Manuel Barange, GLOBEC IPO. Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth

PL1 3DH, UK. M.barange@pml.ac.uk, www.globec.org

GLOBEC, Focus 4 and SPACC…

GOAL: “To advance our understanding of the structure and functioning of the global ocean ecosystem, its major subsystems,

and its response to physical forcing so that a capability can be developed to forecast the responses of the marine ecosystem to

global change”.

GLOBEC’s Objectives:• 1- To better understand how multiscale physical-

environmental processes force large-scale changes in marine ecosystems

• 2- To determine the relationship between structure and dynamics in a variety of oceanic systems which typify significant components of the global ocean ecosystem

• 4- To determine how changing marine ecosystems will affect the global earth system by identifying and quantifying feedback mechanisms

• 3- To determine the impacts of global change on stock dynamics using coupled physical, chemical and biological models linked to appropriate observation systems

GLOBEC FOCUSES ON ECOSYSTEM SCIENCE

• …underpinned by the belief that understanding the role of variability in the functioning of marine ecosystems is essential to manage marine living resources.

Reykjavik Declaration on Responsible Fisheries in the Marine Ecosystem (FAO 2001): signed by over 100 fishing nations and committing them to undertake research in pursue of Ecosystem-Based-Fisheries-

Management

… YET ASPIRES TO BE POLICY RELEVANT

… we will undertake to...:...identify and describe the structure, components

and functioning of relevant marine ecosystems, diet composition and food webs, species interactions and predator-prey relationships, the role of habitat and the biological, physical and oceanographic factors

affecting ecosystem stability and resilience (in other words: GLOBEC research);

USACanadaMexicoPeruChileBrazilAngolaNamibiaSouth AfricaMoroccoMauritaniaSenegalAustraliaNew ZealandNew CaledoniaJapanKoreaChinaRussiaUkraineTurkeySpainPortugalItalyGermanyFranceUKNetherlandsDenmarkNorway

Countries participating in GLOBEC activities at national, multinational or

Regional level

GLOBEC Scientific Steering CommitteeGLOBEC Scientific Steering Committee

REGIONAL PROGRAMMESREGIONAL PROGRAMMES

o PICES-GLOBEC Climate Change and Carrying Capacity

oICES-GLOBEC Cod and Climate Change

oSouthern Ocean GLOBEC

oSmall Pelagic fish And Climate Change (SPACC)

In preparation:- Large Pelagics- Sub-Arctic Ecosystems

RESEARCH FOCIRESEARCH FOCI

o Retrospective Analysis Working Group

o Process Studies WG

o Prediction and Modelling WG

oFeedback from Ecosystem Changes WG

GLOBEC GLOBEC InternationalInternational

ProjectProjectOfficeOffice

National / National / Multinational Multinational

ActivitiesActivities

GLOBEC STRUCTUREGLOBEC STRUCTURE

Climate Change and Carrying Climate Change and Carrying Capacity (PICES-CCCC)Capacity (PICES-CCCC)

1979

Shrimp

Cod/ Pollock

Flatfish

Other

1.0

0.6

0.2

1953

1962

1971

1980

1989

1998

Cod and Climate Change Programme Cod and Climate Change Programme (ICES-CCC)(ICES-CCC)

Southern Ocean Programme (SO-GLOBEC)Southern Ocean Programme (SO-GLOBEC)

1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950

2

1

0

-1

-2

Sta

ndar

dise

d B

lue

fin

tuna

num

bers

Ravier & Fromentin 2001: ICES J Mar Sci 58

- 60

- 50

- 40

- 30

- 20

- 10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60- 20- 100102030405060708090100110120130140150160170180- 170- 160- 150- 140- 130- 120- 110- 100- 90- 80- 70- 60- 50-40- 30- 20

- 20- 100102030405060708090100110120130140150160170180- 170- 160- 150- 140- 130- 120- 110- 100- 90- 80- 70- 60- 50-40- 30- 20- 60

- 50

- 40

- 30

- 20

- 10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Total prises 90-97 8000YFTSKJ

BFTALB

BET

CLIMATE IMPACTS ON OCEANIC TOP PREDATORS (CLIOTOP). Leader: P Lehodey,

New Caledonia; O Maury, France

ECOSYSTEM STUDIES OF SUBARCTIC SEAS (ESAS). Leader: G

Hunt, USA

Small Pelagic Fishes and Climate Change (SPACC)Small Pelagic Fishes and Climate Change (SPACC)The long-range goal is to forecast how the productivity of small pelagic fish populations will be altered by climate variability and change. SPACC will involve process studies, based on comparisons of standard measurements from different ecosystems, and retrospective studies built around palaeoecological and genetic data.

