see the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures,...
TRANSCRIPT
See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
North American Equity ResearchJune 17, 2013
Airfreight and Surface TransportationTom Wadewitz AC
212-622-6461
Bloomberg: JPMA WADEWITZ<GO>
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
Michael Weinz, CFA
212-622-6383
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
Alex Johnson
212-622-6513
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
Presentation to the MCSAC Subcommittee on CSA
Airfreight and Surface Transportation
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RatingPrice Target(Dec 2013)
Target P/E
Current Upside
Price6/12/2013
Blended Forward P/E
RailroadsCNI Canadian National N $110 16x 9.9% 100.09 15.5xCP Canadian Pacific OW $153 18x 21.6% 125.84 16.8xCSX CSX N $26 13x 4.5% 24.88 13.1xNSC Norfolk Southern N $80 13x 5.5% 75.81 12.9xUNP Union Pacific OW $167 15x 8.1% 154.52 14.9xKSU Kansas City Southern OW $114 22x 5.9% 107.60 23.4xGWR Genesee & Wyoming OW $97 19x 8.7% 89.20 18.4x
ParcelFDX FedEx OW $116 15x 19.0% 97.49 13.6xUPS UPS OW $90 16x 5.4% 85.39 16.2x
LogisticsCHRW C.H. Robinson UW $50 16x -11.0% 56.17 18.6xLSTR Landstar N $53 17x 0.9% 52.51 18.2xQLTY Quality Distribution N $10 10x 1.5% 9.85 11.2xEXPD Expeditors N $36 19x -4.3% 37.63 20.9xUTIW UTi Worldwide N $13 17x -13.7% 15.06 25.5x
IntermodalHUBG Hub Group OW $40 17x 13.0% 35.39 15.9xJBHT J.B. Hunt OW $76 21x 6.9% 71.08 21.6xPACR Pacer N n/a n/a n/a 6.50 16.3x
TruckloadHTLD Heartland N $14 17x 1.0% 13.86 16.9xKNX Knight N $16 15x -4.0% 16.66 16.8xSWFT Swift OW $17 16x 1.7% 16.71 16.9xWERN Werner N $22 15x -9.8% 24.40 17.5x
LTLABFS Arkansas Best UW $13 9x -32.2% 19.17 19.2xCNW Con-way UW $31 12x -20.1% 38.80 17.7xODFL Old Dominion OW $46 17x 7.9% 42.63 16.8x
S&P 500 1,616.08 14.2x
Transport Rating and Price Target Summary
Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan estimates. As of June 12, 2013.
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Transport Demand Trends
Rail Carloadings Show Modest Y/Y Growth
Data through 2013 Week 22 (ended June 1, 2013).
Source: Association of American Railroads.
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Car
load
s (T
hous
ands
)
2010 2011 2012 2013
Week
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Car
load
s (T
hous
ands
)
2010 2011 2012 2013
Week
Total
Intermodal
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Transport Demand Trends
Rail Carloadings Show Modest Y/Y Growth (Cont’d)
Data through 2013 Week 22 (ended June 1, 2013).
Source: Association of American Railroads.
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Car
load
s (T
hous
ands
)
2010 2011 2012 2013
Week
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Car
load
s (T
hous
ands
)
2010 2011 2012 2013
Week
Industrial
Automotive
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0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2006 (peak) 2009 (trough) 2012 2013
Transport Demand Trends
Cass Shipments Index Shows Modest Y/Y Contraction in April and May
Data through May 2013.
Source: Cass Information Systems.
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32
38
44
50
56
62
68
Aug-06 Apr-07 Dec-07 Aug-08 Apr-09 Dec-09 Aug-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Aug-12 Apr-13
ISM
Mfg
. (C
ompo
site)
ISM Data Provides a Read to Transport Activity
ISM – Manufacturing Shows Contraction in May
Sources: Institute for Supply Management via Bloomberg.
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Aug-06 Apr-07 Dec-07 Aug-08 Apr-09 Dec-09 Aug-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Aug-12 Apr-13
ISM
Mfg
. (O
rder
s -In
vent
orie
s)
Orders Minus Inventories Was Also Weak in May
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Truckload Pricing Trends
Dry Van Pricing Ex-Fuel Shows Modest Y/Y Growth in March and April
Sources: Truckloadrate.com via Bloomberg.
