Skills: Global Trends, Challenges and Opportunities

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Skills: Global trends, challenges and opportunities

Andreas SchleicherDirector for Education and Skills, OECD

07 April 2016, Ljubljana

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The kind of things that are easy to teach are now easy to automate, digitize or outsource

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3Changes in the demand for skillsTrends in different tasks in occupations (United States)

Source: Autor, David H. and Brendan M. Price. 2013. "The Changing Task Composition of the US Labor Market: An Update of Autor, Levy, and Murnane (2003)." MIT Mimeograph, June.

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Robotics

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>1m km, one minor accident, occasional human intervention

Computers and car drivers

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Augmented Reality

Augmented reality

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TomTom has 5 trillion data points on traffic, adding 6 billion per day.

BMW cars have 50 sensors, 7 cameras, could recognize open parking spots for other cars

GE expects to connect all its machines to the Internet, making them smarter and more efficientTesco exploits data on more than 100 market baskets a second and 6 million transactions a day

The Digital Economy is the economy

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50$B in sales, 54 000 employees,1m / employee

US Average = 120k / employee 70$B in sales110 000 employees600k / employee

200k / employee

unleashing firms that gain scale without mass

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A lot more to come3D printingSynthetic biologyBrain enhancementsNanomaterialsEtc.

A lot more to come

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10Online shoppingIndividuals who ordered goods or services online, 2007 and 2014Technology is changing our daily livesSource: OECD Trends Shaping Education 2016The pervasion of technology into all facets of life presents both opportunities and challenges for skills development, flexible jobs, new services and innovations

skills.oecdBetter Skills, Better Jobs, Better Lives

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Inspired by The race between technology and education Pr. Goldin & Katz (Harvard)

Industrial revolutionDigital revolutionUniversal public schoolingTechnologySkills

Social pain

Prosperity

The Race between Technology and Skills

ProsperitySocial pain

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Source: WEF 2015 Global Risks

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Populations are getting olderOld-age dependency ratioPopulation aged 65 and over relative to population aged 15-64

Source: UN, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision.As populations get older, sustainable economic and social prosperity will require people with better skills, more actively participating, being better utilised at work

skills.oecdBetter Skills, Better Jobs, Better Lives

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Source : OECD (2013), Trends Shaping Education. Primary source: World Bank (2012), World Databank: Net Migration.Net migration (in millions of people) into regions, with countries grouped by income level and OECD members, 1960-2010. Increasing migration towards the developed world

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Inequality is rising15Trends in real household incomes Bottom, middle and top income earners; OECD average; 1985 = 1Source: OECD Income Distribution Database (IDD)Note: OECD is the unweighted average of 17 countries (Canada, Germany, Denmark, Finland, France, United Kingdom, Greece, Israel, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, New Zealand, Sweden and United States).Growing inequality is a challenge to social cohesion and sustainable growth. Better skills policies can help improve social outcomes and economic opportunities, especially for those at the bottom

skills.oecdBetter Skills, Better Jobs, Better Lives

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Source: OECD Unit Labour Costs Annual IndicatorsThe share of income going to labour is decliningShare of income going to labour

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Productivity growth is slowing

17GDP per hour worked, total economy, percentage change at annual rateSource: OECD Productivity database, January 2015Productivity improvements are declining in most countries. Having the right skills and using them effectively can help countries produce more with less, and grow sustainably.

skills.oecdBetter Skills, Better Jobs, Better Lives

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Labour productivity growth (2001 = 100)ManufacturingServicesSource: OECD, The Future of Productivity, forthcomingand leading to bifurcated productivity growth.

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Education in the past

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Education now

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Knowledge

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A lot more to come

Character qualities

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Source: OECD (2015), NLSY

Cognitive skills decilesSocial & emotional skills deciles

College completion USA

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Happy at 20 (New Zealand)

Source: OECD (2016), CC

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Metacognition

A lot more to come

Metacognition

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To discuss OECDs work with countries on building more effective skills strategies contact: andreas.schleicher@oecd.org

To learn more about the OECDs work on skills visit: skills.oecd.org

For more information27

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