THE GLOBEC GOALTo advance our understanding of the structure and

functioning of the global ocean ecosystem, its major subsystems, and its response to physical forcing so that a capability can be developed to

forecast the responses of the marine ecosystem to global change.

GLOBEC Scientific Steering CommitteeGLOBEC Scientific Steering Committee

REGIONAL REGIONAL PROGRAMMESPROGRAMMES

PICES- Climate Changeand Carrying Capacity

ICES- Cod andClimate Change

Southern Ocean GLOBEC

Small Pelagic fish And Climate Change

RESEARCH FOCIRESEARCH FOCI

1 - Retrospective Analysis WG

2 - Process Studies WG

3 - Prediction and Modelling WG

4 - Feedback from Ecosystem Changes WG

GLOBEC I.P.O.GLOBEC I.P.O.

Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Mexico, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Turkey, Ukraine,

USA, UK

Multinational Multinational ActivitiesActivities

National National ActivitiesActivities

BENEFIT (S. AFRICA]NATFISH (N. AFRICA)OFCCP (Eq. Pacific)

LIFECO (EC]TASC (EC)…

GLOBEC STRUCTUREGLOBEC STRUCTURE

REGIONAL PROGRAMMES

Cod and Climate Change Programme (ICES-CCC)This programme investigates the effect of climate variability on cod stock fluctuations, ranging from the effects of small-scale turbulence on encounter rates between fish larvae and their prey, to large-scale effects of inter-decadal changes in wind fields on circulation and transport of heat and young fish.

Cod catch at Greenland

0

100

200

300

400

500

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Land

ings

in th

ousa

nd to

nnes

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Tem

pera

ture

Cod catches have followed environmental trends in recent decades. Has fishing

limited the capacity of cod to respond to favourable environments?

REGIONAL PROGRAMMES

Climate Change and Carrying Capacity (PICES-CCCC)This activity develops a theoretical and mathematical framework which extends the concept of carrying capacity into the multi-species ecosystem domain. It addresses how climate change affects ecosystem structure and the productivity of key biological species at all trophic levels in the North Pacific.

Shrimp

Cod/ Pollock

Flatfish

Other

1.0

0.6

0.2

1953

1962

1971

1980

1989

1998

The community structure of the North Pacific has changed over the last decades. How is this affecting the functioning of the

system?

REGIONAL PROGRAMMES

Southern Ocean Programme (SO-GLOBEC)This programme is focused on understanding how physical forces influence population dynamics and predator/ prey interactions between key species.

1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 Krill

recr

uitm

ent

10

8

6

4

2

Mont

h

Area covered with ice 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

Antarctic krill has peaks of abundance on “good-ice years”. How do climate

fluctuations (and thus ice cover) affect krill and its predators?

REGIONAL PROGRAMMES

Small Pelagic Fishes and Climate Change (SPACC)The long-range goal is to forecast how the productivity of small pelagic fish populations will be altered by climate variability and change. SPACC will involve process studies, based on comparisons of standard measurements from different ecosystems, and retrospective studies built around palaeoecological and genetic data.

100

-100

-300

-500

Pacific salmon

Chilean Jack mackerelCalifornian sardineJapanese sardine

Peruvian sardine

European sardine

Alaska pollock

Catc

h (re

lativ

e un

its)

1910 1930 1950 1970 1990

Pelagic fish globally seem to fluctuate in synchrony. What drives this patterns?

GLOBEC Scientific Steering CommitteeGLOBEC Scientific Steering Committee

REGIONAL REGIONAL PROGRAMMESPROGRAMMES

PICES- Climate Changeand Carrying Capacity

ICES- Cod andClimate Change

Southern Ocean GLOBEC

Small Pelagic fish And Climate Change

RESEARCH FOCIRESEARCH FOCI

1 - Retrospective Analysis WG

2 - Process Studies WG

3 - Prediction and Modelling WG

4 - Feedback from Ecosystem Changes WG

GLOBEC I.P.O.GLOBEC I.P.O.

Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Mexico, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Turkey, Ukraine,

USA, UK

Multinational Multinational ActivitiesActivities

National National ActivitiesActivities

BENEFIT (S. AFRICA]NATFISH (N. AFRICA)OFCCP (Eq. Pacific)

LIFECO (EC]TASC (EC)…

GLOBEC STRUCTUREGLOBEC STRUCTURE

GLOBEC

Focus 4

“Feedbacks from Changes in Marine Ecosystem Structure”

General Objective:

To co-operate with other ocean, atmospheric, terrestrial and social global change research programmes to estimate feedbacks from changes in marine ecosystem structure to the global earth system

GLOBEC Focus 4, Activity 4.3

Social Impacts of Changes in Marine Ecosystems

Working Group Goals:1) To understand the interactions between

marine coastal communities and global changes in marine ecosystems;

2) To understand the capacity of these communities to adjust to these changes;

3) To understand the consequences of these adjustments for marine ecosystems.

Current situation

Disaster

Interactions of Environmental and Societal Changes

Marine EcosystemChanges IncreasingCoping Capacity Decreasing

Community CopingCapacity Marine

EcosystemChange

Coping Capacity

Situation resulting from global changes

Disaster

Marine Ecosystem Change

Modified from M. Brklacich, 2002. Pers. Comm.

Resilience

Vulnerability

Several issues complicate study of these interactions:

1. Scale• What are the scales at which marine ecosystems and coastal

communities interact?• What are the scales of environmental change compared with scales on

which humans have the ability to change and adapt.• How to move between scales when the drivers are global but the

impacts local?

2. Knowledge• Open” and “Closed” knowledge systems – e.g. publicly available, local

knowledge, or group-based. • How best to exchange and to incorporate scientific and local

knowledge into decision-making?

3. Values• How to assign value to ecosystem states, e.g. is an system which

supports Atlantic cod inherently better than one that supports northern shrimp?

Source:The Newfoundland Fishery: A Descriptive AnalysisNoel Roy (Memorial University)Symposium on the Efficiency of North Atlantic Fisheries; Iceland, September 12-13, 1997http://www.ucs.mun.ca/~noelroy/NfFishery.text.html

Example case study: Atlantic cod in NewfoundlandExample case study: Atlantic cod in Newfoundland

The collapse of cod has been severe social disruption in Newfoundland. In addition to the social displacements, there have been changes in the ways that coastal communities use the marine ecosystems:

• have expanded into previously un-fished species, • have expanded into new locations,• are using previous fishing grounds for species other than

cod.

Result is potential for significant negative impacts on the marine ecosystem, and on the recovery of cod.

Working Group Approach

• Develop a review/appraisal paper on the topic “What are the impacts of marine ecosystem changes on coastal communities?”. Case studies might include: Peru and changes induced by El Nino oscillations; NW Atlantic groundfish collapses

• Explore “significant issues”, starting with “Scale” (a MS has been submitted)

• Develop models coupling marine ecosystem changes with the socio-economic system.

• Develop active links with other relevant programs, e.g. GECaFS, by exploring these issues for the marine ecosystems of Peru, Chile and Ecuador; or possibly the Caribbean?

USACanadaMexicoPeruChileBrazilAngolaNamibiaSouth AfricaMoroccoMauritaniaSenegalAustraliaNew ZealandNew CaledoniaJapanKoreaChinaRussiaUkraineTurkeySpainPortugalItalyGermanyFranceUKNetherlandsDenmarkNorway

Countries participating in GLOBEC activities at national or Regional level

For more information: Contact Manuel Barange For more information: Contact Manuel Barange (GLOBEC Executive Officer), globec@pml.ac.uk, or (GLOBEC Executive Officer), globec@pml.ac.uk, or

Ian Perry (Focus 4 co-chair), Perryi@pac.dfo-Ian Perry (Focus 4 co-chair), Perryi@pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca.mpo.gc.ca. www.globec.orgwww.globec.org