retail advice - amazon s3

Retail Advice Hutt Street, O’Connell Street and Melbourne Street Main Streets Analysis

Main Street Analysis

For:

Adelaide City Council

January 2013

Retail Advice: Main Street Analysis -

Disclaimer

The material contained in this report was provided by Jones Lang LaSalle to the party to whom it is addressed strictly for the specific purpose to which it refers and no responsibility is accepted to any third party.

Neither Jones Lang LaSalle nor any of its associates have any other interests (whether pecuniary or not and whether direct or indirect) or any association or relationships with any of its associates that might reasonably be expected to be or have been capable of influencing Jones Lang LaSalle in providing this report.

Whilst the material contained in the report has been prepared in good faith and with due care by Jones Lang LaSalle, no representations or warranties are made (express or implied) as to the accuracy of the whole or any part of the report.

Jones Lang LaSalle, its officers, employees, subcontractors and agents shall not be liable (except to the extent that liability under statute or by operation of law cannot be excluded) for any loss, liability, damages or expense suffered by any party resulting from their use of this report.

If a projection has been made in respect of future demand, business trends, property prices, rentals and projected take up rates, such a projection is an estimate only and represents only one possible result therefore should at best be regarded as an indicative assessment of possibilities rather than absolute certainties. The process of making forward projections of such key elements involves assumptions about a considerable number of variables that are acutely sensitive to changing conditions and variations, and any one of which may significantly affect the resulting projections. This must be kept in mind whenever such projections are considered.


Table of Contents

Executive Summary 1

1 Introduction 6

1.1 Main Street Zone Objectives: Adelaide (City) Development Plan 6

2 Main Street (Hutt) Zone 7

2.1 Overview 7

2.2 Retail Mix 8

2.3 Hutt Street Primary Catchment 10

2.4 Demographic Analysis 10

2.5 Population Forecasts 12

2.6 Hutt Street Spending and Floor Area Analysis 13

2.7 Conclusions / Recommendations 15

3 Main Street (O’Connell) Zone 16

3.1 Overview 16

3.2 Retail Mix 16

3.3 Primary Catchment 18



3.6 O‟Connell Street Spending and Floor Area Analysis 21


4 Main Street (Melbourne East) Zone 24

4.1 Overview 24

4.2 Retail Mix 25

4.3 Primary Catchment 26



4.6 Melbourne Street Spending and Floor Area Analysis 29


5 Main Street (Melbourne West) Zone 32

6 Policy Interventions 33

6.1 Public Sector Interventions (Planning Policy) 33

6.2 Other Public Sector Interventions (Non-Planning Policy) 36

7 Appendices 40

8 Bibliography / Further Reading 43


List of Tables

Table 1: Hutt Street Retail Floor Area Analysis .............................................................................. 9

Table 2: Demographic Analysis - Hutt Street Local Catchment ................................................... 11

Table 3: Forecast Population Growth - Hutt Street Local Catchment .......................................... 12

Table 4: Floor Area and Spending Analysis - Hutt Street Main Street ......................................... 14

Table 5: O‟Connell Street Retail Floor Area Analysis................................................................... 17

Table 6: Demographic Analysis – O‟Connell Street Local Catchment ......................................... 20

Table 7: Forecast Population Growth – O‟Connell Street Local Catchment ................................ 21

Table 8: Floor Area and Spending Analysis – O‟Connell Street Main Street ............................... 22

Table 9: Melbourne Street Retail Floor Area Analysis ................................................................. 25

Table 10: Demographic Analysis – Melbourne Street Local Catchment ...................................... 28

Table 11: Forecast Population Growth – Melbourne Street Local Catchment ............................. 29

Table 12: Floor Area and Spending Analysis – Melbourne Street Main Street ............................ 30

Table 13: Selected Supermarket Floor Areas, Adelaide and Near Adelaide ............................... 41

Table 14: Population Forecasts by Adelaide Precinct .................................................................. 41

Table 15: Selected Main Street Retail Environments, 2007 ......................................................... 42

List of Figures

Figure 1: Hutt Street Main Street Primary Catchment .................................................................. 10

Figure 2: O‟Connell Street Main Street Primary Catchment ........................................................ 18

Figure 3: Melbourne Street Main Street Primary Catchment ....................................................... 26

Retail Advice: Main Street Analysis - Page 1

Executive Summary

Main Street (Hutt) Zone

Hutt Street is the focus of neighbourhood shopping, leisure and community facilities for the City‟s south-eastern residential area.

It is well known as one of Adelaide‟s popular „eat streets‟, and cafes and restaurants are the major land use in the Main Street (Hutt) zone.

Residents in the primary catchment number approximately 3,850 (2011 estimate) and are characterised as follows:

Very high income levels (31.1% above the metropolitan Adelaide average);

A large Asian born population (14.7% of residents);

Few children (children 14 and under account for 5.8% of the population compared with an average of 17.7% across metropolitan Adelaide);

Very high proportion of 20-34 year old residents (37.2%) compared with metropolitan Adelaide (20.5%)

The majority of households are rental accommodation;

Lone person household account for 42% of all households;

A high proportion of medium and higher density dwellings – separate houses only account for 11.6% of all dwellings.

Hutt Street meets most of the local day to day shopping needs of residents, although there are some gaps identified. These include a butcher and bakery, while the size of the two local IGA stores is quite small (less than 500sqm each) with limited offer.

Hutt Street does not provide for all weekly shopping needs, with local residents likely to shop elsewhere on a regular basis to meet their weekly shopping needs.

Opportunities for large scale redevelopment within the Main Street (Hutt) Zone are limited due to a range of constraints, including limited available sites, heritage / character considerations, land fragmentation, the relatively shallow depth of allotments and interface issues with residential development.

We do not consider that local shops are being denied access to Hutt Street through either lack of opportunity or price pressures from competing land uses. There are a reasonable number of vacant tenancies, which provide opportunities for new aspiring retailers and asking rents for well-located ground floor tenancies are reasonably affordable.

Looking Forward

Current forecasts suggest modest population growth in the catchment, averaging 1.6% per annum. By 2031, this would increase the catchment by nearly 1,500 residents to 5,850, a 38.4% increase in 20 years from 2011. „Catalyst sites‟ together with the few opportunities for larger scale development are likely to be important in reaching this forecast.

Our forecasts suggest around 3,300 square metres of additional retail floor space may be supportable by 2031. This may include a larger supermarket and additional retailers to meet the daily and weekly needs of residents.

The Main Street (Hutt) Zone has limited development sites for expansion within its boundary. Given the existing vacancies in Hutt Street together with marginal uses taking advantage of low cost rents, there are sufficient opportunities within the existing stock to accommodate demand at least over the next 5 years, and probably up to 10 years.

Beyond 2021, sites outside the zone may need to be considered to accommodate this growth.


Hutt Street frontages within the Capital City Zone provide some scope for expansion (the existing NAB and service station site, for example).

Some flexibility in terms of ground floor uses in adjoining zones may be needed to accommodate retail growth required to adequately cater for local needs in the future (Halifax Street, for example).

The two existing supermarkets on Hutt Street have a combined floor area estimated at approximately 720sqm. A larger supermarket offer (say 1,000sqm) will certainly be supportable well before 2031. This would increase spending in Hutt Street by local residents, reducing the leakage to alternative locations for weekly shopping needs (e.g. Norwood; Frewville).

While the emergence of new main streets in the Main Street (Adelaide) Zone (Sturt and Halifax Streets between the Squares) may be seen as competition to Hutt Street, we do not consider Hutt Street‟s role and function to provide a range of services to meet the day to day needs of local residents will be compromised. Potentially, nearby streets may complement Hutt Street and contribute to providing the local residents with better retail services to meet their needs.

Main Street (O’Connell) Zone

O‟Connell Street is the main focus for retailing; tourist accommodation; restaurants and cafés; and commercial, community and entertainment activities in North Adelaide and the surrounding suburbs. It is by far the largest of the Main Streets which are the subject of this report.

Key characteristics of the catchment are as follows:


A relatively large Asian born population (10.7% of residents) due to the location of university residential colleges within North Adelaide (Lincoln; Aquinas; St Marks, St Ann‟s);


A high proportion of 20-34 year old residents (28.8%) compared with metropolitan Adelaide (20.5%)

A slightly higher proportion of older residents aged 65 and over due primarily to the presence of the Helping Hand Centre (16.4% of the population compared with 15.5% for metropolitan Adelaide);

A strong rental market;

A high proportion of medium and higher density dwellings, accounting for 61.2% of all dwellings.

Based on the objectives of the Main Street (O‟Connell) Zone in the Adelaide (City) Development Plan, O‟Connell Street is clearly expected to have a “higher order” retail role than Melbourne Street East and Hutt Street. North Adelaide Village provides the main focus for local convenience retailing. The village is anchored by a Foodland supermarket and provides numerous food specialties that cater for the weekly shopping needs of North Adelaide residents.

Entertainment and dining are also significant activities within the Main Street (O‟Connell) Zone.

There are no obvious gaps in the retail mix in terms of the zone‟s role in providing retailing for North Adelaide residents. However, should O‟Connell Street fully serve a broader retail role for the surrounding suburbs, then more comparison shopping may be appropriate.


With a strong demographic profile, its central location and existing status as one of Adelaide‟s „eat streets‟, there should be scope for O‟Connell Street to develop another retail focus. The most likely opportunity to create this additional attractor to the street is the redevelopment of 88 O‟Connell Street (the former LeCornus site). Examples that would contribute to the overall retail mix include:

Quality end fashion retailing

Specialty food and wine

Health and Beauty

Leisure retailing

Looking Forward

Residential population in the O‟Connell Street catchment is forecast to increase by approximately 1,500 or 16% between 2011 and 2031.

Our forecasts suggest additional demand for 4,400 square metres of retail floor area by 2031. There is considerable vacancy in O‟Connell Street at present, suggesting that some of the forecast demand can be accommodated in existing tenancies.

Further demand for retail floor space may be supportable if a new retail offer is added to the market. This will have the effect of increasing the size of the primary catchment, increasing the likely spending per resident in the catchment, and increasing the likely destination appeal of O‟Connell Street. The redevelopment of 88 O‟Connell Street may lead to such a scenario.

Other major sites in O‟Connell Street have development potential. We do not consider that there is likely to be a shortage of opportunities in O‟Connell Street to meet future retail demand.

