supply of each river will be calculated, 3) if the total demand

exceeds the total supply of a given river, the 'overdraft' amount will


negotiation. Equitable utilization is inherently flexible. It willnot

produce definitive solutions and allocations, but will serve as a

foundation for negotiation and cooperation. An international

watercourse agreement would lay down rights and obligations of

riparians more precisely. In addition to the agreement a joint

watercourse institution is necessary to realize cooperation among

the watercourse states.

4. 2 Water Management in the Region

Political and economic stability in the Middle East will depend

increasingly on water availability. Annual per capita fresh

wateravailability in MENA countries was only about 1200 cubic

metres - compared with a world average of about 7000 to 7500

cubic metres.22) Almost all fresh and renewable waters such as

rivers, streams, lakes, and groundwater, which are termed

'conventional water' or 'traditional water,'have already been

exploited or will be fully developed in the countries of the Middle

East and North Africa by the end of this century.23)

The World Bank has made the politically-charged issue of scarce

water resources one of its so-called millennium development goals.

Although the MENA region accounts for five percent of the world

population, it has only one percent of accessible fresh water

worldwide, according to the World Bank. Fresh water is a scarce

resource, constituting just 2.5% of the planet's total moisture (with

two-thirds of that supply trapped in glaciers)24)

be deducted proportionally from the demand of each riparian state

(Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs 1995).

22) Stanley Fischer et al, The Economics of Middle East Peace, London: MITThe Press 1993, P.246.

23) Masahiro Murakami, Managing Water for Peace in the Middle East:Alternative Strategies, The United Nations University, 1995,

http://www.unu.edu/unupress/unupbooks/80858e/80858E02.htm#1.1%20B

ackground 05-10-01..

24) Water Project list is introducing by

100 25-2 (2005. 2)韓國中東學會論叢第號

Moreover desertification, rising populations and demand coupled

with poor management leave MENA region facing immediate

difficulties. The available fresh water figure for Yemen was about

500 cubic meters less than half the water poverty line of 1000

cubic meters. And nearly 70% of municipal water in cities like

Amman went unaccounted for, while Egypt recovered only two

percent of its irrigation costs.25) Despite themany political

complications in the Middle East, there is a recent history of tacit,

although limited, cooperation over multinational river development

even among the bitterest opponents on the Nile, Euphrates, and

Jordan Rivers.26)

Water policies and management issues have taken place over the

last decade or so, particularly since the Earth Summit in Rio de

Janeiro. The history could even go back further, to the Mar del

Plata Action Plan of 1977, but perhaps the best starting point is the

Dublin Conferenceof 1992,from which emerged the Dublin Statement

on Water and Sustainable Development that was a contribution to

the preparation of the Earth Summit in Rio. This statement contains

much of merit, including the four Dublin Principles that have

become the cornerstone of much debate on international approaches

to water policies.27)

4. 2. 3 International Water Law and Water Agreement

4. 2. 3. 1 International Water Law

In the last few decades, a broad system of principles and

http://www.euroconsult.nl/resources/implementationeuwaterframeworkdirectiv

eprojectlist.pdf and see about Water-Resources Data in Areas of Israeli,

Jordanian, and Palestinian Interest, http://exact-me.org/trends/ 05-10-01..

25) Aljazeera, "Middle East faces water crisis", Sunday 21, September 2003..26) Masahiro Murakami, op.cit.,

http://www.unu.edu/unupress/unupbooks/80858e/80858E02.htm#1.1%20Backgr

ound 05-10-01.:

27) ibid. P.17.


practices has evolved, resulting in a high number of bilateral and

multilateral treaties in many international river basins around the

world. By 1990, more than 280 international treaties dealing with

trans boundarywater issues had been signed. Based on them,

international organizations and other institutions have attempted to

derive more general principles and new concepts governing shared

fresh-water resources. The work of the International Law

Association (ILA), a private organization, and the International Law

Commission (ILC) of the United Nations are among the most

important and authoritative examples. Despite not being legally

binding on states, the "Helsinki Rules on the Uses of the Waters of

International Rivers" of 1966 codified by the ILA and the "Law of

the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses" drafted by

the ILC in 1991 are generally accepted as part of customary

international law.28)

Efforts to codify international law concerning watercourses date to

the beginning of this century, but the most important efforts are

recent: The International Law Association's (ILA) 1966 Helsinki

Rules and the United Nations' 1997 Convention on the Law of the

Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses (hereafter, the

Helsinki Rules and the UN Watercourse Convention). The ILA, a

non-governmental scholarly organization, adopted the Helsinki Rules

in 1966 (ILA 1967). Delegates to this meeting proposed that

international waters have to be shared equitably and reasonably. In

1970, the United Nations General Assembly gave the International

Law Commission (ILC) the task of codifying and developing the law

regarding "non-navigational use of international watercourses"

(Resolution 2669; ILC 1994). The ILC's work ultimately resulted in

the UN Watercourse Convention, opened for signature in 1997 (UN,

1997). Like the Helsinki Rules, the UN Watercourse Convention

28) Stephan Libiszewski, "Water Disputes in the Jordan Basin Region and their

Role in the Resolution of the Arab-Israeli Conflict", ENCOP: Environmentand Conflicts Project Occasional Paper No. 13, August 1995,

http://www.mideastweb.org/Mew_water95.pdf 05-10-01.

