schwarzinst policy report c grose leg polarization report

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Schwarzenegger Institute Report

University of Southern California | Price School of Public Policy

Political Reforms in California are Associated with Less Ideologically

Extreme State Legislators

March 2016

Christian R. Grose

Associate Professor University of Southern California

Price School of Public Policy Dept. of Political Science

[email protected]

Schwarzenegger Institute Report University of Southern California

Price School of Public Policy

mailto:[email protected]

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SIGNIFICANT FINDINGS

Evidence suggests electoral reforms in California are associated with an

ideological shift by legislators away from the extremes.

Since the introduction of top-two primaries and independently drawn district

lines, the Legislature is becoming more moderate and less polarized.

From 2011 (pre-reform) to 2014 (post-reform):

· The California Assembly has seen a 34% reduction in legislator ideological

extremity.

· The California Senate has seen a 31% reduction in legislator ideological

extremity.

· The reduction in ideological extremity and legislative polarization has been

most pronounced among Democratic legislators.

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The Changing Landscape of California’s Politics: The Political Reform Earthquake of 2012

In 2012, California’s political landscape changed dramatically. For the first time ever, elections

were conducted using the novel nonpartisan top-two primary; and also for the first time ever, the state’s

legislative districts were drawn not by the legislators or the courts – but by a nonpartisan commission.

Voters prior to 2012 adopted both of these reforms at the ballot box. On the side of one or both of these

political reforms was a bipartisan and nonpartisan coalition of then-Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger,

Common Cause, the California Chamber of Commerce, the California NAACP, California AARP, former

governor Gray Davis, former lieutenant governor Abel Maldonado, political activist Charles Munger, Jr.,

former speaker of the California Assembly/current senator Bob Hertzberg, and others. Opposing the

reforms were many elected officials in the two major parties. While the battle to pass these political

reforms was fierce, we are only now able to assess if and how the reforms may have changed the state’s

legislative politics.

Have these electoral reforms made a difference in California and do they have the potential to

reduce ideological extremity among legislators across the nation? Has legislative polarization in

California been reduced following the implementation of the nonpartisan redistricting commission and the

top-two primary? By comparing the behavior of California legislators before and after the reforms (in

2011 when legislators serving were elected under the old system; and in 2013-14 when legislators served

after the reforms were adopted), we can assess whether legislators have become more moderate pre- and

post-reform.

Previous work (Grose 2014) preliminarily suggested that the California legislature was more

moderate post-reform than pre-reform, though that research was based only on the year immediately

following the reforms. In contrast, other preliminary work suggested the reforms were not yet effective at

reducing ideological extremity (McGhee 2014). Other work on the effect of primaries or redistricting on

candidate, voter, or legislator behavior has been mixed, finding some marginal effects of the reforms

(Alvarez and Sinclair 2012; Alvarez and Sinclair 2015; Sinclair 2013), while others have suggested there

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is less of a link between similar reforms and polarization (e.g. Masket, Winburn, and Wright 2012;

McCarty, Poole, and Rosenthal 2009). All of this work has not considered 2014, and in this policy report

I examine the effect of the political reforms on candidate and legislator behavior in 2014.

I examine ideological extremity in the California legislature in 2013 and 2014 (the period post-

implementation of these electoral reforms) and compare it to ideological extremity in the California

legislature in 2011 (prior to the electoral reform implementation). This work updates Grose (2014), where

I examined roll-call voting in the California legislature in only 2011 and 2013. Like that previous work,

the findings suggest that state legislators in California are more moderate and less ideologically polarized

in both 2013 and 2014 (post-reform) than they were in 2011 prior to the implementation of the

redistricting and top-two primary reforms. The California Assembly had a 34% reduction in ideological

extremity between 2011 and 2014, and the California Senate had a 31% reduction in ideological extremity

between 2011 and 2014. In both the Assembly and the Senate, the moderation appears to be greatest

among Democratic legislators.