Main Street (Melbourne East) Zone

Melbourne Street East provides the focus for shopping, community uses and commercial activity for Lower North Adelaide.

The main strength of Melbourne Street East is its cafes and restaurants, which accounts for 40% of the retail floor area in the Zone. There is a reasonable concentration of clothing / fashion retailing, but this is less significant now than it historically was. There is no supermarket, although there are specialty food stores providing a limited range of gourmet produce as well as a delicatessen.

The residential catchment of Melbourne Street East is relatively small but affluent, while there is a sizable local workforce that also patronises the street.





Melbourne Street is a busy road with high traffic volumes at peak periods, particularly considering the street allows for only one lane of traffic in each direction. This has been considered a major negative issue by retailers in the past, as has the related issue of limited off-street parking provision.

The population of the catchment is forecast to increase between 2011 and 2031 from 1,830 to 2,340, or 28% in 20 years.


Looking Forward

Between 2011 and 2031, supportable demand for additional retail floor area is expected to increase by around 900 square metres.

The Main Street (Melbourne East) Zone should comfortably absorb this additional demand, through existing vacancies, changes of use to retail and small scale redevelopment opportunities.

We do not consider there are significant retail gaps in Melbourne Street given the relatively local small catchment, although the increased residential population may support a slightly larger grocery offering.

Melbourne Street is expected to compete with O‟Connell Street for higher order retail goods and specialty retailing such as upmarket fashion / homewares, and we consider the larger O‟Connell Street Main Street is more likely to attract a critical mass of such uses.

On balance, we consider that Melbourne Street has a unique appeal but is unlikely to attract strong retail demand or compete head-on with Adelaide‟s major main street destinations. Demand for retail floor space in the future is more likely to modest rather than strong.

Main Street (Melbourne West) Zone

Melbourne Street West‟s role and function is a mixed use area accommodating offices, consulting rooms and low to medium density dwellings. Retail shops and licensed premises are considered non-complying uses, although shops are possible on catalyst site redevelopments (sites of greater than 1,500 square metres.

Melbourne Street West has seen considerable commercial office and consulting room development over the past few years, suggesting a reasonable level of demand for the existing mix of commercial offices and medical consulting rooms. Given this healthy level of development activity, there appears little reason to change the role or function of the zone.

There may be a minor opportunity for small scale ancillary retail development as part of a large redevelopment. For example, a small convenience shop or coffee shop may provide an ancillary function to a large office / consulting room development on a catalyst site.

We certainly do not see a need to extend major retail activity into Melbourne Street West. Lower North Adelaide is well served by retail activity along Melbourne Street East and future demand can readily be catered for in the Main Street (Melbourne East) Zone. Furthermore, recent development activity suggests a reasonable level of demand for the existing mix of commercial offices and medical consulting rooms. Given this healthy level of development activity / re-investment, there appears little reason to change the role or function of the zone.

Consideration of Policy Interventions in Support of Local Shopping

We have identified a range of policy interventions that may be considered in order to encourage local shopping primarily aimed at meeting the everyday needs of local residents.

Planning policy interventions are not considered the most appropriate way to influence retail mix in a fine grain manner. Management groups, marketing and research may be more successful.

An appropriate retail mix that optimises retail trade is easier to engineer when a retail “precinct” is under central management and single ownership. Main streets such as Hutt Street are not in single ownership, but a coordinated approach via a management group such as the Rundle Mall Management Authority provides an opportunity to manage the zone utilising similar techniques to that of a centre manager.


Alternatively, traders group such as the existing Hutt Street Precinct Association may provide a collective voice for marketing the street. Council can support this function financially by either part funding the traders group or undertaking the research required to influence retail outcomes.

A key role for Council will continue to be ensuring the zone or Main Street is well maintained, that on-street parking spaces are readily available and managed to ensure frequent turnover of cars, and that marketing / promotional events (e.g. street markets, parties etc.) are actively supported.

In Hutt Street for example, we have noted that the existing population base is relatively small but future growth will support a wider variety of retailing. Hutt Street is then likely to attract more local retail shops, including a butcher, baker, gourmet shop, and a larger grocery store.

In order to support the Council‟s main street zones, we recommend Council consider a range of non-statutory policy interventions, aimed at:

Maintaining the street‟s convenient on-street parking;

Ongoing streetscape improvements to ensure a high level of customer comfort;

Promoting the Street;

Influencing retail mix via targeted marketing / research;

Supporting the local traders‟ association.

It is noted that Hutt Street, Melbourne Street East and O‟Connell Street all have a diverse mix of uses. For example, retail uses (including cafes and restaurants) in Hutt Street account for less than 50% of all non-residential floor area (DPTI; 2007 Retail Survey). Non-retail tenancies include banks, consulting rooms, travel agents, real estate agents, hotels, accountants and a range of other business and community services.

One of the appealing features of Adelaide‟s main streets is their relative diversity of land uses, which we consider is much greater than one would expect to have within a single ownership neighbourhood shopping centre for example. This retail mix has evolved over time and while each has a particular strength in cafes and restaurants, we do not consider this has been at the expense of other retail uses, such as retailers providing local retail services to nearby residents.


1 Introduction

Adelaide‟s Main Street Zones provide a range of important roles, servicing local residents, workers and visitors and providing a community focus for the local area. Their mix of land uses is diverse, incorporating retail, commercial and community land uses.

While one of the key objectives of Adelaide‟s main streets is to provide local shopping and facilities to serve the day to-day needs of the local community, all have developed additional roles, primarily as „eat streets‟ that draw customers from a much wider market.

All of the main streets are well served by public transport (buses).

The 30-Year Plan for Greater Adelaide aims to create a new urban form, including the creation of new transit oriented developments and placing a greater emphasis on creating unique, vibrant mixed use precincts. Adelaide‟s main streets already exhibit many of the features that are desired by the „new urban form‟, but there is an expectation that they can be further developed to reinforce their role, attractiveness and importance, both to their local population as well as the wider community.

Key to achieving the aims of the 30 Year Plan for Greater Adelaide is:

Ensuring that people do not have to drive to acquire their basic goods and services;

Increasing in the amount of residential accommodation;

Increasing the diversity of cultural and retail activities; and

Taking advantage of upgraded transport, including the tram.

This advice focuses on the following:

The role and function of Adelaide‟s four Main Street Zones;

Trends in the retail mix in each zone, including retail gaps;

Future retail demand, having regard to potential population growth;

Public sector interventions that may be considered to encourage local shopping facilities that serve the day to day needs of residents.

1.1 Main Street Zone Objectives: Adelaide (City) Development Plan

As per the city wide objectives under the Development Plan, the objectives for Adelaide‟s main streets include the following:

Main Streets with a retail, community and commercial function

Providing a local focus for surrounding residential communities

Accommodating a range of visitor facilities and commercial activity, due to their centrality and high volumes of passing traffic

An increased component of residential accommodation

Enhanced vitality and character

Local shopping and facilities to serve day to-day needs of the local community

The objectives are quite diverse, which in part is due to Adelaide‟s main streets being centrally located. There is clearly a desire for the main streets to serve more than just the local community, with an expectation that the main streets take on a broader commercial and visitor function by virtue of their central location and relatively high levels of passing traffic.

Residential uses are expected to become a more significant use within Adelaide‟s main streets.

There is also a clear objective to ensure that a more intensive, vibrant main street does not compromise the amenity of surrounding residential areas – a balance is required between enhanced vitality, intensification of commercial uses and quality of life for existing and future residents.


2 Main Street (Hutt) Zone

2.1 Overview

The role and function of Hutt Street is described below:

Focus of neighbourhood shopping, leisure and community facilities for the City‟s south-eastern residential area

A range of land uses to contribute to both local employment opportunities and services / shopping facilities

Shopping and services meeting the local community needs

Uses that do not adversely affect the amenity of adjoining residential areas

Low to medium scaled buildings

We consider that clearly, the primary role of Hutt Street as highlighted in the Development Plan is to provide a focus for, and meet, the daily needs of the local community, which is described as the south eastern residential area. However, most of the existing services would rely heavily on patronage from outside the local area.

This location also provides a reasonable level of employment, so the local community includes local workers.

Hutt Street‟s central location means that it serves a wider function – it is readily accessible to a large CBD workforce. Hutt Street carries a relatively high volume of traffic, averaging between 19,500 and 21,000 vehicles per day. This level of passing vehicles provides good potential for passing trade.

The limited off street parking is an issue for land uses that generate significant traffic volumes, with a reliance on the existing on-street parking provision.

The main retail function for nearby residents tends to be for local day to day convenience rather than the main destination for weekly shopping. This is in part due to the lack of a supermarket providing a comprehensive range of products with convenient parking, which means that many residents are likely to access other nearby shopping precincts on a regular basis (e.g. Unley Road, The Parade, Central Market).

While a larger supermarket may be seen as an obvious gap in the retail mix of Hutt Street, we note that the local population is not large enough on its own to support a medium sized supermarket of say 2,000 square metres. As a comparison, Foodland at O‟Connell Street is 1,992sqm and Coles at Central Market is 3,433sqm. The two IGA supermarkets in Hutt Street are estimated to be less than 400sqm each.

1

Hutt Street‟s key strength is its cafes and restaurants (49.7% of retail floor area), which serve a much wider regional role than just serving its local residential community.

We note that only 47% of the Hutt Street floor area surveyed in 2007 for the Retail Database was used for retail purposes. Hutt Street is also a popular location for a range of small business services and community services, many of which do not appear to rely heavily on the local community for viability.

