Partisans vs. Independents

• Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Dem., Rep., or independent

– [If D or r]: Would you call yourself a strong [D or R]?

– [If Ind]: Would you say you think of yourself as closer to the Ds or Rs

Partisans vs. Independents• As of 2008:

– Strong D 19– Weak D 15– Ind D 17 51 D– Ind 11 11 I– Ind R 12 37 R– Weak R 13– Strong R 13

Partisanship trends

Partisans vs. Independents

• When we lump independent‘leaners’ in w/ partisans, not much change in D vs. R distribution since 1984

• Slight GOP gain– some oscillation

• What about those independents?

Partisans vs. Independents

Trends in US Party ID; 1952 - 2006

Independents vs. Partisans

Partisans vs. Independents

• What do these responses mean?• Party Identification strongest predictor of

voting– learned early, social transmition– rarely changes over lifetime

• see F&Z figures

Partisans vs. IndependentsFunnel of Partisanship Causality

socialbackground

Party attachments

Values

Groups

campaignevents vote

Time (years & years)

Partisans vs. Independents

• Partisans– identify w/ party early– identification stronger over lifetime– partisans more interested in politics– Today, Party ID an even stronger predictor of

voting than ever • 90%+ of strong ID vote w/ party• hence, elections somewhat predictable

Partisans vs. Independents

• Independents– fastest growing group of voters ‘leaners’– ID as “independent” but say they are “closer” to

one particular party– Leaners may act more ‘partisan’ than weak

partisans sometimes• Vote party if forced to chose btwn D and R• Highly interested

Partisans vs. Independents

• Independents– but, independents less happy w/ choices than

weak or strong partisans

– more willing to defect if offered a 3rd choice

– Important aspect of dealignment• more independents, who are more volitile

Partisans vs. IndependentsDoes a party represent you reasonably well

Partisans vs. Independents

Partisans vs. Independents

• Anderson (+ others) 1980– 26% of Ind Dems, 14% of Ind, 12% of weak R

• Perot 1992– 23% of Ind Dems, 36% of Ind, 26% of Ind R, 25% of

weak Rs• Nader 2000

– 8% of Ind Dems, 6% of Ind, 6% Ind Reps– 0% from weak/strong partisans