2012 election recap - connect · pdf file2008 vs. 2012: obama vs. romney ... election,...

2012 Election 2012 Election Recap Recap

Presidential Presidential Election Election

And The Winner IsAnd The Winner Is……Barack Obama Mitt Romney

332 Electoral Votes 206 Electoral VotesPhoto Credit: New York Observer, The White House

2012 Electoral Map2012 Electoral Map

Obama‐332Electoral Votes Romney‐206 Electoral VotesSource: Huffington Post

Swing State BreakdownSwing State BreakdownBarack Obama Mitt Romney

• Colorado • Florida • Iowa• Nevada• Ohio • Pennsylvania • Virginia • Wisconsin

• North Carolina

How They Voted: How They Voted: Popular VotePopular Vote

Barack Obama 62,085,892 (50.6%)

Mitt Romney 58,777,012 (47.9%)

How They Voted: How They Voted: GenderGender

Group (Percentage of Electorate)

Barack Obama Mitt Romney

Male (47%) 45% 52%Female (53%) 55% 44%

Source: CNN Politics

How They Voted: How They Voted: RaceRace

Group (Percentage of Electorate) Barack Obama Mitt Romney

Caucasian (72%) 39% 59%African American (13%)

93% 6%

Latino (10%) 71% 27%Asian American (3%)

72% 26%

Other (2%) 58% 38%Source: CNN Politics

How They Voted: How They Voted: Age GroupAge Group



18‐24 (11%) 60% 36%30‐44 (37%) 52% 45%45‐64 (38%) 47% 51%65+ (16%) 44% 56%


How They Voted:How They Voted:Income Level Income Level



<$50k (41%) 60% 38%$50K‐$100K (31%)

46% 52%

>$100K (28%) 44% 54%


How They Voted:How They Voted:RaceRace‐‐GenderGender

Group (Percentage of Electorate) Barack Obama Mitt Romney

Caucasian Men (34%) 35% 62%Caucasian Women (38%)

42% 56%

African American Men (5%)

87% 11%

African American Women (8%)

96% 3%

Latino Men (5%) 65% 33%Latino Women (6%) 76% 23%


How They Voted: How They Voted: Marital StatusMarital Status



Married Men (29%)

38% 60%

Married Women (31%)

46% 53%

Unmarried Men (18%)

56% 40%

Unmarried Women (23%)

67% 31%


How They Voted: How They Voted: Party IDParty ID

Party (Percentage of Electorate) Barack Obama Mitt Romney

Democrat (38%) 92% 7%Independent/Other (29%)

45% 50%

Republican (32%) 6% 93%


How They Voted:How They Voted:Economic IndicatorsEconomic Indicators

Economic Conditions(Percentage of Electorate)


Good (21%) 90% 9%Not so good (45%) 55% 42%

Poor (31%) 12% 85%Getting better (39%) 88% 9%Getting worse (30%) 9% 90%Staying about the same (29%)

40% 57%


Trait Barack Obama

Mitt Romney

Cares about people like me

81% 18%

Is a strong leader

38% 61%

Shares my values 42% 55%

Has a vision for the future

45% 54%

Source: Washington Post

How They Voted:How They Voted:Personal TraitsPersonal Traits

How They Voted: How They Voted: Affordable Care ActAffordable Care Act

Should ACA Be Repealed?

Answer

Yes 49%

No 44%


2008 vs. 2012:2008 vs. 2012:Obama vs. Romney Obama vs. Romney

Obama‐332Electoral Votes Romney‐206 Electoral VotesSource: Huffington Post

2008 vs. 2012: 2008 vs. 2012: Obama vs. McCain Obama vs. McCain

Source: PoliticalMaps.org

How They Voted: How They Voted: 2008 vs. 20122008 vs. 2012Barack Obama McCain/Romney

2008 69,456,897 (52.9%) 59,934,814 (45.7%)2012 62,085,892 (50.6%) 58,777,012 (47.9%)Change(% change from 2008)

