people centered initiatives feb 18, 2010
DESCRIPTION
Presents the potential energy savings associated with programs that focus on people as opposed to technologies. Explores strategies for engaging people in energy conservation and efficiency.TRANSCRIPT
MegaWatts on Main StreetA Carbon Finance Speaker Series at Yale
Presenting Karen Ehrhardt-Martinez in“People Centered Initiatives: Estimating the Potential for Behavior-Related Energy Savings
and why they are Necessary”
Brought to you by the Center for Business and the Environment at Yalethrough the generous support of the Emily Hall Tremaine Foundation
Human Dimensions Research Associates Smart Energy Initiatives through Applied Social Science Research
People-Centered Initiatives:
Estimating Potential Behavior-Related Energy Saving
Karen Ehrhardt-Martinez, Ph.D.Megawatts on Main Street Webinar, February 18, 2010
Human Dimensions Research Associates Smart Energy Initiatives through Applied Social Science Research
Opening Thoughts
• Leading an Energy Revolution• “Science and technology can
create much better choices.” (Chu 2009)
• We won’t get there unless we bring people back into the process.
Human Dimensions Research Associates Smart Energy Initiatives through Applied Social Science Research
Creating an Energy Revolution
A revolution doesn’t happen when society adopts new tools, it happens when society adopts new behaviors.
Clay Shirky, Digital Guru
Human Dimensions Research Associates Smart Energy Initiatives through Applied Social Science Research
Traditional Approaches to Efficiency
The “official future”
Add more productive technology
With a little behavioral change
And with a little imagination. . .
Imagine a U.S. economy in 2030 that is 70% larger than today
Human Dimensions Research Associates Smart Energy Initiatives through Applied Social Science Research
Saving Energy in a Hurry
• What is Possible?• In 6 weeks Juneau Alaska cut it’s electricity
consumption by more than 30 percent.• A dramatic conservation campaign resulting
from a sense of urgency and efficacy.• Post-repair electricity consumption
remained 10 percent lower than one year earlier.
• Juneau’s experience represents the effectiveness of broad mobilization to save energy.
Human Dimensions Research Associates Smart Energy Initiatives through Applied Social Science Research
Estimating the Behavioral Resource
• Current Consumption: Residential energy use and household use of personal vehicles = 38% of total U.S. energy consumption today.
• The Question: What is the scale of potential energy savings assuming people-centered approaches?
• The Method: – Identifying more than 100 separate conservation and
energy efficiency measures (all cost-effective) that could be taken in a short period of time.
– Apply a Monte Carlo probability simulation – allowing a random distribution of eligibility, participation, and saving magnitudes – we found an energy savings potential on the order of about 9 Quads compared to current use.
Human Dimensions Research Associates Smart Energy Initiatives through Applied Social Science Research
U.S. Residential Energy End Uses (2008)
End Use CategoryEnergy
Consumed (Quads)
Percent of Total
Space Heating 6.2 16.1%
Air Conditioning 2.4 6.1%
Lighting 2.3 6.0%
Hot Water 2.5 6.3%
Refrigeration 1.4 3.8%
Consumer Appliances 3.3 8.6%
Other Uses Not Specified 4.0 10.4%
Personal Transportation 16.5 42.8%
Total End Use Energy 38.5 100.0%
Human Dimensions Research Associates Smart Energy Initiatives through Applied Social Science Research
Categories of Household Behaviors that Impact Residential End Use
Ener gy Stoc k tak ing BehaviorHabitual Behavior s and
Lifestyl es
Install CFLs Slower Highway DrivingPull fridge away from wall Slower Acceleration
Inflate tires adequately Air Dry LaundryInstall Weather Stripping Turn Off Computer and Other Devices
Consumer Behavior
New EE WindowsNew EE AppliancesAdditional Insulation
New EE CarNew EE AC or Furnace
Cost
Higher cost / Investment
Low-cost / no cost
Infrequent Frequent
Frequency of Action
Human Dimensions Research Associates Smart Energy Initiatives through Applied Social Science Research
Range of Participation Rates and Savings by End Use Category
Major End Uses
Range ofPotential Savings
Range ofPolicy-drivenParticipation
ExpectedSavings
Space Heating 18-36% 3-40% 27%
Air Conditioning 19-47% 2-75% 33%
Lighting 10-53% 20-80% 32%
Hot Water 6-26% 3-75% 16%
Refrigeration 17-55% 5-75% 36%
Consumer Appliances 6-20% 40-80% 13%
Other Uses 12-24% 30-50% 18%
Personal Transport 14-33% 30-80% 24%
Total End Use Impacts 18-28% n/a 23%
Human Dimensions Research Associates Smart Energy Initiatives through Applied Social Science Research
Potential Near-Term Household and Personal Transportation Energy Savings
Category of ActionsPotential National
Energy Savings (Quads)
Conservation, Lifestyle, Awareness, Low-Cost Actions
4.9 (57% of total savings)
Investment Decisions 3.7 (43% of total savings)
Total Energy Savings~8.6 +/- 1.5 (22% of HH
energy)
Human Dimensions Research Associates Smart Energy Initiatives through Applied Social Science Research
How Much is 9 Quads of Energy Savings?