Over the Past 12 to 24 Months Pricing Across Truck Types Is Roughly Unchanged
$1.25
$1.35
$1.45
$1.55
$1.65
$1.75
$1.85
Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
Dry Van Refrigerated Flatbed
$1.30
$1.35
$1.40
$1.45
$1.50
$1.55
$1.60
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Rev
enue
per
Loa
ded
Mile
Ex-
Fuel
2013 2012 2011 2010
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700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Truc
k Fl
eet (
Thou
sand
s)
-16.6% -28.3%
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Truc
k Fl
eet (
Thou
sand
s) -7.6% -10.5%
Truckload Capacity Analysis
Rolling Capacity of Over-the-Road Class 8 Tractor Fleet Assuming a 5-Year Life
Source: ACT and J.P. Morgan estimates. Data through March 2013.
Rolling Capacity of Over-the-Road Class 8 Tractor Fleet Assuming a 7-Year Life
2012 capacity rose 3.6%, assuming a 5-year life
2012 capacity contracted 3.2%, assuming a 7-year life
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Truckload Capacity Analysis
Class 8 Tractor Sales Are Likely to Be Modestly Lower in 2013
Source: ACT and J.P. Morgan estimates. Data through March 2013.
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Truc
ks (T
hous
ands
)
Retail Sales Net Orders
Estimated Replenishment Rate (~21,000 tractors/month)
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Truckload Capacity Analysis
Truckload Fleet Size (# of Tractors)
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Fleet Size at Large Carriers Has Been Declining
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012JBHT TL 3,453 2,861 2,588 2,585 2,093 JBHT Ded 4,622 4,358 4,639 4,918 5,253 KNX 3,699 3,736 3,866 3,976 4,134 SWFT 17,346 16,025 16,090 15,902 15,732 WERN 7,700 7,250 7,275 7,200 7,150 USAK 2,392 2,328 2,363 2,235 2,184 CGI 2,477 2,741 2,702 2,633 2,698 CVTI 3,292 3,113 3,087 2,978 2,884 UACL 2,819 2,669 2,449 2,527 2,493 MRTN 2,376 2,264 2,146 2,281 2,252 Total 50,176 47,345 47,205 47,235 46,873
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012JBHT TL -24.1% -17.1% -9.5% -0.1% -19.0%JBHT Ded -10.0% -5.7% 6.4% 6.0% 6.8%KNX -1.6% 1.0% 3.5% 2.8% 4.0%SWFT -9.8% -7.6% 0.4% -1.2% -1.1%WERN -6.7% -5.8% 0.3% -1.0% -0.7%USAK -6.5% -2.7% 1.5% -5.4% -2.3%CGI 6.9% 10.7% -1.4% -2.6% 2.5%CVTI -7.4% -5.4% -0.8% -3.5% -3.2%UACL -1.8% -5.3% -8.2% 3.2% -1.3%MRTN -1.7% -4.7% -5.2% 6.3% -1.3%Total -8.2% -5.6% -0.3% 0.1% -0.8%
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-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
UN
P
CSX
NSC CN
I
CP
KSU
GW
R
FDX
UPS
CH
RW
EXPD
LSTR
QLT
Y
UTI
W
HU
BG
JBH
T
PAC
R
HTL
D
KN
X
SWFT
WER
N
AB
FS
CN
W
OD
FL
S&P
500
Railroads Parcel Logistics Truckload LTL S&PIntermodal
83.1% 101.4%
Transport Stock Performance
Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan Estimates. As of June 12, 2013 (intraday).
2013 YTD Performance for the Transportation Stocks through June 12, 2013 (intraday)
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CSA Analysis
Among Truckload Carriers: Western Express, Marten, and CRST Malone (Flatbed) Are Deficient on 2 or More BASIC Scores
Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.
