POWER SCENARIO

IN

INDIA

RAHUL VIKRAMrahul.vikram@gmail.com

MBA “POWER MANAGEMENT”NATIONAL POWER TRAINING INSTITUTE

FARIDABAD.(MINISTRY OF POWER)

“POWER”

POWER or ELECTRICITY critical infrastructural component for multidimensional growth and basic human need

Reliable and quality power at competitive rates to Indian industry - important for global competition.

Clean and Green Sustainable Power – need of the day.

Energy Security

TOTAL INSTALL CAPACITY 147402.81 MW

THERMAL POWER CAPACITY 93392 MW

HYDRO POWER CAPACITY 36647.76 MW

NUCLEAR POWER CAPACITY 4120 MW

RENEWABLE POWER CAPACITY 13242.41 MW

PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION 740 kwh

PRESENT POWER SCENARIO(ACCORDING TO 11th PLAN) (as on MAY, 2009)

TOTAL INSTALL CAPACITY 2,24,907 MW

(CAPACITY ADDITION ) MW

THERMAL POWER CAPACITY 54693 MW

HYDRO POWER CAPACITY 15267 MW

NUCLEAR POWER CAPACITY 3380 MW

PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION 1000 kwh

DEMAND PROJECTION (UPTO:- 2012)

As per UN Methodology (Gross Electrical Energy Availability / Population)As per UN Methodology (Gross Electrical Energy Availability / Population)

Source: CEA

Growth Pattern

PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY IN INDIA

CAPACITY ADDITION PLANNING FOR 11TH AND 12TH PLAN

10TH PLAN –TARGET AND ACTUAL CAPACITY ADDITION

6

(MW)

Original Target 41,110

Capacity Slipped / Dropped 21,281

Net Capacity Addition from Original Target 19,829

Additional Projects identified during the Plan 8,320

Capacity Slipping from additional projects 6,969

Net Capacity Addition from additional Projects 1,351

Net Capacity added during 10TH Plan 21,180*

* Thermal -12,114 MW, Hydro – 7,886 MW, Nuclear – 1180 MW

S.NoS.No Major Reasons for SlippageMajor Reasons for Slippage

Original PlanOriginal Plan

Additional Additional Projects-Projects-ThermalThermalThermalThermal NuclearNuclear HydroHydro

11 Delay in supplies/erection by suppliers/ contractorsDelay in supplies/erection by suppliers/ contractors 26702670 220220 679679 33503350

22 Delay in tie-up super critical technology by BHEL (one Delay in tie-up super critical technology by BHEL (one unit at Sipat and one at Kahalgaon were replaced by 500 unit at Sipat and one at Kahalgaon were replaced by 500 MW units)MW units)

39603960

33 Non-availability of GasNon-availability of Gas 17131713 14501450

44 Delay in award of works mainly in state sector/NLCDelay in award of works mainly in state sector/NLC 14231423 222222 835835

55Projects not taken up/Escrow cover not given/financial Projects not taken up/Escrow cover not given/financial closure not achieved/funds not tied upclosure not achieved/funds not tied up 52785278 2323

66 Delay in clearance/investment decision (Hydro projects)Delay in clearance/investment decision (Hydro projects) 23912391

77Hydro Project - delay in environmental clearance, Hydro Project - delay in environmental clearance, geological surprises, natural calamities, R&R issues, geological surprises, natural calamities, R&R issues, delay in signing of MoU, Court Casesdelay in signing of MoU, Court Cases

31553155

88 Law & Order ProblemsLaw & Order Problems 500500 6060

99Nuclear projects included on best effort basis(otherwise Nuclear projects included on best effort basis(otherwise scheduled for XI plan)scheduled for XI plan) 12201220

1010 Adjustment due to change of sizeAdjustment due to change of size - 990- 990 9191

TotalTotal 1455414554 220220 65076507 6969*6969*

MAJOR REASONS FOR SLIPPAGES FROM 10th PLAN (MW)

Total slippage: 21,281MW* Out of a total additional capacity of 8320 MW identified during Mid –Term Review

Major Steps of Integrated approach Capacity Addition from Conventional fuel based

plants complemented by Renewable Energy based plants to extent possible.

National Electricity Plan based on Conventional Energy Sources with priority to Hydro and Nuclear plants

Strategies/ Initiatives being taken/ required to be taken for low carbon growth i.e. Introduction of Clean Coal Technologies (Supercritical Technology, Ultra supercritical technology, IGCC),

Other measures to reduce pollution i.e. Reduction

in T&D losses, R&M of Old thermal power projects, Retirement of old and small size generating units, Coal quality improvement

•Large emphasis on hydro development. Constraints restricting progress are large gestation period, high capital cost, Issues such as R&R, law & order etc. New Hydro Policy to encourage private participation in hydro power generation. •Limited dependability on gas based capacity - Availability of gas at reasonable rates being a constraint for gas based projects. During 11th Plan only about 6,843 MW gas based capacity envisaged. •Active steps to harness Nuclear energy on a larger scale being taken but contribution minor as yet. •Renewables.

POWER GENERATION-STRATEGY

POWER GENERATION-STRATEGY

•Renewable energy sources to be made economically viable- At present can play dominant role in meeting remote located demands where not economic to extend the grid.