Chairpersons : Claude Roy (France)/ Dave Checkley (USA)

Why SPACC?- Small pelagic fish account for 1/3 of world’s catches- Worldwide distribution- Abundant in similar environments (upwelling regions) - Major importance for the economy of developing regions- Vulnerable to decadal variability in environment

What are SPACC’s challenges?- The urgency of stock assessments- Luxury science for developing countries?- Geographical distance between scientists- Lack of administrative “home” - The science itself

8%

30%

14%

10%

14%1%1%

7%

15%

Flounders, halibuts, solesCods, hakes, haddocks Redfishes, basses, congeJacks, mullets, sauries Herrings, sardines, anchoviesTunas, bonitos, billfishMackerels, snoeks, cutlassfishesSharks, rays, chimaerasMiscell marine fishes

SPACC Structure - March 2000SPACC Executive Committee 2003J Alheit (Germany)M Barange (UK)T Baumgartner (Mexico)L Castro (Chile)D Checkley (USA- co- Chair)R Guevara (Peru)L Motos (Spain)H Nakata (Japan)C Roy (France- co-Chair)C van der Lingen (South Africa)

… to develop comparative integration activities, in support of existing field work, along four research themes:

Long term Changes in Ecosystems Comparative Population Dynamics

Reproductive Habitat Dynamics Economic Implications of Climate Change

Theme 1: Long term Theme 1: Long term Changes in EcosystemsChanges in Ecosystems

Lead: J Alheit/ T Baumgartner

- SUPPORT MONITORING RESEARCH PROGRAMMES, CURATE LONG TERM TIME SERIES AND PROMOTE COMPARATIVE STUDIES.

e.g. Workshop on Long-term changes in the NE and SE Pacific. Lima, Peru, May 2001. Funding: IAI-EPCOR and GLOBEC.

-PROMOTE THE IMPLEMENTATION OF PALEOCEANOGRAPHIC RESEARCH ACTIVITIES AND DEVELOP COMMON METHODOLOGIES.

e.g. GLOBEC Paleoceanographic methodology workshop. Munich, Germany, October 2001. Funding: Local.

Sca

le d

epos

ition

rate

900 1100 1300 1500 1700 19000

10

20

30 Pacific SardinePacific Anchovy

Theme 2: Comparative Population DynamicsTheme 2: Comparative Population DynamicsLead: M Barange (UK)

BiomassCatchesISPR

Biom

ass/

cat

ches

(M t)

ISPR (y-1)

1960 1970 1980 1990

05

1015

B0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Japanese sardine

-DEVELOPMENT OF GLOBAL COMPARATIVE STUDIES ON THE PRODUCTIVITY OF PELAGIC FISH STOCKS.

e.g. Jacobson et al. 2000. Surplus production, variability and climate change in the great sardine and anchovy fisheries. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 58: 1891-1903. Funding: SCOR and GLOBEC.

-PROMOTE USE OF ENVIRONMENTAL/ CLIMATE DATA IN FISH MANAGEMENT PROCEDURES

e.g. Study group on “Use on environmental indices in the management of pelagic fish populations”. South Africa, December 2001; Paris, December 2002 (GLOBEC Spec. Contr. 5 and 6). Funding: IOC

Theme 3: Reproductive Theme 3: Reproductive Habitat DynamicsHabitat DynamicsLead: D. Checkley (USA) and C. Roy (France)

-DEVELOPMENT OF COMMON TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE STUDY OF SPAWNING HABITATS

e.g. “Use of the CUFES for mapping spawning habitats of pelagic fish”. San Sebastian, Spain, February 2000 (GLOBEC Report 14). Funding: participants and SCOR

- PROMOTE COMPARATIVE STUDIES LINKING CLIMATE CHANGE WITH SPAWNING HABITAT CHANGES, AND DEVELOP MECHANISMS TO TRANSLATE THESE CHANGES INTO MANAGEMENT ACTIONS

e.g. “Small pelagic fish spawning habitat dynamics and the daily egg production method” and “Characterizing and

Comparing the Spawning Habitats of Small Pelagic Fish”. Concepcion, Chile. Funding: Local/ IRD/ BENEFIT/ SCOR/ participants.