1 Property Council of Australia, Australian Shopping Centre Database March 2012; Planning SA

, Retail Database 2007


2.2 Retail Mix

We have analysed the land use mix in Hutt Street as at 1999, 2007 and 2011 to ascertain the changes to retail mix over that time (refer to Table 1). While the retail mix has changed, the area devoted to retail has been reasonably constant. Key changes that have occurred include:

The introduction of two small supermarkets, which were not present in the 1999 Survey

A modest increase in fashion retailing

A decline in stationary supplies retailing, although the local newsagency is still in Hutt Street

An increase in cafes and restaurants

It is noted that there hasn‟t been a local butcher or bakery in Hutt Street since 1999, although the retailer Queen of Tarts, is a long established shop that provides specialty items similar to some bakeries. Other key points relating to convenience retailing and services in Hutt Street are provided below:

Most of the specialty food retailing in Hutt Street is take away food;

While there has previously been a green grocer, this was prior to either of the IGA grocery stores opening in Hutt Street;

The arrival of a small supermarket offering provides increased local convenience retailing for residents and workers of the south east corner;

Key convenience retailers and services present in Hutt Street include: o Two small IGA supermarkets o Newsagent o Chemist o Take-away food o Hairdressers / beauty salons o Laundromat / dry cleaning o Liquor retailing


Table 1: Hutt Street Retail Floor Area Analysis

Category 1999 2007 2011

Supermarkets - 722 722

Specialty Food Retailing 502 576 429

Clothing & Softgoods 36 137 225

Household Goods 188 118 140

Recreational Goods 731 168 95

Other Retailing 981 833 763

Cafes & Restaurants 1,974 2,182 3,208

Personal Services 974 1,174 868

Total 5,386 5,910 6,450

Percentages 1999 2007 2011

Supermarkets 0.0% 12.2% 11.2%

Specialty Food Retailing 9.3% 9.7% 6.7%

Clothing & Softgoods 0.7% 2.3% 3.5%

Household Goods 3.5% 2.0% 2.2%

Recreational Goods 13.6% 2.8% 1.5%

Other Retailing 18.2% 14.1% 11.8%

Cafes & Restaurants 36.7% 36.9% 49.7%

Personal Services 18.1% 19.9% 13.5%

Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research & Consulting Note: Retail analysis includes premises outside the Main Street (Hutt) Zone with Hutt Street frontage

Clearly, the level and range of specialty food retailing is a gap in the retail market (refer to Definitions in Appendix). Similarly the lack of a larger supermarket offering with a more comprehensive range of goods limits the role that Hutt Street plays in terms of retailing, with local residents likely to venture to other shopping destinations to fulfil their weekly shopping needs.

Some main streets have become victims of their own success, with customers identifying main streets as a destination for high end fashion or as a café and restaurant strip. Demand for limited retail space forces up rents and forces out local retailers. We do not consider this is happening in Hutt Street, nor is it expected to happen in the foreseeable future. There are a number of vacancies along Hutt Street (we identified 8 ground floor vacancies) and asking rents are relatively affordable ($265 -$310 per square metre per annum net of outgoings).

Everyday convenience stores such as a bakery and butcher have not been present in Hutt Street for over 10 years. We suggest that the main reason is that the relatively small size of the Hutt Street catchment means that such uses are considered marginal by retailers. Furthermore, butchers and bakeries tend to co-locate with supermarkets or other major food stores that act as a destination for local food shopping (e.g. Adelaide Fresh on Prospect Road has a butcher, chicken shop and bakery). Should Hutt Street attract a larger supermarket than it currently has, then the likelihood of attracting a butcher or bakery would be higher.


2.3 Hutt Street Primary Catchment

The primary retail catchment for a local retail precinct should be residents that are within a walkable distance of the precinct. Features such as the Park Lands, main roads and competing local retail precincts also determine the catchment. The map below identifies the primary catchment as being the residential area south of Wakefield Street and east of Pulteney Street, including the small area north of Wakefield Street between Hutt Street and East Terrace. These residents are all within 800m of the centre of Hutt Street‟s shopping (taken as the corner of Hutt and Halifax Street).

The catchment depicted below comprises eight statistical areas from the recent 2011 Census of Population and Housing. Characteristics of residents living in this catchment are provided.

Figure 1: Hutt Street Main Street Primary Catchment

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, PBBI MapInfo

2.4 Demographic Analysis

The following Table summarises the population and housing characteristics of the primary catchment for Hutt Street Main Street.



A large Asian born population (14.7% of residents);


Very high proportion of 20-34 year old residents (37.2%) compared with metropolitan Adelaide (20.5%)

The majority of households are rental accommodation;

Lone person household account for 42% of all households;

A high proportion of medium and higher density dwellings – separate houses only account for 11.6% of all dwellings.


Table 2: Demographic Analysis - Hutt Street Local Catchment

Selected Characteristic Hutt Street Local Catchment Benchmark to Greater Adelaide

Population 3,608 1,225,235

Age Distribution

0-4 years 2.5% 6.0%

5-14 years 3.3% 11.7%

15-19 years 3.4% 6.6%

20-24 years 13.3% 7.1%

25-34 years 23.9% 13.4%

35-44 years 13.9% 13.8%

45-54 years 12.6% 14.0%

55-64 years 14.4% 12.0%

65 years & over 12.6% 15.5%

Birthplace

Australia 63.7% 73.5%

UK 9.0% 8.7%

Europe 3.5% 5.2%

Asia 14.7% 6.6%

Other 9.1% 6.1%

Housing Status

Owner 23.6% 32.3%

Purchaser 19.5% 37.4%

Renter 54.7% 28.8%

Other 2.3% 1.5%

Dwelling Structure

Separate house 11.6% 77.2%

Semi-det, row/terrace, townhouse 45.6% 12.1%

Flat, unit, apt 42.6% 10.4%

Other dwelling 0.2% 0.3%

Family Composition

Couple - No Children 64.2% 38.7%

Couple - Dependant Children 12.9% 28.4%

Couple - Non-dependant Children 7.0% 14.2%

One Parent - Dependant Children 4.6% 8.6%

One Parent - Non-dependant Children 6.7% 8.3%

Other Family 4.6% 1.8%

Households

Family Households 45.0% 68.5%

Lone Person Households 41.8% 27.6%

Group Households 13.2% 3.9%

Income

Average Personal Income $49,059 $37,427

- Variation from benchmark 31.1%

Average Household Income $87,124 $72,489


Average Household Size 1.8 2.4

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Australian Bureau of Statistics

Note: Population is based on Usual Residents, which is lower than the Estimated Resident Population


In terms of the potential impact on retailing, we make the following comments:

High income levels suggest greater disposable income and supports the retail sector

The population includes a large proportion of renters and young adults – suggesting a more transient population than is typical across metropolitan Adelaide. This may affect loyalty to local retailers, with loyalty growing over time.

Young adults with high disposable incomes are expected to have different shopping habits – less price sensitive, gourmet items, less home cooking, more prepared meals / dining out, small but regular shoppers

There is also expected to be significant trade within the Hutt Street from workers, while the good selection of quality restaurants draws customers from a wide area.

The following analysis considers the potential demand for retail services in the future, taking into account the expected forecast population growth.

2.5 Population Forecasts

The table below provides forecast of population growth in the Hutt Street catchment, based on the existing published forecasts (from Council‟s website). Moderate population growth is anticipated, amounting to nearly 1,500 residents (or 38.4%) over the 20 year period 2011-2031. This equates to an additional 75 residents per annum, which is considerable in a location that is predominantly residential, has significant areas of historic character with limited development potential and is relying primarily on small scale urban infill development to grow its population base.

„Catalyst sites‟ together with the few opportunities for larger scale development (Southcotts; state government owned sites, land along South Terrace) are likely to be important in reaching this forecast.

Table 3: Forecast Population Growth - Hutt Street Local Catchment

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Existing Published Forecasts 3,850 4,150 4,530 4,930 5,330

2011-16 2016-21 2021-26 2026-31 2011-16

Percentage Change (per annum) 1.5% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6%

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, id Consulting

Working Population

As at the 2011 Land Use Survey, conducted by Adelaide City Council, there were 5,250 employees in the Hutt Street catchment. This includes the residential catchment depicted above as well as survey blocks on the western side of Hutt Street north of Wakefield Street. Both part-time and full-time employees are included. Major employment nodes include:

1,728 employees located above Wakefield Street (Wakefield Hospital; Channel 10; commercial offices; consulting / medical)

St. Andrews Hospital block (696 employees)

This is a significant potential market for retail services on Hutt Street. For example, should 3,000 of the above employees spend an average of $50 per week (primarily on food and beverage) for 50 weeks per year, then $7.5 million in retail turnover would be generated from the local workforce.


2.6 Hutt Street Spending and Floor Area Analysis

In this section, we consider the likely demand for additional retail floor area within Hutt Street, having regard for population growth within the catchment. For the purposes of this analysis, we have considered all of Hutt Street rather than just the Main Street (Hutt) Zone.

Table 4 summarises the expected demand for additional floor area using a market share analysis approach (see Methodology in Appendix).

A moderate population increase of 1,500 residents over a 20 year period of the existing population will create new demand for retail services and is expected to see some uses locate in Hutt Street that may not be currently viable. This includes a more diverse range of food retailing such as a butcher, bakery and gourmet delicatessen.

Our forecasts suggest additional demand for 3,300 square metres of retail floor area by 2031, or approximately a 55% increase on current occupied floor space. The key drivers of this increase is the expected increased residential population, although we have also assumed that Hutt Street will continue to attract a similar proportion of its trade from beyond its residential catchment.

Existing vacancies will be taken up as demand improves, while some non-retail uses may over time be changed to retail, but there will need to be additional retail space provided in Hutt Street or nearby to accommodate the expected future demand.

There is a lack of sites within the Main Street (Hutt) Zone for redevelopment, which suggests that future demand may be best accommodated in adjoining zones, including the Capital City Zone to the north. Another option is the ground floor level of premises on east-west streets such as Halifax Street.

There are many variables that may impact the future demand for retail floor space, including:

Changing market shares due to new competition

Changes to the local worker population

Forecast versus actual population growth – will the forecasts be achieved or exceeded?

Potential for creating a destination shopping precinct

On balance, Hutt Street has established itself as an important “eat street” within the City of Adelaide as well as the primary focus for local retail and community services, servicing the south east corner of the City. We do not see other precincts emerging that would threaten the viability of Hutt Street. Rather, the demand for retail space is expected to grow and alternative locations may be required to satisfy this demand and ensure that a growing residential population is adequately served.

The main gap in the retail market is a larger supermarket. A larger supermarket would reduce the need for residents to travel outside the Hutt Street local catchment for weekly shopping needs (i.e. reduce leakage). But this may not be possible or desirable in Hutt Street. There are limited sites that are large enough to accommodate a supermarket of even modest size (say 1,000 square metres) and such a facility would certainly generate much higher parking demand than the existing supermarkets on Hutt Street.


