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Tourism Trends Sharon Orrell March 2016
£18.1
£45.1
£19.1
Tourism Spend in England 2014 (£bn)
Domestic Overnight Domestic Day Trips Inbound
Source: GBTS 2014, GBDVS 2014, IPS 2014
In 2014, tourists spent just over £82bn in England
The Regional Picture
Leicestershire Spending c.
£750m
The Market Context
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
From inflation to deflation A halt in inflation has helped boost household budgets
Meanwhile wages have grown faster than inflation for first time since 2007
Source: Oxford Economics 2015
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1990
19
91
1992
19
93
1994
19
95
1996
19
97
1998
19
99
2000
20
01
2002
20
03
2004
20
05
2006
20
07
2008
20
09
2010
20
11
2012
20
13
2014
20
15
2016
20
17
2018
20
19
2020
20
21
2022
20
23
2024
CPI and Wage growth, % change year on year
Earnings
CPI
1.00
1.15
1.30
1.45
1.60
£/Euro Exchange Rate
Source: Oanda
Exchange rate continues to make European holidays more affordable for UK residents – and the UK less affordable for Eurozone residents
15% 17% 18% 17% 19% 20% 24% 24% 25% 25% 27% 25% 27% 18% 19% 17%
47% 52% 50% 52% 53% 51%
54% 52% 51% 53% 52% 55% 52% 51% 53% 52%
28% 22% 19% 14%
16% 20% 16% 17% 15% 13% 13% 10% 10%
13% 15% 16%
10% 9% 13% 17% 12% 9% 6% 6% 9% 8% 8% 10% 11% 18% 13% 15%
Attitudes to the Recession 2008-2015
It hasn't affected me, and I'm not worrying It hasn't affected me, but I'm concerned
It's affected me a little It's seriously affected me
Feelings about the downturn – the profile of a recession
Source: VisitEngland Staycation Research
51%
38%
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Easter 2012
June 2012
July 2012
Sept 2012
Nov 2012
Jan 2013
Apr 2013
July 2013
Sept 2013
Nov 2013
Jan 2014
Apr 2014
Jul 2014
Sept 2014
Nov 2014
Jan 2015
June 2015
Sept 2015
Nov 2015
Jan-15
Tourism Business Confidence about Next 2-3 Months % "Very Confident"
Accommodation Attractions
…and businesses are more confident as well
The Headlines
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Apr
-06
Jul-0
6 O
ct-0
6 Ja
n-07
A
pr-0
7 Ju
l-07
Oct
-07
Jan-
08
Apr
-08
Jul-0
8 O
ct-0
8 Ja
n-09
A
pr-0
9 Ju
l-09
Oct
-09
Jan-
10
Apr
-10
Jul-1
0 O
ct-1
0 Ja
n-11
A
pr-1
1 Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Jan-
12
Apr
-12
Jul-1
2 O
ct-1
2 Ja
n-13
A
pr-1
3 Ju
l-13
Oct
-13
Jan-
14
Apr
-14
Jul-1
4 O
ct-1
4 Ja
n-15
A
pr-1
5 Ju
l-15
Domestic Tourism in England – Rolling 12 Month Trend Trips (m)
2015 has seen differing domestic overnight trends by trip purpose
Source: GBTS
Holiday
VFR
Business
YTD
+5%
+10%
0%
52 52 51 60 55 58 58 57 53 54
45 45 46 39
36 37 36 37 39 42
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
100
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Domestic Holidays Overseas Holidays
Trips (m) Numbers of Domestic / Overseas Holidays Taken by GB Residents
Source: GBTS / International Passenger Survey
(est based on YTD)
How are Brits changing their holiday taking?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Domestic and Overseas Holidays 1989 - 1998
Overseas holidays UK Holiday (Pure Holiday + VFR Holiday)
Food for thought - what happened after the last recession?
