Synthesis in U.S. GLOBEC

Synthesis and Comparative Analysis In U.S. GLOBEC

Goal: Develop strategies for synthesis and integrationof U.S. GLOBEC regional studies and develop approachesto comparative analysis among U.S. GLOBEC regional studies and related national and international programs.Comparative studies include contrasts among related species with regions, among regions, and across system types and processes.

Georges BankStratificationRetention/LossCross-Front Exchange

Southern OceanSea Ice DynamicsStratificationRetention

Gulf of AlaskaBuoyancy FlowDownwellingCross-Shelf TransportStratification

California CurrentUpwelling/downwellingCross-Shelf TransportAlongshore TransportRetentionStratification

Physical Processes Studied

Georges BankCalanoid CopepodsCodHaddock

Southern OceanEuphausa superba

Gulf of AlaskaCalanoid CopepodsEuphausiidsPink Salmon

California CurrentCalanoid CopepodsEuphausiidsCoho SalmonChinook Salmon

Principal Target Species

Some Organizing Themes for GLOBEC Synthesis & Comparative Analysis

• Large-scale Atmospheric Forcing and Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics

•Retention and Dispersal and the Role of Topographic Control of Circulation•Top Down-Bottom Up Controls on Production and the Trophic Cascade Hypothesis•Life History Strategies in Variable Environments•Importance of Basin-Scale Processes

Atmospheric Forcing

OceanDynamics

Biological Response

Ice CoverIce CoverWaterTemperature

WaterTemperature

Wind Speed& DirectionWind Speed& Direction

Precipitation& Runoff

Precipitation& Runoff

Wind-drivenCurrents

Wind-drivenCurrents

SalinitySalinity

Buoyancy-driven FlowBuoyancy-driven Flow

Stratification & Fronts

Stratification & Fronts

UpwellingDownwelling

UpwellingDownwelling

PrimaryProduction

PrimaryProduction

SecondaryProductionSecondaryProduction

Fish Recruitment& Production

Fish Recruitment& Production

Fishery Yield

Fishery Yield

TurbulentMixing

TurbulentMixing

AtmosphericTemperatureAtmosphericTemperature

Modeling

Retrospective Analysis

Process Studies Broad-ScaleObservations

Technological Innovation

U.S. GLOBEC Synthesis Activities

- Framework for integrating process-oriented, broad/meso- scale, and retrospective studies in conceptual and mathematical models

-Bridge spatial and temporal scales of GLOBEC studies to understand climate-scale impacts

- Develop predictions of ecosystem response to climate change and variability

- Synthesis within regional U.S. GLOBEC study locations and program as a whole

Space (m)

Retrospective AnalysisBroad-Scale ObservationsProcess-Oriented Studies

10-4 10-2 100 102

104 106 108 1010

10

10

10

10

10

10

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

mm cm m km 100 km 1,000,000 km

min

hour

day

weekmonth

year

decade

century

millennium

TurbulentMixing

TurbulentDiffusion

Upwelling

GyresEnso Events

Currents &Fronts (l)

Currents (w)

Fronts (w)

ThermohalineConveyor Circulation

Predation Events

Egg/larval Dispersal

AdultDispersal

Modeling

Detailed process models,IBMs, structured populationmodels, behavioral models.

TheoryLiterature Experiments

ObservationsData assimilation

Lower trophiclevel models

Simplified biological models of target species

Grand

challenge

Basic u

nderstan

din

g ofm

echanism

s and

processes

3D coupled models

Climate changeFisheries

GLOBEC Perspective

Courtesy Cisco Werner

Courtesy Dale Haidvogel

Comparative Analysis in U.S GLOBEC

- Extract broader lessons of ecosystem response to climate change and variability

- Compare across systems and system types

- Compare across taxa

Physical Process

Euphausiids

Calanoids

Gadoids

Salmonids

Stratification Retention/Loss

Upwelling/Downwelling

Cross-ShelfTransport

GB, CCCGOA

TaxaGB, CCCGOA

CC, CGOA CC, CGOA

CC, CGOA, SO

CC, CGOA, SO

CC, CGOA CC, CGOA

GB GB

CC, CGOA CC, CGOA CC, CGOA CC, CGOA

Georges Bank (GB) California Current (CC) Coastal Gulf of Alaska (CGOA)Southern Ocean (SO)

Response Variables for Comparative Analysis

Mean States, Trends and Variance over Time

•Physical Properties•Biological Properties•Ecological Properties•Model/Simulation Outputs

GLOBEC Ecosystem Comparisons

Comparison Mode

Within-Ecosystems

Time Series Process Studies

Between-Ecosystems

Time Series Process Studies

Longitudinal and Cross-Sectional Studies

Summary

U.S. GLOBEC studies share a fundamental philosophical and methodological framework. We can take advantage of this to foster synthesis and integration. The key issues are:

•Bridge spatial temporal scales at which GLOBEC studies are conducted to evaluate climate-scale impacts on marine ecosystems •Apply common modeling strategies in different U.S.

GLOBEC studies•Apply comparative method across taxa and

system types to extract broader lessons from regional GLOBEC studies

Integrative measures Phytoplankton biomass and floristics Secondary production rates, by species and size classes Production per unit sea surface area at different trophic levels Patchiness of organisms Microzooplankton grazing by dilution experiments Stable isotope assessment of trophic levels Predation pressure by different predator guilds (carnivorous zooplankton, zooplanktivorous fish, birds, and mammals) Definition of strong /weak predator-prey linkages Trophic cascade effects

Regime shifts, as defined by both biological and physical characteristics

! conceptual models;! simple correlations;! various types of paired comparisons, including both parametric and non-parametric

techniques;! other bivariate statistics;! time series analysis, incorporating lags and transfer functions as needed;! multivariate analyses such as principal components analysis, discriminant analysis, and

other types of pattern analysis;! meta-analysis; and! mathematical models including both descriptive and predictive models; biological,

physical, and coupled bio-physical models; ranging in scope from single-species orsingle physical phenomenon to integrated “ecosystem” models.

Analytical Methods

Goal of Comparative Analysis in GLOBEC

To Extract Broader Lessons of Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems through Comparison of Responses to Environmental Forcing at the Ecosystem, Community and Population Levels in Order to Facilitate Prediction and Analysis