• ~9% of total U.S. energy consumption in 2008;• ~600 gallons of gasoline equivalent per household;• ~240 medium coal-fired power plants; and• Roughly equal to total annual energy consumption
of either Brazil or South Korea, and just slightly less than total annual energy consumption in the UK (~10 Quads), France (~11 Quads) and Germany (~14 Quads)
Conclusion? Even these conservative estimates indicate that a people-centered approach could result in significant energy savings – but they would require a meaningful shift in policy.
Human Dimensions Research Associates Smart Energy Initiatives through Applied Social Science Research
What are Behavior-Savvy Strategies?
•Targeting - people and actions•Informing - energy, technologies,
and programs•Motivating - norms, networks, goals
and commitments•Empowering - removing financial
and structural barriers and providing better choices
Human Dimensions Research Associates Smart Energy Initiatives through Applied Social Science Research
Targeting – People and Actions
•Social Marketing •Community-Based Social Marketing
• Home Weatherization?• Smaller Houses?• CFLs?• Air drying laundry?• Public Transportation?• Anti-Idling?
Human Dimensions Research Associates Smart Energy Initiatives through Applied Social Science Research
Informing – Energy Consumption, Technologies, and
Programs•Energy Consumption Feedback
The Energy Detective
Power Cost MonitorSavings: 5-15%
Human Dimensions Research Associates Smart Energy Initiatives through Applied Social Science Research
Motivating – Norms, Networks, Goals,
and Commitments•Communicating Social Norms
Savings: 2.5-3.0%
Human Dimensions Research Associates Smart Energy Initiatives through Applied Social Science Research
Empowering – Removing barriers and providing better choices•Choice Architecture
• Choice architecture is about creating a context in which people are likely to make better decisions – decision that will make choosers better off, as judged by themselves. (Thaler and Sunstein 2008)
• Inertia and the Status Quo Bias
• BECC Low-Carbon Lunch Experiment
Human Dimensions Research Associates Smart Energy Initiatives through Applied Social Science Research
BECC Low-Carbon Lunch
ACEEE Conference Standard
BECC 2007
BECC 2009
Meat-Based Lunch 90-95% 83% 20%
Veg. Lunch 5-10% 17% 80%
Meat production is responsible for 18% of GHG emissions – around 40% more than the entire transport sector (Pew Commission 2008)
Omnivores contribute 7 times the GHG emissions than vegans Large Indirect
Savings
Human Dimensions Research Associates Smart Energy Initiatives through Applied Social Science Research
Closing Thoughts
Revolutions don’t Happen without popular support and widespread participation.
Large Energy Savings can Come from Addressing the Social and Behavioral Dimensions of Energy.
Understanding the Human Dimensions of Energy Savings is Essential for Meeting Climate Change Goals.
More Social Science Needs to be Integrated into Energy and Climate Change Policy.
Human Dimensions Research Associates Smart Energy Initiatives through Applied Social Science Research
For Further Information Contact:
Karen Ehrhardt-Martinez, [email protected]