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Headlines 2008. Lehman Brothers collapse sends shockwave round world. Credit lockdown puts companies in crisis mode. Auto Execs Fly Corporate Jets to D.C., Tin Cups in Hand. Economic Signs Point to Longer, Deeper Recession. Aid in Hand, Clock Ticks for Detroit; - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Headlines 2008

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Page 2: Headlines 2008

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Headlines 2008

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Page 3: Headlines 2008

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Headlines 2009

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U.S. Automotive IndustryU.S. Automotive IndustryEconomic Impact Economic Impact

$576 billion in retail sales in 2008$576 billion in retail sales in 2008

More than 14% of total retail sales are More than 14% of total retail sales are generated at new-vehicle dealerships generated at new-vehicle dealerships

18,94318,943 new-vehicle dealerships in U.S. new-vehicle dealerships in U.S.

Over 1 million jobs at new-vehicle Over 1 million jobs at new-vehicle dealershipsdealerships

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Page 5: Headlines 2008

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Number of Franchised Number of Franchised New-Car DealershipsNew-Car Dealerships

(Reduction from 50,000 in 1950)(Reduction from 50,000 in 1950)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

YTD 2009

Source: NADA Industry Analysis

Recession1990-92 Recession

2007

Recession1980-82

Recession2001

4

Page 6: Headlines 2008

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Source: NADA Industry Analysis

8.53 8.27 8.14 8.70 8.85 8.42 8.06 7.61 7.50 7.67 7.80 7.60 6.79

6.57 6.86 7.408.20 8.50 8.70 8.74 9.00 9.30 9.23 8.70 8.50

6.36

0

5

10

15

20

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Mill

ion

s o

f U

nit

s

Cars Lt. Trucks

13.2 Million Light Vehicles sold in 200813.2 Million Light Vehicles sold in 2008(Truck/SUV accounted for 48% of Sales)(Truck/SUV accounted for 48% of Sales)

Forecast for 2009 is 10.1-10.4 millionForecast for 2009 is 10.1-10.4 million

15.1 15.116.9

15.517.117.4 16.616.8 16.916.8 16.116.5

13.2

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Page 7: Headlines 2008

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CUV’s and Small Cars Sell Down CUV’s and Small Cars Sell Down during Clunker Programduring Clunker Program

-50% -45% -40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%

Truck-based SUVs

Pickups

Large Cars

Midsize Cars

Minivans, Vans

Luxury Cars

Small Cars

Crossover Utility Vehicles YTD 2009

2008

Source: Ward’s Automotive6

Page 8: Headlines 2008

88Source: R.L. Polk, Ward’s Automotive

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Un

its

GMNissanFordHondaToyota

Sales of HybridsSales of Hybridswere were 315,688 in 2008315,688 in 2008

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Page 9: Headlines 2008

Total DealershipTotal DealershipAdvertising ExpendituresAdvertising Expenditures

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

$9

Bil

lio

ns o

f d

oll

ars

Source: NADA Industry Analysis8

Page 10: Headlines 2008

Dealership Advertising Dealership Advertising Expenditures Expenditures

Per New Light Vehicle SoldPer New Light Vehicle Sold

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

Do

lla

rs

Source: NADA Industry Analysis9

Page 11: Headlines 2008

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Television 16.6%

Direct mail 10.2%

Newspaper 52%

Newspaper 23.2%

Other 15.1%Other 16.6%

1998 2008

Advertising Advertising Expenditures at New Car Expenditures at New Car

Franchised DealersFranchised Dealers

Radio 15.3%

Television 18.8%

Radio 15.2%

Internet 17.2%

Source: NADA Industry Analysis10

Page 12: Headlines 2008

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0123456789

101112131415161718

Perc

enta

ge

Internet Advertising as a Internet Advertising as a percentage of Total percentage of Total

Advertising ExpendituresAdvertising Expenditures

Source: NADA Industry Analysis11

Page 13: Headlines 2008

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National “Buy Now” National “Buy Now” PSA campaignPSA campaign

Most extensive public advertising Most extensive public advertising campaign in NADA historycampaign in NADA history

Extraordinary support from mediaExtraordinary support from media Ads are running:Ads are running:

• In nearly 350 marketsIn nearly 350 markets• On 343 TV stations or cable systemsOn 343 TV stations or cable systems• On 189 radio stations or groupsOn 189 radio stations or groups• In 172 newspapers or publishing groupsIn 172 newspapers or publishing groups

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Page 14: Headlines 2008

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U.S. Auto Industry 2009U.S. Auto Industry 2009

Industry has declined to 10.1-10.4 Industry has declined to 10.1-10.4 million units, but outlook is better for million units, but outlook is better for 2010: 12 million units2010: 12 million units

Dealer network continues to Dealer network continues to downsize as GM, Chrysler restructuredownsize as GM, Chrysler restructure

““Cash for clunkers:” 700,000 vehicles Cash for clunkers:” 700,000 vehicles soldsold

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Page 15: Headlines 2008

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Advertising Outlook, Advertising Outlook, 2009 and Beyond2009 and Beyond

Expect advertising spending to increase with new-Expect advertising spending to increase with new-vehicle sales in 2010. vehicle sales in 2010.

Expect even higher rates of ad spending by 2012, Expect even higher rates of ad spending by 2012, lifted by new-vehicle sales reaching 15 million units lifted by new-vehicle sales reaching 15 million units for total advertising spending of well over $7 billion.for total advertising spending of well over $7 billion.

Larger dealerships use more TV, and industry Larger dealerships use more TV, and industry consolidation will drive relatively higher TV use.consolidation will drive relatively higher TV use.

2009 advertising spending has dropped 19.5 2009 advertising spending has dropped 19.5 percent as of mid-year (June), but ad spending percent as of mid-year (June), but ad spending during Clunkers period will reduce this rate of during Clunkers period will reduce this rate of decline slightly.decline slightly.

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““Cash for Clunkers”Cash for Clunkers”Top Sold:Top Sold:

1.1. Toyota CorollaToyota Corolla2.2. Honda CivicHonda Civic3.3. Toyota CamryToyota Camry4.4. Ford FocusFord Focus5.5. Hyundai ElantraHyundai Elantra

Top Traded:Top Traded:1.1. Ford Explorer 4WDFord Explorer 4WD2.2. Ford F-150 PickupFord F-150 Pickup3.3. Jeep Grand CherokeeJeep Grand Cherokee4.4. Ford Explorer 2WDFord Explorer 2WD5.5. Dodge CaravanDodge Caravan

Source: Department of Transportation15

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Clunkers Impact in August: Clunkers Impact in August: August vs. Year-to-Date ShareAugust vs. Year-to-Date Share

Share of U.S. New Light Vehicle Market Share of U.S. New Light Vehicle Market

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Volkswagen

Hyundai

Chrysler

Nissan

Honda

Ford Motor

Toyota

General Motors

Aug-09

YTD 2009

Source: Ward’s Automotive16

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