Public Policy Advocates: Reforms Are Intended to Reduce Legislative Ideological Extremity

Opponents of the closed primary system argue that – in the absence of competitive general

elections – closed primary systems elect more polarized, ideologically extreme representatives and thus

increase gridlock.1 This occurs, they allege, because candidates win closed primaries by appealing to core

partisan voters – and the primary winner is often the de facto winner of a legislative seat in many

constituencies. Advocates argue that given these changed electoral dynamics, once legislators are elected

they will also be more moderate than those legislators elected under closed primary systems. Policy

advocates claim that polarization in legislatures between parties and legislator extremity may be reduced

by top-two primaries.

Similarly, policy advocates of nonpartisan redistricting commissions have also argued that

candidates will change their behavior when they are elected in districts that are more competitive because

1 Greg Giroux, “Would a ‘Top-2’ Primary Election Help Reduce Gridlock? Bloomberg. 13 December 2014.

<https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2014-12-13/would-a-top2-primary-election-help-reduce-gridlock>

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they are drawn by a commission instead of incumbent legislators. Advocates of nonpartisan redistricting

reform argue that when incumbent legislators cannot draw their own district lines, it makes it more

difficult for the incumbents to retain districts that protect their reelection campaigns. If nonpartisan

redistricting commissions do not consider incumbent or partisan protection in their decisions in redrawing

lines, many advocates of redistricting reform argue that the result will be candidates more willing to

compete for votes across party lines and legislators who are elected who support less extreme policies.

Academic Research on Political Reforms

What does political science say about the claims of advocates and critics of primary and

redistricting reform in regards to candidate strategies under different primary systems? Theoretically,

significant changes to electoral systems should affect candidate behavior. Candidates running in more

competitive districts due to redistricting or candidates running in top-two primaries instead of closed

primaries should theoretically change their behavior due to the changes to the electoral system. This

candidate behavior may translate to changes among legislators.

The empirical work on the top-two primary has shown some changes in legislator and elite

behavior, while other work has found a mixed impact of the reform on voting behavior. Grose (2014)

found that the political reforms were associated with more moderate California state legislators in 2013

compared to 2011. McGhee and Shor (2015) similarly found changes to legislative ideology post-reform

in California. In contrast, McGhee et al. (2014) find little difference in legislator ideology when new

primaries are adopted. However, they find some evidence of moderation under California’s previous

reform, the blanket primary. Alvarez and Sinclair (2012) and Bullock and Clinton (2011) find some

modest changes to legislator behavior following the blanket primary as well. Mostly examining voter

behavior, Alvarez and Sinclair (2015) find that the top-two primary had some effects, though not always

exactly as anticipated. Hill and Kousser (2016) find that independent voters are more likely to participate

in the top-two primary in California when told they can participate.

On the ability for redistricting reform to lead to change in candidate or legislative behavior, the

political science research is tempered in terms of its predictions of effects. The conventional wisdom is

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that the type of redistricting can affect electoral competitiveness (Carson, Crespin, and Williamson 2014;

Peterson 2016; Yoshinaka and Murphy 2011), but the relationship between redistricting and legislator

extremity is not clear in existing work in political science (e.g., Masket, Winburn, and Wright 2012;

McCarty, Poole, and Rosenthal 2009). In this policy report, I seek to examine this puzzle between policy

advocates – who expect the electoral reforms to change elite behavior – and the more muted findings in

the extant academic research in political science and public policy.

Analysis: California’s Legislature was More Moderate after the Political Reforms

I examine whether legislator behavior was changed in California during the period of the political

reforms. Was the implementation of the top-two primary and nonpartisan redistricting commission

associated with changes in legislator behavior in the California legislature? Is legislator ideological

extremity and polarization reduced in the period post-reform when compared to the pre-reform era?

I examine legislator voting in the California Assembly and the California Senate both pre-reform

and post-reform. I estimate legislator ideology measures based on all roll calls taken in 2011 before any

political reforms had been implemented (prior to the August 2011 announcement of the California

Citizens’ Redistricting Commission district maps and the implementation of the top-two primary in the

2012 election).2 I also estimate comparable legislator ideology measures based on all roll calls taken in

2013 and 2014.3 The legislator ideology measures use every roll call cast during these periods to

determine how liberal or conservative each legislator is. These ideology scores can also be used to

estimate extremity for legislators in California and political polarization between the two parties.