Table 4: Floor Area and Spending Analysis - Hutt Street Main Street

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Australian Bureau of Statistics, id consulting

Hutt Street Catchment 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Population Forecasts 3,850 4,150 4,530 4,930 5,330

2011-16 2016-21 2021-26 2026-31


Available Spending per capita ($)

- Supermarket / specialty food 5,208 5,339 5,474 5,612 5,754

- Cafes / Restaurants / Take-away 1,474 1,512 1,550 1,589 1,629

- Other Retail 6,728 6,898 7,072 7,250 7,434

- Total 13,410 13,749 14,096 14,452 14,817

Total Available Spending ($m)

- Supermarket / specialty food 20.050 22.158 24.798 27.669 30.669

- Cafes / Restaurants / Take-away 5.676 6.273 7.020 7.833 8.682

- Other Retail 25.902 28.626 32.036 35.745 39.621

- Total 51.629 57.057 63.854 71.247 78.973

Market Shares ($m) (% of Catchment Spend)

- Supermarket / specialty food 15% -20% 3.008 3.324 4.340 5.534 6.134

- Cafes / Restaurants / Take-away 50.0% 2.838 3.136 3.510 3.917 4.341

- Other Retail 10.0% 2.590 2.863 3.204 3.574 3.962

- Total 16.3% 8.436 9.323 11.053 13.025 14.437

Trade from Beyond Catchment ($m) (% beyond)

- Supermarket / specialty food 60% -50% 4.511 4.497 5.304 5.534 6.134


- Other Retail 75.0% 7.771 8.588 9.611 10.723 11.886

- Total 73.7% 23.634 25.630 28.955 31.923 35.385

Total ($m)



- Other Retail 10.361 11.450 12.814 14.298 15.848

- Total 32.070 34.953 40.009 44.948 49.822

Supportable Floor Space (sq.m) T/O Yields ($ per sq.m)

- Supermarket / specialty food $7,000 1,074 1,117 1,378 1,581 1,753

- Cafes / Restaurants / Take-away $5,000 2,838 3,136 3,510 3,917 4,341

- Other Retail $5,000 2,072 2,290 2,563 2,860 3,170

Total 5,984 6,544 7,451 8,357 9,263

Growth 559 1,466 2,373 3,279


2.7 Conclusions / Recommendations

There is expected to be moderate growth in demand for retail floor space in the Main Street (Hutt) Zone, generated by growth in the local residential catchment as well as the expected patronage coming from more workers and visitors attracted to an increasingly vibrant CBD.

The Main Street (Hutt) Zone has limited development sites for expansion within its boundary. Given the existing vacancies in Hutt Street together with marginal uses taking advantage of low cost rents, there are sufficient opportunities within the existing stock to accommodate demand at least over the next 5 years, and probably up to 10 years.

Beyond 2021, sites outside the zone may need to be considered to accommodate this growth.

Hutt Street frontages within the Capital City Zone provide some scope for expansion (the existing NAB and service station site).

Some flexibility in terms of ground floor uses in adjoining zones may be needed to accommodate retail growth in the future (Halifax Street, for example). While it is preferable for retailing to be concentrated along Hutt Street, where retailers benefit from locating next to complementary retailers, we consider it is equally important to ensure that adequate retailing is provided for the local community. This reduces the need for residents to travel outside the city to meet their daily needs.

The two existing supermarkets on Hutt Street have a combined floor area estimated at approximately 720sqm. A larger supermarket offer (say 1,000sqm) will certainly be supportable well before 2031. This would increase spending in Hutt Street by local residents, reducing the leakage to alternative locations for weekly shopping needs (e.g. Norwood; Frewville).

While the emergence of new main streets in the Main Street (Adelaide) Zone (Sturt and Halifax Streets between the Squares) may be seen as competition to Hutt Street, we do not consider Hutt Street‟s role and function to provide a range of services to meet the day to day needs of local residents will be compromised. Potentially, nearby streets may complement Hutt Street and contribute to providing the local residents with better retail services to meet their needs.


3 Main Street (O’Connell) Zone

3.1 Overview

The role and function of O‟Connell Street is described below:

Main focus for retailing; tourist accommodation; restaurants and cafés; and commercial, community and entertainment activities in North Adelaide and the surrounding suburbs

A range of land uses providing local employment opportunities, services and shopping facilities

A concentration of activity around North Adelaide Village

Medium to high scale residential development south of Tynte Street

O‟Connell Street is clearly expected to have a “higher order” role in terms of retailing and commercial activity than the main streets of Melbourne Street and Hutt Street. Its area of influence is expected to extend across all of North Adelaide and into surrounding suburbs. Surrounding suburbs that are easily accessible to O‟Connell Street include Brompton, Fitzroy, Thorngate, Medindie and Gilberton.

There is a strong community / social role for the broader O‟Connell Street precinct, which extends along Tynte Street to include the North Adelaide Library, post office and North Adelaide Primary School.

North Adelaide Village is the only integrated shopping centre in single ownership within the Main Street (O‟Connell) zone and provides a complementary mix of retail and services that appears to meet the weekly shopping needs on the North Adelaide community. Furthermore, it provides a range of cafes and restaurants that contribute to the destination appeal of O‟Connell Street for dining.

Entertainment is a significant activity in the Main Street (O‟Connell) zone. The Piccadilly Cinemas provide the only cinema complex in the inner northern suburbs while numerous hotels and bars provide evening and some late night entertainment. It is noted that while O‟Connell Street is the main focus for entertainment activities in North Adelaide and surrounding suburbs, it is considered a “secondary” land use within the zone.

There are no obvious gaps in the retail mix in terms of the zone‟s role in providing retailing for North Adelaide residents. The weekly needs are well catered for with a relatively large supermarket and a good mix of convenience goods retailing.

However, should O‟Connell Street fully serve a broader retail role for the surrounding suburbs, then more comparison shopping may be appropriate. Successful comparison shopping precincts require a relatively large, sub-regional catchment, or need to develop a cluster of complementary retailers that creates destination appeal (similar to King William Road and Burnside Village).

3.2 Retail Mix

We have analysed the retail mix in O‟Connell Street as at 1999, 2007 and 2011 to ascertain the changes to retail mix over that time. It should be noted that 2011 data is from a different source and floor areas as well as coding of land uses may not be completely consistent.

Total floor area for retail uses increased between 1999 and 2007, but has declined over the past four years. We note that there are a number of vacant tenancies in O‟Connell Street, and vacancies are not included in the analysis below (Table 5).


Key changes that have occurred include:

There appears to have been a decline in specialty food retailing. This may be the result of some retailers transitioning from a food retailer to one that incorporates a café or take-away element

Between 1999 and 2007 the floor area devoted to cafes, restaurants and take-away food retailing increased by over 1,000 square metres

Personal services have declined since 2007

A slight recovery in clothing / soft-goods retailing.

North Adelaide Village provides the main focus for local convenience retailing. The village is anchored by a Foodland supermarket and provides numerous food specialties that cater for the weekly shopping needs of North Adelaide residents, including a butcher, bakery, gourmet shop, organic foods and green grocer. Non-food convenience retailing is also well catered for.

O‟Connell Street is one of Adelaide‟s major „eat streets‟, with around 40 dining and take-away options.

Table 5: O’Connell Street Retail Floor Area Analysis

Categoy 1999 2007 2011

Supermarkets 2,458 2,680 2,116

Specialty Food Retailing 1,781 1,018 1,266

Clothing & Softgoods 928 555 858

Household Goods 669 1,557 965


Other Retailing 1,255 1,309 1,281


Personal Services 1,658 1,808 1,164

Total 15,922 17,836 16,071










Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research & Consulting

While dining is the dominant retail uses along O‟Connell Street, it does not appear to have been at the expense of a diverse mix of retail uses and services catering to the everyday and weekly needs of shoppers. O‟Connell Street is a relatively large main street and there are currently a number of vacant tenancies.

Compared to some of Adelaide‟s main streets, and given the size of O‟Connell Street, there should be scope for O‟Connell Street to develop another retail focus. Given the affluent demographic, a fashion focus may be appropriate. Critical mass is needed to create the destination appeal. The most likely opportunity to create this additional attractor to the street is the redevelopment of 88 O‟Connell Street (the former LeCornus site).


3.3 Primary Catchment

The map below identifies the primary catchment as being all of North Adelaide and residents in the suburbs to the north of the Park Lands. O‟Connell Street is expected to have a greater pull than Hutt Street, given it is a much larger retail market with an emphasis on convenience shopping meeting the weekly (rather than daily) needs of residents.

Most North Adelaide residents are within a 1.5km radius of O‟Connell Street‟s core shopping area around North Adelaide Village.

Figure 2: O’Connell Street Main Street Primary Catchment




The following Table summarises the population and housing characteristics of the primary catchment for O‟Connell Street Main Street.



A relatively large Asian born population (10.7% of residents) due to the location of university residential colleges within North Adelaide (Lincoln; Aquinas; St Marks, St Ann‟s);


A high proportion of 20-34 year old residents (28.8%) compared with metropolitan Adelaide (20.5%);

A slightly higher proportion of older residents aged 65 and over due primarily to the presence of the Helping Hand Centre (16.4% of the population compared with 15.5% for metropolitan Adelaide);

A strong rental market;

A high proportion of medium and higher density dwellings, accounting for 61.2% of all dwellings.


Table 6: Demographic Analysis – O’Connell Street Local Catchment

Selected Characteristic O'Connell Street Local Catchment Benchmark to Greater Adelaide

Population 9,350 1,225,235

Age Distribution

0-4 years 4.0% 6.0%

5-14 years 6.3% 11.7%

15-19 years 8.0% 6.6%

20-24 years 12.0% 7.1%

25-34 years 16.8% 13.4%

35-44 years 11.0% 13.8%

45-54 years 12.2% 14.0%

55-64 years 13.1% 12.0%

65 years & over 16.4% 15.5%

Birthplace


UK 6.8% 8.7%

Europe 5.3% 5.2%

Asia 10.7% 6.6%

Other 7.1% 6.1%

Housing Status

Owner 32.7% 32.3%


Renter 43.9% 28.8%

Other 0.7% 1.5%

Dwelling Structure





Family Composition







Households




Income










The table below provides forecast of population growth in the O‟Connell Street catchment, based on the existing published forecasts (from Council‟s website). Relatively low population growth is anticipated compared with the growth potential in the CBD.

Clearly the most significant opportunity will be 88 O‟Connell Street. The forecast population increase between 2011 and 2031 is approximately 1,500 or 16% of the existing population.

