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Energy Scenario in India

With special reference to Electricity statusPresented bySindhuvasini TripathiIndia - Energy scenarioElectricity- the most important infrastructural input in the development & growth of economy Consumption of electricity- important Index of advancement of the country & standard of living.

Source: Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, CEA, Aranca Research, Assorted Articles Note: TWh - Terawatt Hours, GW - Gigawatt India - Energy scenarioWith a production of 1,006 TWh, India is the fifth largest producer and consumer of electricity in the world

Although power generation has grown over 100-fold since independence, demand growth has been even higher due to accelerating economic activity

Source: Central Electricity Authority (CEA), Aranca Research; Notes: FY - Indian Financial Year (April-March), TWh - Terra Watt Hour India - Electricity statusElectricity production in India (excluding captive generation) stood at 911.6 TWh in FY13, a 4 per cent growth over the previous fiscal.Over FY0713, electricity production expanded at a CAGR of 5.5 per cent.

The Planning Commissions 12th Plan projects that total domestic energy production would reach 669.6 million tonnes of oil equivalent (MTOE) by 201617 and 844 MTOE by 202122.

Source: Central Electricity Authority (CEA), Aranca Research; Notes: FY - Indian Financial Year (April-March), TWh - Terra Watt Hour Consumption of ElectricityThe estimated electricity consumption increased from 43,724 GWh during 1970-71 to 7,72,603 GWh during 2011-12, showing a CAGR of 7.08%. The increase in electricity consumption is 11.26% from 2010-11 (6,94,392 GWh) to 2011- 12 (7,72,603 GWh).

Source: Central Electricity Authority of IndiaSector-wise Electricity ConsumptionOf the total electricity sales in 2011-12, industry sector accounted for the largest share (44.84%), followed by domestic (22.01%), agriculture (17.30%) and commercial sector (8.97%).The electricity consumption in domestic sector and agriculture sector has increased at a much faster pace compared to other sectors during 1970-71 to 2011-12, with CAGRs of 9.44% and 8.43% respectively.Loss of electricity due to transmission has increased from 17.55% during 1970-71 to 32.86% during 2000-01 and it has decreased since then to around 24% during 2011-12.

Installation capacity & Utilization Various Power sourcesThe total installed capacity for electricity generation in the country has increased from 16,271 MW as on 31.03.1971 to 2,36,387 MW as on 31.03.2012, registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.58%.There has been an increase in generating capacity of 29,861 MW over the last one year, which is 14.46% more than the capacity of last year.

Source: Energy Statistics 2013, CENTRAL STATISTICS OFFICE &NATIONAL STATISTICAL ORGANISATION Installation capacity & Utilization Various Power sourcesThe highest rate of annual growth (18.91%) from 2010-11 to 2011-12 in installed capacity was for Thermal power followed by Hydro Power (3.79%).The total Installed capacity of power utilities in the country increased from 14,709 MW in 1970-71 to 1,99,877MW as on 31.3.2012, with a CAGR of 6.41 % over the period.At the end of March 2012, thermal power plants accounted for an overwhelming 66% of the total installed capacity in the country, with an installed capacity of 1,56,107 MW. The share of Nuclear energy was only 2.02% (4.78 MW).Hydro power plants come next with an installed capacity of 38,990 MW, accounting for 16.49% of the total installed Capacity.Non-utilities accounted for 15.45% (36510 MW) of the total installed generation capacity.Trend in Household Energy Usage - RuralAs per the 2011 Census, almost 85% of rural households were dependent on traditional biomass fuels for their cooking energy requirements. National Sample Survey 2009-10 reveals the continued dependence on firewood in rural areas for cooking, with percentage of households depending on firewood remaining at 76.3% in 2009-10 a drop of only 2 percentage points since 1993-94 even though the percentage using LPG has increased from about 2% to 11.5% over the same period. Trend in Household Energy Usage - UrbanOn the other hand, the incidence of dependence on firewood for cooking in urban areas has fallen from about 30% to 17.5% between 1993-94 and 2009-10 a drop of more than 12 percentage points. The incidence of dependence on kerosene has plunged from 23.2% to 6.5% during the same period a 72% fall, while the percentage of urban households using LPG has more than doubled from under 30% to 64.5%.In other words, the growth in prevalence of use of LPG in urban areas has been balanced by a decline in use of kerosene, in the first place, and firewood and chips, in the second. In rural areas, the rise in LPG use has been mainly at the expense of dung cake, followed by kerosene.