Source: UKTS / IPS
Recession
-0.4
5.3
C2DE
C1
AB
2015 (est.) vs 2006 Change in Trip Volumes (m)
Social Grade
The changing domestic holiday in England – 2006 - 2015
-2.6
Source: GBTS
69% 66% 71%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
18-34 35-54 55+
‘I like to find bargains, even when I don’t need to save the money’
NB: “discretionary thrift” is a habit that’s likely to stay with us
“This is habit forming, rather than just a blip. For younger
people, a significant proportion of their life has been spent in
this climate - it’s seen as weird to pay over the odds”
Gavin Flynn, Senior VP, IHG
Source: Trajectory / VE Trends Research
Wealth Health
Thoughtless
Spendthrifts
‘In the know’
Flair Care
Earn Discern
…and the recession hasn’t just brought about a change in the amount people spent
-0.4
5.3
C2DE
C1
AB
2015 (est.) vs 2006 Change in Trip Volumes (m)
Social Grade
3.4
0.3
-1.5
55+
35-54
16-34
2015 (est.) vs 2006 Change in Trip Volumes (m)
Age
-2.6
Source: GBTS
The changing domestic holiday in England – 2006 - 2015
Source: ONS Population prospects
65-79s +11.2%
80+ +19.2%
Under 18s +10%
18-34s +1.2%
35-49s -3.4%
50-64s +10.5%
More younger people
More older people (NB – baby boomers are now retiring – a different mindset than previous generations!)
Fewer ‘squeezed middle’
UK population change 2013-2020
The population is becoming older
Source: ONS Population prospects
65-79s +11.2%
80+ +19.2%
Under 18s +10%
18-34s +1.2%
35-49s -3.4%
50-64s +10.5%
More younger people
More older people (NB – baby boomers are now retiring – a different mindset than previous generations!)
Fewer ‘squeezed middle’
UK population change 2013-2020
...though the current baby boom will also have an impact
Source: ONS Population prospects
65-79s +11.2%
80+ +19.2%
Under 18s +10%
18-34s +1.2%
35-49s -3.4%
50-64s +10.5%
More younger people
More older people (NB – baby boomers are now retiring – a different mindset than previous generations!)
Fewer ‘squeezed middle’
UK population change 2013-2020
...piling pressure on the squeezed middle
And remember…families aren’t what they were
-0.4
5.3
C2DE
C1
AB
2015 (est.) vs 2006 Change in Trip Volumes (m)
Social Grade
3.4
0.3
-1.5
55+
35-54
16-34
2015 (est.) vs 2006 Change in Trip Volumes (m)
Age
-0.7
1.2
1.4
Seaside
Countryside
City / Large Town
2015 (est.) vs 2006 Change in Trip Volumes (m)
Destination Type
-2.6
Source: GBTS
The changing domestic holiday in England – 2006 - 2015
3
3.1
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3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
4
Apr
-06
Jun-
06
Aug
-06
Oct
-06
Dec
-06
Feb-
07
Apr
-07
Jun-
07
Aug
-07
Oct
-07
Dec
-07
Feb-
08
Apr
-08
Jun-
08
Aug
-08
Oct
-08
Dec
-08
Feb-
09
Apr
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Jun-
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Aug
-09
Oct
-09
Dec
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Feb-
10
Apr
-10
Jun-
10
Aug
-10
Oct
-10
Dec
-10
Feb-
11
Apr
-11
Jun-
11
Aug
-11
Oct
-11
Dec
-11
Feb-
12
Apr
-12
Jun-
12
Aug
-12
Oct
-12
Dec
-12
Feb-
13
Apr
-13
Jun-
13
Aug
-13
Oct
-13
Dec
-13
Feb-
14
Apr
-14
Jun-
14
Aug
-14
Oct
-14
Dec
-14
Feb-
15
Apr
-15
Jun-
15
Aug
-15
Domestic Holiday Trips in England Average Length (Nights)
Holiday trips are generally getting shorter
“It doesn’t feel right spending too much on holiday just now”
It means we can make most of a long weekend …and means we can have more short holidays rather than longer ones
Source: GBTS
Last minute bookings make it hard for businesses to plan ahead – but offer opportunities to capture spontaneous trip takers
Source: GBTS: All holidays with firm booking
11%
26%
14%
20%
11%
18%
61%
36%
Longer Breaks (4+ nights)
Short Breaks (1-3 nights)
Period between accommodation booking and domestic holiday
7 days or less 2-3 weeks About a month 2 months or more
www.visitengland.com/biz
Domestic Consumer Trends Sharon Orrell March 2016