Table 7: Forecast Population Growth – O’Connell Street Local Catchment

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031


2011-16 2016-21 2021-26 2026-31



Working Population

As at the 2011 Land Use Survey, conducted by Adelaide City Council, there were 10,205 employees in North Adelaide, which equates to the O‟Connell Street catchment. Areas within the O‟Connell Street catchment in Medindie, Thorngate and Fitzroy have negligible employment. By far the most significant employer in the catchment is the Women‟s and Children‟s Hospital together with adjoining medical consulting rooms and the Memorial Hospital. North Adelaide Village retailers are also a significant employer.

Blocks fronting O‟Connell Street account for approximately 1,900 of the 10,205 local workers.

3.6 O’Connell Street Spending and Floor Area Analysis

In this section, we consider the likely demand for additional retail floor area within O‟Connell Street, having regard to population growth within the catchment as well as demand from beyond the catchment.

Table 8 summarises the expected demand for additional floor area using a market share analysis approach.

Population growth in the O‟Connell Street catchment is expected to be lower than Hutt Street, based on existing forecasts. Clearly the most significant opportunity will be 88 O‟Connell Street. The forecast population increase between 2011 and 2031 is approximately 1,500 or 16% of the existing population.

The redevelopment of Adelaide Oval is expected to have a positive impact on nearby cafes, restaurants and hotels, including those located in O‟Connell Street. We have not assumed this will have a significant impact on demand for retail floor space within the Main Street (O‟Connell) Zone. Increased trade from Adelaide Oval patrons may be countered by increased options at a redeveloped Riverfront Precinct.

Our forecasts suggest additional demand for 4,400 square metres of retail floor area by 2031. We note that there is considerable vacancy in O‟Connell Street at present, suggesting that some of the forecast demand can be accommodated in existing tenancies.

It should be noted that additional demand for retail floor space may be supportable if a new retail offer is added to the market. This will have the effect of increasing the size of the primary catchment, increasing the likely spending per resident in the catchment, and increasing the likely destination appeal of O‟Connell Street. The redevelopment of 88 O‟Connell Street, a site of approximately 7,500 square metres, may lead to such a scenario.


Other major sites in O‟Connell Street have development potential. We do not consider that there is likely to be a shortage of opportunities in O‟Connell Street to meet future retail demand.

Table 8: Floor Area and Spending Analysis – O’Connell Street Main Street



The O‟Connell Street catchment is forecast to grow by approximately 1,500 or 16% between 2011 and 2031, which will drive demand for additional retail floor space in the order of 4,400sqm. Cafes, restaurants and entertainment are well catered for and provide destination appeal, while there is a reasonably comprehensive retail offering to provide for the weekly needs of North Adelaide residents.

O'Connell Street Catchment 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031


2011-16 2016-21 2021-26 2026-31





- Other Retail 6,210 6,367 6,528 6,693 6,862

- Total 12,566 12,884 13,209 13,542 13,884




- Other Retail 60.985 65.327 69.392 73.553 77.950

- Total 123.401 132.186 140.411 148.832 157.727


- Supermarket / specialty food 35.0% 17.154 18.375 19.518 20.689 21.925


- Other Retail 15.0% 9.148 9.799 10.409 11.033 11.692

- Total 26.2% 32.334 34.636 36.791 38.997 41.328

Trade from Beyond Catchment ($m) (% beyond)



- Other Retail 60.0% 13.722 14.699 15.613 16.550 17.539

- Total 62.4% 53.623 57.441 61.015 64.674 68.540

Total ($m)



- Other Retail 22.870 24.498 26.022 27.583 29.231

- Total 85.957 92.076 97.806 103.671 109.868




- Other Retail $5,000 4,574 4,900 5,204 5,517 5,846

Total 15,885 17,015 18,074 19,158 20,303

Growth 1,131 2,190 3,274 4,419


Further demand for retail floor space beyond our forecasts may be supportable if a new retail offer is added to the market. This will have the effect of increasing the size of the primary catchment, increasing the likely spending per resident in the catchment, and increasing the likely destination appeal of O‟Connell Street. The redevelopment of 88 O‟Connell Street may lead to such a scenario.

Examples that would contribute to the overall retail mix include:

Quality end fashion retailing

Specialty food and wine

Health and Beauty

Leisure retailing

We do not consider that there is likely to be a shortage of opportunities in O‟Connell Street to meet future retail demand, with other large sites potentially being redeveloped.


4 Main Street (Melbourne East) Zone

4.1 Overview

The role and function of Melbourne Street East is described below:

The focus for shopping, community uses and commercial activity for Lower North Adelaide

A mix of shops, restaurants and cafes appropriate to a neighbourhood / specialty shopping street

Restrictions on further late night entertainment activities

While the focus is the provision of a range of land uses that serves Lower North Adelaide, there is also a recognition that Melbourne Street East may develop market niches of specialty shopping, which would likely serve a far wider area.

The main strength of Melbourne Street East is its cafes and restaurants, which account for 40% of retail floor space along the street.

There is a reasonable concentration of clothing / fashion retailing. Historically, Melbourne Street East was well known as a fashion strip. This has diminished, but remains an important segment of the retail mix. Virtually all the fashion retailers are unique to Melbourne Street (i.e. not chain retailers).

There is no supermarket – there are specialty food stores providing a limited range of gourmet produce as well as a delicatessen. The catchment of Melbourne Street East is relatively small (primary catchment being Lower North Adelaide, east of Brougham Place) and O‟Connell Street provides for weekly grocery shopping needs. However, there may be demand for a more extensive grocery offer, such as a small IGA.

Lower North Adelaide is a particularly affluent area, and Melbourne Street‟s retail mix reflects this. However, as stated above, it has lost its prominence as one of Adelaide main high fashion strips to shopping destinations such as Burnside Village, King William Road and Unley Road, while Rundle Street East has emerged more recently as a location for higher end fashion.

Melbourne Street is a busy road with high traffic volumes at peak periods, particularly considering the street allows for only one lane of traffic in each direction. This has been considered a major negative issue by retailers in the past, as has the related issue of limited off-street parking provision.


4.2 Retail Mix

We have analysed the retail mix in Melbourne Street as at 1999, 2007 and 2011 to ascertain the changes to retail mix over that time. It should be noted that 2011 data is from a different source and floor areas as well as coding of land uses may not be completely consistent.

Total floor area for retail uses increased marginally between 1999 and 2007, and has been relatively stable between 2007 and 2011.

The one key change that has occurred is a notable increase in clothing stores between 1999 and 2007. Fashion stores was once a strength of Melbourne Street, but declined considerably prior to 1999 with the growth in upmarket fashion precincts such as King William Road and Burnside Village.

There has also been an increase in specialty food retailing, courtesy of the Wild Thyme Organic Market and Café.

Again, cafes and restaurants is a real strength of Melbourne Street. In addition to nearly 3,000 square metres devoted to cafes, restaurants and take-away shops, there are two hotels that provide further dining opportunities.

Table 9: Melbourne Street Retail Floor Area Analysis

Category 1999 2007 2011

Supermarkets

250 196

Specialty Food Retailing 481 537 872

Clothing & Softgoods 423 1,070 868

Household Goods 267 135 388


Other Retailing 919 870 652


Personal Services 1,012 916 993

Total 6,628 7,027 6,886










Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Planning SA, Adelaide City Council

In terms of retail gaps, there isn‟t a significant supermarket /grocery store offering apart from a small K-Food Express and specialty gourmet store (Wild Thyme). It is noted, however, that the primary catchment is quite small, which limits demand.

Melbourne Street has previously attracted destination retailing, and while there is more scope for this to occur at O‟Connell Street in terms of redevelopment potential, Melbourne Street has an affluent demographic and charm that tends to attract clusters of upmarket specialty retailers.


In terms of non-food retail services to cater for the daily needs of local residents, Melbourne Street has the essentials – a post office, newsagent, chemist and numerous hair and beauty salons. There is no bank located in Melbourne Street with O‟Connell Street being the preferred North Adelaide location.

4.3 Primary Catchment

The map below identifies the primary catchment of the Main Street (Melbourne East) Zone as

being the Lower North Adelaide area to the east of Brougham Place and LeFevre Terrace. This

is a relatively small area surrounded by Park Lands.

While Melbourne Street attracts patrons from a much broader region to its cafes and restaurants

(as well as to its small collection of fashion retail shops), the primary catchment for local services

is considered to be quite small. This is primarily due to strong competition from O‟Connell Street.

Most residents are within a 400 metre radius of the corner of Melbourne Street and Jerningham

Street.

Figure 3: Melbourne Street Main Street Primary Catchment




The following Table summarises the population and housing characteristics of the primary

catchment for Melbourne Street East Main Street.



A relatively large Asian born population (12% of residents), many expected to reside at St Ann‟s College;



50% of the housing stock are rental dwellings;

A high proportion of medium and higher density dwellings, accounting for 72.3% of all dwellings;

Relatively high levels of group households and single person households.


Table 10: Demographic Analysis – Melbourne Street Local Catchment

Selected Characteristic Melbourne Street Local Catchment Benchmark to Greater Adelaide

Population 1,723 1,225,235

Age Distribution

0-4 years 2.8% 6.0%

5-14 years 3.4% 11.7%

15-19 years 7.4% 6.6%

20-24 years 14.7% 7.1%

25-34 years 22.2% 13.4%

35-44 years 9.8% 13.8%

45-54 years 10.9% 14.0%

55-64 years 14.8% 12.0%

65 years & over 14.1% 15.5%

Birthplace


UK 7.1% 8.7%

Europe 3.3% 5.2%

Asia 12.0% 6.6%

Other 8.4% 6.1%

Housing Status

Owner 31.1% 32.3%


Renter 50.3% 28.8%

Other 0.0% 1.5%

Dwelling Structure





Family Composition







Households




Income










The table below provides a forecast of population growth in the Melbourne Street catchment,

based on the existing published forecasts (from Council‟s website). The population of the

catchment is forecast to increase between 2011 and 2031 from 1,830 to 2,340, or 28% in 20

years.

Table 11: Forecast Population Growth – Melbourne Street Local Catchment

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031


2011-16 2016-21 2021-26 2026-31



Working Population

As at the 2011 Land Use Survey, conducted by Adelaide City Council, there were 2,058 employees in the Melbourne Street catchment and a further 4,400 employees in the nearby blocks that include the two hospitals (WCH and Memorial). Melbourne Street is expected to benefit significantly from its sizable workforce, particularly the local cafes and restaurants. Furthermore, the businesses located in Melbourne Street attract customers that further support the retail services in the street.

4.6 Melbourne Street Spending and Floor Area Analysis

In this section, we consider the likely demand for additional retail floor area within Melbourne

Street, having regard to population growth within the catchment.