The legislator ideology measures are estimated using an algorithm called NOMINATE (Poole et

al. 2011). This and similar methods of estimation have been used to scale the ideology of the U.S.

Congress, U.S. state legislatures, and legislatures outside of the U.S. (e.g., Bertelli and Grose 2011; Grose

2 Roll-call data is from Jeff Lewis <http://amypond.sscnet.ucla.edu/california/>.

3 I estimate legislator ideology before the June 2014 primary in 2013-14; and after the June 2014 primary to assess

whether legislator voting behavior changes in the primary and the general election under the new top-two system. In

this report, I do not examine legislator ideology after the 2011 maps were released or in 2012 as the predictions of

ideology are inconclusive in this period – the reforms were not yet implemented and many members were retiring –

yet the new redistricting map had been announced.

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2011; Lo 2013; Masket, Winburn, and Wright 2012). Writing in the Washington Post, Hare, Poole, and

Rosenthal (2014) explain that NOMINATE scores “measure legislators’ liberal-conservative positions

using their roll call voting records.” In addition, the NOMINATE algorithm and its estimates of legislator

ideologies have been covered in the popular press when assessing the extent of political polarization in

the U.S. (e.g., Haidt and Hetherington 2012; Hill and Tausanovitch 2015; Kurtzleben 2015). For more

information, please visit Keith Poole’s web site (https://voteviewblog.wordpress.com/).

I apply the NOMINATE algorithm to all roll calls and legislators in the California Legislature in

the periods discussed above. Within each legislative chamber, these ideology estimates are comparable

over time. A legislator serving in 2011 can be compared to herself in 2013 and in 2014 to see if she

moderated or became more extreme following the reforms. This legislator’s ideology can also be

compared to other legislators, thus allowing for an analysis of overall ideological change toward

moderation or extremism over time in the entire legislature.4 The ideological scale ranges from -1 to +1

with -1 being the most liberal point on the scale, and +1 being the most conservative. Moderate legislators

are located closer to zero than to the extreme values of -1 or +1. I then measure legislator ideological

extremity as the absolute value of this NOMINATE scale. When examining the absolute value, the

ideological extremity scale now ranges from 0 to 1 with scores near 0 being moderate and scores near 1

being extreme.

Results: California Legislators are Less Extreme following the Primary and Redistricting Reforms

Legislative voting in California is, on average, less extreme in 2013 and 2014 following the

enactment of the top-two primary and redistricting reforms. Figure 1 displays the change in legislative

voting in the California Assembly over three periods: (1) before the redistricting maps were announced

and before the first top-two primary was held (in 2011); (2) the period after the new members were first

elected under the new primary system and redistricting map (2013 through June 2014); and (3) the period

4 To make the scales comparable over time, I made identification assumptions, including constraining some

ideologically consistent legislators over time. I used the wnominate program in R to conduct the estimation, and I

present the first-dimension ideological estimates in this report. Please contact the author for more details. I estimated

the ideologies of legislators in each chamber separately. Thus, while legislators within each chamber are comparable

to one another over time, they are not comparable across chambers.

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after the second top-two primary was completed (the rest of 2014). The 2013-14 period is the time

legislators elected under the top-two primary and in districts drawn by the nonpartisan redistricting

commission. All Assembly members ran in 2012 under the new system, and one-half of the California

senate was up for election in 2012 under the new system.5

Figure 1: Mean legislator ideological extremity, California Assembly

Lower values of y-axis = lower ideological extremity

Figure 1 shows the mean absolute value of the legislator ideology scores for the California