Power Units Drivers Unsafe DrivingHours of Service
(HOS) ComplianceDriver
FitnessControlled Substances
and AlcoholVehicle
MaintenancePerformance Threshold 60% / 65% 60% / 65% 75% / 80% 75% / 80% 75% / 80%Swift 15,212 14,300 53.9% 29.9% 53.0% 37.5% 59.4%Schneider 10,526 12,041 26.5% 12.9% 39.9% 0.0% 57.5%J.B. Hunt 10,020 10,705 17.1% 41.8% 39.6% 6.2% 47.7%Werner 8,391 10,293 45.3% 21.4% 45.9% 20.8% 51.5%Landstar 4,906 5,374 20.3% 57.2% 25.3% 2.0% 57.9%US Xpress 6,142 7,484 66.4% 38.3% 41.0% 12.5% 52.6%Crete 5,210 5,001 33.5% 30.4% 23.3% 4.1% 37.6%Knight Transportation 3,920 3,950 49.2% 29.3% 71.4% 29.1% 54.9%Knight Refrigerated 787 844 43.7% 28.7% 58.4% No viol. within 1 yr 28.9%Celadon 3,500 2,800 58.5% 22.4% 79.5% 3.5% 33.1%Heartland Express 2,826 2,886 35.9% 9.4% 27.3% 22.9% 10.7%Con-way Truckload 2,763 2,933 50.7% 14.8% 56.7% No viol. within 1 yr 36.1%Dart 2,255 2,205 47.6% 14.0% 57.1% 7.0% 82.8%Western Express 2,550 2,550 92.9% 50.2% 93.1% 75.0% 76.1%USA Truck 2,347 2,453 63.2% 59.8% 61.2% 16.6% 65.5%Covenant 1,592 2,484 67.9% 11.2% 37.9% 33.3% 36.7%Marten Transport 2,446 2,546 64.8% 13.2% 81.7% 10.5% 20.0%P.A.M. Transportation 1,789 2,158 57.8% 30.7% 69.8% 70.8% 53.4%CRST Expedited 1,931 3,979 88.2% 24.5% 55.0% 14.5% 36.5%CRST Dedicated 437 686 57.1% 61.4% 57.4% 7.4% 49.2%CRST Malone (Flatbed) 1,362 1,362 93.7% 86.6% 72.1% 10.4% 80.9%NFI 924 1,405 7.0% 33.7% 57.5% 0.0% 51.0%
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CSA Analysis
Among LTL, Small Package, and Drayage Carriers: Only Roadrunner Is Deficient on 2 or More BASIC Scores
Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.
Power Units Drivers Unsafe DrivingHours of Service
(HOS) ComplianceDriver
FitnessControlled Substances
and AlcoholVehicle
MaintenancePerformance Threshold 60% / 65% 60% / 65% 75% / 80% 75% / 80% 75% / 80%LTLArkansas Best 3,816 6,730 4.6% 20.5% 23.5% 0.5% 46.5%Old Dominion 6,640 7,363 5.4% 35.5% 20.9% 0.4% 42.9%Estes Express 5,812 5,795 8.5% 33.0% 15.4% 0.0% 55.1%Con-way 9,104 14,103 3.1% 18.5% 27.0% No viol. within 1 yr 22.4%YRCW 8,435 14,279 9.3% 32.0% 40.0% No viol. within 1 yr 69.7%YRC New Penn 879 1,534 8.8% 15.4% 29.7% 0.0% 29.6%YRC Holland 3,910 5,239 19.5% 29.4% 5.8% 0.0% 68.2%YRC Reddaway 1,441 1,402 0.9% 16.1% 5.1% 2.1% 23.8%Roadrunner 1,177 1,207 46.8% 78.3% 63.5% 0.0% 78.2%Saia 3,645 4,180 7.0% 17.9% 34.8% 0.0% 52.2%Vitran 2,238 2,893 25.7% 35.9% 38.8% 0.0% 79.2%FedEx Freight 14,703 18,820 0.7% 13.6% 29.1% 0.0% 44.8%UPS Freight 6,888 10,946 11.7% 45.2% 40.5% 0.0% 50.1%
Small PackageFedEx 42,395 45,909 2.7% 6.0% 50.0% 0.0% 16.9%UPS 97,642 86,673 4.0% 10.8% 24.9% 0.0% 15.8%
DrayageComtrak 2,670 2,651 42.1% 23.9% 38.0% 12.2% 85.2%Pacer Cartage 872 872 7.9% 54.9% 10.0% 28.0% 82.2%
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CSA Analysis
BASIC Score Comparison: Unsafe Driving – Performance Threshold of 60% or 65%
Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Sw
ift
Schn
eide
r
J.B.
Hun
t
Wer
ner
Land
star
US
Xpre
ss
Cre
te
Knig
ht T
rans
porta
tion
Knig
ht R
efrig
erat
ed
Cel
adon
Hea
rtlan
d Ex
pres
s
Con
-way
Tru
cklo
ad
Dar
t
Wes
tern
Exp
ress
USA
Tru
ck
Cov
enan
t
Mar
ten
Tran
spor
t
P.A.
M. T
rans
porta
tion
CR
ST E
xped
ited
CR
ST D
edic
ated
CR
ST M
alon
e (F
latbe
d)
NFI
Uns
afe
Driv
ing -
Low
er is
Bet
ter
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CSA Analysis
BASIC Score Comparison: Hours of Service (HOS) Compliance – Perf. Threshold of 60% or 65%
Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Sw
ift
Schn
eide
r
J.B.