102 25-2 (2005. 2)韓國中東學會論叢第號

provides for the equitable and reasonable utilization of international

watercourses. Both sets of rules list factors for determining what is

reasonable and equitable, including: geography, hydrology, climate,

past and present utilization, economic and social needs of the

riparians, population, costs of alternative measures, other resources,

practicability of compensation in instance of dispute, and how the

needs of one riparian may be fulfilled without substantial injury to

another riparian.

4. 2. 3. 2 The Water Provisions of the Jordan-Israel Treaty of Peace

Since the early 1980s, progress has been made on the ground

between Israel and Jordan. Meeting in the field, close to the

diversion point from the Yarmuk River into the Jordanian King

Abdullah Canal (KAC, earlier known as the Ghor Canal), water

experts from the two sides met to consider Jordanian requests for

increasing the diversion into the KAC. Trustful and solid relations

developed in what came to be known as the "Picnic Table Talks ",

and Israel consented to alleviate some of the water short-age in

Jordan by increasing the quantities diverted. This, however, did not

change Jordan 's position that it was entitled to more water from

the Yarmuk, as well as from the Jordan, including from the Sea of

Galilee. Jordan stood by the position that it is riparian to the entire

Jordan River (from its headwaters in the Banias, Hasbani, and Dan

springs) and saw Israel 's diversion of water from the Sea of

Galilee into its National Water Carrier as a breach of internationally

accepted principles. Israel, on the other hand, maintains, as it did

then, that Jordan is riparian only to that portion of the Jordan along

their common border, and therefore has no legitimate claim to the

Jordan River upstream of its confluence with the Yarmuk.

This was the situation when the two countries entered direct

negotiations, following the procedure established in the Madrid

peace conference of 1991. Many rounds of negotiations ensued, in


Washington and later in the region. In the beginning, there were

two Arab delegations to the Washington rounds: a Jordanian

delegation with Palestinian participation, and a Palestinian delegation

with Jordanian presence. This resulted from Israel 's refusal at the

time to recognize the Palestinians as a separate entity. Jordan

delayed its agreement to the "Agenda " for the final peace talks

until Israel and the Palestinians signed the Oslo I Accord on the

White House lawn on September 13,1993. The 'Agenda' had been

ready a year earlier, but was signed only the day after the

Israeli-Palestinian agreement, at the State Department in

Washington. This led to intensification of the negotiations, which

moved to the region, and culminated in the Peace Treaty. The state

of belligerency between the two countries came to an end with the

signing of the Peace Treaty,celebrated by a ceremony in the

Arava/Araba Valley just north of Aqaba/Eilat, on October 26, 1994

(referred to herein as 'the Treaty). It is a comprehensive

agreement, covering all areas of concern between the two countries,

including water.29)

4. 2. 3. 3 The Palestinian-Israeli Water Agreement in Oslo II

Oslo II is an interim agreement signed between the Palestinians

and Israelis in September 1995, named with reference to "Oslo I,"

the initial Declaration of Principles which initiated the peace process

in September 1993.Article 40 of the Agreement 's Annex III, entitled

"Water and Sewage," was initialed by the water negotiators Mr.

Nabil Sharif for the Palestinians and Mr.Noah Kinarti for Israel in

the early morning hours of September 18,1995.It was the first

portion of the overall Interim Agreement to be concluded between

the two sides·30)

29) Uri Shamir, "Water Agreements Between Israel and Its Neighbors," YaleSchool of Forestry & Environmental Studies, Bulletin Series 103, pp.275-276.

http://www.yale.edu/environment/publications/bulletin/103pdfs/103shamir.pdf.

104 25-2 (2005. 2)韓國中東學會論叢第號

4. 2. 4 Water Problem between Israel and Palestine in the

Arab-Israeli Conflict

The most important thing in the region is peacemaking between

Israel and PLO. To make mutual benefits for a water-related

cooperation between Israel and Palestine, they have to cease the

political conflict. This is the key factor to manage the water

peacefully. Peace pipeline in the Middle East is shown in Figure

4-1.

30) Ibid. 280.


(Figur 4-1) Peace pipeline in the Middle East.

106 25-2 (2005. 2)韓國中東學會論叢第號

Source: Libiszewski, 1995 Copyright ENCOP - Reproduced by permission

Indeed, both the Oslo and the Cairo Agreements provide for

Israeli-Palestinian cooperation in the field of water management and

joint development of additional water resources (e.g. Annex IV, Art. 2.B

of the Declaration of Principles). But the sharp separation of technical

dimensions of water management from the political question of water

distribution is blocking any progress in this field.

