power scenario india 2012

INDIAN Power Outlook2012

presentation by:

Nithin Haridas

Sales Conference, GCT Chennai March 05, 2012

Overview

2011 INDIA

• Home to 1.2 Billion people, 17% of the world’s population.

• FDI into India is ranked third globally.

• With this high economic growth comes a voracious appetite for energy.

• Widening gap between demand and supply due this meteoric growth.

• Needs to accelerate exploitation of natural resources.

• Long term plans foresee coal as the sector with the most growth potential.

• Currently about 35% of India’s commercial energy needs are imported.

Primary Energy

• GoI’s Planning Commission predicts dramatic demand increase for coal in TPP’s for the next 20 years.

• The bulk of hydro power contributes to roughly 25% of total energy generated.

• Biomass has maintained a constant value since 1980’s and had the major share in the final energy mix till about 2008 but is likely to diminish with other forms of energy becoming favorable.

• Nuclear energy contributes to more than 4000 MW.

• Renewable energy sources are on the rise due international pressure in reducing CO2

emissions.

• Fig 1-2 depicts the anticipated Total Primary Mix.

The Source

Primary Energy

The Source

Installed Capacity / Generation Mix

Power sector at a Glance

• As on 31/01/2012 CEA reports total installed capacity of 1, 87,549.62 MW of power

in INDIA

•The following are the splits:

• State Sector – 83, 605.65 MW, 44.57%

• Central Sector – 57,832.63 MW, 30.83%

• Private Sector – 46,111.34 MW, 24.58%

• The 11th Plan targeted an installment of 78700 MW (excluding RES) of power.


The following graph indicates the installed generation capacity as on 31 Jan 2012

34654

86015

3900 7760

38848

123759

4780

20162

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

110000

120000

130000

140000

150000

160000

Hydro Thermal Nuclear RES

Un

its

in M

W

Installed at the end of 10th Plan Achieved Proposed during 11th planAs on 31-01-12, Source: CEAAs on 31-01-12, Source: CEA


Sector wise distribution – Installed Capacity

38848.421%

123758.9866%

47802%

20162.2411%

Hydro

Thermal

Nuclear

RES

As on 31-01-12, Source: CEA

TOTAL: 187.6 GW


Thermal Split

Hydro38848.4

21%

Nuclear 47802%

RES20162.24

11%Coal

10481656%

Gas17743

9%

Diesel12001%

Thermal66%

TOTAL: 187.6 GW

As on 31-01-12, Source: CEA


Growth of Installed Capacity

4285

63636

69065

85795

105046

132329

187549

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

6th Plan 7th Plan 2nd Plans 8th Plan 9th Plan 10th Plan 11th Plan

Power

Linear (Power)

Source: CEA, 2012

Power Supply Position

The Gap between the demand and supply for Peak Demand over the past few years as per the Load Balance Generation Report by CEA is as depicted below:

93255

100715

108866 109809

119166122287

136193

8179286818

90793

96785

104009

110256

118676

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 (anticipated)

in M

W

Requirement

Availability

Power Supply Position

For Energy Requirement as per CEA LGBR 2011:

631554

690587

739343777039

830594861591

933741

578819

624495

666007691038

746644

788355

837374

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

1000000

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 (anticipated)

in M

U

Requirement

Availability

Power demand will outstrip supply well into the XII Plan.

Targets / Achievement

11th Plan: 2007-12

• The original target for the whole of 11th Plan has been scaled down to 62,000 MW from 78,700 MW.

• May end up adding only 52,000 MW by March 2012.

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000

Hydro

Thermal

Nuclear

RES

Achieved as of 31/01/12

Proposed during 11th plan

Targets / Achievement

The capacity addition envisioned during period 2011-12 is as shown below:

2080

14636

1000

1281

11079

0

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000

Hydro

Thermal

Nuclear

in MW

Achievement

Target

Achievements of the set targets is as on 31-Jan 2012.

• Planning Commission set a target of 17716 MW last year (2011-12).• Out of which 12360.5 MW has been achieved, i.e. 69.8%.

Factors Governing / Affecting Power Production

Slack in Power Production

• Thermal Power Plants projects are facing difficulty due to non - availability of Coal and GAS.

• Environmental clearances.

• Land Acquisition Challenges.

• Current transport infrastructure – especially coal (railway network) / pipelines for GAS).

• Investments in Transmission and Distribution Systems corresponding to planned increase in generation.

• Financial Constraints.


Coal is King

• Coal provides more than one quarter of the world’s primary energy.

• India’s coal consumption ranks third in the world.

267210

123470

105820

37920

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000

Total

Indicated

Proved

Inferred

in Million Tonnes

Coal Resources

Source: Ministry of Coal, 2009


Coal is King

• Accounts for 56% of installed power capacity in India.