Assembly for the three periods – the first period is pre-reform and the following two periods are post-

reform in 2013 and 2014. The most extreme possible legislator score is at 1.0, and the most moderate

legislator score is near 0.0. In the Assembly, the mean legislator extremity score prior to the reforms was

over 0.7. Clearly, the average Assembly member was very extreme in 2011 before the reforms were

implemented. In the post-reform period, Assembly members moderated. The mean legislator extremity

score was 0.53 during 2013-14 before the legislators faced the June 2014 primary. Following the June

2014 primary, in the third time period displayed in the x-axis in Figure 1, Assembly members in

5 In this report, I do not present the 2012 period in the figures as the predictions for legislator behavior are unclear –

legislators may moderate in anticipation of the changed redistricting maps and the new primary system or they may

not change behavior until the legislative session after the reforms were fully implemented (following the 2012

election).

0.2

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0.4

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0.8

0.9

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2011 Pre-reform: Beforeredistricting map announced

Jan. 2013 - June 2014Post-reform

2014 Post-reform: Before2014 general election

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California moderated slightly again. The mean legislator extremity measure at the end of 2014 was 0.48.

Comparing the extremity measure in 2011 and comparing it to the extremity measure in 2014, this is a 34

percent reduction in ideological extremity in the Assembly pre- and post-reform.

Figure 2: Mean legislator ideological extremity, California Senate


A similar pattern is also observed in the California Senate. In 2013 and 2014, after the political

reforms were implemented, the average senator was less ideologically extreme than the average senator in

the 2011 period prior to the announcement of the redistricting maps and the implementation of the top-

two primary. Figure 2 shows that the average senator in 2011, pre-reform, had an ideological extremity

score of 0.51. In the period immediately after the reforms (in 2013-14 after the 2012 elections with the

new maps and the new primary system used by half of the senators elected through staggered terms), the

average ideological extremity score was 0.48. This was nearly the same as in the pre-reform period,

suggesting the Senate did not immediately shift dramatically in the post-reform era. However, in the last

period displayed in Figure 2 (following the June 2014 primary – meaning that all California senators had

actually run in a primary in the top-two system either in 2012 or 2014), the average California senator’s

roll-call ideological extremity had declined. It was only 0.35 in the last part of 2014. Recall that the most

moderate value on this scale would be 0, and the most extreme would be 1. Thus, the results suggest that

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0.9

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the average senator is fairly moderate in 2014. Further, from early 2011 to late 2014, the average

California senator had a decrease in ideological extremity of 31%.

The results show that the California Legislature has moderated in 2013 and 2014 following the

election of legislators via the top-two primary in districts drawn by the nonpartisan redistricting

commission. The changes in the Assembly have been particularly stark, with significant declines in

average ideological extremity. In the Senate, there was not initially a major change in ideological

extremity between the pre-reform and post-reform legislative periods. However, following the 2014 June

primary, the second time in which the top-two primary had been used, the California Senate also

witnessed a reduction in ideological extremity.

Results: Post-reform Legislative Moderation Is Most Pronounced Among Democrats

In addition to looking at average legislator ideological extremity scores in the entire Assembly

and Senate, I also estimated these scores for the political parties. This allows us to see if partisan

polarization and extremity between the parties has declined. Figure 3 shows the mean ideological

extremity score for Democratic Assembly members and the Republican Assembly members separately.

The moderation seen in the California Assembly occurs entirely due to the Democratic Assembly

members.

In 2011 prior to the implementation of reforms, the average Democratic Assembly member was

at 0.76, a very extreme score on the 0-to-1 point extremity scale. Immediately after the first election held

under the new redistricting map and top-two primary, the average Democratic Assembly member in

2013-14 dropped to 0.46 on the ideological extremity scale. Then, in late 2014 after the June 2014 top-

two primary, the average Democratic Assembly member extremity had dropped to 0.39. This is a

whopping 37 percent decrease in ideological extremity among Democratic Assembly members from 2011

to the end of 2014.

The Republicans in the Assembly, though, did not moderate. As can be seen in Figure 3, during

the pre-reform 2011 period through the 2013-14 post-reform periods the mean Republican Assembly

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member ideological extremity score changed very little. Nevertheless, because of the reduction in

Democratic Assembly member ideological extremity, polarization between the parties was reduced.