Hun
t
Wer
ner
Land
star
US
Xpre
ss
Cre
te
Knig
ht T
rans
porta
tion
Knig
ht R
efrig
erat
ed
Cel
adon
Hea
rtlan
d Ex
pres
s
Con
-way
Tru
cklo
ad
Dar
t
Wes
tern
Exp
ress
USA
Tru
ck
Cov
enan
t
Mar
ten
Tran
spor
t
P.A.
M. T
rans
porta
tion
CR
ST E
xped
ited
CR
ST D
edic
ated
CR
ST M
alon
e (F
latbe
d)
NFI
Fatig
ued
Driv
ing
(Hou
rs o
f Ser
vice)
-Lo
wer i
s Be
tter
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CSA Analysis
BASIC Score Comparison: Driver Fitness – Performance Threshold of 75% or 80%
Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Sw
ift
Schn
eide
r
J.B.
Hun
t
Wer
ner
Land
star
US
Xpre
ss
Cre
te
Knig
ht T
rans
porta
tion
Knig
ht R
efrig
erat
ed
Cel
adon
Hea
rtlan
d Ex
pres
s
Con
-way
Tru
cklo
ad
Dar
t
Wes
tern
Exp
ress
USA
Tru
ck
Cov
enan
t
Mar
ten
Tran
spor
t
P.A.
M. T
rans
porta
tion
CR
ST E
xped
ited
CR
ST D
edic
ated
CR
ST M
alon
e (F
latbe
d)
NFI
Driv
er F
itnes
s -Lo
wer
is B
ette
r
17Air
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CSA Analysis
BASIC Score Comparison: Controlled Substances and Alcohol – Perf. Threshold of 75% or 80%
Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Sw
ift
Schn
eide
r
J.B.
Hun
t
Wer
ner
Land
star
US
Xpre
ss
Cre
te
Knig
ht T
rans
porta
tion
Knig
ht R
efrig
erat
ed
Cel
adon
Hea
rtlan
d Ex
pres
s
Con
-way
Tru
cklo
ad
Dar
t
Wes
tern
Exp
ress
USA
Tru
ck
Cov
enan
t
Mar
ten
Tran
spor
t
P.A.
M. T
rans
porta
tion
CR
ST E
xped
ited
CR
ST D
edic
ated
CR
ST M
alon
e (F
latbe
d)
NFI
Con
trolle
d Su
bsta
nces
and
Alc
ohol
-Lo
wer
is B
ette
r
18Air
freig
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CSA Analysis
BASIC Score Comparison: Vehicle Maintenance – Performance Threshold of 75% or 80%
Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Sw
ift
Schn
eide
r
J.B.
Hun
t
Wer
ner
Land
star
US
Xpre
ss
Cre
te
Knig
ht T
rans
porta
tion
Knig
ht R
efrig
erat
ed
Cel
adon
Hea
rtlan
d Ex
pres
s
Con
-way
Tru
cklo
ad
Dar
t
Wes
tern
Exp
ress
USA
Tru
ck
Cov
enan
t
Mar
ten
Tran
spor
t
P.A.
M. T
rans
porta
tion
CR
ST E
xped
ited
CR
ST D
edic
ated
CR
ST M
alon
e (F
latbe
d)
NFI
Vehi
cle
Mai
nten
ance
-Lo
wer
is B
ette
r
19Air
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CSA Analysis
Comparison of Inspection Rates (Total per Driver)
Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.
0.0x
0.5x
1.0x
1.5x
2.0x
2.5x
3.0x
3.5x
4.0x
4.5x
5.0xSw
ift
Schn
eide
r
J.B.
Hun
t
Wer
ner
Land
star
US
Xpre
ss
Cre
te
Knig
ht T
rans
porta
tion
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CSA Analysis
Comparison of Crash Ratios (Total per Driver) – Score Is Out of 100
Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.
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CSA Analysis
Comparison of Injuries or Fatalities Ratios (Total per Driver) – Score Is Out of 100
Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.
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CSA Analysis
Comparison of Vehicle Out-of-Service Orders Issued as a Result of an Inspection
Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.
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CSA Analysis
Comparison of Driver Out-of-Service Orders Issued as a Result of an Inspection
Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.
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Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple research analysts are pr imarily responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an “AC” on the cover or within the document individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the research analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report.
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Disclosures
J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of March 30, 2013
Overweight (buy)
Neutral (hold)
Underweight (sell)
J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage 43% 44% 13% IB clients* 54% 47% 38% JPMS Equity Research Coverage 42% 50% 9% IB clients* 74% 64% 57%
*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rating category. Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table above.
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