Table 10 summarises the expected demand for additional floor area using a market share

analysis approach (see methodology in Appendix).

This together with a very modest increase in trade from workers and visitors will support an

expected increase in retail floor area of around 900 square metres.

The existing Main Street (Melbourne East) Zone should comfortably absorb this additional

demand, through existing vacancies, changes of use to retail and small scale redevelopment

opportunities.

We do not consider there are significant retail gaps in Melbourne Street, although the increased

residential population may support a slightly larger grocery offering. Melbourne Street is

expected to compete with O‟Connell Street for higher order retail goods and specialty retailing

such as upmarket fashion / homewares, and we consider the larger O‟Connell Street catchment

is more likely to attract a critical mass of such uses.

Clearly, Melbourne Street is highly dependent on attracting trade from beyond its local

catchment. Future population growth will have limited impact on retail demand and it is difficult

to forecast the vagaries of what main streets may become extremely fashionable and in high

demand. On balance, we consider that Melbourne Street has a unique appeal but is unlikely to

attract strong demand or compete head-on with Adelaide‟s major main street destinations.

Demand for retail floor space in the future is more likely to modest rather than strong.


Table 12: Floor Area and Spending Analysis – Melbourne Street Main Street



Melbourne Street East provides the focus for shopping, community uses and commercial activity for Lower North Adelaide. Its main strength is its cafes and restaurants, which accounts for 40% of the retail floor area in the Zone.

The population of the catchment is forecast to increase between 2011 and 2031 from 1,830 to 2,340, or 28% in 20 years. This will drive demand for additional retail floor area of approximately 900 square metres.

The Main Street (Melbourne East) Zone should comfortably absorb this additional demand, through existing vacancies, changes of use to retail and small scale redevelopment opportunities.

Melbourne Street Catchment 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031


2011-16 2016-21 2021-26 2026-31





- Other Retail 6,210 6,367 6,528 6,693 6,862

- Total 12,566 12,884 13,209 13,542 13,884




- Other Retail 11.365 12.480 13.643 14.791 16.057

- Total 22.996 25.252 27.607 29.929 32.490




- Other Retail 10.0% 1.136 1.248 1.364 1.479 1.606

Total 16.3% 3.756 4.124 4.508 4.888 5.306

Trade from Beyond Catchment ($m) (% beyond - 2011)



- Other Retail 92.5% 14.017 14.371 14.734 15.106 15.487

Total 89.8% 32.887 33.718 34.569 35.442 36.337

Total ($m)



- Other Retail 15.153 15.619 16.098 16.585 17.093

Total 36.643 37.842 39.078 40.330 41.643




- Other Retail $5,000 3,031 3,124 3,220 3,317 3,419

Total 6,894 7,117 7,347 7,580 7,824

Growth 223 453 686 930


We do not consider there are significant retail gaps in Melbourne Street given the relatively local small catchment, although the increased residential population may support a slightly larger grocery offering.

Melbourne Street is expected to compete with O‟Connell Street for higher order retail goods and specialty retailing such as upmarket fashion / homewares, and we consider the larger O‟Connell Street Main Street is more likely to attract a critical mass of such uses.

On balance, we consider that Melbourne Street has a unique appeal but is unlikely to attract strong retail demand or compete head-on with Adelaide‟s major main street destinations. Demand for retail floor space in the future is more likely to modest rather than strong.

Given the recent level of demand for commercial offices and consulting room uses in the Main Street (Melbourne West) Zone, it is likely that such uses may consider the Main Street (Melbourne East) Zone as an alternative location. It will be important that ground level uses east of Jerningham Street are predominantly maintained for active retail uses and „shop front‟ services that support the retail function, such as travel agents, real estate agents, banks etc.


5 Main Street (Melbourne West) Zone

The role and function of Melbourne Street West is described below:

A mixed use area, accommodating offices, consulting rooms and low to medium density dwellings

Retail shops and licensed premises are considered non-complying uses, although shops are possible on catalyst site redevelopments (sites of greater than 1,500 square metres).

Melbourne Street West has seen considerable development activity over the past few years. It is a popular location for consulting rooms given its proximity to North Adelaide hospitals and relatively central location, while a range of professional services offices have chosen to locate here. It is one of the larger inner suburban office markets in Adelaide (after the fringe office market along Greenhill Road, Fullarton Road and Dequetteville Terrace).

This recent development activity suggests a reasonable level of demand for the existing mix of commercial offices and medical consulting rooms. Older, poor quality space is being replaced by modern space that meets the needs of today‟s tenants. Given this healthy level of development activity, there appears little reason to change the role or function of the zone.

There may be a minor opportunity for small scale ancillary retail development as part of a large redevelopment. For example, a small convenience shop or coffee shop may provide an ancillary function to a large office / consulting room development on a catalyst site.

We certainly do not see a need to extend major retail activity into Melbourne Street West. Lower North Adelaide is well served by retail activity along Melbourne Street East and future demand can readily be catered for in the Main Street (Melbourne East) Zone. Furthermore, recent development activity suggests a reasonable level of demand for the existing mix of commercial offices and medical consulting rooms. Given this healthy level of development activity / re-investment, there appears little reason to change the role or function of the zone.


6 Policy Interventions

This section highlights a variety of public sector interventions aimed at either protecting or encouraging local retail services. We have split the discussion into planning policy approaches and other non-planning policy interventions aimed at supporting / encouraging local retail services.

The desire to retain a reasonable level of local retail services has been primarily raised in relation to Hutt Street, with concern that local retailing may be pushed out of the location by other retail / services that service a much wider market. Specific reference is made to how these policy interventions may be relevant to Hutt Street, but they may be equally relevant to other main streets including O‟Connell Street and Melbourne Street East.

6.1 Public Sector Interventions (Planning Policy)

This section highlights a variety of policy approaches aimed at either protecting or encouraging local retail services.

Support for Local Shopping: Islington Council (UK)

Islington Council in London aims to protect its local shopping through a variety of ways. Under its Unitary Development Plan (UDP), Islington has a number of planning policies, one of which is “Shopping and Town Centres”.

The overriding strategic policy is:

To maintain and support local shopping to serve the needs of residents, workers and visitors.

The key mechanism that Council aims to control is the change of use from a retail use to a non-retail use, particularly in areas designated as a “protected shopping area”. Cafes and restaurants are defined as non-retail uses. The policy does not prohibit the change of use from say a retail shop to a café, but the existing supply of local shops will be considered in the assessment with the aim of ensuring an adequate supply of local shops is maintained.

Islington define key local shops as comprising butcher, baker, greengrocer, grocer/supermarket, newsagent/confectioner/tobacconist, chemist, post office, off-licenses, dry cleaners and fishmongers.

Relevance to Hutt Street

There has been limited evidence of a loss of local shopping facilities in Hutt Street, although there is evidence of the number of cafes and restaurants growing over time. This has not reached a level where it dominates Hutt Street to the detriment of local shopping services. In fact there are quite a few vacant tenancies at ground floor level, suggesting that there is not a major barrier to entry for local shops due to competing forces. Our view is that the asking rent for these premises is also quite reasonable when compared to other main streets / city locations such as O‟Connell Street, King William Road and Rundle Street.

The addition of two IGA grocery stores in Hutt Street since the 1999 Retail Survey is an indication that local shopping has actually improved rather than declined. Modest population growth (residents and workers) may see this trend continue.

Our view is that Hutt Street‟s diverse mix is an important part of its appeal, and the cafes and restaurants are a real feature of Hutt Street that has put it on the culinary map. While it also serves a local shopping function, there is no reason that it cannot serve many roles.


As highlighted by the Hutt Street Precinct Association:

„While Hutt Street and its surrounding streets feature a mix of retail and business services, it is the variety of restaurants and cafes for which the area is best known. People come from far and wide to enjoy the variety and style of one of Adelaide’s favourite eat streets.‟ (http://www.huttstreetprecinct.org.au)

Definition of Local Shop / Convenience Shop

Definitions for various land uses do not in themselves encourage a desirable land use mix, but some Councils have sought to be quite prescriptive in their land use definitions and then encouraged these uses in certain locations (e.g. as a form of complying development).

Some local governments have a separate definition for local shops, aimed at providing local shopping facilities. Typically this is aimed at small local shopping zones or providing a small amount of retail floor space in a residential zone. It therefore is not aimed at larger main street shopping zones such as Hutt Street, Melbourne Street East or O‟Connell Street, which are expected to attract a significantly larger range of retail and non-retail uses.

Examples include Hume City Council (VIC) and the City of Cockburn (WA).

Hume City Council Definition

Convenience Shop – A shop with a gross leasable floor area not exceeding 240 square metres that sells food for human consumption and which may also sell of hire other convenience goods. Activity on the site must not adversely affect the amenity of the locality.

City of Cockburn Definition

„Shop-local‟ is defined to sell only „foodstuffs, toiletries, stationery or good or services of a similar domestic nature‟ and to include a delicatessen, greengrocery, general smallgoods, butcher shop, newsagency, hairdressers and chemist but not a supermarket (where a supermarket is defined as a „self-service retail store or market‟ and considered to have as its main function, the sale of „ordinary fresh and/or packaged food and grocery items‟.

„Convenience store‟ is defined as a premises which sells convenience goods „commonly sold in supermarkets, delicatessens or newsagents …‟


Hutt Street is a larger shopping precinct that is expected to attract a wider range of retail and non-retail uses, including small supermarkets, cafes, restaurants and fashion tenancies.

Under the existing Development Regulations 2008, a shop has a fairly broad definition, and includes a restaurant, personal services establishments and retail showrooms. Restaurants, however, are separately defined and can therefore be treated differently than other shops in terms of complying / non-complying developments. There is no delineation between food shops and non-food shops.

While uses that serve the local residents may be highly valued, we consider the main reason there may be some gaps in the provision of “local retail” uses in Adelaide‟s main streets is due to insufficient supportable demand for such uses. Therefore a policy that encourages local retail uses by placing barriers to the establishment of other uses may effectively be placing too much emphasis on uses that are difficult to support. Furthermore, such policy may well be considered anti-competitive.

The Productivity Commission has been critical of highly prescriptive definitions, which it considers are anti-competitive.

http://www.huttstreetprecinct.org.au/


We would expect that an attempt to limit parts of Hutt Street for example to only shops serving the local market would be considered anti-competitive. Legal advice should be sought before considering any such changes.