• India’s coal demands are met through Coal India.• Annual production remained at 430 – 431 million tons for the last 2 years.• Already missed target production by 7 %.

• Imports expected to almost double this year.

• Demand and Supply gap is shown in the next slide• Gap is due to environmental clearances not accorded to mining projects.


Coal is King – Demand-Supply

504.29

546.1

582.32

656.31

713.24

454.49

490.02514.58

573.42591.78

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12*

Mill

ion

To

nn

es

Demand

Availability

* As per the latest assesment, Source: Ministry of Coal, GoI


Coal is King

49.8

56.08

67.74

82.89

121.46

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12*

Mill

ion

To

nn

es

Import of Coal

Import

Source: Ministry of Coal, 2012


Coal is King – Import Viability

• Import more viable to plants set up near ports.

• Landed cost is around $ 140 – 145 per ton.

• Total cost of power is more or less Rs. 4 per unit.

• Power production with indigenous supply amounts to less than half that cost.

• Rise in cost along with lower market rates are hurting many companies.

Future

Nuclear

•The department of Atomic Energy is mandated to increase the share of nuclear energy.

• The signing to Indo – U.S. nuclear deal has opened up opportunities.

• Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd. (NPCIL) – Soul nuclear power generator.

• Aim of increasing installed capacity form 4780 MW to 21,000 MW in five years.

• NPCIL already entered into agreements with various international companies to import fuel and equipments.

• GoI wants the share to of nuclear in overall fuel mix to increase from 2% to 25% by 2050.

Future

RES on the rise

• India faces enormous international pressure to keep greenhouse gases under check.

• GoI has been very active in various international efforts in climate change mitigation.

• National Action Plan on Climate Change (NPACC) – announced as way forward to reduce carbon intensity.

• India will have choose between increasing fossil fuel use and reducing its emission.

• The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) plans and promotes the development of all sources of renewable energy.

• By far the largest renewable energy source in India is Hydro Power.

Future

RES on the rise – Installation Split

Wind Power1306668%

Small Hydro293915%

Bio Power263214%

Solar Power481.4

3%

Total Capacity Addition upto 2012

Source: MNRE, 2012All units in MW

Future

RES on the rise – 11th Plan Targets / Achievement

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

Wind Power

Small Hydro

Bio Power

Solar Power

in MW

Achieved upto 2012

Targets for 11th plan

Source: MNRE, 2012

Future

RES on the rise – Power of the Sun

• The 11th Plan targeted only 50 MW of capacity addition in the Solar Segment.

• The previous slide shows otherwise; largely due to planning and announcement of new policies.

• GoI, through MNRE launched the Jawarharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM), as a by product of India's National Action Plan on climate change.

• JNNSM tries to make solar competitive through scale-up of capacity and technological innovation.

Future

RES on the rise – JNNSM

• Adopts a three phase approach:

• Phase 1• Tries to achieve a grid connected generation of 1000 MW.• This will span through remaining of the 11th Plan to 2013.

• Phase 2• Grid connected capacities upto 3000 MW to be achieved.• This could be more than doubled by international finance and Tech. transfer.

•Phase 3• Based on the review of Phase 1 and 2, and subsequent setting of target.• By 2022, 20,000 MW of capacity (both gird and off-grid) to be installed.

Future

RES on the rise – JNNSM viability

As ambitious as JNNSM seems to be, MNRE might actually pull it off owing to some of the following reasons:

• Foreign direct investment upto 100%.

• Renewable Power Purchase Obligations (RPPO).

• Build Own Operate.

• Build Own Transfer.

• Provision of Subsidies.

• Environmental Regulations.

In SUMMARY

• India’s power sector will see an increased capacity addition by private sector over the coming years.

• Coal will continue to meet India’s energy needs well into 2030 according to Planning Commission.

• The nuclear sector might proceed with joint ventures with NPCIL, since it has been opened to other Govt. owned entities.

• Renewable Energy Sector is on the rise and opportunities are widespread.

• Expansion of over all energy demand-supply gap due to increase in population and increased GDP growth renders tremendous investment opportunities in this sector.

THANK YOU

References

• Central Electric Authority (CEA), 2012

• “Load Generation Balance Reports”, Central Electrical Authority, 2005 to 2011

• “CEA Annual Reports”Central Electrical Authority, 2005 to 2011

• “MNRE Annual Reports”Ministry of New Renewable Energy, 2012

• “NPCIL Annual Reports” Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited, 2010

• “Jawarharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM) Government of India - MNRE -Report, 2010

• Annual Report, Ministry of Coal, 2012

• India Energy Handbook – 2011

• World Coal Institute – India “The coal Resource, a comprehensive overview of coal”March – 2009.

power scenario india 2012

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