Considering the genetic account of water disputes in the Jordan Basin

region and the analysis of current peace negotiations it can no longer be

doubted that water has played and still plays an important part in the

Arab-Israeli conflict. However, as always in multi causal conflicts, the

interesting question does not so much concern the presence of a certain

factor in the causal process. Presumably no one at all will deny the

involvement of water in the Arab-Israeli conflict. Rather it is its relative

weight within the mix of causal factors that must be evaluated.31)

. Concluding RemarkⅤ

Human beings in the 21st century is facing formidable challenges:

rapid population growth; increasing demands for water to satisfy

people's needs, both in agriculture and in expanding urban centers;

failing water quality, pollution, and associated health and

environment impacts; groundwater depletion; and international

conflict over trans-boundary water resources.

Oil has always been thought of as the cause of conflict in the

Middle East till now. Since the first oil well discoveredin Bahrain in

1932, the Middle Eastern countries have squabbled over borders.

Now, most borders have been set, oil fields mapped and reserves

31) Stephan Libiszewski , op.cit. http://www.mideastweb.org/Mew_water95.pdf

05-10-01..


accurately estimated unlike the water resources. Water is taking

over from oil as the likeliest cause of conflict in the Middle East.

The issue of water in the Middle East can only be solved through

cooperation and agreement. However, such cooperation and

agreement depends on an official body of law in order for a treaty

to survive political disagreement between the riparian states. But

international law cannot decide the allocation of the waters of the

Euphrates and Tigris. Nonetheless law provides a basis for

negotiation. Equitable utilization is inherently flexible. It will not

produce definitive solutions and allocations, but will serve as a

foundation for negotiation and cooperation. An international

watercourse agreement would lay down rights and obligations of

riparians more precisely. In addition to the agreement a joint

watercourse institution is necessary to realize cooperation among

the watercourse states.

In the 21st century, it is clear that growing concerns in water sub

sectors represent only one symptom of a much larger global crisis

facing our social, economic, natural resource management, and

environmental systems. The problems of water management are

compounded in the international realm by the fact that the

international law that governs it is poorly developed, contradictory,

and unenforceable.

Issues of water management and water distribution are simply not

separable. The reason for this lies in the fact that improved

management is normally coupled with high economic, social and/or

political costs. This is especially the case when management options

imply development of unconventional resources like sea water

desalination or water imports from distant regions or restructuring

of water-intensive branches like irrigated agriculture. Regarding the

water resources in the Middle East, the most important thing in the

region is peacemaking between Israel and PLO. To make mutual

benefits for a water-related cooperation between Israel and

Palestine, they have to cease the political conflict. This is the key

factor to manage the water peacefully in the Middle East.

108 25-2 (2005. 2)韓國中東學會論叢第號

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박희경 최동진 역 물의 위기, , . (marq de Villers). The「 Fate of our Most

서울 세종연구원Precious Resource). : . 2001.

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arko lu, Ali Et Al.� � The Political Economy of Regional Cooperation in

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중동의 수자원 분쟁과 관리:

홍 성 민

한국외대

중동지역에 있어서 물의 부족은 중동지역을 지구상에서 가장 다루기 어려

운 수자원 분쟁지역으로 만들면서 역사적 정치적 및 종교적 긴장 등으로 복,

합적으로 관련돼 있다.

물의 부족에 부가하여 중동의 물은 주된 세가지 수로 티그리스 유프라테: -

스강 나일강 및 요르단 강으로부터 발원한다 수자원에 관한 상호의존은, .

년 중동전쟁과 이란 이라크 전쟁과 같은 대치상황을 유발함으로써 물이1967 -

분쟁을 위한 기폭제가 되고 있다 이와 관련하여 본 논문은 중동에 있어서 물. '

전쟁의 분쟁과 가능성을 고찰한다 본고는 또한 국제법하에서 이 지역의 수자' .

원 관리를 고찰한다.

석유는 항상 중동분쟁의 원인으로 현재까지 인식되고 있다 그러나 물은 이.

제 중동에 있어서 석유로부터 분쟁의 원인을 대체하고 있다.

중동에서 수자원 분쟁은 협력과 합의를 통할 때 만 해결이 가능하다 그러.

나 국제법은 유프라테스나 티그리스강의 물의 배분을 정할 수 없다 그럼에도.

불구하고 법은 협상을 위한 기본을 제공한다 하지만 수자원 관리의 문제는.

그것을 관리하는 국제법이 개발되어 있지 못하고 모순적이며 강제력이 없다

는 사실 때문에 기능을 발휘하지 못하고 있다.

수자원의 관리와 배분은 단순히 분리할 수 없는 것이다 개선된 관리는 높.

은 경제적 사회적 정치적 비용과 정상적으로 일치한다는 사실에 기인하고 있, ,

다는 것이 그 이유이다 특히 관리의 옵션이 해수의 담수화나 물의 수입과 같.

은 전통적인 자원의 개발을 의미하는 경우에는 더욱 그렇다 중동에서 수자원.

문제와 관련하여 가장 주요한 문제 중 하나는 이스라엘과 간의 평화협상PLO

이다 이는 중동에서 물문제를 평화적으로 해결하는 중요한 요인이 되고 있다. .

주제어: Water Resources in the Middle East: Conflict and Management

water resources in the middle east: conflict and...

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