Theme 4: Economic Implications of Climate Change.Theme 4: Economic Implications of Climate Change. Lead: Sam Herrick/ Dale Squires (USA)

-DEVELOP SCENARIO ANALYSES TO ADDRESS THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF CHANGES IN PELAGIC FISH PRODUCTION

e.g. “Workshop on the economics of small pelagics and climate change, Porstmouth, UK. September 2004. Funding: NOAA, SCOR, GLOBEC

GLOBEC Scientific Steering CommitteeGLOBEC Scientific Steering Committee

REGIONAL PROGRAMMESREGIONAL PROGRAMMES

• PICES-GLOBEC Climate Change and Carrying Capacity

•ICES-GLOBEC Cod andClimate Change

•Southern Ocean GLOBEC

•Small Pelagic fish And Climate Change (SPACC)

In preparation:- Large Pelagics- Sub-Arctic Ecosystems

RESEARCH FOCIRESEARCH FOCI

• Retrospective Analysis Working Group

• Process Studies WG

• Prediction and Modelling WG

• Feedback from Ecosystem Changes WG

GLOBEC GLOBEC InternationalInternational

ProjectProjectOfficeOffice

National / National / Multinational Multinational

ActivitiesActivities

GLOBEC STRUCTUREGLOBEC STRUCTURE

GLOBEC Focus 4

Feedbacks from Changes in Marine Ecosystem Structure

“To co-operate with other ocean, atmospheric, terrestrial and social global change research programmes to estimate feedbacks from

changes in marine ecosystem structure to the global earth system”

GLOBEC Focus 4, Activity 4.3

Social Impacts of Changes in Marine Ecosystems

Goals:

1) To understand the interactions between marine coastal communities and global changes in marine ecosystems;

2) To understand the capacity of these communities to adjust to these changes;

3) To understand the consequences of these adjustments for marine ecosystems.

Current situation

Disaster

Interactions of Environmental and Societal Changes

Marine EcosystemChanges IncreasingCoping Capacity Decreasing

Community CopingCapacity Marine

EcosystemChange

Coping Capacity

Situation resulting from global changes

Disaster

Marine Ecosystem Change

Modified from M. Brklacich, 2002. Pers. Comm.

Resilience

Vulnerability

• Climate variability • Internal ecosystem dynamics • Fishing• Habitat degradation• Pollution• Exotic species, new diseases

• Environmental change • Demographic Change• Technological innovations • Law and property relations • Policy Change• Relations of production/reproduction, • Gender and ethnic relations • Shifting values

Change in Marine Ecosystems Change in Fishing Communities

These interactions involve issues of:

1. Scale (of interaction, of adaptation, drivers vs responses…) 2. Values (of ecosystem state/ fisheries)3. Knowledge (science versus management versus Local)

collapse of Atlantic cod collapse of Atlantic cod stocks in Newfoundland and stocks in Newfoundland and

Labrador, CanadaLabrador, Canada

CLIMATE CHANGE + OVERFISHING

Case st

udy

Case st

udy

Consequences of changes:

- Severe social disruption (fishery closures, plant closures, unemployment, reduced incomes, employment volatility, outmigration, shifts in property relations and power…)

Policy response (ADAPTATION) :

- Fishing Moratorium on cod- Downsize fleet- Income replacement measures (incl. new quotas for alternative spp)

- Thus contributing to further marine ecosystem change.

Social response (ADAPTATION):

- Fishing effort expands spatially and ecologically

- Effort intensifies on traditional grounds

- Effort shifts across species, down trophic levels

Low Ecosystem Resilience

Some Fishers Resilience (capacity to absorb change)