Affordable Shops

Policies have been put forward aimed at providing affordable or below market rent tenancies in new developments. The Green Party in the UK has as a policy to “insist that 50% of retail floor space in all new developments is affordable space for local small businesses”.

Also in the UK, “The Portas Review An independent review into the future of our high streets”, undertaken by Mary Portas in December 2011, recommended that all large new developments have an „affordable shops‟ quota.

This policy was directed at out of town centre developments to ensure large new developments include some space for smaller retail units run by local entrepreneurs. In effect, this is similar to the requirement for large housing developments to include a proportion of affordable housing for lower-income tenants.


These policies are aimed at large new developments and would not apply to existing development. Even if such a policy was in place, it would not have an impact on Hutt Street, which has limited opportunities for large scale retail development. Existing asking rents for ground floor Hutt Street tenancies are considered relatively affordable.

Change of Use Applications: City of Westminster

The City of Westminster has five different categories of retail or “shopfront” uses, namely:

A1 Shops

A2 Financial and professional services

A3 Restaurants and cafes

A4 Drinking establishments

A5 Hot food takeaways

The five categories each include a range of uses within them. For example, A1 includes a broad cross section of land uses such as shops, hairdressers, post offices, travel agencies and dry cleaners. Changes of use within this category do not require planning permission.

Furthermore, a change of use from A3 Restaurants and cafes to A1 Shops or A2 professional and financial services does not require planning permission but a change in the other direction (e.g. shops to restaurants and cafes) does. This effectively provides greater support for shops than for restaurants, cafes and hot food takeaways.

Relevance to Adelaide Main Street Zones

The Development Regulations 2008 make similar distinctions to the above uses, with separate definitions for an office, consulting room, restaurant and bulky goods outlet or retail showroom. This provides the mechanism to assess these uses in a different manner.

While a shop may be the preferred use in the Hutt Street, Melbourne Street East and O‟Connell Street main street zones, it is a merit use rather than a complying use. Similarly consulting rooms and offices are merit uses.

There is also no distinction between a shop that primarily serves the needs of local residents (e.g. butcher, bakery) and any other shop either in the City of Westminster‟s planning instrument of the City of Adelaide Development Plan. Therefore, it does not appear that a change of use application would be required to change from one form of shop to another under either scheme.


There is currently a requirement for a change of use application from one form of land use to another land use, even one that may be considered more desirable. In this regard, the City of Westminster‟s planning instrument is considered less onerous should an applicant wish to use an existing office tenancy for a retail outlet.

Other Possible Interventions

Other interventions that have been considered, or could be considered, to encourage local shopping and a high quality retail mix that meets the needs of local residents include the following:

Reduced requirements for on-site parking for local shops. Most existing sites on Hutt Street rely solely on the on-street parking availability. Any requirement for additional parking for tenancies occupying existing floor space is likely to be an impediment to gaining approval and/or development feasibility. If the use is providing a local service, then this parking requirement could be waived.

Quotas / restrictions on competing uses – A common practice in lease negotiations with supermarkets in shopping centres has been for supermarket operators to restrict the landlord from leasing space to a competing supermarket. The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission ACCC has concluded this practice could be in breach of the Trade Practices Act. Similarly, a local council imposing quotas on the number of cafes or restaurants in a particular zone, or restricting a new tenant from opening due to its potential impact on an existing tenant may be seen in a similar light. Should such policies be considered, we would recommend seeking legal advice.

Productivity Commission Views

We note that the Productivity Commission has been critical of planning and zoning regulation and its impact on competition in the retail industry. In its Inquiry Report „Economic Structure and Performance of the Australian Retail Industry‟ in November 2011, the Productivity Commission highlighted a number of changes to planning and zoning policy that could improve competition. These included:

Reductions in the prescriptiveness of zones and allowable uses therein

Facilitation of more „as-of-right‟ development processes ( e.g. more complying development and development that does not require Development Plan consent)

Elimination of impacts on the viability of existing businesses as a consideration for DA and rezoning approval

Consideration of impacts on the viability of centres only during the metropolitan and strategic planning stages

Clear guidelines on alternative assessment paths, and

Disincentives for third party appeals.

6.2 Other Public Sector Interventions (Non-Planning Policy)

This section considers other options open to local government to encourage local retailing.

Encouraging Local Shopping: Islington Council (UK)

Again the Islington Council‟s (UK) policy relating to Retail and Shopping Centres identifies various interventions that may be considered. The Council is quite clear in recognising that planning policy alone cannot prevent shops from closing down or changing from one kind of shop to another. However, they highlight a number of actions and policy measures to protect and encourage local shopping, which are summarised below:

Council as landlord – Consideration of purchasing shops in protected shopping areas to ensure these shops are retained to support local shopping;

Environmental improvements – including traffic management, pedestrian amenity, street-scaping, accessibility, maintenance;

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Competition_and_Consumer_Commission

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Competition_and_Consumer_Commission


Supporting street markets – street markets can provide an opportunity for prospective retailers to test their retail concept without committing to a long term lease;

Support co-operatives, establish mobile shops, street trading or other measures which meet local residents‟ needs;

Financial assistance - support could include rate or rent grants/loans, improvement grants to shops, and environmental improvements to shopping areas;

Advice to shopkeepers / practical management advice through local business enterprise agencies;

Encouraging the use of vacant space above shops for other purposes, particularly residential use – this effectively increases the catchment and adds an element of vibrancy to main streets.

Parking

Lousy parking facilities only drive people away – town centres need to make it easier and more attractive to come and stay. (Peter Drummond: President: British Council of Shopping Centres).

Adelaide City Council provides a relatively high amount of on-street parking in the form of angle parking on both sides of the street, which partly compensates for the lack of on-site parking. It is essential for the viability of Hutt Street that this on-street parking is maintained.

Further opportunities may be available to increase parking in the precinct, although it is recognised that on street parking may compete with bike lanes, vehicular traffic, streetscape treatments, and outdoor dining for limited space.

Ideally, local residents would walk to shops. However competing shopping precincts provide accessible and convenient parking, which means that Hutt Street needs to provide a similar level of convenience if it wants to compete successfully.

Marketing / Research

Good quality research can be a valuable marketing tool for both consumers and prospective retailers. For example, surveys of local customers may identify gaps in the market, which could be used in leasing campaigns to entice retailers to consider Hutt Street as a potential location.

This is very similar to the market research regularly undertaken by shopping centres (often a mix of „exit surveys‟ of shoppers and focus groups to better understand what the customers like / dislike about a particular centre, what other centres they access, what shops they mainly visit, how much they spend, where they come from and what additional services they would support).

Essentially, main street precincts need to consider the marketing and research that a shopping centre undertakes in order to effectively plan for the future. This will be a mix of consumer market research as well as having good market knowledge of the local retail property market (retail mix, rents, vacant tenancies, competition etc.)

Rate Levies / Business Improvement Districts (BIDs)

As with Rundle Mall, a separate rate levy could be collected by Council and used to help fund projects / marketing efforts for Hutt Street by either Council or a Council supported traders association. Precincts that are the subject to such a levy are commonly referred to as Business Improvement Districts (BIDs). This is typically seen as a way to bring in some of the competitive advantages that a shopping centre in single ownership has over a traditional shopping district.

We would not recommend that such funds collected be used to subsidise rent for identified market gaps in the tenancy mix. Rather the research discussed above could be made available to leasing agents.

David West, in an article titled “Mix it with the best – Business Improvement Districts working towards sustainable streets”, discusses the role that BIDs can take in building a sustainable


retail mix, essentially following many of the tried and tested approaches that a single ownership shopping centre undertakes. These include:

Detailed research

Catchment area analysis

Coordinated leasing

Shop upgrades

Lease expiry data

Pro-actively seeking new retailers

Monitoring retailer performance

(David West: 2012)

BIDs place a much greater responsibility in the hands of the business community (those that are paying the levy) to deliver coordinated marketing and strategies aimed at improving the overall performance of the retail precinct.

Our view is that a BID is more likely to suit a larger district such as a regional city or CBD rather than a relatively small main street. However, some of the principles behind BIDs may well be applicable to the successful management and development of a local main street. In Australia, BIDs have been set up in diverse communities including Gosford (NSW), Canberra CBD and Fremantle (WA). The Rundle Mall Management Authority has some similarities to the BID model.

Precinct Support Program

Streets such as Hutt Street are an important element of Adelaide‟s local area economic development. They provide start-up opportunities for new businesses, as well as a community focus for the local residents. Support by Council for the local Hutt Street Precinct Association and other „main street‟ precincts in the City is currently through the Precinct Group Support Program.

This program supports the ongoing management of City precinct groups via annual grants of $20,900 per group.

Conclusions

We have identified a range of policy interventions that may be considered in order to encourage local shopping primarily aimed at meeting the everyday needs of local residents.

Planning policy interventions are not considered the most appropriate way to influence retail mix in a fine grain manner. Management groups, marketing and research may be more successful.

An appropriate retail mix that optimises retail trade is easier to engineer when a retail “precinct” is under central management and single ownership. Main streets such as Hutt Street are not in single ownership, but a coordinated approach via a management group such as the Rundle Mall Management Authority provides an opportunity to manage the zone utilising similar techniques to that of a centre manager.

Alternatively, traders group such as the existing Hutt Street Precinct Association may provide a collective voice for marketing the street. Council can support this function financially by either part funding the traders group or undertaking the research required to influence retail outcomes.

A key role for Council will continue to be ensuring the zone or Main Street is well maintained, that on-street parking spaces are readily available and managed to ensure frequent turnover of cars, and that marketing / promotional events (e.g. street markets, parties etc.) are actively supported.


In Hutt Street for example, we have noted that the existing population base is relatively small but future growth will support a wider variety of retailing. Hutt Street is then likely to attract more local retail shops, including a butcher, baker, gourmet shop, and a larger grocery store.

In order to support the Council‟s main street zones, we recommend Council consider a range of non-statutory policy interventions, aimed at:

Maintaining the street‟s convenient on-street parking;

Ongoing streetscape improvements to ensure a high level of customer comfort;

Promoting the Street;

Influencing retail mix via targeted marketing / research;

Supporting the local traders‟ association.

It is noted that Hutt Street, Melbourne Street East and O‟Connell Street all have a diverse mix of uses. For example, retail uses (including cafes and restaurants) in Hutt Street account for less than 50% of all non-residential floor area (DPTI; 2007 Retail Survey). Non-retail tenancies include banks, consulting rooms, travel agents, real estate agents, hotels, accountants and a range of other business and community services.