Regional Power CapacityThe geographical distribution of Installed generating capacity of electricity as on 31.03.12 indicates that Western Region (both central and state sector) accounted for the highest share (32.20%) followed by Southern Region (26.38%), Northern Region (26.97%), Eastern Region (13.22%) and North Eastern Region (1.22%).

Source: Energy Statistics 2013, CENTRAL STATISTICS OFFICE &NATIONAL STATISTICAL ORGANISATION INDIAs Per -Capita Energy ConsumptionPer-capita Energy Consumption (PEC) (the ratio of the estimate of total energy consumption during the year to the estimated mid-year population of that year) increased from 1,204.3 KWh in 1970-71 to 6419.53 KWh in 2011-12, a CAGR of 4.06%. The annual increase in PEC from 2010-11 to 2011-12 was 3.36%.

Source: Energy Statistics 2013, CENTRAL STATISTICS OFFICE &NATIONAL STATISTICAL ORGANISATION Indias Energy IntensityThe Energy Intensity (amount of energy consumed for generating one unit of Gross Domestic Product) (At 1999-2000 prices) increased from 0.128 KWh in 1970-71 to 0.165 KWh in 1985-86, but it has again come down to 0.148 KWh(at 2004-05 prices) in 2011-12.

Source: Energy Statistics 2013, CENTRAL STATISTICS OFFICE &NATIONAL STATISTICAL ORGANISATION Wholesale Price Index of Energy CommoditiesWholesale Price Index of Petroleum Products except High Speed Diesel Oil recorded a increase ranging from 19.65% to 39.12% from 2010-11 to 2011-12.The maximum increase was observed in Aviation Turbine Fuel(39.12%) followed by Furnace oil(36.19%). The wholesale price index decreased for Coke by 5.94% and Electricity only recorded a modest increase of 1.64% during this period.

Source: Energy Statistics 2013, CENTRAL STATISTICS OFFICE &NATIONAL STATISTICAL ORGANISATION Renewable Energy in IndiaAs of April 2013, total installed power capacity from renewable energy sources (excluding Hydro power) was 27.5 GW. This accounts for 12.3 per cent of the total installed power capacity and forms 6.5 per cent of the total electricity mix

Capacity addition of 30 GW is planned using various renewable energy technologies during the 12th Five-Year Plan. Wind Energy is estimated to contribute 15 GW, followed by solar power at 10 GW and the remaining by other sources

Source: Central Electricity Authority (CEA), Aranca Research; Notes: FY - Indian Financial Year (April-March), TWh - Terra Watt Hour Renewable Energy in IndiaWind energy is the largest source of renewable energy in India; it accounts for an estimated 87 per cent of total installed capacity (18.3 GW). There are plans to double wind power generation capacity to 20 GW by 2022.Biomass is the second largest source of renewable energy, accounting for 12 per cent of total installed capacity in renewable energy. There is a strong upside potential in biomass in the coming years.Solar energy accounts for 1 per cent of total renewable energy installed capacity. The countrys true potential for solar power stands at an estimated 5,000 TWh per annum

Indian Power Market Growth PotentialThe addition of approximately 106 GW to the existing capacity is expected to boost GDP growth to 8 per cent by Financial Year 2017.

Source: NTPC presentation, Central Electricity Authority (CEA), Aranca Research Note: GW - Gigawatt Hour Opportunities in Indian Power SectorAbundant coal reserves (enough to last at least 200 years). Vast hydroelectric potential.Large pool of highly skilled technical personnel. Impressive power development in absolute terms (comparable in size to those of Germany and UK). Expertise in integrated and coordinated planning (CEA and Planning Commission). Emergence of strong and globally comparable central utilities (NTPC, POWERGRID, etc.,) Wide outreach of state utilities. Enabling framework for private investors. Well laid out mechanisms for dispute resolution. Political consensus on reforms. Potentially, one of the largest power markets in the world.

Indian Power Scenario Moving forward

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