Figure 3: Results Separated by Party, Mean legislator ideological extremity, California Assembly


Figure 4: Results Separated by Party, Mean legislator ideological extremity, California Senate


0

0.1

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Democrats Republicans

0

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Democrats Republicans

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Figure 4 shows the average ideological extremity for Democratic senators and Republican

senators. Democratic senators have moderated in both periods following the implementation of the

reforms. The average extremity score for Democratic senators in 2011 was 0.54. In the post-reform

period in 2013-14 prior to the 2014 primary, the Democratic senator ideological extremity score average

had fallen to 0.41; and in the second post-reform period in 2014 after the June 2014 primary, the

Democratic senator average had fallen even further to 0.37. The trend among Democrats, both in the

Assembly and Senate, is toward ideological moderation in the periods following the implementation of

the political reforms. Among Democratic elected officials in the California Legislature, the anticipated

moderation that advocates of these political reforms expected appears to be occurring.

Interestingly, Republican senators do not show a consistent decrease in ideological extremity.

Immediately after the reforms, Republican senators actually became more conservative, going from 0.48

to 0.63. Of course, state senators in California face staggered terms with only half of the membership

having been elected or re-elected after 2012, and the other half potentially facing reelection in 2014. In

the latter part of 2014, as shown in Figure 4, once every senator had faced a primary election under the

top-two system (the period after June 2014), legislative voting among Republican senators moderated to

0.30. By the end of 2014, both Democratic and Republican senators exhibited more moderate roll-call

voting than did senators in both parties in the pre-reform period in 2011. This suggests that – when

comparing 2011 to 2014 – polarization between the two parties in the California Senate declined.

However, this polarization decline was not evident in the earlier period of the 2013-14 Senate session.

Conclusion: Reforms Are Associated with Candidate Bipartisanship and Legislator Moderation

California’s political reform earthquake – which included the new districts drawn by the

nonpartisan redistricting commission and the first use of the top-two primary in 2012 – was significant to

the state. Reformers argued that one or both of these electoral reforms would lead to a change in the

state’s political polarization among its candidates and legislators.

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The political reforms are associated with changes in legislator behavior. California state

legislators are more moderate in 2014 (post-redistricting and top-two primary reform) than they were in

2011 (pre-reform). Advocates had anticipated that these electoral reforms might remake legislative

politics. It is still too early to know if the changes in legislator voting will be long lasting, but legislators

in both the Assembly and Senate are more moderate after the implementation of these reforms and

ideological extremity has been reduced. The reduction in political polarization between the two parties in

the California Legislature has occurred mostly due to the moderation among Democratic legislators in the

post-reform period.

While promising to reformers seeking to reduce ideological and partisan polarization, the

analyses have their limitations. With these legislative analyses in particular, it is difficult to tease out a

causal effect of electoral reforms on California with these data. The redistricting commission and the top-

two primary were two reforms introduced at the same time, so it is difficult to distinguish which of these

reforms had a greater effect. In addition to these two reforms, other changes have occurred over the same

period: the removal of the Legislature’s supermajority vote requirement for budget measures, external

political factors such as increases in independent expenditures in legislative races, and demographic and

partisan changes among the states’ voters.

Future research is needed to examine the effect of these political reforms on the politics of the

Golden State and the country. Research should examine whether members of Congress changed their

behavior after the reforms when compared to other members of Congress who did not reside in states with

significant reforms. Other work should examine the flow of campaign contributions to candidates. Have

candidates in the post-reform period been able to successfully raise funds from individuals and groups

across the ideological spectrum? Has campaign funding changed under the new system? What role do

interest groups and their endorsements play – especially in same-party Democratic versus Democratic or

Republican versus Republican contests – in the new post-reform campaign and electoral environment?

Many new questions are raised by this research, but we can conclude that candidate behavior is more

bipartisan in top-two systems and legislators have moderated following the political reforms.

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