•Coal based power projects expected to be main stay of Indian Power Sector for next 50-70 years. Continuous efforts directed at generating maximum energy from each tone of coal with minimum effect on environment

Development of Hydro Power projects

Plan PeriodPlan Period Hydro Capacity Hydro Capacity Addition (MW)Addition (MW)

Total Hydro Capacity Total Hydro Capacity at the end of plan at the end of plan (MW)(MW)

1111thth Plan (2007-08 to Plan (2007-08 to 2011 - 12)2011 - 12)

1562715627 5028050280

1212thth Plan (2012-13 to Plan (2012-13 to 2016-17)2016-17)

3000030000 8028080280

1313thth Plan (2017 - 18 Plan (2017 - 18 to 2021-22)to 2021-22)

3100031000 111280111280

1414thth Plan (2022-23 to Plan (2022-23 to 2026 - 27)2026 - 27)

3649436494 147774147774

26,783 MW36,874 MW

15,043 MW

CENTRAL SECTORSTATE SECTOR

PVT SECTOR

47%(34%)

(19%)

Total 78,700 MW

CAPACITY ADDITION TARGETTED FOR 11CAPACITY ADDITION TARGETTED FOR 11thth PLAN (PLAN (SECTORWISE)SECTORWISE)

FEASIBLE CAPACITY ADDITION FOR 11th PLAN – 77,070* MW

Thermal – 58,183 MW( Coal – 48,609 MW, Gas- 7,293 MW, Lignite- 2,280 MW)

Additional capacity expected : New Renewables – 14,000 MW: Captive – 12,000 MW

* Feasible capacity as per latest assessment

NUCLEAR, 3,380MW, 4.3%

THERMAL, 58,183MW,

75.5%

HYDRO, 15,507MW,

20.2%

11TH PLAN TARGET AND STATUS 10th Plan capacity addition only 21,180 MW. About 11,000 MW slippages due

to causes attributable to equipment suppliers and contractors.

11th Plan – 77,070 MW - 11,404 MW capacity already commissioned (Till date) - 65,666 MW (83%) under construction

- 85% hydro capacity under construction - Coal Linkage available for 96% of projects

- All gas based projects under execution or gas tied up from local sources

Additional 3,720 MW thermal projects under best effort category.

Additional 13,000 MW gas based projects if gas available at reasonable price

MAJOR ISSUES AND CONSTRAINTS TO BE ADDRESSED

Fuel AvailabilityRequirement of coal for 11th Plan – 550 MT; 40 MT equivalent of 68 MT of Indian coal to be imported Requirement of gas (90% PLF) – 89 MMSCMD; Availability at present- 36 MMSCMD; gas not sufficient

•Transportation for fuel and equipmentEstablishment of new rail links for coal evacuation from coal mining blocks Railways, Coal , MoP to formulate Fuel Supply Transport Agreement

MAJOR ISSUES AND CONSTRAINTS TO BE ADDRESSED

• Delays in clearances• Testing facilities to be increased and CPRI to play a proactive role• R & D

Power Utilities as well as manufacturing units to enhance budget allocation for R&D

To attract young talent

11th Plan tentative targets for grid interactive renewable power

(Figures in MW)

Sources / Systems Target for 11th plan

Wind Power 10,500

Biomass Power Baggasse Co-generation Biomass Gasifiers

2,100

Small Hydro (up to 25 MW) 1400

Total 14,000

Targets for 12th Plan likely to be at least 14,000 MW

12th Plan Tentative Capacity Addition Demand as per 17th EPS – Energy Requirement – 13,92,066 BU; Peak Demand- 2,18,209 MWSpinning Reserve – 5% as per National Electricity Policy. Capacity corresponding to 3000 MW and 1600 MW also worked out25,000 MW Hydro and 8,500 MW Nuclear as must run stations.As result of studies 12th Plan total Generating capacity 94,431 which includes 61,171 MW thermal.(28,190 MW PH, 15,495 MW LC, 14,800 MW Coastal) Capacity with 1600 MW S.R.- 81,570 MW; 3000MW S.R. – 82,970 MWFuel consumption(2016-17) – Coal 815 MT, Lignite 60 MTAll India Studies for 5% S.R: LOLP – 0.18%; ENS – 0.00% (Norms – LOLP-1% & ENS- 0.15%)

13th Plan Tentative Capacity Expansion ASSUMPTIONS• 17th EPS Demand – Energy Requirement- 19,14,508

MU; Peak Demand- 2,98,253 MW • Spinning Reserve - 5% .• Beginning of 13th Plan 37,014 MW Coal & Lignite

based capacity more than 27 yrs old. (5,634 MW capacity

upto 100 MW unit size and 31,380 MW capacity greater than 100 MW unit size) • Studies indicate 13th Plan capacity addition-

1,05,060 MW (Hydro-34,500 MW, Nuclear -8,000 MW, Thermal -62,560 MW including 6000 MW gas)

• LOLP-0.18 % and ENS-0.007 %, Reliability Criteria met.

MAJOR PROBLEMS OF POWER SECTOR

• Inadequate power generation capacity• Lack of optimum utilization of the existing

generation capacity • Inadequate inter-regional transmission links • Inadequate and ageing sub-transmission &

distribution network

Cont..

• High T&D losses, large scale theft and skewed tariff structure

• Slow pace of rural electrification • Inefficient use of electricity by end consumer • Lack of grid discipline

MAJOR PROBLEMS OF POWER MAJOR PROBLEMS OF POWER SECTORSECTOR

THANK YOU.