Independents vs. Partisans

Do political independents really exist?

Independents vs. Partisans

• Party ID results from early socialization

• But, are parties less relevent today?– fewer say they are D or R– seen as dealignment of party system

Independents

• Why care?– they determine result of many elections

– votes most moveable

– is there dealignment, room for third party?

• Two views– less informed, less interested

• swayed by TV ads, personality, etc.

– well informed “critical citizens”• don’t need party cue anymore

Independents

• A behavioral phenomena

• A socially desirable survey response

Partisans vs. Independents

• Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Dem., Rep., or independent

– [If D or r]: Would you call yourself a strong [D or R]?

– [If Ind]: Would you say you think of yourself as closer to the Ds or Rs

Measurement

• What are we measuring here?– 3 qs are used to make “7 point scale” of PID

• Strong R said “R” and strong• Weak R said “R” and weak• Ind, leans R said “Ind” and lean R• Ind (pure) said “Ind” and don’t lean• Ind, leans D said “Ind” and lean D• Weak D said “D” and weak• Strong D said “D” and strong

Measurement

• How much weigh should we put in the first Q?– “Generally speaking...?”

• How much weight should we put into how people respond to the follow up Qs?– “would you say you think of yourself as

closer...”

Partisans vs. Independents

• If we use “closer”, there are few independent

• As of 2004:– Strong D 17– Weak D 16– Ind D 17 49 D– Ind 10 10 I– Ind R 12 41 R– Weak R 12– Strong R 16

Partisanship trends

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http://people-press.org/party-identification-trend/

Partisans vs. Independents

• When we lump independent‘leaners’ in w/ partisans, not much change in D vs. R distribution since 1984

• Some oscillation, Dem gains since 2000

• What about those independents?– which way do they break?

Independents vs. Partisans

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Ind, Lean D

Ind.

Ind, Lean R

1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002

Partisans vs. Independents

Trends in US Party ID; 1952 - 2008

0

10

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60

195219561960196419681972197619801984198819921996200020042008

Democrat

Ind. Leaners

Republican

Pure Independent

Partisans vs. Independents

• What do these responses mean?

• Party Identification strongest predictor of voting– learned early, social transmision– rarely changes over lifetime

• more people socialized to be “Ind”, or to say “Ind”

• see F&Z figures

Partisans vs. Independents

Funnel of Causality

socialbackground

Party attachments

Values

Groups

campaignevents vote

Time (years & years)

Partisans vs. Independents

• Partisans– identify w/ party early– identification stronger over lifetime– partisans more interested in politics– Today, Party ID an even stronger predictor of

voting than ever • 90%+ of strong ID vote w/ party

• hence, elections somewhat predictable

Partisans vs. Independents

• Independents’ actual behavior– fastest growing group of voters ‘leaners’– ID as “independent” but say they are “closer” to

one particular party– Leaners may be more ‘partisan’ than weak

partisans• Vote party if forced to chose btwn D and R

• Highly interested

Partisans v Independents

• Leaners– Critical citizens?

• Pure independents– nothing there, apolitical?

Partisans vs. Independents

• Independents attitudes– but, independents less happy w/ choices than

weak or strong partisans

– more willing to defect if offered a 3rd choice

– Important aspect of dealignment• more independents, who are more volitile

Partisans vs. Independents

Strong

Democrat

Weak

Democrat Ind lean

Dem Ind. Ind lean

Rep Weak Rep Strong

Rep No 20 28 43 53 33 19 7 Yes 80 72 57 47 67 81 93 Source: NES 2004

Does a party represent you reasonably well

Partisans vs. Independents

Strong Dem.

Weak Dem.

Ind lean D

Pure Ind.

Ind lean Rep.

Weak Rep.

Strong Rep.

Continuation of current system 50 36 24 25 26 40 61 No party labels 21 32 35 41 34 27 11 New parties 29 32 41 35 40 33 29

Partisans vs. Independents

• Anderson (+ others) 1980– 26% of Ind Dems, 14% of Ind, 12% of weak R

• Perot 1992– 23% of Ind Dems, 36% of Ind, 26% of Ind R, 25% of

weak Rs

• Nader 2000– 8% of Ind Dems, 6% of Ind, 6% Ind Reps

– 0% from weak/strong partisans

Independents

2004 40 23 24 16 23 25 37

Strong Dem

Weak Dem

Ind, Lean Dem Pure Ind

Ind Lean Rep

Weak Rep Strong Rep

2005 95 82 83 58 82 89 100

Strong Dem

Weak Dem

Ind, Lean Dem

Pure Ind

Ind Lean Rep

Weak Rep

Strong Rep

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