‐7,371,005 (‐10.6%) ‐1,157,802 (‐1.9%)

Source: CNN Politics, New York Times

How They Voted: How They Voted: 2008 vs. 2012 2008 vs. 2012

Group (Percentage of Electorate) Barack Obama ‘08 Barack Obama ‘12

Caucasian 43% 39%

African American 95% 93%Latino 67% 71%Men 49% 45%Women 56% 55%Youth (18‐29) 66% 60%Independents 52% 45%

Source: CNN Politics, New York Times, Washington Post

How They Voted: How They Voted: 2008 vs. 2012 2008 vs. 2012

Group (Percentage of Electorate) John McCain‘08 Mitt Romney‘12

Caucasian 55% 59%

African American 4% 6%Latino 31% 27%Men 48% 52%Women 43% 44%Youth (18‐29) 32% 37%Independents 44% 50%

Source: CNN Politics, New York Times, Washington Post

How Obama WonHow Obama Won• Developed and executed a vastly

superior Get-Out-The-Vote operation • Defined Romney early with very little

rebuttal from Romney campaign• Maintained high favorability with

women, minorities, and younger voters.

GOP TakeawaysGOP Takeaways• Need dramatically revamped voter

identification, registration, and turnout operation.

• Reach parity on early voting. • Enlarge tent to increase GOP appeal

to more demographic groups o Women, Latino, African American, and Younger

Voters.

Battle for Battle for Congress Congress

SenateSenate

The Senate: 112The Senate: 112thth CongressCongress• At the time of the

election, Democrats hold 53 seats (including 2 Independents). Republicans hold 47 seats and needed 4 to take the majority

The Senate: 113The Senate: 113thth CongressCongressD+2D+2

• When the 113th

Congress convenes in January, the Senate will be comprised of 55 Democrats (including 2 Independents ) and 45 Republicans.

Senate: Senate: Winners and LosersWinners and Losers

Senate Election Summary Senate Election Summary Democratic Gains Republican Gains

Nebraska

Senate Race:Senate Race:IndianaIndiana‐‐Democratic GainDemocratic Gain

• Incumbent (Defeated): Richard Lugar (R)• Winning Candidate: Joe Donnelly (D)• Losing Candidate: Richard Mourdock (R)

• 2008 Presidential: Obama 49.95%• 2012 Presidential: Romney 54.3%

Photo Credit: Indy Star

Rep. Joe Donnelly Treasurer Richard Mourdock

Senate Race:Senate Race:MassachusettsMassachusetts‐‐Democratic GainDemocratic Gain

• Incumbent: Scott Brown (R)• Winning Candidate: Elizabeth Warren (D)• Losing Candidate: Scott Brown (R)

• 2008 Presidential: Obama 61.80%• 2012 Presidential: Obama 60.9%

Photo Credit: Politico

Sen. Scott Brown Professor Elizabeth Warren

Senate Race:Senate Race:MaineMaine‐‐ Independent GainIndependent Gain

• Incumbent (Retiring ): Olympia Snowe (R)• Winning Candidate: Angus King (I)• Losing Candidate: Cynthia Dill (D)• Losing Candidate: Charles Summers (R)• (Likely to Caucus with Democrats)

• 2008Presidential: Obama 57.71%• 2012 Presidential: Obama 56.3%

Photo Credit: Kennebec Journal

ME Sec. of StateCharlie Summers

State Senator Cynthia Dill

Fmr. Gov. Angus King

Senate Race:Senate Race:NebraskaNebraska‐‐ Republican GainRepublican Gain

• Incumbent (Retiring ): Ben Nelson (D) • Losing Candidate: Bob Kerrey (D)• Winning Candidate: Deb Fischer (R)•

• 2008 Presidential: McCain 53.1%• 2012 Presidential: Romney 60.5%

Photo Credit: KNEB Radio

Fmr. Sen. Bob Kerrey NE State Sen. Deb Fischer

Lame Duck Wild Cards Lame Duck Wild Cards Defeated Retiring

• Scott Brown (R-MA) • Jon Kyl (R-AZ)• Joseph Lieberman (I-CT)• Daniel Akaka (D-HI)• Richard Lugar (R-IN)• Olympia Snowe (R-ME)• Ben Nelson (D-NE)• Jeff Bingaman (D-NM)• Kent Conrad (D-ND)• Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX)• Jim Webb (D-VA)• Herb Kohl (D-WI

Prospective Committee Prospective Committee Chairs for 113Chairs for 113thth CongressCongress

*If John Kerry becomes Secretary of State, it sets up a domino effectthat could see several chairmen shuffle committees.

