putting the “globe” into u.s. globec

Dale HaidvogelInstitute of Marine and Coastal Sciences

Putting the “Globe” into U.S. GLOBEC

New Models and Methods in Support of Integrated Climate Research

Dale HaidvogelIMCS, Rutgers University

[email protected]


Outline

1. U.S. GLOBEC as an example of new approaches to Integrated Climate Research

2. Requirements for Pan-Regional Synthesis

3. Status and skill of end-to-end systems

4. Next steps


U.S. GLOBEC

The principal objective of U.S. GLOBEC research is to understand and predict the effects of global climate change on ocean

ecosystem dynamics


U.S. GLOBEC Study Areas & Principal Target Species

Georges BankCopepods

Atlantic CodHaddock

Southern OceanKrill

California CurrentCopepods

EuphausiidsCoho Salmon

Chinook Salmon

Gulf of AlaskaCopepods

EuphausiidsPink Salmon


U.S. GLOBEC Study Areas & Physical Processes

Georges BankStratification

Retention/LossCross-Front Exchange

Southern OceanStratification

Sea Ice DynamicsRetention/Loss

California CurrentStratification

Upwelling/DownwellingCross-Shelf Exchange

Gulf of AlaskaStratification

Buoyancy-Driven FlowDownwelling

Cross-Shelf Exchange


Goals of U.S. GLOBEC Synthesis

• Undertake regional and pan-regional synthesis and comparisons among U.S. GLOBEC study locations and international programs to understand the impacts of climate change and variability on selected target species and marine ecosystems

• Integrate process-oriented, observational, and retrospective studies through conceptual and mathematical models

• Bridge the nested spatial/temporal scales of these GLOBEC program elements through modeling to understand climates-scale impacts

• Develop tools needed to predict the responses of populations and ecosystems to global climate change and climate variability

• Contribute to management of living marine resources in an ecosystem context


U.S. GLOBEC Approach to Integrated Climate Research

Sea Ice

Individual-BasedPopulation

Models

ClimateModel

Mass BalanceNetwork Models

PreyFields


Climate Model Biases


ROMS NEP Grid (10 km) POP

SST (20 August 2000)


Multi-scale modeling in the North Pacific


Status of Three Regional Domains

Δx Now Next When?

NPac 0.18o 1958-1978

1978-2006

As time permits

NEP 10 km 1958-2004

Add tides

Soon

CCS 3 km 2000 2000-2004†

1-2 month

s

† Adjoint-based assimilation

Curchitser, Hedstrom, Powell, Hermann, Moore, Haidvogel


Domain: 20 - 73N, 115 – 210E

ROMS: 226 x 642 x 42 gridpoints

Subdaily (6 hr) T42 CORE wind and fluxes (Large and Yeager)

Initial/boundary conditions provided by CCSM-POP hindcast model

Forward run for 1958-2004—includes multiple El Nino’s, regime shifts, and 2002 cold intrusion

Outputs: Daily averaged physical snapshots of velocity, temperature, etc.

NEP Implementation


The 1976-77 Regime Shift SST Patterns

Fro

m S

chw

ing e

t al.

(20

02

)

Note: Left panel is May only; Right is Annual

1961-75

1978-96

-PDO

+PDO


2000

1997

1998

7-8 July2000

Northward Velocity – Newport Line - July

Well defined core of California Under Current in 1997, 1998, 2000; close to slope


2002

1999

9-11 July2002

Northward Velocity – Newport Line - July

Weaker, more diffuse California Under Current in 1999 & 2002; not adjacent to slope


Next Steps

1. Fully integrate ROMS within CCSM (underway @ NCAR)

2. Demonstration in multiple physical settings (pilot projects)

3. Engage wider community (e.g., CLIVAR, IMBER) (conference)

putting the “globe” into u.s. globec

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