One of the appealing features of Adelaide‟s main streets is their relative diversity of land uses, which we consider is much greater than one would expect to have within a single ownership neighbourhood shopping centre for example. This retail mix has evolved over time and while each has a particular strength in cafes and restaurants, we do not consider this has been at the expense of other retail uses, such as retailers providing local retail services to nearby residents.


7 Appendices

Definitions

Primary catchment: Refers to the geographic area where the majority of retail sales from residents visiting the precinct are expected to be generated (i.e. at least 50%). In central city locations, it is recognised that a significant portion of sales will come from workers and visitors.

Retail: In this report, retail refers to a premises used for the sale by retail of a range of goods, a café or restaurant, or a personal services business such as hairdressers and drycleaners.

Specialty food retailing: Refers to all food and liquor retailing other than supermarkets and grocery stores and cafes, restaurants and take-away food shops. Typical examples include a greengrocery, butcher, bakery and liquor shop.

Estimating Future Retail Demand: Market Share Analysis Methodology

For each of the three Main Streets with retail floor space, future retail demand has been

estimated using a market share approach, The steps in this analysis are as follows:

The population in the catchment is forecast;

Spending per person is estimated, based on the affluence of the residents in the catchment. Within each of the main street catchments, the demographic profiles indicate very high income levels per person. We have therefore assumed above average spending levels per person;

Available spending is the population multiplied by spending per person;

Market shares of available spending are estimated. In a precinct such as Hutt Street with limited retail offer, the market shares are expected to be relatively low. However, we have assumed strong patronage by locals of the restaurants;

The proportion of trade that comes from beyond the residential catchment is estimated. This will include spending by local workers. The majority of spending is expected to be from “beyond the catchment” due to each precinct having a relatively high local workforce and destination appeal (primarily driven by its cafe / restaurant offer);

Total spending is the sum of spending from residents within the catchment plus spending from beyond the catchment;

Turnover yields are estimated – these reflect what is considered a reasonable turnover for a viable business, although it is noted this may vary considerably between retailers;

Supportable floor area is calculated (total trade divided by turnover yield);

Additional floor area that is supportable with each precinct is calculated.

Supermarket size

The size of supermarkets varies considerably. The following Table lists selected supermarkets in the City of Adelaide LGA as well as supermarkets in inner suburbs as a comparison.

In this report, we have assumed the following:

Small supermarkets: Less than 1,000sqm;

Medium supermarkets: 1,000sqm-2,499sqm;

Large supermarkets: 2,500sqm and over.

It is noted, however, that large “full-line” supermarkets, providing a full range of supermarket items are typically over 3,000sqm and regularly exceed 4,000sqm.


Table 13: Selected Supermarket Floor Areas, Adelaide and Near Adelaide

Address / Centre Supermarket Floor Area (sqm)

116 Hutt Street, Adelaide Hutt Street IGA 400

232 Hutt Street, Adelaide City East IGA 325

33 Gilbert Street, Adelaide Gilbert Street IGA 620

Central Market Arcade Coles Central Market 3,433

North Adelaide Village Romeo’s Foodland 1,992

Torrensville Plaza Foodland 2,298

Northpark Shopping Centre Woolworths 3,400

Northpark Shopping Centre Coles 3,200

Unley Shopping Centre Woolworths 3,464

Unley Shopping Centre Coles 1,887

Forecasts: Estimated Resident Population

The forecasts used in this report were derived from forecasts undertaken on behalf of Adelaide City Council by id.consulting. Forecasts are available for seven precincts in the City of Adelaide.

Where the catchment areas used in this report differ from the city precincts, we derived the forecasts numbers for the relevant catchment by having regard to the growth rates for the appropriate precincts. The most recent Adelaide City Council forecasts are reproduced below.

Table 14: Population Forecasts by Adelaide Precinct

Precinct 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

SE Corner 3,816 4,111 4,486 4,879 5,274

SW Corner 1,268 2,109 2,520 2,990 3,453

CAD South 2,550 3,200 4,069 4,928 5,780

CAD East 2,419 2,834 3,721 4,652 5,716

CAD West 3,570 4,868 6,731 8,254 9,738

Lower North Adelaide 2,374 2,548 2,716 2,878 3,042

Upper North Adelaide 4,691 4,960 5,165 5,365 5,564

Total - City of Adelaide 20,689 24,631 29,405 33,944 38,565

2011-16 2016-21 2021-26 2026-31

Average annual increase 788 955 908 924

Source: forecast.id (id.consulting), Adelaide City Council

It should be noted that these forecasts may not take into account the additional development potential now available as a result of recent changes to the Adelaide (City) Development Plan. However, they do assume a reasonable uplift in population growth over the forecast period compared with the five years between 2006 and 2011. For example, the resident population of the City of Adelaide increased by 3,318 residents between June 2006 and June 2011, an increase of 618 per annum. This is forecast to rise to 788 residents per annum between 2016 and 2021 and to over 900 residents per annum thereafter.


Table 15: Selected Main Street Retail Environments, 2007

Retail Floor Area by Industry Classification

Goodwood Road, Goodwood

Henley Beach Road, Torrensville

Hutt Street, Adelaide

Jetty Road And Environs

King William Rd, Hyde Park

Melbourne St, North Adelaide

O'Connell St, North Adelaide

Prospect Rd Kilburn

Prospect Rd, Prospect

Rundle St, Adelaide

The Parade, Norwood

Unley Road, Unley

Average

Supermarkets 360 3,007 722 6,502 0 250 2,680 2,055 900 292 6,184 5,403 2,363

Specialty Food Retailing 901 1,527 362 2,612 696 537 1,018 815 1,900 924 1,930 2,636 1,322

Clothing & Softgoods 441 754 137 4,918 2,987 1,070 555 50 2,263 4,304 5,824 8,814 2,676

Household Goods 3,466 4,053 118 641 874 135 1,557 923 1,300 1,052 6,249 8,860 2,436

Recreational Goods 326 1,113 168 1,917 370 185 884 340 0 2,597 2,798 1,894 1,049

Other Retailing 1,254 2,662 833 3,366 1,961 870 1,309 1,824 1,114 1,671 3,291 5,091 2,104

Cafes & Restaurants 871 1,902 2,396 8,674 2,601 3,064 8,025 938 1,948 8,609 5,963 6,892 4,324

Personal Services 1,355 1,567 1,174 2,916 2,015 916 1,808 394 981 877 2,917 5,221 1,845

Total 8,974 16,585 5,910 31,546 11,504 7,027 17,836 7,339 10,406 20,326 35,156 44,811 18,118

Percentages

Supermarkets 4.0% 18.1% 12.2% 20.6% 0.0% 3.6% 15.0% 28.0% 8.6% 1.4% 17.6% 12.1% 13.0%

Specialty Food Retailing 10.0% 9.2% 6.1% 8.3% 6.1% 7.6% 5.7% 11.1% 18.3% 4.5% 5.5% 5.9% 7.3%

Clothing & Soft-goods 4.9% 4.5% 2.3% 15.6% 26.0% 15.2% 3.1% 0.7% 21.7% 21.2% 16.6% 19.7% 14.8%

Household Goods 38.6% 24.4% 2.0% 2.0% 7.6% 1.9% 8.7% 12.6% 12.5% 5.2% 17.8% 19.8% 13.4%

Recreational Goods 3.6% 6.7% 2.8% 6.1% 3.2% 2.6% 5.0% 4.6% 0.0% 12.8% 8.0% 4.2% 5.8%

Other Retailing 14.0% 16.1% 14.1% 10.7% 17.0% 12.4% 7.3% 24.9% 10.7% 8.2% 9.4% 11.4% 11.6%

Cafes & Restaurants 9.7% 11.5% 40.5% 27.5% 22.6% 43.6% 45.0% 12.8% 18.7% 42.4% 17.0% 15.4% 23.9%

Personal Services 15.1% 9.4% 19.9% 9.2% 17.5% 13.0% 10.1% 5.4% 9.4% 4.3% 8.3% 11.7% 10.2%

Source: DPTI (Planning SA – Retail Database 2007); Jones Lang LaSalle


8 Bibliography / Further Reading

Adelaide City Council, “Adelaide City Census of Land Use and Employment, 2011”

Adelaide City Council, id consulting, “City of Adelaide Population Forecasts, 2006 to 2031”

Australian Bureau of Statistics, “Census of Population and Housing 2011”

Australian Bureau of Statistics, “Household Expenditure Survey, Australia: Detailed Expenditure Items, 2003-04”, Catalogue 6535

Australian Bureau of Statistics, “Retail Trade Catalogue 8501”

City of Westminster, “Town and Country Planning (Use Classes) Order 1987

Department of Planning, Transport and Infrastructure, “Adelaide (City) Development Plan”, consolidated 25 October, 2012

Department of Planning, Transport and Infrastructure (formerly Planning SA), “Retail Database 1999 and 2007”

Flannigan, Nigel, “Submission to Productivity Commission (2011): Economic Structure and Performance of the Australian Retail Industry”.

Hume City Council, “Planning Guidelines for the Development of a Convenience Shop”, Amended April 1995

Islington Council, “Islington Unitary Development Plan (UDP)”

Portas, Mary, “The Portas Review: An independent review into the future of our high streets”, December 2011

Productivity Commission, “Economic Structure and Performance of the Australian Retail Industry”, November 2011

Property Council of Australia, “Australian Shopping Centre Database March 2012”

SA Government, “Development Regulations 2008 under the Development Act 1993”

West, David, “Mix it with the best – Business Improvement Districts working towards sustainable streets”, 2012

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/ProductsbyCatalogue/199D4ABEB52D6C49CA25711500787A17?OpenDocument

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/ProductsbyCatalogue/199D4ABEB52D6C49CA25711500787A17?OpenDocument

David Snoswell

Director, Research &

Consulting

L22, 25 Grenfell Street

Adelaide SA 5000

+ 61 (8) 8233 8843

[email protected]

COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2013.

This publication is the sole property of Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. and must not be copied, reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, either in whole or in

part, without the prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc.

The information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources generally regarded to be reliable. However, no representation is made, or warranty given, in

respect of the accuracy of this information. We would like to be informed of any inaccuracies so that we may correct them.

Jones Lang LaSalle does not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any loss or damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on this publication.

retail advice - amazon s3

Documents