Prospective Ranking Prospective Ranking Members for 113Members for 113thth CongressCongress

House House

The Senate: 112The Senate: 112thth CongressCongress• At the time of the

election, Republicans hold 240 seats. Democrats hold 190 seats and needed 28 to take the majority. There are five vacancies

• Vacancies to be filled on Election Day: CA-18, KY-4, MI-11, NJ-10, and WA-1

Generic Ballot Generic Ballot Date Democrats Republicans Advantage Outcome

Nov 5, 2012 47.3% 47.5% Republicans +0.2

Republicans retain House,

Democrats retainSenate

Oct 31, 2010 41.3% 50.7% Republicans +9.4Republicans gain House, Democrats

retain Senate

Nov 2, 2008 47.6% 38.6% Democrats +9.0

Democrats expand

majorities in both

chambers

Nov 5, 2006 52.1% 40.6% Democrats +11.5Democrats

gain control of both

chambers

Nov 1, 2004 45.4% 45.4% Tie

Republicans retain control

of both chambers

Source: Real Clear Politics Average

The House: 113The House: 113thth CongressCongressGains for DsGains for Ds

• When the 113th

Congress convenes in January, the House will be comprised of 194 Democrats and 233 Republicans. Though Republicans will retain their majority in the new Congress, there are 8 races that have yet to be called.

Retiring or Defeated Retiring or Defeated MembersMembers

Defeated Retiring• 23 incumbents were

defeated on Election Day (10D, 13R.)*

• Some well known incumbents who were defeated include: Joe Baca (CA-D), Roscoe Bartlett (MD-R), Howard Berman (CA-D), Mary Bono Mack (CA-R), and Leonard Boswell (IA-D)

• 25 incumbents will retire after the 112th Congress (14D, 11R)

• Some well known incumbents who are retiring include: Barney Frank (MA-D), Jerry Lewis (CA-R), Ron Paul (TX-R), Lynn Woolsey (CA-D), Edolphus Towns (NY-D), and Dan Burton (IN-R)

*Several House races are yet to be called, leaving the potential for more defeated incumbents

Prospective Committee Prospective Committee Chairs for 113Chairs for 113thth CongressCongress

**Dan Lungren is locked in a tight race but may still yet be defeated

Prospective Ranking Prospective Ranking Members for 113Members for 113thth CongressCongress

The Lame Duck The Lame Duck

Fiscal Cliff ItemsFiscal Cliff Items• Expiration of the Bush tax cuts• Expiration of the payroll tax cut• Expiration of unemployment insurance benefits• Expiration of the doc fix• Sequestration of $1.2 trillion in government

spending ($984 billion in reductions evenly split between defense and non-defense plus $216 billion in debt services savings)

• Likely need to increase the current debt ceiling of $16.4 trillion in late 2012 or early 2013

3 Fiscal Cliff Scenarios3 Fiscal Cliff Scenarios1. Go off the the fiscal cliff: Unlikely result because of the

highly negative impact on the economy and on both political parties.

1. Comprehensive Grand Bargain on tax and entitlement reform: Unlikely result due to complexity of the negotiations and the brief lame duck period.

1. Short-term punt with pre-agreement on Grand Bargain: Likely result. Short-term punt that sets forth process, timetable, parameters, and possible consequence for failing to achieve grand bargain. Pre-agreement could include targets for revenue increases and entitlement cuts – without specifying nature of the revenue or the cuts.

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